Simon Property (SPG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $59.96B
• Dividend Yield: 4.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 4.18%
• EPS Growth: -5.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,600
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 9.35
• Shares Outstanding: 324,945,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,688,162
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,560,936
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 14.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.82
• 1Y Price Target: $203.87
• Price Target Upside: 6.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.65
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.21B

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $234.00 ▲(22.31% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

Overall score reflects strong operating performance and cash flow supported by positive guidance and solid property-level metrics, plus attractive valuation (low P/E and ~4.2% yield). The main risk tempering the score is the leveraged capital structure and sensitivity to higher interest expense/tenant stress highlighted in the latest update.

Positive Factors

Improving cash generation

Material improvement in operating and free cash flow enhances Simon's ability to fund dividends, buybacks, redevelopments and debt service from internally generated cash. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports stable capital returns and reinvestment over the medium term.

Scale and leasing momentum

High occupancy, substantial leasing volume and consistent rent increases demonstrate pricing power and strong tenant demand across a diversified portfolio. Scale and market-leading locations create durable competitive advantages, stabilizing NOI and reducing volatility from any single tenant or market over time.

High‑yield development pipeline

A large, economically attractive pipeline (blended ~9% yield) with significant mixed‑use exposure can drive multi-year NOI and value creation if executed. Disciplined high-yield projects provide internal growth that complements leasing and acquisition activity, supporting sustainable FFO expansion over time.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

High absolute debt and leverage leave Simon exposed to rising interest rates and refinancing risk; higher interest expense can materially compress FFO and cash available for returns. Even with strong liquidity, the capital structure limits flexibility and heightens sensitivity to cyclical downturns in retail demand.

Tenant credit and tariff pressures

Tariff-driven cost pressures can impair smaller and mid-sized retailers' margins and solvency, raising vacancy and rent-collection risk. Elevated tenant credit stress could force concessions, longer downtime to re-lease space, and higher operating costs, structurally weakening NOI visibility over the medium term.

Redevelopment timing and integration drag

While redevelopment projects offer multi-year upside, the back‑end timing of benefits delays NOI realization and cash returns. Combined with occupancy drag from recent acquisitions noted by management, this means near-term earnings and cash-flow improvement may lag project investment, constraining immediate deleveraging.

Simon Property Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Simon is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company (Simon Property Group, NYSE: SPG). Our properties across North America, Europe and Asia provide community gathering places for millions of people every day and generate billions in annual sales.

How the Company Makes Money

Simon Property Group generates revenue primarily through leasing space to tenants in its shopping centers and malls. The company earns rental income from long-term leases with various tenants, which can include anchor stores, specialty retailers, and dining establishments. In addition to base rent, SPG often collects percentage rents, which are fees based on tenants' sales performance, providing an incentive for both parties to drive foot traffic and sales. The company also earns income from property management fees and development projects, as well as from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its portfolio. Key partnerships with major retail brands and ongoing investments in property development and renovations further contribute to SPG's earnings, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in the retail real estate market.

Simon Property Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating results and cash generation are strong (revenue growth re-accelerated in 2025; operating cash flow and free cash flow rose materially), but the balance sheet is a clear constraint with very high leverage and elevated debt-to-equity. The sharp 2025 profitability jump and limited 2025 cash-conversion ratio visibility add sustainability/quality risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has recovered steadily since 2020, with 2025 showing stronger growth (+3.4% vs ~0.1% in 2024). Profitability is very strong in the latest year, with a sharp step-up in net income (2025: $4.6B vs 2024: $2.4B) and very high reported profit margins. The main weakness is volatility versus earlier years (notably the 2020 downturn and the large year-to-year swing in 2025 profitability), which raises questions about sustainability of the latest margin level.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint: debt remains very large (~$29.9B in 2025) and debt-to-equity is elevated (2025: ~5.7x; prior years were even higher at ~7.7x–9.0x). Equity improved meaningfully in 2025 (to ~$5.2B from ~$2.9B in 2024), which helps reduce balance-sheet risk versus the prior year. Returns on equity are high, but with this level of leverage, the capital structure remains a notable risk factor if operating conditions soften or refinancing costs rise.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose to ~$4.1B in 2025 from ~$3.8B in 2024, and free cash flow increased sharply (2025: ~$4.1B vs 2024: ~$3.1B; +32.5% growth). A key weakness is data quality/consistency in 2025 cash-flow ratios (the provided coverage and free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratios show as 0.0), which prevents confirming how well earnings converted into cash in the latest period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.36B	5.96B	5.66B	5.29B	5.12B
Gross Profit	5.46B	4.92B	4.63B	4.29B	4.15B
EBITDA	7.86B	5.02B	4.89B	4.59B	4.85B
Net Income	4.61B	2.37B	2.28B	2.14B	2.25B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.61B	32.41B	34.28B	33.01B	33.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	823.15M	1.40B	2.17B	621.63M	533.94M
Total Debt	29.19B	24.78B	26.52B	25.46B	25.83B
Total Liabilities	33.90B	28.81B	30.60B	29.19B	29.38B
Stockholders Equity	5.21B	2.94B	3.02B	3.14B	3.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.57B	3.06B	3.14B	3.12B	3.11B
Operating Cash Flow	4.48B	3.81B	3.93B	3.77B	3.64B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.94B	1.41B	-1.36B	-626.56M	-552.76M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.11B	-4.99B	-2.02B	-3.05B	-3.56B

