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Agree Realty (ADC)
NYSE:ADC
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Agree Realty (ADC) AI Stock Analysis

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ADC

Agree Realty

(NYSE:ADC)

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Outperform 79 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$86.00
▲(14.45% Upside)
Agree Realty's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its high score. While technical indicators suggest caution due to potential overbought conditions, the company's robust investment activity and solid dividend yield support its attractiveness. The high P/E ratio indicates some valuation concerns, but the overall outlook remains positive.
Positive Factors
Strong Investment Activity
Agree Realty's significant investment activity, with a 65% increase in guidance, indicates strategic growth and expansion, enhancing long-term revenue potential.
High Occupancy and Credit Rating
High occupancy rates and an A- credit rating reflect operational efficiency and financial stability, supporting sustainable cash flows and reduced financing costs.
Dividend Growth
The increase in dividends demonstrates Agree Realty's commitment to returning value to shareholders, supported by strong cash flow and financial health.
Negative Factors
Net Profit Margin Decline
A decline in net profit margins suggests rising costs or operational inefficiencies, which could pressure future profitability if not addressed.
Credit Loss Assumptions
Assumptions of credit loss indicate potential risks in tenant defaults, which could impact revenue stability and require careful management.
Minimal Dilution Impact
Even minimal dilution can affect earnings per share, potentially impacting investor perception and stock valuation over time.

Agree Realty (ADC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Agree Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAgree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading retail tenants. As of September 30, 2020, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 1,027 properties, located in 45 states and containing approximately 21.0 million square feet of gross leasable area. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ADC.
How the Company Makes MoneyAgree Realty generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of retail properties leased to tenants under long-term net lease agreements. These agreements typically require tenants to cover property expenses such as taxes, insurance, and maintenance, resulting in a relatively stable cash flow for the company. In addition to rental income, Agree Realty may also benefit from property appreciation and potential lease escalations over time, enhancing its overall revenue. The company strategically focuses on high-quality tenants with strong credit ratings, which minimizes default risk and supports reliable income streams. Furthermore, Agree Realty's growth is bolstered by its active acquisition strategy, allowing it to expand its portfolio and increase rental revenues, while partnerships with reputable retailers further solidify its position in the market.

Agree Realty Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights Agree Realty Corporation's strong investment volume, robust financial performance, and significant achievements such as receiving an A- credit rating. While there are some concerns regarding credit loss assumptions and minimal dilution impacts, the positive aspects of the call strongly outweigh the negative, indicating a solid position and positive outlook for the company.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Investment Volume
Agree Realty Corporation achieved its largest quarterly investment volume since COVID, deploying over $450 million across all platforms. The full-year 2025 investment guidance has been increased to a range of $1.5 to $1.65 billion, representing an increase of over 65% above last year's investment volume.
Strong Financial Performance
Core FFO per share for the third quarter was $1.09, an 8.4% increase from the same period last year. AFFO per share increased 7.2% year-over-year to $1.11, which is $0.02 above consensus.
A- Credit Rating Achievement
The company received an A- issuer rating from Fitch Ratings, making it one of only 13 publicly listed U.S. REITs with an A- credit rating or better, which reduced the interest rate on its 2029 term loan by five basis points.
High Occupancy and Investment-Grade Exposure
Occupancy for the quarter remained very strong at 99.7%, and investment-grade exposure remained sector-leading at 67%.
Negative Updates
Minimal Treasury Stock Method Dilution
The company anticipates roughly $0.01 of dilution related to the treasury stock method for the full year 2025, given the impact recognized in the first half of the year.
Credit Loss Assumptions
Guidance includes an assumption of approximately 25 basis points of credit loss for the year, reflecting potential risks in tenant defaults or occupancy loss.
Company Guidance
During Agree Realty Corporation's third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported robust investment activity and provided updated guidance for the year. They increased their full-year 2025 investment guidance to $1.5 to $1.65 billion, representing over a 65% increase from the previous year. The company also raised its AFFO per share guidance to $4.31 to $4.33, indicating a 4.4% year-over-year growth. In Q3, Agree Realty invested over $450 million in 110 retail net lease properties with a cap rate of 7.2% and a lease term averaging 10.7 years. Notably, 70% of the annualized base rent acquired was from investment-grade retailers. Additionally, they enhanced their financial standing with an A- issuer rating from Fitch Ratings and maintained a strong liquidity position of $1.9 billion. Despite market fluctuations, cap rates were stable, and the company maintained a high occupancy rate of 99.7% across its 2,600-property portfolio.

