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Agree Realty (ADC)
NYSE:ADC
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Agree Realty
(NYSE:ADC)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$81.00
▲(14.02% Upside)
Agree Realty's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are the most significant factors driving its stock score. While the technical analysis suggests a neutral trend, and the valuation indicates potential overvaluation, the company's robust financial health and strategic growth initiatives provide a solid foundation for future performance.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates effective portfolio expansion and tenant demand, supporting long-term financial stability and market position.
Strong Financial Position
A strong financial position with substantial liquidity enhances Agree Realty's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.
High Occupancy Rates
High occupancy rates reflect strong tenant relationships and demand for properties, ensuring stable rental income and reducing vacancy risks.
Negative Factors
Consumer Sentiment Decline
Declining consumer sentiment may affect retail tenants' performance, potentially impacting rental income and property demand in the long term.
Potential Tenant Bankruptcy
Potential tenant bankruptcies could lead to vacancies and reduced rental income, posing risks to revenue stability and portfolio performance.
Tariff Concerns
Tariffs may increase construction costs and affect retailer operations, potentially impacting development projects and tenant profitability.
Agree Realty (ADC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.81B
Dividend Yield4.3%
Average Volume (3M)894.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.1
Beta (1Y)0.09
Revenue Growth13.27%
EPS Growth-5.92%
CountryUS
Employees75
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding110,666,080
10 Day Avg. Volume807,186
30 Day Avg. Volume894,553
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue17.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$81.90Price Target Upside15.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
Agree Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAgree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading retail tenants. As of September 30, 2020, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 1,027 properties, located in 45 states and containing approximately 21.0 million square feet of gross leasable area. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ADC.
How the Company Makes MoneyAgree Realty generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of retail properties leased to tenants under long-term net lease agreements. These agreements typically require tenants to cover property expenses such as taxes, insurance, and maintenance, resulting in a relatively stable cash flow for the company. In addition to rental income, Agree Realty may also benefit from property appreciation and potential lease escalations over time, enhancing its overall revenue. The company strategically focuses on high-quality tenants with strong credit ratings, which minimizes default risk and supports reliable income streams. Furthermore, Agree Realty's growth is bolstered by its active acquisition strategy, allowing it to expand its portfolio and increase rental revenues, while partnerships with reputable retailers further solidify its position in the market.
Agree Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a largely positive outlook, with significant investment growth, a strong financial position, and increased guidance for AFFO. High occupancy rates and strategic acquisitions were key highlights. However, concerns about consumer sentiment, potential bankruptcy of At Home, and tariff impacts were noted as potential challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Investment Growth
Agree Realty invested over $725 million in the first half of the year, a more than twofold increase from the previous year. They raised their full-year investment volume guidance to $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion, representing a 58% increase over last year.
Strong Financial Position
The company raised over $1 billion in capital year-to-date and has over $2.3 billion in total liquidity. They reported a pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA of just 3.1x at the quarter end.
Increased AFFO Guidance
Agree Realty raised their full-year AFFO per share guidance by $0.02 to a new range of $4.29 to $4.32, indicating over 4% growth at the midpoint.
High Occupancy and Strong Lease Renewals
The company achieved an occupancy rate of 99.6% and executed new leases, extensions, or options on approximately 950,000 square feet of gross leasable area during the quarter.
Retailer Demand and Strategic Investments
The company reported the highest level of retailer demand for new brick-and-mortar locations since the financial crisis and invested in strategic acquisitions, including a $75 million grocery-dominated portfolio.
Negative Updates
Consumer Sentiment Decline
Consumer health and sentiment have deteriorated, which could impact retail demand and spending.
At Home Potential Bankruptcy Concerns
Concerns about At Home potentially facing a fate similar to Party City, JOANN, and Rite Aid, indicating possible liquidation.
Tariff Concerns
Potential impact of tariffs on construction costs and retailer operations, though current impact on total project costs is estimated at 1.5%.
