American Airlines (AAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.30B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 53.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 1.27%
• EPS Growth: 118.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 133,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 660,086,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 60,272,907
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 53,354,275
• PEG Ratio: 5.69
• Price to Book (P/B): -2.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.21
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.81
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.91
• 1Y Price Target: $15.70
• Price Target Upside: 0.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.64
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $54.73B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.00 ▼(-3.85% Downside)

American Airlines' stock score reflects a mix of positive technical indicators and moderate valuation, offset by financial challenges. The company's strategic investments and partnerships are promising, but high leverage and profitability issues remain significant concerns.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant growth in corporate revenue indicates strong sales and distribution efforts, enhancing market position and supporting long-term revenue expansion.

Strategic Partnerships

The expanded partnership with Citi is set to significantly boost operating income, leveraging co-branded credit cards and loyalty programs for sustained financial benefits.

Premium Offerings Expansion

Enhancing premium offerings can attract high-value customers, improve customer satisfaction, and increase revenue per passenger, supporting long-term profitability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses a risk to financial stability, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, which could impact long-term operations.

Profitability Challenges

Low profitability margins indicate operational challenges, which may hinder the company's ability to invest in growth and compete effectively over the long term.

Cash Generation Issues

Declining free cash flow growth suggests difficulties in cash generation, potentially affecting the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives sustainably.

American Airlines Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a mainline fleet of 865 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

American Airlines generates revenue primarily through the sale of passenger tickets, which constitutes the largest portion of its income. The airline operates various fare classes and provides additional services such as seat upgrades and priority boarding for increased revenue. Cargo services also contribute significantly to its earnings, offering freight transportation for businesses. Furthermore, American Airlines benefits from ancillary revenue streams, including baggage fees, in-flight sales, and loyalty programs like AAdvantage, which encourages customer loyalty and repeat business. Partnerships with hotels, car rental companies, and credit card firms enhance its revenue through co-branded offers and rewards programs. The airline's financial performance is also influenced by operational efficiency, fleet management, and fuel management strategies.

American Airlines Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Airlines shows moderate revenue growth but faces significant challenges in profitability and financial stability. High leverage and negative equity pose risks, while cash flow efficiency shows some resilience. Improvement in profitability and balance sheet strength is needed.

Income Statement

American Airlines shows a moderate revenue growth rate of 8.1% TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. However, the net profit margin is low at 1.11%, suggesting limited profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also modest, reflecting operational challenges. Overall, while revenue is growing, profitability remains constrained.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant leverage with a high debt-to-equity ratio of -9.10 TTM, indicating financial risk. The negative stockholders' equity suggests potential solvency issues. Return on equity is negative, highlighting profitability challenges. The equity ratio is also negative, reflecting a weak financial position.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 24.32% TTM, indicating cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.15, suggesting moderate cash flow efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively strong at 0.80, indicating decent cash conversion despite the decline in growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.29B	54.21B	52.79B	48.97B	29.88B	17.34B
Gross Profit	10.85B	11.50B	11.82B	9.04B	-422.00M	-7.32B
EBITDA	4.02B	5.01B	5.20B	4.13B	1.59B	-7.86B
Net Income	602.00M	846.00M	822.00M	127.00M	-1.99B	-8.88B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	62.14B	61.78B	63.06B	64.72B	66.47B	62.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.86B	6.98B	7.58B	8.96B	12.43B	6.86B
Total Debt	36.06B	37.54B	40.66B	43.69B	46.18B	41.02B
Total Liabilities	66.10B	65.76B	68.26B	70.52B	73.81B	68.88B
Stockholders Equity	-3.96B	-3.98B	-5.20B	-5.80B	-7.34B	-6.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	882.00M	1.30B	1.21B	-733.00M	292.00M	-8.50B
Operating Cash Flow	3.77B	3.98B	3.80B	2.17B	704.00M	-6.54B
Investing Cash Flow	-638.00M	-968.00M	-502.00M	636.00M	-5.98B	-4.34B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.13B	-2.79B	-3.21B	-2.63B	5.29B	10.99B

American Airlines Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.92, above the 50-day MA of 13.64, and above the 200-day MA of 12.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AAL.

American Airlines Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RYAAY	83 Outperform	$36.48B	14.04	28.67%	1.37%	14.75%	71.73%
DAL	80 Outperform	$46.03B	9.94	28.52%	0.96%	4.33%	-1.58%
UAL	74 Outperform	$36.75B	11.37	25.59%	―	4.24%	20.29%
LTM	67 Neutral	$15.65B	13.02	135.74%	3.50%	6.81%	58.22%
LUV	66 Neutral	$21.49B	63.33	4.22%	1.73%	0.65%	―
AAL	64 Neutral	$10.30B	18.75	―	―	1.27%	118.64%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

American Airlines Corporate Events

American Airlines Reports Record Revenue Amid Challenges

On October 23, 2025, American Airlines reported its third-quarter financial results, revealing a record revenue of $13.7 billion but a GAAP net loss of $114 million. The company remains focused on strategic priorities, including expanding its indirect revenue share and enhancing customer experience with new lounges and aircraft amenities. Despite challenges like weather events and FAA outages, American Airlines maintained operational resilience and aims to reduce its total debt below $35 billion by 2027.