Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY)
NASDAQ:RYAAY
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Ryanair Holdings
(NASDAQ:RYAAY)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$61.00
▼(-1.66% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/28/26
The score is driven mainly by strong financial profitability and an improved balance sheet, supported by constructive guidance and shareholder returns from the latest earnings call. The key offsets are weaker recent free-cash-flow conversion and softer near-term technical momentum, while valuation appears reasonable.
Positive Factors
Profitability and margins
Ryanair’s trailing‑twelve‑month margins are materially higher than recent loss years, showing durable earnings power from its low‑cost model and ancillary sales. Healthy margins give resilience to cyclical downturns, support reinvestment and shareholder returns, and imply sustainable operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow conversion
Despite strong accounting profits, recent free cash flow fell into negative TTM territory, reflecting heavier capex and working‑capital pressure. If cash conversion remains weak, it constrains organic funding for capacity growth, limits cushion for buybacks/dividends and raises execution risk around timely fleet deliveries.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability and margins
Ryanair’s trailing‑twelve‑month margins are materially higher than recent loss years, showing durable earnings power from its low‑cost model and ancillary sales. Healthy margins give resilience to cyclical downturns, support reinvestment and shareholder returns, and imply sustainable operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.44B
Dividend Yield1.37%
Average Volume (3M)1.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)270.0
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth16.68%
EPS Growth51.06%
CountryUS
Employees27,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding521,965,900
10 Day Avg. Volume1,280,281
30 Day Avg. Volume1,478,748
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)3.06
Price to Sales (P/S)1.55
P/FCF Ratio11.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$80.00Price Target Upside28.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)5.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.22B
Ryanair Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ryanair Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled-passenger airline services in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Germany, and other European countries. It is also involved in the provision of various ancillary serv...
How the Company Makes Money
Ryanair primarily makes money from (1) passenger ticket revenue and (2) ancillary revenue generated around its flight network. Passenger revenue comes from selling seats on scheduled flights, with pricing generally based on demand, route, seasonal...
Ryanair Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 26, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes multiple operational and financial strengths: traffic and fare recovery, strong revenue growth, disciplined cost control with flat unit costs in Q3, significant fuel hedges for FY '27, solid liquidity and balance sheet, active buyback/dividend returns, and clear long-term fleet/growth plans (MAX 10s to 300 million passengers). Key negatives include a one-off exceptional provision for the Italian AGCM fine (EUR 85m), a 22% decline in Q3 PAT driven largely by the absence of prior-year Boeing compensation, and ongoing exposure to external risks (ATC costs, environmental charges, geopolitical shocks). Management framed the legal issue as likely reversible, reiterated conservative provisioning, and maintained confident guidance for FY profit and traffic growth. Overall, positives (recovering demand, revenue growth, strong hedging and balance sheet, clear growth runway) outweigh the material but manageable negatives.Positive Updates
Quarterly Traffic and Load Factor
Q3 traffic increased 6% to 47.5 million passengers with a stable load factor of 92%.
Negative Updates
Q3 Profit Decline
Q3 profit after tax pre-exceptional was EUR 115 million, down 22% year-on-year, driven primarily by the absence of Boeing delivery compensation compared with the prior year.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Traffic and Load Factor
Q3 traffic increased 6% to 47.5 million passengers with a stable load factor of 92%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ryanair guided FY‑26 traffic to 208 million passengers (up 4% YoY) with full‑year fares now seen at about +8–9% (vs prior +7%), Q3 traffic was 47.5m (+6%) at a 92% load factor with average fares +4%, revenue per passenger +3% and total Q3 revenue €3.21bn (ancillaries +7%, +1% per pax); Q3 profit after tax pre‑exceptional was €115m (down 22%) with unit costs flat and total Q3 costs (ex‑AGCM) €3.11bn, while an Italian AGCM EUR256m fine has a 33% provision of ~€85m; FY‑26 profit after tax pre‑exceptional is being cautiously guided to €2.13–2.23bn, gross cash €2.4bn/ net cash ~€1bn, CapEx ~€2bn for FY‑26 (and similar FY‑27), interim dividend ~€0.19/share, EUR750m buyback 46% complete (€340m, 13.1m shares at €26 avg), fleet 643 with 206 Gamechangers (210 after 4 Feb deliveries), 300 MAX‑10s on order with first 15 expected Spring 2027, FY‑27 traffic target 216m (+4%) and a long‑term goal of 300m by FY‑34; fuel hedges are ~84% for Q4 at ~$76–77/bbl and 80% for FY‑27 at $67/bbl (c.10% saving), and euro/dollar exposure is locked at ~€1.15 for next year.Ryanair Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.33B | 13.95B | 13.44B | 10.78B | 4.80B | 1.64B |
