Simon Property (SPG)
NYSE:SPG
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Simon Property
(NYSE:SPG)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$193.00
▲(7.11% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/25/26
SPG scores highest on fundamentals and a supportive valuation (strong operating/cash-flow trends and a high dividend yield), but the overall score is held back by pronounced leverage risk and weak near-term technical momentum. Earnings call guidance was positive but tempered by higher interest expense and tariff-driven tenant risk.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Simon’s operating and free cash flow materially improved in 2025, delivering stronger internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on external funding for development and supports capital returns even with elevated leverage over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
High leverage and large debt stock
Simon’s substantial debt burden and elevated debt-to-equity leave the capital structure exposed to rate moves or slower operating cash conversion. High leverage limits optionality for aggressive growth or buybacks and raises refinancing risk if macro funding conditions tighten in the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Simon’s operating and free cash flow materially improved in 2025, delivering stronger internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on external funding for development and supports capital returns even with elevated leverage over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Simon Property (SPG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$58.55B
Dividend Yield4.56%
Average Volume (3M)1.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth4.18%
EPS Growth-5.05%
CountryUS
Employees3,600
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.35
Shares Outstanding324,945,280
10 Day Avg. Volume1,979,853
30 Day Avg. Volume1,660,497
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)11.59
Price to Sales (P/S)9.48
P/FCF Ratio16.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$205.40Price Target Upside13.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)6.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.28B
Simon Property Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Simon is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company (Simon Property Group, NYSE: SPG). Our properties across North America, Europe and Asia p...
How the Company Makes Money
SPG primarily makes money by owning and operating income-producing retail properties and monetizing them through leasing and property operations. Its main revenue stream is rental income paid by tenants under lease agreements (typically base rent)...
Simon Property Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights income from different business areas, revealing which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Highlights income from different business areas, revealing which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySimon Property Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial picture — record annual REFFO, strong leasing, rising rents, solid NOI growth, active M&A and redevelopment activity, robust liquidity, and sizable shareholder returns. Management acknowledged tangible near-term headwinds including tariff-driven retailer pressure, higher interest expense, an investment write-off, and some occupancy drag from recently acquired assets; many redevelopment benefits are back-end weighted. On balance, the company emphasized durable fundamentals, healthy demand, and a sizable development/redevelopment pipeline, with risks noted but viewed as manageable within guidance.Positive Updates
Record Annual REFFO and Strong Q4 REFFO Growth
Reported record real estate funds from operations (REFFO) of $4.8 billion for FY2025, or $12.73 per share; Q4 real estate FFO was $3.49 per share, up 4.2% versus prior year ($3.35).
Negative Updates
Tariff-Related Retailer Pressure and Credit Risk
Management highlighted tariffs as a meaningful headwind that is putting pressure on many retailers (particularly smaller and mid-sized chains), increasing the risk of bankruptcies and creating greater tenant credit uncertainty heading into 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual REFFO and Strong Q4 REFFO Growth
Reported record real estate funds from operations (REFFO) of $4.8 billion for FY2025, or $12.73 per share; Q4 real estate FFO was $3.49 per share, up 4.2% versus prior year ($3.35).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Simon guided 2026 real estate FFO of $13.00–$13.25 per share (midpoint $13.13), assuming at least 3% domestic property NOI growth and roughly $0.25–$0.30 higher net interest expense per share versus 2025; management also expects about $30 million of incremental NOI from projects completing in 2026, a development pipeline north of $4.0 billion with year‑end share of net development cost of ~$1.5 billion at a blended yield of 9% (≈45% mixed‑use), and continued operating strength (year‑end occupancy 96.4% for malls & premium outlets and 99.2% for mills, average base minimum rents +4.7% YoY, retail sales per sq. ft. $799, total sales volumes +4% in Q4 / +3% for the year, occupancy cost 12.7%); the company finished the year with >$9 billion of liquidity, net debt/EBITDA of 5.0x, returned roughly $3.5 billion to shareholders in 2025 (including >$3.2 billion of dividends and share repurchases) and announced a Q1 dividend of $2.20 per share (+$0.10, +4.8%).Simon Property Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.36B | 5.96B | 5.66B | 5.29B | 5.12B |
| Gross Profit | 5.46B | 4.92B | 4.63B | 4.29B | 4.15B |
| EBITDA | 7.86B | 5.02B | 4.89B | 4.59B | 4.85B |
| Net Income | 4.61B | 2.37B | 2.28B | 2.14B | 2.25B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 40.61B | 32.41B | 34.28B | 33.01B | 33.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 823.15M | 1.40B | 2.17B | 621.63M | 533.94M |
| Total Debt | 29.19B | 24.78B | 26.52B | 25.46B | 25.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 33.90B | 28.81B | 30.60B | 29.19B | 29.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.21B | 2.94B | 3.02B | 3.14B | 3.36B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.57B | 3.06B | 3.14B | 3.12B | 3.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.48B | 3.81B | 3.93B | 3.77B | 3.64B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.94B | 1.41B | -1.36B | -626.56M | -552.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.11B | -4.99B | -2.02B | -3.05B | -3.56B |
Simon Property Technical Analysis
Negative
180.19
Price Trends
190.44
Negative
185.44
Negative
176.20
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.34
Positive
35.45
Neutral
23.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 180.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 189.41, below the 50-day MA of 190.44, and above the 200-day MA of 176.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SPG.
Simon Property Risk Analysis
Simon Property disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simon Property reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Simon Property Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $7.97B | 19.50 | 8.88% | 6.04% | 4.53% | -3.46% | |
75 Outperform | $13.59B | 24.78 | 9.30% | 4.15% | 5.38% | 3.13% | |
72 Outperform | $8.93B | 21.05 | 12.74% | 4.38% | 6.05% | 14.70% | |
71 Outperform | $14.98B | 23.39 | 5.56% | 5.02% | 7.99% | 55.05% | |
67 Neutral | $58.55B | 13.08 | 146.33% | 4.56% | 4.18% | -5.05% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | $56.59B | 48.18 | 2.70% | 5.64% | 11.23% | 1.82% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
SPG
Simon Property
180.19
21.99
13.90%
KIM
Kimco Realty
22.22
1.96
9.66%
NNN
NNN REIT
41.94
1.68
4.18%
O
Realty Income
60.69
5.80
10.56%
REG
Regency Centers
74.30
3.47
4.89%
FRT
Federal Realty
102.87
9.40
10.05%
Simon Property Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Simon Property Announces Leadership Transition After David Simon’s Passing
Negative
Mar 24, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Simon Property Group announced that David Simon, its long-serving chairman, chief executive and president, died on March 22, 2026 at age 64 after a battle with cancer. The board, employees and wider Simon community paid tribute ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Simon Property Extends and Optimizes Major Credit Facilities
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Simon Property Group, L.P. amended and extended its $5.0 billion senior unsecured multi-currency revolving credit facility, maintaining initial borrowing capacity with the option to increase it to $6.0 billion and pushing the ini...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Simon Property Group Authorizes New $2 Billion Buyback
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Simon Property Group’s board authorized a new common stock repurchase program allowing the company to buy back up to $2.0 billion of its common shares through February 29, 2028, via open-market purchases or privately neg...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Simon Property Delivers Record 2025 Results, Hikes Dividend
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Simon Property Group reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighted by record Real Estate Funds From Operations (Real Estate FFO) of $4.8 billion and a sharp rise in net income attributable to common st...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.