Agree Realty (ADC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.51B
• Dividend Yield: 4.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 44.9
• Beta (1Y): -0.06
• Revenue Growth: 14.67%
• EPS Growth: -5.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 120,028,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,206,902
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,195,010
• PEG Ratio: -34.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 18.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.08
• 1Y Price Target: $81.65
• Price Target Upside: 2.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $800.89M

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $91.00 ▲(14.06% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

ADC scores well on fundamentals, led by strong and growing cash generation and generally solid balance-sheet positioning for a REIT, reinforced by constructive 2026 AFFO growth and investment guidance. Technicals are supportive but look somewhat extended. The main restraint on the score is valuation, with a high P/E that leaves less room for disappointment despite an attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Agree's operating cash flow growth to $504M with free cash flow tracking OCF demonstrates durable cash conversion. Strong FCF supports dividend coverage, funds the $1.4–$1.6B investment program, reduces reliance on external capital and underpins AFFO stability across cycles.

Portfolio Quality & Leasing

Near-100% occupancy, a high share of investment-grade tenants and long average lease terms (~11.5 years) generate predictable, sticky rental cash flows. This tenant and lease profile lowers vacancy risk and leasing costs, supporting durable revenue and margin stability over multiple years.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Robust liquidity (> $2.0B), hedged capital and no near-term maturities through 2028, plus an A‑minus rating, materially reduce refinancing and rate risk. This funding strength allows continued acquisitions, hedging of issuance, and supports the dividend and development pipeline over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Rising Absolute Debt & Leverage Sensitivity

Absolute debt growth raises refinancing exposure and interest-rate sensitivity; pro forma net debt/recurring EBITDA excluding unsettled forward equity is ~4.9x, near the top of target ranges. Delays in forward equity settlement could leave leverage elevated and constrain capital flexibility.

Construction Cost Pressure

Sustained higher construction and labor costs materially compress development returns. Elevated build economics require higher yields or stricter underwriting; they can slow development starts, reduce ROIC on redevelopments, and heighten sensitivity of pipeline economics to cost inflation.

Limited Disposition Activity

Modest disposition volumes limit capital recycling and portfolio optimization. With aggressive acquisition targets, constrained sales activity can force greater reliance on forward equity or higher leverage, reducing flexibility to shed underperforming assets and potentially diluting long-term returns.

Agree Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading retail tenants. As of September 30, 2020, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 1,027 properties, located in 45 states and containing approximately 21.0 million square feet of gross leasable area. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ADC.

How the Company Makes Money

Agree Realty generates revenue primarily through rental income derived from its extensive portfolio of retail properties. The company's revenue model is built on long-term leases with creditworthy tenants, ensuring consistent cash flow. Key revenue streams include base rent, percentage rent from sales exceeding a certain threshold, and tenant reimbursements for property expenses. Additionally, ADC engages in property development and redevelopment projects, which can enhance rental income and increase property value. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with well-established retailers, further solidifying its revenue base and providing opportunities for expansion.

Agree Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and steadily scaling cash generation (operating cash flow up to $504M in 2025) supports the business model, alongside consistent multi-year revenue and net income growth. Offsets include slowing growth in the most recent year, a modest multi-year net margin step-down, and rising absolute debt that increases rate/refinancing sensitivity.

