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JetBlue Airways (JBLU)
NASDAQ:JBLU

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) AI Stock Analysis

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JetBlue Airways

(NASDAQ:JBLU)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(9.41%Upside)
JetBlue's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses. While technical analysis shows some positive momentum, valuation metrics are weak due to negative earnings. The company's strong liquidity and operational improvements are notable but outweighed by demand uncertainties and unresolved operational issues.
Positive Factors
Customer Benefits
Access to United's network could significantly increase the utility of JetBlue's loyalty points and likely accelerate growth in high margin mileage sales.
Financial Stability
JetBlue is believed to have ample liquidity to weather potential economic downturns, with significant assets and undrawn credit facilities.
Partnership Benefits
The UAL-JBLU partnership announcement is expected to be well received by investors, benefiting both sides, with a bigger difference for JBLU.
Negative Factors
Financial Challenges
It is deeply unclear if the benefits from a potential partnership with United could help JetBlue to reverse its free cash outflow and reduce its debt load.
Pricing Uncertainty
Industry-wide uncertainty over when pricing improves is impacting earnings estimates for JetBlue.
Revenue Performance
JetBlue's revenue trend is the second worst among U.S. airlines, reflecting a potential loss of demand momentum in coastal markets.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

JetBlue Airways Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJetBlue Airways Corporation provides air passenger transportation services. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 63 Airbus A321 aircraft, 8 Airbus A220 aircraft, 21 Airbus A321neo aircraft, 130 Airbus A320 aircraft, and 60 Embraer E190 aircraft. It also served 107 destinations in the 31 states in the United States, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 24 countries in the Caribbean and Latin America. JetBlue Airways Corporation has a strategic partnership with American Airlines Group Inc. to create connectivity for travelers in the Northeast. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Long Island City, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyJetBlue Airways generates revenue primarily through passenger ticket sales, which account for the bulk of its income. The company also earns money from ancillary services, such as baggage fees, premium seating options, and in-flight purchases. Additionally, JetBlue has a loyalty program called TrueBlue, which partners with various businesses to offer rewards and can drive further revenue. Partnerships with other airlines through codeshare agreements also contribute to its revenue by expanding its network and customer base. Fuel hedging and cost management strategies are significant factors that influence profitability, allowing the airline to manage expenses effectively.

JetBlue Airways Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 12.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
JetBlue demonstrated strong liquidity and operational improvements, particularly in its Premium and transatlantic segments. However, the company faces significant challenges with softening demand, domestic market weakness, and unresolved issues with Pratt & Whitney engines, leading to an unpredictable outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Liquidity Position
JetBlue ended 2024 with $3.9 billion in liquidity, excluding a $600 million revolver, representing 42% of trailing 12-month revenue, which is the strongest liquidity ratio in the industry.
Improvement in Operational Metrics
JetBlue's A14 metric improved by nearly four points year-over-year in Q1 2025, despite weather challenges. Net Promoter Score (NPS) also improved double digits year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth.
Premium Segment Performance
Premium RASM, including Mint and EvenMore, outperformed Core RASM by high single digits. The new Premium co-branded credit card launched in January exceeded sign-up goals.
Transatlantic RASM Growth
Transatlantic RASM was up 28% year-over-year on 25% fewer ASMs, benefiting from seasonal optimization.
Negative Updates
Softening Demand and Unpredictable Outlook
The first quarter saw softening demand, deteriorating further in March. The outlook for the second half of the year remains unpredictable due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Capacity and Revenue Challenges
RASM increased only 1.3% year-over-year, and capacity reductions pressured unit costs. The second quarter is expected to see unit revenues down between 7.5% and 3.5%.
Domestic Market Weakness
There was significant weakness across the domestic network, particularly on off-peak days and times, which negatively affected unit revenues.
Pratt & Whitney Engine Constraints
Pratt & Whitney constraints are driving three points of margin degradation, and compensation from Pratt & Whitney remains unresolved.
Company Guidance
During JetBlue's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided several metrics and insights regarding its performance and future outlook. The Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM) met initial guidance despite a challenging demand environment, while capacity finished at the low end of the range and CASM ex-fuel beat the midpoint of initial guidance. The company experienced a deterioration in booking trends from January through March, leading to an unpredictable outlook for the second half of the year. JetBlue highlighted improvements in operational performance, with A14 reliability nearly four points better year-over-year and a double-digit improvement in Net Promoter Score (NPS). The airline reported a strong liquidity position, ending 2024 with $3.9 billion in liquidity, representing 42% of trailing 12-month revenue. Despite economic challenges, JetBlue remains committed to its long-term JetForward strategy, focusing on cost transformation and capacity adjustments to better match supply with demand throughout 2025. The company also plans to announce a domestic airline partnership to enhance its network and loyalty program.

