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Adaptive Biotechnologies
(NASDAQ:ADPT)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(12.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
ADPT scores as a mixed setup: improving operating performance is outweighed by elevated balance-sheet leverage and still-negative cash generation, which caps the financial-performance score. Offsetting that, technicals are strong (price above major averages with positive MACD) and the latest earnings call was constructive (raised MRD guidance, margin expansion, and 2026 profitability/FCF targets). Valuation remains a drag due to ongoing losses (negative P/E) and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Durable MRD revenue growth and clinical adoption
Sustained, broad-based adoption of clonoSEQ (rapid volume and clinician growth plus strong MRD revenue gain and raised MRD guidance) signals recurring, test-driven demand. Durable clinician adoption and higher ASPs imply repeatable unit economics and predictable volume tailwinds over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and weakened capital structure
Material rise in debt relative to equity tightens financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. For an unprofitable biotech, elevated leverage constrains investment optionality, increases funding risk for strategic initiatives, and lengthens the path to self-sustaining operations if growth slows.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable MRD revenue growth and clinical adoption
Sustained, broad-based adoption of clonoSEQ (rapid volume and clinician growth plus strong MRD revenue gain and raised MRD guidance) signals recurring, test-driven demand. Durable clinician adoption and higher ASPs imply repeatable unit economics and predictable volume tailwinds over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Adaptive Biotechnologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and operational efficiency.
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and operational efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.61B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth50.13%
EPS Growth50.40%
CountryUS
Employees624
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.41
Shares Outstanding160,044,390
10 Day Avg. Volume2,698,502
30 Day Avg. Volume3,452,404
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.65
Price to Book (P/B)11.26
Price to Sales (P/S)8.90
P/FCF Ratio-50.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.07Price Target Upside12.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$292.37M
Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, founded in 2009 and headquartered in Seattle, Washington (operating as Adaptive TCR Corporation until its name change in December 2011), is a commercial-stage entity focused on pioneering an immune medicine pl...
How the Company Makes Money
Adaptive Biotechnologies primarily generates revenue from two main sources: (1) diagnostic and clinical testing, and (2) research and development (R&D) services/partnerships leveraging its immune repertoire sequencing platform and resulting datase...
Adaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrays a company with strong, broad-based MRD momentum: double-digit revenue growth, volume records, margin expansion, a raised MRD revenue guide, growing backlog, and improving MRD profitability. Challenges are concentrated in the immune medicine business (declining revenue and losses), company-level net loss and elevated operating expenses, milestone lumpiness, and reimbursement/regulatory uncertainty. Taken together the positives—notably durable clinical adoption, pricing gains, margin improvement, a large and growing backlog, and a solid cash position—outweigh the negatives, which are largely isolated or acknowledged with mitigations in progress.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $70.9M, up 45% year over year, driven primarily by MRD which accounted for ~95% of revenue.
Negative Updates
Immune Medicine Revenue and Profitability Pressure
Immune medicine revenue was $3.8M, down 26% YoY, and segment adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.4M, reflecting timing of samples/processing and continued investment needs.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $70.9M, up 45% year over year, driven primarily by MRD which accounted for ~95% of revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full-year MRD revenue guidance to $260–$270 million (up from $255–$265M), which includes $9 million of MRD milestone revenue recognized in Q1 (and no additional milestones expected), with the midpoint implying ~25% YoY growth (or ~33% ex-milestones) and MRD seasonality of ~45% H1 / 55% H2; they now expect MRD volumes to grow at least 35% in 2026 (Q1 clonoSEQ volume ~32,600, +9% sequential) and continue to target a U.S. ASP of ~$1,400 per test (Q1 ASP $1,360, +11% YoY). Q1 sequencing gross margin was 70% (up 8 percentage points YoY) and management is targeting >70% (with a ~75% “north star”); backlog was ~$254M (+24% YoY), total revenue in Q1 was $70.9M (+45% YoY) with MRD representing ~95%, cash at quarter end was ~$222M, full-year total operating expense guidance is $350–$360M (≈75% allocated to MRD, ~20% to immune medicine), expected cash burn $15–$20M, and the company is reiterating its goal of positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow for 2026.Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 308.08M | 276.98M | 178.96M | 170.28M | 185.31M | 154.34M |
| Gross Profit | 232.40M | 205.62M | 106.88M | 94.72M | 127.40M | 105.04M |
| EBITDA | -15.96M | -29.85M | -128.76M | -189.27M | -175.21M | -193.34M |
| Net Income | -63.85M | -59.50M | -159.49M | -225.25M | -200.19M | -207.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 640.68M | 512.74M | 539.38M | 661.13M | 856.62M | 923.34M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 344.25M | 226.98M | 222.29M | 346.40M | 498.20M | 353.06M |
| Total Debt | 410.50M | 280.58M | 89.39M | 98.77M | 108.00M | 111.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 490.02M | 287.74M | 336.89M | 352.86M | 392.52M | 319.24M |
| Stockholders Equity | 142.91M | 218.79M | 202.71M | 308.40M | 464.17M | 603.99M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -24.03M | -48.95M | -98.88M | -167.02M | -200.29M | -254.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -21.01M | -45.99M | -95.21M | -156.32M | -183.94M | -192.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -25.30M | 37.95M | 77.79M | 129.65M | 2.90M | 181.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 173.03M | 30.40M | 241.00K | 2.25M | 132.26M | 27.15M |
Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Positive
22.27
Price Trends
19.82
Positive
16.82
Positive
16.70
Positive
Market Momentum
1.14
Negative
64.89
Neutral
79.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.54, above the 50-day MA of 19.82, and above the 200-day MA of 16.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADPT.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis
Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.04B | 13.98 | 20.06% | ― | 20.71% | -5.53% | |
71 Outperform | $3.36B | -1,398.96 | -1.41% | ― | 95.29% | 98.21% | |
57 Neutral | $3.61B | -55.40 | -32.64% | ― | 50.13% | 50.40% | |
54 Neutral | $7.97B | -13.89 | -68.16% | ― | ― | -1.22% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.59B | -2.50 | -54.32% | ― | 11.07% | 32.35% | |
48 Neutral | $1.72B | -90.30 | -4.83% | ― | 23.64% | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
24.60
12.91
110.44%
IMVT
Immunovant
39.28
23.32
146.12%
ARQT
Arcutis Biotherapeutics
27.10
11.74
76.43%
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings
38.24
3.57
10.30%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
33.29
1.19
3.71%
RXRX
Recursion Pharmaceuticals
3.17
-2.31
-42.15%
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Adaptive Biotechnologies CSO Transitions to Strategic Consulting Role
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
Adaptive Biotechnologies reported strong second-quarter 2026 results driven by its MRD business, which accounted for 92% of revenue and grew 33% year on year to $66.2 million. Total revenue rose 22% to $71.6 million, while clonoSEQ® test volu...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Adaptive Biotechnologies Issues Convertible Notes to Reshape Capital
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Adaptive Biotechnologies issued $345 million of 0% convertible senior notes due 2031, following an upsized $300 million private offering priced on June 17, 2026, with an additional $45 million purchased by initial buyers. The not...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Adaptive Biotechnologies Plans MRD and Immune Medicine Split
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Adaptive Biotechnologies announced a proposed private offering of $250 million in convertible senior notes due 2031, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $37.5 million. The senior unsecured notes, convertibl...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Adaptive Biotechnologies Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
At its annual meeting of shareholders held on June 5, 2026, Adaptive Biotechnologies shareholders elected two Class I directors to the board, reinstating Robert Hershberg, PhD, MD, with 71.81% of votes cast and electing Katey Owen, PhD, with 97.72...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.