United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
NASDAQ:UAL
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United Airlines Holdings
(NASDAQ:UAL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$105.00
▲(7.50% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/09/26
UAL’s score is driven primarily by improved fundamentals and a positive earnings outlook (profitable operations, solid cash generation, and upbeat 2026 EPS guidance with deleveraging plans). The rating is held back by still-elevated leverage and weaker cash conversion/recent FCF decline, plus a technically mixed chart with negative MACD and price below longer-term moving averages. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, though there is no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained TTM operating cash flow (~$8.4B) and positive free cash flow (~$2.6B) provide durable internal funding for fleet deliveries, customer investments and debt reduction. Strong OCF cushions cyclicality in air travel and supports management’s multi-year deleveraging and capex plans without reliance on equity issuance.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage remains above pre‑pandemic norms and materially amplifies downside risk in an inherently cyclical industry. High absolute debt levels limit strategic optionality, strain liquidity if demand weakens, and make United more exposed to rising rates or unexpected shocks despite recent improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained TTM operating cash flow (~$8.4B) and positive free cash flow (~$2.6B) provide durable internal funding for fleet deliveries, customer investments and debt reduction. Strong OCF cushions cyclicality in air travel and supports management’s multi-year deleveraging and capex plans without reliance on equity issuance.
Read all positive factors
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.59B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.9
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth4.24%
EPS Growth20.29%
CountryUS
Employees109,200
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.10
Shares Outstanding323,430,420
10 Day Avg. Volume7,979,850
30 Day Avg. Volume8,928,863
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.66
Price to Book (P/B)2.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio14.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.47
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$134.31Price Target Upside37.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)9.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$65.89B
United Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The company transports people and cargo through its mainline an...
How the Company Makes Money
UAL primarily generates revenue from providing air transportation and related services. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue: the company sells tickets for scheduled flights across domestic and international routes, earning revenue base...
United Airlines Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Fuel Price
Tracks the cost of fuel per gallon, a major expense for airlines, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
Tracks the cost of fuel per gallon, a major expense for airlines, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnited Airlines Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes strong operational resilience, profitable hubs, disciplined cost control, robust loyalty and premium performance, and a solid balance-sheet trajectory (deleveraging, credit upgrades, free cash flow). Management acknowledged meaningful short-term headwinds (government shutdown, Newark issues, Latin America/Caribbean softness, main-cabin revenue pressure and competitive intensity in certain markets) but provided confident guidance and targets for 2026 while describing guidance as deliberate and conservative. On balance, the positives (EPS growth, record revenues, operational and cost achievements, loyalty strength, and improved leverage) materially outweigh the noted challenges, which are characterized as manageable and addressable in management's view.Positive Updates
Earnings Per Share Resilience and 2026 Guidance
Q4 EPS of $3.10 (within guidance $3.00–$3.50) and full-year 2025 EPS of $10.62, slightly up versus 2024 despite a $0.85 EPS headwind from Newark; Q1 2026 EPS guide $1.00–$1.50 (≈37% improvement vs prior-year quarter at midpoint) and full-year 2026 EPS guide $12–$14 (midpoint >20% growth).
