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Agios Pharma (AGIO)
NASDAQ:AGIO

Agios Pharma (AGIO) AI Stock Analysis

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Agios Pharma

(NASDAQ:AGIO)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▼(-0.19%Downside)
Agios Pharma's score is primarily influenced by its strong cash position and strategic pipeline developments, as highlighted in the earnings call. While the stock is technically stable and appears undervalued, financial performance concerns related to revenue inconsistencies and operational losses weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Commercial Partnerships
Agios Pharmaceuticals has established a commercial and distribution partnership with Avanzanite for Pyrukynd in Europe, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, which is viewed favorably as it aligns with their strategic focus.
Regulatory Progress
The FDA has indicated that an adcom is not planned for the PDUFA date, which is viewed as a positive update.
Research and Development
Phase 2 data from the RISE UP study in sickle cell disease have shown highly encouraging results, with superior hemoglobin increase and reduction in vaso-occlusive crises compared to competitors.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
The company reported $8.7 million in 1Q25 revenues for mitapivat, missing consensus estimates of $10.1 million.
Revenue Sharing
Analyst's price target for Agios has been lowered due to the expectation of a revenue share agreement with Avanzanite, which initially favors Avanzanite in terms of revenue distribution.
Safety Concerns
Concerns over hepatocellular injury have negatively impacted AGIO stock, which is down approximately 45% due to these issues observed in thalassemia patients.

Agios Pharma (AGIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAgios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of medicines in the field of cellular metabolism and adjacent areas of biology. The company offers PYRUKYND (mitapivat) an activator of both wild-type and a variety of mutant pyruvate kinase, PK, enzymes for the treatment of hemolytic anemias; and AG-946 that is in Phase I clinical study for treating hemolytic anemias and other indications. Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyAgios Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary therapeutic products. The company's revenue streams include product sales, collaborations, and licensing agreements. Agios has partnered with various pharmaceutical companies to co-develop and commercialize its products, which provides milestone payments and royalties as a significant source of income. Additionally, the company may receive research funding and grants to support its drug discovery and development efforts. By advancing its pipeline of potential therapies through clinical trials and achieving regulatory approvals, Agios aims to expand its market presence and increase its revenue from product sales.

Agios Pharma Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 21.49%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Agios demonstrates a strong financial position and significant progress in their pipeline, particularly with PYRUKYND. However, the decline in revenue and increased operating expenses present challenges. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with an emphasis on future growth potential.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Position
Agios has approximately $1.4 billion in cash, ensuring financial independence to fund new approvals, product launches, and pipeline advancement.
PYRUKYND Commercialization Plans
Potential approval and launch of PYRUKYND for thalassemia in the U.S. are expected in September 2025, with sickle cell disease approval anticipated in 2026.
Positive Phase 3 Trial Results
Announced positive top-line results from The ACTIVATE-Kids Phase 3 trial and successful completion of enrollment for the Phase 3 RISE UP study.
Pipeline Advancements
Plans to complete enrollment in Phase 2b study for tebapivat in MDS and initiate a Phase 2 study in sickle cell disease by mid-2025.
Strategic Corporate Development
Hiring of Krishnan Viswanadhan as Chief Corporate Development and Strategy Officer to maximize asset potential and explore expansion opportunities.
Negative Updates
Revenue Fluctuations
First quarter 2025 revenue saw a 19% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 due to end-year stocking and revenue reserve adjustments.
Higher Operating Expenses
Increase in SG&A expenses by $10.5 million in Q1 2025 due to commercial activities and headcount for PYRUKYND's potential thalassemia approval.
Company Guidance
During Agios' first quarter 2025 conference call, the company provided guidance highlighting key financial and strategic metrics. Agios reported a strong balance sheet with approximately $1.4 billion in cash, which they believe will support financial independence for upcoming product launches and pipeline advancements. The company is preparing for a potential U.S. approval and launch of their lead product, PYRUKYND (mitapivat), for thalassemia by September 7, 2025, followed by sickle cell disease in 2026. Agios anticipates significant revenue growth, with PYRUKYND representing a multi-billion dollar opportunity across these indications. The commercial organization has been strategically expanded to support these launches, with a sales team doubled in size for thalassemia. Additionally, Agios is progressing multiple pipeline programs, including the Phase 2b study of tebapivat in low-risk MDS and a planned Phase 2 study in sickle cell disease, demonstrating their commitment to advancing their diverse portfolio while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.

Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Agios Pharma faces financial challenges typical in the biotechnology industry, with fluctuating revenue, significant operational losses, and reliance on non-operational income. The strong equity position offers some financial cushion, but operational efficiency and cash flow generation need improvement for long-term viability.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Agios Pharma has shown inconsistent revenue trends with a significant decline from $203.2M in 2020 to $36.5M in 2024. Despite this, the TTM data shows a slight revenue increase compared to 2024. Gross profit margins have been generally high, but EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative due to substantial operating losses, indicating challenges in achieving operational profitability. The net profit margin is skewed by a significant net income figure in some periods due to non-operational factors.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company maintains a strong equity position with low leverage, evidenced by the debt-to-equity ratio and high equity ratio. Stockholders' equity consistently exceeds total liabilities, showcasing financial stability. However, the company needs to manage its debt levels prudently given the negative EBIT and EBITDA, which could stress financial health if cash reserves diminish.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Agios Pharma's cash flow statements reveal negative operating and free cash flows, indicating the company is not generating cash from its operations. While investing cash flow is positive, largely due to asset sales, the reliance on such activities is unsustainable long-term. The company must improve operational cash generation to ensure financial resilience.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue37.03M36.50M26.82M14.24M0.00203.20M
Gross Profit30.82M32.33M17.32M12.54M-18.78M200.39M
EBITDA-437.33M-425.74M-384.86M-380.48M-337.73M-326.13M
Net Income665.99M673.73M-352.09M-74.56M1.60B-335.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.56B1.66B937.12M1.24B1.44B852.95M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments893.38M893.71M776.93M1.10B1.29B670.54M
Total Debt52.94M56.99M72.00M85.66M97.09M105.20M
Total Liabilities88.99M122.24M126.10M137.90M145.76M453.45M
Stockholders Equity1.47B1.54B811.02M1.10B1.29B399.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-403.77M-391.53M-297.06M-314.36M-413.06M-305.67M
Operating Cash Flow-401.46M-389.84M-296.06M-309.48M-407.32M-290.76M
Investing Cash Flow351.47M363.44M239.57M243.26M1.25B75.75M
Financing Cash Flow10.20M14.44M5.43M2.35M-765.77M261.52M

Agios Pharma Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price36.07
Price Trends
50DMA
31.63
Positive
100DMA
31.30
Positive
200DMA
37.46
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.83
Positive
RSI
65.05
Neutral
STOCH
78.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.26, above the 50-day MA of 31.63, and below the 200-day MA of 37.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGIO.

Agios Pharma Risk Analysis

Agios Pharma disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agios Pharma reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Agios Pharma Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$1.85B12.2624.71%20.62%14.08%
62
Neutral
$2.09B3.2060.26%25.96%
51
Neutral
$1.33B-422.66%49.29%44.52%
50
Neutral
$1.65B-70.58%100.03%64.22%
49
Neutral
AU$2.49B4.37-64.25%2.83%36.51%13.14%
46
Neutral
$1.45B-9.32%28.12%-11.01%
39
Underperform
$1.53B-39.49%-20.03%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AGIO
Agios Pharma
36.07
-5.12
-12.43%
TVTX
Travere Therapeutics
15.01
6.29
72.13%
ARQT
Arcutis Biotherapeutics
13.82
3.39
32.50%
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings
32.16
-0.38
-1.17%
VERA
Vera Therapeutics
24.00
-11.98
-33.30%
JANX
Janux Therapeutics Inc
24.45
-15.00
-38.02%

Agios Pharma Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Agios Pharma Increases Shares in Stock Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 18, 2025

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 18, Agios Pharmaceuticals’ stockholders approved an amendment to the 2023 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing the number of shares available for issuance by 2,500,000. Additionally, the stockholders elected two directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year, reflecting strong support for the company’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGIO) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agios Pharma stock, see the AGIO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025