Groupon (GRPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.23B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.66
• Revenue Growth: -4.72%
• EPS Growth: 84.11%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,079
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 90
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 40,425,983
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,963,526
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,257,463
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 31.99
• 1Y Price Target: $36.25
• Price Target Upside: 19.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▼(-1.12% Downside)

Groupon's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including declining revenue and high debt levels. While technical indicators and valuation are weak, the positive outlook from the earnings call and strategic corporate events provide some optimism.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Billings and Adj. EBITDA exceeded the high-end of the guide, with North America Local Billings showing double-digit growth for the first time since 2017.

Growth

The platform's improved supply position is leading to better demand, with a significant increase in the number of brands generating over $1mm in North America billings.

Long-term potential

Raising the 12-month price target to $19 from $14, reflecting growth prospects and large potential.

Negative Factors

Consumer spending

There is mounting risk of volatility in discretionary consumer spending, which could impact demand for local services more broadly.

Valuation

The recent sharp increase in the share price, with GRPN now trading at 13x NTM Street Adj. EBITDA, is negatively impacting the risk-reward ratio.

Groupon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Groupon, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. It operates in two segments, North America and International. The company sells goods or services on behalf of third-party merchants; and first-party goods inventory. It serves customers through its mobile applications and websites. The company was formerly known as ThePoint.com, Inc. and changed its name to Groupon, Inc. in October 2008. Groupon, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Groupon generates revenue primarily through the sale of vouchers for local deals, which are offered at a discount to the consumer. When a consumer purchases a Groupon voucher, Groupon retains a portion of the payment as its fee, while the remaining amount goes to the merchant. This commission-based model is a significant revenue stream for the company. Additionally, Groupon earns revenue from its marketplace services, which includes promotional marketing and advertising solutions for businesses to enhance visibility and attract customers. Partnerships with various local and national brands further contribute to its earnings by providing exclusive deals, thus driving higher traffic and sales through the platform.

Groupon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Groupon is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenue and persistent net losses. High debt levels and low equity heighten financial risk, although recent improvements in cash flow provide a glimmer of hope.

Income Statement

Groupon's revenue has been declining with a notable drop from $967 million in 2021 to $486 million TTM. The company has been struggling with profitability, evidenced by negative net income margins consistently over the years, reaching -8.13% TTM. Gross profit margins remain strong at 90.4% TTM, but significant EBIT and EBITDA margin declines reflect operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.49 TTM, indicating significant financial risk. Stockholders' equity is low, though the equity ratio improved slightly to 7.48% TTM. The company has been reducing total assets and liabilities, but equity remains weak, suggesting vulnerability to financial instability.

Cash Flow

Groupon's cash flow from operations improved to $65.98 million TTM from previous negative figures. Free cash flow has seen positive growth, reaching $50.37 million TTM, indicating better cash management. However, fluctuations in cash flow figures and past negative free cash flows highlight potential volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	487.75M	492.56M	514.91M	599.09M	967.11M	1.42B
Gross Profit	441.81M	444.31M	450.66M	522.82M	737.12M	677.29M
EBITDA	51.79M	9.04M	23.51M	-114.93M	178.05M	-173.35M
Net Income	-9.21M	-59.03M	-55.41M	-234.38M	118.67M	-286.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	647.40M	612.69M	570.96M	793.12M	1.16B	1.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	262.57M	228.84M	141.56M	281.28M	498.73M	850.59M
Total Debt	254.93M	252.93M	278.75M	309.23M	382.15M	520.42M
Total Liabilities	596.08M	571.64M	611.27M	784.26M	947.59M	1.30B
Stockholders Equity	51.20M	40.81M	-40.63M	8.47M	209.87M	107.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	39.76M	40.56M	-99.80M	-174.83M	-176.72M	-116.55M
Operating Cash Flow	50.68M	55.89M	-77.98M	-135.99M	-123.96M	-63.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-160.00K	-6.81M	-1.40M	-38.84M	-45.81M	-20.12M
Financing Cash Flow	11.03M	47.79M	-35.69M	-34.41M	-183.85M	176.80M

Groupon Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 30.34
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRPN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.26, below the 50-day MA of 33.55, and above the 200-day MA of 19.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GRPN.

Groupon Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SSTK	81 Outperform	$717.64M	11.22	11.62%	5.80%	14.20%	38.92%
EVER	73 Outperform	$858.42M	19.41	34.34%	―	92.91%	―
ANGI	66 Neutral	$779.98M	14.68	5.86%	―	-15.79%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$43.99B	4.24	-10.43%	4.00%	2.31%	-34.39%
SEAT	50 Neutral	$180.04M	25.25	-75.68%	―	-10.52%	-420.74%
GRPN	49 Neutral	$1.23B	35.54	-19.11%	―	-4.72%	84.11%
NXDR	49 Neutral	$703.94M	―	-14.27%	―	9.65%	56.50%

Groupon Corporate Events

Groupon Issues Convertible Senior Notes to Extend Debt

On July 2, 2025, Groupon Inc. issued $244,071,000 in 4.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, as part of an exchange for its existing notes due 2026 and 2027. This strategic move involved private placements with institutional investors, aiming to manage and extend the company’s debt maturity profile. Additionally, Groupon entered into agreements with BNP Paribas, Barclays Bank PLC, and Mizuho Markets Americas LLC to unwind certain capped call transactions related to its 2026 Notes, which will result in cash payments to Groupon. These financial maneuvers are expected to impact the company’s financial obligations and liquidity management positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRPN) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Groupon stock, see the GRPN Stock Forecast page.

Groupon Announces New Convertible Senior Notes Issuance

On June 18, 2025, Groupon announced it had entered into exchange agreements with certain holders of its convertible senior notes due 2026 and 2027, resulting in the issuance of $244 million in new convertible senior notes due 2030. This transaction aims to improve Groupon’s financial structure by exchanging existing notes for new ones with different terms, potentially impacting its financial flexibility and obligations. The new notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, come with specific conversion and redemption terms and are expected to close around July 2, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRPN) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Groupon stock, see the GRPN Stock Forecast page.