Groupon Inc (GRPN)
NASDAQ:GRPN
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Groupon
(NASDAQ:GRPN)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(4.62% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses and negative equity despite strong gross margins) and a neutral-to-weak technical trend (below key longer-term moving averages with negative MACD). Partially offsetting this are improving cash generation and a cautiously positive earnings outlook that targets continued free cash flow and modest growth, while valuation is only average given limited income consistency and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Exceptional Gross Margins
Sustained ~90% gross margins create a structural advantage for Groupon’s marketplace model, providing a wide gross profit buffer to cover fixed costs, fund product investment and absorb marketing variability. Over months this supports margin recovery if SG&A is controlled and volume grows.
Negative Factors
Weak Balance Sheet & Rising Leverage
Negative stockholders’ equity and higher debt materially increase financial risk and reduce strategic flexibility. Over the medium term this elevates refinancing costs, limits capacity for M&A or large investments, and makes covenants or external funding more constraining if cash generation softens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Exceptional Gross Margins
Sustained ~90% gross margins create a structural advantage for Groupon’s marketplace model, providing a wide gross profit buffer to cover fixed costs, fund product investment and absorb marketing variability. Over months this supports margin recovery if SG&A is controlled and volume grows.
Read all positive factors
Groupon (GRPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$467.33M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.95
Revenue Growth-0.76%
EPS Growth-635.75%
CountryUS
Employees2,079
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding40,743,492
10 Day Avg. Volume1,162,679
30 Day Avg. Volume1,509,375
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)-16.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio14.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.33Price Target Upside103.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$540.83M
Groupon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Groupon, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. It operates in two segments, North America and International. The company sells goods or services on behalf of third-party merchants; and f...
How the Company Makes Money
Groupon primarily makes money by earning revenue from transactions facilitated on its marketplace. When a customer buys a deal, Groupon collects payment and recognizes revenue based on its role in the transaction: (1) Marketplace/commission econom...
Groupon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, indicating where the company is thriving and where it might need to boost performance.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, indicating where the company is thriving and where it might need to boost performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGroupon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a materially improved company profile with meaningful operational and financial progress (return to billings and revenue growth, positive free cash flow, healthier cash balance, product/platform momentum, clear AI strategy and governance). However, the company missed Q4 guidance and highlighted concentrated near-term headwinds in the enterprise channel and owned/organic marketing (SEO) that will take multiple quarters to remedy. Management provided concrete plans and guidance that assume moderate growth in 2026, balancing optimism about the product/AI-driven roadmap with realistic timing for channel recoveries.Positive Updates
Return to Growth and Strong Financial Position
Full-year 2025 global billings grew 7% to approximately $1.67 billion; first time in a decade returning to billings and revenue growth. Company delivered a second consecutive year of positive free cash flow and exited 2025 with approximately $296 million in cash.
Negative Updates
Q4 Miss vs. Guidance
Q4 billings grew 4% year-over-year but came in below guidance; revenue and adjusted EBITDA also missed guidance, with the shortfall concentrated in specific areas rather than broadly distributed.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Return to Growth and Strong Financial Position
Full-year 2025 global billings grew 7% to approximately $1.67 billion; first time in a decade returning to billings and revenue growth. Company delivered a second consecutive year of positive free cash flow and exited 2025 with approximately $296 million in cash.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Groupon guided 2026 to modest growth with billings and revenue each expected to rise 3%–5%, adjusted EBITDA of $70–$75 million, and at least $60 million of free cash flow, while reiterating a longer‑term ambition to accelerate global billings growth to over 20%; the company noted FY2025 context of $1.67 billion in billings (+7% YoY), Q4 billings +4% (below guidance), positive free cash flow for a second consecutive year, $296 million cash at year‑end, 16.2 million global active customers (+>5% YoY) with North America local actives +12%, expects completion of iOS migration by end of Q1 (50% migrated today), is targeting AI agents initiating transactions by mid‑2026, plans an investor event in 2H26, and flagged marketing to grow high‑single digits while SG&A ex D&A and stock‑based comp should be roughly flat year‑over‑year.Groupon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 498.42M | 492.56M | 514.91M | 599.09M | 967.11M |
| Gross Profit | 443.47M | 444.31M | 450.66M | 522.82M | 737.12M |
| EBITDA | 31.56M | 9.04M | 23.51M | -114.93M | 178.05M |
| Net Income | -83.52M | -59.03M | -55.41M | -237.61M | 118.67M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 670.41M | 612.69M | 570.96M | 793.12M | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 296.08M | 228.84M | 141.56M | 281.28M | 498.73M |
| Total Debt | 349.60M | 252.93M | 278.75M | 346.76M | 414.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 712.80M | 571.64M | 611.27M | 784.26M | 947.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | -42.56M | 40.81M | -40.63M | 8.47M | 209.87M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 49.87M | 39.97M | -97.27M | -174.83M | -176.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 64.50M | 55.89M | -77.98M | -135.99M | -123.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 6.42M | -6.81M | -1.40M | -38.84M | -45.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.51M | 47.79M | -35.69M | -34.41M | -183.85M |
Groupon Technical Analysis
Negative
11.47
Price Trends
12.12
Negative
14.47
Negative
20.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.11
Negative
48.30
Neutral
63.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.08, below the 50-day MA of 12.12, and below the 200-day MA of 20.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRPN.
Groupon Risk Analysis
Groupon disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Groupon reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Groupon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.52B | 13.22 | 19.96% | ― | 5.35% | 33.74% | |
64 Neutral | $366.34M | 34.17 | 5.27% | ― | 12.68% | 133.00% | |
61 Neutral | $929.95M | 33.98 | 4.51% | ― | 10.96% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
56 Neutral | $592.06M | 28.43 | -477.82% | ― | 64.86% | -112.92% | |
51 Neutral | $550.57M | -14.97 | -12.56% | ― | 6.65% | 50.32% | |
50 Neutral | $467.33M | -8.50 | 6142.31% | ― | -0.76% | -635.75% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GRPN
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11.47
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-35.96%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.