Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)
NYSE:ADC
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Agree Realty
(NYSE:ADC)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$82.00
â–²(3.20% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook with reiterated AFFO guidance and strong balance-sheet/liquidity commentary. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum and a valuation profile that looks expensive on P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Very high occupancy and leasing performance
Sustained 99.7% occupancy and >104% lease recapture reflect durable tenant demand and low vacancy risk across a diversified national net-lease portfolio. High occupancy supports stable contractual rent rolls, predictable cash flow, and limited near-term leasing capital requirements.
Negative Factors
Material dilution risk from forward equity programs
Heavy use of ATM and forward equity provides funding but creates recurring dilution risk to AFFO and per‑share metrics when settled. Over time, frequent equity issuance can constrain per-share growth and complicate investors' assessment of operational progress, making capital allocation execution critical.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very high occupancy and leasing performance
Sustained 99.7% occupancy and >104% lease recapture reflect durable tenant demand and low vacancy risk across a diversified national net-lease portfolio. High occupancy supports stable contractual rent rolls, predictable cash flow, and limited near-term leasing capital requirements.
Read all positive factors
Agree Realty (ADC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.10B
Dividend Yield4.28%
Average Volume (3M)1.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.3
Beta (1Y)<0.01
Revenue Growth17.67%
EPS Growth3.73%
CountryUS
Employees75
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.86
Shares Outstanding120,102,860
10 Day Avg. Volume961,862
30 Day Avg. Volume1,029,159
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-34.93
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)11.10
P/FCF Ratio15.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$84.79Price Target Upside6.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)1.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$833.04M
Agree Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading retail tenants. As of September 30, 2020, the Company owned and operated a...
How the Company Makes Money
Agree Realty primarily makes money by owning income-producing real estate and collecting contractual rent from tenants under long-term leases, most commonly structured as net leases. Under net-lease arrangements, tenants typically pay base rent an...
Agree Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance: robust acquisition activity, record equity raises, ample liquidity, conservative leverage with extensive hedging, double-digit percentage growth in core metrics year-over-year, high occupancy and lease recapture, and an accelerating development pipeline. The main negatives are manageable: increased near-term dilution risk from outstanding forward equity, continued macro/rate uncertainty, and modest credit/occupancy loss assumptions built into guidance. Overall, the positives substantially outweigh the listed risks.Positive Updates
Robust Acquisition Activity and Portfolio Expansion
Invested nearly $425M across three external growth platforms in Q1, completing $403M of acquisitions (largest quarterly volume since 2022) across 100 properties. Acquired portfolio at a weighted average cap rate of 7.1% with a weighted average lease term of 11.3 years; ~60% of base rents acquired derive from investment-grade retailers.
Negative Updates
Increased Dilution Risk from Forward Equity
Treasury stock method dilution for FY 2026 AFFO is expected to be $0.02–$0.04 (up from ~$0.01 previously) due to a higher share price and additional outstanding forward equity; ~18.4M forward shares (~$1.4B proceeds) present potential dilution when settled (management expects settlement of ~8M shares in 2026).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Robust Acquisition Activity and Portfolio Expansion
