Alaska Air Group (ALK)
NYSE:ALK
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Alaska Air
(NYSE:ALK)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▼(-18.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened fundamentals: thin profitability, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow. Technicals also point to a sustained downtrend with weak momentum. Earnings-call positives (demand resilience, loyalty/premium mix improvements, and liquidity) partially offset near-term pressures, but suspended guidance and fuel-driven losses keep the overall risk profile elevated.
Positive Factors
Loyalty program monetization
A strengthened Mileage Plan and a multiyear Bank of America extension create a durable, high-margin cash stream and predictable third-party remuneration. Multi-year co‑brand economics materially smooth revenue volatility, support margin expansion over time, and provide collateral used in loyalty‑backed financing.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and refinancings
Material debt accumulation and new debt tranches increase fixed obligations and reduce financial flexibility. Elevated leverage constrains the firm’s ability to absorb shocks or fund growth without higher financing costs and raises refinancing and covenant risks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loyalty program monetization
A strengthened Mileage Plan and a multiyear Bank of America extension create a durable, high-margin cash stream and predictable third-party remuneration. Multi-year co‑brand economics materially smooth revenue volatility, support margin expansion over time, and provide collateral used in loyalty‑backed financing.
Read all positive factors
Alaska Air Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Available Seat Miles Capacity
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlaska Air (ALK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.16B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth13.94%
EPS Growth-79.71%
CountryUS
Employees29,773
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding111,428,980
10 Day Avg. Volume3,200,097
30 Day Avg. Volume4,200,826
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.80
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio-17.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$53.44Price Target Upside17.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.77B
Alaska Air Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North A...
How the Company Makes Money
Alaska Air Group primarily earns revenue from providing air transportation services. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue from ticket sales for scheduled flights, which includes base fares and related transportation charges. The company...
Alaska Air Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong strategic and operational progress (revenue growth, loyalty acceleration, premium upgrades, international profitability, PSS cutover, and a favorable Bank of America co‑brand deal) contrasted with significant near‑term financial pressure driven primarily by a large and volatile fuel spike, Q1 losses, rising unit costs, and localized demand shocks in Hawaii and Puerto Vallarta. Management emphasized long‑term conviction in their Alaska Accelerate strategy and durable revenue mix improvements while pausing full‑year guidance until fuel and macro volatility stabilize.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Demand Resilience
Total Q1 revenues of $3.3 billion, up 5% year over year on capacity growth of 1.7%; unit revenues up 3.5% YoY. Company expects a path to ~10% unit revenue growth in Q2 assuming current demand holds.
Negative Updates
Q1 Losses and Suspended Full‑Year Guide
Reported Q1 GAAP net loss of $193 million and adjusted net loss of $192 million; adjusted loss per share of $1.68. Management suspended full‑year guidance given extreme fuel and macro volatility.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Demand Resilience
Total Q1 revenues of $3.3 billion, up 5% year over year on capacity growth of 1.7%; unit revenues up 3.5% YoY. Company expects a path to ~10% unit revenue growth in Q2 assuming current demand holds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management suspended its full‑year guide and instead gave detailed Q2 assumptions: coming off Q1 GAAP net loss $193M (adjusted net loss $192M) and adjusted loss per share $1.68 on $3.3B revenue (+5% YoY) with capacity +1.7%, unit revenue +3.5% and unit cost +6.3%, they now expect Q2 capacity ~+1% YoY, unit cost ~1.5 points above Q1, and an estimated Q2 EPS loss of ~$1/share assuming average fuel ~$4.50/gal for the quarter (April ~$4.75/gal), recovering ~1/3 of incremental fuel; management quantified Q1 fuel being >$100M higher and expects ~+$600M of incremental fuel cost in Q2 (a ~$3.60 EPS headwind), assumed a 32% tax rate, and noted fuel volatility (past week range $4.45–$5.15/gal). Financial flexibility remains strong with ~$2.9B liquidity, $20B unencumbered assets, net leverage 3.3x, debt‑to‑capital 61% (Q1 debt repayment $340M; ~$65M expected in Q2), and $250M of buybacks YTD with $180M remaining under a $1B authorization (paused); management also signaled a path to ~10% unit revenue in Q2 if current booking yields hold while calling out premium demand +8% YoY, managed corporate +19% and held revenue next 90 days +30%, even as Hawaii/Puerto Vallarta (≈30% of system capacity) created roughly a two‑point drag and Puerto Vallarta flying was cut ~30% for Q2.Alaska Air Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.40B | 14.24B | 11.73B | 10.43B | 9.65B | 6.18B |
