National Retail Properties (NNN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.91B
• Dividend Yield: 5.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: 5.40%
• EPS Growth: -1.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 83
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 187,951,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,116,881
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,102,438
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.80
• 1Y Price Target: $44.25
• Price Target Upside: 5.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $49.00 ▲(16.39%Upside)

National Retail Properties is performing strongly in terms of financial health, technical indicators, and strategic initiatives. The company's solid financial performance and attractive dividend yield are complemented by positive momentum in technical analysis. While challenges remain in tenant management and cap rate pressures, the company's strategic financial actions and robust earnings provide confidence in its growth trajectory.

Positive Factors

Acquisitions

NNN has completed the acquisition of 82 properties with a weighted average lease term of 18.4 years.

AFFO Guidance

The company's quarterly AFFO results are in-line with expectations, and the full-year guidance is above consensus.

Liquidity

The company is in a good liquidity position, with approximately $200 million of cash and $1.2 billion available on their revolving credit facility.

Negative Factors

Occupancy Levels

The company reported occupancy levels at 97.7%, which is down 170 basis points year-over-year.

Property Expenses

The company anticipates higher property expenses for vacant properties due to increased rent loss.

Tenant Issues

Recent tenant credit issues have impacted shares.

National Retail Properties Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Retail Properties invests primarily in high-quality retail properties subject generally to long-term, net leases. As of September 30, 2020, the company owned 3,114 properties in 48 states with a gross leasable area of approximately 32.4 million square feet and with a weighted average remaining lease term of 10.7 years.

How the Company Makes Money

National Retail Properties generates revenue primarily through the rental income received from its portfolio of retail properties. The company's key revenue stream is the lease payments made by tenants under the triple-net lease agreements, which typically have long durations and include periodic rent escalations. These leases enable NNN to maintain a steady cash flow while minimizing operational costs, as tenants cover most property-related expenses. Additionally, NNN may engage in strategic property acquisitions and dispositions to optimize its portfolio and enhance overall returns. The company benefits from its relationships with a diverse group of national and regional retail tenants, which helps mitigate the risk of income disruption and contributes to its financial stability.

National Retail Properties Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Retail Properties shows solid financial health with strong revenue and profit growth, efficient operational performance, and effective cash flow management. While leverage is moderate, the company maintains a balanced capital structure, supporting continued stability and growth in the retail REIT sector.

Income Statement

National Retail Properties demonstrates strong revenue growth with a solid Gross Profit Margin of 96.1% and a Net Profit Margin of 45.1% in TTM. The company has consistently improved its revenue from $660.7M in 2020 to $884.7M in TTM, reflecting a positive growth trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 66% and 95% respectively, indicating healthy operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.03, suggesting manageable leverage levels. Return on Equity (ROE) is commendable at 9.2% in TTM, showcasing effective utilization of equity. The Equity Ratio stands at 48.3%, indicating a balanced capital structure, though slightly leaning towards liabilities.

Cash Flow

National Retail Properties exhibits strong cash flow performance with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.63 and Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.63 in TTM, indicating robust cash generation relative to net earnings. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate has been positive, showcasing effective cash management.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	869.27M	828.11M	773.05M	726.41M	660.68M
Gross Profit	836.95M	799.73M	746.77M	698.02M	632.32M
EBITDA	830.53M	793.73M	706.37M	654.32M	571.11M
Net Income	396.83M	392.34M	186.71M	152.24M	99.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.87B	8.66B	8.15B	7.75B	7.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.73M	1.19M	2.50M	171.32M	267.24M
Total Debt	4.37B	4.36B	3.92B	3.75B	3.22B
Total Liabilities	4.51B	4.50B	4.02B	3.85B	3.32B
Stockholders Equity	4.36B	4.16B	4.12B	3.90B	4.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	635.50M	612.41M	578.36M	568.42M	450.19M
Operating Cash Flow	635.50M	612.41M	578.36M	568.42M	450.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-424.34M	-680.66M	-777.63M	-432.18M	-142.82M
Financing Cash Flow	-207.26M	66.63M	34.73M	-232.16M	-41.25M

National Retail Properties Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 42.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NNN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 42.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.01, below the 50-day MA of 42.50, and above the 200-day MA of 41.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NNN.

National Retail Properties Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADC	78 Outperform	$8.09B	41.45	3.54%	4.17%	13.75%	5.67%
NNN	76 Outperform	$7.91B	19.57	9.35%	5.56%	5.40%	-1.33%
BRX	74 Outperform	$7.82B	23.37	11.52%	4.31%	5.98%	12.11%
FRT	72 Outperform	$8.10B	26.76	9.85%	4.70%	6.07%	24.23%
PECO	70 Neutral	$4.86B	66.64	3.01%	3.56%	10.31%	14.39%
KRG	68 Neutral	$5.07B	374.68	0.81%	4.66%	4.37%	-75.82%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$6.86B	17.00	-2.14%	7.13%	4.56%	-27.45%

National Retail Properties Corporate Events

National Retail Properties Completes $500M Notes Sale

NNN REIT, Inc. announced the completion of a significant financial transaction involving the sale of $500 million in senior unsecured notes, which closed on July 1, 2025. The notes, bearing an interest rate of 4.600% and maturing in 2031, are intended to help the company repay existing debt, fund property acquisitions, and support general corporate purposes, potentially impacting its financial flexibility and growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (NNN) stock is a Buy with a $49.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Retail Properties stock, see the NNN Stock Forecast page.