| Gross Profit | 4.15B | 2.65B | 3.88B | 2.22B | 120.70M | -66.90M |
| EBITDA | 4.09B | 3.07B | 3.06B | 2.44B | 381.00M | -337.00M |
| Net Income | 2.24B | 1.61B | 1.92B | 1.31B | -240.80M | -1.02B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.04B | 17.51B | 17.18B | 16.41B | 15.15B | 12.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.42B | 3.96B | 4.11B | 4.66B | 3.60B | 3.12B |
| Total Debt | 1.53B | 2.68B | 2.75B | 4.12B | 5.08B | 5.43B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.26B | 10.47B | 9.56B | 10.76B | 9.60B | 7.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.78B | 7.04B | 7.61B | 5.64B | 5.55B | 4.65B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -16.43M | 1.86B | 766.00M | 1.98B | 758.90M | 758.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.62B | 3.42B | 3.16B | 3.89B | 1.94B | 1.94B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.16B | -1.43B | -1.56B | -1.90B | -1.41B | -1.41B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.14B | -2.00B | -1.33B | -1.05B | -536.50M | -536.50M |
Ryanair Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
62.03
Price Trends
62.88
Negative
66.16
Negative
63.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.36
Negative
51.49
Neutral
34.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYAAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.16, below the 50-day MA of 62.88, and below the 200-day MA of 63.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RYAAY.
Ryanair Holdings Risk Analysis
Ryanair Holdings disclosed 10 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ryanair Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
In 2021, a law was passed in France prohibiting domestic flights where an alternative direct train service operates in under 2.5 hours, with an exception made for connecting flights. The European Commission found this distorted competition between point to point carriers and network operators. Consequently, France amended the law to remove this exemption for connecting flights. The new formulation of the law de facto means that only 3 routes to Paris Orly airport are affected. The European Commission approved this law in December 2022. Q1, 2023
Ryanair Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $12.95B | 10.91 | 135.39% | 3.50% | 11.93% | 54.06% | |
73 Outperform | $27.44B | 269.96 | 27.85% | 1.37% | 16.68% | 51.06% | |
72 Outperform | $44.67B | -37.50 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 5.24% | 20.93% | |
71 Outperform | $29.21B | 10.76 | 24.91% | ― | 4.73% | 1.55% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
51 Neutral | $18.53B | 20.61 | 10.67% | 1.73% | 4.72% | 72.71% | |
50 Neutral | $7.74B | -4.65 | -5.17% | ― | 3.33% | -70.60% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings
54.47
4.67
9.37%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
68.98
24.02
53.43%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
38.76
9.28
31.46%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
92.52
17.66
23.59%
AAL
American Airlines
11.84
1.18
11.07%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
47.26
15.50
48.80%
Ryanair Holdings Corporate Events
Ryanair Continues Share Buyback With April 20–24, 2026 Share Cancellations
Apr 27, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said it bought back and cancelled 10,000 ordinary shares and 574,716 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares between 20 and 24 April 2026, paying volume-weighted average prices ranging from €23.01 to €24....
Ryanair Discloses Capital Group Stake Increase Above 15% Voting Threshold
Apr 27, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that The Capital Group Companies, Inc., a major U.S.-based asset manager, has increased its stake in the airline above the 15% voting rights threshold. The change, which took place on 23 April 2026 and was notified to Ry...
Ryanair Cancels Over 584,000 Shares in April 2026 Buyback
Apr 20, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said it repurchased and cancelled a total of 10,000 ordinary shares and 574,158 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares between 13 and 17 April 2026. The transactions were executed at volume-weighted average prices o...
Ryanair Confirms EU Investors Hold 30% of Share Capital at March 2026 Year-End
Apr 14, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said that as of its financial year end on 31 March 2026, 30% of its issued share capital was held by EU nationals, including citizens of the EU-27, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. This confirmation follows an earli...
Ryanair Continues Share Buyback With Early April 2026 Purchases for Cancellation
Apr 13, 2026
Ryanair Holdings has continued its capital return strategy with share repurchases conducted between 6 and 10 April 2026 under its ongoing buyback programme launched in May 2025. Over the period, the airline bought 7,322 ordinary shares and 572,296...
