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Brixmor Property (BRX)
NYSE:BRX
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Brixmor Property
(NYSE:BRX)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(4.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability and cash generation despite leverage constraints) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages). Earnings call updates add confidence via positive 2026 NOI/FFO guidance and leasing strength, while valuation is moderated by a relatively high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation / Free Cash Flow
Brixmor has produced consistently positive free cash flow with operating cash flow rising through 2025 and FCF tracking net income. Durable cash generation supports dividend sustainability, funds maintenance and redevelopment, and provides flexibility for capital recycling and opportunistic acquisitions over the next several quarters.
Leasing, occupancy and tenant quality
High occupancy and record new-lease activity indicate durable demand for grocery-anchored open-air centers. Strong new-lease and renewal rent growth, plus rising multi-unit operator exposure and new grocer leases, improve tenant credit mix and reduce volatility in cash rents over a multi-quarter horizon.
Disciplined capital allocation & redevelopment returns
Attractive redevelopment yields (~10%), a $336M pipeline and active capital recycling (acquisitions and selective dispositions) show management is focused on return-driven deployment. Short paybacks and record net effective rent support durable value creation and earnings growth from executed redevelopment and accretive buys.
Negative Factors
Leverage / balance-sheet confidence
Historically elevated leverage constrains flexibility in a rate-sensitive REIT sector and limits optionality for large opportunistic investments. The anomalous 2025 debt reporting undermines transparency, increasing near-term risk assessment complexity and potentially raising funding costs if markets perceive weaker disclosure.
Anchor recaptures / redevelopment execution risk
Recapturing large anchor blocks creates multi-year vacancy and redevelopment needs that depress NOI and require capital and leasing execution to realize upside. Such recaptures elevate execution risk, can temporarily weaken cash flows and may necessitate elevated redevelopment spend before rent ramps sustainably.
Competitive acquisition market & cap-rate compression
Intensifying competition and cap-rate compression reduce future returns on acquisitions and make capital recycling harder to execute at attractive spreads. Persistent pricing pressure from institutional buyers could limit Brixmor's ability to buy high-return assets and compress incremental yields over multiple quarters.
Brixmor Property (BRX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.97B
Dividend Yield4.41%
Average Volume (3M)2.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.4
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth6.07%
EPS Growth-0.28%
CountryUS
Employees453
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.44
Shares Outstanding306,589,750
10 Day Avg. Volume2,949,579
30 Day Avg. Volume2,838,714
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.67
Price to Book (P/B)2.68
Price to Sales (P/S)5.87
P/FCF Ratio12.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.90Price Target Upside4.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Brixmor Property Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBrixmor (NYSE: BRX) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates a high-quality, national portfolio of open-air shopping centers. Its 395 retail centers comprise approximately 69 million square feet of prime retail space in established trade areas. The Company strives to own and operate shopping centers that reflect Brixmor's vision to be the center of the communities we serve and are home to a diverse mix of thriving national, regional and local retailers. Brixmor is a proud real estate partner to approximately 5,000 retailers including The TJX Companies, The Kroger Co., Publix Super Markets, Wal-Mart, Ross Stores and L.A. Fitness.
How the Company Makes MoneyBrixmor generates revenue primarily through leasing retail space within its shopping centers to a variety of tenants, including national, regional, and local retailers. The company collects rental income, which constitutes the bulk of its revenue stream. Additionally, Brixmor earns income through percentage rent, which is based on tenants' sales performance, thus aligning its financial success with that of its tenants. The company also engages in property management services and may earn fees associated with the operation and maintenance of its properties. Significant partnerships with well-known retailers help attract more traffic to its centers, enhancing tenant sales and, consequently, Brixmor's rental income. Overall, Brixmor's strategic focus on essential retail sectors and its ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences contribute to its earnings stability and growth potential.
Brixmor Property Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The calling highlighted broad operational momentum: strong leasing volume, record small-shop occupancy, robust rent growth (39% new-lease, 15% renewal), improved tenant quality, disciplined capital deployment (CapEx down 14%), attractive redevelopment yields (10%), and solid balance sheet liquidity ($1.6B). Offsetting items include one-time/Q4-driven lease termination income and non-cash items tied to bankruptcies, recapture of 1.5M sq ft of anchors (creating ~200 bps headwind), and a modest interest expense headwind (~$0.03 per share) embedded in 2026 guidance. On balance, the positive operating fundamentals and pipeline visibility materially outweigh the transitory and execution-related headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Leadership Transition and Strategic Continuity
Brian Finnegan named permanent CEO after 21 years at the company; internal promotions (Stacy Slater, Matt Ryan) and continued three-region operating model preserve continuity while emphasizing technology, analytics, and disciplined capital allocation.
