Simon Property (SPG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $66.33B
• Dividend Yield: 4.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 4.18%
• EPS Growth: -5.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,600
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 9.35
• Shares Outstanding: 326,462,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,292,882
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,596,547
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 14.87
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.45
• 1Y Price Target: $200.53
• Price Target Upside: -1.29% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.71
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.18B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $224.00 ▲(10.26% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals (revenue recovery, higher cash generation, and improved profitability) but tempered by meaningful balance-sheet leverage and some sustainability/validation risk in the latest-year results. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, while valuation is mixed (strong yield but a high P/E). Earnings call tone and 2026 guidance were constructive, with higher interest expense and tenant/tariff risks as the main near-term headwinds.

Positive Factors

Cash generation and FCF improvement

Material FCF growth and higher operating cash flow strengthen the company's ability to fund dividends, buybacks, and redevelopment without relying solely on capital markets. Durable cash conversion supports capital returns and reinvestment through the next several years, bolstering financial flexibility.

Strong leasing momentum and rent growth

High leasing volume and consistent rent increases indicate durable tenant demand and pricing power across Simon's portfolio. Sustained lease productivity and rising base rents support long-term NOI growth and resilience of cash flows despite retail secular shifts.

Accretive development pipeline & strategic acquisitions

A large, yield-accretive redevelopment and development pipeline (blended yields ~9%) plus targeted acquisitions expand high-return inventory. This long-term program can materially lift NOI and diversify formats (mixed-use, outlets), enhancing growth beyond organic leasing.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and large debt load

High absolute debt and elevated leverage increase vulnerability to rising interest rates or weaker cash flows. While liquidity is sizable, the capital structure leaves less buffer for shocks and raises refinancing and coverage risk over the medium term if operating trends soften.

Profit volatility from one-time accounting gains

A sizeable non-cash acquisition gain materially inflated 2025 net income, creating volatility in reported profits and obscuring sustainable earnings power. Reliance on such one-offs complicates trend assessment and could mislead stakeholders about recurring cash-generative performance.

Tenant credit risk from tariffs and retail pressures

Tariff-driven cost pressures heighten default risk among smaller and mid-size retailers, threatening occupancy and percentage rent streams. Persistent tenant credit stress can erode rental collections and force higher leasing incentives, pressuring long-term NOI and portfolio cash stability.

Simon Property Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Simon is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company (Simon Property Group, NYSE: SPG). Our properties across North America, Europe and Asia provide community gathering places for millions of people every day and generate billions in annual sales.

How the Company Makes Money

Simon Property Group generates revenue primarily through leasing space to tenants in its shopping centers and malls. The company earns rental income from long-term leases with various tenants, which can include anchor stores, specialty retailers, and dining establishments. In addition to base rent, SPG often collects percentage rents, which are fees based on tenants' sales performance, providing an incentive for both parties to drive foot traffic and sales. The company also earns income from property management fees and development projects, as well as from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its portfolio. Key partnerships with major retail brands and ongoing investments in property development and renovations further contribute to SPG's earnings, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in the retail real estate market.

Simon Property Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is strong with improving revenue and a major 2025 profitability uplift alongside rising operating and free cash flow. The main offset is elevated leverage (large debt load and high debt-to-equity), plus sustainability/visibility risk from the sharp year-to-year profit swing and limited 2025 cash-conversion ratio clarity.

