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Regency Centers (REG)
NASDAQ:REG

Regency Centers (REG) AI Stock Analysis

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REG

Regency Centers

(NASDAQ:REG)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$86.00
â–²(11.91% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong and consistent cash flow generation, solid profitability, and a constructive earnings outlook with strong leasing and development momentum. Technicals are supportive with clear trend strength, while the overall score is held back by a relatively high P/E valuation and noted risks around the latest-year revenue/margin volatility and refinancing headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent, strong operating and free cash flow gives Regency durable flexibility to fund dividends, development and acquisitions without routine equity raises. This cash conversion underpins the REIT model, supports debt service and funds accretive capital deployment, sustaining earnings and growth over multi-quarter horizons.
Leasing & Occupancy
Sustained high occupancy and robust renewal/new lease spreads indicate durable tenant demand for grocery-anchored centers. Embedded contractual steps and strong spread history support recurring rental growth and NOI resilience, improving predictability of rental income and protecting margins across economic cycles.
Development Pipeline & Yields
A deep, accretive development/redevelopment pipeline with mid-to-high single-digit yields supplies organic NOI growth and portfolio reweighting opportunities. When funded from internal cash flow and targeted acquisitions, these projects can sustainably increase cash flow and NAV over the medium term while diversifying income sources.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Higher absolute debt and a drift up in leverage reduce financial flexibility, increasing sensitivity to interest rates and refinancing cycles. For a capital-intensive REIT, elevated leverage limits capacity to fund new projects or absorb asset‑value declines without resorting to equity or asset sales, stressing longer-term stability.
Refinancing Drag
A projected 100–150bp refinancing headwind materially reduces near-term FFO and core EPS, pressuring distributable cash even if operations remain strong. Persistent higher rates or concentrated maturities could prolong earnings compression and raise the cost of future capital for growth projects.
Revenue & Margin Volatility
Large year-over-year revenue and gross margin swings signal episodic volatility from transactions or accounting items that can distort earnings and cash metrics. Such variability complicates forecasting, could mask underlying leasing trends, and raises the risk that short-term gains may not translate into sustained organic revenue growth.

Regency Centers (REG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Regency Centers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRegency Centers is the preeminent national owner, operator, and developer of shopping centers located in affluent and densely populated trade areas. Our portfolio includes thriving properties merchandised with highly productive grocers, restaurants, service providers, and best-in-class retailers that connect to their neighborhoods, communities, and customers. Operating as a fully integrated real estate company, Regency Centers is a qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) that is self-administered, self-managed, and an S&P 500 Index member.
How the Company Makes MoneyRegency Centers generates revenue primarily through rental income from its retail properties, which includes long-term leases with tenants. The company typically charges its tenants a base rent along with additional charges for common area maintenance, property taxes, and insurance, which contribute to its overall income. Additionally, Regency may earn revenue from leasing space for promotional events and advertising. The firm also benefits from strategic partnerships with key national retailers, which enhance its tenant mix and attract customers. Furthermore, the company engages in property development and redevelopment projects, adding value to its portfolio and generating additional revenues through increased rent from newly developed spaces. Economic factors, such as consumer spending trends and retail market dynamics, also play a critical role in influencing its earnings.

Regency Centers Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Number of Properties
Number of Properties
Indicates the total count of properties owned, reflecting the company's market presence and potential for rental income generation.
Chart InsightsRegency Centers has significantly increased its property count since mid-2023, reflecting strategic acquisitions, including five shopping centers in Orange County. This expansion aligns with robust financial performance and a positive earnings outlook, driven by strong leasing activity and capital deployment. Despite potential risks from tenant bankruptcies, the company’s raised guidance for NOI growth and strong balance sheet suggest resilience and continued growth potential.
Data provided by:The Fly