Income Statement

Agree Realty shows a strong multi-year growth profile, with revenue rising consistently from $249M (2020) to $718M (2025), though the growth rate has moderated meaningfully in the latest year (about 4% in 2025 vs. mid-to-high teens or better in prior years). Profitability appears solid and stable for the business model, with net income increasing over time ($91M in 2020 to $197M in 2025) and healthy operating profitability in the years where margins are provided. Key watch-out: net margin has drifted down from the mid-to-high 30% range (2020–2022) to low 30% (2023–2024), suggesting incremental pressure on profitability even as the company scales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks generally sound with equity building steadily (from $2.5B in 2020 to $6.3B in 2025) alongside asset growth (from $3.9B to $9.8B). Leverage is moderate for a REIT, with debt-to-equity around ~0.43–0.55 historically (about 0.51 in 2024), but absolute debt has climbed materially (from $1.3B in 2020 to $2.95B in 2025), which increases sensitivity to refinancing and rate conditions. Returns on equity are steady but modest (low-to-mid 3% range in 2021–2024), indicating consistent profitability but not exceptional capital efficiency.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow has increased from $143M (2020) to $504M (2025), and free cash flow has tracked operating cash flow each year (indicating strong conversion on the figures provided). Free cash flow growth is positive across all periods shown, including ~4% in 2025 after stronger growth in earlier years. Cash flow coverage looks supportive in the years provided, with operating cash flow running roughly ~3x net income (2022–2024), suggesting solid cash backing for reported earnings; the main limitation is the decelerating growth trend in the most recent year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	718.40M	617.10M	537.50M	429.81M	339.32M
Gross Profit	630.25M	542.25M	470.78M	377.53M	298.26M
EBITDA	617.06M	543.26M	463.95M	386.24M	295.67M
Net Income	204.35M	189.20M	169.96M	152.44M	122.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.80B	8.49B	7.77B	6.71B	5.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.30M	6.40M	10.91M	27.76M	43.25M
Total Debt	3.35B	2.83B	2.45B	1.98B	1.88B
Total Liabilities	3.53B	2.98B	2.57B	2.08B	1.81B
Stockholders Equity	6.27B	5.51B	5.20B	4.63B	3.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	504.14M	431.97M	391.60M	362.12M	246.31M
Operating Cash Flow	504.14M	431.97M	391.60M	362.12M	246.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.54B	-885.41M	-1.27B	-1.62B	-1.39B
Financing Cash Flow	1.05B	445.31M	869.01M	1.24B	1.18B

Agree Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 79.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.21, above the 50-day MA of 73.45, and above the 200-day MA of 72.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADC.

Agree Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NNN	80 Outperform	$8.45B	21.50	8.89%	6.04%	4.53%	-3.46%
ADC	79 Outperform	$9.51B	44.86	3.47%	4.28%	14.67%	-5.17%
BRX	73 Outperform	$9.14B	23.80	12.86%	4.41%	6.07%	-0.28%
FRT	72 Outperform	$9.35B	23.03	12.76%	4.38%	6.05%	14.70%
PECO	71 Outperform	$5.39B	43.97	4.83%	3.52%	10.58%	37.97%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
KRG	65 Neutral	$5.38B	19.02	9.35%	4.55%	3.67%	―

Agree Realty Corporate Events

Agree Realty Highlights Strong Liquidity and Forward Equity Plan

On February 26, 2026, Agree Realty posted an updated investor presentation outlining that it has entered into forward sale agreements tied to its at-the-market equity program to sell about 8.3 million shares of common stock, generating anticipated net proceeds exceeding $623 million. In total, the company now has 17.9 million shares of outstanding forward equity, representing more than $1.3 billion in expected proceeds, contributing to total liquidity of over $2.5 billion when combined with cash, full availability on a $350 million term loan and $812 million of remaining capacity on its revolving credit facility after commercial paper.

The presentation underscores that the REIT’s balance sheet is positioned as a key competitive asset, with no material debt maturities until 2028 and roughly $1.6 billion of hedged capital supporting its growth plans. Management links this liquidity and capital flexibility to its ability to fund a robust pipeline of net lease retail investments and to support projected growth in adjusted funds from operations and dividends, reinforcing its standing as a well-capitalized consolidator in the retail net lease space.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADC) stock is a Buy with a $86.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agree Realty stock, see the ADC Stock Forecast page.

Agree Realty Highlights 2025 Investment Volume and Liquidity

On January 5, 2026, Agree Realty reported that its total 2025 real estate investment volume reached approximately $1.55 billion, covering 338 net lease retail properties across 41 states, with $1.44 billion of that deployed into 305 acquisitions at a weighted-average cap rate of 7.2% and an average remaining lease term of 11.5 years. The company continued to concentrate its portfolio on high-quality tenants, with 66.8% of annualized base rent coming from investment-grade retailers and ground leases rising to 10.2% of rent, while also disclosing weighted-average basic and diluted share counts for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. In capital markets activity during the fourth quarter of 2025, Agree Realty arranged an undrawn $350 million unsecured term loan with a swapped fixed rate of 4.02% and an accordion feature up to $500 million, executed forward sale agreements for 1.5 million shares through its at-the-market equity program, and settled 5.9 million shares for about $428 million in proceeds. Supported by over $2.0 billion of total liquidity at year-end 2025, including a sizable revolving credit facility, term loan availability, outstanding forward equity and cash, management highlighted a strengthened balance sheet and robust external growth platforms as key underpinnings for future earnings growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADC) stock is a Hold with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agree Realty stock, see the ADC Stock Forecast page.