Alaska Air (ALK)
NYSE:ALK
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Alaska Air
(NYSE:ALK)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▼(-5.21% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (downtrend and negative momentum) and a mixed financial picture with margin pressure, negative 2025 free cash flow, and elevated leverage. Offsetting this, the earnings call supports a cautiously improving outlook via expected positive free cash flow, synergies and capital returns, though near-term volatility and guidance uncertainty remain.
Positive Factors
Top-line growth and operating cash generation
Alaska Air has delivered sustained revenue expansion since 2020 alongside solid operating cash flow (~$1.2–1.25B). Durable top-line growth plus consistent OCF provides a foundation to fund fleet investment, loyalty programs and gradual deleveraging, supporting medium-term competitiveness.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and higher debt load
A materially higher debt base (~$6.9B) relative to equity constrains financial flexibility and heightens refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Elevated leverage limits capacity to absorb shocks or accelerate investment and can slow the path to the firm's long-term net-debt targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Top-line growth and operating cash generation
Alaska Air has delivered sustained revenue expansion since 2020 alongside solid operating cash flow (~$1.2–1.25B). Durable top-line growth plus consistent OCF provides a foundation to fund fleet investment, loyalty programs and gradual deleveraging, supporting medium-term competitiveness.
Read all positive factors
Alaska Air (ALK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)58.1
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth31.50%
EPS Growth-49.15%
CountryUS
Employees29,773
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding114,641,450
10 Day Avg. Volume4,868,135
30 Day Avg. Volume4,794,742
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.80
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio-17.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.50Price Target Upside61.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.67B
Alaska Air Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North A...
How the Company Makes Money
Alaska Air Group primarily earns revenue from providing air transportation services. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue from ticket sales for scheduled flights, which includes base fares and related transportation charges. The company...
Alaska Air Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Available Seat Miles Capacity
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlaska Air Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong operational and strategic progress (integration milestones, large aircraft order, Atmos loyalty and card momentum, premium revenue growth, share repurchases and delivered synergies) that position the company for medium-term improvement, but significant near-term headwinds remain (IT outages, macro-driven revenue shortfalls >$500M in 2025, fuel price volatility, Q1 earnings weakness and a wide 2026 guidance range). Management emphasized that many negatives are transient and remediation/harvesting of 2025 investments should drive margin expansion, but execution risk and external volatility keep outcomes uncertain in the near term.Positive Updates
Adjusted Earnings Ahead of Revised Guidance
Adjusted net income of $50M in Q4 and $293M for the full year; adjusted EPS of $0.43 in Q4 and $2.44 for FY2025, both ahead of the company's revised guidance in December.
Negative Updates
IT Outages and Operational Disruption
Two significant IT outages in 2025 (hardware/configuration failures and backup redundancies that did not engage) caused guest disruption, employee strain and financial impact. Management is investing in resiliency/remediation and engaging third-party experts; remediation costs are contemplated in the 2026 plan.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted Earnings Ahead of Revised Guidance
Adjusted net income of $50M in Q4 and $293M for the full year; adjusted EPS of $0.43 in Q4 and $2.44 for FY2025, both ahead of the company's revised guidance in December.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alaska Air Group guided 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.50–$6.50 (Q1 EPS loss of $1.50 to $0.50), with Q1 capacity up ~1–2% and full‑year capacity up ~2–3% (six 737 deliveries, one 787 and four E175s), planned CapEx of $1.5 billion and an expectation of positive free cash flow; management reiterated at‑least‑offsetting share repurchases (after $570M repurchased in 2025, >half of a $1B authorization), ~$240M of debt repayments expected in Q1, year‑end liquidity of ~$3.0B, debt‑to‑capital ~61% and net debt/EBITDA ~3x (long‑term target ~1.5x), and noted every $0.10/gal change in fuel moves full‑year EPS by ~$0.75 (about 50% of fuel exposure to West Coast markets, 25% Hawaii, 25% rest of U.S.); near‑term operating assumptions include delivery of synergies/initiatives, lapping transitory 2025 impacts, “solidly positive” Q1 unit revenue, and Starlink Wi‑Fi on ~50% of the fleet by end‑2026 (100% by end‑2027).Alaska Air Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 14.24B | 11.73B | 10.43B | 9.65B | 6.18B |
| Gross Profit | 8.49B | 2.86B | 2.46B | 2.13B | 817.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.29B | 1.43B | 1.24B | 1.10B | 137.00M |
| Net Income | 100.00M | 395.00M | 235.00M | 58.00M | 478.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 20.36B | 19.77B | 15.83B | 15.35B | 14.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.12B | 2.48B | 1.79B | 2.42B | 3.12B |
| Total Debt | 6.89B | 6.39B | 3.82B | 3.78B | 4.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.24B | 15.40B | 11.72B | 11.53B | 11.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.12B | 4.37B | 4.11B | 3.82B | 3.80B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -339.00M | 183.00M | -444.00M | -253.00M | 738.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.25B | 1.46B | 1.05B | 1.42B | 1.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.62B | -634.00M | -964.00M | -1.22B | -1.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -199.00M | 119.00M | -147.00M | -325.00M | -914.00M |
Alaska Air Technical Analysis
Negative
37.98
Price Trends
47.23
Negative
47.26
Negative
49.79
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.82
Negative
40.71
Neutral
60.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.46, below the 50-day MA of 47.23, and below the 200-day MA of 49.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALK.
Alaska Air Risk Analysis
Alaska Air disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alaska Air reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alaska Air Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $29.42B | 10.91 | 24.13% | ― | 4.24% | 20.29% | |
69 Neutral | $43.62B | 8.99 | 27.63% | 0.96% | 4.33% | -1.58% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $18.76B | 50.61 | 5.33% | 1.73% | 0.65% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $4.35B | 58.11 | 2.47% | ― | 31.50% | -49.15% | |
46 Neutral | $1.69B | -2.79 | -26.05% | ― | -2.49% | 47.88% | |
46 Neutral | $7.20B | 25.57 | -2.76% | ― | 1.27% | 118.64% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ALK
Alaska Air
37.98
-3.03
-7.39%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
66.78
31.34
88.40%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
4.57
0.97
26.94%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
38.18
13.92
57.38%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
90.97
34.82
62.01%
AAL
American Airlines
10.90
1.83
20.18%
Alaska Air Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alaska Air Sees Strong Demand but Projects Q1 Loss
Negative
Mar 30, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Alaska Air Group faced a challenging operating environment but reported that underlying demand remained strong, with unit revenue in line with expectations and capacity at the high end of guidance, up about 2%, suppor...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Alaska Air posts solid Q4 2025 results, upbeat outlook
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Alaska Air Group reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, posting GAAP net income of $21 million, or $0.18 per share, and adjusted earnings of $50 million, or $0.43 per share, for the quarter, ahead of prior guidanc...
Business Operations and Strategy
Alaska Air Expands Future Fleet with Major Boeing Order
Positive
Jan 7, 2026
On December 31, 2025, Alaska Airlines finalized a significant fleet expansion with Boeing, ordering 53 additional 737-10 aircraft for delivery between 2032 and 2035, exercising options for 52 more 737-10s scheduled between 2028 and 2032, and addin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.