American Airlines (AAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.72B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 70.53M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 1.50%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 133,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 82
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.95
• Shares Outstanding: 659,828,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 59,984,617
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 70,527,454
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.38
• 1Y Price Target: $13.18
• Price Target Upside: 4.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(11.38% Upside)

American Airlines' overall score reflects strong revenue recovery and operational efficiency gains, offset by high leverage and negative equity risks. Positive technical indicators and strategic growth initiatives are tempered by domestic revenue challenges and potential short-term losses.

Positive Factors

Corporate Demand

Management was more optimistic about corporate demand compared to peers, highlighting an increase in managed business revenue.

Market Position

American Airlines Group holds a dominant share of the US domestic market with an expansive route network, providing a wide range of travel options and facilitating seamless global connections.

Negative Factors

Financial Leverage

High financial leverage remains an obstacle for AAL's share price re-rating, restricting expansion opportunities and fleet modernisation.

Macroeconomic Environment

Macroeconomic weakness could curb discretionary spending on travel, as rising unemployment and higher cost of living may lead households to cut back on travel spending.

American Airlines Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a mainline fleet of 865 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

American Airlines generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for passenger travel, which contributes a significant portion of its earnings. The airline also earns money from cargo services, which involve transporting goods and freight. Additional revenue streams include ancillary fees for services such as checked baggage, seat selection, and in-flight purchases. The company benefits from its loyalty program, AAdvantage, which drives repeat business and partnerships with hotels, car rental companies, and other travel-related services. Moreover, American Airlines engages in co-branded credit card partnerships, further enhancing its revenue through transaction fees and customer spending. The airline's financial performance is also influenced by factors such as fuel prices, operational efficiency, and demand fluctuations in the travel industry.

American Airlines Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Airlines shows improving revenues and strong cash flows but faces significant challenges with high leverage and low profitability. The income statement indicates better margins, and cash flow is strong, yet the negative equity in the balance sheet poses substantial financial risks.

Income Statement

American Airlines' TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 23.28%, with a net profit margin of 1.26%. Revenue growth from 2022 to 2023 was robust at about 7.79%, indicating recovery from the pandemic lows. However, profitability remains a challenge with relatively low net margins, although there is improvement compared to previous years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a negative stockholders' equity, indicative of high leverage and potential risk. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, but the company carries significant debt relative to its assets. The equity ratio is negative, further emphasizing financial instability and high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics show strength in operating cash flow and free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow growing by approximately 9.02% from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 6.22, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.21B	52.79B	48.97B	29.88B	17.34B
Gross Profit	16.69B	11.81B	9.04B	27.00M	-7.60B
EBITDA	5.01B	5.20B	4.13B	1.59B	-7.86B
Net Income	846.00M	822.00M	127.00M	-1.99B	-8.88B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	61.78B	63.06B	64.72B	66.47B	62.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.98B	7.58B	9.81B	13.29B	6.86B
Total Debt	37.54B	40.66B	42.01B	44.50B	39.27B
Total Liabilities	65.76B	68.26B	70.52B	73.81B	68.88B
Stockholders Equity	-3.98B	-5.20B	-5.80B	-7.34B	-6.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.30B	1.21B	-733.00M	496.00M	-8.50B
Operating Cash Flow	3.98B	3.80B	2.17B	704.00M	-6.54B
Investing Cash Flow	-968.00M	-502.00M	636.00M	-5.98B	-4.34B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.79B	-3.21B	-2.63B	5.29B	10.99B

American Airlines Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.04, above the 50-day MA of 11.77, and below the 200-day MA of 13.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AAL.

American Airlines Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAL	82 Outperform	$33.08B	10.00	27.70%	―	4.23%	13.13%
DAL	80 Outperform	$39.50B	8.78	30.07%	1.08%	3.01%	-0.90%
LTM	72 Outperform	$13.71B	11.68	161.29%	2.23%	5.64%	63.23%
Sector *	71 Outperform	¥269.83B	15.10	8.31%	2.77%	6.08%	11.04%
LUV	64 Neutral	$16.59B	47.50	4.30%	2.31%	1.64%	284.24%
AAL	62 Neutral	$8.72B	16.46	-21.27%	―	1.50%	―
JBLU	52 Neutral	$1.92B	―	-15.12%	―	-1.90%	61.06%

American Airlines Corporate Events

American Airlines Updates Bylaws for Governance Modernization

On August 6, 2025, American Airlines Group Inc.’s Board of Directors approved amendments to the company’s bylaws, effective immediately. These changes include updates to procedural mechanics and disclosure requirements for shareholder nominations and proposals, enhancements to forum selection requirements, and modernization of corporate governance practices. The amendments aim to align with current market practices and provide the Board with greater flexibility in managing shareholder meetings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Airlines stock, see the AAL Stock Forecast page.

American Airlines Reports Record Q2 Revenue and Income

On July 24, 2025, American Airlines reported its second-quarter financial results, showcasing a record revenue of $14.4 billion and a GAAP net income of $599 million. The company highlighted its strong performance in premium cabin demand and the positive growth of its AAdvantage loyalty program. Despite a 36% increase in disruptive operational events due to storm activity, American Airlines demonstrated resilience and continued to enhance customer experience and operational reliability. The company also provided an outlook for the third quarter and full year 2025, expecting an adjusted loss per share for the third quarter and a range of adjusted earnings for the full year, contingent on domestic market demand.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Airlines stock, see the AAL Stock Forecast page.

American Airlines Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 11, 2025, American Airlines Group Inc. stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of directors saw the approval of various nominees to the board, while KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, the stockholders approved executive compensation and an amendment to the Tax Benefit Preservation Plan. However, a proposal to end the company’s participation in the Human Rights Campaign’s Corporate Equality Index was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Airlines stock, see the AAL Stock Forecast page.

American Airlines Secures $1 Billion Refinancing Deal

On May 28, 2025, American Airlines and AAdvantage Loyalty IP Ltd. secured $1.0 billion through a Third Amendment to refinance near-term maturities. This financial move involves incremental term loans with a maturity date of May 28, 2032, and aims to fund reserve accounts, provide intercompany loans, and support general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, thereby enhancing the company’s financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Airlines stock, see the AAL Stock Forecast page.