Groupon (GRPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.37B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.58
• Revenue Growth: -5.76%
• EPS Growth: 21.27%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,079
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 90
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 39,816,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,761,547
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,463,992
• PEG Ratio: -1.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 31.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.81
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.82
• 1Y Price Target: $33.67
• Price Target Upside: -3.96% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(2.68%Upside)

Groupon's overall stock score is driven by financial challenges, including declining revenue and high debt levels, which are partially offset by positive momentum in technical indicators and strategic financial management. The strong earnings call and leadership changes provide optimism, but valuation remains a concern due to ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Billings Growth

Billings and Adj. EBITDA exceeded the high-end of the guide, led by North America Local Billings accelerating to +11% YoY, marking the first quarter of double-digit growth since 2017.

Long-term Growth Potential

Valuations currently still present a favorable risk/reward based on long term growth potential.

Market Position

The platform's improved supply position is leading to better demand, with the number of brands generating over $1mm in North America billings growing +43% YoY.

Negative Factors

Consumer Spending Risk

There is mounting risk of volatility in discretionary consumer spending, which could impact demand for local services more broadly.

Share Price Valuation

The recent sharp increase in the share price, with GRPN now trading at 13x NTM Street Adj. EBITDA, is negatively impacting the risk-reward ratio.

Groupon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Groupon, Inc. is a global e-commerce marketplace that connects subscribers with local merchants by offering activities, travel, goods, and services at significant discounts. The company operates in the online deal industry and focuses on building relationships with small businesses by providing them a platform to reach a wider audience. Groupon's core service involves offering consumers discounted deals on a wide range of products and services, from dining and entertainment to health, beauty, and travel.

How the Company Makes Money

Groupon generates revenue primarily through the sale of vouchers that offer discounts on goods and services from local businesses. The company's key revenue streams include transaction fees collected from merchants when a voucher is sold, as well as direct sales of goods and services. Groupon also earns money through its commission model, where it takes a percentage of the sales generated through its platform. In addition, Groupon has partnerships with various merchants and service providers, which help to expand its offerings and customer reach. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by the volume of transactions processed through its platform and the ability to attract and retain both consumers and local merchants.

Groupon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Groupon is experiencing significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and persistent net losses indicating ongoing struggles. The high debt-to-equity ratio highlights financial risk, despite some improvements in cash flow.

Income Statement

Groupon's revenue has been declining with a notable drop from $967 million in 2021 to $486 million TTM. The company has been struggling with profitability, evidenced by negative net income margins consistently over the years, reaching -8.13% TTM. Gross profit margins remain strong at 90.4% TTM, but significant EBIT and EBITDA margin declines reflect operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.49 TTM, indicating significant financial risk. Stockholders' equity is low, though the equity ratio improved slightly to 7.48% TTM. The company has been reducing total assets and liabilities, but equity remains weak, suggesting vulnerability to financial instability.

Cash Flow

Groupon's cash flow from operations improved to $65.98 million TTM from previous negative figures. Free cash flow has seen positive growth, reaching $50.37 million TTM, indicating better cash management. However, fluctuations in cash flow figures and past negative free cash flows highlight potential volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	486.66M	492.56M	514.91M	599.09M	967.11M	1.42B
Gross Profit	440.05M	444.31M	450.66M	522.82M	737.12M	677.29M
EBITDA	1.58M	9.04M	23.51M	-114.93M	178.05M	-173.35M
Net Income	-39.58M	-59.03M	-55.41M	-234.38M	118.67M	-286.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	608.15M	612.69M	570.96M	793.12M	1.16B	1.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	226.81M	228.84M	141.56M	281.28M	498.73M	850.59M
Total Debt	249.63M	252.93M	278.75M	309.23M	382.15M	520.42M
Total Liabilities	562.50M	571.64M	611.27M	784.26M	947.59M	1.30B
Stockholders Equity	45.48M	40.81M	-40.63M	8.47M	209.87M	107.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	50.37M	40.56M	-99.80M	-174.83M	-176.72M	-116.55M
Operating Cash Flow	65.98M	55.89M	-77.98M	-135.99M	-123.96M	-63.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.62M	-6.81M	-1.40M	-38.84M	-45.81M	-20.12M
Financing Cash Flow	11.99M	47.79M	-35.69M	-34.41M	-183.85M	176.80M

Groupon Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 35.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRPN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.26, above the 50-day MA of 27.91, and above the 200-day MA of 16.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRPN.

Groupon Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVER	75 Outperform	$882.94M	23.50	32.17%	―	113.43%	―
SSTK	71 Outperform	$708.60M	18.52	7.07%	6.57%	10.30%	-57.87%
ANGI	69 Neutral	$772.59M	15.68	5.05%	―	-16.79%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$41.07B	-0.81	-14.21%	3.83%	2.45%	-73.69%
GRPN	56 Neutral	$1.37B	35.54	-90.27%	―	-5.76%	21.27%
SEAT	56 Neutral	$389.48M	25.25	-1.00%	―	0.82%	-102.72%
KIND	51 Neutral	$604.49M	―	-18.77%	―	12.01%	35.71%

Groupon Corporate Events

Groupon Issues Convertible Senior Notes to Extend Debt

On July 2, 2025, Groupon Inc. issued $244,071,000 in 4.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, as part of an exchange for its existing notes due 2026 and 2027. This strategic move involved private placements with institutional investors, aiming to manage and extend the company’s debt maturity profile. Additionally, Groupon entered into agreements with BNP Paribas, Barclays Bank PLC, and Mizuho Markets Americas LLC to unwind certain capped call transactions related to its 2026 Notes, which will result in cash payments to Groupon. These financial maneuvers are expected to impact the company’s financial obligations and liquidity management positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRPN) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Groupon stock, see the GRPN Stock Forecast page.

Groupon Announces New Convertible Senior Notes Issuance

On June 18, 2025, Groupon announced it had entered into exchange agreements with certain holders of its convertible senior notes due 2026 and 2027, resulting in the issuance of $244 million in new convertible senior notes due 2030. This transaction aims to improve Groupon’s financial structure by exchanging existing notes for new ones with different terms, potentially impacting its financial flexibility and obligations. The new notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, come with specific conversion and redemption terms and are expected to close around July 2, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRPN) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Groupon stock, see the GRPN Stock Forecast page.