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JetBlue Airways (JBLU)
NASDAQ:JBLU
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JetBlue Airways
(NASDAQ:JBLU)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(4.71% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, negative recent free cash flow, and sharply higher leverage). Offsetting this, the stock shows improving technical momentum and management provided a credible (but execution-sensitive) path toward breakeven margins in 2026 and positive free cash flow by 2027; valuation remains constrained by loss-making earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
JetForward EBIT ramp
The JetForward transformation has already delivered meaningful, recurring incremental EBIT ($305M in 2025) and management targets a much larger run-rate by 2027. That structural program expands margins via cost and revenue initiatives, creating a durable pathway to profitability if execution holds.
Operational reliability & NPS gains
Sustained improvement in on-time performance and a material NPS uplift (+8 pts in 2025, +17 since 2024 start) indicate a durable service quality recovery. Better reliability supports repeat customers, higher ancillary and loyalty yield, and reduces long-term disruption costs versus peers.
Stronger liquidity & capex discipline
Material liquidity and a multi-year capex pullback give the company time to execute turnaround initiatives without immediate cash strain. Lower annual aircraft and systems spend preserves cash flow potential and supports the stated path to positive free cash flow by 2027.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage has increased materially, compressing financial flexibility. A ~4.4x debt/equity ratio elevates refinancing, covenant and interest-rate risk, meaning future shocks could force dilutive financing or constrained investment, slowing recovery and raising long-term funding costs.
Deteriorated cash generation
Recent negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow indicate the business is still burning cash and reliant on external funding. That undermines the sustainability of incremental investments and makes achievement of projected 2027 positive FCF dependent on steady execution and revenue recovery.
Cost and operational headwinds
Rising unit costs, elevated maintenance/AOG impacts, and frequent weather/airspace disruptions create a persistent margin headwind. These structural operational risks increase volatility in unit economics and could delay realization of JetForward savings and premium revenue gains.
JetBlue Airways (JBLU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.12B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)19.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth-2.49%
EPS Growth47.88%
CountryUS
Employees23,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.49
Shares Outstanding370,119,660
10 Day Avg. Volume13,200,273
30 Day Avg. Volume19,735,713
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.79
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-1.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.10Price Target Upside-10.99% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.78B
JetBlue Airways Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionJetBlue Airways Corporation provides air passenger transportation services. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 63 Airbus A321 aircraft, 8 Airbus A220 aircraft, 21 Airbus A321neo aircraft, 130 Airbus A320 aircraft, and 60 Embraer E190 aircraft. It also served 107 destinations in the 31 states in the United States, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 24 countries in the Caribbean and Latin America. JetBlue Airways Corporation has a strategic partnership with American Airlines Group Inc. to create connectivity for travelers in the Northeast. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Long Island City, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyJetBlue generates revenue primarily through the sale of passenger tickets, which account for the largest portion of its income. In addition to ticket sales, the airline earns money through ancillary services, which include fees for checked baggage, seat selection, and in-flight purchases. JetBlue also benefits from partnerships with other airlines and travel companies, enabling it to offer codeshare flights and vacation packages. Furthermore, the airline's loyalty program, TrueBlue, encourages repeat customers and contributes to revenue through loyalty point redemptions and associated spending. Overall, JetBlue's revenue model is built on a combination of low-cost fares and value-added services that enhance customer experience.
JetBlue Airways Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational and commercial progress with significant near-term headwinds. Highlights include strong execution of the Jet Forward program (driving $305M incremental EBIT in 2025), measurable improvements in operational reliability and customer satisfaction (NPS +8 pts in 2025, loyalty revenue +8%), premium and loyalty revenue momentum, disciplined capital spending cuts, and constructive 2026 guidance targeting breakeven operating margin. Lowlights are material: a 2025 adjusted operating margin of -3.7%, elevated CASM ex-fuel (Q4 +6.7%), weather and airspace disruptions (1,100+ canceled flights), fuel price volatility, GTF-related AOG impacts, and ongoing balance-sheet and financing needs. Management frames a credible path to breakeven in 2026 and positive free cash flow by 2027, but execution and macro/fuel/operational risks remain. Overall, the positives from Jet Forward progress and constructive guidance outweigh the challenges, assuming management executes as planned.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Jet Forward Delivered Meaningful EBIT Contribution
$305 million incremental EBIT in 2025 from Jet Forward; company expects an additional $310 million incremental EBIT in 2026 for a total of $615 million in 2026 and targets $850–$950 million incremental EBIT for full-year 2027.
