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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT)
NASDAQ:ADPT
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Adaptive Biotechnologies
(NASDAQ:ADPT)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(3.53% Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Adaptive Biotechnologies reported revenues above consensus, driven by strong MRD revenues and clonoSEQ volume growth.
Profitability
The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in the MRD business ahead of schedule, indicating better-than-expected financial performance.
Negative Factors
Market Competition
Shares currently trade at 6 times 2025 MRD revenue, and if it is successful in achieving profitability while still growing the MRD business at approximately 25%, there is material upside to shares.
Valuation
The valuation has now aligned with comparable companies, suggesting a possible period of consolidation.
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.99B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.78
Revenue Growth21.60%
EPS Growth44.48%
CountryUS
Employees619
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength50
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.17
Shares Outstanding152,273,910
10 Day Avg. Volume2,770,032
30 Day Avg. Volume2,010,326
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-18.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.75Price Target Upside5.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAdaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) is a biotechnology company specializing in the development of innovative genomic technologies to improve the diagnosis and treatment of diseases, particularly in the fields of oncology and immunology. The company focuses on harnessing the power of the adaptive immune system to create advanced tools for disease detection, monitoring, and therapeutic development. Its core products include its clonoSEQ platform for measuring minimal residual disease in blood cancers and immune profiling services that help in understanding immune responses to various diseases.
How the Company Makes MoneyAdaptive Biotechnologies generates revenue primarily through its diagnostic and research services. Key revenue streams include the sale of its clonoSEQ testing services, which are used by healthcare providers to monitor patients with blood cancers, as well as immune profiling services that cater to both clinical and research applications. The company also engages in partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for the development of new therapies, which can include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on product sales. Additionally, revenue is supplemented through collaborations with academic institutions and other organizations focused on advancing personalized medicine.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Clonoseq Tests Delivered
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataAdaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 18.01%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a robust performance with strong revenue growth, successful profitability in the MRD business, and improved financial metrics. While there are dependencies on milestone payments and future collaborations for continued growth, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
MRD Business Profitability
The MRD business achieved profitability this quarter, delivering approximately $2 million in positive adjusted EBITDA, with a 42% year-over-year revenue growth.
clonoSEQ Revenue Growth
clonoSEQ revenue grew 57% year-over-year in the second quarter, driven by strong demand across all reimbursed indications.
Sequencing Gross Margin Improvement
Total company sequencing gross margin improved by 14 percentage points year-over-year to 64%.
Increased Full-Year Guidance
Full year MRD revenue guidance was raised to a range of $190 million to $200 million, up from the previous range of $180 million to $190 million.
Strong Cash Position
Cash burn for the quarter was approximately $11 million, a 36% improvement over the same period last year, ending with a solid cash position of $222 million.
Positive Clinical and Pharma Volume Growth
Delivered over 25,300 tests, up 37% versus prior year, with blood-based testing representing 44% of MRD tests, up 40% from a year ago.
NCCN Guidelines Update
NCCN guidelines for multiple myeloma were updated to strengthen support for ID testing at diagnosis, reducing barriers to MRD testing and helping drive volume.
Negative Updates
Limited Impact from NeoGenomics Collaboration
The NeoGenomics collaboration is expected to have a material impact starting in 2026, with limited volume impact anticipated for the second half of 2025.
Dependency on Milestone Payments for Profitability
The company's profitability and cash flow positive status are partly reliant on milestone payments, which can be variable and affect financial stability.
