American Airlines (AAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.96B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 54.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 1.92%
• EPS Growth: 36.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 133,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.59
• Shares Outstanding: 659,512,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 54,449,067
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 54,784,821
• PEG Ratio: -0.61
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.91
• 1Y Price Target: $12.67
• Price Target Upside: 19.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(18.15%Upside)

American Airlines' overall score of 61 reflects modest recovery progress with strong cash flow and effective cost management. However, high leverage and profitability challenges, along with mixed technical signals, temper the positive outlook. The recent refinancing deal provides some financial flexibility, but domestic revenue challenges and economic uncertainties remain significant risks.

Positive Factors

Corporate Demand

Management was more optimistic about corporate demand compared to peers, highlighting an increase in managed business revenue.

Earnings Performance

American Airlines reported a better than expected loss per share, outperforming both the analyst's estimate and consensus.

Loyalty Programs

Loyalty programs continue to be a bright spot with significant revenue and co-brand spend increases year-over-year.

Negative Factors

Financial Leverage

High financial leverage remains an obstacle for American Airlines' share price re-rating, restricting its expansion opportunities and fleet modernization.

Macroeconomic Conditions

Macroeconomic weakness could curb discretionary spending on travel, as rising unemployment and higher cost of living may lead households to cut back on travel spending.

Revenue Expectations

American Airlines Group Inc. lowered its Q1 revenue expectations to flat due to a weaker revenue environment and moderating domestic leisure demand.

American Airlines Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a mainline fleet of 865 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

American Airlines makes money primarily through the sale of passenger tickets, which is the largest revenue stream. The company generates additional income from cargo services, providing freight and mail transportation to various destinations. Ancillary services, such as baggage fees, seat upgrades, and in-flight purchases, also contribute to its earnings. Furthermore, American Airlines benefits from partnerships and alliances, such as its membership in the oneworld alliance, which extends its network and offers code-sharing opportunities. The company also leverages its AAdvantage loyalty program, which provides a steady stream of revenue through co-branded credit card agreements and partnerships with other travel-related businesses.

American Airlines Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Airlines shows recovery signs with improving revenues and strong cash flow generation, but struggles with high leverage and profitability issues. The positive cash flow contrasts with the negative equity on the balance sheet, indicating financial instability.

Income Statement

American Airlines' TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 23.28%, with a net profit margin of 1.26%. Revenue growth from 2022 to 2023 was robust at about 7.79%, indicating recovery from the pandemic lows. However, profitability remains a challenge with relatively low net margins, although there is improvement compared to previous years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a negative stockholders' equity, indicative of high leverage and potential risk. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, but the company carries significant debt relative to its assets. The equity ratio is negative, further emphasizing financial instability and high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics show strength in operating cash flow and free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow growing by approximately 9.02% from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 6.22, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
54.19B	54.21B	52.79B	48.97B	29.88B	17.34B
	Gross Profit
12.62B	16.69B	11.81B	9.04B	27.00M	-7.60B
	EBIT
2.34B	2.61B	3.03B	-150.00M	-5.07B	-10.42B
	EBITDA
4.20B	5.01B	5.20B	4.13B	1.59B	-7.86B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
685.00M	846.00M	822.00M	127.00M	-1.99B	-8.88B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.47B	6.98B	7.58B	9.81B	13.29B	6.86B
	Total Assets
62.61B	61.78B	63.06B	64.72B	66.47B	62.01B
	Total Debt
36.60B	37.54B	40.66B	42.01B	44.50B	39.27B
	Net Debt
35.77B	36.74B	40.09B	41.57B	44.22B	39.02B
	Total Liabilities
67.12B	65.76B	68.26B	70.52B	73.81B	68.88B
	Stockholders Equity
-4.51B	-3.98B	-5.20B	-5.80B	-7.34B	-6.87B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
3.52B	1.30B	1.21B	-733.00M	496.00M	-8.50B
	Operating Cash Flow
4.26B	3.98B	3.80B	2.17B	704.00M	-6.54B
	Investing Cash Flow
-656.00M	-968.00M	-502.00M	636.00M	-5.98B	-4.34B
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.38B	-2.79B	-3.21B	-2.63B	5.29B	10.99B

American Airlines Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.58
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.25, below the 50-day MA of 10.73, and below the 200-day MA of 13.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AAL.

American Airlines Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAL	79 Outperform	$24.06B	6.77	33.57%	―	5.31%	35.95%
DAL	78 Outperform	$30.90B	8.39	27.52%	1.26%	4.91%	-27.21%
LTM	71 Outperform	$11.34B	10.47	138.69%	1.71%	6.41%	49.58%
LUV	68 Neutral	$17.76B	37.00	5.63%	2.31%	3.26%	27.77%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$4.46B	12.11	5.38%	5.02%	4.17%	-11.82%
AAL	61 Neutral	$6.96B	12.21	-21.27%	―	1.92%	36.07%
JBLU	43 Neutral	$1.49B	―	-11.30%	―	-3.02%	66.90%

American Airlines Corporate Events

American Airlines Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 11, 2025, American Airlines Group Inc. stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of directors saw the approval of various nominees to the board, while KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, the stockholders approved executive compensation and an amendment to the Tax Benefit Preservation Plan. However, a proposal to end the company’s participation in the Human Rights Campaign’s Corporate Equality Index was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Airlines stock, see the AAL Stock Forecast page.

American Airlines Secures $1 Billion Refinancing Deal

On May 28, 2025, American Airlines and AAdvantage Loyalty IP Ltd. secured $1.0 billion through a Third Amendment to refinance near-term maturities. This financial move involves incremental term loans with a maturity date of May 28, 2032, and aims to fund reserve accounts, provide intercompany loans, and support general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, thereby enhancing the company’s financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Airlines stock, see the AAL Stock Forecast page.

American Airlines Reports Q1 Loss Amid Challenges

On April 24, 2025, American Airlines reported a first-quarter revenue of $12.6 billion but faced a GAAP net loss of $473 million. Despite economic uncertainties and challenges such as the tragic accident of American Eagle Flight 5342, the company remains focused on strengthening its balance sheet and enhancing customer experience. The airline ended the quarter with $10.8 billion in liquidity and reduced its total debt by $1.2 billion. American Airlines is optimistic about its future, supported by a strong operational performance and strategic partnerships, including an expanded collaboration with Citi starting in 2026.

American Airlines Updates Loan Agreement and Debt Settlement

On March 24, 2025, American Airlines and AAdvantage Loyalty IP Ltd. amended their Term Loan Credit and Guaranty Agreement, replacing $2.275 billion in term loans with new loans of the same amount but with revised interest rates and reduced principal amortization. Additionally, American Airlines announced it will settle its 6.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025 entirely in cash, updating its forecast for shares outstanding for calculating earnings per share for 2025.