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Alaska Air
(NYSE:ALK)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
▼(-2.45% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/22/26
The score is held down primarily by weakening financial performance (TTM loss, negative free cash flow, and higher leverage) and weak technical momentum. Valuation is also unfavorable given the very high P/E and no dividend yield provided. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call conveyed improving unit revenue trends and an expected earnings inflection as fuel and cost dynamics improve, but execution and leverage remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Unit revenue and top-line growth
Sustained unit-revenue acceleration and meaningful multi-year revenue expansion indicate durable demand and pricing power. Gradual capacity discipline combined with rising yields supports lasting revenue quality, enabling steady margin recovery as cost headwinds normalize.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Material increase in debt and a shrinking equity base raise financial risk and constrain flexibility. Elevated leverage amplifies interest and refinancing exposure, making the company more sensitive to cash‑flow volatility and limiting room for strategic investments until deleveraging occurs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Unit revenue and top-line growth
Sustained unit-revenue acceleration and meaningful multi-year revenue expansion indicate durable demand and pricing power. Gradual capacity discipline combined with rising yields supports lasting revenue quality, enabling steady margin recovery as cost headwinds normalize.
Read all positive factors
Alaska Air Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Available Seat Miles Capacity
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Measures the total seating capacity available across all flights, reflecting the airline's ability to meet demand and expand its network.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlaska Air (ALK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.26B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth9.79%
EPS Growth-161.50%
CountryUS
Employees31,465
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.58
Shares Outstanding111,428,980
10 Day Avg. Volume3,572,968
30 Day Avg. Volume3,251,854
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.81
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio-17.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$64.77Price Target Upside40.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.80B
Alaska Air Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alaska Air Group, Inc. operates via its subsidiaries, providing comprehensive air transportation solutions for both passengers and freight. Its business is organized into three principal segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. The airline exten...
How the Company Makes Money
Alaska Air Group generates revenue primarily by transporting passengers on scheduled flights. Its core revenue stream is passenger ticket revenue (fares paid for air travel), supplemented by ancillary revenues tied to travel, such as fees and add-...
Alaska Air Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong commercial and operational momentum following major integration milestones: double-digit unit revenue acceleration, robust loyalty and cobrand performance, premium and cargo growth, improved guest satisfaction and a June return to profitability. However, near-term financials were significantly impacted by an outsized and volatile fuel spike (fuel up ~70% YoY), a Q2 adjusted net loss, elevated CASM ex-fuel in the quarter (6.5% YoY), and temporarily higher leverage. Management presents a coherent plan (capacity discipline, cost control, international and premium mix, cargo expansion, and liquidity management) and expects earnings inflection as fuel normalizes and synergies/optimizations are harvested. Overall, the operational/commercial wins and clear path to margin recovery outweigh the near-term financial headwinds driven primarily by fuel volatility.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Second quarter revenue of $4.1 billion, a 10% increase year over year on only 1% capacity growth.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Loss Despite Beating Guidance
Reported Q2 GAAP net loss of $76 million and adjusted net loss of $102 million (excluding special items); company noted nearly $500 million loss in the first half of the year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Second quarter revenue of $4.1 billion, a 10% increase year over year on only 1% capacity growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated that full‑year ASM growth is now about 2% (at the low end of prior 2–3% guidance) after pulling roughly 1 point of capacity from both Q3 and Q4, with Q3 capacity expected to grow ~2–3% (entirely intercontinental). They highlighted sequential revenue momentum (unit revenue acceleration Apr/May/Jun +5.5%/+8.8%/+11%, June total revenues +13.2%) and expect Q3 RASM to improve sequentially to low double‑digits YoY (summer unit revenues running in the mid‑teens), noting ~65% of Q3 and 15% of Q4 revenue already booked. Fuel guidance is Q2 economic fuel ~$4.43/gal (vs. prior $4.50 guide) and Q3 fuel ~$3.75/gal (Jul $3.60; Aug/Sept $3.85), with Q3 earnings expected between breakeven and $1 per share at that price and a projected H2 RASM–CASM (ex‑fuel) spread improvement of several points from Q2’s ~2‑point spread. They also reiterated non‑fuel unit costs should step down to low‑to‑mid single digits (Q2 CASM ex‑fuel +6.5% YoY), and closed Q2 with $3.8B liquidity after raising $1B ($500M unsecured notes, $500M term loan), debt/capital 65%, TTM adjusted net leverage 4.8x, and roughly $20B of unencumbered assets.Alaska Air Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.76B | 14.24B | 11.73B | 10.43B | 9.65B | 6.18B |
