American Airlines (AAL)
NASDAQ:AAL
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American Airlines
(NASDAQ:AAL)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-7.24% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (high leverage/negative equity, thin and volatile profitability, and uneven free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these, management’s 2026 outlook targets improved earnings, >$2B free cash flow, and continued debt reduction, but valuation (P/E ~25.6) looks less compelling given recent earnings volatility.
Positive Factors
Stable, high revenue base
A large, stable revenue base around $49–$55B provides durable scale benefits: it spreads fixed costs across a big network, sustains ancillary and cargo revenue streams, and supports bargaining power with suppliers and distribution partners over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
Very high absolute debt and persistent negative equity constrain strategic flexibility and increase sensitivity to downturns. A fragile capital base raises refinancing and covenant risk, limiting the company's ability to absorb cyclical shocks or pursue opportunistic investments without external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable, high revenue base
A large, stable revenue base around $49–$55B provides durable scale benefits: it spreads fixed costs across a big network, sustains ancillary and cargo revenue streams, and supports bargaining power with suppliers and distribution partners over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
American Airlines (AAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)75.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.6
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth1.27%
EPS Growth118.64%
CountryUS
Employees133,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding660,304,570
10 Day Avg. Volume48,684,523
30 Day Avg. Volume75,001,603
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)-2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-14.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.39Price Target Upside35.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$61.00B
American Airlines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, ...
How the Company Makes Money
American Airlines primarily makes money by selling air transportation and related services. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue from tickets sold across its network in multiple cabin products (e.g., premium cabins and main cabin) and f...
American Airlines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Passenger Miles
Measures the total distance flown by paying passengers, indicating overall demand and revenue potential from passenger services.
Measures the total distance flown by paying passengers, indicating overall demand and revenue potential from passenger services.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Airlines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive long-term outlook supported by solid balance sheet progress, fleet and premium-product investments, loyalty and distribution wins (including a strategic Citi cobranded card partnership), and early 2026 booking strength. Near-term results and guidance are tempered by significant one-time disruptions — notably the unprecedented winter storm Fern (over 9,000 cancellations) and a government shutdown that reduced revenue by ~$325 million — plus regional revenue pressure in Latin America and slight Pacific softness. Management expects to absorb storm impacts, deliver incremental efficiencies ($250M in 2026), generate >$2B free cash flow, and hit its debt target a year early, driving a return to stronger profitability across 2026.Positive Updates
Improved Booking Trends and Early 2026 Momentum
System-wide revenue intakes for the first three weeks of 2026 are up double digits year over year; January bookings strengthened meaningfully after softer late-Q4 bookings.
Negative Updates
Historic Weather Disruption (Winter Storm Fern)
Over 9,000 flight cancellations across multiple days (largest weather-related operational disruption in company history); company expects at least two more days of elevated cancellations and estimates a $150–$200 million revenue impact to Q1 and ~1.5 points of CASM impact from the storm.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Booking Trends and Early 2026 Momentum
System-wide revenue intakes for the first three weeks of 2026 are up double digits year over year; January bookings strengthened meaningfully after softer late-Q4 bookings.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
American’s guidance for 2026 assumes first-quarter capacity up 3–5% year‑over‑year (inclusive of ~1.5 points of impact from Winter Storm Fern), first‑quarter revenue up 7–10% (with an estimated $150–$200 million revenue hit from Fern), and first‑quarter CASM ex‑fuel, ex‑profit‑sharing and net special items up ~3–5% (Fern adds ~1.5 points to CASM); the company guided to an adjusted loss per diluted share for Q1 (range provided) and full‑year adjusted EPS of approximately $1.70–$2.70. For 2026 it expects to take delivery of 55 aircraft, spend $4.0–4.5 billion of CapEx, generate more than $2 billion of free cash flow, and realize an incremental $250 million of operating savings versus 2025 (bringing cumulative operating savings to nearly $1.0 billion since 2023 and working capital improvements to ~ $900 million). Balance‑sheet targets include total debt reduced to $36.5 billion in 2025 (a $2.1 billion reduction) with a goal to be below $35 billion a year early in 2026, and the company reiterated fleet and premium growth plans (international‑capable fleet from 139 to 200 by decade end, lie‑flat seats +50% by 2030, substantial premium‑seat growth including 10 A321XLRs and full utilization of 11 premium 787‑9s and a ~20% premium seat increase on retrofitted 777‑300s).American Airlines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 54.63B | 54.21B | 52.79B | 48.97B | 29.88B |
| Gross Profit | 10.47B | 11.46B | 11.81B | 9.04B | 27.00M |
| EBITDA | 3.88B | 5.01B | 5.20B | 4.13B | 1.59B |
| Net Income | 111.00M | 846.00M | 822.00M | 127.00M | -1.99B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 61.77B | 61.78B | 63.06B | 64.72B | 66.47B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.57B | 6.98B | 7.58B | 8.96B | 12.43B |
| Total Debt | 35.97B | 37.54B | 40.66B | 43.69B | 46.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 65.50B | 65.76B | 68.26B | 70.52B | 73.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | -3.73B | -3.98B | -5.20B | -5.80B | -7.34B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -680.00M | 1.30B | 1.21B | -733.00M | 496.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.10B | 3.98B | 3.80B | 2.17B | 704.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.89B | -968.00M | -502.00M | 636.00M | -5.98B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.05B | -2.79B | -3.21B | -2.63B | 5.29B |
American Airlines Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.32
Price Trends
12.26
Negative
13.50
Negative
12.91
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Negative
50.10
Neutral
60.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.78, below the 50-day MA of 12.26, and below the 200-day MA of 12.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AAL.
American Airlines Risk Analysis
American Airlines disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Airlines reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Airlines Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $14.51B | 8.01 | 135.39% | 3.50% | 6.81% | 58.22% | |
73 Outperform | $31.88B | 269.96 | 27.85% | 1.37% | 14.75% | 71.73% | |
72 Outperform | $44.56B | -37.50 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 4.33% | -1.58% | |
68 Neutral | $31.18B | 10.91 | 24.13% | ― | 4.24% | 20.29% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $19.43B | 50.61 | 5.33% | 1.73% | 0.65% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $7.47B | 25.57 | -2.76% | ― | 1.27% | 118.64% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AAL
American Airlines
11.32
1.74
18.16%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
67.82
28.01
70.35%
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings
62.36
18.36
41.73%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
39.56
14.51
57.91%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
96.40
30.71
46.75%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
53.20
24.27
83.89%
American Airlines Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American Airlines Adds Mary Dillon to Board of Directors
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
On March 24, 2026, American Airlines Group Inc. announced that veteran consumer and marketing executive Mary Dillon has been elected to its board of directors, where she will serve on the Compensation Committee and the Corporate Governance and Pub...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Airlines Lifts Q1 Revenue Outlook Amid Cost Pressures
Negative
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, American Airlines updated investors at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference with revised first-quarter 2026 guidance, citing stronger-than-expected demand driven by its commercial initiatives and a supportive demand environmen...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
American Airlines Expands and Extends Core Credit Facilities
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 5, 2026, American Airlines and American Airlines Group Inc. amended several major revolving credit agreements, increasing their combined revolving commitments from $3.0 billion to $3.11 billion and extending maturities from June 4, 2029, ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Airlines Posts Record 2025 Revenue Amid Operational Disruptions
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On Jan. 27, 2026, American Airlines reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $14.0 billion and record full-year 2025 revenue of $54.6 billion, despite an estimated $325 million revenue hit from a government shutdown, posting GAAP net income ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.