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Alaska Air
(NYSE:ALK)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(10.13% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—higher leverage, declining profitability, and negative free cash flow—plus near-term earnings pressure from fuel and cost volatility highlighted on the earnings call. This is partly offset by a strong technical uptrend and demand/loyalty mix improvements, but the high P/E provides little valuation cushion.
Positive Factors
Loyalty monetization & co‑brand deal
A growing, cash‑generative loyalty program with a multiyear Bank of America extension provides durable, non‑ticket revenue and predictable cash flows. The ~$615M co‑brand cash and ~$1B extension bolster liquidity and margins, supporting funding flexibility and securitization strategies over cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and weaker equity
Material debt growth and falling equity reduce balance‑sheet cushioning and increase financial risk. Higher leverage raises interest and refinancing exposure during downturns, constraining capital allocation and limiting ability to absorb shocks or invest without further debt or asset‑backed financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loyalty monetization & co‑brand deal
A growing, cash‑generative loyalty program with a multiyear Bank of America extension provides durable, non‑ticket revenue and predictable cash flows. The ~$615M co‑brand cash and ~$1B extension bolster liquidity and margins, supporting funding flexibility and securitization strategies over cycles.
Read all positive factors
Alaska Air Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Available Seat Miles Capacity
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlaska Air (ALK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)89.6
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth13.94%
EPS Growth-79.71%
CountryUS
Employees29,773
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding111,428,980
10 Day Avg. Volume3,572,571
30 Day Avg. Volume3,265,057
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.81
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio-17.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.39
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$59.45Price Target Upside30.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.81B
Alaska Air Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alaska Air Group, Inc. operates via its subsidiaries, providing comprehensive air transportation solutions for both passengers and freight. Its business is organized into three principal segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. The airline exten...
How the Company Makes Money
Alaska Air Group generates revenue primarily by transporting passengers on scheduled flights. Its core revenue stream is passenger ticket revenue (fares paid for air travel), supplemented by ancillary revenues tied to travel, such as fees and add-...
Alaska Air Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong strategic and operational progress (revenue growth, loyalty acceleration, premium upgrades, international profitability, PSS cutover, and a favorable Bank of America co‑brand deal) contrasted with significant near‑term financial pressure driven primarily by a large and volatile fuel spike, Q1 losses, rising unit costs, and localized demand shocks in Hawaii and Puerto Vallarta. Management emphasized long‑term conviction in their Alaska Accelerate strategy and durable revenue mix improvements while pausing full‑year guidance until fuel and macro volatility stabilize.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Demand Resilience
Total Q1 revenues of $3.3 billion, up 5% year over year on capacity growth of 1.7%; unit revenues up 3.5% YoY. Company expects a path to ~10% unit revenue growth in Q2 assuming current demand holds.
Negative Updates
Q1 Losses and Suspended Full‑Year Guide
Reported Q1 GAAP net loss of $193 million and adjusted net loss of $192 million; adjusted loss per share of $1.68. Management suspended full‑year guidance given extreme fuel and macro volatility.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Demand Resilience
Total Q1 revenues of $3.3 billion, up 5% year over year on capacity growth of 1.7%; unit revenues up 3.5% YoY. Company expects a path to ~10% unit revenue growth in Q2 assuming current demand holds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management suspended its full‑year guide and instead gave detailed Q2 assumptions: coming off Q1 GAAP net loss $193M (adjusted net loss $192M) and adjusted loss per share $1.68 on $3.3B revenue (+5% YoY) with capacity +1.7%, unit revenue +3.5% and unit cost +6.3%, they now expect Q2 capacity ~+1% YoY, unit cost ~1.5 points above Q1, and an estimated Q2 EPS loss of ~$1/share assuming average fuel ~$4.50/gal for the quarter (April ~$4.75/gal), recovering ~1/3 of incremental fuel; management quantified Q1 fuel being >$100M higher and expects ~+$600M of incremental fuel cost in Q2 (a ~$3.60 EPS headwind), assumed a 32% tax rate, and noted fuel volatility (past week range $4.45–$5.15/gal). Financial flexibility remains strong with ~$2.9B liquidity, $20B unencumbered assets, net leverage 3.3x, debt‑to‑capital 61% (Q1 debt repayment $340M; ~$65M expected in Q2), and $250M of buybacks YTD with $180M remaining under a $1B authorization (paused); management also signaled a path to ~10% unit revenue in Q2 if current booking yields hold while calling out premium demand +8% YoY, managed corporate +19% and held revenue next 90 days +30%, even as Hawaii/Puerto Vallarta (≈30% of system capacity) created roughly a two‑point drag and Puerto Vallarta flying was cut ~30% for Q2.Alaska Air Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.40B | 14.24B | 11.73B | 10.43B | 9.65B | 6.18B |