| Gross Profit | 11.29B | 8.49B | 2.86B | 2.46B | 2.13B | 817.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.12B | 1.29B | 1.43B | 1.24B | 1.10B | 137.00M |
| Net Income | 73.00M | 100.00M | 395.00M | 235.00M | 58.00M | 478.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.30B | 20.36B | 19.77B | 15.83B | 15.35B | 14.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.77B | 2.12B | 2.48B | 1.79B | 2.42B | 3.12B |
| Total Debt | 6.67B | 6.89B | 6.39B | 3.82B | 3.78B | 4.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.57B | 16.24B | 15.40B | 11.72B | 11.53B | 11.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.73B | 4.12B | 4.37B | 4.11B | 3.82B | 3.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -477.00M | -339.00M | 183.00M | -444.00M | -253.00M | 738.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.21B | 1.25B | 1.46B | 1.05B | 1.42B | 1.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.41B | -1.62B | -634.00M | -964.00M | -1.22B | -1.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -391.00M | -199.00M | 119.00M | -147.00M | -325.00M | -914.00M |
Alaska Air Technical Analysis
Negative
45.40
Price Trends
39.22
Negative
45.42
Negative
48.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.93
Positive
38.07
Neutral
5.46
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 45.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.11, above the 50-day MA of 39.22, and below the 200-day MA of 48.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALK.
Alaska Air Risk Analysis
Alaska Air disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alaska Air reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alaska Air Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $46.15B | -37.50 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 5.24% | 20.93% | |
71 Outperform | $30.04B | 10.76 | 24.91% | ― | 4.73% | 1.55% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $18.75B | 20.61 | 10.67% | 1.73% | 4.72% | 72.71% | |
50 Neutral | $8.17B | -4.65 | -5.17% | ― | 3.33% | -70.60% | |
46 Neutral | $1.70B | -1.28 | -33.13% | ― | -0.52% | -138.22% | |
44 Neutral | $4.16B | -5.45 | 1.85% | ― | 13.94% | -79.71% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ALK
Alaska Air
36.21
-13.56
-27.25%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
67.76
20.06
42.06%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
4.38
-0.47
-9.69%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
37.35
6.22
19.98%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
89.12
15.79
21.53%
AAL
American Airlines
12.06
0.82
7.30%
Alaska Air Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alaska Air Shareholders Back Board, Pay, and Auditor
Positive
May 14, 2026
Alaska Air Group, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 12, 2026, where shareholders elected all 10 director nominees to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. The voting results showed solid support for the slate, with ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Issues New Debt and Expands Secured Financing
Neutral
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Alaska Airlines issued $500 million of 6.500% senior notes due June 1, 2031, fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Alaska Air Group. The notes carry semiannual interest, include change-of-control repurchase protections, and sit ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Prices New Notes and Loyalty-Backed Loan
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Alaska Air Group announced the pricing of a $500 million private offering of 6.5% senior notes due 2031 issued by Alaska Airlines, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by the parent company. The notes ar...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Launches $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Alaska Air Group announced that subsidiary Alaska Airlines launched a private offering of $500 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031, fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the parent company. The debt raise is targeted at qu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Expands Liquidity and Loyalty Card Partnership
Negative
Apr 20, 2026
Alaska Air Group, Inc. reported first‑quarter 2026 results on April 20, posting a GAAP net loss of $193 million and an adjusted net loss of $192 million as fuel price spikes and severe weather in Hawaiʻi and civil unrest in Puerto Valla...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alaska Air Sees Strong Demand but Projects Q1 Loss
Negative
Mar 30, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Alaska Air Group faced a challenging operating environment but reported that underlying demand remained strong, with unit revenue in line with expectations and capacity at the high end of guidance, up about 2%, suppor...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.