NNN REIT (NNN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.45B
• Dividend Yield: 6.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.20
• Revenue Growth: 4.53%
• EPS Growth: -3.46%
• Country: US
• Employees: 83
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 189,939,440
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,521,011
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,445,453
• PEG Ratio: -4.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.03
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 14.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.58
• 1Y Price Target: $45.35
• Price Target Upside: 0.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $967.80M

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $51.00 ▲(13.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

NNN’s score is led by strong financial performance (high margins and rising operating/free cash flow) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The latest earnings call reinforces a stable-to-improving outlook via modest AFFO growth guidance, disciplined dividend policy, and leverage-neutral acquisition plans. Valuation is balanced: an attractive ~5.4% yield is partially offset by a ~21x P/E, while a balance-sheet data anomaly in 2025 and tenant/bad-debt headwinds temper the overall rating.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

NNN's operating cash flow has meaningfully increased over the multi-year period to ~ $667M in 2025, and free cash flow tracks OCF closely. This durable cash conversion underpins dividend coverage, funds acquisitions and reduces reliance on external financing, supporting long-term financial flexibility.

High-quality, long-leased portfolio

A large, diversified single-tenant net-lease portfolio with very high occupancy and a WALE >18 years provides predictable, contractually indexed cash flows. Long leases and strong renewal/recapture metrics support revenue stability and reduce volatility in rental income across economic cycles.

Liquidity and long debt duration

A solid liquidity cushion, long weighted debt maturity and an investment-grade rating materially lower near-term refinancing risk. This structural strength enables self-funded acquisition plans and disciplined capital allocation while preserving capacity to absorb tenant or macro shocks.

Negative Factors

Tenant-related vacancies

Concentrated disruptions in furniture and restaurant tenants create multi-year remediation and re-leasing work. Vacancies in single-tenant retail can take extended periods to stabilize, pressuring cash flow, increasing leasing/tenant improvement costs and potentially lowering long-term portfolio yields.

Reliance on dispositions to fund growth

Embedding material disposition assumptions to self-fund acquisitions introduces execution and timing risk. If market demand or pricing for non-core assets softens, the company may face increased leverage, delayed growth, or the need to access costlier financing, affecting long-term strategy execution.

2025 balance-sheet anomaly reduces visibility

A reported 2025 debt=0 anomaly undermines confidence in the most recent leverage snapshot and complicates assessment of covenant, refinancing and capital allocation plans. Persistent reporting inconsistencies or unclear leverage metrics increase investor uncertainty around financial risk management.

NNN REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Retail Properties invests primarily in high-quality retail properties subject generally to long-term, net leases. As of September 30, 2020, the company owned 3,114 properties in 48 states with a gross leasable area of approximately 32.4 million square feet and with a weighted average remaining lease term of 10.7 years.

How the Company Makes Money

NNN REIT generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of properties. The company enters into long-term lease agreements with tenants, which typically provide for fixed rent increases over time, creating a predictable revenue stream. As a net lease REIT, NNN's tenants are responsible for most property-related expenses, which minimizes the operating costs for the company and enhances its profit margins. Additionally, the company may benefit from the appreciation of property values over time, allowing for potential gains upon property sales. NNN REIT’s strategic focus on high-quality tenants in essential retail sectors also helps to reduce vacancy rates and maintain stable cash flows. The company may also engage in capital recycling strategies, which involve selling mature properties and reinvesting the proceeds into new acquisitions, further contributing to its revenue generation.

NNN REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamentals driven by steady revenue growth (2020: $661M to 2025: $926M), consistently high profitability, and improving operating/free cash flow (OCF up to ~$667M in 2025). Offsetting this, net income has been slightly uneven in the most recent years and the 2025 balance sheet shows an apparent debt=0 anomaly that reduces confidence in the latest leverage snapshot.

