Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT)
NASDAQ:ADPT
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Adaptive Biotechnologies
(NASDAQ:ADPT)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(0.21% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals (ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and meaningfully higher leverage). The latest earnings call is a clear positive—raised MRD guidance, strong growth/margins, and a stated path to positive EBITDA/FCF in 2026—but technicals are only neutral and valuation remains constrained by unprofitable earnings.
Positive Factors
MRD revenue growth and guidance
Raised MRD guidance and 53% YoY growth signal durable demand for clonoSEQ diagnostics and predictable volume scaling. Higher guided volumes and revenue create multi-quarter visibility into topline growth and support investments in capacity and commercialization.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and debt load
A substantially higher debt load reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk if cash generation stalls. Persistent operating losses or wider-than-expected cash burn would increase interest and principal pressure, constraining strategic optionality over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
MRD revenue growth and guidance
Raised MRD guidance and 53% YoY growth signal durable demand for clonoSEQ diagnostics and predictable volume scaling. Higher guided volumes and revenue create multi-quarter visibility into topline growth and support investments in capacity and commercialization.
Read all positive factors
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.31B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.39
Revenue Growth55.87%
EPS Growth66.29%
CountryUS
Employees619
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.40
Shares Outstanding153,981,570
10 Day Avg. Volume1,842,389
30 Day Avg. Volume2,178,321
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.65
Price to Book (P/B)11.26
Price to Sales (P/S)8.90
P/FCF Ratio-50.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-59.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.67Price Target Upside42.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$282.36M
Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases. The company offers immunoSEQ, a platform and core immunosequencing product that is used to ...
How the Company Makes Money
Adaptive Biotechnologies makes money primarily through (1) immune repertoire sequencing and data/analytics offerings sold to biopharma and academic customers for research and drug development, and (2) clinical diagnostic testing revenue. In its re...
Adaptive Biotechnologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Clonoseq Tests Delivered
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrays a company with strong, broad-based MRD momentum: double-digit revenue growth, volume records, margin expansion, a raised MRD revenue guide, growing backlog, and improving MRD profitability. Challenges are concentrated in the immune medicine business (declining revenue and losses), company-level net loss and elevated operating expenses, milestone lumpiness, and reimbursement/regulatory uncertainty. Taken together the positives—notably durable clinical adoption, pricing gains, margin improvement, a large and growing backlog, and a solid cash position—outweigh the negatives, which are largely isolated or acknowledged with mitigations in progress.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $70.9M, up 45% year over year, driven primarily by MRD which accounted for ~95% of revenue.
Negative Updates
Immune Medicine Revenue and Profitability Pressure
Immune medicine revenue was $3.8M, down 26% YoY, and segment adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.4M, reflecting timing of samples/processing and continued investment needs.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $70.9M, up 45% year over year, driven primarily by MRD which accounted for ~95% of revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full-year MRD revenue guidance to $260–$270 million (up from $255–$265M), which includes $9 million of MRD milestone revenue recognized in Q1 (and no additional milestones expected), with the midpoint implying ~25% YoY growth (or ~33% ex-milestones) and MRD seasonality of ~45% H1 / 55% H2; they now expect MRD volumes to grow at least 35% in 2026 (Q1 clonoSEQ volume ~32,600, +9% sequential) and continue to target a U.S. ASP of ~$1,400 per test (Q1 ASP $1,360, +11% YoY). Q1 sequencing gross margin was 70% (up 8 percentage points YoY) and management is targeting >70% (with a ~75% “north star”); backlog was ~$254M (+24% YoY), total revenue in Q1 was $70.9M (+45% YoY) with MRD representing ~95%, cash at quarter end was ~$222M, full-year total operating expense guidance is $350–$360M (≈75% allocated to MRD, ~20% to immune medicine), expected cash burn $15–$20M, and the company is reiterating its goal of positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow for 2026.Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 276.98M | 178.96M | 170.28M | 185.31M | 154.34M |
| Gross Profit | 205.62M | 106.88M | 94.72M | 127.40M | 105.04M |
| EBITDA | -29.85M | -128.76M | -189.27M | -175.21M | -193.34M |
| Net Income | -59.50M | -159.49M | -225.25M | -200.19M | -207.28M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 512.74M | 539.38M | 661.13M | 856.62M | 923.34M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 226.98M | 222.29M | 346.40M | 498.20M | 353.06M |
| Total Debt | 280.58M | 89.39M | 98.77M | 108.00M | 111.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 287.74M | 336.89M | 352.86M | 392.52M | 319.24M |
| Stockholders Equity | 218.79M | 202.71M | 308.40M | 464.17M | 603.99M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -48.95M | -98.88M | -167.02M | -200.29M | -254.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -45.99M | -95.21M | -156.32M | -183.94M | -192.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 37.95M | 77.79M | 129.65M | 2.90M | 181.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 30.40M | 241.00K | 2.25M | 132.26M | 27.15M |
Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Positive
14.47
Price Trends
14.69
Negative
16.02
Negative
14.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
51.73
Neutral
61.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.91, below the 50-day MA of 14.69, and below the 200-day MA of 14.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADPT.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis
Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.90B | 23.98 | 19.84% | ― | 21.51% | 8.01% | |
63 Neutral | $3.02B | -67.46 | -10.26% | ― | 91.34% | 88.80% | |
62 Neutral | $5.84B | -10.43 | -65.80% | ― | ― | -2.53% | |
54 Neutral | $1.81B | -3.46 | -63.98% | ― | 26.92% | 10.74% | |
53 Neutral | $1.56B | 29.49 | -6.93% | ― | 29.17% | 30.64% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $2.31B | -26.94 | -30.00% | ― | 55.87% | 66.29% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
14.43
5.16
55.66%
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28.67
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24.17
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78.77%
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings
32.78
-1.31
-3.84%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
30.73
0.94
3.16%
RXRX
Recursion Pharmaceuticals
3.43
-0.96
-21.87%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.