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Vivid Seats (SEAT)
NASDAQ:SEAT
US Market

Vivid Seats (SEAT) AI Stock Analysis

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Vivid Seats

(NASDAQ:SEAT)

Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(5.82%Upside)
The overall stock score reflects a combination of financial performance challenges, bearish technical indicators, and a negative valuation outlook. While there are strategic initiatives in place, the current financial and market conditions pose significant risks.
Positive Factors
Financial Stability
Vivid Seats has over $200 million in cash and is actively repurchasing shares, which may support its stock price.
International Expansion
The company is in the early innings for international expansion, which is expected to positively impact future revenue growth.
Market Share
Important differentiators such as loyalty, SkyBox, and Game Center remain intact and should enable the company to take market share.
Negative Factors
Competition
Vivid Seats experienced a 20% decline in market share, likely due to increased competition from Stubhub.
Financial Performance
Vivid Seats reported its first miss since the company de-SPACed in October 2021.
Macroeconomic Challenges
Management suspended guidance due to macroeconomic and industry-specific challenges.

Vivid Seats (SEAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vivid Seats Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVivid Seats Inc. operates as an online secondary marketplace for tickets in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Marketplace and Resale. The Marketplace segment acts as an intermediary between event ticket buyers and sellers; processes ticket sales on its website and mobile applications through its distribution partners; and sells tickets for live sports, concerts, and theater shows, and other live events. This segment offers Skybox, a proprietary enterprise resource planning tool that helps ticket sellers manage ticket inventories, adjust pricing, and fulfill orders across multiple ticket resale marketplaces. The Resale segment acquires tickets to resell on secondary ticket marketplaces; and provides internal research and development support for Skybox and to deliver seller software and tools. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyVivid Seats generates revenue primarily through service fees charged on ticket sales. When a ticket is sold on its platform, the company takes a percentage of the transaction as a service fee, which is added on top of the ticket price. This fee structure applies to both buyers and sellers, ensuring revenue from both ends of the transaction. Additionally, Vivid Seats may earn through partnerships with event organizers and venues, offering promotional deals or exclusive ticketing rights. The company's success is further enhanced by its strong brand presence and its reputation for reliability and customer service in the competitive ticket marketplace industry.

Vivid Seats Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -32.26%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted strategic partnerships, technological investments, and international expansion. However, significant challenges include a decline in marketplace GOV and revenues, suspension of financial guidance, negative cash generation, and competitive pressures in marketing channels. These factors contribute to a cautious outlook despite some positive strategic developments.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Repeat Customer Engagement
Repeat rate for new customers who interacted with Game Center was 55% higher, and GOV was 35% higher for these customers.
Key Strategic Partnerships
Partnership with United Airlines to allow customers to earn miles for purchasing tickets through Vivid Seats, expected to contribute in the second half of 2025.
Product and Technology Investments
Focus on releasing fan-focused experiential enhancements in the app to optimize discoverability and improve navigation and personalization.
International Expansion Efforts
Continued development of the internationalization of the platform following the European launch in the fourth quarter.
Negative Updates
Decline in Marketplace GOV and Revenues
Marketplace GOV was down 20% year-over-year, and revenues decreased by 14% compared to Q1 2024.
Suspension of Financial Guidance
Suspended guidance for 2025 due to competitive intensity, economic variability, and atypical changes across the marketing landscape.
Negative Cash Generation
Negative cash generation due to seasonal items and continued pressure on working capital from organic volume declines.
Challenges in Performance Marketing
Unexpected changes in the Google channel and continued competitive intensity in performance marketing channels.
Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA was $22 million, down from $39 million in the prior year, due to lower volume and higher marketing expenses.
Company Guidance
During the Vivid Seats First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, management provided detailed guidance and insights into their performance and strategic priorities. The company reported a marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) of $820 million, revenues of $164 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of $22 million, noting that these figures represented a challenging year-over-year comparison with a 20% decline in GOV and a 14% drop in revenues. Adjusted EBITDA also decreased from $39 million in the prior year. Management emphasized their focus on strategic investments in marketing and technology to drive long-term growth, highlighting enhancements to their app aimed at improving customer experience and engagement. They also mentioned ongoing investments in their Game Center, which positively influenced repeat rates and GOV for new customers. On the international front, Vivid Seats is expanding their Total Addressable Market (TAM) through internationalization efforts following their European launch. However, they suspended guidance for the remainder of 2025 due to economic uncertainties, competitive pressures, and variability in the performance marketing landscape, noting a particularly broad range of potential outcomes. The call also addressed changes in performance marketing dynamics and highlighted a new partnership with United Airlines as a strategic advantage expected to contribute in the second half of 2025.

