United Airlines Holdings (UAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $36.42B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: 4.24%
• EPS Growth: 20.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 109,200
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.10
• Shares Outstanding: 323,430,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,787,006
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,408,195
• PEG Ratio: 1.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.90
• 1Y Price Target: $141.97
• Price Target Upside: 26.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $128.00 ▲(13.69% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by improved fundamentals and constructive earnings guidance (solid profitability and >20% FY2026 EPS growth outlook), tempered by high leverage and weaker recent free-cash-flow conversion. Technicals are supportive (price above major moving averages) but not uniformly strong due to mixed momentum indicators, while valuation is helped by a modest P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue and profitability recovery

United has transitioned from pandemic losses to consistent multi-year profitability and sizable revenue scale. Durable operating margin and record revenues provide recurring cash to fund fleet, hub investments and service upgrades, underpinning long-term network competitiveness.

Premium and loyalty revenue strength

Outperformance in premium cabins and loyalty drives higher-yield, more stable revenue. Growth in co-brand remits and premium demand supports margin resilience, recurring partner cashflows and customer retention, enhancing durable revenue mix and reducing reliance on low-yield leisure fares.

Balance-sheet improvement and deleveraging

Material debt paydown and multiple credit upgrades indicate improving credit profile and lower funded-cost trajectory. Progress toward sub-2x net leverage and positive FCF supports financial flexibility for targeted capex, fleet renewal and strategic investments over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Leverage remains meaningfully above pre-cyclical norms, amplifying earnings volatility and constraining strategic optionality. Elevated debt levels increase vulnerability to demand shocks, limit capacity to absorb cost inflation and slow the pace of buybacks or nonessential investments during downturns.

Weaker free cash flow conversion

FCF has declined materially relative to earnings, reducing internally generated capital for deleveraging and reinvestment. Sub‑optimal cash conversion limits resilience to cyclical shocks, slows progress on leverage targets and constrains durable funding for long‑term product and network upgrades.

Main-cabin unit revenue pressure and regional softness

Persistent unit‑revenue weakness in main cabin and regional markets signals structural competitive and demand pressure that can compress margins long-term. Recovery in premium and loyalty helps, but ongoing TRASM decline and regional softness require capacity rebalancing and may erode returns on added capacity.

United Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The company transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. It also offers catering, ground handling, training, and maintenance services for third parties. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

United Airlines generates revenue primarily through the sale of passenger tickets for air travel, which constitutes the bulk of its income. Additionally, the company earns significant revenue from cargo services, transporting goods and freight across its network. Ancillary revenue streams are also crucial, including fees for checked baggage, seat selection, in-flight services, and loyalty program memberships. United's MileagePlus program allows customers to earn and redeem miles, which not only fosters customer loyalty but also generates revenue through partnerships with hotels, car rental companies, and credit card issuers. The airline's strategic partnerships, including its membership in the Star Alliance, enhance its network reach and provide opportunities for joint marketing and shared revenue, further contributing to its earnings.

United Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has stabilized post-pandemic with solid TTM revenue ($59.1B) and positive margins, but balance-sheet leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~2.19). Cash generation is positive (TTM FCF ~$2.6B) yet weakened meaningfully year over year (FCF down ~31%) with relatively weak cash conversion (~0.40x of net income).

Income Statement

UAL’s earnings profile is solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with revenue of $59.1B and positive profitability (about 5.6% net margin; ~8.3% operating margin). Revenue growth is modest in TTM (~1.2%) after steadier gains in 2023–2024, suggesting the post-recovery growth wave has cooled. A key positive is the clear multi-year turnaround from 2020–2021 losses to consistent profitability since 2022, though margins remain relatively thin versus the volatility and cost pressures typical of airlines.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains the main constraint. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), total debt is ~$26.0B against ~$15.3B of equity (debt-to-equity ~2.19), improved meaningfully from very high leverage in 2021–2022 but still elevated. Profitability on equity is strong (ROE ~24.9% in TTM), yet that strength is partially amplified by leverage. Overall, the balance sheet is improving, but still carries above-average financial risk for downturns or demand shocks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is healthy but has recently softened. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is ~$8.4B and free cash flow is ~$2.6B, but free cash flow declined sharply versus the prior year (about -31%). Free cash flow covers less than half of net income in TTM (roughly 0.40x), indicating earnings are not translating into cash as strongly as investors typically prefer. The positive is that free cash flow is solidly positive in 2022, 2024, and TTM after negative/weak periods earlier in the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	59.07B	57.06B	53.72B	44.95B	24.63B
Gross Profit	37.88B	19.42B	15.20B	10.64B	721.00M
EBITDA	7.54B	8.50B	7.83B	5.12B	1.50B
Net Income	3.35B	3.15B	2.62B	737.00M	-1.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	76.45B	74.08B	71.10B	67.36B	68.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.24B	14.47B	14.39B	16.41B	18.41B
Total Debt	36.45B	33.63B	36.74B	36.43B	39.37B
Total Liabilities	61.17B	61.41B	61.78B	60.46B	63.15B
Stockholders Equity	15.28B	12.68B	9.32B	6.90B	5.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.56B	3.83B	-260.00M	1.25B	-40.00M
Operating Cash Flow	8.43B	9.45B	6.91B	6.07B	2.07B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.35B	-2.65B	-6.11B	-13.83B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.95B	-4.18B	-1.89B	-3.35B	6.40B

United Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 112.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 112.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.19, above the 50-day MA of 111.59, and above the 200-day MA of 97.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UAL.

United Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LTM	77 Outperform	$15.73B	11.45	140.98%	3.50%	6.81%	58.22%
UAL	71 Outperform	$36.42B	11.00	23.99%	―	4.24%	20.29%
DAL	70 Outperform	$45.22B	8.74	27.70%	0.96%	4.33%	-1.58%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
LUV	61 Neutral	$24.88B	64.26	4.82%	1.73%	0.65%	―
ALK	56 Neutral	$6.02B	59.98	2.36%	―	31.50%	-49.15%
AAL	47 Neutral	$8.68B	79.17	―	―	1.27%	118.64%

United Airlines Holdings Corporate Events

United Airlines Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On February 6, 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. completed a $1 billion public offering of 4.875% Senior Notes due March 1, 2029, guaranteed by its wholly owned subsidiary United Airlines, Inc., with interest payable semi-annually beginning September 1, 2026. The notes, issued under an existing indenture, include customary covenants restricting certain liens, mergers, consolidations and major asset transfers, provide for acceleration upon standard events of default, allow optional early redemption by the company on make-whole terms before December 1, 2028 and at par thereafter, and grant investors a right to require repurchase at 101% of principal plus interest upon a qualifying change of control, underscoring United’s continued use of the capital markets to manage its debt profile and funding needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAL) stock is a Buy with a $136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Airlines Holdings stock, see the UAL Stock Forecast page.

United Airlines Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On February 2, 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. completed a public offering of $1 billion in 5.375% senior notes due March 1, 2031, guaranteed by its wholly owned subsidiary United Airlines, Inc., as part of its long-term financing strategy. The notes, which pay interest semi-annually beginning September 1, 2026, are issued under an existing indenture that imposes customary covenants restricting liens, mergers, and major asset transfers, and includes standard events-of-default acceleration provisions, optional redemption features before and after September 1, 2030, and change-of-control protections giving investors the right to put the notes back at 101% of principal, underscoring a typical but investor-protective capital markets transaction for the carrier.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAL) stock is a Buy with a $136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Airlines Holdings stock, see the UAL Stock Forecast page.

United Airlines posts record 2025 results and revenue growth

On January 20, 2026, United Airlines reported that its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results beat Wall Street expectations, with full-year diluted EPS rising 8% year over year to $10.20 and adjusted EPS at $10.62, supported by record annual operating revenue of $59.1 billion, $8.4 billion in operating cash flow and $2.7 billion in free cash flow. The carrier posted its highest quarterly revenue ever in Q4 2025 at $15.4 billion, flew a record 181 million passengers, operated its largest-ever mainline schedule with 303 daily widebody departures, and delivered industry-leading operational reliability with its lowest seat cancellation rate, even as a November government shutdown and customer-first refund policy weighed on pre-tax earnings by about $250 million. United highlighted strong growth in premium, loyalty and Basic Economy revenue streams, continued improvement in customer satisfaction metrics including record Net Promoter Scores, and substantial fleet and product investments, adding 82 new aircraft and refurbishing 119 narrowbodies in 2025, while signaling ongoing network and customer-experience expansion in 2026 through large-scale deliveries of new narrowbody and Boeing 787 aircraft and major hub upgrades in Washington Dulles and Houston.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAL) stock is a Buy with a $145.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Airlines Holdings stock, see the UAL Stock Forecast page.