Groupon (GRPN)
NASDAQ:GRPN
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Groupon
(NASDAQ:GRPN)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(16.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/08/26
GRPN’s score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—persistent net losses and a constrained balance sheet with negative equity and notable debt—despite currently positive cash generation. Technicals are mixed with soft near-term momentum, and valuation is difficult to justify given losses and no dividend support. Guidance reaffirmation and cost actions (restructuring and buybacks) provide some support, but execution risk remains significant.
Positive Factors
Positive Free Cash Flow
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow in the last twelve months and 2025 provides durable internal funding for operations, reinvestment, and restructuring costs. This reduces immediate reliance on external financing and supports execution of cost saves and AI investments over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative Stockholders' Equity
A negative equity position constrains financial flexibility, complicates capital raises and makes debt metrics and covenant headroom riskier. Over the medium term this reduces strategic optionality, limits capacity to absorb shocks, and raises execution risk for buybacks or M&A without dilutive or expensive financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Positive Free Cash Flow
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow in the last twelve months and 2025 provides durable internal funding for operations, reinvestment, and restructuring costs. This reduces immediate reliance on external financing and supports execution of cost saves and AI investments over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Groupon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, indicating where the company is thriving and where it might need to boost performance.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, indicating where the company is thriving and where it might need to boost performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGroupon (GRPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$662.82M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.98
Revenue Growth2.42%
EPS Growth-175.21%
CountryUS
Employees2,079
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.55
Shares Outstanding37,983,980
10 Day Avg. Volume1,422,726
30 Day Avg. Volume2,014,410
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)-16.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio14.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-23.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.33Price Target Upside85.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$520.09M
Groupon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Groupon, Inc., encompassing its various subsidiary entities, operates a digital platform designed to connect shoppers with businesses. The company's operational scope is geographically segmented into two primary areas: North America and its Intern...
How the Company Makes Money
Groupon primarily makes money by earning revenue from transactions facilitated on its marketplace. When a customer buys a deal, Groupon collects payment and recognizes revenue based on its role in the transaction: (1) Marketplace/commission econom...
Groupon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced meaningful operational progress (platform rollouts, CDP activation, early AI deployments, April recovery signals, and a large remaining buyback capacity) against near-term financial and operational challenges (Q1 billings miss, adjusted EBITDA slightly below guidance with severance, softness in managed/organic channels and North America local SMB acquisition, and planned additional headcount reductions). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and articulated a clear AI-led strategic path, but several material execution risks and potential restructuring actions leave the near-term outlook uncertain.Positive Updates
Platform and Product Rollouts Completed
New iOS app fully deployed across North America; new Android app launched in North America at end of Q1 to new users; new international web platform live in all markets. Customer Data Platform (CDP) live in all major markets, enabling managed channel strategies anchored on customer lifetime value.
Negative Updates
Billings Decline and Miss vs. Expectations
Q1 global billings of $383 million declined 1% year-over-year and came in slightly below guidance, a primary headline miss for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Platform and Product Rollouts Completed
New iOS app fully deployed across North America; new Android app launched in North America at end of Q1 to new users; new international web platform live in all markets. Customer Data Platform (CDP) live in all major markets, enabling managed channel strategies anchored on customer lifetime value.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Groupon reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for billings growth of 3%–5%, revenue of $513M–$523M, adjusted EBITDA of $70M–$75M and free cash flow of at least $60M; for Q2 management guided billings flat to +2%, revenue of $126M–$128M and adjusted EBITDA of $13M–$15M. For context, Q1 results were global billings of $383M (–1% YoY), revenue of $117M (flat YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $12.8M (which included roughly $2M of severance related to ~5% headcount reduction in Q1); management is evaluating an additional ~15% headcount reduction in Q2 (not yet approved). Since March 10 the company repurchased 2.8M shares for $29.7M at a $10.58 weighted average price (≈7% of shares outstanding) and about $215M remains available under the buyback.Groupon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 498.44M | 498.42M | 492.56M | 514.91M | 599.09M | 967.11M |
| Gross Profit | 449.89M | 443.47M | 444.31M | 450.66M | 522.82M | 737.12M |
| EBITDA | -31.14M | -12.60M | 9.04M | 23.51M | -114.93M | 178.05M |
| Net Income | -103.56M | -83.52M | -59.03M | -55.41M | -237.61M | 118.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 595.85M | 670.41M | 612.69M | 570.96M | 793.12M | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 225.51M | 296.08M | 228.84M | 141.56M | 281.28M | 498.73M |
| Total Debt | 314.19M | 349.60M | 252.93M | 278.75M | 346.76M | 414.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 658.33M | 712.80M | 571.64M | 611.27M | 784.26M | 947.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | -62.59M | -42.56M | 40.81M | -40.63M | 8.47M | 209.87M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 40.12M | 49.87M | 39.97M | -97.27M | -174.83M | -176.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 54.56M | 64.50M | 55.89M | -77.98M | -135.99M | -123.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 6.60M | 6.42M | -6.81M | -1.40M | -38.84M | -45.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -62.73M | -7.51M | 47.79M | -35.69M | -34.41M | -183.85M |
Groupon Technical Analysis
Positive
14.21
Price Trends
16.22
Positive
14.30
Positive
16.88
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Positive
50.10
Neutral
46.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRPN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.15, below the 50-day MA of 16.22, and below the 200-day MA of 16.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRPN.
Groupon Risk Analysis
Groupon disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Groupon reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Groupon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.24B | 9.86 | 19.70% | ― | 2.09% | 4.03% | |
75 Outperform | $1.35B | 12.92 | 11.91% | ― | 9.62% | 880.15% | |
64 Neutral | $819.98M | -19.49 | -10.32% | ― | 6.78% | 52.54% | |
63 Neutral | $358.43M | 12.36 | 7.03% | ― | 5.94% | 56.89% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | $613.53M | 14.29 | -568.82% | ― | 15.66% | 138.39% | |
49 Neutral | $662.82M | -6.76 | 364.92% | ― | 2.42% | -175.21% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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Groupon Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Groupon Names New COO to Drive Marketplace Transformation
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
Groupon, the Chicago-based experiences marketplace listed on Nasdaq as GRPN, connects consumers with local experiences and services, emphasizing value and customer acquisition for merchants. Its marketplace model positions the company at the inter...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Groupon Launches Workforce Restructuring to Support AI Strategy
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Groupon’s board approved an initial restructuring phase to support its AI-native strategy, planning a global workforce reduction of up to 400 positions by the end of the third quarter of 2026, subject to local legal processe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.