Vivid Seats Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vivid Seats has shown strong historical growth, but recent figures reveal challenges in maintaining profitability with negative net income and cash flow issues. The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage with potential concerns over debt levels.
Income Statement
68
Positive
Over the years, Vivid Seats has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly from 2020 to 2023. However, recent TTM data shows a slight decline in revenue and profitability, with negative net income indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. Gross profit margins remain healthy, though net profit margins have fluctuated, reflecting operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderate level of debt compared to equity, with a debt-to-equity ratio indicating potential leverage concerns. The return on equity is inconsistent due to fluctuating net income. The equity ratio is on the lower side, reflecting a higher reliance on liabilities.
Cash Flow
62
Positive
Vivid Seats has faced volatility in cash flows, with a recent decline in free cash flow and negative operating cash flow in the TTM period. While there was positive cash flow growth between 2022 and 2023, recent figures suggest cash management and profitability challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue748.76M775.59M712.88M600.27M443.04M35.08M
Gross Profit541.46M573.73M530.70M459.77M352.42M10.39M
EBITDA84.92M91.83M102.44M91.95M41.68M-668.46M
Net Income-2.59M9.43M74.54M70.78M-19.13M-831.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.61B1.64B1.55B1.15B1.41B1.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments199.47M243.48M125.48M251.54M489.53M285.34M
Total Debt407.95M407.64M284.78M282.56M460.13M877.32M
Total Liabilities999.20M1.02B963.34M671.27M983.46M1.43B
Stockholders Equity380.71M261.11M105.02M-382.70M-860.68M-271.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-26.62M49.70M134.54M-1.03M210.28M-41.50M
Operating Cash Flow-10.53M53.92M147.32M14.38M219.93M-33.89M
Investing Cash Flow-29.03M-26.74M-225.64M-15.41M-9.35M-7.61M
Financing Cash Flow79.12M86.08M-43.43M-236.48M-6.11M245.54M

Vivid Seats Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.89
Price Trends
50DMA
1.98
Negative
100DMA
2.69
Negative
200DMA
3.31
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Negative
RSI
53.01
Neutral
STOCH
59.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.77, below the 50-day MA of 1.98, and below the 200-day MA of 3.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SEAT.

Vivid Seats Risk Analysis

Vivid Seats disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vivid Seats reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vivid Seats Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$1.65B25.069.18%3.84%26.71%-23.67%
71
Outperform
$2.25B16.9219.74%5.93%29.17%
66
Neutral
£1.91B10.33-3.58%3.23%3.34%-85.67%
56
Neutral
$389.48M25.25-1.00%0.82%-102.72%
56
Neutral
$1.37B35.54-90.27%-5.76%21.27%
51
Neutral
$604.49M-18.77%12.01%35.71%
48
Neutral
$561.90M-5.28%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SEAT
Vivid Seats
1.89
-3.48
-64.80%
GRPN
Groupon
35.06
19.82
130.05%
YELP
Yelp
35.04
-1.11
-3.07%
OPRA
Opera
20.08
7.40
58.36%
KIND
Nextdoor Holdings
1.59
-0.98
-38.13%
TTGT
TechTarget, Inc.
6.92
-17.55
-71.72%

Vivid Seats Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vivid Seats Elects Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

At Vivid Seats Inc.’s 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 3, 2025, key decisions included the election of Class I directors and the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The election saw Stanley Chia, Jane DeFlorio, and David Donnini elected as directors, while the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP was overwhelmingly approved, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s governance and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEAT) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vivid Seats stock, see the SEAT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025