Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.44B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 24.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.19
• Revenue Growth: -32.98%
• EPS Growth: -18.46%
• Country: US
• Employees: 800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 514,190,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,580,886
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,041,244
• PEG Ratio: -0.57
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 31.50
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 36.77
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -39.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.51
• 1Y Price Target: $7.75
• Price Target Upside: 65.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $62.09M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(6.84% Upside)

Recursion Pharmaceuticals' overall stock score reflects its financial challenges and mixed technical indicators. However, positive corporate events and a strategic outlook from the earnings call provide some optimism. The company's innovative platform and partnerships offer potential for future growth, but financial instability and valuation concerns weigh heavily on the score.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Position

A strong cash position ensures operational stability and flexibility to invest in R&D, supporting long-term growth without immediate need for external funding.

Innovative Drug Discovery Platform

The advanced platform enhances Recursion's drug discovery capabilities, potentially accelerating the development of new therapies and strengthening its competitive edge.

Positive Clinical Trial Results

Successful trial outcomes for REC-4881 validate Recursion's AI-driven approach, potentially leading to new treatment options and strengthening its market position.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue trends raise concerns about the company's ability to sustain operations and fund future growth initiatives, impacting long-term viability.

Negative Profit Margins

Persistent negative profit margins indicate challenges in cost management and profitability, potentially limiting the company's ability to reinvest in growth.

Challenges in Drug Safety

Safety challenges in drug development can delay product launches and increase R&D costs, impacting Recursion's ability to bring new therapies to market.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the decoding biology by integrating technological innovations across biology, chemistry, automation, data science, and engineering to industrialize drug discovery. The company develops REC-994, which is in Phase IIa clinical trial to treat cerebral cavernous malformation; REC-2282 for the treatment of neurofibromatosis type 2; REC-4881 to treat familial adenomatous polyposis; and REC-3599, which is in Phase I clinical trial to treat GM2 gangliosidosis. Its preclinical stage product includes REC-3964 to treat Clostridium difficile colitis; REC-64917 for the treat of neural or systemic inflammation; REC-65029 to treat HRD-negative ovarian cancer; REC-648918 to enhance anti-tumor immune; REC-2029 for the treatment of wnt-mutant hepatocellular carcinoma; REC-14221 to treat solid and hematological malignancies; and REC-64151 for the treatment of immune checkpoint resistance in KRAS/STK11 mutant non-small cell lung cancer. The company has collaboration and agreement with Bayer AG; the University of Utah Research Foundation; Ohio State Innovation Foundation; Chromaderm, Inc.; and Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited. Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

How the Company Makes Money

Recursion Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through collaborations and partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, wherein it licenses its technology and shares the resulting drug development costs and potential profits. Additionally, the company may receive milestone payments and royalties based on the commercial success of products developed through these partnerships. Recursion also invests in its own drug candidates, aiming to bring novel therapies to market, which can generate revenue through sales once these products are approved by regulatory agencies.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Recursion Pharmaceuticals is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses impacting profitability and cash flow. While the company maintains a low level of debt, its inability to generate positive returns on equity and cash from operations poses risks to its financial stability. Continued focus on cost management and revenue growth is essential for improving financial performance.

