Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) AI Stock Analysis

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Ryanair Holdings

(NASDAQ:RYAAY)

Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:

$63.00

▲(12.02%Upside)

Ryanair's overall stock score reflects strong financial recovery and management, supported by positive technical indicators. The valuation is reasonable, albeit not exceptionally attractive. Despite some operational challenges and market uncertainties highlighted in the earnings call, the company's strategic initiatives and robust cash position offer a balanced outlook.

Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$28.53B

Dividend Yield1.68%

Average Volume (3M)1.69M

Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6

Beta (1Y)0.57

Revenue Growth3.12%

EPS Growth-13.82%

CountryUS

Employees27,000

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength85

IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.62

Shares Outstanding531,275,400

10 Day Avg. Volume1,223,414

30 Day Avg. Volume1,687,011

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.05

Price to Book (P/B)7.01

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio20.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$60.67

Price Target Upside7.88% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Ryanair Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRyanair Holdings (RYAAY) is an Irish ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) that operates primarily in the European aviation market. Founded in 1984, Ryanair has grown to become one of Europe's largest airlines by passenger numbers, serving over 200 destinations across more than 40 countries. The company operates a fleet of Boeing 737 aircraft and is known for its no-frills service model, offering low-cost flights with the option for customers to purchase additional services and amenities.

How the Company Makes MoneyRyanair makes money primarily through ticket sales, which are priced competitively to attract cost-conscious travelers. The company's ultra-low-cost carrier model focuses on maximizing aircraft utilization and minimizing operational costs, which allows Ryanair to offer low base fares. In addition to ticket sales, Ryanair generates significant revenue from ancillary services, which include fees for checked baggage, seat selection, onboard refreshments, priority boarding, and other optional services. These ancillary revenues are a critical aspect of Ryanair's business model, often contributing a substantial portion of total revenue. The company also engages in partnerships with other service providers, such as car rental companies and hotels, earning commissions on these transactions. Additionally, Ryanair's cost efficiency is bolstered by its use of secondary airports, which often have lower landing fees, and its focus on direct sales through its website and mobile app, reducing distribution costs.

Ryanair Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: 12.48%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 21, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Ryanair demonstrated strong operational metrics with record passenger traffic and effective cost control. However, financial performance was impacted by profit declines and external challenges like Boeing delivery delays and increasing regulatory costs. While the company maintains a strong cash position and is actively returning value to shareholders through buybacks, it faces significant debt repayment obligations and market uncertainties.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Passenger Traffic

Ryanair achieved a 9% growth in passenger traffic, reaching a new record of 200 million passengers, despite facing Boeing delivery delays.

Cost Control Success

Unit cost per passenger remained flat, widening the cost gap between Ryanair and its competitors, which positions the company well for future growth.

Strong Cash Position

Ryanair reported a gross cash position of EUR4 billion and net cash of EUR1.3 billion, supported by Boeing delivery delays.

Positive Outlook on Fuel Costs

Ryanair has hedged 85% of its FY '26 fuel at $76 per barrel, a 4% saving from the previous year, and secured 40% of next summer's fuel at $66 per barrel, a 13% saving.

Share Buyback Program

Ryanair conducted a 7% share buyback last year and plans to launch another EUR750 million buyback, returning cash to shareholders.

Expansion into MSCI Index

Ryanair's inclusion in the MSCI World Index was confirmed, enhancing the company's profile among global investors.

Negative Updates

Profit Decline

Ryanair's full-year profit after tax fell to EUR1.6 billion from EUR1.92 billion the previous year, primarily due to a 7% decline in airfares.

Boeing Delivery Delays

Ryanair faced growth constraints due to delays in Boeing deliveries, impacting planned expansion and resulting in only a 3% growth forecast for the current year.

Increasing Regulatory and Environmental Costs

Ryanair anticipates modest unit cost inflation due to rising route and ATC charges, as well as higher environmental costs including SAF mandates and ETS unwinding.

Debt Repayment Challenge

The company faces a significant cash flow challenge with EUR2 billion of maturing bonds, which it plans to pay down using internal cash balances.

Geopolitical and Market Risks

The overall market outlook remains uncertain with potential geopolitical risks and competitive pressures that could impact pricing and demand.