Same Property NOI Growth
Same property NOI grew 4.2% for the full year and increased 6.0% in Q4, driven by base rent stacking (360 bps contribution) and ancillary/other income (200 bps contribution in Q4).
FFO Performance and 2026 Guidance
NAREIT FFO per share for 2025 was $2.25, up 5.6% year-over-year and at the high end of guidance; 2026 NAREIT FFO guidance introduced at $2.33–$2.37 per share (midpoint ≈ +4.4% growth).
Record Leasing and Occupancy Gains
Delivered a record $70 million of new ABR commenced in 2025 and executed an additional $70 million of net rent; small shop occupancy reached a new high of 92.2%; overall occupancy increased 100 basis points sequentially to 95.1%.
Strong Rent Growth Metrics
New-lease rent growth for the year was 39%; renewal rent growth was 15% (third consecutive year of mid-teens renewal growth); retention rate improved to 87%, up 180 basis points year-over-year.
Robust Redevelopment & Pipeline Economics
Stabilized $183 million of redevelopment projects in 2025 at an attractive 10% incremental yield; active pipeline totaled $336 million at year-end; signed-but-not-commenced pipeline was $62 million (avg. $23/sqft) including $50 million net new rent, with ~$43 million expected to commence throughout 2026.
Capital Efficiency and Lower CapEx
Overall CapEx spending down 14% year-over-year (lowest since 2021); maintenance CapEx at lowest level since 2016 (excluding pandemic); leasing and maintenance CapEx down ~$26 million YoY; payback period averaged two years and net effective rent reached a record $23.66.
Transaction Activity and Capital Recycling
Acquired ~ $420 million of asset value in 2025 (Houston, Southern California, Denver) and completed $170 million of dispositions in Q4 to recycle capital into higher-return opportunities; management highlights ability to buy assets with higher IRRs while selling lower-growth assets at improved cap rates.
Balance Sheet Strength and Liquidity
Available liquidity of $1.6 billion, including $360 million of cash from a September 2025 issuance; debt-to-EBITDA ~5.4x and management comfortable in mid-5x range; dividend yield ~4.4% with dividend CAGR of ~6% since 2022.
Improved Tenant Quality and Demand
Tenant base improved meaningfully: 70% of small shop rent derived from multi-unit operators; signed eight new grocer leases (Publix, Sprouts, Big Y); management expects revenues deemed uncollectible to be 75–100 basis points of total revenues for 2026 (top end down from prior range).
Technology & Operational Improvements
Early AI and automation initiatives (lease abstraction, tenant health analysis, leasing prospecting) are producing efficiency gains and improved leasing/legal workflows.
Negative Updates
Anchor Recaptures and Tenant Disruption
Recaptured approximately 1.5 million square feet of anchor space in 2025; tenant disruption created an estimated headwind of over 200 basis points to same property NOI for the year, requiring active re-leasing and redevelopment to realize upside.
Non-Recurring/Q4 Lease Termination Income
Q4 benefited from elevated lease termination (term fee) income tied to a unique East Bay transaction; management noted this was opportunistic and not fully repeatable, implying a normalization headwind for 2026 results.
Non-Cash Revenue Acceleration from Bankruptcies
Some non-cash rent acceleration related to bankruptcies contributed to 2025 results (accounting for acceleration of straight-line rents/ASC 842 impacts); management does not expect this to recur materially in 2026.
Competitive Acquisition Market and Cap-Rate Compression
Management noted cap-rate compression across open-air retail and increased private/pension capital targeting grocery-anchored assets—making acquisition pricing more competitive and bid lists variable by deal size.
Interest Expense Headwind
2026 guidance includes a ~$0.03 per share headwind from higher interest expense, which partially offsets rent-driven NOI growth in the FFO outlook.
