American Airlines (AAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.58B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 62.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: 1.50%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 133,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.95
• Shares Outstanding: 659,828,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 73,891,002
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 62,327,691
• PEG Ratio: -0.78
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.16
• 1Y Price Target: $13.70
• Price Target Upside: 19.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(4.44%Upside)

American Airlines' score is driven by a strong recovery in revenues and operational efficiency, tempered by high leverage and negative equity risks. Mixed technical signals and a reasonable valuation suggest moderate investor confidence, while strategic initiatives provide optimism despite operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Corporate Demand

Management was more optimistic about corporate demand compared to peers, highlighting an increase in managed business revenue.

Loyalty Programs

Loyalty programs continue to be a bright spot with significant revenue and co-brand spend increases year-over-year.

Market Position

American Airlines Group holds a dominant share of the US domestic market with an expansive route network, providing a wide range of travel options and facilitating seamless global connections.

Negative Factors

Financial Leverage

High financial leverage remains an obstacle for AAL's share price re-rating, restricting expansion opportunities and fleet modernisation.

Macroeconomic Factors

Macroeconomic weakness could curb discretionary spending on travel, as rising unemployment and higher cost of living may lead households to cut back on travel spending.

Revenue Expectations

American Airlines Group Inc. lowered its Q1 revenue expectations to flat due to a weaker revenue environment and moderating domestic leisure demand.

American Airlines Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is a major U.S.-based airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. It operates one of the largest commercial airlines in the world, providing passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company offers a comprehensive range of domestic and international flights, serving hundreds of destinations across various continents. American Airlines is a member of the oneworld alliance, which enhances its global reach and connectivity.

How the Company Makes Money

American Airlines makes money primarily through the sale of passenger tickets, which is the largest revenue stream. The company generates additional income from cargo services, providing freight and mail transportation to various destinations. Ancillary services, such as baggage fees, seat upgrades, and in-flight purchases, also contribute to its earnings. Furthermore, American Airlines benefits from partnerships and alliances, such as its membership in the oneworld alliance, which extends its network and offers code-sharing opportunities. The company also leverages its AAdvantage loyalty program, which provides a steady stream of revenue through co-branded credit card agreements and partnerships with other travel-related businesses.

American Airlines Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Airlines shows improving revenues and strong cash flows but faces significant challenges with high leverage and low profitability. The income statement indicates better margins, and cash flow is strong, yet the negative equity in the balance sheet poses substantial financial risks.

Income Statement

American Airlines' TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 23.28%, with a net profit margin of 1.26%. Revenue growth from 2022 to 2023 was robust at about 7.79%, indicating recovery from the pandemic lows. However, profitability remains a challenge with relatively low net margins, although there is improvement compared to previous years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a negative stockholders' equity, indicative of high leverage and potential risk. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, but the company carries significant debt relative to its assets. The equity ratio is negative, further emphasizing financial instability and high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics show strength in operating cash flow and free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow growing by approximately 9.02% from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 6.22, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.21B	52.79B	48.97B	29.88B	17.34B
Gross Profit	16.69B	11.81B	9.04B	27.00M	-7.60B
EBITDA	5.01B	5.20B	4.13B	1.59B	-7.86B
Net Income	846.00M	822.00M	127.00M	-1.99B	-8.88B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	61.78B	63.06B	64.72B	66.47B	62.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.98B	7.58B	9.81B	13.29B	6.86B
Total Debt	37.54B	40.66B	42.01B	44.50B	39.27B
Total Liabilities	65.76B	68.26B	70.52B	73.81B	68.88B
Stockholders Equity	-3.98B	-5.20B	-5.80B	-7.34B	-6.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.30B	1.21B	-733.00M	496.00M	-8.50B
Operating Cash Flow	3.98B	3.80B	2.17B	704.00M	-6.54B
Investing Cash Flow	-968.00M	-502.00M	636.00M	-5.98B	-4.34B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.79B	-3.21B	-2.63B	5.29B	10.99B

American Airlines Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.95, below the 50-day MA of 11.53, and below the 200-day MA of 13.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AAL.

American Airlines Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAL	80 Outperform	$28.59B	8.85	27.70%	―	4.23%	13.13%
DAL	79 Outperform	$34.74B	7.72	30.07%	1.20%	3.01%	-0.90%
LTM	72 Outperform	$13.20B	11.17	161.29%	2.33%	5.64%	63.23%
Sector *	61 Neutral	C$6.51B	7.64	2.76%	2.72%	6.06%	-10.89%
AAL	59 Neutral	$7.58B	14.77	-21.27%	―	1.50%	―
LUV	58 Neutral	$16.24B	46.51	4.30%	2.33%	1.64%	284.24%
JBLU	51 Neutral	$1.61B	―	-15.12%	―	-1.90%	61.06%

American Airlines Corporate Events

American Airlines Reports Record Q2 Revenue and Income

On July 24, 2025, American Airlines reported its second-quarter financial results, showcasing a record revenue of $14.4 billion and a GAAP net income of $599 million. The company highlighted its strong performance in premium cabin demand and the positive growth of its AAdvantage loyalty program. Despite a 36% increase in disruptive operational events due to storm activity, American Airlines demonstrated resilience and continued to enhance customer experience and operational reliability. The company also provided an outlook for the third quarter and full year 2025, expecting an adjusted loss per share for the third quarter and a range of adjusted earnings for the full year, contingent on domestic market demand.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Airlines stock, see the AAL Stock Forecast page.

American Airlines Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 11, 2025, American Airlines Group Inc. stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of directors saw the approval of various nominees to the board, while KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, the stockholders approved executive compensation and an amendment to the Tax Benefit Preservation Plan. However, a proposal to end the company’s participation in the Human Rights Campaign’s Corporate Equality Index was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Airlines stock, see the AAL Stock Forecast page.

American Airlines Secures $1 Billion Refinancing Deal

On May 28, 2025, American Airlines and AAdvantage Loyalty IP Ltd. secured $1.0 billion through a Third Amendment to refinance near-term maturities. This financial move involves incremental term loans with a maturity date of May 28, 2032, and aims to fund reserve accounts, provide intercompany loans, and support general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, thereby enhancing the company’s financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Airlines stock, see the AAL Stock Forecast page.