Vivid Seats (SEAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $94.63M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 123.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: -16.83%
• EPS Growth: -485.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 768
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -1.84
• Shares Outstanding: 10,725,316
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 73,139
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 123,107
• PEG Ratio: -0.75
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -0.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -0.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -0.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.11
• 1Y Price Target: $11.44
• Price Target Upside: 66.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): -4.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $498.52M

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▼(-12.92% Downside)

SEAT scores low primarily due to deteriorating fundamentals (declining revenue, large losses, and weakening free cash flow) and a strongly bearish technical trend with weak momentum. Valuation offers limited clarity because earnings are negative and there is no dividend support, while the earnings call provides some offset via cost-cutting plans and 2026 outlook but is tempered by steep recent declines in marketplace metrics.

Positive Factors

High gross profit margin

A 71.45% gross margin from the digital marketplace model provides a durable buffer to absorb marketing and fulfillment costs. This structural margin advantage supports potential path-to-profitability if order volumes stabilize, enabling reinvestment in product and customer retention.

Low financial leverage

Very low debt (D/E ~0.08) gives the company financial flexibility to fund restructuring, product investment, and temporary revenue shortfalls without heavy interest burdens. This reduces insolvency risk and preserves strategic optionality over the medium term.

Corporate simplification & tax savings

Eliminating the TRA and simplifying capital structure yields up to $180M lifetime tax savings and lower reporting/compliance costs. Those permanent cashflow improvements materially bolster free cash flow conversion and funding for product or loyalty investments over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Declining GOV and revenue

A 29% GOV decline and 27% revenue drop indicate structural demand or distribution problems, amplified by partner losses. Sustained lower order volumes weaken network effects, pressure unit economics, and limit the firm's ability to scale fixed costs back into profitable growth.

Weak cash generation trends

A ~-33% free cash flow deterioration and negative operating cash flow-to-income signal persistent cash-generation shortfalls. This constrains capacity to invest in platform improvements or marketing, raising reliance on cost cuts and structural tax savings to restore durable cashflow.

Private-label partner loss & lower take rates

Losing a large private-label partner and a decline in take rates to 17.0% reduce per-order economics and revenue diversification. These structural hits increase volatility of marketplace margins and complicate sustainable profitability, even after fixed-cost reductions.

Vivid Seats Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vivid Seats Inc. operates as an online secondary marketplace for tickets in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Marketplace and Resale. The Marketplace segment acts as an intermediary between event ticket buyers and sellers; processes ticket sales on its website and mobile applications through its distribution partners; and sells tickets for live sports, concerts, and theater shows, and other live events. This segment offers Skybox, a proprietary enterprise resource planning tool that helps ticket sellers manage ticket inventories, adjust pricing, and fulfill orders across multiple ticket resale marketplaces. The Resale segment acquires tickets to resell on secondary ticket marketplaces; and provides internal research and development support for Skybox and to deliver seller software and tools. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Vivid Seats generates revenue primarily through the sale of tickets for live events. The company operates on a marketplace model, earning money through service fees charged to buyers on each ticket purchase, as well as commissions from sellers when tickets are sold. Additionally, Vivid Seats may partner with event organizers, venues, and brands for promotional collaborations, which can lead to increased ticket sales and enhanced visibility. The company also offers a loyalty program that encourages repeat customers, contributing further to its revenue streams. Overall, the combination of service fees, commissions, and strategic partnerships plays a pivotal role in Vivid Seats' financial performance.

Vivid Seats Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is weak: revenue is declining (TTM growth -7.24%) and profitability is poor with a deeply negative net margin (-25.82%). Leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity 0.08), but negative ROE (-58.77%) and weakening free cash flow growth (-32.71%) indicate ongoing operating and cash-generation challenges.

