Agios Pharma (AGIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.77B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 828.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.90
• Revenue Growth: 36.26%
• EPS Growth: -158.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 486
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.86
• Shares Outstanding: 58,592,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 763,118
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 828,230
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 29.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 31.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 36.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.93
• 1Y Price Target: $38.57
• Price Target Upside: 27.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): -6.52
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $89.69M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▼(-7.38% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/13/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance driven by large ongoing operating losses and sustained negative cash flow, with additional pressure from a weak longer-term technical trend. Offsetting these are a constructive earnings-call outlook citing strong recent revenue growth, a new approval with early launch traction, disciplined expense guidance, and substantial cash resources.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue growth and commercial traction

Sustained double-digit revenue growth driven by Pyrukynd demonstrates expanding commercial adoption and validates go-to-market capabilities. Durable top-line momentum supports scaling fixed-cost absorption, strengthens negotiating leverage with payers, and underpins a realistic path to profitability if growth persists.

New FDA-approved therapy for thalassemia (AQVESME/Afesmi)

First-in-class approval for thalassemia creates a durable, addressable market and first-mover advantage. Approval plus REMS-managed launch establishes commercial infrastructure, pricing power, and long-term revenue potential that can diversify the portfolio beyond PK deficiency and support peak sales upside.

Strong cash position and conservative leverage

A ~$1.2B cash balance and low leverage provide financial flexibility to fund launches, trials and R&D without immediate dilution. This runway supports multi-indication development and potential commercialization of sickle cell and MDS programs, reducing near-term liquidity risk while the business scales.

Negative Factors

Sustained cash burn and operating losses

Recurring large operating losses and materially negative operating and free cash flow reflect structural unprofitability. If commercial expansion or trial outcomes disappoint, continued cash burn risks equity erosion or dilutive financing, constraining long-term capital allocation and strategic optionality.

High R&D and SG&A expense base

Large R&D and SG&A outlays relative to current revenue create a high fixed-cost structure that slows margin expansion. Sustained elevated spend is necessary for pipeline progress but raises the breakeven hurdle and heightens reliance on successful launches and trial readouts to achieve durable profitability.

Regulatory and launch frictions for new indications

Unclear regulatory pathway for sickle cell could require additional confirmatory trials, delaying approvals and peak sales. REMS requirements and treatment-initiation lags materially slow revenue realization from early scripts, reducing near-term conversion visibility and prolonging reliance on cash reserves.

Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of medicines in the field of cellular metabolism and adjacent areas of biology. The company offers PYRUKYND (mitapivat) an activator of both wild-type and a variety of mutant pyruvate kinase, PK, enzymes for the treatment of hemolytic anemias; and AG-946 that is in Phase I clinical study for treating hemolytic anemias and other indications. Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Agios generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its approved therapies, particularly IDHIFA and TIBSOVO, which contribute to sales revenue from patients and healthcare providers. Additionally, the company may receive milestone payments and royalties from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies for the development and commercialization of its drug candidates. Collaborations, licensing agreements, and research partnerships can also provide significant revenue streams, contributing to Agios's overall earnings. The company is focused on expanding its portfolio of therapies and may generate further income through pipeline products as they advance through clinical trials and gain regulatory approval.

Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and generally high gross margins are positives, and leverage is low with sizable equity. However, the company is still far from operating breakeven with persistent, large operating losses and consistently deep negative operating/free cash flow, indicating ongoing cash burn.

Income Statement

Revenue is growing quickly (up 88% in 2023 and 21% in 2025), and gross profit margins are strong in most years (roughly mid-60% to high-80%), which is supportive of long-term operating leverage. However, operating losses remain very large versus the revenue base (EBITDA and EBIT deeply negative in every year shown), leading to significant net losses in 2022, 2023, and 2025. Net income also appears volatile (notably the large profit in 2021 and 2024 despite negative operating results), which reduces earnings quality and predictability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively levered, with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity generally ~0.03–0.09, higher in 2020 at ~0.26). Equity remains sizable, providing a cushion while the company operates at a loss. The main weakness is profitability: returns on equity swing sharply and are negative in most years, reflecting ongoing operating losses and creating risk of future equity erosion if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear weak spot: operating cash flow is consistently and materially negative each year, and free cash flow is also deeply negative. Free cash flow growth is unstable (improving in some years but deteriorating in others, including down ~9% in 2025), indicating the cash burn is not yet on a clear downward trajectory. While free cash flow is close to net income in several years, the underlying issue is that both are negative in key periods, implying continued reliance on balance-sheet resources or financing.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.03M	36.50M	26.82M	14.24M	0.00
Gross Profit	47.68M	32.33M	17.32M	12.54M	-18.78M
EBITDA	-466.95M	-420.08M	-384.86M	-380.48M	-337.73M
Net Income	-412.78M	673.73M	-352.09M	-231.80M	1.60B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.30B	1.66B	937.12M	1.24B	1.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	854.42M	893.71M	776.93M	783.12M	1.02B
Total Debt	62.02M	56.99M	72.00M	85.66M	97.09M
Total Liabilities	104.11M	122.24M	126.10M	137.90M	145.76M
Stockholders Equity	1.19B	1.54B	811.02M	1.10B	1.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-377.29M	-391.53M	-297.06M	-314.36M	-413.06M
Operating Cash Flow	-372.98M	-389.84M	-296.06M	-309.48M	-407.32M
Investing Cash Flow	377.18M	363.44M	239.57M	243.26M	1.25B
Financing Cash Flow	8.68M	14.44M	5.43M	2.35M	-765.77M

Agios Pharma Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.17, above the 50-day MA of 27.67, and below the 200-day MA of 34.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGIO.

Agios Pharma Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NAMS	56 Neutral	$4.08B	-20.30	-28.29%	―	―	―
DNLI	55 Neutral	$3.36B	-7.13	-44.44%	―	―	-5.30%
IBRX	54 Neutral	$10.05B	-25.09	―	―	1025.95%	52.91%
RXRX	53 Neutral	$1.91B	-2.47	-59.54%	―	-32.98%	-18.46%
AGIO	52 Neutral	$1.77B	-4.25	-30.20%	―	36.26%	-158.98%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
APGE	51 Neutral	$4.78B	-16.21	-38.41%	―	―	-58.35%

Agios Pharma Corporate Events

Agios Pharma Sets 2026 Strategic Priorities After AQVESME Approval

On January 12, 2026, Agios outlined its 2026 strategic priorities following the December 2025 U.S. approval of AQVESME (mitapivat) for anemia in adults with alpha- or beta-thalassemia, marking the first and only FDA-approved treatment for both non-transfusion-dependent and transfusion-dependent forms of the disease. The company is launching AQVESME in the U.S. with a REMS program in place due to hepatocellular injury risks and expects the drug to become commercially available in late January 2026, while also highlighting a path to profitability supported by its existing rare disease portfolio and the potential to exceed $1 billion in peak global sales. Agios plans to advance mitapivat into sickle cell disease with a U.S. regulatory submission anticipated after a pre-sNDA meeting in early 2026, report key 2026 clinical milestones for tebapivat in sickle cell disease and lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, and generate early-stage data in polycythemia vera and phenylketonuria, reinforcing its strategy to diversify across hematologic and rare diseases and strengthen its competitive position in the rare disease therapeutics market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGIO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agios Pharma stock, see the AGIO Stock Forecast page.