Ryanair Cancels Over 460,000 Shares in Latest Buyback Tranche
Apr 7, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc reported that between 30 March and 2 April 2026 it repurchased 7,500 ordinary shares and 454,920 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares, paying volume-weighted average prices in euros for the local stock and in ...
Ryanair Continues Share Buyback With Late-March 2026 Share Cancellations
Mar 30, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc disclosed that between 23 March 2026 and 27 March 2026 it repurchased for cancellation 10,000 ordinary shares and 574,560 ordinary shares underlying its American Depositary Shares. The transactions, executed at volume-weighted...
Ryanair Discloses Artisan Partners Crossing 4% Ownership Threshold
Mar 25, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that Artisan Partners Limited Partnership has increased its stake in the airline, crossing the 4% voting rights threshold on 23 March 2026. Artisan now holds 4.022% of Ryanair’s voting rights, up from 3.996%, with ...
Ryanair Steps Up Share Buyback With Fresh March 2026 Purchases
Mar 23, 2026
Ryanair Holdings has continued its capital return strategy with further share repurchases carried out between 16 and 20 March 2026. The airline bought back and cancelled 9,142 ordinary shares and 569,396 ordinary shares underlying American Deposit...
Ryanair Unveils £40m Expansion of Prestwick Maintenance Hub to Support Fleet Growth
Mar 20, 2026
On 20 March 2026, Ryanair announced a £40 million expansion of its aircraft maintenance facility at Prestwick Airport in Scotland, adding a new 11,938 sq m four-bay heavy maintenance hangar and component workshops. The project will increase R...
Ryanair Opens €25m Madrid Super-Hangar as It Warns on Spain’s Rising Airport Costs
Mar 18, 2026
On 18 March 2026, Ryanair inaugurated a new €25 million, 22,000 m² maintenance hangar at Madrid Barajas Airport, its largest maintenance facility with capacity for seven aircraft and 700 high-skill jobs. The hangar expands Ryanair’...
Ryanair Cancels Nearly 581,000 Shares in Ongoing March 2026 Buy-Back
Mar 16, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that between 9 and 13 March 2026 it repurchased a total of 9,920 ordinary shares and 570,718 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares for cancellation. The transactions, executed at volume-weighted average p...
Ryanair Discloses Capital Group Stake Increase Above 14% Threshold
Mar 12, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that The Capital Group Companies, Inc. has increased its stake in the airline above a key reporting threshold, according to a major shareholding notification filed in March 2026. The move underscores continued institutio...
Ryanair Director Ray Conway Buys Shares in March 2026 Transaction
Mar 11, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that non-executive director Ray Conway purchased 3,852 ordinary shares in the company at a price of €25.45 per share on 6 March 2026 in Dublin, Ireland. The transaction, reported under EU Market Abuse Regulation vi...
Ryanair Cancels Over 585,000 Shares in Early March 2026 Buyback
Mar 9, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc disclosed that between 2 and 6 March 2026 it repurchased for cancellation 9,420 ordinary shares and 575,872 ordinary shares underlying its American Depositary Shares as part of its ongoing share buyback programme launched in M...
Ryanair Continues Share Buyback With February 2026 Share Cancellations
Feb 23, 2026
Ryanair Holdings has continued its capital return strategy with further share repurchases carried out between 16 and 20 February 2026. The airline bought 6,202 ordinary shares for cancellation on the Irish market and an additional 532,750 ordinary...
Ryanair Discloses Capital Group Stake Cut Below 14% Threshold
Feb 19, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that investment manager The Capital Group Companies, Inc. reduced its stake in the airline below a key 14% voting-rights threshold on 17 February 2026. Capital Group’s holding now represents 13.82% of Ryanair’...
Ryanair Cancels Shares After Fresh Buybacks in February 2026
Feb 17, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said it repurchased and cancelled a total of 4,968 ordinary shares and 515,524 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares between 9 and 13 February 2026. The trades, executed at volume-weighted average prices ranging fr...
Ryanair Signs Multi‑Year, Multi‑Billion‑Dollar CFM Engine Services Deal as Fleet Expansion Advances
Feb 10, 2026
On 10 February 2026, Ryanair signed a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar Memorandum of Understanding with CFM, the Safran–GE Aerospace joint venture, for engine material services to support its expanding Boeing 737 fleet. The deal secures dire...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.