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Agios Pharma
(NASDAQ:AGIO)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-9.24% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is held back primarily by continued large losses and heavy cash burn despite strong revenue growth, with weak near-term technical positioning (below key short-term moving averages). Offsetting these risks, the earnings call pointed to strong early launch momentum, multiple near-term regulatory/clinical catalysts, and a robust cash balance, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth & high gross margin
Sustained high top-line growth paired with ~82% gross margins indicates the company’s products have strong unit economics and pricing power. Over 2–6 months this supports reinvestment in commercial scale-up and reduces dependency on immediate margin improvement to reach durable revenue expansion.
Negative Factors
Large persistent cash burn
Consistent multi-hundred-million operating and free cash outflows mean the company will rely on its cash reserve or external financing to sustain operations until profitable. Over 2–6 months this elevates dilution and budgeting risk, constraining discretionary R&D or commercial expansion if burn persists.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth & high gross margin
Sustained high top-line growth paired with ~82% gross margins indicates the company’s products have strong unit economics and pricing power. Over 2–6 months this supports reinvestment in commercial scale-up and reduces dependency on immediate margin improvement to reach durable revenue expansion.
Read all positive factors
Agios Pharma (AGIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.79B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.86
Revenue Growth140.58%
EPS Growth-161.11%
CountryUS
Employees540
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.01
Shares Outstanding59,701,880
10 Day Avg. Volume1,012,320
30 Day Avg. Volume1,160,539
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.32
Price to Sales (P/S)29.21
P/FCF Ratio-4.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.00Price Target Upside12.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-5.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$171.19M
Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research and advancement of new treatments, specifically targeting cellular metabolism and related biological fields. The company's offerings include PYRUKYND (mitapivat), a ...
How the Company Makes Money
Agios primarily makes money through (1) product sales from its commercialized therapies and (2) collaboration-related revenue. Product revenue is generated by selling PYRUKYND and TIBSOVO through specialty distribution channels; revenue depends on...
Agios Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong early commercial momentum and significant regulatory and pipeline progress—highlighted by 138% YoY revenue growth, a successful AQVESME U.S. launch with 242 prescriptions, planned sNDA submission for mitapivat in sickle cell disease, and a robust cash position (> $1B). Offsetting items included rising R&D and SG&A spend, limited ex‑U.S. revenue and quarter‑to‑quarter variability, a prescription‑to‑initiation lag as launch broadens, a 60% lower tebapivat exposure signal in low‑risk MDS necessitating higher‑dose evaluation, and some regulatory/competitive uncertainty that will need to be resolved by upcoming data and confirmatory trials. Overall, the positives (strong growth, launch execution, regulatory progress and ample liquidity) materially outweigh the near‑term challenges and risks.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Delivered $20.7 million in net revenues in Q1 2026, representing 138% year‑over‑year growth; U.S. sales accounted for $18.8 million (≈90.8% of total) with $1.9 million ex‑U.S.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Spend in Q1
First quarter R&D expense was $81 million (an increase of roughly $8 million, or ~11% year‑over‑year) and SG&A was $48 million (up approximately $7 million, or ~17% year‑over‑year), driven by workforce‑related expenses, process development and commercial launch activities, including higher stock‑based compensation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Delivered $20.7 million in net revenues in Q1 2026, representing 138% year‑over‑year growth; U.S. sales accounted for $18.8 million (≈90.8% of total) with $1.9 million ex‑U.S.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agios provided detailed fiscal and operational guidance and milestone timing: Q1 net revenues were $20.7M (up 138% YoY) composed of $18.8M U.S. and $1.9M ex‑U.S.; R&D expense was $81M (≈+$8M YoY) and SG&A was $48M (≈+$7M YoY); cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities exceeded $1.0B. Management expects 2026 operating expenses to be approximately flat versus 2025 and reiterated prior PKD revenue guidance of roughly $45–50M for a full year. Commercially, the U.S. AQVESME thalassemia launch had 242 prescriptions by REMS‑certified physicians as of March 31 (44 as of Jan 31), the REMS was operational at end of January, and average prescription‑to‑initiation is expected to normalize to ~10–12 weeks. Key clinical/regulatory milestones: sNDA filing for mitapivat in sickle cell disease planned in Q2 under accelerated approval with a confirmatory trial to be defined, Phase IIb topline tebapivat data in low‑risk MDS (10/15/20 mg; 8 consecutive weeks transfusion independence primary endpoint) expected in H1, Phase II tebapivat sickle cell data in H2, healthy volunteer AG‑236 and AG‑181 readouts in 2026, a pipeline representing >$10B TAM in 2030, and tebapivat early PK/PD signals (half‑life ~87–93 hrs; mean Hb increase ~1.9 g/dL at 5 mg; noted ~60% lower exposure in low‑risk MDS vs healthy volunteers).Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 98.34M | 54.03M | 36.50M | 26.82M | 14.24M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 86.46M | 42.51M | 32.33M | 17.32M | 12.54M | -18.78M |
| EBITDA | -416.80M | -408.62M | 723.62M | -345.46M | -223.24M | -337.73M |
| Net Income | -411.29M | -412.78M | 673.73M | -352.09M | -231.80M | 1.60B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.11B | 1.30B | 1.66B | 937.12M | 1.24B | 1.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 617.58M | 854.42M | 893.71M | 776.93M | 783.12M | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 31.17M | 40.21M | 56.99M | 72.00M | 85.66M | 97.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 82.40M | 104.11M | 122.24M | 126.10M | 137.90M | 145.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.03B | 1.19B | 1.54B | 811.02M | 1.10B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -365.25M | -377.29M | -391.53M | -297.06M | -314.36M | -413.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -360.60M | -372.98M | -389.84M | -296.06M | -309.48M | -407.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 367.15M | 377.18M | 363.44M | 239.57M | 243.26M | 1.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.22M | 8.68M | 14.44M | 5.43M | 2.35M | -765.77M |
Agios Pharma Technical Analysis
Negative
36.36
Price Trends
34.36
Negative
31.91
Negative
31.48
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.25
Positive
37.28
Neutral
22.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.67, above the 50-day MA of 34.36, and above the 200-day MA of 31.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGIO.
Agios Pharma Risk Analysis
Agios Pharma disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agios Pharma reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agios Pharma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.82B | -4.42 | -50.17% | ― | 34.26% | 23.00% | |
59 Neutral | $2.41B | -6.73 | -76.09% | ― | -58.40% | -31.99% | |
54 Neutral | $1.79B | -4.28 | -35.67% | ― | 140.58% | -161.11% | |
53 Neutral | $1.49B | -3.02 | -57.27% | ― | 45.04% | 32.42% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
47 Neutral | $2.45B | -4.08 | 1566.94% | ― | 13.33% | -3.82% | |
44 Neutral | $2.63B | -39.88 | -7.70% | ― | 157.97% | 86.11% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AGIO
Agios Pharma
31.72
-6.00
-15.91%
RARE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical
24.93
-3.12
-11.12%
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics
4.34
1.76
68.22%
NTLA
Intellia Therapeutics
10.97
-0.40
-3.52%
BEAM
Beam Therapeutics
27.07
8.77
47.92%
NRIX
Nurix Therapeutics
25.12
14.66
140.15%
Agios Pharma Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Agios Pharma Shareholders Expand Equity Plan, Reelect Directors
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 18, 2026, Agios Pharmaceuticals’ shareholders approved an amendment to the company’s 2023 Stock Incentive Plan, adding 2,000,000 shares of common stock available for issuance, inc...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.