American Airlines Group Inc (AAL)
NASDAQ:AAL
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American Airlines
(NASDAQ:AAL)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(13.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/12/26
The score is held back primarily by high leverage/negative equity and fragile profitability despite an operational recovery and positive free cash flow. Technicals are moderately constructive with price above key moving averages, while valuation is weak due to a high P/E and no dividend support. Earnings-call guidance points to strong revenue momentum and some de-risking progress, but fuel and cost uncertainty keep near-term outcomes uneven.
Positive Factors
Sustained top-line growth and premium demand
Consistent double‑digit revenue growth and record weekly intake demonstrate durable demand recovery and commercial traction. Higher premium cabin and Atlantic strength support higher-yield mix, making revenue less reliant on deep-discount leisure fares and improving long‑term revenue per seat economics.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and negative equity
Elevated debt and negative shareholders' equity materially constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing and covenant risk. In adverse demand or fuel scenarios, the weak equity cushion limits the company’s ability to absorb shocks or pursue opportunistic investments without raising costly capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained top-line growth and premium demand
Consistent double‑digit revenue growth and record weekly intake demonstrate durable demand recovery and commercial traction. Higher premium cabin and Atlantic strength support higher-yield mix, making revenue less reliant on deep-discount leisure fares and improving long‑term revenue per seat economics.
Read all positive factors
American Airlines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Passenger Miles
Measures the total distance flown by paying passengers, indicating overall demand and revenue potential from passenger services.
Measures the total distance flown by paying passengers, indicating overall demand and revenue potential from passenger services.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Airlines (AAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)75.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)49.0
Beta (1Y)1.32
Revenue Growth3.33%
EPS Growth-70.60%
CountryUS
Employees133,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding661,385,130
10 Day Avg. Volume99,014,609
30 Day Avg. Volume75,551,045
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)-2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-14.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.75Price Target Upside23.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$62.38B
American Airlines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Airlines Group Inc. functions as a prominent network air carrier, delivering scheduled air transportation for both passengers and freight. Its operations are anchored by key hubs located in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angel...
How the Company Makes Money
American Airlines makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related travel services. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue from ticket sales across its network; pricing varies by cabin/service class (e.g., premium cabins vs...
American Airlines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial momentum — double‑digit revenue growth, robust premium and corporate demand, record loyalty and card metrics, margin improvement, and tangible balance sheet progress — but was tempered by a large, industry‑wide fuel headwind (>$4B YoY), storm impacts (~$320M), and near‑term cost and capacity pressures. Management provided constructive guidance (Q2 revenue growth ~13.5%–16.5%, Q2 EPS -$0.20 to +$0.20; full‑year midpoint EPS $0.35) and emphasized levers to recapture fuel costs through fares and capacity discipline while highlighting ongoing operational and product investments.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue grew 10.8% year-over-year in Q1 with the company recording the 9 highest weekly revenue intake weeks in its history; Q2 revenue is expected to grow approximately 13.5%–16.5% (company cited ~15% guidance).
Negative Updates
Significant Fuel Headwind
Jet fuel increased total fuel expense by over $4 billion YoY; Q1 included a $400M increase versus the forward curve in January and management expects ~ $4/gal fuel in Q2 — prompting partial capacity reductions and fare pass-through actions.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue grew 10.8% year-over-year in Q1 with the company recording the 9 highest weekly revenue intake weeks in its history; Q2 revenue is expected to grow approximately 13.5%–16.5% (company cited ~15% guidance).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