JetBlue Airways Financial Statement Overview

Summary
JetBlue faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, negative net income, and high leverage reflected across its financial statements. Negative cash flow and profitability concerns highlight the need for improved revenue generation and cost management.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
JetBlue's income statement shows significant challenges, including declining revenues in recent years and persistent negative net income. The gross profit margin has been volatile, and EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational inefficiencies and profitability concerns. Revenue growth was negative in 2024 compared to 2023, which raises further concerns about growth prospects.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a rising debt-to-equity ratio, indicating increased financial risk. Stockholders' equity has been declining, and the company's equity ratio is under pressure. These factors reflect financial instability and potential risk if the company cannot improve operational performance or manage its debt levels.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
JetBlue's cash flow statement highlights substantial liquidity challenges, with negative free cash flow and declining operating cash flow visibility. The free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, and free cash flow growth has been negative, indicating cash management issues and potential capital expenditure constraints.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
9.21B9.28B9.62B9.16B6.04B2.96B
Gross Profit
1.72B4.64B904.00M1.47B350.00M-1.13B
EBIT
-135.00M-684.00M-230.00M-185.00M-913.00M-1.71B
EBITDA
711.00M108.00M497.00M314.00M452.00M-1.19B
Net Income Common Stockholders
-287.00M-795.00M-310.00M-362.00M-182.00M-1.36B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.54B3.61B1.57B1.04B2.02B1.92B
Total Assets
13.23B18.53B13.85B13.04B13.64B13.35B
Total Debt
4.29B9.14B5.38B4.38B4.80B5.73B
Net Debt
2.96B7.22B4.21B3.34B2.78B3.81B
Total Liabilities
9.85B14.20B10.52B9.48B9.79B9.41B
Stockholders Equity
3.37B2.64B3.34B3.56B3.85B3.94B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-1.28B-1.35B-806.00M-544.00M647.00M-1.47B
Operating Cash Flow
54.00M144.00M400.00M379.00M1.64B-683.00M
Investing Cash Flow
-2.32B-3.08B-1.38B-908.00M-704.00M-1.35B
Financing Cash Flow
3.41B3.77B1.11B-360.00M-830.00M2.98B

JetBlue Airways Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.57
Price Trends
50DMA
4.52
Negative
100DMA
5.31
Negative
200DMA
5.99
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Positive
RSI
36.13
Neutral
STOCH
6.02
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JBLU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.94, above the 50-day MA of 4.52, and below the 200-day MA of 5.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JBLU.

JetBlue Airways Risk Analysis

JetBlue Airways disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JetBlue Airways reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JetBlue Airways Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
UAUAL
79
Outperform
$25.64B7.1633.57%5.31%35.95%
DADAL
78
Outperform
$32.30B8.7727.52%1.27%4.91%-27.21%
LULUV
68
Neutral
$18.35B38.245.63%2.27%3.26%27.77%
66
Neutral
$4.50B12.265.40%3.65%4.17%-12.02%
AAAAL
61
Neutral
$7.19B12.58-21.27%1.92%36.07%
53
Neutral
$817.67M12.1412.71%5.99%
48
Neutral
$1.62B-11.30%-3.02%66.90%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
4.21
-1.45
-25.62%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
47.32
-1.68
-3.43%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
31.44
3.50
12.53%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
73.67
24.09
48.59%
AAL
American Airlines
10.56
-0.72
-6.38%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
3.42
-1.90
-35.71%

JetBlue Airways Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
JetBlue Airways Shareholders Approve Key Proposals
Neutral
May 16, 2025

At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2025, JetBlue Airways Corporation’s shareholders voted on three key proposals. All thirteen director nominees were elected to the board, the advisory vote on executive compensation was approved, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (JBLU) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JetBlue Airways stock, see the JBLU Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
JetBlue Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results, Net Loss
Negative
Apr 29, 2025

JetBlue Airways reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net loss of $208 million under GAAP and a decrease in operating revenue and expenses compared to the previous year. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, the company demonstrated strong operational performance and customer satisfaction improvements driven by its JetForward strategy. JetBlue is proactively managing capacity and costs to navigate uncertainties, with significant liquidity and unencumbered assets supporting its financial resilience. The airline also introduced new products and enhancements, including a premium co-branded credit card and sustainable aviation fuel supply at JFK Airport, as part of its commitment to long-term growth and profitability.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.