SmartRent (SMRT) AI Stock Analysis

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SmartRent

(NYSE:SMRT)

Select Model

Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:54Neutral

Price Target:

$2.00

▲(21.21% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26

The score is held back mainly by weak financial performance (persistent losses and inconsistent cash generation) and limited valuation support due to negative earnings. Offsetting factors include a relatively strong balance sheet and a more constructive earnings-call outlook pointing to margin/expense improvements and targeted profitability and free-cash-flow positivity in 2026, while technicals are modestly supportive but not strongly bullish.

Positive Factors

Recurring SaaS / ARR Growth

SmartRent's ARR expansion and double-digit SaaS revenue growth signal a deeper recurring revenue base that is structurally more predictable than one‑time hardware sales. A larger ARR supports durable revenue visibility, higher lifetime value per customer, and revenue resilience as device deployments scale over multiple years.

Improving Gross Margins

Sustained gross margin expansion — especially very high hosted services margins — provides structural operating leverage. Higher gross margins reduce the revenue needed to achieve profitability, improve cash conversion potential, and make scaled software and services economics more durable as the installed base and attach rates rise.

Strong Liquidity & Low Leverage

A sizable cash balance and undrawn credit capacity with minimal debt provide runway to fund sales investments and unit deployments without immediate refinancing. This balance sheet flexibility reduces short‑term solvency risk, supports strategic execution of Vision 2028, and buffers the company while margins and ARR scale.

Negative Factors

Persistent Net Losses & Negative Margins

Ongoing large net losses and deeply negative margins are a structural drag: they erode equity, limit internal funding for growth, and increase reliance on external capital unless profitability sustainably improves. Turning consistent losses into durable profits is required to justify scaling and to protect long‑term shareholder value.

Weak & Volatile Cash Generation

Inconsistent operating and free cash flow undermines long‑term financial resilience. Volatile cash generation hampers the company's ability to self‑fund deployments and sales expansion, increases execution risk for the ambitious unit targets, and raises the probability of future external financing if cash flow recovery is delayed.

Revenue Mix Pressure & Deployment Reliance

A revenue decline driven by reduced bulk hardware deals and the shrinking hub amortization tailwind shifts pressure onto recurring SaaS growth. Reliance on existing customers for near-term unit deployments concentrates execution risk: slower rollout or lower attach rates could impede the sustained ARR and unit growth needed to replace non‑recurring revenue.

SmartRent (SMRT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$317.17M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.15M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.51

Revenue Growth-24.30%

EPS Growth-181.62%

CountryUS

Employees494

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength88

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.02

Shares Outstanding192,223,770

10 Day Avg. Volume1,073,342

30 Day Avg. Volume1,150,705

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.07

Price to Book (P/B)1.65

Price to Sales (P/S)2.52

P/FCF Ratio-15.25

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.71

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.47

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.49

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.60

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.00

Price Target Upside21.21% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering2

EPS Forecast (FY)-0.07

Revenue Forecast (FY)$166.47M

SmartRent Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSmartRent, Inc., an enterprise software company, provides an integrated smart home operating system to residential property owners and operators, homebuilders, institutional home buyers, developers, and residents in the United States. Its solution is designed to provide communities with visibility and control their assets while delivering cost savings and additional revenue opportunities through all-in-one home control offerings for residents. The company's products and solutions include smart apartments and homes, access control for buildings, common areas, rental units, asset protection and monitoring, parking management, self-guided tours, and community and resident Wi-Fi. It also offers professional services to customers, which include training, installation, and support services. SmartRent, Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

How the Company Makes MoneySmartRent generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its software platform, which property managers pay to access its suite of smart home automation services. Additionally, the company earns money from the sale of hardware products, such as smart locks and sensors, which are installed in residential units. Significant partnerships with property management firms and real estate developers also contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations often lead to bulk purchases and long-term contracts. Furthermore, SmartRent may benefit from recurring revenue through maintenance and support services, as well as potential upselling of additional smart home devices and features to existing clients.

SmartRent Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down SmartRent's income across different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.

Chart InsightsSmartRent's shift away from bulk hardware sales has led to a notable decline in hardware revenue, impacting overall revenue. However, the company is strategically pivoting towards hosted services, which now make up nearly half of total revenue and continue to grow steadily. This transition is supported by strong SaaS revenue growth and high customer retention, positioning SmartRent for long-term stability despite short-term financial challenges. The company's robust cash position and focus on AI integration and product innovation further underscore its commitment to future growth.

Data provided by:

The Fly

SmartRent Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call presented a constructive operational turnaround: Q4 delivered the first YoY revenue growth in seven quarters, meaningful gross margin expansion, reduced operating expenses and a move to positive adjusted EBITDA on a run-rate basis, supported by a strong liquidity position (~$105M cash). Management laid out a clear Vision 2028 with aggressive scale targets (1M installed units in 4–5 quarters; >1.2M by 2028) and expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow positivity. Key risks include a full-year revenue decline in 2025 (-13%), a larger full-year adjusted EBITDA loss, decreasing non-cash hub amortization (which changes revenue mix), deployment timing variability, and some pressure in units-booked ARPU in the quarter. Overall, the operational improvements, cost savings (> $30M annualized), strong cash position, and trajectory toward profitable growth outweigh the near-term mix and timing headwinds.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Return to Year-over-Year Revenue Growth

Q4 total revenue of $36.5M, up ~3% YoY (first YoY growth in seven quarters). Core revenue (total less hub amortization) grew ~12% YoY in Q4 to ~$33.8M, indicating underlying business momentum.

