NNN REIT (NNN)
NYSE:NNN
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NNN REIT
(NYSE:NNN)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(16.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
NNN’s score is led by strong financial performance (high margins and rising operating/free cash flow) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The latest earnings call reinforces a stable-to-improving outlook via modest AFFO growth guidance, disciplined dividend policy, and leverage-neutral acquisition plans. Valuation is balanced: an attractive ~5.4% yield is partially offset by a ~21x P/E, while a balance-sheet data anomaly in 2025 and tenant/bad-debt headwinds temper the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
NNN's operating cash flow has meaningfully increased over the multi-year period to ~ $667M in 2025, and free cash flow tracks OCF closely. This durable cash conversion underpins dividend coverage, funds acquisitions and reduces reliance on external financing, supporting long-term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Tenant-related vacancies
Concentrated disruptions in furniture and restaurant tenants create multi-year remediation and re-leasing work. Vacancies in single-tenant retail can take extended periods to stabilize, pressuring cash flow, increasing leasing/tenant improvement costs and potentially lowering long-term portfolio yields.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
NNN's operating cash flow has meaningfully increased over the multi-year period to ~ $667M in 2025, and free cash flow tracks OCF closely. This durable cash conversion underpins dividend coverage, funds acquisitions and reduces reliance on external financing, supporting long-term financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
NNN REIT (NNN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.37B
Dividend Yield6.04%
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.5
Beta (1Y)0.24
Revenue Growth4.53%
EPS Growth-3.46%
CountryUS
Employees83
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding190,255,390
10 Day Avg. Volume1,546,105
30 Day Avg. Volume1,434,068
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.58
Price to Book (P/B)1.69
Price to Sales (P/S)8.03
P/FCF Ratio11.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.39Price Target Upside3.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$967.41M
NNN REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Retail Properties invests primarily in high-quality retail properties subject generally to long-term, net leases. As of September 30, 2020, the company owned 3,114 properties in 48 states with a gross leasable area of approximately 32.4 m...
How the Company Makes Money
NNN REIT generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of properties. The company enters into long-term lease agreements with tenants, which typically provide for fixed rent increases over time, creating a predictable revenu...
NNN REIT Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Occupancy Rate
Share of total rentable space that is currently leased. High occupancy underpins steady income and dividend coverage; falling occupancy often precedes revenue drop, higher tenant improvement or leasing costs, and increased vacancy risk.
Share of total rentable space that is currently leased. High occupancy underpins steady income and dividend coverage; falling occupancy often precedes revenue drop, higher tenant improvement or leasing costs, and increased vacancy risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNNN REIT Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a largely positive operational and financial picture: AFFO/FFO growth, record acquisition activity, strong occupancy and rent growth, and a conservative, liquid balance sheet. Management also acknowledged near-term challenges from legacy tenant disruptions (furniture and restaurants), elevated 2025 lease termination fees, a higher bad-debt starting assumption (75 bps), and continued reliance on dispositions to self-fund growth. Overall, the positives (robust acquisitions, portfolio metrics, balance sheet strength and dividend growth) outweigh the manageable headwinds and conservative assumptions.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year AFFO/FFO Growth
Q4 core FFO and AFFO were $0.87 per share, each up 6.1% year-over-year. Full-year core FFO was $3.41 and AFFO was $3.44, each up 2.7% versus 2024. Q4 AFFO came in slightly ahead of expectations driven by lower net real estate expenses, lower G&A and higher interest income.
