Groupon (GRPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $658.60M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 945.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.02
• Revenue Growth: -0.76%
• EPS Growth: -635.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,079
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -2.92
• Shares Outstanding: 40,754,803
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 981,245
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 945,469
• PEG Ratio: 0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -16.39
• 1Y Price Target: $35.33
• Price Target Upside: 118.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $556.53M

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▼(-4.08% Downside)

Groupon's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial instability and bearish technical indicators. While the earnings call provided some positive insights, the company's financial health and valuation concerns weigh heavily on the score.

Positive Factors

Global Billings Growth

Sustained growth in global billings indicates strong demand and effective market strategies, enhancing long-term revenue potential.

Core Local Category Success

The expansion of the core local category underscores the scalability of Groupon's business model, supporting future growth and market penetration.

Technology Advancements

Improved conversion rates reflect successful platform modernization, which can enhance user experience and drive higher transaction volumes.

Negative Factors

Financial Instability

Persistent financial instability with negative equity and losses can limit strategic investments and pose risks to long-term viability.

SEO Traffic Decline

Declining SEO traffic can hinder customer acquisition and increase marketing costs, impacting long-term growth and profitability.

Italian Tax Settlement Uncertainty

Uncertainty around the Italian tax settlement poses financial risk and could lead to unexpected expenses, affecting cash flow and financial planning.

Groupon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Groupon, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. It operates in two segments, North America and International. The company sells goods or services on behalf of third-party merchants; and first-party goods inventory. It serves customers through its mobile applications and websites. The company was formerly known as ThePoint.com, Inc. and changed its name to Groupon, Inc. in October 2008. Groupon, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Groupon generates revenue primarily through the sale of vouchers for local services, travel, and products. The company's revenue model is based on a commission structure, where it takes a percentage of the sales price from merchants for every voucher sold. Additionally, Groupon offers advertising services to businesses, enabling them to promote their offerings on the platform. Key revenue streams include the sale of vouchers, merchant fees, and advertising revenue. Significant partnerships with local businesses and national brands enhance its offering, ensuring a diverse range of deals while contributing to its earnings.

Groupon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Groupon faces significant financial challenges with negative net profit margins and high leverage. Despite strong gross profit margins, the negative equity and profitability issues highlight financial instability.

Income Statement

Groupon's income statement reveals a challenging financial position. The company has experienced a slight revenue growth of 1.71% in the TTM, but it is overshadowed by negative net profit margins (-28.52%) and EBIT margins (-16.86%). The gross profit margin is strong at 90.86%, indicating efficient cost management, but the persistent net losses highlight profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows significant financial instability. Groupon has a negative stockholders' equity, leading to a concerning debt-to-equity ratio of -5.84 in the TTM. The return on equity is also negative, reflecting ongoing losses. These metrics suggest high leverage and financial risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates some positive aspects, such as a positive operating cash flow of $74.85 million in the TTM. However, the free cash flow growth is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.22, reflecting challenges in converting income into cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively better at 0.80, showing some ability to generate cash despite losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	496.09M	492.56M	514.91M	599.09M	967.11M	1.42B
Gross Profit	448.35M	444.31M	450.66M	522.82M	737.12M	677.29M
EBITDA	-62.91M	9.04M	23.51M	-114.93M	178.05M	-173.35M
Net Income	-141.51M	-59.03M	-55.41M	-237.61M	118.67M	-287.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	608.18M	612.69M	570.96M	793.12M	1.16B	1.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	267.81M	228.84M	141.56M	281.28M	498.73M	850.59M
Total Debt	351.20M	252.93M	278.75M	346.76M	414.21M	558.17M
Total Liabilities	667.56M	571.64M	611.27M	784.26M	947.59M	1.30B
Stockholders Equity	-59.55M	40.81M	-40.63M	8.47M	209.87M	107.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	60.06M	39.97M	-97.27M	-174.83M	-176.72M	-112.31M
Operating Cash Flow	74.85M	55.89M	-77.98M	-135.99M	-123.96M	-63.60M
Investing Cash Flow	258.00K	-6.81M	-1.40M	-38.84M	-45.81M	-20.12M
Financing Cash Flow	8.45M	47.79M	-35.69M	-34.41M	-183.85M	176.80M

Groupon Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.97, below the 50-day MA of 17.16, and below the 200-day MA of 23.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRPN.

Groupon Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YELP	77 Outperform	$1.73B	12.41	20.37%	―	5.35%	33.74%
TBLA	72 Outperform	$1.20B	57.50	2.63%	―	10.96%	―
FVRR	64 Neutral	$610.84M	28.27	6.18%	―	12.68%	133.00%
MAX	61 Neutral	$744.26M	-528.70	―	―	64.86%	-112.92%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
NXDR	58 Neutral	$748.93M	-11.78	-14.07%	―	6.65%	50.32%
GRPN	41 Neutral	$658.60M	-4.63	―	―	-0.76%	-635.75%

Groupon Corporate Events

Groupon Resolves Longstanding Italian Tax Disputes with Settlement

On December 29, 2025, Groupon’s Italian subsidiary, Groupon S.r.l., entered into a binding framework agreement with the Italian tax authorities, definitively resolving tax disputes dating back to at least 2012. The settlement totals approximately $25.2 million, including amounts previously paid, with a final payment of about $33,000 due in the first quarter of 2026; the company does not expect further material obligations related to these assessments, anticipates no material change to its accrued expenses for the fourth quarter of 2025, and expects a roughly $15 million reduction in free cash flow from the settlement payments. Separately, on December 22–23, 2025, the board’s compensation committee approved and executed an amendment to CEO Dušan Šenkypl’s Performance Share Unit award agreement to correct an administrative error regarding the tax treatment of PSUs that vested on August 11, 2025, clarifying that the change is purely administrative, does not alter the number of units or shares, does not materially change vesting conditions, and provides no additional economic benefit or new compensation arrangement.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRPN) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Groupon stock, see the GRPN Stock Forecast page.

Groupon CFO to Present at Raymond James Conference

Groupon, Inc. announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Rana Kashyap, will present at the Raymond James TMT & Consumer Conference on December 8, 2025, to discuss the company’s recent business performance and operational insights. The presentation will include forward-looking statements about the company’s expectations for its quarterly performance and trends in its Local, Goods, and Travel categories, although actual results may vary.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRPN) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Groupon stock, see the GRPN Stock Forecast page.