Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)
NYSE:ADC
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Agree Realty
(NYSE:ADC)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$91.00
▲(18.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
ADC scores well on fundamentals, led by strong and growing cash generation and generally solid balance-sheet positioning for a REIT, reinforced by constructive 2026 AFFO growth and investment guidance. Technicals are supportive but look somewhat extended. The main restraint on the score is valuation, with a high P/E that leaves less room for disappointment despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Agree's operating cash flow growth to $504M with free cash flow tracking OCF demonstrates durable cash conversion. Strong FCF supports dividend coverage, funds the $1.4–$1.6B investment program, reduces reliance on external capital and underpins AFFO stability across cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising Absolute Debt & Leverage Sensitivity
Absolute debt growth raises refinancing exposure and interest-rate sensitivity; pro forma net debt/recurring EBITDA excluding unsettled forward equity is ~4.9x, near the top of target ranges. Delays in forward equity settlement could leave leverage elevated and constrain capital flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Agree's operating cash flow growth to $504M with free cash flow tracking OCF demonstrates durable cash conversion. Strong FCF supports dividend coverage, funds the $1.4–$1.6B investment program, reduces reliance on external capital and underpins AFFO stability across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Agree Realty (ADC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.21B
Dividend Yield4.28%
Average Volume (3M)1.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)39.0
Beta (1Y)<0.01
Revenue Growth14.67%
EPS Growth-5.17%
CountryUS
Employees75
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding120,028,300
10 Day Avg. Volume962,740
30 Day Avg. Volume1,240,300
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-34.93
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)11.10
P/FCF Ratio15.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue17.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$84.71Price Target Upside10.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$816.60M
Agree Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading retail tenants. As of September 30, 2020, the Company owned and operated a...
How the Company Makes Money
Agree Realty generates revenue primarily through rental income derived from its extensive portfolio of retail properties. The company's revenue model is built on long-term leases with creditworthy tenants, ensuring consistent cash flow. Key revenu...
Agree Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple positive operating and financial indicators: solid AFFO and FFO growth, raised 2026 investment guidance, a large and expanding deal pipeline, strong liquidity and hedging, an A‑minus rating, very high occupancy, and record activity across development/DFP. Challenges cited were manageable and mostly operational or cyclical — rising construction costs, modest credit‑loss sensitivity, potential dilution from outstanding forward equity, and leverage variability depending on forward equity settlement. Overall, the positives around growth, balance-sheet strength, and portfolio quality materially outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
AFFO and Earnings Growth with Upbeat 2026 Guidance
Full-year AFFO per share of $4.33 (high end of guidance) representing ~4.6% year-over-year growth; Q4 AFFO per share $1.11 (+6.5% YoY). 2026 AFFO guidance of $4.54–$4.58 (midpoint implies ~5.4% YoY growth) and two-year stacked growth of ~10% at the midpoint.
Negative Updates
Rising Construction Costs Pressure Development Economics
Construction costs remain elevated — typical junior box vertical cost ~ $160/sq ft versus ~$95/sq ft pre-pandemic. Labor constraints and tariffs contribute to higher costs which pressure project feasibility and require value engineering.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
AFFO and Earnings Growth with Upbeat 2026 Guidance
Full-year AFFO per share of $4.33 (high end of guidance) representing ~4.6% year-over-year growth; Q4 AFFO per share $1.11 (+6.5% YoY). 2026 AFFO guidance of $4.54–$4.58 (midpoint implies ~5.4% YoY growth) and two-year stacked growth of ~10% at the midpoint.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agree Realty provided 2026 guidance calling for $1.4–$1.6 billion of investments (≈10% above the prior range and slightly above 2025’s ~$1.55B invested), full‑year AFFO per share of $4.54–$4.58 (midpoint ≈5.4% YoY growth; two‑year stacked ≈10%), and disposition guidance of $5–$75M; assumptions include credit losses of ~25 bps at the high end (50 bps at the low end), an estimated ~$0.01 treasury‑stock dilution to 2026 AFFO (given ~9.6M outstanding forward shares expected to net ~$716M), and parameters for investment/disposition volume, G&A, non‑reimbursable RE expenses, taxes and dilution. Management highlighted a fortress balance sheet with pro forma net debt/recurring EBITDA of 3.8x (4.9x excluding unsettled forward equity), >$2.0B liquidity (including ~715M forward equity), ~27% total debt/enterprise value, 4.2x fixed‑charge coverage, no material maturities until 2028, >$500M pipeline supporting the higher investment guide, an anticipated >30 bps G&A reduction as a percent of revenue, and a dividend run‑rate of $3.14+ (monthly 26.2¢; Q4 AFFO payout ~71%), which together with AFFO growth targets implies roughly a 10% operational return.Agree Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
83
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 718.40M | 617.10M | 537.50M | 429.81M | 339.32M |
| Gross Profit | 630.25M | 542.25M | 470.78M | 377.53M | 298.26M |
| EBITDA | 617.06M | 543.26M | 463.95M | 386.24M | 295.67M |
| Net Income | 204.35M | 189.20M | 169.96M | 152.44M | 122.27M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.80B | 8.49B | 7.77B | 6.71B | 5.23B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.30M | 6.40M | 10.91M | 27.76M | 43.25M |
| Total Debt | 3.35B | 2.83B | 2.45B | 1.98B | 1.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.53B | 2.98B | 2.57B | 2.08B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.27B | 5.51B | 5.20B | 4.63B | 3.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 504.14M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 504.14M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.54B | -885.41M | -1.27B | -1.62B | -1.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.05B | 445.31M | 869.01M | 1.24B | 1.18B |
Agree Realty Technical Analysis
Positive
76.76
Price Trends
76.75
Positive
74.23
Positive
72.52
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.46
Negative
50.79
Neutral
68.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.71, above the 50-day MA of 76.75, and above the 200-day MA of 72.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADC.
Agree Realty Risk Analysis
Agree Realty disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agree Realty reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agree Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $8.27B | 19.50 | 8.88% | 6.04% | 4.53% | -3.46% | |
79 Outperform | $9.21B | 39.03 | 3.49% | 4.28% | 14.67% | -5.17% | |
73 Outperform | $9.01B | 20.85 | 13.01% | 4.41% | 6.07% | -0.28% | |
72 Outperform | $9.32B | 21.05 | 12.74% | 4.38% | 6.05% | 14.70% | |
71 Outperform | $5.27B | 23.40 | 4.86% | 3.52% | 10.58% | 37.97% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $5.20B | 7.10 | 9.31% | 4.55% | 3.67% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ADC
Agree Realty
77.97
8.03
11.48%
NNN
NNN REIT
44.00
7.12
19.31%
KRG
Kite Realty Group
25.23
6.02
31.37%
FRT
Federal Realty
107.39
22.33
26.25%
BRX
Brixmor Property
29.57
6.56
28.53%
PECO
Phillips Edison & Company
38.59
5.29
15.88%
Agree Realty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Agree Realty Highlights Strong Liquidity and Forward Equity Plan
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Agree Realty posted an updated investor presentation outlining that it has entered into forward sale agreements tied to its at-the-market equity program to sell about 8.3 million shares of common stock, generating anticipated...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Agree Realty Highlights 2025 Investment Volume and Liquidity
Positive
Jan 5, 2026
On January 5, 2026, Agree Realty reported that its total 2025 real estate investment volume reached approximately $1.55 billion, covering 338 net lease retail properties across 41 states, with $1.44 billion of that deployed into 305 acquisitions a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.