Income Statement

Revenue has recovered steadily since 2020, with 2025 showing stronger growth (+3.4% vs ~0.1% in 2024). Profitability is very strong in the latest year, with a sharp step-up in net income (2025: $4.6B vs 2024: $2.4B) and very high reported profit margins. The main weakness is volatility versus earlier years (notably the 2020 downturn and the large year-to-year swing in 2025 profitability), which raises questions about sustainability of the latest margin level.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint: debt remains very large (~$29.9B in 2025) and debt-to-equity is elevated (2025: ~5.7x; prior years were even higher at ~7.7x–9.0x). Equity improved meaningfully in 2025 (to ~$5.2B from ~$2.9B in 2024), which helps reduce balance-sheet risk versus the prior year. Returns on equity are high, but with this level of leverage, the capital structure remains a notable risk factor if operating conditions soften or refinancing costs rise.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose to ~$4.1B in 2025 from ~$3.8B in 2024, and free cash flow increased sharply (2025: ~$4.1B vs 2024: ~$3.1B; +32.5% growth). A key weakness is data quality/consistency in 2025 cash-flow ratios (the provided coverage and free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratios show as 0.0), which prevents confirming how well earnings converted into cash in the latest period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.36B	5.96B	5.66B	5.29B	5.12B
Gross Profit	5.46B	4.92B	4.63B	4.29B	4.15B
EBITDA	7.86B	5.02B	4.89B	4.59B	4.85B
Net Income	4.61B	2.37B	2.28B	2.14B	2.25B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.61B	32.41B	34.28B	33.01B	33.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	823.15M	1.40B	2.17B	621.63M	533.94M
Total Debt	29.19B	24.78B	26.52B	25.46B	25.83B
Total Liabilities	33.90B	28.81B	30.60B	29.19B	29.38B
Stockholders Equity	5.21B	2.94B	3.02B	3.14B	3.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.57B	3.06B	3.14B	3.12B	3.11B
Operating Cash Flow	4.14B	3.81B	3.93B	3.77B	3.64B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.60B	1.41B	-1.36B	-626.56M	-552.76M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.11B	-4.99B	-2.02B	-3.05B	-3.56B

Simon Property Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 203.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 203.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 197.51, above the 50-day MA of 190.17, and above the 200-day MA of 174.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SPG.

Simon Property Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NNN	80 Outperform	$8.70B	21.90	8.89%	6.04%	4.53%	-3.46%
REG	77 Outperform	$14.55B	28.02	7.74%	4.15%	5.38%	3.13%
SPG	75 Outperform	$66.33B	36.10	114.55%	4.56%	4.18%	-5.05%
FRT	72 Outperform	$9.58B	23.25	12.76%	4.38%	6.05%	14.70%
KIM	71 Outperform	$15.88B	28.85	5.53%	5.02%	7.99%	55.05%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
O	65 Neutral	$63.00B	57.66	2.70%	5.64%	11.23%	1.82%

Simon Property Corporate Events

Simon Property Group Authorizes New $2 Billion Buyback

On February 5, 2026, Simon Property Group’s board authorized a new common stock repurchase program allowing the company to buy back up to $2.0 billion of its common shares through February 29, 2028, via open-market purchases or privately negotiated deals, at its discretion and subject to market conditions and legal requirements. The new authorization replaces a prior $2.0 billion program that had been set to expire on February 15, 2026, with about $1.7 billion still unused, signaling continued emphasis on capital return and balance-sheet flexibility but without committing the company to any specific repurchase volume or timing.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPG) stock is a Hold with a $189.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simon Property stock, see the SPG Stock Forecast page.

Simon Property Delivers Record 2025 Results, Hikes Dividend

On February 2, 2026, Simon Property Group reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighted by record Real Estate Funds From Operations (Real Estate FFO) of $4.8 billion and a sharp rise in net income attributable to common stockholders to $4.6 billion, or $14.17 per diluted share, from $2.4 billion in 2024. Fourth-quarter net income surged to $3.0 billion, largely driven by a $2.89 billion non-cash gain tied to the acquisition of the remaining interest in Taubman Realty Group, while full-year Real Estate FFO per share rose 4.0% and domestic and portfolio Net Operating Income increased 4.4% and 4.7%, respectively. Operational metrics across U.S. malls and Premium Outlets remained robust, with year-end 2025 occupancy essentially stable at 96.4%, base minimum rent per square foot up 4.7% to $60.97, and retailer sales per square foot climbing 8.1% to $799, underscoring continued tenant demand and pricing power. The company executed over 17 million square feet of leases, opened a new Premium Outlet in Indonesia, completed 23 major redevelopment projects, and acquired $2 billion of high-quality retail properties, reinforcing its scale and positioning in the retail real estate sector. Simon was active in capital markets, issuing $1.5 billion in senior notes and completing about $7.0 billion in secured loans, ending 2025 with approximately $9.1 billion of liquidity, and subsequently refinancing $800 million of maturing notes, steps that support balance sheet flexibility and funding capacity for ongoing investment. Reflecting confidence in its cash flow profile, the board raised the quarterly common dividend for the first quarter of 2026 by 4.8% year over year to $2.20 per share, signaling continued emphasis on returning capital to shareholders alongside disciplined, value-focused growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPG) stock is a Buy with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simon Property stock, see the SPG Stock Forecast page.