| Gross Profit | 13.97B | 8.49B | 2.86B | 2.46B | 2.13B | 817.00M |
| EBITDA | 641.00M | 1.29B | 1.43B | 1.24B | 1.10B | 137.00M |
| Net Income | -175.00M | 100.00M | 395.00M | 235.00M | 58.00M | 478.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.25B | 20.36B | 19.77B | 15.83B | 15.35B | 14.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.69B | 2.12B | 2.48B | 1.79B | 2.42B | 3.12B |
| Total Debt | 7.62B | 6.89B | 6.39B | 3.82B | 3.78B | 4.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.58B | 16.24B | 15.40B | 11.72B | 11.53B | 11.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.67B | 4.12B | 4.37B | 4.11B | 3.82B | 3.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -350.00M | -339.00M | 183.00M | -444.00M | -253.00M | 738.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.02B | 1.25B | 1.46B | 1.05B | 1.42B | 1.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.51B | -1.62B | -634.00M | -964.00M | -1.22B | -1.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 817.00M | -199.00M | 119.00M | -147.00M | -325.00M | -914.00M |
Alaska Air Technical Analysis
Positive
46.13
Price Trends
46.94
Positive
43.08
Positive
45.78
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.54
Positive
46.69
Neutral
44.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.23, below the 50-day MA of 46.94, and above the 200-day MA of 45.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALK.
Alaska Air Risk Analysis
Alaska Air disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alaska Air reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alaska Air Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $58.26B | 14.38 | 19.33% | 0.91% | 10.28% | -12.67% | |
70 Outperform | $40.11B | 11.32 | 22.50% | ― | 8.48% | 6.74% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $22.31B | 27.09 | 11.27% | 1.60% | 9.46% | 137.74% | |
49 Neutral | $2.29B | -2.50 | -45.51% | ― | 3.99% | -119.13% | |
46 Neutral | $5.26B | -30.03 | -4.50% | ― | 9.79% | -161.50% | |
46 Neutral | $10.21B | -31.16 | 8.29% | ― | 7.53% | -157.37% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ALK
Alaska Air
47.45
-3.92
-7.63%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
87.44
36.84
72.82%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
6.03
1.76
41.22%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
44.97
15.72
53.74%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
121.33
36.76
43.47%
AAL
American Airlines
15.27
4.24
38.44%
Alaska Air Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Reports Q2 Loss Amid Fuel Cost Surge
Negative
Jul 21, 2026
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Alaska Air Group reported a GAAP pretax margin of negative 5.3% and a net loss of $76 million, as an 85% surge in fuel costs added about $600 million in expenses despite 10% revenue growth to $4.1 billion and a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Alaska Air expands leadership, appoints Shane Tackett president
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Alaska Air Group’s board elected longtime executive Shane Tackett as president of Alaska Airlines effective June 29, 2026, while he continues as chief financial officer of both Alaska Air Group and Alaska Airlines, expandin...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Alaska Air Adds Former T-Mobile CEO to Board
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Alaska Air Group announced that former T-Mobile chief executive and current vice chair Mike Sievert will join its board of directors, expanding the board to 10 independent directors plus CEO Ben Minicucci. Sievert will serve on th...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alaska Air Shareholders Back Board, Pay, and Auditor
Positive
May 14, 2026
Alaska Air Group, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 12, 2026, where shareholders elected all 10 director nominees to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. The voting results showed solid support for the slate, with ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Issues New Debt and Expands Secured Financing
Neutral
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Alaska Airlines issued $500 million of 6.500% senior notes due June 1, 2031, fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Alaska Air Group. The notes carry semiannual interest, include change-of-control repurchase protections, and sit ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Prices New Notes and Loyalty-Backed Loan
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Alaska Air Group announced the pricing of a $500 million private offering of 6.5% senior notes due 2031 issued by Alaska Airlines, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by the parent company. The notes ar...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alaska Air Launches $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Alaska Air Group announced that subsidiary Alaska Airlines launched a private offering of $500 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031, fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the parent company. The debt raise is targeted at qu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.