Regency Centers Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a clearly positive operational and financial picture: strong 2025 results (same-property NOI >5%, FFO and core EPS growth ~8% and ~7%), highly active and accretive capital deployment, a deep and visible development pipeline, record lease spreads and high occupancy, and a healthy balance sheet. The primary near-term headwinds are a lower same-property NOI guidance range for 2026 (3.25%–3.75%) compared with 2025 performance, a forecasted 100–150 bps refinancing drag on earnings, and limited incremental occupancy upside versus the outsized occupancy gains realized in 2025. These negatives are manageable given the scale of positive operating fundamentals, accretive development economics and strong liquidity.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Same-Property NOI and Leasing Momentum
Delivered same-property NOI growth of 5.3% in 2025; same-property shop occupancy reached a record 94.2% (up 40 bps in Q4); average commenced occupancy increased 150 bps year-over-year. Q4 cash rent spreads were 12%, renewal spreads a record 13%, and GAAP rent spreads hit an all-time high of 25%.
Strong Earnings Growth
Nareit FFO per share grew close to 8% and core operating earnings per share grew nearly 7% for the full year 2025.
Active and Accretive Capital Deployment
Deployed more than $825 million in 2025, including over $500 million of high-quality acquisitions and roughly $300 million of development and redevelopment projects.
Robust Development & Redevelopment Performance
Started more than $300 million of new projects in 2025 (24 projects across 16 markets), more than $800 million of starts over the past 3 years; ground-up development yields north of 7%; Q4 completions totaled >$160 million at a blended ~9% return and are >98% leased.
Visible Forward Pipeline
In-process pipeline of nearly $600 million and visibility into nearly $1 billion of project starts over the next 3 years; 2026 development spend guidance of $325 million (~2/3 ground-up, ~1/3 redevelopment).
Favorable Lease Economics and Embedded Steps
More than 95% (96% cited for new/renewal deals) of negotiated leasing activity included annual steps; shop deals: 85% had step increases of 3%+ and 30% were 4%+ — supporting future rent growth.
Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Maintains A3/A- credit ratings (Moody's/S&P); leverage within target range of 5.0x–5.5x; nearly full availability on a $1.5 billion credit facility; strong free cash flow with no need to raise equity to fund pipeline.
Operating Fundamentals — Tenant Health
Reported historically low bad debt / uncollectible lease income (expected to remain below long-term average of ~50 bps of revenue), along with continued tenant sales and foot-traffic growth.
Negative Updates
Lower Same-Property NOI Outlook for 2026
2026 same-property NOI guidance is 3.25%–3.75%, below 2025's ~5.3% achieved growth; management notes internal upside is more limited versus the outsized occupancy-led moves in 2025.
Refinancing Headwind to Earnings
Guidance includes an anticipated 100–150 basis point negative impact from debt refinancing activity on earnings; excluding this impact, midpoint of guidance would be in the mid-5%–6% range.
SNO / Commenced Occupancy Normalization
SNO pipeline equates to ~240 bps of commenced occupancy impact vs. a stabilized average closer to ~185 bps; management does not expect another 150 bps commenced increase in 2026 similar to 2025, indicating a reduction in that strong tailwind.
Competitive Pressure and Access Constraints for Redevelopment
Redevelopment returns are reportedly ~200 bps higher than ground-up development, but incremental redevelopment is partially constrained by access to real estate and timing; competition for development sites is increasing as the market recognizes limited supply.
Amazon Fresh Store Closures (Localized Headwind)
Amazon announced closure of Amazon Fresh fleet; Regency had 4 Amazon Fresh locations that closed. While management views this as convertible opportunity (Whole Foods or other grocers) and leases have Amazon credit and remaining term, the closures create transitional uncertainty and potential leasing timelines.
Quarterly Lumpiness and Specific Timing Risks
Q2 2026 same-property NOI growth expected to be below full-year guidance due to a tough CAM reconciliation comparison; other income and timing of commencements can create uneven quarterly cadence.
Company Guidance
Regency guided 2026 same-property NOI growth of 3.25%–3.75%, noting Q1 should be above the full-year range (driven by a higher expense recovery rate and other income) while Q2 should be below (tough CAM reconciliation comps); management expects uncollectible lease income to remain below its historical average of ~50 bps of revenue and calls out a 100–150 bps anticipated headwind to earnings from debt refinancing (excluding which the midpoint of guidance would be in the mid‑5%–6% range). The company plans ~$325 million of 2026 development/redevelopment spend (roughly two‑thirds ground‑up, one‑third redev), has an in‑process pipeline near $600 million and visibility to nearly $1 billion of project starts over the next three years, and still expects to convert SNO pipeline (≈$45 million of incremental base rent; SNO/commenced dynamics previously moved ~150 bps in 2025 and the SNO pipeline stood near 240 bps with a stabilized target nearer 185 bps). Regency reiterated strong 2025 operating and investment momentum (same‑property NOI ~5.3% in 2025; >$825M deployed in 2025 including >$500M acquisitions and ~$300M development/redev), emphasized balance‑sheet strength (A3/A‑ ratings, leverage in a 5.0–5.5x target range, nearly full availability on a $1.5B credit facility) and said free cash flow funds the program without equity raises.

