Agios Pharma (AGIO)
NASDAQ:AGIO
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Agios Pharma
(NASDAQ:AGIO)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▼(-20.32% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is held back primarily by heavy, sustained losses and significant cash burn despite strong gross margins and low leverage. Technicals also reflect a weak trend with negative MACD and price below key moving averages. The latest earnings call was a meaningful positive (strong YoY revenue growth, early launch traction, and >$1B liquidity), but execution, spend, and clinical/regulatory risks still temper the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Commercial Launch Traction
Q1 net revenue growth of 138% and early AQVESME uptake (rapid prescription increase) demonstrate Agios’s ability to commercialize a specialty hematology therapy. Durable launch execution and clinician adoption improve the likelihood of scaling revenues and funding R&D over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
High and Persistent Cash Burn
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow of roughly -$380M annually indicates heavy cash burn. Unless revenues scale materially or expenses are reined in, Agios may need to raise capital, which could dilute shareholders and complicate funding of clinical programs and commercialization over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial Launch Traction
Q1 net revenue growth of 138% and early AQVESME uptake (rapid prescription increase) demonstrate Agios’s ability to commercialize a specialty hematology therapy. Durable launch execution and clinician adoption improve the likelihood of scaling revenues and funding R&D over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Agios Pharma (AGIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)902.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.90
Revenue Growth78.34%
EPS Growth-161.91%
CountryUS
Employees486
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.25
Shares Outstanding59,471,607
10 Day Avg. Volume884,537
30 Day Avg. Volume902,680
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.32
Price to Sales (P/S)29.21
P/FCF Ratio-4.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue23.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit28.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.29Price Target Upside8.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-6.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$91.59M
Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of medicines in the field of cellular metabolism and adjacent areas of biology. The company offers PYRUKYND (mitapivat) an activator of both wild-ty...
How the Company Makes Money
Agios primarily makes money from product sales of PYRUKYND (mitapivat). Revenue is generated when the company sells PYRUKYND to specialty distributors and/or specialty pharmacies, net of standard biopharmaceutical deductions such as rebates, charg...
Agios Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong early commercial momentum and significant regulatory and pipeline progress—highlighted by 138% YoY revenue growth, a successful AQVESME U.S. launch with 242 prescriptions, planned sNDA submission for mitapivat in sickle cell disease, and a robust cash position (> $1B). Offsetting items included rising R&D and SG&A spend, limited ex‑U.S. revenue and quarter‑to‑quarter variability, a prescription‑to‑initiation lag as launch broadens, a 60% lower tebapivat exposure signal in low‑risk MDS necessitating higher‑dose evaluation, and some regulatory/competitive uncertainty that will need to be resolved by upcoming data and confirmatory trials. Overall, the positives (strong growth, launch execution, regulatory progress and ample liquidity) materially outweigh the near‑term challenges and risks.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Delivered $20.7 million in net revenues in Q1 2026, representing 138% year‑over‑year growth; U.S. sales accounted for $18.8 million (≈90.8% of total) with $1.9 million ex‑U.S.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Spend in Q1
First quarter R&D expense was $81 million (an increase of roughly $8 million, or ~11% year‑over‑year) and SG&A was $48 million (up approximately $7 million, or ~17% year‑over‑year), driven by workforce‑related expenses, process development and commercial launch activities, including higher stock‑based compensation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Delivered $20.7 million in net revenues in Q1 2026, representing 138% year‑over‑year growth; U.S. sales accounted for $18.8 million (≈90.8% of total) with $1.9 million ex‑U.S.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agios provided detailed fiscal and operational guidance and milestone timing: Q1 net revenues were $20.7M (up 138% YoY) composed of $18.8M U.S. and $1.9M ex‑U.S.; R&D expense was $81M (≈+$8M YoY) and SG&A was $48M (≈+$7M YoY); cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities exceeded $1.0B. Management expects 2026 operating expenses to be approximately flat versus 2025 and reiterated prior PKD revenue guidance of roughly $45–50M for a full year. Commercially, the U.S. AQVESME thalassemia launch had 242 prescriptions by REMS‑certified physicians as of March 31 (44 as of Jan 31), the REMS was operational at end of January, and average prescription‑to‑initiation is expected to normalize to ~10–12 weeks. Key clinical/regulatory milestones: sNDA filing for mitapivat in sickle cell disease planned in Q2 under accelerated approval with a confirmatory trial to be defined, Phase IIb topline tebapivat data in low‑risk MDS (10/15/20 mg; 8 consecutive weeks transfusion independence primary endpoint) expected in H1, Phase II tebapivat sickle cell data in H2, healthy volunteer AG‑236 and AG‑181 readouts in 2026, a pipeline representing >$10B TAM in 2030, and tebapivat early PK/PD signals (half‑life ~87–93 hrs; mean Hb increase ~1.9 g/dL at 5 mg; noted ~60% lower exposure in low‑risk MDS vs healthy volunteers).Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 66.05M | 54.03M | 36.50M | 26.82M | 14.24M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 54.21M | 42.51M | 32.33M | 17.32M | 12.54M | -18.78M |
| EBITDA | -470.27M | -466.95M | -420.08M | -384.86M | -380.48M | -337.73M |
| Net Income | -422.60M | -412.78M | 673.73M | -352.09M | -231.80M | 1.60B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.18B | 1.30B | 1.66B | 937.12M | 1.24B | 1.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 737.04M | 854.42M | 893.71M | 776.93M | 783.12M | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 35.74M | 62.02M | 56.99M | 72.00M | 85.66M | 97.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 75.88M | 104.11M | 122.24M | 126.10M | 137.90M | 145.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.11B | 1.19B | 1.54B | 811.02M | 1.10B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -384.73M | -377.29M | -391.53M | -297.06M | -314.36M | -413.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -380.41M | -372.98M | -389.84M | -296.06M | -309.48M | -407.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 405.91M | 377.18M | 363.44M | 239.57M | 243.26M | 1.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 9.13M | 8.68M | 14.44M | 5.43M | 2.35M | -765.77M |
Agios Pharma Technical Analysis
Positive
35.14
Price Trends
29.93
Positive
28.68
Positive
33.79
Positive
Market Momentum
1.47
Negative
69.76
Neutral
67.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.33, above the 50-day MA of 29.93, and above the 200-day MA of 33.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGIO.
Agios Pharma Risk Analysis
Agios Pharma disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agios Pharma reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agios Pharma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $6.29B | -16.51 | -36.77% | ― | ― | -30.45% | |
55 Neutral | $3.49B | -13.39 | -27.47% | ― | -50.61% | 32.78% | |
52 Neutral | $1.86B | -4.98 | -63.98% | ― | 26.92% | 10.74% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $2.96B | -5.63 | -50.13% | ― | ― | -15.30% | |
49 Neutral | $7.64B | -7.91 | 64.30% | ― | 668.31% | 34.94% | |
48 Neutral | $1.64B | -5.02 | -34.11% | ― | 78.34% | -161.91% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AGIO
Agios Pharma
27.56
-0.76
-2.68%
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57.16%
RXRX
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.