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United Airlines Holdings
(NASDAQ:UAL)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$146.00
▲(43.42% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/25/26
UAL scores well on improving financial performance and strong cash generation, supported by a clear post-2021 earnings recovery. Technicals are constructive with strong upside trend, though momentum indicators suggest near-term overbought risk. Valuation appears reasonable on earnings (P/E ~11.6) but lacks dividend support, while the earnings call adds both upside (revenue/premium/loyalty strength, debt paydown) and a meaningful near-term risk from volatile fuel costs and widened guidance.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & deleveraging
Strong free cash flow and active debt reduction materially improve financial flexibility for a capital‑intensive airline. Durable cash generation enables continued fleet investment, liquidity buffer against shocks, and pace of deleveraging that lowers refinancing risk and supports long‑term operational plans.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Elevated absolute debt and a still‑high debt/equity ratio increase sensitivity to cyclical downturns, rising rates, and cost shocks. Despite improvement, leverage limits strategic flexibility, raises interest burden, and prolongs exposure to refinancing and liquidity risk across 2–6 month horizons and beyond.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & deleveraging
Strong free cash flow and active debt reduction materially improve financial flexibility for a capital‑intensive airline. Durable cash generation enables continued fleet investment, liquidity buffer against shocks, and pace of deleveraging that lowers refinancing risk and supports long‑term operational plans.
Read all positive factors
United Airlines Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Fuel Price
Tracks the cost of fuel per gallon, a major expense for airlines, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
Tracks the cost of fuel per gallon, a major expense for airlines, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnited Airlines Holdings (UAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$43.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth4.73%
EPS Growth1.55%
CountryUS
Employees109,200
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.26
Shares Outstanding324,569,730
10 Day Avg. Volume5,749,682
30 Day Avg. Volume5,680,712
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.67
Price to Book (P/B)2.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio14.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$154.11Price Target Upside51.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)9.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$66.99B
United Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, delivers air travel solutions on a global scale. Its vast network extends across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, facilitating t...
How the Company Makes Money
UAL primarily makes money by selling air transportation and related services through several major revenue streams: (1) Passenger revenue: The largest source, generated from selling seats across different fare products and cabins (e.g., economy an...
United Airlines Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong commercial momentum, robust revenue and yield acceleration, premium and loyalty growth, solid operational performance, significant free cash flow generation and decisive balance sheet actions — all supported by a large slate of product and fleet initiatives designed to de‑commoditize the airline. Counterbalancing these positives are a sharp and volatile increase in jet fuel costs (a $340M headwind in Q1), near‑term CASM‑ex pressure, proactive capacity reductions that reduce near‑term volume, regulatory constraints at O'Hare, and widened guidance reflecting scenario risk. On balance, the operational and financial strengths, material revenue momentum and clear plans to pass through fuel costs and protect margins outweigh the near‑term challenges and uncertainty.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Consolidated total operating revenue rose 10.6% year‑over‑year to a record first quarter of $14.6 billion; TRASM increased 6.9% year‑over‑year and all regions reported positive PRASM.