Company Guidance
During the Adaptive Biotechnologies Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided optimistic guidance characterized by several key metrics. Adaptive's MRD business achieved profitability with approximately $2 million in positive adjusted EBITDA, driven by a 42% year-over-year increase in MRD revenue and significant clinical volume growth. The total company sequencing gross margin improved by 14 percentage points year-over-year, reaching 64%. Cash burn for the quarter improved by 36% compared to the previous year, amounting to approximately $11 million, with the company ending the quarter with a solid cash position of $222 million. Given these results, Adaptive raised its full-year guidance, projecting MRD revenue between $190 million and $200 million, up from the previous range of $180 million to $190 million, and forecasting cash burn between $45 million and $55 million, down from prior guidance of $50 million to $60 million.Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Adaptive Biotechnologies shows revenue growth but faces profitability and cash flow challenges. The debt level is manageable, but negative returns on equity and cash flow inefficiencies pose risks.Income Statement
Adaptive Biotechnologies shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has achieved a revenue growth rate of 8.28% TTM, indicating positive momentum. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -74.84%, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 61.06%, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight operational inefficiencies.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Adaptive Biotechnologies is moderately stable. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.46, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity is negative at -66.09%, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 36.18%, showing a reasonable level of equity financing.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.97, indicating that the company is not converting its earnings into cash effectively. Free cash flow growth is negative at -6.7%, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, showing some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 205.22M | 178.96M | 170.28M | 185.31M | 154.34M | 98.38M |
| Gross Profit | 135.53M | 106.88M | 94.72M | 127.40M | 105.04M | 75.85M |
| EBITDA | -98.63M | -128.76M | -189.27M | -167.98M | -193.34M | -144.34M |
| Net Income | -121.23M | -159.49M | -225.25M | -142.46M | -205.61M | -139.64M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 496.64M | 539.38M | 661.13M | 856.62M | 923.34M | 1.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 197.87M | 222.29M | 346.40M | 498.20M | 353.06M | 688.27M |
| Total Debt | 84.37M | 89.39M | 229.43M | 108.00M | 111.74M | 107.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 317.10M | 336.89M | 352.86M | 392.52M | 319.24M | 373.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 179.72M | 202.71M | 308.40M | 464.17M | 603.99M | 743.27M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -82.81M | -98.88M | -167.02M | -200.29M | -254.47M | -168.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -80.47M | -95.21M | -156.32M | -183.94M | -192.73M | -149.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 56.33M | 77.79M | 129.65M | 2.90M | 181.21M | -117.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 7.23M | 241.00K | 2.25M | 132.26M | 27.15M | 293.59M |
Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Positive
13.04
Price Trends
11.15
Positive
9.79
Positive
8.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.55
Negative
70.74
Negative
87.55
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.36, above the 50-day MA of 11.15, and above the 200-day MA of 8.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.74 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.55 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADPT.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis
Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $1.99B | ― | -57.55% | ― | 21.60% | 44.48% | |
58 Neutral | $1.66B | ― | -5.38% | ― | 26.90% | 62.72% | |
51 Neutral | $7.70B | -0.29 | -46.01% | 2.24% | 23.07% | -0.65% | |
50 Neutral | $922.73M | ― | -53.16% | ― | 636.99% | 27.10% | |
48 Neutral | $1.36B | ― | -113.22% | ― | 2133.71% | -15.38% | |
42 Neutral | $1.37B | ― | -86.86% | ― | ― | -82.75% | |
42 Neutral | $1.43B | ― | -63.96% | ― | ― | -36.92% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
13.04
8.23
171.10%
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics
2.55
-8.64
-77.21%
SNDX
Syndax Pharmaceuticals
15.74
-4.76
-23.22%
ETNB
89bio
9.23
0.73
8.59%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
32.88
-4.01
-10.87%
PHVS
Pharvaris
22.30
3.60
19.25%
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Adaptive Biotechnologies Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting
Positive
Jun 12, 2025
On June 10, 2025, Adaptive Biotechnologies held its annual shareholders meeting, where three proposals were voted on. These included the election of Chad Robins as a Class III director, an advisory vote on executive compensation for 2024, and the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent public accounting firm for 2025. All proposals were approved with significant support, reflecting strong shareholder confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.
The most recent analyst rating on (ADPT) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adaptive Biotechnologies stock, see the ADPT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.