Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT)
NASDAQ:ADPT
Top Page
Adaptive Biotechnologies
(NASDAQ:ADPT)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▼(-2.85% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by weak profitability and challenged cash flow trends despite strong revenue growth and solid gross margins. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call and recent updates show improving MRD fundamentals (raised guidance, reduced cash burn, segment profitability), while technicals and valuation remain only modestly supportive.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth and healthy gross margins indicate robust demand and efficient operations, supporting long-term business expansion.
Strategic Partnerships
Partnerships with major pharma companies like Pfizer enhance Adaptive's market position and potential for innovation in autoimmune therapies.
MRD Business Expansion
Significant growth in MRD business reflects strong market acceptance and potential for sustained revenue increases in oncology diagnostics.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Persistent profitability issues highlight challenges in cost management and achieving economies of scale, impacting long-term financial health.
Cash Flow Pressures
Negative cash flow growth suggests difficulties in generating sufficient cash to support operations and investments, affecting financial stability.
Regulatory Uncertainty
Regulatory uncertainties could delay product adoption and limit market potential, impacting revenue growth and strategic planning.
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth42.57%
EPS Growth60.03%
CountryUS
Employees619
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding152,665,190
10 Day Avg. Volume1,760,413
30 Day Avg. Volume1,703,601
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)4.35
Price to Sales (P/S)4.93
P/FCF Ratio-8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-46.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside27.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAdaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases. The company offers immunoSEQ, a platform and core immunosequencing product that is used to answer translational research questions, as well as to discover new prognostic and diagnostic signals; and T-Detect COVID for the confirmation of past COVID-19 infection. It also provides clonoSEQ, a clinical diagnostic product for the detection and monitoring of minimal residual disease in patients with multiple myeloma, B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, as well as available as a CLIA-validated laboratory developed test for patients with other lymphoid cancers; and immunoSEQ T-MAP COVID for vaccine developers and researchers to measure the T-cell immune response to vaccines. In addition, the company offers a pipeline of clinical products and services that are used for the diagnosing, monitoring, and treatment of diseases, such as cancer, autoimmune conditions, and infectious diseases. It serves the life sciences research, clinical diagnostics, and drug discovery applications. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation has strategic collaborations with Genentech, Inc. for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of neoantigen directed T cell therapies for the treatment of a range of cancers; and Microsoft Corporation to develop diagnostic tests for the early detection of various diseases from a single blood test. The company was formerly known as Adaptive TCR Corporation and changed its name to Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation in December 2011. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyAdaptive Biotechnologies generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its diagnostic testing services, specifically the clonoSEQ assay, which is used by healthcare providers to monitor patients with blood cancers. Additionally, the company earns revenue from partnerships and collaborations with pharmaceutical companies, focusing on developing immunotherapies and companion diagnostics. These partnerships often involve upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on the sales of resulting therapies. Furthermore, Adaptive may also generate income through research grants and funding for its innovative technologies aimed at enhancing immune-based treatments.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Clonoseq Tests Delivered
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong commercial execution in the MRD business: high revenue and volume growth, meaningful ASP expansion, improved gross margins and adjusted EBITDA turning positive, plus a healthy cash balance and tangible Immune Medicine data monetization. Challenges were highlighted but appear manageable: GAAP net losses remain, Immune Medicine is still loss-making though improving, some guidance depends on payer negotiations and timing, and competition and operational seasonality present risks. On balance, the company presented multiple credible levers for revenue and margin expansion and a clear path to positive free cash flow in 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Revenue Growth
Total company revenue reported $277.0M for FY2025 (55% YoY growth); Q4 revenue $71.7M (51% YoY). On a basis excluding noncash Genentech amortization, FY revenue was $235.7M (42% YoY).
MRD (clonoSEQ) Outperformance
Full-year MRD revenue grew 46% YoY to $212M (including $19.5M in milestones). ClonoSEQ clinical testing revenue grew 64% for FY2025 and 59% in Q4 YoY; Q4 volumes reached a record 30,038 tests, up 43% YoY and 11% sequentially.
ASP Expansion and Payer Wins
U.S. average selling price (ASP) rose to $1,307 per test for the year (up 17% YoY) and exited Q4 at ~$1,350. Company renegotiated 8 major payer contracts and signed new agreements (Anthem, Centene, Humana, Aetna, Horizon, multiple Blues, Florida, LA Care), supporting a target ASP of ~$1,400 in 2026.