Regency Centers Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Supported by strong cash generation (Cash Flow Score 81) and solid profitability (Income Statement Score 72), but tempered by the latest-year revenue contraction and gross margin step-down plus modestly higher leverage (Balance Sheet Score 64).
Income Statement
72
Positive
Profitability is strong for a retail REIT, with consistently high EBITDA margins (~58%–64%) and solid net margins in most years (generally ~26%–38%), rebounding sharply from the 2020 downturn. Revenue grew steadily from 2021–2024, but the latest annual period shows a material revenue decline (-44.7% growth rate) alongside a large drop in gross margin (to ~44.7% vs. ~71% previously), which is a notable volatility/risk flag despite net income improving versus 2024.
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
The balance sheet looks reasonably stable for a REIT, with debt-to-equity typically in the ~0.68–0.86 range and equity building modestly over time. However, leverage has drifted higher recently (debt rising to ~$5.94B and debt-to-equity ~0.86 in the latest year), which reduces flexibility if rates stay higher or asset values soften; returns on equity are steady but not exceptional (roughly ~5%–8%).
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive and generally trending upward, with a particularly strong free cash flow growth reading in the latest year. Cash flow conversion is solid (free cash flow matching net income in recent years), supporting the business model’s ability to fund dividends, reinvestment, and debt service; the main weakness is that free cash flow was meaningfully lower versus net income in 2021 (conversion below 1x), indicating occasional variability.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.55B1.50B1.37B1.27B1.20B
Gross Profit694.11M1.07B975.08M925.15M877.18M
EBITDA980.61M939.75M839.58M818.05M771.32M
Net Income527.46M400.39M364.56M482.87M361.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.00B12.39B12.43B10.86B10.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments120.66M56.28M84.97M66.47M93.10M
Total Debt5.94B5.02B4.80B4.29B4.30B
Total Liabilities5.82B5.49B5.23B4.68B4.68B
Stockholders Equity6.91B6.72B7.03B6.10B6.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00447.28M525.58M501.86M396.66M
Operating Cash Flow0.00790.65M720.87M656.93M659.39M
Investing Cash Flow0.00-326.64M-341.98M-206.11M-286.35M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-493.02M-355.04M-475.96M-656.46M

Regency Centers Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price76.85
Price Trends
50DMA
71.17
Positive
100DMA
70.56
Positive
200DMA
70.22
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.61
Negative
RSI
65.20
Neutral
STOCH
61.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.27, above the 50-day MA of 71.17, and above the 200-day MA of 70.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REG.

