Vivid Seats (SEAT)
NASDAQ:SEAT
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Vivid Seats
(NASDAQ:SEAT)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▲(10.46% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/09/26
SEAT’s score is held down primarily by deteriorating fundamentals—sharp TTM losses, negative equity, and negative operating/free cash flow. Partially offsetting this are improving near-term technicals and a cautiously positive earnings outlook driven by reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA guidance, significant cost savings, and early traction in the app, though Q4 volume declines remain a key risk.
Positive Factors
High Gross Margins
High gross margins in the low-70%s indicate attractive unit economics on each transaction. If management preserves take rates and controls operating spend, these margins support scalable profitability as volumes recover, underpinning durable cash generation potential.
Negative Factors
Negative Cash Flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow means the business is consuming cash rather than funding itself. This increases reliance on external financing, raises refinancing and liquidity risk, and limits flexibility for product investment until sustained EBITDA and FCF turn positive.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Gross Margins
High gross margins in the low-70%s indicate attractive unit economics on each transaction. If management preserves take rates and controls operating spend, these margins support scalable profitability as volumes recover, underpinning durable cash generation potential.
Read all positive factors
Vivid Seats (SEAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$79.88M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)104.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth-16.83%
EPS Growth-485.31%
CountryUS
Employees768
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-37.14
Shares Outstanding10,765,756
10 Day Avg. Volume107,197
30 Day Avg. Volume104,514
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.09
P/FCF Ratio-0.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue-0.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-0.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.78Price Target Upside29.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$507.19M
Vivid Seats Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vivid Seats Inc. operates as an online secondary marketplace for tickets in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Marketplace and Resale. The Marketplace segment acts as an intermediary between event ticket buyers and...
How the Company Makes Money
Vivid Seats primarily makes money by earning marketplace economics on ticket transactions it facilitates. Its core revenue stream is commissions/fees collected when a ticket is sold through its platform—generally consisting of amounts charged to b...
Vivid Seats Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of severe near-term financial headwinds and clear operational progress. Q4 results were notably weak (large declines in GOV, revenue and orders, and only $1M adjusted EBITDA), driven by industry softness, a difficult comp and the loss of a large private label customer. Offsetting these negatives, management achieved the enlarged $60M cost-savings target, completed corporate simplification, reported strong early momentum in the app (app GOV +20% YoY; app GOV share +500 bps), launched AI integrations, and reiterated FY2026 guidance with improved Q1 EBITDA expectations — signaling a path to recovering volumes and improved profitability in H2 2026. Overall, the call conveyed cautious optimism but acknowledged material recent declines that the company must offset through execution and cost improvements.Positive Updates
Achieved Targeted Cost Reductions
Expanded cost reduction program and achieved $60 million of annualized savings (raised from an initial $25 million target), with reductions across marketing, G&A and stock-based compensation; partial benefit realized in Q4 and full benefit expected starting Q1 2026.
Negative Updates
Significant Year-Over-Year GOV Decline in Q4
Q4 2025 marketplace GOV was $581 million, down from $994 million in Q4 2024 — a decline of approximately 41.6% year-over-year, driven by softer industry volumes, less content on sale and a difficult World Series comp.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Achieved Targeted Cost Reductions
Expanded cost reduction program and achieved $60 million of annualized savings (raised from an initial $25 million target), with reductions across marketing, G&A and stock-based compensation; partial benefit realized in Q4 and full benefit expected starting Q1 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of marketplace GOV of $2.2–$2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $30–$40 million, and provided Q1 2026 guidance of GOV $570–$620 million, adjusted EBITDA $8–$10 million and an expected cash balance of $125–$135 million at quarter end. They said near‑term marketplace take rates should stay in the ~16% range, highlighted that app GOV is up >20% year‑over‑year through the first two months of 2026 and app share of GOV has increased by >500 basis points since the Q3 app enhancements, and disclosed they achieved $60 million of annualized cost savings (up from an initial $25 million target) with full benefit starting in Q1. For context Q4 2025 actuals were $581 million GOV, $127 million revenue, a 16.8% take rate, $1 million adjusted EBITDA, $103 million cash, $390 million debt (net debt $287 million), total marketplace orders down 32% YoY and average order size $329; management expects FY‑2026 modest industry growth, CapEx/software of ~ $15 million, and that $35–$40 million of EBITDA (pre working capital) would be needed to be cash‑flow neutral, with the company projecting to be modestly cash generative in 2026.Vivid Seats Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 570.78M | 775.59M | 712.88M | 600.27M | 443.04M |
| Gross Profit | 347.95M | 573.73M | 530.70M | 459.77M | 352.42M |
| EBITDA | 9.11M | 91.83M | 102.44M | 91.95M | 41.68M |
| Net Income | -429.30M | 9.43M | 74.54M | 28.66M | -16.12M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 636.87M | 1.64B | 1.55B | 1.15B | 1.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 102.70M | 243.48M | 125.48M | 251.54M | 489.53M |
| Total Debt | 20.38M | 407.64M | 284.78M | 282.56M | 460.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 722.00M | 1.02B | 963.34M | 671.27M | 983.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | -85.13M | 261.11M | 105.02M | -382.70M | -860.68M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -93.76M | 49.70M | 134.54M | -1.03M | 166.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -91.60M | 53.92M | 147.32M | 14.38M | 175.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.17M | -26.74M | -225.64M | -15.41M | -9.35M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -29.37M | 86.08M | -43.43M | -236.48M | 38.03M |
Vivid Seats Technical Analysis
Positive
6.79
Price Trends
6.42
Positive
6.75
Positive
13.19
Negative
Market Momentum
0.18
Negative
60.77
Neutral
61.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.25, above the 50-day MA of 6.42, and below the 200-day MA of 13.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SEAT.
Vivid Seats Risk Analysis
Vivid Seats disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vivid Seats reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vivid Seats Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $557.38M | 9.83 | 54.21% | ― | 57.83% | 293.63% | |
64 Neutral | $1.38B | 15.50 | 5.63% | ― | 17.38% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $382.52M | 34.17 | 5.27% | ― | 12.68% | 133.00% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
49 Neutral | $79.88M | -0.12 | -51.54% | ― | -16.83% | -485.31% | |
| ― | $80.88M | -1.26 | 51.05% | ― | ― | ― |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SEAT
Vivid Seats
7.42
-40.98
-84.67%
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ILLR
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Vivid Seats Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Vivid Seats Faces Steep Revenue Declines Amid Event Weakness
Negative
Mar 12, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Vivid Seats’ board determined that directors Todd Boehly, Jane DeFlorio, Craig Dixon, Julie Masino, and Adam Stewart qualify as independent, restoring the company’s compliance with Nasdaq’s requirement that a ma...
Executive/Board Changes
Vivid Seats Appoints Joseph Thomas as New CFO
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
On January 14, 2026, Vivid Seats Inc.’s board appointed Joseph Thomas as chief financial officer, with his employment commencing on January 19, 2026, succeeding interim CFO Edward Pickus, who continues as chief accounting officer. Thomas, 41...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.