Concentration of One-Off Dispositions and Lower-Growth Asset Sales
The company completed dispositions (including low-occupancy assets) when ROI for internal investment was deemed insufficient; while fiscally rational, this indicates pockets where internal revitalization was not pursued and could reflect market/portfolio segmentation challenges.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 same‑property NOI growth of 4.5%–5.5%, driven by more than 450 basis points of base rent contribution (from stacking 2025 commencements and redevelopments), plus net expense reimbursements as average billed occupancy rises, and they expect revenues deemed uncollectible (bad debt) of 75–100 bps of total revenues; NAREIT FFO guidance is $2.33–$2.37 per share (≈4.4% growth at the midpoint) while absorbing a return‑to‑historical lower lease‑termination income level and a $0.03 per‑share interest‑expense headwind. Visibility into the year includes a $62M signed‑but‑not‑commenced pipeline (avg $23/sqft, $50M net new rent, 350 bps lease/build spread) with roughly $43M expected to commence ratably in 2026, and management reiterated efficient capital deployment metrics such as record net effective rent of $23.66 and a two‑year payback amid a 5.4x net debt/EBITDA balance‑sheet position.Brixmor Property Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall fundamentals are solid, supported by steady revenue gains and strong profitability plus improving operating cash flow and consistently positive free cash flow. The main constraint is leverage (historically ~1.7–2.0x debt-to-equity) and the anomalous 2025 reported debt value reduces confidence in the latest balance sheet snapshot.Income Statement
Revenue has grown steadily from 2021–2025 (annual growth mostly low-single-digits in recent years), showing resilience. Profitability is strong for the industry, with healthy gross profitability and solid operating and net margins in 2022–2024; net income also improved from 2023 to 2025. Offsetting this, growth has decelerated versus 2021, and earnings have shown some variability (notably the 2022-to-2023 net income dip).74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the key constraint: debt-to-equity ran around ~1.7–2.0x from 2020–2024, which limits flexibility in a rate-sensitive REIT environment. Equity has grown over time and returns on equity were consistently positive (~10–12% in 2021–2024), supporting balance sheet quality. However, 2025 shows total debt reported as 0, which is inconsistent with prior years and reduces confidence in the latest balance sheet snapshot.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong and improving: operating cash flow rose from 2020 through 2025, and free cash flow is consistently positive with modest growth in 2023–2025. Free cash flow closely tracks net income (reported at 1.0x in 2020–2024), indicating earnings quality. A watch-out is the weaker operating cash flow versus revenue in some years (coverage below 1.0x in 2023–2024), suggesting periodic working-capital or timing impacts.77
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.37B | 1.29B | 1.25B | 1.22B | 1.15B |
| Gross Profit | 1.03B | 967.94M | 925.05M | 906.28M | 854.49M |
| EBITDA | 1.03B | 936.67M | 858.10M | 891.35M | 792.12M |
| Net Income | 386.23M | 339.27M | 305.09M | 354.19M | 270.19M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.13B | 8.91B | 8.33B | 8.44B | 8.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 361.53M | 397.92M | 20.78M | 16.49M | 296.63M |
| Total Debt | 5.87B | 5.34B | 4.93B | 5.08B | 5.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.12B | 5.92B | 5.48B | 5.57B | 5.66B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.01B | 2.98B | 2.85B | 2.87B | 2.72B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 652.01M | 624.69M | 588.79M | 566.38M | 552.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 652.01M | 624.69M | 588.79M | 566.38M | 552.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -452.23M | -437.02M | -163.08M | -462.45M | -331.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -216.94M | 172.12M | -428.07M | -380.41M | -293.58M |
Brixmor Property Technical Analysis
Positive
29.66
Price Trends
26.63
Positive
26.45
Positive
26.03
Positive
Market Momentum
0.88
Negative
73.41
Negative
85.82
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.86, above the 50-day MA of 26.63, and above the 200-day MA of 26.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.41 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BRX.
Brixmor Property Risk Analysis
Brixmor Property disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brixmor Property reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brixmor Property Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $8.28B | 21.06 | 8.89% | 6.04% | 4.53% | -3.46% | |
79 Outperform | $9.20B | 43.41 | 3.47% | 4.28% | 14.67% | -5.17% | |
73 Outperform | $8.97B | 23.36 | 12.86% | 4.41% | 6.07% | -0.28% | |
72 Outperform | $9.15B | 22.54 | 12.76% | 4.38% | 6.05% | 14.70% | |
69 Neutral | $5.27B | 43.01 | 4.83% | 3.52% | 10.58% | 37.97% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | $5.25B | 18.58 | 9.35% | 4.55% | 3.67% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
BRX
Brixmor Property
29.66
3.47
13.26%
ADC
Agree Realty
78.24
8.33
11.91%
NNN
NNN REIT
44.35
4.77
12.06%
KRG
Kite Realty Group
25.95
5.13
24.66%
FRT
Federal Realty
107.45
6.51
6.45%
PECO
Phillips Edison & Company
39.25
5.02
14.68%
Brixmor Property Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Brixmor Property Announces CEO Retirement and Successor
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025
On November 24, 2025, Brixmor Property Group announced that its CEO, James M. Taylor Jr., will retire at the end of the year, with Brian T. Finnegan, the current President and COO, set to succeed him on January 1, 2026. This leadership transition is part of Brixmor’s CEO succession plan, and Finnegan, who has been with the company for over 20 years, is expected to continue driving the company’s growth and strategic initiatives, leveraging his extensive experience and leadership within the retail industry.
The most recent analyst rating on (BRX) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brixmor Property stock, see the BRX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.