Regency Centers Risk Analysis

Regency Centers disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Regency Centers reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Regency Centers Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$8.28B21.068.89%6.04%4.53%-3.46%
79
Outperform
$9.20B43.413.47%4.28%14.67%-5.17%
77
Outperform
$13.85B26.867.74%4.15%5.38%3.13%
73
Outperform
$8.97B23.3612.86%4.41%6.07%-0.28%
72
Outperform
$9.15B22.5412.76%4.38%6.05%14.70%
71
Outperform
$15.35B27.735.53%5.02%7.99%55.05%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
REG
Regency Centers
76.85
5.46
7.65%
ADC
Agree Realty
78.24
8.33
11.91%
KIM
Kimco Realty
23.17
2.40
11.53%
NNN
NNN REIT
44.35
4.77
12.06%
FRT
Federal Realty
107.45
6.51
6.45%
BRX
Brixmor Property
29.66
3.47
13.26%

Regency Centers Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Regency Centers Expands ATM Equity Program With RBC
Positive
Feb 17, 2026

On February 17, 2026, Regency Centers Corporation expanded its at-the-market equity offering program by adding RBC Capital Markets, LLC and Royal Bank of Canada as additional sales agent, forward seller, and forward purchaser counterparties under an equity distribution agreement and related forward master confirmation. With RBC joining an existing syndicate of major banks, the company can continue to offer and sell up to an aggregate $500 million of common stock, either directly or via forward sale agreements, providing added flexibility in how and when it raises equity capital and potentially smoothing its impact on the market and existing shareholders.

Under the structure, sales agents may sell newly issued shares at prevailing market prices for a commission of up to 2% of gross proceeds, while forward purchasers or their affiliates may borrow and sell shares in connection with forward sale agreements that the company expects to settle primarily through physical delivery. This framework gives Regency Centers multiple tools to time equity issuance with its financing needs and market conditions, although the company will not receive proceeds from borrowed share sales until settlement of the corresponding forward contracts, and it retains the option of alternative cash or net share settlement mechanisms that could affect future cash flows and share count.

The most recent analyst rating on (REG) stock is a Buy with a $86.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Regency Centers stock, see the REG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Regency Centers Expands At-the-Market Equity Offering Program
Positive
Feb 17, 2026

On February 17, 2026, Regency Centers Corporation expanded its existing at-the-market equity offering program by adding RBC Capital Markets and Royal Bank of Canada as additional sales agents, forward sellers, and forward purchasers for the issuance and sale of up to $500 million of its common stock. The new agreements allow Regency to utilize forward sale structures in which shares may be borrowed and sold into the market now, with the company receiving cash proceeds upon later physical settlement, providing added flexibility to time equity issuance, manage funding needs, and potentially optimize its capital costs while capping total aggregate sales at $500 million.

Under the program, sales agents will place shares at prevailing market prices and receive commissions capped at 2.0% of gross sales, while forward sellers receive similar economics through a reduced initial forward sale price on borrowed shares. Although Regency will not initially receive proceeds from the sale of borrowed shares by forward sellers, the structure broadens the company’s toolkit for incremental equity financing, which may influence its leverage profile, support future investment activity, and affect existing shareholders depending on the scale and timing of eventual share issuance.

The most recent analyst rating on (REG) stock is a Buy with a $86.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Regency Centers stock, see the REG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Regency Centers announces retirement of long-serving board director
Neutral
Feb 6, 2026

On February 4, 2026, Regency Centers Corporation announced that long-serving director C. Ronald Blankenship will retire from its Board of Directors at the expiration of his current term, immediately following the company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The company emphasized that Blankenship’s decision, after 25 years of service and leadership on the Board, did not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies or practices, and publicly expressed deep appreciation for his longstanding contributions and guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (REG) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Regency Centers stock, see the REG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Regency Centers posts strong 2025 results, boosts dividend
Positive
Feb 5, 2026