Material Margin Improvement
Sequencing gross margin (ex-milestones/licensing/Genentech) improved to 71% in Q4 (up 12 percentage points YoY) and 66% for the full year (up from 53% in 2024), helped by production efficiencies and NovaSeq X+ transition.
Profitability Progress and Cash Position
Total company adjusted EBITDA improved to $12.2M for FY2025 from a loss of $80.4M in 2024; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $4.1M vs. a loss of $16.4M a year ago. MRD adjusted EBITDA was positive $15.2M in 2025. Year-end cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $227M.
Commercial & Operational Execution
Broad-based volume drivers: blood-based testing reached 47% of clonoSEQ tests in Q4 (up from 41% YoY); community testing represented ~33% of tests in Q4 (up sequentially). Epic integrations completed in 8 accounts during Q4 (total 173 integrated accounts now driving ~40% of ordering volume). Commercial payer cash collections improved by 74% YoY.
Immune Medicine Data and Partnerships
Immune Medicine scaled to >5 million paired TCRs covering ~20,000 antigens and ~50 HLA types. Immune Medicine revenue grew (Q4 $9.8M vs $3.8M prior year; FY $23.4M, +17% YoY) and the company announced two distinct Pfizer data licensing/target-discovery partnerships.
Clear 2026 Guidance and Path to Cash Flow
2026 guidance: MRD revenue $255M–$265M (midpoint implies 22% YoY growth, 30% excluding milestones), clonoSEQ volume expected to grow >30% YoY, blood-based testing to exceed 50% of MRD volume, community >35% share, ASP target ~ $1,400. Company expects positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow by end of 2026.
Negative Updates
Reported Net Loss Despite EBITDA Improvement
Net loss was $59.5M for FY2025 and $13.6M in Q4, reflecting ongoing GAAP losses even as adjusted EBITDA turned positive.
Immune Medicine Still Loss-Making
Immune Medicine adjusted EBITDA loss was $31.0M in 2025 (improved from $37.9M in 2024) and the business remains a net cash burn, though targeted to decline to $15M–$20M in 2026.
Dependence on Payer Contract Timing for ASPs
2026 ASP target (~$1,400) is partially dependent on closing two large national payer contracts; timing and negotiation outcomes present execution risk and could cause ASP variability during the year.
Loss of Genentech Collaboration Economics
Genentech collaboration amortization was accelerated and recognized in Q3 following termination; there are no ongoing Genentech collaboration economics after Q3, removing a prior noncash revenue stream and increasing reliance on core commercial performance.
Competitive and Operational Risks
New competitive offerings (e.g., Quest's flow cytometry product) could create pricing/market-pressure dynamics despite claims around lower sensitivity. Operational factors such as seasonality and weather disrupted Q1 sample logistics (FedEx outages, clinic closures) and can affect short-term volume timing.
High Operating Expense Base and Near-Term Increase
Full-year operating expenses were $334.1M in 2025 (down 2% YoY), but 2026 operating expense guidance is $350M–$360M (≈6% growth at midpoint), indicating continued substantial investment and a higher near-term cost base.
