Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)
NASDAQ:ADPT
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Adaptive Biotechnologies
(NASDAQ:ADPT)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-3.65% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/28/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and higher leverage) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a relatively strong earnings-call outlook, including solid 2026 MRD growth guidance and a stated path to positive EBITDA and free cash flow by the end of 2026.
Positive Factors
MRD commercial growth
Sustained high single-digit to double-digit MRD growth reflects entrenched demand for clonoSEQ across hospitals, community settings and pharma trials. Volume scale, repeat testing nature and growing blood-based share support recurring per-sample revenue and durable commercial expansion over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow, even after improvement, signals ongoing cash burn that sustains funding risk. If execution slips or payer/milestone timing lags, the company may need external capital, diluting shareholders or increasing leverage before structural self-funding is achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
MRD commercial growth
Sustained high single-digit to double-digit MRD growth reflects entrenched demand for clonoSEQ across hospitals, community settings and pharma trials. Volume scale, repeat testing nature and growing blood-based share support recurring per-sample revenue and durable commercial expansion over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth42.57%
EPS Growth60.03%
CountryUS
Employees619
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding153,981,570
10 Day Avg. Volume1,966,475
30 Day Avg. Volume2,235,773
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.65
Price to Book (P/B)11.26
Price to Sales (P/S)8.90
P/FCF Ratio-50.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-65.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.86Price Target Upside43.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$282.41M
Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases. The company offers immunoSEQ, a platform and core immunosequencing product that is used to ...
How the Company Makes Money
Adaptive Biotechnologies makes money primarily through (1) immune repertoire sequencing and data/analytics offerings sold to biopharma and academic customers for research and drug development, and (2) clinical diagnostic testing revenue. In its re...
Adaptive Biotechnologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Clonoseq Tests Delivered
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong commercial execution in the MRD business: high revenue and volume growth, meaningful ASP expansion, improved gross margins and adjusted EBITDA turning positive, plus a healthy cash balance and tangible Immune Medicine data monetization. Challenges were highlighted but appear manageable: GAAP net losses remain, Immune Medicine is still loss-making though improving, some guidance depends on payer negotiations and timing, and competition and operational seasonality present risks. On balance, the company presented multiple credible levers for revenue and margin expansion and a clear path to positive free cash flow in 2026.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Revenue Growth
Total company revenue reported $277.0M for FY2025 (55% YoY growth); Q4 revenue $71.7M (51% YoY). On a basis excluding noncash Genentech amortization, FY revenue was $235.7M (42% YoY).
Negative Updates
Reported Net Loss Despite EBITDA Improvement
Net loss was $59.5M for FY2025 and $13.6M in Q4, reflecting ongoing GAAP losses even as adjusted EBITDA turned positive.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Revenue Growth
Total company revenue reported $277.0M for FY2025 (55% YoY growth); Q4 revenue $71.7M (51% YoY). On a basis excluding noncash Genentech amortization, FY revenue was $235.7M (42% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 MRD revenue to $255–$265M (including $8–$9M in milestones), which at the midpoint implies ~22% YoY growth (or ~30% excluding milestones) and is expected to be ~45% H1 / 55% H2 weighted; clonoSEQ test volumes are guided to grow >30% YoY with blood-based testing rising to >50% of MRD volume and community testing to >35%, aided by ~40 additional EMR integrations, and a target average ASP of about $1,400 per test. Full-year operating expenses (including cost of revenue) are forecast at $350–$360M (≈6% growth at midpoint), Immune Medicine net cash burn is targeted at $15–$20M, Q1 remains the highest quarterly cash use (annual bonuses), and the company expects positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow by the end of 2026 (exiting Q4). The plan builds on a year-end cash balance of $227M and the operational levers (blood shift, community penetration, ASP expansion, EMR, and pharma milestones) cited to drive margin expansion.Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 276.98M | 178.96M | 170.28M | 185.31M | 154.34M |
| Gross Profit | 205.62M | 106.88M | 94.72M | 127.40M | 105.04M |
| EBITDA | -29.85M | -128.76M | -189.27M | -175.21M | -193.34M |
| Net Income | -59.50M | -159.49M | -225.25M | -200.19M | -207.28M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 512.74M | 539.38M | 661.13M | 856.62M | 923.34M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 226.98M | 222.29M | 346.40M | 498.20M | 353.06M |
| Total Debt | 280.58M | 89.39M | 98.77M | 108.00M | 111.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 287.74M | 336.89M | 352.86M | 392.52M | 319.24M |
| Stockholders Equity | 218.79M | 202.71M | 308.40M | 464.17M | 603.99M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -48.95M | -98.88M | -167.02M | -200.29M | -254.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -45.99M | -95.21M | -156.32M | -183.94M | -192.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 37.95M | 77.79M | 129.65M | 2.90M | 181.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 30.40M | 241.00K | 2.25M | 132.26M | 27.15M |
Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Positive
14.53
Price Trends
14.91
Negative
16.04
Negative
14.73
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Negative
52.13
Neutral
45.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.76, below the 50-day MA of 14.91, and below the 200-day MA of 14.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADPT.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis
Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.68B | 13.56 | 19.84% | ― | 21.13% | 50.86% | |
63 Neutral | $2.99B | -228.91 | -10.26% | ― | 129.21% | 80.35% | |
62 Neutral | $5.11B | -10.43 | -65.80% | ― | ― | -27.70% | |
53 Neutral | $1.60B | -19.61 | -6.93% | ― | 27.51% | 38.72% | |
52 Neutral | $1.81B | -2.84 | -63.98% | ― | -32.98% | -18.46% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $2.18B | -41.41 | -30.00% | ― | 42.57% | 60.03% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
14.53
7.04
93.99%
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13.71%
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3.54
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.