Invested nearly $425M across three external growth platforms in Q1, completing $403M of acquisitions (largest quarterly volume since 2022) across 100 properties. Acquired portfolio at a weighted average cap rate of 7.1% with a weighted average lease term of 11.3 years; ~60% of base rents acquired derive from investment-grade retailers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agree Realty reiterated full‑year 2026 AFFO guidance of $4.54–$4.58 per share (midpoint implying ~5.4% YoY growth), with Q1 AFFO of $1.14 (+7.9% YoY) and core FFO of $1.13 (+8.1% YoY); guidance factors include parameters for investment & disposition volume, G&A, non‑reimbursable real estate and tax expenses and assumes 25–50 bps of credit and occupancy loss for the year (Q1 was ~14 bps). Management warned of treasury stock method dilution of $0.02–$0.04 to 2026 AFFO (up from ~ $0.01 prior) tied to forward equity and share price, noted expected settlement timing for portions of outstanding forward equity, and highlighted balance‑sheet support for guidance: pro forma net debt/recurring EBITDA ~3.2x, total liquidity ≈ $2.3B, hedged capital > $1.6B (including a record ~$1.4B forward equity), total debt/enterprise value <29%, fixed‑charge coverage 4.2x, no material maturities until 2028, expected free cash flow after dividends > $140M (>10% YoY increase), and a Q1 dividend run‑rate (Jan–Mar) of $0.262/month (annualized >$3.14, +3.6% YoY) increased to $0.267/month in April (annualized >$3.20, +4.3% YoY) with a Q1 payout ratio of 69% of AFFO.Agree Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 750.04M | 718.40M | 617.10M | 537.50M | 429.81M | 339.32M |
| Gross Profit | 657.38M | 630.25M | 542.25M | 470.78M | 377.53M | 298.26M |
| EBITDA | 613.29M | 617.06M | 543.26M | 463.95M | 386.24M | 295.67M |
| Net Income | 219.58M | 204.35M | 189.20M | 169.96M | 152.44M | 122.27M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.18B | 9.80B | 8.49B | 7.77B | 6.71B | 5.23B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.08M | 16.30M | 6.40M | 10.91M | 27.76M | 43.25M |
| Total Debt | 3.29B | 3.35B | 2.83B | 2.45B | 1.98B | 1.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.95B | 3.53B | 2.98B | 2.57B | 2.08B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.24B | 6.27B | 5.51B | 5.20B | 4.63B | 3.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 110.30M | 504.14M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 522.63M | 504.14M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.59B | -1.54B | -885.41M | -1.27B | -1.62B | -1.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.09B | 1.05B | 445.31M | 869.01M | 1.24B | 1.18B |
Agree Realty Technical Analysis
Neutral
79.46
Price Trends
76.60
Negative
75.43
Positive
73.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.40
Positive
45.41
Neutral
47.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 79.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.05, above the 50-day MA of 76.60, and above the 200-day MA of 73.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ADC.
Agree Realty Risk Analysis
Agree Realty disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agree Realty reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agree Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $9.99B | 14.36 | 15.55% | 4.38% | 7.43% | 65.72% | |
75 Outperform | $9.21B | 17.30 | 14.86% | 4.41% | 5.92% | 37.44% | |
71 Outperform | $8.43B | 21.14 | 8.81% | 6.04% | 5.77% | -4.61% | |
70 Outperform | $5.55B | 38.49 | 5.05% | 3.52% | 9.06% | 59.27% | |
68 Neutral | $5.29B | 110.80 | 9.22% | 4.55% | -3.59% | 1197.42% | |
67 Neutral | $9.10B | 36.30 | 3.65% | 4.28% | 17.67% | 3.73% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ADC
Agree Realty
75.54
3.72
5.17%
NNN
NNN REIT
45.30
6.51
16.77%
KRG
Kite Realty Group
26.52
5.88
28.51%
FRT
Federal Realty
116.06
26.32
29.32%
BRX
Brixmor Property
30.42
6.71
28.27%
PECO
Phillips Edison & Company
39.99
6.84
20.65%
Agree Realty Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Agree Realty Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Pay
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Agree Realty Corporation held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, where shareholders voted on the election of two directors, the ratification of Grant Thornton LLP as independent auditor for 2026, and a non-binding advisory v...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Agree Realty Launches New $1.75 Billion ATM Program
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
On April 24, 2026, Agree Realty Corporation and its operating partnership launched a new at-the-market equity program allowing the company to issue and sell up to $1.75 billion of common stock through a syndicate of major banks and broker-dealers,...
Financial Disclosures
Agree Realty Updates Share Count and Dilution Metrics
Neutral
Apr 2, 2026
On April 2, 2026, Agree Realty Corporation reported the weighted-average number of its common shares outstanding for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, detailing figures used for both basic and diluted earnings per share calculations. The company a...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Agree Realty Highlights Strong Liquidity and Forward Equity Plan
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Agree Realty posted an updated investor presentation outlining that it has entered into forward sale agreements tied to its at-the-market equity program to sell about 8.3 million shares of common stock, generating anticipated...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.