Simon Property Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 191.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 191.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 194.76, above the 50-day MA of 190.61, and above the 200-day MA of 175.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SPG.

Simon Property Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SPG	80 Outperform	$59.96B	13.08	146.33%	4.56%	4.18%	-5.05%
NNN	80 Outperform	$8.06B	19.50	8.88%	6.04%	4.53%	-3.46%
REG	75 Outperform	$13.69B	24.78	9.30%	4.15%	5.38%	3.13%
FRT	72 Outperform	$8.95B	21.05	12.74%	4.38%	6.05%	14.70%
KIM	71 Outperform	$15.06B	23.39	5.56%	5.02%	7.99%	55.05%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
O	65 Neutral	$56.83B	48.18	2.70%	5.64%	11.23%	1.82%

Simon Property Corporate Events

Simon Property Extends and Optimizes Major Credit Facilities

On March 5, 2026, Simon Property Group, L.P. amended and extended its $5.0 billion senior unsecured multi-currency revolving credit facility, maintaining initial borrowing capacity with the option to increase it to $6.0 billion and pushing the initial maturity to June 30, 2030, with two possible six‑month extensions. The facility, which can be drawn in several major currencies for general corporate purposes, includes ratings-based pricing, ongoing leverage and EBITDA coverage covenants, and standard acceleration provisions tied to bankruptcy and other events, reinforcing the company’s financial flexibility and liquidity profile.

On the same date, the company amended its $3.5 billion senior unsecured multi-currency supplemental revolving credit facility to align its applicable margins with the pricing under the main credit facility, harmonizing the cost structure across its key liquidity lines. The coordinated changes suggest a strategic effort to optimize borrowing terms and ensure consistent, large-scale access to multi-currency funding in support of Simon Property’s operations and capital needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPG) stock is a Buy with a $250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simon Property stock, see the SPG Stock Forecast page.

Simon Property Group Authorizes New $2 Billion Buyback

On February 5, 2026, Simon Property Group’s board authorized a new common stock repurchase program allowing the company to buy back up to $2.0 billion of its common shares through February 29, 2028, via open-market purchases or privately negotiated deals, at its discretion and subject to market conditions and legal requirements. The new authorization replaces a prior $2.0 billion program that had been set to expire on February 15, 2026, with about $1.7 billion still unused, signaling continued emphasis on capital return and balance-sheet flexibility but without committing the company to any specific repurchase volume or timing.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPG) stock is a Hold with a $189.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simon Property stock, see the SPG Stock Forecast page.

Simon Property Delivers Record 2025 Results, Hikes Dividend

On February 2, 2026, Simon Property Group reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighted by record Real Estate Funds From Operations (Real Estate FFO) of $4.8 billion and a sharp rise in net income attributable to common stockholders to $4.6 billion, or $14.17 per diluted share, from $2.4 billion in 2024. Fourth-quarter net income surged to $3.0 billion, largely driven by a $2.89 billion non-cash gain tied to the acquisition of the remaining interest in Taubman Realty Group, while full-year Real Estate FFO per share rose 4.0% and domestic and portfolio Net Operating Income increased 4.4% and 4.7%, respectively. Operational metrics across U.S. malls and Premium Outlets remained robust, with year-end 2025 occupancy essentially stable at 96.4%, base minimum rent per square foot up 4.7% to $60.97, and retailer sales per square foot climbing 8.1% to $799, underscoring continued tenant demand and pricing power. The company executed over 17 million square feet of leases, opened a new Premium Outlet in Indonesia, completed 23 major redevelopment projects, and acquired $2 billion of high-quality retail properties, reinforcing its scale and positioning in the retail real estate sector. Simon was active in capital markets, issuing $1.5 billion in senior notes and completing about $7.0 billion in secured loans, ending 2025 with approximately $9.1 billion of liquidity, and subsequently refinancing $800 million of maturing notes, steps that support balance sheet flexibility and funding capacity for ongoing investment. Reflecting confidence in its cash flow profile, the board raised the quarterly common dividend for the first quarter of 2026 by 4.8% year over year to $2.20 per share, signaling continued emphasis on returning capital to shareholders alongside disciplined, value-focused growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPG) stock is a Buy with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simon Property stock, see the SPG Stock Forecast page.