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Agios Pharma
(NASDAQ:AGIO)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
▲(28.06% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/08/26
The score is held back primarily by large ongoing losses and significant cash burn despite strong gross margins and revenue growth. Technicals are supportive due to strong momentum above major moving averages, but extremely overbought indicators increase near-term volatility risk. The earnings call was a net positive due to strong launch progress, clear milestones, and ample liquidity, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Strong commercial growth and launch execution
Sustained double‑digit revenue growth and rapid prescription pickup for a newly launched specialty product indicate product‑market fit and effective commercial capabilities. Durable launch execution across REMS and specialty channels improves odds of scaling revenues and absorbing fixed commercialization costs over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Large and persistent cash burn
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow of several hundred million annually creates structural financing risk if revenue ramp slows. Continued burn will require careful capital management or future financing, which can dilute shareholders or constrain strategic optionality over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong commercial growth and launch execution
Sustained double‑digit revenue growth and rapid prescription pickup for a newly launched specialty product indicate product‑market fit and effective commercial capabilities. Durable launch execution across REMS and specialty channels improves odds of scaling revenues and absorbing fixed commercialization costs over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Agios Pharma (AGIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.54B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.83
Revenue Growth78.34%
EPS Growth-161.91%
CountryUS
Employees486
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.25
Shares Outstanding59,471,607
10 Day Avg. Volume1,054,174
30 Day Avg. Volume1,088,979
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.32
Price to Sales (P/S)29.21
P/FCF Ratio-4.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue28.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit34.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.33Price Target Upside11.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-6.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$123.23M
Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research and advancement of new treatments, specifically targeting cellular metabolism and related biological fields. The company's offerings include PYRUKYND (mitapivat), a ...
How the Company Makes Money
Agios primarily makes money through (1) product sales from its commercialized therapies and (2) collaboration-related revenue. Product revenue is generated by selling PYRUKYND and TIBSOVO through specialty distribution channels; revenue depends on...
Agios Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong early commercial momentum and significant regulatory and pipeline progress—highlighted by 138% YoY revenue growth, a successful AQVESME U.S. launch with 242 prescriptions, planned sNDA submission for mitapivat in sickle cell disease, and a robust cash position (> $1B). Offsetting items included rising R&D and SG&A spend, limited ex‑U.S. revenue and quarter‑to‑quarter variability, a prescription‑to‑initiation lag as launch broadens, a 60% lower tebapivat exposure signal in low‑risk MDS necessitating higher‑dose evaluation, and some regulatory/competitive uncertainty that will need to be resolved by upcoming data and confirmatory trials. Overall, the positives (strong growth, launch execution, regulatory progress and ample liquidity) materially outweigh the near‑term challenges and risks.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Delivered $20.7 million in net revenues in Q1 2026, representing 138% year‑over‑year growth; U.S. sales accounted for $18.8 million (≈90.8% of total) with $1.9 million ex‑U.S.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Spend in Q1
First quarter R&D expense was $81 million (an increase of roughly $8 million, or ~11% year‑over‑year) and SG&A was $48 million (up approximately $7 million, or ~17% year‑over‑year), driven by workforce‑related expenses, process development and commercial launch activities, including higher stock‑based compensation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Delivered $20.7 million in net revenues in Q1 2026, representing 138% year‑over‑year growth; U.S. sales accounted for $18.8 million (≈90.8% of total) with $1.9 million ex‑U.S.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agios provided detailed fiscal and operational guidance and milestone timing: Q1 net revenues were $20.7M (up 138% YoY) composed of $18.8M U.S. and $1.9M ex‑U.S.; R&D expense was $81M (≈+$8M YoY) and SG&A was $48M (≈+$7M YoY); cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities exceeded $1.0B. Management expects 2026 operating expenses to be approximately flat versus 2025 and reiterated prior PKD revenue guidance of roughly $45–50M for a full year. Commercially, the U.S. AQVESME thalassemia launch had 242 prescriptions by REMS‑certified physicians as of March 31 (44 as of Jan 31), the REMS was operational at end of January, and average prescription‑to‑initiation is expected to normalize to ~10–12 weeks. Key clinical/regulatory milestones: sNDA filing for mitapivat in sickle cell disease planned in Q2 under accelerated approval with a confirmatory trial to be defined, Phase IIb topline tebapivat data in low‑risk MDS (10/15/20 mg; 8 consecutive weeks transfusion independence primary endpoint) expected in H1, Phase II tebapivat sickle cell data in H2, healthy volunteer AG‑236 and AG‑181 readouts in 2026, a pipeline representing >$10B TAM in 2030, and tebapivat early PK/PD signals (half‑life ~87–93 hrs; mean Hb increase ~1.9 g/dL at 5 mg; noted ~60% lower exposure in low‑risk MDS vs healthy volunteers).Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 66.05M | 54.03M | 36.50M | 26.82M | 14.24M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 54.21M | 42.51M | 32.33M | 17.32M | 12.54M | -18.78M |
| EBITDA | -418.36M | -408.62M | 723.62M | -345.46M | -223.24M | -337.73M |
| Net Income | -422.60M | -412.78M | 673.73M | -352.09M | -231.80M | 1.60B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.18B | 1.30B | 1.66B | 937.12M | 1.24B | 1.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 737.04M | 854.42M | 893.71M | 776.93M | 783.12M | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 35.74M | 62.02M | 56.99M | 72.00M | 85.66M | 97.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 75.88M | 104.11M | 122.24M | 126.10M | 137.90M | 145.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.11B | 1.19B | 1.54B | 811.02M | 1.10B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -384.73M | -377.29M | -391.53M | -297.06M | -314.36M | -413.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -380.41M | -372.98M | -389.84M | -296.06M | -309.48M | -407.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 405.91M | 377.18M | 363.44M | 239.57M | 243.26M | 1.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 9.13M | 8.68M | 14.44M | 5.43M | 2.35M | -765.77M |
Agios Pharma Technical Analysis
Positive
35.14
Price Trends
30.77
Positive
30.31
Positive
31.80
Positive
Market Momentum
3.04
Negative
77.30
Negative
85.59
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.06, above the 50-day MA of 30.77, and above the 200-day MA of 31.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.30 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.59 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGIO.
Agios Pharma Risk Analysis
Agios Pharma disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agios Pharma reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agios Pharma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
59 Neutral | $10.02B | -30.77 | -32.64% | ― | ― | -22.17% | |
56 Neutral | $4.24B | -9.27 | -52.20% | ― | ― | -7.88% | |
55 Neutral | $2.54B | -5.90 | -34.11% | ― | 78.34% | -161.91% | |
52 Neutral | $9.22B | -10.31 | 138.69% | ― | 351.53% | -54.81% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.97B | -3.10 | -54.32% | ― | 11.07% | 32.35% | |
46 Neutral | $4.19B | -19.80 | -29.80% | ― | -52.13% | 3.91% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AGIO
Agios Pharma
42.76
3.69
9.44%
IBRX
ImmunityBio
8.80
6.01
215.41%
DNLI
Denali Therapeutics
26.69
11.69
77.93%
NAMS
NewAmsterdam Pharma Company
35.83
14.19
65.57%
RXRX
Recursion Pharmaceuticals
3.72
-1.87
-33.45%
APGE
Apogee Therapeutics
133.25
96.23
259.94%
Agios Pharma Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Agios Pharma Shareholders Expand Equity Plan, Reelect Directors
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 18, 2026, Agios Pharmaceuticals’ shareholders approved an amendment to the company’s 2023 Stock Incentive Plan, adding 2,000,000 shares of common stock available for issuance, inc...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.