Agios Pharma (AGIO)
NASDAQ:AGIO
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Agios Pharma
(NASDAQ:AGIO)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▼(-5.37% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance driven by large ongoing operating losses and sustained negative cash flow, with additional pressure from a weak longer-term technical trend. Offsetting these are a constructive earnings-call outlook citing strong recent revenue growth, a new approval with early launch traction, disciplined expense guidance, and substantial cash resources.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and commercial traction
Sustained double-digit revenue growth driven by Pyrukynd demonstrates expanding commercial adoption and validates go-to-market capabilities. Durable top-line momentum supports scaling fixed-cost absorption, strengthens negotiating leverage with payers, and underpins a realistic path to profitability if growth persists.
Negative Factors
Sustained cash burn and operating losses
Recurring large operating losses and materially negative operating and free cash flow reflect structural unprofitability. If commercial expansion or trial outcomes disappoint, continued cash burn risks equity erosion or dilutive financing, constraining long-term capital allocation and strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and commercial traction
Sustained double-digit revenue growth driven by Pyrukynd demonstrates expanding commercial adoption and validates go-to-market capabilities. Durable top-line momentum supports scaling fixed-cost absorption, strengthens negotiating leverage with payers, and underpins a realistic path to profitability if growth persists.
Read all positive factors
Agios Pharma (AGIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.73B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)768.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.91
Revenue Growth36.26%
EPS Growth-158.98%
CountryUS
Employees486
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.86
Shares Outstanding58,592,170
10 Day Avg. Volume660,477
30 Day Avg. Volume768,570
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.32
Price to Sales (P/S)29.21
P/FCF Ratio-4.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue31.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit35.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.67Price Target Upside34.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-6.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$91.25M
Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of medicines in the field of cellular metabolism and adjacent areas of biology. The company offers PYRUKYND (mitapivat) an activator of both wild-ty...
How the Company Makes Money
Agios generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its approved therapies, particularly IDHIFA and TIBSOVO, which contribute to sales revenue from patients and healthcare providers. Additionally, the company may receive milestone p...
Agios Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial and pipeline momentum: notable Q4 revenue growth (86% YoY), Afesmi U.S. approval and an encouraging early launch (44 prescriptions in five weeks), a robust near-term catalyst calendar, and a healthy balance sheet (~$1.2B). Offsetting risks include near-term revenue timing delays (10–12 week conversion from script to treatment), anticipated sequential U.S. revenue decline into early 2026 due to ordering and inventory dynamics, sizeable R&D/SG&A spend without a specific profitability timetable, and regulatory uncertainty around the sickle cell approval pathway. Overall, the positives (approval, growth, cash runway, and multiple upcoming data readouts) outweigh the operational and timing headwinds, supporting an optimistic outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 worldwide Pyrukynd revenue of $20,000,000, up 86% year-over-year and up 55% sequentially from $13,000,000; full year 2025 revenue of $54,000,000.
Negative Updates
Anticipated Sequential Revenue Decline
Management expects a sequential decline in U.S. revenues into 2026 (Q1 impact) due to launch conversion timing and inventory/order dynamics.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 worldwide Pyrukynd revenue of $20,000,000, up 86% year-over-year and up 55% sequentially from $13,000,000; full year 2025 revenue of $54,000,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that it expects 2026 operating expenses to be roughly flat with 2025 while targeting a clear path to profitability driven by its commercial portfolio (PK deficiency and newly approved Afesmi for thalassemia); specific financials noted on the call include Q4 2025 Pyrukynd revenue of $20.0M (up 86% year‑over‑year and +55% sequential from $13.0M) and full‑year 2025 revenue of $54M, Q4 U.S. revenue $16.0M (up 50% YoY) and ex‑U.S. $4.0M, Q4 cost of sales $1.9M, R&D $88.1M (up $5.3M vs. 2024), SG&A $51.6M, and cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of ~ $1.2B; FY2026 U.S. PK deficiency revenue is expected to be $45–50M, gross‑to‑net for thalassemia is assumed ~10–20%, and the company expects prescriptions to convert to treatment initiation on average in 10–12 weeks (44 REMS‑certified prescriptions written by Jan 30); key 2026 catalysts include a pre‑sNDA meeting for mitapivat (Q1), Phase II tebipivat toplines in lower‑risk MDS (H1) and sickle cell disease (H2), Phase I AG‑236 topline (H1) and initiation of AG‑181 Phase 1b, with a combined pipeline market opportunity estimated at $10B.Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 54.03M | 36.50M | 26.82M | 14.24M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 47.68M | 32.33M | 17.32M | 12.54M | -18.78M |
| EBITDA | -466.95M | -420.08M | -384.86M | -380.48M | -337.73M |
| Net Income | -412.78M | 673.73M | -352.09M | -231.80M | 1.60B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.30B | 1.66B | 937.12M | 1.24B | 1.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 854.42M | 893.71M | 776.93M | 783.12M | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 62.02M | 56.99M | 72.00M | 85.66M | 97.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 104.11M | 122.24M | 126.10M | 137.90M | 145.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.19B | 1.54B | 811.02M | 1.10B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -377.29M | -391.53M | -297.06M | -314.36M | -413.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -372.98M | -389.84M | -296.06M | -309.48M | -407.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 377.18M | 363.44M | 239.57M | 243.26M | 1.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.68M | 14.44M | 5.43M | 2.35M | -765.77M |
Agios Pharma Technical Analysis
Positive
29.59
Price Trends
28.22
Positive
29.76
Negative
33.85
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
59.67
Neutral
60.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.46, above the 50-day MA of 28.22, and below the 200-day MA of 33.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGIO.
Agios Pharma Risk Analysis
Agios Pharma disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agios Pharma reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agios Pharma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $5.46B | -17.91 | -36.77% | ― | ― | -58.35% | |
58 Neutral | $3.56B | -5.65 | -50.13% | ― | ― | -5.30% | |
55 Neutral | $3.57B | -19.69 | -28.29% | ― | ― | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.73B | -3.82 | -31.07% | ― | 36.26% | -158.98% | |
52 Neutral | $1.67B | -2.84 | -63.98% | ― | -32.98% | -18.46% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $8.30B | -5.18 | 64.30% | ― | 1025.95% | 52.91% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AGIO
Agios Pharma
29.59
-0.81
-2.66%
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Agios Pharma Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Agios Pharma Sets 2026 Strategic Priorities After AQVESME Approval
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Agios outlined its 2026 strategic priorities following the December 2025 U.S. approval of AQVESME (mitapivat) for anemia in adults with alpha- or beta-thalassemia, marking the first and only FDA-approved treatment for both non...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.