SaaS and ARR Expansion

Full-year SaaS revenue grew ~12% to $57.8M; Q4 SaaS revenue was $15.4M (CEO noted SaaS revenue growth of 13%). ARR grew to just under $62M, representing ~40% of total revenue, and management expects double-digit ARR growth in 2026.

Margin Improvement

Total gross margin expanded ~990 basis points YoY to 38.6% in Q4. Hosted services gross margin rose to 75.7%. Professional services reached approximately breakeven gross margin in Q4 (second consecutive quarter of profitability).

Operating Expense Reductions and Cost Savings

Operating expenses were down 22% YoY in Q4 (Q4 op ex $18M) and down 13% for the full year ($88.9M), following a cost-structure reset that yielded annualized cost savings of over $30M.

Improved Profitability Run-Rates

Adjusted EBITDA improved 103% in Q4 to a small profit of approximately $200K (from a $7.4M loss prior-year quarter). Q4 net loss improved to $3.2M from $11.4M YoY; full-year net loss narrowed to $0.6M from $33.6M the prior year.

Strong Liquidity Position and Cash Flow Progress

Ended the year with approximately $105M in cash and no outstanding borrowings under the $75M credit facility; cash increased by $4.5M in Q4 and the company achieved cash flow neutrality on a run-rate basis exiting the year and expects to be cash flow positive on an annual basis despite seasonality.

Clear Strategic Roadmap and Scale Targets (Vision 2028)

Management announced Vision 2028: targeting a march to 1,000,000 installed units in 4–5 quarters and a double-digit CAGR in installed base through 2028 to exceed ~1.2M units by end of 2028; current footprint includes ~890,000 rental units, maintenance/leasing solutions supporting >1.2M units, and >3,000,000 connected devices.

Hardware and Core Revenue Momentum

Q4 hardware revenue increased 20% YoY to $12.5M. Management highlighted that expanded hardware footprint will drive higher software attach and higher-margin software revenue over time.

Negative Updates

Full-Year Revenue Decline

Full-year total revenue was $152.3M, down ~13% YoY, largely driven by the company's transition away from bulk hardware transactions and timing differences in customer implementations.

Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Loss

Despite Q4 adjusted EBITDA improvement, full-year adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $16.4M compared to a $9.9M loss in 2024, reflecting remaining operating profitability headwinds for the year.

Decreasing Hub Amortization and Revenue Mix Pressure

Non-cash hub amortization declined to $2.7M in Q4 (from $5.2M prior-year quarter) and totaled $15.4M for the year (vs. $21.6M prior year); hub amortization is expected to be < $5M in 2026, reducing a non-cash revenue component and requiring recurring growth to replace that tailwind.

Deployment Timing Variability and Macro Uncertainty

Management flagged deployment timing variability and macroeconomic uncertainty as risks that require continued discipline; these factors could impact the pace of unit deployments and revenue recognition.

Mixed ARPU Signals in New Bookings

SaaS ARPU rose modestly (Q4 SaaS ARPU $5.83, +3% YoY; full-year +1%), but units-booked SaaS ARPU in Q4 fell to $7.64 from $8.49 YoY, indicating near-term pricing/product mix pressure in new bookings despite higher full-year units-booked ARPU.

Comparability Impacted by Non-Recurring Charges

Financial comparability is affected by significant one-time items (management referenced a $24.9M goodwill impairment), which complicates year-over-year assessment of operating performance.

Reliance on Existing Customers for Near-Term Unit Growth

Management expects most near-term unit deployment growth to come from the existing ~600 customers, indicating a need to execute on sales expansion plans and mid-market penetration to sustain growth targets.

Company Guidance

Management guided that 2026 will be a return to profitable, growth‑oriented performance driven by double‑digit ARR growth, with the company targeting adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow positivity on a full‑year basis and a march to 1,000,000 installed units within four‑to‑five quarters as part of a double‑digit CAGR to >1.2M installed units by exit‑2028. Key metrics cited include ARR just under $62M (≈40% of revenue), Q4 total revenue $36.5M (+3% YoY) and FY revenue $152.3M (‑13% YoY), Q4 SaaS $15.4M / FY SaaS $57.8M (+12% YoY), core Q4 revenue ~$33.8M (+~12% YoY), hub amortization FY25 $15.4M (expected < $5M in 2026), Q4 gross margin 38.6% (+990 bps YoY) with hosted services margin 75.7%, Q4 OpEx $18M (‑22% YoY) and FY OpEx $88.9M (‑13% YoY), Q4 adjusted EBITDA ≈+$0.2M (improved 103%), Q4 net loss $3.2M (FY net loss $0.6M, including a $24.9M goodwill charge), cash ~$105M with no debt under the $75M facility, annualized cost savings >$30M, Q4 SaaS ARPU $5.83 (+3% YoY) and units‑booked ARPU trends disclosed, while management is roughly doubling the sales organization and expects to leverage existing ~600 customers and a deployed footprint of ~890,000 rental units (maintenance/leasing reach >1.2M units, >3M IoT devices across ~3,500 properties) to drive the plan.

