Agios Pharma (AGIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.99B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 548.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: 25.96%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 486
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.55
• Shares Outstanding: 57,915,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 586,762
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 548,636
• PEG Ratio: 0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 48.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.89
• 1Y Price Target: $57.20
• Price Target Upside: 66.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(4.96%Upside)

Agios Pharma's overall stock score of 61 reflects a mix of strong technical indicators and promising future growth potential from product launches, balanced against current financial challenges and operational inefficiencies. The company's strategic focus on pipeline advancement and financial independence supports a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

Mitapivat's Phase 2 data has shown encouraging efficacy in sickle cell disease, indicating potential success in future trials and approvals.

Partnerships

Agios Pharmaceuticals has established a commercial and distribution partnership with Avanzanite for Pyrukynd in Europe, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, which is viewed favorably as it aligns with their strategic focus.

Product Development

Mitapivat is viewed as a pipeline-in-a-product with potential for new and larger label expansions in thalassemia and sickle cell disease, creating a significant commercial advantage.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

The company reported $8.7 million in 1Q25 revenues for mitapivat, missing consensus estimates of $10.1 million.

Hepatocellular Injury Concerns

Concerns over hepatocellular injury have negatively impacted AGIO stock, which is down approximately 45% due to these issues observed in thalassemia patients.

Revenue Distribution

Analyst's price target for Agios has been lowered due to the expectation of a revenue share agreement with Avanzanite, which initially favors Avanzanite in terms of revenue distribution.

Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery and development of novel therapeutics in the field of cellular metabolism. The company focuses on creating transformative therapies for genetically defined diseases, particularly in the area of rare genetic disorders and hematologic cancers. Agios' innovative approach is centered on understanding the role of cellular metabolism in disease, leveraging its scientific expertise to develop groundbreaking treatments that can significantly improve patient outcomes.

How the Company Makes Money

Agios Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary therapeutic products. The company's revenue streams include product sales, collaborations, and licensing agreements. Agios has partnered with various pharmaceutical companies to co-develop and commercialize its products, which provides milestone payments and royalties as a significant source of income. Additionally, the company may receive research funding and grants to support its drug discovery and development efforts. By advancing its pipeline of potential therapies through clinical trials and achieving regulatory approvals, Agios aims to expand its market presence and increase its revenue from product sales.

Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Agios Pharma faces financial challenges typical in the biotechnology industry, with fluctuating revenue, significant operational losses, and reliance on non-operational income. The strong equity position offers some financial cushion, but operational efficiency and cash flow generation need improvement for long-term viability.

Income Statement

Agios Pharma has shown inconsistent revenue trends with a significant decline from $203.2M in 2020 to $36.5M in 2024. Despite this, the TTM data shows a slight revenue increase compared to 2024. Gross profit margins have been generally high, but EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative due to substantial operating losses, indicating challenges in achieving operational profitability. The net profit margin is skewed by a significant net income figure in some periods due to non-operational factors.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong equity position with low leverage, evidenced by the debt-to-equity ratio and high equity ratio. Stockholders' equity consistently exceeds total liabilities, showcasing financial stability. However, the company needs to manage its debt levels prudently given the negative EBIT and EBITDA, which could stress financial health if cash reserves diminish.

Cash Flow

Agios Pharma's cash flow statements reveal negative operating and free cash flows, indicating the company is not generating cash from its operations. While investing cash flow is positive, largely due to asset sales, the reliance on such activities is unsustainable long-term. The company must improve operational cash generation to ensure financial resilience.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
37.03M	36.50M	26.82M	14.24M	0.00	203.20M
	Gross Profit
30.82M	32.33M	17.32M	12.54M	-18.78M	200.39M
	EBIT
-440.29M	-425.74M	-391.49M	-389.05M	-378.42M	-316.15M
	EBITDA
-437.33M	-425.74M	-384.86M	-380.48M	-337.73M	-326.13M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
665.99M	673.73M	-352.09M	-74.56M	1.60B	-335.22M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
893.38M	893.71M	776.93M	1.10B	1.29B	670.54M
	Total Assets
1.56B	1.66B	937.12M	1.24B	1.44B	852.95M
	Total Debt
52.94M	56.99M	72.00M	85.66M	97.09M	105.20M
	Net Debt
-26.02M	-19.26M	-16.21M	-53.60M	-106.03M	-22.24M
	Total Liabilities
88.99M	122.24M	126.10M	137.90M	145.76M	453.45M
	Stockholders Equity
1.47B	1.54B	811.02M	1.10B	1.29B	399.50M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-403.77M	-391.53M	-297.06M	-314.36M	-413.06M	-305.67M
	Operating Cash Flow
-401.46M	-389.84M	-296.06M	-309.48M	-407.32M	-290.76M
	Investing Cash Flow
351.47M	363.44M	239.57M	243.26M	1.25B	75.75M
	Financing Cash Flow
10.20M	14.44M	5.43M	2.35M	-765.77M	261.52M

Agios Pharma Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.15, above the 50-day MA of 29.66, and below the 200-day MA of 38.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGIO.

Agios Pharma Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HRMY	78 Outperform	$1.89B	12.57	24.71%	―	20.62%	14.08%
AGIO	61 Neutral	$1.99B	3.04	60.26%	―	25.96%	―
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
ARQT	52 Neutral	$1.60B	―	-70.58%	―	100.03%	64.22%
TVTX	51 Neutral	$1.33B	―	-422.66%	―	49.29%	44.52%
JANX	46 Neutral	$1.47B	―	-9.32%	―	28.12%	-11.01%
VERA	39 Underperform	$1.45B	―	-39.49%	―	―	-20.03%

Agios Pharma Corporate Events

Agios Pharma Board Member Announces Resignation

On February 10, 2025, Dr. David P. Schenkein announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of Agios Pharmaceuticals, effective February 28, 2025. Despite stepping down from the Board and its Science and Technology Committee, Dr. Schenkein will continue to play a strategic advisory role, aiding the company’s leadership in advancing clinical development programs.