American's guidance and results were wide-ranging: Q1 revenue grew 10.8% (including nine record revenue‑intake weeks) but reported an adjusted loss per diluted share of $0.40 (ex‑special items), with pretax margin up ~2 points YoY despite a $320M storm revenue hit and a $400M incremental fuel cost versus the January curve; domestic PRASM rose 6.6% and unit cost ex‑specials, fuel and profit sharing was up 5.2% (Q1 CASM‑ex was pressured ~2 points by storms). For Q2 they expect revenue growth roughly 13.5%–16.5% (management often cites ~15%), domestic unit revenue >10%, Atlantic unit revenue strength to continue, capacity about 1 point below initial plans, CASM‑ex up 2%–4% YoY, fuel of ~$4/gal (Apr. 20 curve), and adjusted EPS between a loss of $0.20 and a profit of $0.20; for the full year the midpoint of guidance is $0.35/share (≈flat to 2025) with management expecting to be profitable in 2026 assuming the forward fuel curve, even with fuel expense up over $4B YoY. They also reiterated operational and balance‑sheet metrics: 49 aircraft deliveries this year (vs. 55 prior), CapEx ≈ $4B (down ≈$300M), nearly $11B available liquidity, >$27B unencumbered assets/first‑lien capacity, total debt $34.7B (down $1.8B in the quarter), and over $200M of incremental savings in 2026 (≈$1B total annual operating savings to date); loyalty and premium metrics included AAdvantage enrollments +25% YoY and co‑brand card spend +9%, with paid business/premium‑economy loads ~10 points higher vs. 2019.American Airlines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 55.99B | 54.63B | 54.21B | 52.79B | 48.97B | 29.88B |
| Gross Profit | 12.21B | 10.47B | 11.46B | 11.81B | 9.04B | 27.00M |
| EBITDA | 4.16B | 3.88B | 5.01B | 5.20B | 4.13B | 1.59B |
| Net Income | 202.00M | 111.00M | 846.00M | 822.00M | 127.00M | -1.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 63.74B | 61.77B | 61.78B | 63.06B | 64.72B | 66.47B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.29B | 6.57B | 6.98B | 7.58B | 8.96B | 12.43B |
| Total Debt | 34.89B | 35.97B | 37.54B | 40.66B | 43.69B | 46.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 67.81B | 65.50B | 65.76B | 68.26B | 70.52B | 73.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | -4.08B | -3.73B | -3.98B | -5.20B | -5.80B | -7.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.10B | -680.00M | 1.30B | 1.21B | -733.00M | 496.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.87B | 3.10B | 3.98B | 3.80B | 2.17B | 704.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.02B | -1.89B | -968.00M | -502.00M | 636.00M | -5.98B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.78B | -1.05B | -2.79B | -3.21B | -2.63B | 5.29B |
American Airlines Technical Analysis
Positive
12.78
Price Trends
12.70
Positive
12.67
Positive
13.09
Positive
Market Momentum
0.45
Negative
63.94
Neutral
70.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.78, above the 50-day MA of 12.70, and below the 200-day MA of 13.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AAL.
American Airlines Risk Analysis
American Airlines disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Airlines reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Airlines Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $53.76B | 12.10 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 5.24% | 20.93% | |
72 Outperform | $36.55B | 10.30 | 24.91% | ― | 4.73% | 1.55% | |
68 Neutral | $28.96B | 12.16 | 24.66% | 1.37% | 19.66% | 49.49% | |
64 Neutral | $14.74B | 9.10 | 126.90% | 3.50% | 16.19% | 62.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $21.65B | 27.72 | 10.67% | 1.73% | 4.72% | 72.71% | |
50 Neutral | $9.69B | 49.03 | -5.17% | ― | 3.33% | -70.60% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AAL
American Airlines
14.98
4.08
37.43%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
83.06
34.19
69.94%
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings
60.33
4.71
8.47%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
45.47
14.04
44.69%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
115.52
37.00
47.12%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
53.25
15.67
41.69%
American Airlines Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
American Airlines Investors Approve Expanded Incentive Award Plan
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 10, 2026, American Airlines Group secured shareholder approval for an amended and restated 2023 Incentive Award Plan, increasing the share pool by 16.5 million common shares and allowing cert...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
American Airlines Refinances Term Loans, Extends Debt Maturities
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, American Airlines, Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. amended their existing Amended and Restated Credit and Guaranty Agreement, refinancing in full the prior term loans and incurring new 2026 Term Loans totaling about $1.85 bi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Airlines Posts Record Q1 Revenue Amid Ongoing Loss
Neutral
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, American Airlines reported first-quarter 2026 results showing record revenue of $13.9 billion but a GAAP net loss of $382 million, or $0.58 per share, and an adjusted net loss of $267 million. The carrier ended the quarter with ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American Airlines Adds Mary Dillon to Board of Directors
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
On March 24, 2026, American Airlines Group Inc. announced that veteran consumer and marketing executive Mary Dillon has been elected to its board of directors, where she will serve on the Compensation Committee and the Corporate Governance and Pub...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Airlines Lifts Q1 Revenue Outlook Amid Cost Pressures
Negative
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, American Airlines updated investors at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference with revised first-quarter 2026 guidance, citing stronger-than-expected demand driven by its commercial initiatives and a supportive demand environmen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.