Agree Realty (ADC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.51B
• Dividend Yield: 4.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 44.9
• Beta (1Y): -0.06
• Revenue Growth: 14.67%
• EPS Growth: -5.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 120,028,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,371,409
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,251,924
• PEG Ratio: -34.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 17.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.89
• 1Y Price Target: $81.65
• Price Target Upside: 2.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $800.89M

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $86.00 ▲(8.09% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably rising operating/free cash flow and consistent multi-year growth) and a constructive earnings outlook with raised investment guidance and solid liquidity. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive momentum indicators. Valuation is the main limiter due to a high P/E, partially offset by the ~4.1% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Agree Realty’s operating cash flow growth to $504M and consistent free cash flow conversion create durable internal funding for dividends, development, and acquisitions. High cash conversion supports coverage of AFFO-based dividend policy and reduces reliance on external financing over multi-year horizons.

High-quality, high-occupancy portfolio

Near-100% occupancy and a two-thirds mix of investment-grade tenants with long average lease durations materially lower vacancy and cash-flow volatility. This tenant and lease profile supports predictable rental income and durable AFFO stability through economic cycles.

Strong liquidity and capital markets access

Robust liquidity, limited near-term maturities and an A‑minus rating give Agree flexibility to fund $1.4–$1.6B of planned 2026 investments. Demonstrated ability to raise long-term capital and hedge rates reduces refinancing risk and supports steady portfolio growth over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Forward-equity dilution risk

Significant outstanding forward-equity proceeds introduce dilution and timing uncertainty: if settlements occur before reinvestment, per-share AFFO and leverage metrics can shift. This creates variability in reported EPS/AFFO and complicates leverage targets over the next 2–3 quarters.

Leverage sensitivity to equity timing

Debt metrics swing materially depending on forward-equity settlement, leaving reported leverage near upper policy bands if equity delays. That sensitivity elevates refinancing and credit-profile risk through 2026, potentially constraining acquisition pacing or increasing financing costs if markets tighten.

Elevated construction costs pressure development returns

Persistently higher construction and input costs compress development economics and extend payback periods on new projects. For a REIT with an active development/DFP platform, sustained cost inflation can reduce returns on invested capital and slow accretive growth from internal pipelines.

Agree Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading retail tenants. As of September 30, 2020, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 1,027 properties, located in 45 states and containing approximately 21.0 million square feet of gross leasable area. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ADC.

How the Company Makes Money

Agree Realty generates revenue primarily through rental income derived from its extensive portfolio of retail properties. The company's revenue model is built on long-term leases with creditworthy tenants, ensuring consistent cash flow. Key revenue streams include base rent, percentage rent from sales exceeding a certain threshold, and tenant reimbursements for property expenses. Additionally, ADC engages in property development and redevelopment projects, which can enhance rental income and increase property value. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with well-established retailers, further solidifying its revenue base and providing opportunities for expansion.

Agree Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving operating cash flow and free cash flow (OCF up to $504M in 2025) alongside multi-year revenue and net income growth. Offsets include decelerating growth in 2025, some net margin drift versus earlier years, and materially higher absolute debt as the portfolio scales.