On February 5, 2026, Regency Centers reported strong financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, and issued initial 2026 earnings guidance. Net income attributable to common shareholders rose to $1.09 per diluted share in the fourth quarter from $0.46 a year earlier and to $2.82 per diluted share for 2025 from $2.11 in 2024, aided by a $72.2 million gain from a partial distribution-in-kind transaction. Nareit FFO grew to $1.17 per diluted share for the quarter and $4.64 for the year, while Core Operating Earnings reached $1.12 and $4.41 per diluted share, respectively, translating into full-year per-share growth of 7.9% for Nareit FFO and 6.8% for Core Operating Earnings. Operationally, Regency delivered Same Property NOI growth of 4.7% in the fourth quarter and 5.3% for the year, maintained a high 96.5% leased rate across its same-property portfolio, and executed 6.8 million square feet of comparable new and renewal leases in 2025 with robust double-digit cash and straight-line rent spreads, underscoring strong tenant demand. The company accelerated capital deployment, starting $318 million and completing $212 million of development and redevelopment projects in 2025, with $597 million of projects in process at a blended estimated 9% yield, and it reshaped its portfolio via joint venture property distributions, asset sales and targeted acquisitions, including $538 million of shopping center purchases and a post-year-end redevelopment acquisition on Long Island. With pro-rata net debt and preferred stock at 5.1x trailing operating EBITDAre, ample liquidity under its revolving credit facility, and a higher common dividend declared on February 4, 2026, Regency signaled confidence in its balance sheet strength and positioned itself for continued internal and external growth, reinforcing its competitive standing in the open-air shopping center sector and its ability to deliver long-term value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (REG) stock is a Buy with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Regency Centers stock, see the REG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Regency Centers Boosts Dividends After Strong 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 5, 2026

On February 5, 2026, Regency Centers reported that for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, net income attributable to common shareholders rose to $1.09 per diluted share from $0.46 a year earlier in the quarter and to $2.82 from $2.11 for the full year, supported by a $72.2 million gain from a partial distribution-in-kind transaction. The company delivered full-year Nareit FFO of $4.64 per diluted share, up 7.9%, and Core Operating Earnings of $4.41 per diluted share, up 6.8%, while Same Property NOI grew 4.7% in the fourth quarter and 5.3% for the year, occupancy remained high at 96.5% leased, and 6.8 million square feet of new and renewal leases were signed at double-digit cash rent spreads. Regency accelerated capital deployment in 2025 with $318 million of development and redevelopment starts and $212 million of completions, including several new grocery-anchored centers, executed a joint-venture property rebalancing and a Miami asset sale, maintained a conservative balance sheet with pro-rata net debt and preferred stock at 5.1x EBITDAre and $1.4 billion of revolver capacity, and on February 4, 2026, its board approved higher common and preferred dividends, underscoring confidence in the company’s growth trajectory and shareholder return profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (REG) stock is a Buy with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Regency Centers stock, see the REG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Regency Centers Releases Updated Investor Presentation
Neutral
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Regency Centers Corporation released an updated investor presentation to be used at various conferences and meetings. This presentation is available on their website, providing stakeholders with insights into Regency’s current operations and strategic positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (REG) stock is a Buy with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Regency Centers stock, see the REG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Regency Centers Releases Updated Investor Presentation
Neutral
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Regency Centers Corporation released an updated investor presentation for use at upcoming conferences and meetings. This presentation, available on their investor relations website, aims to provide stakeholders with current insights into the company’s strategic direction and operational updates.

The most recent analyst rating on (REG) stock is a Buy with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Regency Centers stock, see the REG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Regency Centers Acquires Shopping Centers in California
Positive
Dec 4, 2025

On July 24, 2025, Regency Centers announced the acquisition of a portfolio of five shopping centers in Orange County, California, for $357 million. This strategic acquisition enhances Regency’s presence in a supply-constrained coastal market and aligns with its capital allocation objectives, including earnings accretion and growth. The transaction was funded through a combination of operating partnership units, assumed mortgage debt, and cash, and is expected to positively impact the company’s 2025 Core Operating Earnings per share.

The most recent analyst rating on (REG) stock is a Hold with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Regency Centers stock, see the REG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026