Company Guidance
During the Agree Realty Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company raised its full year investment volume guidance to a range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion, reflecting a 58% increase over the previous year's total investment volume. Additionally, Agree Realty updated its full year AFFO per share guidance to a range of $4.29 to $4.32, representing over 4% growth at the midpoint. The company's balance sheet remains solid with over $2.3 billion in total liquidity and a pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA of 3.1x. For the second quarter, Agree Realty reported core FFO per share of $1.05, a 1.3% increase from the same quarter last year, and AFFO per share of $1.06, which is a 1.7% year-over-year increase. The company also maintained a well-covered dividend payout ratio of 72% of AFFO per share.Agree Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Agree Realty showcases a robust financial profile with consistent revenue and cash flow growth, strong profit margins, and a stable balance sheet. However, slight declines in net profit margins and ROE warrant monitoring.Income Statement
Agree Realty has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the past years, with a notable increase from $248.6M in 2020 to $659.8M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. Gross profit margins are robust, consistently above 80%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased from 2024 to TTM 2025, reflecting increased expenses or operational costs.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a solid financial position with a high equity ratio of 62.2% in TTM 2025, indicating financial stability and a lower risk of financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio remains moderate at 0.51, suggesting manageable leverage levels. Return on equity has slightly decreased, which could indicate potential challenges in generating profits from equity.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Agree Realty's cash flow statements reveal a healthy operating cash flow, growing consistently over the years. The free cash flow has also shown significant growth, indicating strong cash-generating capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests effective cash conversion from net income.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 659.75M | 617.10M | 537.50M | 429.81M | 339.32M | 248.57M |
| Gross Profit | 578.84M | 542.25M | 470.78M | 377.53M | 298.26M | 216.82M |
| EBITDA | 567.37M | 543.26M | 463.95M | 386.24M | 295.67M | 215.80M |
| Net Income | 183.95M | 189.20M | 169.96M | 152.44M | 122.27M | 91.38M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.08B | 8.49B | 7.77B | 6.71B | 5.23B | 3.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.91M | 6.40M | 10.91M | 27.76M | 43.25M | 6.14M |
| Total Debt | 3.30B | 2.83B | 2.41B | 1.94B | 1.69B | 1.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.43B | 2.98B | 2.57B | 2.08B | 1.81B | 1.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.65B | 5.51B | 5.20B | 4.63B | 3.42B | 2.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 478.15M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M | 142.96M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 478.15M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M | 142.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.32B | -885.41M | -1.27B | -1.62B | -1.39B | -1.30B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 827.48M | 445.31M | 869.01M | 1.24B | 1.18B | 1.12B |
Agree Realty Technical Analysis
Positive
71.04
Price Trends
72.15
Negative
72.41
Negative
72.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Positive
51.06
Neutral
38.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.60, below the 50-day MA of 72.15, and below the 200-day MA of 72.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADC.
Agree Realty Risk Analysis
Agree Realty disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agree Realty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agree Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $7.81B | 42.06 | 3.44% | 4.30% | 13.27% | -5.92% | |
75 Outperform | $7.95B | 20.03 | 9.10% | 5.50% | 4.82% | -5.18% | |
75 Outperform | $8.40B | 25.11 | 11.37% | 4.10% | 5.98% | 12.11% | |
74 Outperform | $8.68B | 25.34 | 10.65% | 4.37% | 6.00% | 15.77% | |
71 Outperform | $4.74B | 64.95 | 3.01% | 3.60% | 10.31% | 14.39% | |
68 Neutral | $4.84B | 28.08 | 5.20% | 4.80% | 4.03% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ADC
Agree Realty
71.72
-0.50
-0.69%
NNN
NNN REIT
42.98
-2.80
-6.12%
KRG
Kite Realty Group
22.18
-2.65
-10.67%
FRT
Federal Realty
99.64
-6.73
-6.33%
BRX
Brixmor Property
27.35
0.79
2.97%
PECO
Phillips Edison & Company
34.33
-1.13
-3.19%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.