IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.98B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.43
• Revenue Growth: -54.85%
• EPS Growth: -79.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 131
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.82
• Shares Outstanding: 87,581,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,375,525
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,319,450
• PEG Ratio: 6.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 23.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 130.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.63
• 1Y Price Target: $51.75
• Price Target Upside: 132.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.50 ▼(-3.50%Downside)

IDEAYA Biosciences' stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and net losses. Positive technical indicators provide some support, indicating potential short-term momentum. However, the lack of profitability and valuation concerns weigh heavily on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Clinical Results

Investors may be underappreciating the idea that median progression-free survival could meaningfully exceed the ~7 months observed in the single-arm Phase 2, indicating potential for better-than-expected clinical results.

Market Opportunity

Registry data suggest that the market opportunity for HLA-negative could be 3-4 times relative to HLA-positive, indicating a potentially larger market than previously expected.

Regulatory Approval

The company has aligned with the FDA on endpoints supportive of full approval for a pivotal neoadjuvant study in uveal melanoma.

Negative Factors

Approval Challenges

An accelerated approval opportunity, which the company previously highlighted as a possibility, is unlikely.

Data Disclosure

Investor focus on OS is unlikely to be fully addressed at the upcoming disclosure.

Market Uncertainty

Investors are understandably cautious on the de-risking potential of progression-free survival data on the overall survival full approval endpoint, indicating some uncertainty in the market.

IDEAYA Biosciences Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc., a synthetic lethality-focused precision medicine oncology company, focuses on the discovery and development of targeted therapeutics for patient populations selected using molecular diagnostics. The company's lead product candidates include IDE397, a methionine adenosyltransferase 2a inhibitor that is in Phase I clinical trial for patients with solid tumors having methylthioadenosine phosphorylase deletions; and IDE196, a protein kinase C inhibitor that is in Phase I/II clinical trial for genetically defined cancers having GNAQ or GNA11 gene mutations. Its preclinical pipeline includes various synthetic lethality programs targeting PARG inhibitor in tumors for patients having tumors with a defined biomarker based on genetic mutations and/or molecular signatures; Pol Theta inhibitors in tumors with BRCA or other homologous recombination deficiency mutations; and WRN inhibitors in tumors with high microsatellite instability. The company has a research collaboration agreement with Cancer Research UK and the University of Manchester to develop small molecule inhibitors of Poly (ADP-ribose) glycohydrolase; and a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Pfizer Inc. for Phase I/II study in metastatic uveal melanoma, skin melanoma, and other solid tumors, as well as a strategic partnership with GlaxoSmithKline plc. IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

IDEAYA Biosciences generates revenue primarily through collaboration and license agreements with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. These partnerships typically involve upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales if the partnered drugs successfully reach the market. For instance, IDEAYA may collaborate with larger pharmaceutical companies to co-develop and commercialize its drug candidates, leveraging their partner's resources and expertise in exchange for shared financial benefits. The company's revenue is also supported by research grants and funding aimed at advancing its pipeline of potential cancer therapies. However, as a clinical-stage biotech company, significant revenue generation is generally contingent on the successful development, approval, and commercialization of its drug candidates.

IDEAYA Biosciences Financial Statement Overview

Summary

IDEAYA Biosciences faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and consistent net losses. The company maintains a strong equity position, suggesting stability, but profitability and cash flow constraints pose risks. Strategic improvements are necessary for future growth.

Income Statement

The company has seen a significant decline in revenue over the past year, with a negative growth rate of 70%. Gross profit margin remains at 100% due to no cost of goods sold reported. However, high negative net profit, EBIT, and EBITDA margins reflect operational challenges and lack of profitability.

Balance Sheet

IDEAYA Biosciences maintains a strong equity base, with an equity ratio of 94%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, indicating minimal leverage, but return on equity is negative due to net losses, highlighting profitability challenges.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative, indicating cash burn from operations. However, the company has managed substantial financing activities, improving cash reserves significantly, albeit not enough to cover the free cash flow deficit.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
7.00M	7.00M	23.39M	50.93M	27.94M	19.54M
	Gross Profit
5.26M	3.17M	19.38M	48.83M	26.22M	-20.16M
	EBIT
-360.35M	-326.98M	-134.43M	-62.50M	-50.27M	-35.34M
	EBITDA
-357.95M	-326.98M	-130.42M	-60.40M	-48.54M	-33.96M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-306.31M	-274.48M	-112.96M	-54.81M	-47.53M	-32.27M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
692.51M	676.32M	525.11M	373.15M	368.06M	283.58M
	Total Assets
1.10B	1.12B	649.32M	387.97M	381.35M	298.27M
	Total Debt
25.97M	19.17M	2.87M	3.48M	5.18M	6.72M
	Net Debt
-104.03M	-65.21M	-154.15M	-65.15M	-86.86M	-65.31M
	Total Liabilities
76.51M	64.94M	28.23M	387.97M	381.35M	298.27M
	Stockholders Equity
1.02B	1.06B	621.09M	349.45M	301.51M	198.27M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-267.98M	-251.44M	-117.59M	-90.62M	-58.42M	54.97M
	Operating Cash Flow
-264.11M	-247.58M	-115.22M	-87.17M	-55.78M	55.46M
	Investing Cash Flow
-68.77M	-502.56M	-158.46M	-33.40M	-69.67M	-146.24M
	Financing Cash Flow
354.58M	677.55M	362.72M	97.17M	145.45M	128.75M

IDEAYA Biosciences Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.28
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IDYA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.19, above the 50-day MA of 18.70, and below the 200-day MA of 24.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IDYA.

IDEAYA Biosciences Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMCR	62 Neutral	$1.80B	―	-5.78%	―	25.50%	64.63%
KYMR	61 Neutral	$3.15B	―	-32.17%	―	-25.85%	-23.89%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.31	-45.11%	3.29%	16.82%	0.04%
IDYA	53 Neutral	$1.98B	―	-31.34%	―	-54.85%	-79.25%
CGON	49 Neutral	$2.09B	―	-16.57%	―	―	―
BEAM	45 Neutral	$1.82B	―	-38.04%	―	-82.38%	-164.76%
ETNB	42 Neutral	$1.50B	―	-69.30%	―	―	-68.13%

IDEAYA Biosciences Corporate Events

IDEAYA Biosciences Announces Board Restructuring Plans

On March 28, 2025, Susan L. Kelley, M.D. notified IDEAYA Biosciences of her decision not to seek re-election to the Board of Directors at the 2025 annual meeting of stockholders. Dr. Kelley will resign from the Board at the end of her current term but will transition to an advisory role as Chair of the new Clinical Advisory Board. The company plans to reduce the Board size to seven directors after the meeting, and Dr. Kelley’s decision is not due to any disagreement with the company’s operations or policies.