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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT)
NASDAQ:ADPT
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Adaptive Biotechnologies
(NASDAQ:ADPT)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(34.75% Upside)
Adaptive Biotechnologies' strong earnings call performance and positive technical indicators are offset by financial challenges, including negative profitability and cash flow issues. The raised guidance and improved operational efficiencies provide a positive outlook, but valuation concerns and segment-specific challenges remain.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth in the clonoSEQ platform indicates robust demand and successful market penetration, supporting long-term revenue expansion.
Profitability in MRD Business
Achieving profitability in the MRD business reflects operational efficiency and sets a foundation for sustained financial health and growth.
Regulatory Approval
Positive regulatory developments enhance market credibility and can accelerate adoption, driving long-term growth in the MRD segment.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability challenges limit the company's ability to reinvest and grow, potentially impacting long-term financial stability.
High Operating Expenses
High operating expenses, driven by increased sales and marketing costs, can strain profitability and hinder financial flexibility over time.
Immune Medicine Segment Losses
Continued losses in the Immune Medicine segment highlight challenges in achieving profitability, which may affect overall company performance.
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.58B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.67
Revenue Growth42.57%
EPS Growth60.03%
CountryUS
Employees619
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding152,273,910
10 Day Avg. Volume1,640,448
30 Day Avg. Volume1,920,434
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)4.35
Price to Sales (P/S)4.93
P/FCF Ratio-8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-31.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.57Price Target Upside31.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAdaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) is a biotechnology company specializing in the development of innovative genomic technologies to improve the diagnosis and treatment of diseases, particularly in the fields of oncology and immunology. The company focuses on harnessing the power of the adaptive immune system to create advanced tools for disease detection, monitoring, and therapeutic development. Its core products include its clonoSEQ platform for measuring minimal residual disease in blood cancers and immune profiling services that help in understanding immune responses to various diseases.
How the Company Makes MoneyAdaptive Biotechnologies generates revenue primarily through its diagnostic and research services. Key revenue streams include the sale of its clonoSEQ testing services, which are used by healthcare providers to monitor patients with blood cancers, as well as immune profiling services that cater to both clinical and research applications. The company also engages in partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for the development of new therapies, which can include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on product sales. Additionally, revenue is supplemented through collaborations with academic institutions and other organizations focused on advancing personalized medicine.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Clonoseq Tests Delivered
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataAdaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong performance in MRD business profitability, improved gross margins, and a solid cash position, with a raised full-year guidance. However, there were challenges in Immune Medicine revenue and uncertainties in regulatory acceptance of MRD as an endpoint.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
MRD Business Profitability and Growth
The MRD business delivered adjusted EBITDA of $7 million, became cash flow positive, and grew revenue by 52% year-over-year. clonoSEQ clinical revenue grew 83% year-over-year with a test volume increase of 38%.
Improved Gross Margins
Total company sequencing gross margin improved 10 percentage points year-over-year to 66%.
Strong Cash Position
Cash burn reduced by 51% compared to last year, ending the quarter with $217 million in cash.
Full Year Guidance Raised
Full-year MRD revenue guidance increased to $202 million to $207 million, with expectations of approximately 104,000 tests for the year.
Expansion of Reimbursement Footprint
Achieved first large commercial payer coverage in DLBCL and two major payers in CLL, bringing total CLL covered lives to over 260 million.
Negative Updates
Immune Medicine Revenue Decline
Immune Medicine revenue from pharma and academic services was $3.4 million, down from $5.5 million a year ago.
Uncertainty in Regulatory Acceptance
Recent agency views on surrogate endpoints have introduced some uncertainty in MRD gaining broader acceptance as an endpoint for accelerated approval in lymphoid cancers.
Conclusion of Genentech Partnership
Partnership with Genentech concluded following its internal portfolio prioritization, releasing Adaptive from exclusivity and any further obligations.
