Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)
NASDAQ:RXRX
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Recursion Pharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ:RXRX)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-7.41% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is anchored by mixed fundamentals: a strong cash position and accelerating revenue growth are offset by very large losses and heavy cash burn. Technicals are also weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while the latest earnings call was constructive on runway extension, cost reductions, and early clinical proof-of-concept, partially balancing the financial and momentum risks.
Positive Factors
Platform efficiency & discovery speed
Recursion’s integrated ML-driven wet lab and data stack materially shortens discovery cycles and reduces synthesis needs versus peers. That persistent time and cost advantage improves hit rates, enables more iterative learning, and supports repeatable program generation—durable competitive moats for 2–6+ months as the platform scales.
Negative Factors
High cash burn & negative cash flow
Recursion’s large, persistent negative operating and free cash flows mean continuing material cash burn even after efficiencies. Over 2–6 months this increases the probability of further financing or milestone-dependence, constrains discretionary R&D spend, and raises dilution risk if milestone receipts underperform expectations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform efficiency & discovery speed
Recursion’s integrated ML-driven wet lab and data stack materially shortens discovery cycles and reduces synthesis needs versus peers. That persistent time and cost advantage improves hit rates, enables more iterative learning, and supports repeatable program generation—durable competitive moats for 2–6+ months as the platform scales.
Read all positive factors
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.74B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.35
Revenue Growth26.92%
EPS Growth10.74%
CountryUS
Employees800
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.21
Shares Outstanding521,950,700
10 Day Avg. Volume11,327,419
30 Day Avg. Volume12,440,809
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)1.62
Price to Sales (P/S)24.50
P/FCF Ratio-4.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-33.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.00Price Target Upside111.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$75.19M
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the decoding biology by integrating technological innovations across biology, chemistry, automation, data science, and engineering to industrialize drug...
How the Company Makes Money
Recursion makes money primarily through (1) collaboration and partnership revenue and (2) other income sources such as grants, with potential future upside from commercializing its own drug candidates if and when they receive regulatory approval.
...
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments. This insight helps assess the company's diversification and dependency on specific segments.
Breaks down revenue by different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments. This insight helps assess the company's diversification and dependency on specific segments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRecursion Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized meaningful progress across clinical proof-of-concept (notably REC-4881 in FAP), strong platform and discovery efficiency metrics, and material partnership inflows that collectively extend runway and validate the AI-enabled strategy. Offsetting these positives are concentration of important catalysts in the near term, industry-wide high failure probabilities, outstanding clinical validation needs for tolerability claims, and reliance on future partner milestones to sustain funding beyond early 2028. On balance, the highlights (clinical proof of concept, cash runway extension, 35% cost reduction, platform scale, and repeatable partner milestones) meaningfully outweigh the program and funding risks cited, supporting an overall positive tone while acknowledging near-term binary execution risks.Positive Updates
First AI-enabled clinical proof of concept (REC-4881) in FAP
Phase 2 showed a 43% median polyp burden reduction at 4 mg QD with 75% of patients responding; durable responses observed after a three-month off-treatment period. FDA engagement on registrational pathway on track for 2026 and 18+ cohort enrollment underway.
Negative Updates
High program early-stage risk and binary upcoming catalysts
Multiple key programs remain early-stage with binary go/no-go or readout risk: IND-enabling decisions for PI3K and ENPP1 expected H2 2026, RBM39 early Phase 1 update in 2026, and many other clinical updates pushed into 2027 — reflecting substantial near-term execution risk.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
First AI-enabled clinical proof of concept (REC-4881) in FAP
Phase 2 showed a 43% median polyp burden reduction at 4 mg QD with 75% of patients responding; durable responses observed after a three-month off-treatment period. FDA engagement on registrational pathway on track for 2026 and 18+ cohort enrollment underway.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated that Recursion finished 2025 with $754M in cash, has extended its runway to early 2028, and expects 2026 cash operating expenses under $390M (non‑GAAP) after a 35% pro forma YoY reduction in operating expenses and coming in ~10% below prior guidance; cumulative partner inflows exceed $500M (including $134M from Sanofi to date: $100M upfront + ~$34M milestones), with partner programs carrying >$300M of potential milestones and tiered royalties up to double digits, and milestone receipts are probability‑weighted in cash forecasts (a milestone was hit earlier this month). Platform efficiency metrics tied to this guidance include synthesizing ~330 compounds versus ~2,500 industry (~90% fewer), shortening target‑to‑candidate timelines to ~17 months versus ~40–42 months (~2× faster), generating >100M in silico molecules, holding >50 PB of multimodal data, and leveraging >300M real‑world lives in the clinical AI platform (improving enrollment 1.3–1.6× and starting studies up to 3 months faster). Near‑term program timing: FDA engagement for REC‑4881 in 2026, RBM39 early Phase 1 safety/PK in 2026, go/no‑go decisions for PI3K and ENPP1 in H2 2026, and additional REC‑4881 and CDK7 combo data in 2027.Recursion Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 74.68M | 58.84M | 43.88M | 39.68M | 10.00M |
| Gross Profit | -46.27M | 13.60M | 1.29M | -8.59M | 10.00M |
| EBITDA | -559.38M | -426.72M | -307.63M | -227.66M | -175.12M |
| Net Income | -644.76M | -463.66M | -328.07M | -239.48M | -186.48M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.47B | 1.45B | 653.70M | 701.29M | 610.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 743.29M | 594.35M | 391.56M | 549.91M | 516.56M |
| Total Debt | 77.97M | 108.49M | 50.67M | 51.01M | 11.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 343.26M | 413.82M | 190.26M | 215.48M | 67.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.13B | 1.03B | 463.44M | 485.81M | 542.94M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -378.28M | -372.87M | -300.33M | -120.88M | -198.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -371.81M | -359.17M | -287.78M | -83.52M | -158.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.87M | 260.06M | -10.23M | 193.25M | -271.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 521.53M | 304.12M | 140.13M | 154.34M | 458.54M |
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.78
Price Trends
3.44
Positive
3.96
Negative
4.62
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
63.07
Neutral
83.72
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RXRX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.27, above the 50-day MA of 3.44, and below the 200-day MA of 4.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RXRX.
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis
Recursion Pharmaceuticals disclosed 107 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Recursion Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $1.84B | 0.59 | 11.16% | ― | 331.24% | 396.11% | |
63 Neutral | $2.80B | -228.91 | -10.26% | ― | 91.34% | 88.80% | |
52 Neutral | $1.74B | -2.84 | -63.98% | ― | 26.92% | 10.74% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $1.67B | -3.82 | -34.11% | ― | 48.03% | -160.22% | |
48 Neutral | $2.08B | -41.41 | -30.00% | ― | 54.77% | 63.63% | |
43 Neutral | $2.52B | -13.21 | -32.80% | ― | ― | -50.17% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
RXRX
Recursion Pharmaceuticals
3.46
-2.04
-37.09%
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Recursion Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Names New Chief Medical Officer
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Recursion Pharmaceuticals announced that seasoned oncology drug developer Vicki Goodman, M.D., will become Chief Medical Officer effective April 6, 2026, as current CMO David Mauro, M.D., Ph.D., transitions out of the role but r...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Recursion Highlights AI Validation, Extends Cash Runway to 2028
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Recursion reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results and a business update, highlighting its first AI-enabled clinical validation in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) and continued advancement of five differentiate...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.