Income Statement

Revenue shows a steady multi-year uptrend (2020: $661M to 2025: $926M), supporting consistent scale growth. Profitability is a clear strength, with very high gross and EBITDA margins and healthy net margins (~35%–47% historically; ~42% in 2025). The main watch-out is that net income is not consistently expanding despite higher revenue (2024–2025 slightly down vs. 2023), suggesting incremental costs, financing, or other factors are limiting bottom-line growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears moderate for a retail REIT in most years, with debt-to-equity around ~0.75–1.05 from 2020–2024, and equity growing over time alongside assets. Returns on equity are steady in the high single-digits (~5%–9%), indicating stable profitability relative to the capital base. A key concern is 2025 showing total debt at $0 and debt-to-equity at 0.0, which is a sharp break from prior years and likely reflects a data/reporting inconsistency—this reduces confidence in the latest-period balance sheet picture.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and improving, with operating cash flow rising from ~$450M (2020) to ~$667M (2025). Free cash flow closely tracks operating cash flow and is consistently about equal to net income, signaling solid cash conversion and earnings quality. Growth is generally positive with only a notable dip in 2020; however, the operating cash flow coverage metric is unusually volatile across years (and shows 0.0 in 2025), which introduces some uncertainty around the consistency of the supporting detail.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	926.21M	869.27M	828.11M	773.05M	726.41M
Gross Profit	351.95M	836.95M	799.73M	746.77M	698.02M
EBITDA	860.48M	830.53M	794.86M	706.52M	633.20M
Net Income	389.78M	396.83M	392.34M	334.63M	290.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.38B	8.87B	8.66B	8.15B	7.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.05M	8.73M	1.19M	2.50M	171.32M
Total Debt	4.82B	4.37B	4.36B	3.92B	3.75B
Total Liabilities	4.97B	4.51B	4.50B	4.02B	3.85B
Stockholders Equity	4.41B	4.36B	4.16B	4.12B	3.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	667.13M	635.50M	612.41M	578.36M	568.42M
Operating Cash Flow	667.13M	635.50M	612.41M	578.36M	568.42M
Investing Cash Flow	-748.06M	-424.34M	-680.66M	-777.63M	-432.18M
Financing Cash Flow	77.69M	-207.26M	66.63M	34.73M	-232.16M

NNN REIT Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 44.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NNN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.33, above the 50-day MA of 41.48, and above the 200-day MA of 40.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NNN.

NNN REIT Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NNN	80 Outperform	$8.45B	21.50	8.89%	6.04%	4.53%	-3.46%
ADC	79 Outperform	$9.51B	44.86	3.47%	4.28%	14.67%	-5.17%
BRX	73 Outperform	$9.14B	23.80	12.86%	4.41%	6.07%	-0.28%
FRT	72 Outperform	$9.35B	23.03	12.76%	4.38%	6.05%	14.70%
PECO	71 Outperform	$5.39B	43.97	4.83%	3.52%	10.58%	37.97%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
KRG	65 Neutral	$5.38B	19.02	9.35%	4.55%	3.67%	―

NNN REIT Corporate Events

NNN REIT Appoints Edward Fritsch as New Board Chair

On February 18, 2026, NNN REIT, Inc.’s long-serving board chair, Steven D. Cosler, retired from the Board after nearly a decade of service, including his tenure as chair since May 2021 during a period of significant market disruption. Chief executive officer Steve Horn and Mr. Cosler both emphasized his leadership and guidance, framing the transition as a continuation of the company’s strategic focus on long-term shareholder value.

Effective upon Cosler’s retirement, independent director Edward J. Fritsch was appointed chair, bringing extensive sector experience from his prior role as president and chief executive officer of Highwoods Properties, Inc. and his leadership positions at Nareit, and the Board highlighted that this change is expected to provide strong, cohesive governance as NNN continues executing its long-term strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (NNN) stock is a Buy with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NNN REIT stock, see the NNN Stock Forecast page.

NNN REIT Secures $300M Term Loan Agreement

On December 17, 2025, NNN REIT, Inc. entered into a $300 million Term Loan Agreement with the potential to expand to $500 million. The loan, set to mature on February 15, 2029, includes favorable interest terms tied to the company’s credit ratings and restrictive covenants aligning with its financial strategy. Additionally, amendments were made to the company’s Revolving Credit Agreement to remove a 10-basis point SOFR credit spread adjustment, signifying strategic recalibrations in its financing arrangements. These updates provide NNN REIT with enhanced flexibility and funding capacity for general corporate purposes.

The most recent analyst rating on (NNN) stock is a Hold with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NNN REIT stock, see the NNN Stock Forecast page.