Company Guidance

In the Ryanair Holdings FY '25 earnings call, the company reported a decrease in after-tax profit to EUR 1.6 billion, down from EUR 1.92 billion the previous year, primarily due to a 7% decline in airfares. Despite this decrease, passenger traffic increased by 9% to 200 million, driven by lower fares, while unit ancillary revenue rose by 1%, and total ancillary revenue climbed 10%. The unit cost per passenger remained flat, widening the cost gap with competitors. Ryanair experienced Boeing delivery delays but still expanded its fleet to 618 aircraft, expecting a 3% growth in passengers to 206 million this year. The airline announced a 7% share buyback last year, with an additional EUR 750 million buyback planned this year. The company expects to be nearly debt-free by next year after paying down EUR 2 billion in maturing bonds. Ryanair's fuel hedging strategy secured significant savings, with 85% of FY '26 fuel hedged at $76 per barrel and 40% of next summer’s oil hedged at $66 per barrel. Despite constrained growth due to delivery delays, Ryanair anticipates a reasonable recovery in net profit, with summer 2025 demand strong and fares trending ahead of the previous year.

Ryanair Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ryanair's financial performance is robust, with strong revenue growth and profitability metrics post-pandemic. The income statement indicates solid gross and net profit margins, and the balance sheet shows low leverage with a stable financial position. However, liquidity management needs attention due to a slight decrease in cash reserves. Cash flow generation is strong, supporting operational flexibility.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Ryanair's income statement shows strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2022 to TTM 2024. The gross profit margin is solid at 24.7% TTM, and net profit margin is healthy at 12%. The company has rebounded strongly from the pandemic lows, with consistent improvement in EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a favorable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 TTM, showcasing low leverage. The equity ratio of 49.9% TTM highlights strong equity financing. However, the slight decrease in cash reserves and increase in net debt from the previous year suggest a cautious approach to liquidity management is needed.

Cash Flow

Positive

Ryanair's cash flow statement shows robust operating cash flow, significantly exceeding net income, which suggests strong cash-generating ability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating effective capital expenditure management. Despite fluctuations in free cash flow growth, the company has managed to maintain positive free cash flow in TTM 2024.

TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
13.82B	13.44B	10.78B	4.80B	1.64B	8.49B
	Gross Profit
3.42B	3.88B	3.04B	791.10M	-66.90M	2.45B
	EBIT
1.71B	2.06B	1.44B	-339.60M	-839.40M	1.13B
	EBITDA
2.48B	3.06B	2.28B	325.30M	-467.90M	1.82B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.66B	1.92B	1.31B	-240.80M	-1.02B	648.70M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.75B	4.11B	4.66B	3.12B	3.77B	3.16B
	Total Assets
16.37B	17.18B	16.41B	12.33B	14.75B	13.25B
	Total Debt
2.70B	2.75B	4.12B	5.43B	4.21B	3.64B
	Net Debt
-51.40M	-1.13B	516.90M	2.78B	1.64B	1.97B
	Total Liabilities
8.20B	9.56B	10.76B	7.68B	9.78B	8.04B
	Stockholders Equity
8.17B	7.61B	5.64B	4.65B	4.97B	5.21B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.42B	766.00M	1.98B	-2.74B	910.50M	423.20M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.97B	3.16B	3.89B	-2.45B	2.11B	2.06B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.17B	-1.56B	-1.90B	937.10M	-918.10M	-1.02B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.61B	-1.33B	-1.05B	1.62B	-297.40M	-883.40M

Ryanair Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price56.24

Price Trends

50DMA

50.43

Positive

100DMA

48.30

Positive

200DMA

46.12

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.62

Positive

RSI

59.61

Neutral

STOCH

36.27

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYAAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 56.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.01, above the 50-day MA of 50.43, and above the 200-day MA of 46.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RYAAY.

Ryanair Holdings Risk Analysis

Ryanair Holdings disclosed 10 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ryanair Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ryanair Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAL	79 Outperform	$24.17B	6.75	33.57%	―	5.31%	35.95%
DAL	78 Outperform	$30.71B	8.34	27.52%	1.27%	4.91%	-27.21%
RYAAY	73 Outperform	$28.53B	17.58	22.41%	1.68%	3.12%	-13.82%
PAC	73 Outperform	$11.60B	25.11	36.66%	3.73%	-2.56%	-14.94%
LUV	68 Neutral	$18.35B	38.24	5.63%	2.27%	3.26%	27.77%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$4.50B	12.26	5.40%	3.65%	4.17%	-12.02%
AAL	61 Neutral	$6.84B	11.97	-21.27%	―	1.92%	36.07%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

RYAAY

Ryanair Holdings

56.24

9.82

21.15%

DAL

Delta Air Lines

49.46

0.33

0.67%

PAC

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico

228.81

75.18

48.94%

LUV

Southwest Airlines

32.20

4.10

14.59%

UAL

United Airlines Holdings

78.52

28.16

55.92%

AAL

American Airlines

10.90

-0.54

-4.72%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.