SmartRent Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue scaled materially over the long run but weakened in 2024–2025, while profitability remains the primary issue with persistent net losses and deeply negative margins. The balance sheet is a relative strength with low leverage and meaningful equity, but cash flow consistency is weak with recent periods indicating renewed burn/instability.

Income Statement

Negative

Revenue has grown materially over the long run (from ~$53M in 2020 to ~$152M in 2025), but the trajectory has weakened recently with a decline in 2024 followed by another step-down in 2025. Profitability remains the key issue: net losses persist every year, and margins are still deeply negative (2025 net margin around -40%), with operating results worsening versus 2024. Gross margin improved dramatically versus the early years and remains positive (~33% in 2025), but it has softened from 2024 and is not yet sufficient to offset operating costs.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is relatively conservative with very low leverage across the period, including no debt reported in 2025 and minimal debt in 2024–2023 (low debt vs. equity). Equity remains sizable (~$232M in 2025), providing some financial flexibility. The main weakness is ongoing losses translating into consistently negative returns on equity and a declining equity base over time, which signals continued value erosion if profitability doesn’t improve.

Cash Flow

Very Negative

Cash generation is weak and volatile. Operating and free cash flow were positive in 2023 but turned negative again in 2024, and 2025 shows zero reported operating and free cash flow with a sharp reported decline in free cash flow growth, suggesting deterioration or data limitations. Overall, cash flow has not consistently supported the business, and recent years indicate renewed cash burn pressure alongside continued net losses.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	152.33M	174.88M	236.84M	167.82M	110.64M
Gross Profit	49.87M	60.34M	49.53M	1.35M	-10.07M
EBITDA	-29.44M	-35.28M	-37.63M	-99.99M	-71.19M
Net Income	-60.56M	-33.64M	-34.59M	-96.32M	-71.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	320.93M	420.18M	509.76M	560.85M	579.68M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	104.55M	142.48M	215.21M	210.41M	430.84M
Total Debt	7.41M	7.02M	1.31M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	88.79M	130.74M	167.31M	196.65M	130.18M
Stockholders Equity	232.14M	289.44M	342.45M	364.20M	449.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-25.13M	-40.51M	2.21M	-82.15M	-71.85M
Operating Cash Flow	-21.57M	-32.91M	5.98M	-77.83M	-70.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.63M	-7.60M	-6.02M	-133.99M	-9.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.44M	-32.96M	-1.91M	-2.80M	473.93M

SmartRent Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price1.65

Price Trends

50DMA

1.73

Negative

100DMA

1.70

Negative

200DMA

1.46

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.02

Negative

RSI

46.32

Neutral

STOCH

75.88

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMRT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.67, below the 50-day MA of 1.73, and above the 200-day MA of 1.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMRT.

SmartRent Risk Analysis

SmartRent disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SmartRent reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

SmartRent Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ONTF	66 Neutral	$342.51M	-11.71	-20.20%	―	-6.23%	28.57%
MKTW	62 Neutral	$232.42M	6.24	―	14.78%	-19.17%	308.81%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PRCH	56 Neutral	$761.09M	61.80	-13.21%	―	-2.13%	―
SMRT	54 Neutral	$317.17M	-6.33	-25.34%	―	-24.30%	-181.62%
EB	49 Neutral	$452.96M	―	-5.85%	―	-11.54%	-54.32%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SMRT

SmartRent

1.65

0.47

39.83%

Eventbrite

4.51

2.24

98.68%

PRCH

Porch Group

7.17

1.23

20.71%

MKTW

MarketWise

14.50

3.31

29.58%

ONTF

ON24

8.03

2.19

37.50%

SmartRent Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

SmartRent Returns to Growth With First Positive EBITDA

Positive

Mar 4, 2026

On March 4, 2026, SmartRent reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting a return to year-over-year quarterly revenue growth and its first positive adjusted EBITDA in seven quarters. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 3% to $36.5 million, ARR climbed 13% to $61.6 million, net loss narrowed to $3.2 million, and cash increased by $4.5 million, supporting a liquidity position that includes $104.6 million of cash and an undrawn $75 million credit facility.

For 2025 overall, revenue fell 13% to $152.3 million, largely due to the company’s strategic move away from bulk hardware deals that misaligned with customer rollout schedules, contributing to a wider net loss of $60.6 million after a goodwill impairment. Management emphasized stronger SaaS momentum, higher-margin recurring revenue and expanding gross margins, citing a 10% increase in deployed units to roughly 891,000 and improved operating discipline as key to strengthening SmartRent’s competitive position and setting the stage for a focus on profitable growth in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMRT) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SmartRent stock, see the SMRT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 05, 2026