Company Guidance
During Adaptive Biotechnologies' third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a robust financial performance and provided updated guidance. The MRD business achieved significant milestones, including $7 million in adjusted EBITDA and becoming cash flow positive. MRD revenue rose by 52% year-over-year, driven by a 38% increase in test volumes and an 83% growth in clonoSEQ clinical revenue. The company conducted over 27,100 tests, with a notable increase in U.S. clonoSEQ ASP to over $1,340 per test. They ended the quarter with $217 million in cash, a reduction in cash burn by 51% year-over-year. Consequently, Adaptive raised its full-year MRD revenue guidance to $202-$207 million and lowered its operating expense and cash burn forecasts. The company continues to focus on operational efficiencies, with total company sequencing gross margin improving to 66% and operating expenses remaining stable.Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Adaptive Biotechnologies shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage but inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. Cash flow issues persist, with negative growth and coverage ratios.Income Statement
Adaptive Biotechnologies shows a strong revenue growth rate of 23.17% in the TTM, indicating positive momentum. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 66.04%, but the persistent negative net profit margin of -59.07% highlights ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, which is manageable. However, the return on equity is negative at -60.87%, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 41.67%, suggesting a reasonable level of equity financing but highlighting the need for improved profitability.40
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -23.99% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.03, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 252.75M | 178.96M | 170.28M | 185.31M | 154.34M | 98.38M |
| Gross Profit | 181.57M | 106.88M | 94.72M | 127.40M | 105.04M | 75.85M |
| EBITDA | -57.14M | -128.76M | -189.27M | -175.21M | -193.34M | -144.34M |
| Net Income | -79.61M | -159.49M | -225.25M | -200.19M | -207.28M | -146.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 490.61M | 539.38M | 661.13M | 856.62M | 923.34M | 1.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 212.77M | 222.29M | 346.40M | 498.20M | 353.06M | 688.27M |
| Total Debt | 213.64M | 89.39M | 98.77M | 108.00M | 111.74M | 107.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 286.36M | 336.89M | 352.86M | 392.52M | 319.24M | 373.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 204.44M | 202.71M | 308.40M | 464.17M | 603.99M | 743.27M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -62.94M | -98.88M | -167.02M | -200.29M | -254.47M | -168.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -60.53M | -95.21M | -156.32M | -183.94M | -192.73M | -149.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 68.32M | 77.79M | 129.65M | 2.90M | 181.21M | -117.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.87M | 241.00K | 2.25M | 132.26M | 27.15M | 293.59M |
Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.10
Price Trends
15.01
Negative
13.41
Positive
10.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
37.14
Neutral
9.16
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.26, below the 50-day MA of 15.01, and above the 200-day MA of 10.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ADPT.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis
Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $1.96B | 10.72 | 25.93% | ― | 21.13% | 50.86% | |
65 Neutral | $2.58B | -20.78 | -37.18% | ― | 42.57% | 60.03% | |
59 Neutral | $3.06B | ― | -28.17% | ― | 129.21% | 80.35% | |
52 Neutral | $1.81B | ― | -7.52% | ― | 27.51% | 38.72% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | $4.16B | ― | -95.93% | ― | ― | -27.70% | |
40 Neutral | $2.16B | ― | -91.06% | ― | -32.98% | -18.46% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
14.10
9.42
201.28%
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IMCR
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RXRX
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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporate Events
Adaptive Biotechnologies Reports Strong Q3 2025 Growth
Nov 6, 2025
Adaptive Biotechnologies, a commercial-stage biotechnology company, focuses on translating the genetics of the adaptive immune system into clinical products for diagnosing and treating diseases, primarily operating in the biotechnology sector with a unique approach to immune-driven diagnostics and therapeutics.
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ Earnings Call Highlights Growth
Aug 7, 2025
Adaptive Biotechnologies Reports Strong Earnings and Positive Outlook
Adaptive Biotechnologies Reports Strong Q2 2025 Growth
Aug 6, 2025
Adaptive Biotechnologies is a commercial-stage biotechnology company focused on leveraging the adaptive immune system to develop clinical products for diagnosing and treating diseases, primarily operating in the biotechnology sector with a unique emphasis on immune-driven diagnostics and therapeutics.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.