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United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
NASDAQ:UAL
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United Airlines Holdings (UAL) AI Stock Analysis

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UAL

United Airlines Holdings

(NASDAQ:UAL)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$102.00
▲(1.06% Upside)
UAL's overall score reflects its strong financial recovery and technical momentum. Its operational excellence and strategic initiatives are significant strengths, although high leverage and regional revenue challenges require attention.
Positive Factors
Cost Management
Costs are on a better trajectory, prompting an increase in estimates to the higher end of guided ranges.
Financial Performance
United has generated strong results despite challenges, allowing it to take share and invest in durable product differentiation.
Revenue Growth
UAL's diversified revenue streams that focus on higher end premium, international, and loyalty are helping drive margins to the top of the industry.
Negative Factors
Cost Projections
Commentary on 2H25 unit costs growing similarly to 2Q25 at +2.2% was better than previous +3.5-4.0% forecasts.
Market Competition
The company expects a repeat of last fall where low-cost carriers cut service in unprofitable routes, allowing United to keep taking share in the domestic market.
Operational Challenges
UAL's resilience and ability to execute despite EWR and 2025's swings in sentiment & pricing gives greater conviction in the bullish LT thesis.

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

United Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The company transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. It also offers catering, ground handling, training, and maintenance services for third parties. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyUnited Airlines generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for passenger transportation, which constitutes the largest portion of its income. The company also earns significant revenue from cargo services, transporting goods and freight across its extensive network. Ancillary revenue streams contribute to earnings as well, including fees for checked baggage, seat selection, and in-flight purchases. Additionally, United Airlines benefits from its MileagePlus loyalty program, which drives repeat business and partnerships with hotels, car rental companies, and credit card issuers that provide further revenue sharing opportunities. Strategic partnerships and codeshare agreements with other airlines enhance its service offerings, expanding its market presence and customer base.

United Airlines Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Average Fuel Price
Average Fuel Price
Tracks the cost of fuel per gallon, a major expense for airlines, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
Chart InsightsUnited Airlines Holdings has seen a significant decrease in average fuel prices since their peak in mid-2022, which could positively impact operating costs and margins. The downward trend in fuel prices through 2024 and into 2025 suggests potential for improved profitability, assuming stable demand for air travel. With no recent earnings call insights, the focus remains on external factors like global oil prices and geopolitical stability that could influence future fuel costs.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

United Airlines Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 17, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 10.64%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights United Airlines' strong performance in revenue growth, operational efficiency, and cost management, despite facing challenges at Newark Airport and weaker-than-expected demand. The company demonstrated resilience and adaptability, with improvements in premium cabin revenues and strategic debt reduction. However, the decline in domestic and Atlantic RASM and initial demand weakness pose challenges moving forward.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Achievement
United's top-line revenue increased 1.7% to a record $15.2 billion in the second quarter.
Operational Excellence
United ranked #2 in on-time departure among the top 8 U.S. carriers and managed record high customer volumes, including the busiest travel day in United's history with over 611,000 passengers on June 22.
Premium Cabin Revenue Growth
Premium cabin revenues increased 5.6% year-over-year, demonstrating continued strong demand for premium services.
Improved Newark Operations
Newark rebounded to become the best performing airport in the New York City area after initial disruptions.
Successful Cost Management
Cost performance exceeded expectations with a 2.2% CASM-ex growth in the second quarter, with similar performance expected for the remainder of the year.
Free Cash Flow Generation
United expects to generate over $2 billion in free cash flow for the year.
Debt Reduction
United paid down the remaining $1.5 billion balance of their MileagePlus bonds two years early, reducing gross debt by almost $11 billion since the peak debt level of COVID.
Negative Updates
Newark Airport Challenges
Newark faced significant operational issues due to FAA technology outages and staffing shortages, impacting Q2 margins by approximately 1.2 points.
Demand Weakness
Demand was about 5 points weaker in the first half of the year than expected, impacted by high levels of uncertainty for businesses and consumers.
Domestic RASM Decline
Consolidated TRASM for the quarter was down 4% with a domestic decrease of 7%, indicating challenges in the domestic market.
Atlantic RASM Challenges
The Atlantic market, which previously had strong RASM growth, experienced negative RASM year-over-year.
Company Guidance
During the United Airlines Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the second quarter of 2025, key metrics and guidance were provided that underscored the company's strategic focus and operational performance. United reported a 1.7% increase in top-line revenue, reaching a record $15.2 billion. Consolidated TRASM was down 4% on a 5.9% increase in capacity, with international operations outperforming domestic ones. The company highlighted an EPS of $3.87, within their guidance range and above Wall Street expectations, despite challenges such as geopolitical tensions, high fuel prices, and operational issues at Newark. United's forward guidance anticipates a third-quarter EPS between $2.25 and $2.75 and full-year EPS between $9 and $11, bolstered by a recent 6-point improvement in demand and strategic capacity adjustments. The airline also emphasized its commitment to brand loyalty, revenue diversification, and operational resilience, which are expected to drive future growth and maintain competitive margins within the industry.

United Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
UAL exhibits strong financial recovery post-pandemic, with robust revenue and profitability growth. The income statement shows healthy margins and revenue growth, while the balance sheet indicates high leverage typical for the industry. Cash flow improvements are notable, though debt levels require careful management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
UAL has shown a strong recovery over the past few years, with significant improvements in revenue and profitability. The Gross Profit Margin for TTM stands at approximately 46.76%, and Net Profit Margin at around 5.71% are healthy for the airline industry. Revenue growth has been robust, with a notable increase from the pandemic lows. The EBIT Margin of about 8.62% and EBITDA Margin of 12.27% indicate efficient operational performance.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
UAL's balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is approximately 1.95, indicating a relatively high leverage but typical for the industry. Return on Equity (ROE) for TTM is around 24.74%, showing strong returns for shareholders. However, the Equity Ratio is about 17.33%, suggesting limited equity buffer.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a solid operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.92 for TTM, indicating strong cash generation. Free cash flow has turned positive, with a growth rate of about 5.60% over the previous annual report, reflecting improved capital management. However, fluctuations in financing activities may pose risks.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue57.06B53.72B44.95B24.63B15.36B
Gross Profit19.42B15.20B10.64B721.00M-5.03B
EBITDA8.50B7.83B5.12B1.50B-5.34B
Net Income3.15B2.62B737.00M-1.96B-7.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets74.08B71.10B67.36B68.17B59.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments14.47B14.39B16.41B18.41B11.68B
Total Debt33.63B36.74B36.43B39.37B32.75B
Total Liabilities61.41B61.78B60.46B63.15B53.59B
Stockholders Equity12.68B9.32B6.90B5.03B5.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.83B-260.00M1.25B-40.00M-5.86B
Operating Cash Flow9.45B6.91B6.07B2.07B-4.13B
Investing Cash Flow-2.65B-6.11B-13.83B-1.67B50.00M
Financing Cash Flow-4.18B-1.89B-3.35B6.40B12.96B

United Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price100.93
Price Trends
50DMA
85.46
Positive
100DMA
78.79
Positive
200DMA
86.70
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.41
Negative
RSI
70.98
Negative
STOCH
96.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 100.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.45, above the 50-day MA of 85.46, and above the 200-day MA of 86.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UAL.

United Airlines Holdings Risk Analysis

United Airlines Holdings disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Airlines Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

United Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$33.24B15.7627.12%1.27%10.61%37.32%
81
Outperform
$39.33B8.7430.07%1.06%3.01%-0.90%
80
Outperform
$32.67B10.1127.70%4.23%13.13%
73
Outperform
$12.61B26.9847.69%4.88%7.45%-13.53%
62
Neutral
$16.54B47.374.30%2.29%1.64%284.24%
62
Neutral
$8.46B16.93-21.27%1.50%
58
Neutral
HK$13.63B5.51-2.78%5.71%2.29%-57.50%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
100.93
58.58
138.32%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
60.24
20.25
50.64%
PAC
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico
249.18
89.95
56.49%
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings
66.63
26.18
64.72%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
31.50
5.38
20.60%
AAL
American Airlines
13.17
2.86
27.74%

United Airlines Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
United Airlines Reports Strong Q2 Profit Growth
Positive
Jul 16, 2025

On July 16, 2025, United Airlines reported a second-quarter profit that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with significant growth in earnings and pre-tax margin compared to the previous year. The company experienced a 6-point acceleration in booking demand starting in early July, attributed to reduced geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. United updated its full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance to $9.00 to $11.00, reflecting confidence in its business model. The airline also highlighted operational achievements, such as improved on-time performance and low seat cancellation rates, and announced strategic initiatives including debt repayment and new collaborations with JetBlue and Spotify.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAL) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Airlines Holdings stock, see the UAL Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
United Airlines Holds Annual Meeting, Elects Board Members
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 21, 2025, United Airlines Holdings held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected 11 directors to the Board, including Captain Brian Noyes and Richard Johnsen, representing the ALPA and IAM, respectively. Additionally, stockholders ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, approved executive compensation, and rejected a proposal to remove the one-year stock ownership requirement for calling special meetings.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAL) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Airlines Holdings stock, see the UAL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 19, 2025