Negative Updates
Government Shutdown and FAA-Directed Capacity Reductions
A U.S. government shutdown led the FAA to temporarily reduce departures at 40 major airports; company cited a roughly $250 million pretax impact to Q4 results and noted cancellations were ~4% of departures during peak periods due to the directives.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings Per Share Resilience and 2026 Guidance
Q4 EPS of $3.10 (within guidance $3.00–$3.50) and full-year 2025 EPS of $10.62, slightly up versus 2024 despite a $0.85 EPS headwind from Newark; Q1 2026 EPS guide $1.00–$1.50 (≈37% improvement vs prior-year quarter at midpoint) and full-year 2026 EPS guide $12–$14 (midpoint >20% growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
United guided Q1 2026 EPS of $1.00–$1.50 (≈37% y/y improvement at the midpoint) and full‑year 2026 EPS of $12–$14 (midpoint >20% growth vs. 2025 EPS $10.62), noting Q4 EPS was $3.10 (within $3.00–$3.50 guidance) despite a ~$250M pretax government‑shutdown hit and a ~$0.85 Newark headwind for the year; they expect over 100 narrowbody and ~20 widebody deliveries in 2026, capital expenditures < $8B (consistent with $7–$9B multiyear guidance), and free cash flow of about $2.7B in 2026 (similar to 2025) with medium‑term free‑cash conversion ≈50% (target ~75% by decade end). Balance sheet targets include net leverage down from 2.2x to <2x in 2026, having paid $1.9B of high‑cost debt, cost of debt ~4.7%, five recent rating upgrades (one notch below investment grade) and $782M of buyback authorization remaining; operating metrics cited: Q4 revenue $15.4B (+4.8% on +6.5% capacity), CASM‑ex +0.4% (Q4 and FY25), premium revenue +12% on +7% capacity, loyalty +9%, and co‑brand remuneration +12% (14% in Q4) with >1M new co‑brand cards added.United Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 59.07B | 57.06B | 53.72B | 44.95B | 24.63B |
| Gross Profit | 37.88B | 19.42B | 15.20B | 10.64B | 721.00M |
| EBITDA | 7.54B | 8.50B | 7.83B | 5.12B | 1.50B |
| Net Income | 3.35B | 3.15B | 2.62B | 737.00M | -1.96B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 76.45B | 74.08B | 71.10B | 67.36B | 68.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.24B | 14.47B | 14.39B | 16.41B | 18.41B |
| Total Debt | 31.04B | 33.63B | 36.74B | 36.43B | 39.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.17B | 61.41B | 61.78B | 60.46B | 63.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.28B | 12.68B | 9.32B | 6.90B | 5.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.56B | 3.83B | -260.00M | 1.25B | -40.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.43B | 9.45B | 6.91B | 6.07B | 2.07B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.35B | -2.65B | -6.11B | -13.83B | -1.67B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.95B | -4.18B | -1.89B | -3.35B | 6.40B |
United Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
97.67
Price Trends
100.78
Negative
104.06
Negative
99.84
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.66
Negative
53.61
Neutral
57.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 97.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.68, below the 50-day MA of 100.78, and below the 200-day MA of 99.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UAL.
United Airlines Holdings Risk Analysis
United Airlines Holdings disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Airlines Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $14.52B | 10.91 | 135.39% | 3.50% | 6.81% | 58.22% | |
72 Outperform | $44.56B | -37.50 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 4.33% | -1.58% | |
68 Neutral | $31.59B | 10.91 | 24.13% | ― | 4.24% | 20.29% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $19.76B | 50.61 | 5.33% | 1.73% | 0.65% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $4.57B | 58.11 | 2.47% | ― | 31.50% | -49.15% | |
46 Neutral | $7.51B | 25.57 | -2.76% | ― | 1.27% | 118.64% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
97.67
32.07
48.89%
ALK
Alaska Air
39.90
-5.86
-12.81%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
67.83
27.45
67.96%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
40.21
14.54
56.64%
AAL
American Airlines
11.37
1.70
17.58%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
53.10
24.98
88.83%
United Airlines Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
United Airlines Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 6, 2026
On February 6, 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. completed a $1 billion public offering of 4.875% Senior Notes due March 1, 2029, guaranteed by its wholly owned subsidiary United Airlines, Inc., with interest payable semi-annually beginning Sep...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
United Airlines Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. completed a public offering of $1 billion in 5.375% senior notes due March 1, 2031, guaranteed by its wholly owned subsidiary United Airlines, Inc., as part of its long-term financing strategy. T...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
United Airlines posts record 2025 results and revenue growth
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
On January 20, 2026, United Airlines reported that its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results beat Wall Street expectations, with full-year diluted EPS rising 8% year over year to $10.20 and adjusted EPS at $10.62, supported by record annual op...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.