Income Statement

Recursion Pharmaceuticals has been experiencing declining revenue, with a significant drop of 32.44% in the TTM period. The company also faces negative profit margins, with a net profit margin of -10.07% and an EBIT margin of -10.04% in the TTM. This indicates ongoing challenges in achieving profitability and managing costs effectively.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.096, suggesting limited leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the return on equity is negative at -76.07%, indicating that the company is not generating returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is relatively stable, but overall financial health is impacted by persistent losses.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a negative operating cash flow, with a ratio of -2.34 in the TTM, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient cash from operations. Although there is a slight improvement in free cash flow growth of 14.52%, the overall cash flow situation remains challenging, with free cash flow to net income ratio at 1.02.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	43.53M	58.84M	43.88M	39.68M	10.00M	3.41M
Gross Profit	-40.84M	13.60M	1.29M	-8.59M	10.00M	3.41M
EBITDA	-636.92M	-426.72M	-307.63M	-227.66M	-175.12M	-81.70M
Net Income	-715.54M	-463.66M	-328.07M	-239.48M	-186.48M	-87.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.40B	1.45B	653.70M	701.29M	610.35M	298.58M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	659.84M	594.35M	391.56M	549.91M	516.56M	262.13M
Total Debt	82.37M	108.49M	50.67M	51.01M	11.48M	15.66M
Total Liabilities	352.58M	413.82M	190.26M	215.48M	67.41M	504.87M
Stockholders Equity	1.05B	1.03B	463.44M	485.81M	542.94M	-206.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-448.04M	-372.87M	-300.33M	-120.88M	-198.41M	-52.13M
Operating Cash Flow	-441.17M	-359.17M	-287.78M	-83.52M	-158.61M	-45.40M
Investing Cash Flow	259.83M	260.06M	-10.23M	193.25M	-271.74M	-8.74M
Financing Cash Flow	400.17M	304.12M	140.13M	154.34M	458.54M	246.13M

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RXRX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.48, below the 50-day MA of 5.00, and below the 200-day MA of 5.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RXRX.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARQT	60 Neutral	$3.47B	-78.36	-28.17%	―	129.21%	80.35%
ADPT	53 Neutral	$2.46B	-30.66	-37.18%	―	42.57%	60.03%
RXRX	52 Neutral	$2.44B	-2.45	-91.06%	―	-32.98%	-18.46%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
AGIO	48 Neutral	$1.48B	-3.56	-27.57%	―	36.26%	-158.98%
GLPG	47 Neutral	$2.07B	-4.25	-16.45%	―	―	―
IRON	43 Neutral	$3.30B	-16.88	-34.78%	―	―	-34.96%

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Reports Positive TUPELO Trial Results

On December 8, 2025, Recursion Pharmaceuticals announced positive results from the Phase 1b/2 TUPELO trial of REC-4881, an investigational MEK1/2 inhibitor for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP). The trial demonstrated rapid and durable reductions in polyp burden, with 75% of patients showing improvement after 12 weeks of treatment, and 82% maintaining reductions 12 weeks post-treatment. These findings are significant given the lack of approved therapies for FAP, a condition with a high risk of colorectal cancer. The results validate Recursion’s AI-driven approach and suggest REC-4881 could offer a non-surgical treatment option, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and providing hope for patients with FAP.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Registers Resale of 7 Million Shares

On November 26, 2025, Recursion Pharmaceuticals filed a prospectus supplement to register for resale over 7 million shares of its Class A common stock issued to Tempus AI, Inc. as payment for annual license fees. This move, made under an exemption from registration, highlights Recursion’s strategic financial maneuvers to manage its equity and partnerships, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Announces New CEO Appointment

Recursion Pharmaceuticals announced significant leadership changes effective January 1, 2026, with Najat Khan, Ph.D., appointed as the new Chief Executive Officer and President, while Christopher Gibson, Ph.D., transitions to Chair of the Board. This leadership transition is accompanied by a strong financial performance, with the company achieving over $500 million in milestone and upfront payments from partnerships, including a recent $30 million milestone from Roche and Genentech. The company continues to advance its internal and partnered programs, leveraging its AI-driven platform, Recursion OS, to drive innovation in drug discovery and development.

Roche Exercises Option with Recursion Pharmaceuticals

On October 29, 2025, Recursion Pharmaceuticals announced that Roche exercised its option for the Microglia Map, a pioneering whole genome map of brain immune cells, under their collaboration agreement. As a result, Roche will pay Recursion an Acceptance Fee of $30 million, highlighting the significant impact of this collaboration on Recursion’s operations and industry positioning.