Income Statement

Vivid Seats shows a declining revenue trend with a negative revenue growth rate of -7.24% in the TTM period. Gross profit margin remains strong at 71.45%, but the company struggles with profitability as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The net profit margin has deteriorated to -25.82% in the TTM, reflecting significant challenges in managing costs and achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08 in the TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -58.77%, highlighting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 24.57%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a negative free cash flow growth rate of -32.71% in the TTM, pointing to cash management issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating operational challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 2.89, suggesting some ability to convert earnings into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	643.77M	775.59M	712.88M	600.27M	443.04M	35.08M
Gross Profit	460.00M	573.73M	530.70M	459.77M	352.42M	10.39M
EBITDA	-150.03M	91.83M	102.44M	91.95M	41.68M	-668.46M
Net Income	-155.03M	9.43M	74.54M	28.66M	-19.13M	-774.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.11B	1.64B	1.55B	1.15B	1.41B	1.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	145.11M	243.48M	125.48M	251.54M	489.53M	285.34M
Total Debt	21.03M	407.64M	284.78M	282.56M	460.13M	877.32M
Total Liabilities	771.58M	1.02B	963.34M	671.27M	983.46M	1.43B
Stockholders Equity	272.15M	261.11M	105.02M	-382.70M	-860.68M	-271.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-30.43M	49.70M	134.54M	-1.03M	166.14M	-41.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-5.61M	53.92M	147.32M	14.38M	175.79M	-33.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-25.17M	-26.74M	-225.64M	-15.41M	-9.35M	-7.61M
Financing Cash Flow	-31.27M	86.08M	-43.43M	-236.48M	38.03M	245.54M

Vivid Seats Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.82, below the 50-day MA of 7.65, and below the 200-day MA of 24.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SEAT.

Vivid Seats Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVER	77 Outperform	$903.93M	17.30	36.81%	―	57.83%	293.63%
FVRR	64 Neutral	$629.28M	28.27	6.18%	―	12.68%	133.00%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
TRVG	55 Neutral	$199.74M	72.80	1.22%	―	17.38%	―
TRUE	54 Neutral	$191.22M	-9.87	-15.37%	―	6.18%	28.04%
SEAT	46 Neutral	$94.63M	-0.28	-51.54%	―	-16.83%	-485.31%
ILLR	39 Underperform	$6.58M	―	―	―	―	―

Vivid Seats Corporate Events

Vivid Seats Faces Nasdaq Board Independence Compliance Challenge

On December 19, 2025, Martin Taylor resigned from the Board of Directors of Vivid Seats Inc., effective immediately, with the company stating that his departure was not due to any disagreement over its operations, policies or practices. Following his resignation, Vivid Seats notified Nasdaq on December 22, 2025, that it no longer met the requirement for a majority-independent board under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5605(b)(1), and the company said it expects to regain compliance within the applicable cure period, a development that places short-term pressure on its governance structure but is not expected to threaten its listing if remedied in time.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEAT) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vivid Seats stock, see the SEAT Stock Forecast page.

Vivid Seats Appoints Lawrence Fey as New CEO

Vivid Seats announced a leadership transition with Lawrence Fey appointed as the new CEO, succeeding Stan Chia, who will remain in an advisory role until December 1, 2025. The company reported a decline in its third-quarter 2025 financial results, with a 29% decrease in Marketplace Gross Order Value and a net loss of $19.7 million, as it focuses on cost reduction and efficiency initiatives to drive future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEAT) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vivid Seats stock, see the SEAT Stock Forecast page.

Vivid Seats Announces Corporate Simplification Agreement

On October 19, 2025, Vivid Seats Inc. announced a Corporate Simplification Agreement to streamline its organizational structure by terminating its Tax Receivable Agreement and eliminating its dual-class stock structure. This strategic move is expected to save the company up to $180 million in lifetime tax savings and reduce annual cash tax payments significantly. The agreement will also simplify financial reporting and reduce compliance costs, enhancing Vivid Seats’ long-term cash flow profile. The transactions, approved by a special committee of the board, will result in the issuance of Class A common stock to former TRA parties and the cancellation of Class B common stock, consolidating Vivid Seats’ stock into a single class.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEAT) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vivid Seats stock, see the SEAT Stock Forecast page.