Income Statement

Agree Realty shows a strong multi-year growth profile, with revenue rising consistently from $249M (2020) to $718M (2025), though the growth rate has moderated meaningfully in the latest year (about 4% in 2025 vs. mid-to-high teens or better in prior years). Profitability appears solid and stable for the business model, with net income increasing over time ($91M in 2020 to $197M in 2025) and healthy operating profitability in the years where margins are provided. Key watch-out: net margin has drifted down from the mid-to-high 30% range (2020–2022) to low 30% (2023–2024), suggesting incremental pressure on profitability even as the company scales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks generally sound with equity building steadily (from $2.5B in 2020 to $6.3B in 2025) alongside asset growth (from $3.9B to $9.8B). Leverage is moderate for a REIT, with debt-to-equity around ~0.43–0.55 historically (about 0.51 in 2024), but absolute debt has climbed materially (from $1.3B in 2020 to $2.95B in 2025), which increases sensitivity to refinancing and rate conditions. Returns on equity are steady but modest (low-to-mid 3% range in 2021–2024), indicating consistent profitability but not exceptional capital efficiency.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow has increased from $143M (2020) to $504M (2025), and free cash flow has tracked operating cash flow each year (indicating strong conversion on the figures provided). Free cash flow growth is positive across all periods shown, including ~4% in 2025 after stronger growth in earlier years. Cash flow coverage looks supportive in the years provided, with operating cash flow running roughly ~3x net income (2022–2024), suggesting solid cash backing for reported earnings; the main limitation is the decelerating growth trend in the most recent year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	718.40M	617.10M	537.50M	429.81M	339.32M
Gross Profit	630.25M	542.25M	470.78M	377.53M	298.26M
EBITDA	617.06M	543.26M	463.95M	386.24M	295.67M
Net Income	204.35M	189.20M	169.96M	152.44M	122.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.80B	8.49B	7.77B	6.71B	5.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.30M	6.40M	10.91M	27.76M	43.25M
Total Debt	3.35B	2.83B	2.45B	1.98B	1.88B
Total Liabilities	3.53B	2.98B	2.57B	2.08B	1.81B
Stockholders Equity	6.27B	5.51B	5.20B	4.63B	3.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	504.14M	431.97M	391.60M	362.12M	246.31M
Operating Cash Flow	504.14M	431.97M	391.60M	362.12M	246.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.54B	-885.41M	-1.27B	-1.62B	-1.39B
Financing Cash Flow	1.05B	445.31M	869.01M	1.24B	1.18B

Agree Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 79.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.77, above the 50-day MA of 73.28, and above the 200-day MA of 72.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADC.

Agree Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NNN	80 Outperform	$8.45B	21.50	8.89%	6.04%	4.53%	-3.46%
ADC	79 Outperform	$9.51B	44.86	3.47%	4.28%	14.67%	-5.17%
BRX	73 Outperform	$9.14B	23.80	12.86%	4.41%	6.07%	-0.28%
FRT	72 Outperform	$9.35B	23.03	12.76%	4.38%	6.05%	14.70%
PECO	69 Neutral	$5.39B	43.97	4.83%	3.52%	10.58%	37.97%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
KRG	65 Neutral	$5.38B	19.02	9.35%	4.55%	3.67%	―

Agree Realty Corporate Events

Agree Realty Highlights 2025 Investment Volume and Liquidity

On January 5, 2026, Agree Realty reported that its total 2025 real estate investment volume reached approximately $1.55 billion, covering 338 net lease retail properties across 41 states, with $1.44 billion of that deployed into 305 acquisitions at a weighted-average cap rate of 7.2% and an average remaining lease term of 11.5 years. The company continued to concentrate its portfolio on high-quality tenants, with 66.8% of annualized base rent coming from investment-grade retailers and ground leases rising to 10.2% of rent, while also disclosing weighted-average basic and diluted share counts for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. In capital markets activity during the fourth quarter of 2025, Agree Realty arranged an undrawn $350 million unsecured term loan with a swapped fixed rate of 4.02% and an accordion feature up to $500 million, executed forward sale agreements for 1.5 million shares through its at-the-market equity program, and settled 5.9 million shares for about $428 million in proceeds. Supported by over $2.0 billion of total liquidity at year-end 2025, including a sizable revolving credit facility, term loan availability, outstanding forward equity and cash, management highlighted a strengthened balance sheet and robust external growth platforms as key underpinnings for future earnings growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADC) stock is a Hold with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agree Realty stock, see the ADC Stock Forecast page.

Agree Realty Secures $350 Million Term Loan Agreement

On November 17, 2025, Agree Realty Corporation and Agree Limited Partnership entered into a $350 million unsecured delayed draw term loan agreement with PNC Bank and a syndicate of lenders. The agreement, maturing on May 15, 2031, allows the company to draw funds as needed and includes various financial covenants and interest rate options based on the company’s credit rating. Additionally, the company amended its existing revolving credit and term loan agreements to align with the new terms, reducing interest rates and implementing technical amendments.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADC) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agree Realty stock, see the ADC Stock Forecast page.