Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.75B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.53M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: 42.57%
• EPS Growth: 60.03%
• Country: US
• Employees: 619
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 152,665,190
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,185,475
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,534,261
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.93
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -42.68
• 1Y Price Target: $20.25
• Price Target Upside: 12.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.59
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $266.12M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.00 ▼(-11.31% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak profitability and challenged cash flow trends despite strong revenue growth and solid gross margins. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call and recent updates show improving MRD fundamentals (raised guidance, reduced cash burn, segment profitability), while technicals and valuation remain only modestly supportive.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth and healthy gross margins indicate robust demand and efficient operations, supporting long-term business expansion.

Strategic Partnerships

Partnerships with major pharma companies like Pfizer enhance Adaptive's market position and potential for innovation in autoimmune therapies.

MRD Business Expansion

Significant growth in MRD business reflects strong market acceptance and potential for sustained revenue increases in oncology diagnostics.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability issues highlight challenges in cost management and achieving economies of scale, impacting long-term financial health.

Cash Flow Pressures

Negative cash flow growth suggests difficulties in generating sufficient cash to support operations and investments, affecting financial stability.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Regulatory uncertainties could delay product adoption and limit market potential, impacting revenue growth and strategic planning.

Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases. The company offers immunoSEQ, a platform and core immunosequencing product that is used to answer translational research questions, as well as to discover new prognostic and diagnostic signals; and T-Detect COVID for the confirmation of past COVID-19 infection. It also provides clonoSEQ, a clinical diagnostic product for the detection and monitoring of minimal residual disease in patients with multiple myeloma, B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, as well as available as a CLIA-validated laboratory developed test for patients with other lymphoid cancers; and immunoSEQ T-MAP COVID for vaccine developers and researchers to measure the T-cell immune response to vaccines. In addition, the company offers a pipeline of clinical products and services that are used for the diagnosing, monitoring, and treatment of diseases, such as cancer, autoimmune conditions, and infectious diseases. It serves the life sciences research, clinical diagnostics, and drug discovery applications. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation has strategic collaborations with Genentech, Inc. for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of neoantigen directed T cell therapies for the treatment of a range of cancers; and Microsoft Corporation to develop diagnostic tests for the early detection of various diseases from a single blood test. The company was formerly known as Adaptive TCR Corporation and changed its name to Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation in December 2011. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Adaptive Biotechnologies generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its diagnostic testing services, specifically the clonoSEQ assay, which is used by healthcare providers to monitor patients with blood cancers. Additionally, the company earns revenue from partnerships and collaborations with pharmaceutical companies, focusing on developing immunotherapies and companion diagnostics. These partnerships often involve upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on the sales of resulting therapies. Furthermore, Adaptive may also generate income through research grants and funding for its innovative technologies aimed at enhancing immune-based treatments.

Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is strong (+23.17% TTM) and gross margin is healthy (66.04%), but profitability remains weak (net margin -59.07%, ROE -60.87%) and cash flow trends are pressured (FCF growth -23.99% TTM). Leverage appears manageable (debt-to-equity 0.47).

Income Statement

Adaptive Biotechnologies shows a strong revenue growth rate of 23.17% in the TTM, indicating positive momentum. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 66.04%, but the persistent negative net profit margin of -59.07% highlights ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, which is manageable. However, the return on equity is negative at -60.87%, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 41.67%, suggesting a reasonable level of equity financing but highlighting the need for improved profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -23.99% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.03, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	252.75M	178.96M	170.28M	185.31M	154.34M	98.38M
Gross Profit	181.57M	106.88M	94.72M	127.40M	105.04M	75.85M
EBITDA	-57.14M	-128.76M	-189.27M	-175.21M	-193.34M	-144.34M
Net Income	-79.61M	-159.49M	-225.25M	-200.19M	-207.28M	-146.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	490.61M	539.38M	661.13M	856.62M	923.34M	1.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	212.77M	222.29M	346.40M	498.20M	353.06M	688.27M
Total Debt	213.64M	89.39M	98.77M	108.00M	111.74M	107.86M
Total Liabilities	286.36M	336.89M	352.86M	392.52M	319.24M	373.15M
Stockholders Equity	204.44M	202.71M	308.40M	464.17M	603.99M	743.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-62.94M	-98.88M	-167.02M	-200.29M	-254.47M	-168.49M
Operating Cash Flow	-60.53M	-95.21M	-156.32M	-183.94M	-192.73M	-149.68M
Investing Cash Flow	68.32M	77.79M	129.65M	2.90M	181.21M	-117.04M
Financing Cash Flow	8.87M	241.00K	2.25M	132.26M	27.15M	293.59M

Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.67, above the 50-day MA of 16.49, and above the 200-day MA of 12.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADPT.

Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HRMY	81 Outperform	$2.08B	11.35	25.93%	―	21.13%	50.86%
ARQT	60 Neutral	$3.27B	-75.40	-28.17%	―	129.21%	80.35%
IMVT	56 Neutral	$5.51B	-9.67	-95.93%	―	―	-27.70%
RXRX	52 Neutral	$2.52B	-2.68	-91.06%	―	-32.98%	-18.46%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ADPT	49 Neutral	$2.75B	-33.53	-37.18%	―	42.57%	60.03%
IMCR	47 Neutral	$1.67B	-56.71	-7.52%	―	27.51%	38.72%

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporate Events

Adaptive Biotechnologies Reports Strong Preliminary Q4 2025 Growth

On January 12, 2026, Adaptive Biotechnologies reported preliminary, unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting strong growth across its MRD business led by adoption of its clonoSEQ test. Total revenue reached approximately $72 million for the quarter and $277 million for 2025, up 51% and 55%, respectively, from 2024, while MRD revenue rose to about $62 million in the quarter and $212 million for the year, representing gains of 54% and 46%; full-year MRD revenue excluding regulatory milestone payments grew 45%. clonoSEQ test volume climbed 43% to around 30,000 tests in the fourth quarter and 39% for the year to roughly 105,600 tests, and the company ended 2025 with about $227 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, excluding Digital Biotechnologies, Inc. cash, while cautioning that these figures are preliminary and subject to change as year-end closing and audits are completed and indicating that net loss is expected to narrow compared with 2024.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADPT) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adaptive Biotechnologies stock, see the ADPT Stock Forecast page.

Adaptive Biotechnologies subsidiary completes key Series A financing

On December 30, 2025, Adaptive Biotechnologies announced that its 70%-owned subsidiary, Digital Biotechnologies, Inc., held an initial closing of a Series A Preferred Stock financing round, with total anticipated proceeds of up to $15 million. Upon completion of the full Series A round, Adaptive expects to retain a nearly 50% ownership stake in Digital Biotechnologies while continuing to consolidate the subsidiary’s financial results, signaling a shift toward a more balanced ownership structure that still preserves strategic and accounting control over this early-stage business.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADPT) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adaptive Biotechnologies stock, see the ADPT Stock Forecast page.