Negative Updates
Significant Jet Fuel Cost Shock
Jet fuel prices roughly doubled, producing an incremental fuel bill of about $340 million in Q1 and driving immediate cost pressure across the network; management noted elevated and volatile fuel averaging an assumed ~$4.30/gallon for Q2 guidance.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Consolidated total operating revenue rose 10.6% year‑over‑year to a record first quarter of $14.6 billion; TRASM increased 6.9% year‑over‑year and all regions reported positive PRASM.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
United provided a multi-part outlook anchored to the recent jet-fuel shock: Q1 results included EPS of $1.19 (within prior guidance of $1.00–$1.50, +31% YoY), consolidated revenue of $14.6B (+10.6% YoY), TRASM +6.9%, CASM-ex +5.9% YoY and a $340M higher fuel bill; loyalty revenue was +13% and premium revenue +13.6% on a 4.4% capacity increase (premium RASM +8.9%). For 2026 they guide Q2 EPS of $1–$2 (assuming ~ $4.30/gal all‑in fuel), full‑year EPS of $7–$11, and expect double‑digit RASM growth in Q2 and for the full year; they sold 23% of Q2 and 8% of Q3 capacity before the fuel spike, are removing ~5 points of planned capacity for the rest of 2026 (Q3/Q4 capacity now expected flat to +2% vs. prior plans, current summer sell‑in just over +4%) and have already pulled Tel Aviv/Dubai (~1.5 points). Management expects to recapture 40–50% of the fuel increase in Q2, 70–80% in Q3 and 85–100% by Q4 with a goal of 100% pass‑through and a target pretax margin of at least 10% (double‑digit) in 2027; they also highlighted balance‑sheet moves (>$3.1B debt paydown, $2B unsecured bond issuance) and $2.9B free cash flow in Q1.United Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 60.47B | 59.07B | 57.06B | 53.72B | 44.95B | 24.63B |
| Gross Profit | 38.85B | 37.88B | 19.42B | 15.20B | 10.64B | 721.00M |
| EBITDA | 8.69B | 7.54B | 8.50B | 7.83B | 5.12B | 1.50B |
| Net Income | 3.67B | 3.35B | 3.15B | 2.62B | 737.00M | -1.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 80.94B | 76.45B | 74.08B | 71.10B | 67.36B | 68.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.17B | 12.24B | 14.47B | 14.39B | 16.41B | 18.41B |
| Total Debt | 30.97B | 31.04B | 33.63B | 36.74B | 36.43B | 39.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 65.06B | 61.17B | 61.41B | 61.78B | 60.46B | 63.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.88B | 15.28B | 12.68B | 9.32B | 6.90B | 5.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.21B | 2.56B | 3.83B | -260.00M | 1.25B | -40.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.52B | 8.43B | 9.45B | 6.91B | 6.07B | 2.07B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.78B | -6.35B | -2.65B | -6.11B | -13.83B | -1.67B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.44B | -4.95B | -4.18B | -1.89B | -3.35B | 6.40B |
United Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
101.80
Price Trends
106.34
Positive
102.90
Positive
103.22
Positive
Market Momentum
8.56
Negative
72.80
Negative
85.82
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 101.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 119.10, below the 50-day MA of 106.34, and below the 200-day MA of 103.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.80 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UAL.
United Airlines Holdings Risk Analysis
United Airlines Holdings disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Airlines Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $61.14B | 13.45 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 5.24% | 20.93% | |
73 Outperform | $43.86B | 12.00 | 24.91% | ― | 4.73% | 1.55% | |
64 Neutral | $16.06B | 9.49 | 126.90% | 3.50% | 16.19% | 62.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $24.67B | 31.94 | 10.67% | 1.73% | 4.72% | 72.71% | |
52 Neutral | $5.71B | 89.91 | 1.85% | ― | 13.94% | -79.71% | |
50 Neutral | $12.00B | 58.55 | -5.17% | ― | 3.33% | -70.60% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
135.13
52.77
64.07%
ALK
Alaska Air
51.09
0.04
0.08%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
93.06
42.80
85.16%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
50.47
17.02
50.88%
AAL
American Airlines
18.15
6.46
55.26%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
56.91
15.90
38.77%
United Airlines Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
United Airlines Shareholders Back Board, Governance at Meeting
Positive
May 22, 2026
United Airlines Holdings held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 19, 2026, where investors reelected 11 board-nominated directors and union-designated representatives from the Air Line Pilots Association and the International Association of...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
United Airlines Ends Merger Talks, Reaffirms Standalone Strategy
Neutral
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby disclosed that he had recently approached American Airlines about exploring a merger but that American declined to engage, effectively ending the prospect of a deal. Kirby said he believed a combi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
United Airlines Delivers Record Q1 Results and Outlook
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, United Airlines reported first-quarter 2026 results showing a sharp rebound in profitability, with diluted EPS up 85% year over year to $2.14 and total operating revenue up 10.6% to $14.6 billion, helped by 6.9% growth in revenu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.