Negative Updates
Tenant-Related Vacancies from Furniture and Restaurant Operators
Operational headwinds in 2024–2025 from a furniture operator and restaurant tenant resulted in elevated vacancies (peak referenced as ~90 vacant assets). At the time of the call, restaurant-related portfolio remediation remained ongoing: 32 restaurant properties remained (15 for sale, 4 in advanced leasing discussions, 13 actively marketed). Some furniture asset closings may slip into Q2 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Full-Year AFFO/FFO Growth
Q4 core FFO and AFFO were $0.87 per share, each up 6.1% year-over-year. Full-year core FFO was $3.41 and AFFO was $3.44, each up 2.7% versus 2024. Q4 AFFO came in slightly ahead of expectations driven by lower net real estate expenses, lower G&A and higher interest income.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NNN set 2026 guidance for AFFO per share of $3.52–$3.58 and core FFO of $3.47–$3.53 (the AFFO midpoint implies ~3.2% YoY growth vs. 2.7% in 2025 when AFFO was $3.44), and the plan embeds $600M of acquisitions at the midpoint funded primarily by roughly $210M of retained free cash flow, about $130M of dispositions and leverage‑neutral incremental debt; the outlook includes a prudent 75 basis‑point bad‑debt assumption. Management reiterated a $0.60 quarterly dividend (a 3.4% YoY increase, equal to a 5.5% annualized yield and a 69% AFFO payout ratio), said cap rates have largely stabilized with slight compression anticipated later in the year, and noted recent buy activity at a 7.4% initial cash cap rate with a weighted average lease term >18 years.NNN REIT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 926.21M | 869.27M | 828.11M | 773.05M | 726.41M |
| Gross Profit | 351.95M | 836.95M | 799.73M | 746.77M | 698.02M |
| EBITDA | 860.48M | 830.53M | 794.86M | 706.52M | 633.20M |
| Net Income | 389.78M | 396.83M | 392.34M | 334.63M | 290.11M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.38B | 8.87B | 8.66B | 8.15B | 7.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.05M | 8.73M | 1.19M | 2.50M | 171.32M |
| Total Debt | 4.82B | 4.37B | 4.36B | 3.92B | 3.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.97B | 4.51B | 4.50B | 4.02B | 3.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.41B | 4.36B | 4.16B | 4.12B | 3.90B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 667.13M | 635.50M | 612.41M | 578.36M | 568.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 667.13M | 635.50M | 612.41M | 578.36M | 568.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -748.06M | -424.34M | -680.66M | -777.63M | -432.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 77.69M | -207.26M | 66.63M | 34.73M | -232.16M |
NNN REIT Technical Analysis
Positive
43.77
Price Trends
43.76
Positive
41.98
Positive
41.45
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
57.76
Neutral
89.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NNN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.07, above the 50-day MA of 43.76, and above the 200-day MA of 41.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NNN.
NNN REIT Risk Analysis
NNN REIT disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NNN REIT reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NNN REIT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $8.37B | 19.50 | 8.88% | 6.04% | 4.53% | -3.46% | |
79 Outperform | $9.31B | 39.03 | 3.49% | 4.28% | 14.67% | -5.17% | |
73 Outperform | $9.09B | 20.85 | 13.01% | 4.41% | 6.07% | -0.28% | |
72 Outperform | $9.46B | 21.05 | 12.74% | 4.38% | 6.05% | 14.70% | |
71 Outperform | $5.30B | 23.40 | 4.86% | 3.52% | 10.58% | 37.97% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $5.25B | 17.20 | 9.31% | 4.55% | 3.67% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
NNN
NNN REIT
44.08
5.04
12.91%
ADC
Agree Realty
77.80
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4.09%
KRG
Kite Realty Group
25.65
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FRT
Federal Realty
110.21
22.18
25.19%
BRX
Brixmor Property
30.05
6.06
25.24%
PECO
Phillips Edison & Company
38.49
4.10
11.94%
NNN REIT Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NNN REIT Appoints Edward Fritsch as New Board Chair
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 18, 2026, NNN REIT, Inc.’s long-serving board chair, Steven D. Cosler, retired from the Board after nearly a decade of service, including his tenure as chair since May 2021 during a period of significant market disruption. Chief ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NNN REIT Secures $300M Term Loan Agreement
Positive
Dec 17, 2025
On December 17, 2025, NNN REIT, Inc. entered into a $300 million Term Loan Agreement with the potential to expand to $500 million. The loan, set to mature on February 15, 2029, includes favorable interest terms tied to the company’s credit r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.