Agree Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Agree Realty showcases a robust financial profile with consistent revenue and cash flow growth, strong profit margins, and a stable balance sheet. However, slight declines in net profit margins and ROE warrant monitoring.
Income Statement
Agree Realty has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the past years, with a notable increase from $248.6M in 2020 to $659.8M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. Gross profit margins are robust, consistently above 80%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased from 2024 to TTM 2025, reflecting increased expenses or operational costs.
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a solid financial position with a high equity ratio of 62.2% in TTM 2025, indicating financial stability and a lower risk of financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio remains moderate at 0.51, suggesting manageable leverage levels. Return on equity has slightly decreased, which could indicate potential challenges in generating profits from equity.
Cash Flow
Agree Realty's cash flow statements reveal a healthy operating cash flow, growing consistently over the years. The free cash flow has also shown significant growth, indicating strong cash-generating capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests effective cash conversion from net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue659.75M617.10M537.50M429.81M339.32M248.57M
Gross Profit578.84M542.25M470.78M377.53M298.26M216.82M
EBITDA567.37M543.26M463.95M386.24M295.67M215.80M
Net Income183.95M189.20M169.96M152.44M122.27M91.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.08B8.49B7.77B6.71B5.23B3.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments8.91M6.40M10.91M27.76M43.25M6.14M
Total Debt3.30B2.83B2.41B1.94B1.69B1.22B
Total Liabilities3.43B2.98B2.57B2.08B1.81B1.36B
Stockholders Equity5.65B5.51B5.20B4.63B3.42B2.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow478.15M431.97M391.60M362.12M246.31M142.96M
Operating Cash Flow478.15M431.97M391.60M362.12M246.31M142.96M
Investing Cash Flow-1.32B-885.41M-1.27B-1.62B-1.39B-1.30B
Financing Cash Flow827.48M445.31M869.01M1.24B1.18B1.12B

Agree Realty Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price75.14
Price Trends
50DMA
72.11
Positive
100DMA
72.31
Positive
200DMA
72.44
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.96
Negative
RSI
67.00
Neutral
STOCH
83.76
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 75.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.23, above the 50-day MA of 72.11, and above the 200-day MA of 72.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADC.

Agree Realty Risk Analysis

Agree Realty disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agree Realty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Agree Realty Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$8.30B43.873.47%4.07%14.67%-5.17%
75
Outperform
$8.06B20.309.18%5.54%4.82%-5.18%
74
Outperform
$8.36B24.9811.52%4.12%5.98%12.11%
71
Outperform
$8.65B25.2511.04%4.39%6.00%15.77%
70
Outperform
$4.76B65.253.01%3.59%10.31%14.39%
68
Neutral
$4.96B28.745.53%4.67%4.03%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ADC
Agree Realty
75.14
1.58
2.15%
NNN
NNN REIT
42.25
-3.47
-7.59%
KRG
Kite Realty Group
23.13
-1.72
-6.92%
FRT
Federal Realty
101.00
-8.50
-7.76%
BRX
Brixmor Property
27.93
1.18
4.41%
PECO
Phillips Edison & Company
34.74
-1.00
-2.80%

Agree Realty Corporate Events

Agree Realty Corporation Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Oct 23, 2025

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust specializing in acquiring and developing properties net leased to leading omni-channel retail tenants across the United States. The company recently reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a significant increase in investment guidance and AFFO per share guidance for the year. During the third quarter of 2025, Agree Realty Corporation invested approximately $451 million in 110 retail net lease properties and commenced five development projects with a total committed capital of $51 million. The company reported a 7.9% increase in net income per share to $0.45 and an 8.4% increase in Core FFO per share to $1.09. Additionally, the company declared a monthly dividend of $0.256 per common share, marking a 2.4% year-over-year increase. Agree Realty Corporation’s balance sheet remains robust, with over $1.9 billion in liquidity and an A- issuer rating from Fitch Ratings. Looking ahead, the company has raised its full-year 2025 investment guidance to a range of $1.50 billion to $1.65 billion and increased its AFFO per share guidance to $4.31 to $4.33, reflecting confidence in its growth strategy and financial stability.

Agree Realty’s Earnings Call Highlights Robust Growth and Optimism
Oct 23, 2025

Agree Realty Corporation’s recent earnings call conveyed a strong and positive sentiment, underscoring the company’s robust investment volume, impressive financial performance, and significant achievements such as attaining an A- credit rating. While there were minor concerns regarding credit loss assumptions and minimal dilution impacts, the overall outlook remains optimistic, highlighting the company’s solid position in the market.

Financial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Agree Realty Reports Impact of Equity Offerings
Neutral
Oct 2, 2025

On October 2, 2025, Agree Realty Corporation reported its weighted-average number of common shares outstanding for the three and nine months ending September 30, 2025. The announcement detailed the impact of forward equity offerings on the company’s diluted earnings per share, highlighting a significant increase in weighted-average incremental shares due to these offerings.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADC) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agree Realty stock, see the ADC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 22, 2025