| Gross Profit | 11.29B | 8.49B | 2.86B | 2.46B | 2.13B | 817.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.12B | 1.29B | 1.43B | 1.24B | 1.10B | 137.00M |
| Net Income | 73.00M | 100.00M | 395.00M | 235.00M | 58.00M | 478.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.30B | 20.36B | 19.77B | 15.83B | 15.35B | 14.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.77B | 2.12B | 2.48B | 1.79B | 2.42B | 3.12B |
| Total Debt | 6.67B | 6.89B | 6.39B | 3.82B | 3.78B | 4.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.57B | 16.24B | 15.40B | 11.72B | 11.53B | 11.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.73B | 4.12B | 4.37B | 4.11B | 3.82B | 3.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -477.00M | -339.00M | 183.00M | -444.00M | -253.00M | 738.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.21B | 1.25B | 1.46B | 1.05B | 1.42B | 1.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.41B | -1.62B | -634.00M | -964.00M | -1.22B | -1.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -391.00M | -199.00M | 119.00M | -147.00M | -325.00M | -914.00M |
Alaska Air Technical Analysis
Positive
45.40
Price Trends
43.69
Positive
44.11
Positive
46.22
Positive
Market Momentum
2.51
Negative
60.69
Neutral
58.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.37, above the 50-day MA of 43.69, and below the 200-day MA of 46.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALK.
Alaska Air Risk Analysis
Alaska Air disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alaska Air reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alaska Air Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $60.94B | 13.40 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 5.24% | 20.93% | |
73 Outperform | $43.27B | 11.84 | 24.91% | ― | 4.73% | 1.55% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $24.56B | 31.80 | 10.67% | 1.73% | 4.72% | 72.71% | |
52 Neutral | $5.69B | 89.63 | 1.85% | ― | 13.94% | -79.71% | |
50 Neutral | $2.24B | -3.10 | -33.13% | ― | -0.52% | -138.22% | |
50 Neutral | $11.85B | 57.81 | -5.17% | ― | 3.33% | -70.60% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ALK
Alaska Air
51.09
0.04
0.08%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
92.75
42.49
84.55%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
6.02
1.56
34.98%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
50.25
16.80
50.22%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
133.32
50.96
61.87%
AAL
American Airlines
17.92
6.23
53.29%
Alaska Air Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Alaska Air expands leadership, appoints Shane Tackett president
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Alaska Air Group’s board elected longtime executive Shane Tackett as president of Alaska Airlines effective June 29, 2026, while he continues as chief financial officer of both Alaska Air Group and Alaska Airlines, expandin...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Alaska Air Adds Former T-Mobile CEO to Board
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Alaska Air Group announced that former T-Mobile chief executive and current vice chair Mike Sievert will join its board of directors, expanding the board to 10 independent directors plus CEO Ben Minicucci. Sievert will serve on th...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alaska Air Shareholders Back Board, Pay, and Auditor
Positive
May 14, 2026
Alaska Air Group, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 12, 2026, where shareholders elected all 10 director nominees to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. The voting results showed solid support for the slate, with ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Issues New Debt and Expands Secured Financing
Neutral
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Alaska Airlines issued $500 million of 6.500% senior notes due June 1, 2031, fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Alaska Air Group. The notes carry semiannual interest, include change-of-control repurchase protections, and sit ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Prices New Notes and Loyalty-Backed Loan
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Alaska Air Group announced the pricing of a $500 million private offering of 6.5% senior notes due 2031 issued by Alaska Airlines, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by the parent company. The notes ar...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Launches $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Alaska Air Group announced that subsidiary Alaska Airlines launched a private offering of $500 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031, fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the parent company. The debt raise is targeted at qu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Expands Liquidity and Loyalty Card Partnership
Negative
Apr 20, 2026
Alaska Air Group, Inc. reported first‑quarter 2026 results on April 20, posting a GAAP net loss of $193 million and an adjusted net loss of $192 million as fuel price spikes and severe weather in Hawaiʻi and civil unrest in Puerto Valla...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alaska Air Sees Strong Demand but Projects Q1 Loss
Negative
Mar 30, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Alaska Air Group faced a challenging operating environment but reported that underlying demand remained strong, with unit revenue in line with expectations and capacity at the high end of guidance, up about 2%, suppor...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.