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 MRD revenue to $255–$265M (including $8–$9M in milestones), which at the midpoint implies ~22% YoY growth (or ~30% excluding milestones) and is expected to be ~45% H1 / 55% H2 weighted; clonoSEQ test volumes are guided to grow >30% YoY with blood-based testing rising to >50% of MRD volume and community testing to >35%, aided by ~40 additional EMR integrations, and a target average ASP of about $1,400 per test. Full-year operating expenses (including cost of revenue) are forecast at $350–$360M (≈6% growth at midpoint), Immune Medicine net cash burn is targeted at $15–$20M, Q1 remains the highest quarterly cash use (annual bonuses), and the company expects positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow by the end of 2026 (exiting Q4). The plan builds on a year-end cash balance of $227M and the operational levers (blood shift, community penetration, ASP expansion, EMR, and pharma milestones) cited to drive margin expansion.Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue growth is strong (TTM +23.17%) and gross margin is healthy (66.04%), but profitability remains weak (net margin -59.07%, negative ROE -60.87%) and cash flow trends are pressured (TTM free cash flow growth -23.99%).Income Statement
Adaptive Biotechnologies shows a strong revenue growth rate of 23.17% in the TTM, indicating positive momentum. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 66.04%, but the persistent negative net profit margin of -59.07% highlights ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, which is manageable. However, the return on equity is negative at -60.87%, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 41.67%, suggesting a reasonable level of equity financing but highlighting the need for improved profitability.40
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -23.99% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.03, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 252.75M | 178.96M | 170.28M | 185.31M | 154.34M | 98.38M |
| Gross Profit | 181.57M | 106.88M | 94.72M | 127.40M | 105.04M | 75.85M |
| EBITDA | -57.14M | -128.76M | -189.27M | -175.21M | -193.34M | -144.34M |
| Net Income | -79.61M | -159.49M | -225.25M | -200.19M | -207.28M | -146.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 490.61M | 539.38M | 661.13M | 856.62M | 923.34M | 1.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 212.77M | 222.29M | 346.40M | 498.20M | 353.06M | 688.27M |
| Total Debt | 213.64M | 89.39M | 98.77M | 108.00M | 111.74M | 107.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 286.36M | 336.89M | 352.86M | 392.52M | 319.24M | 373.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 204.44M | 202.71M | 308.40M | 464.17M | 603.99M | 743.27M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -62.94M | -98.88M | -167.02M | -200.29M | -254.47M | -168.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -60.53M | -95.21M | -156.32M | -183.94M | -192.73M | -149.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 68.32M | 77.79M | 129.65M | 2.90M | 181.21M | -117.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.87M | 241.00K | 2.25M | 132.26M | 27.15M | 293.59M |
Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Neutral
16.47
Price Trends
17.31
Negative
16.30
Positive
13.52
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Positive
40.72
Neutral
20.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.94, below the 50-day MA of 17.31, and above the 200-day MA of 13.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ADPT.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis
Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.15B | 11.47 | 25.93% | ― | 21.13% | 50.86% | |
60 Neutral | $3.19B | -73.54 | -28.17% | ― | 129.21% | 80.35% | |
56 Neutral | $5.07B | -8.50 | -95.93% | ― | ― | -27.70% | |
52 Neutral | $2.03B | -1.97 | -91.06% | ― | -32.98% | -18.46% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $2.64B | -30.61 | -37.18% | ― | 42.57% | 60.03% | |
47 Neutral | $1.59B | -52.93 | -7.52% | ― | 27.51% | 38.72% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
16.47
8.46
105.62%
IMVT
Immunovant
24.06
3.70
18.17%
ARQT
Arcutis Biotherapeutics
26.07
13.65
109.90%
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings
36.41
-2.37
-6.11%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
30.92
0.95
3.17%
RXRX
Recursion Pharmaceuticals
3.56
-3.68
-50.83%
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Adaptive Biotechnologies Reports Strong Preliminary Q4 2025 Growth
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Adaptive Biotechnologies reported preliminary, unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting strong growth across its MRD business led by adoption of its clonoSEQ test. Total revenue reached approximately $72 million for the quarter and $277 million for 2025, up 51% and 55%, respectively, from 2024, while MRD revenue rose to about $62 million in the quarter and $212 million for the year, representing gains of 54% and 46%; full-year MRD revenue excluding regulatory milestone payments grew 45%. clonoSEQ test volume climbed 43% to around 30,000 tests in the fourth quarter and 39% for the year to roughly 105,600 tests, and the company ended 2025 with about $227 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, excluding Digital Biotechnologies, Inc. cash, while cautioning that these figures are preliminary and subject to change as year-end closing and audits are completed and indicating that net loss is expected to narrow compared with 2024.
The most recent analyst rating on (ADPT) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adaptive Biotechnologies stock, see the ADPT Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Adaptive Biotechnologies subsidiary completes key Series A financing
Positive
Dec 30, 2025
On December 30, 2025, Adaptive Biotechnologies announced that its 70%-owned subsidiary, Digital Biotechnologies, Inc., held an initial closing of a Series A Preferred Stock financing round, with total anticipated proceeds of up to $15 million. Upon completion of the full Series A round, Adaptive expects to retain a nearly 50% ownership stake in Digital Biotechnologies while continuing to consolidate the subsidiary’s financial results, signaling a shift toward a more balanced ownership structure that still preserves strategic and accounting control over this early-stage business.
The most recent analyst rating on (ADPT) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adaptive Biotechnologies stock, see the ADPT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.