Agios Pharma (AGIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.68B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.99
• Revenue Growth: 36.26%
• EPS Growth: -158.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 486
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.78
• Shares Outstanding: 58,313,812
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 894,335
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,358,170
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 51.14
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 31.82
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 37.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.23
• 1Y Price Target: $36.14
• Price Target Upside: 30.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): -6.65
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $97.52M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(0.72% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses and negative operating/free cash flow) and a bearish longer-term technical trend. Offsetting these, the earnings outlook is more constructive due to meaningful regulatory and clinical catalysts and evidence of commercial traction, with a positive corporate update around U.S. approval and launch plans.

Positive Factors

High gross margin

An 85% gross margin indicates the company’s therapies have low incremental production costs and substantial pricing power. This supports durable unit economics, enabling Agios to fund commercialization and R&D while maintaining margin sustainability as sales scale over the next several quarters.

Strong cash runway

About $1.3B of cash and investments provides a meaningful runway to support U.S. launches, REMS implementation, and multiple clinical programs. This reduces near-term financing risk, allowing strategic investments in commercial infrastructure and pipeline advancement over the next 2–6 months.

First FDA-approved thalassemia therapy

Achieving sole FDA approval for thalassemia is a structural competitive advantage: establishes lead product, prescriber relationships, and formulary positioning. A successful launch can create durable revenue streams and a platform for label expansions and further rare-disease commercialization.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow undermines self-sustaining growth despite strong margins. Over months, continued cash burn forces reliance on the cash runway or external financing, raising dilution or balance sheet risk if commercial uptake or trial milestones slip.

REMS requirement adding launch friction

A REMS requirement imposes additional monitoring, distribution and prescriber constraints that can slow adoption, complicate payer access, and increase commercial costs. Over the launch period, REMS can materially reduce uptake velocity and delay reaching projected sales milestones.

Rising operating expenses and weak ROE

Increasing R&D and SG&A while returns remain negative (ROE reported as -28%) pressures the path to profitability. Elevated spend to support launches and trials can extend the period before positive returns, requiring sustained commercial success or additional funding to justify long-term investment.

Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of medicines in the field of cellular metabolism and adjacent areas of biology. The company offers PYRUKYND (mitapivat) an activator of both wild-type and a variety of mutant pyruvate kinase, PK, enzymes for the treatment of hemolytic anemias; and AG-946 that is in Phase I clinical study for treating hemolytic anemias and other indications. Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Agios generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its approved therapies, particularly IDHIFA and TIBSOVO, which contribute to sales revenue from patients and healthcare providers. Additionally, the company may receive milestone payments and royalties from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies for the development and commercialization of its drug candidates. Collaborations, licensing agreements, and research partnerships can also provide significant revenue streams, contributing to Agios's overall earnings. The company is focused on expanding its portfolio of therapies and may generate further income through pipeline products as they advance through clinical trials and gain regulatory approval.

Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Agios Pharma shows revenue growth potential with a 9.58% increase in TTM. However, profitability challenges persist with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, and a net profit margin of 15.90% due to significant losses. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but cash flow inefficiencies and negative return on equity highlight areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Agios Pharma shows a positive revenue growth trend with a 9.58% increase in TTM, indicating potential market expansion. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, and a net profit margin of 15.90% due to significant losses. The gross profit margin remains strong at 85.10%, suggesting efficient cost management in production.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial structure with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.036, indicating low leverage and financial risk. However, the return on equity is negative at -28.35%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Agios Pharma's cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation, with negative operating and free cash flows. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating that cash flow aligns with reported earnings. However, the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests inefficiencies in converting earnings into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	44.79M	36.50M	26.82M	14.24M	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	37.81M	32.33M	17.32M	12.54M	-18.78M	-18.77M
EBITDA	-441.84M	-420.08M	-384.86M	-380.48M	-337.73M	-310.53M
Net Income	-401.26M	673.73M	-352.09M	-231.80M	1.60B	-327.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.39B	1.66B	937.12M	1.24B	1.44B	852.95M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	952.86M	893.71M	776.93M	783.12M	1.02B	572.93M
Total Debt	44.52M	56.99M	72.00M	85.66M	97.09M	105.20M
Total Liabilities	101.38M	122.24M	126.10M	137.90M	145.76M	453.45M
Stockholders Equity	1.28B	1.54B	811.02M	1.10B	1.29B	399.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-414.09M	-391.53M	-297.06M	-314.36M	-413.06M	-304.87M
Operating Cash Flow	-409.93M	-389.84M	-296.06M	-309.48M	-407.32M	-290.76M
Investing Cash Flow	237.95M	363.44M	239.57M	243.26M	1.25B	75.75M
Financing Cash Flow	10.96M	14.44M	5.43M	2.35M	-765.77M	261.52M

Agios Pharma Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.15, below the 50-day MA of 30.45, and below the 200-day MA of 34.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGIO.

Agios Pharma Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
APGE	65 Neutral	$5.63B	-18.70	-38.41%	―	―	-58.35%
NAMS	55 Neutral	$3.62B	-15.59	-39.94%	―	―	―
RXRX	52 Neutral	$2.52B	-2.56	-91.06%	―	-32.98%	-18.46%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
AGIO	49 Neutral	$1.68B	-4.00	-27.57%	―	36.26%	-158.98%
IBRX	49 Neutral	$2.97B	-9.39	―	―	1025.95%	52.91%
DNLI	46 Neutral	$2.85B	-6.45	-44.44%	―	―	-5.30%

Agios Pharma Corporate Events

Agios Pharma Sets 2026 Strategic Priorities After AQVESME Approval

On January 12, 2026, Agios outlined its 2026 strategic priorities following the December 2025 U.S. approval of AQVESME (mitapivat) for anemia in adults with alpha- or beta-thalassemia, marking the first and only FDA-approved treatment for both non-transfusion-dependent and transfusion-dependent forms of the disease. The company is launching AQVESME in the U.S. with a REMS program in place due to hepatocellular injury risks and expects the drug to become commercially available in late January 2026, while also highlighting a path to profitability supported by its existing rare disease portfolio and the potential to exceed $1 billion in peak global sales. Agios plans to advance mitapivat into sickle cell disease with a U.S. regulatory submission anticipated after a pre-sNDA meeting in early 2026, report key 2026 clinical milestones for tebapivat in sickle cell disease and lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, and generate early-stage data in polycythemia vera and phenylketonuria, reinforcing its strategy to diversify across hematologic and rare diseases and strengthen its competitive position in the rare disease therapeutics market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGIO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agios Pharma stock, see the AGIO Stock Forecast page.