Operational and Customer Experience Improvement
Beat all on-time performance targets in 2025 and improved every metric versus 2024; Net Promoter Score (NPS) improved by 8 points in 2025 and 17 points since the start of 2024, driving higher loyalty and repeat customers.
Premium and Loyalty Revenue Strength
Premium RASM outperformed core RASM by 13 points in Q4; loyalty revenue grew 8% for the full year and now represents over 13% of total revenue (up from 11% in 2023); premium-related initiatives (Mint, Even More, lounges, co-brand card) seeing strong adoption.
Revenue Trends and Guidance
Fourth-quarter unit revenue (RASM) was up 0.2% year-over-year (over two points better than guidance midpoint). Full-year 2026 guidance targets RASM growth of 2%–5% and capacity growth of 2.5%–4.5%, aiming for breakeven operating margin or better.
Fort Lauderdale Strategic Expansion Performing Above Expectations
Rapid ramp in Fort Lauderdale with over 20 new nonstop destinations announced and increased frequencies; expected Q4 RASM headwind from this expansion ~0.5 points versus the initially expected 1 point, with up to 26 daily Mint flights touching FLL.
Fuel Efficiency and Cost-Saving Initiatives
ASMs per gallon expected to improve ~1.5% in 2026 and ~5% over the last three years, equating to roughly $100 million of fuel savings in 2026; CASM ex-fuel growth guidance for 2026 is modest at 1%–3% as Jet Forward cost savings ramp.
Capital Discipline and Liquidity
2025 CapEx was $1.1 billion; 2026 CapEx expected about $900 million. Planned 2026–2029 capital lowered from $6 billion to $3 billion, with annual CapEx expected below $1 billion through the decade. Ended 2025 with $2.5 billion liquidity (ex. $600 million revolver).
Commercial & Distribution Partnerships Rolling Out
Blue Sky collaboration with United progressing (mutual distribution, loyalty benefits) and Paisley ancillary distribution to roll out non-air ancillaries (car rentals, hotels, cruises, packages, insurance) with expectation to sell all ancillaries by year-end 2026.
Negative Updates
2025 Operating Loss and Macro Headwinds
Adjusted operating margin for 2025 was negative 3.7%, below the initial full-year guidance of 1%–2%; management estimates macro uncertainty represented more than four points of headwind to operating margin in 2025.
Rising Unit Costs and Q4 Cost Pressure
CASM ex-fuel rose 6.7% in Q4 and finished the full year up 6.2%; Q1 2026 CASM ex-fuel is expected to grow 3.5%–5.5% (the highest quarter) largely driven by elevated maintenance expense.
Weather and Operational Disruptions
Winter Storm Fern led to cancellation of over 1,100 flights; temporary Caribbean airspace closure in early January created a RASM headwind of under 1 point for Q1; other disruptions included a government shutdown and an Airbus airworthiness directive in 2025.
Fuel Price Volatility
Q4 fuel price averaged $2.51 per gallon vs the mid-expectation of $2.40, creating a headwind; company assumes $2.34 for Q1 and $2.27 for full-year 2026 at midpoints, but fuel volatility remains a risk.
Engine/GTF Reliability Issues
AOG impact from GTF-related issues averaged nine aircraft on ground in 2025; management expects mid-single digits AOG in 2026 (improved but still a source of elevated maintenance and disruption risk).
Balance Sheet & Financing Needs
Gross interest expense expected around $580 million in 2026. Management plans to repay approximately $800 million of debt in 2026 and intends to raise approximately $500 million in new financing; gross debt peaked in 2025 and leverage improvement depends on Jet Forward EBITDA ramp.
Capacity Reductions and Year-Over-Year Revenue Impact
2025 capacity was proactively reduced (about 1.6% cited in script; elsewhere 'nearly two points'), which pressured top-line results; despite Jet Forward gains, total EBIT declined year-over-year (management attributes decline primarily to macro pressures).
Execution Risk on New Initiatives and Timing
Several key initiatives (domestic first class rollout, Paisley ancillary rollouts, remaining Blue Sky features, Boston lounge opening) are timing-sensitive—domestic first deliveries begin in Q3 with ~20% of fleet retrofitted by year-end and majority by 2027—delays could push expected benefits into later periods.
Company Guidance
JetBlue guided 2026 to breakeven or better operating margin, underpinning that outlook with a full‑year plan of ~3.5 points of capacity growth and ~3.5 points of unit‑revenue improvement (company RASM guidance 2%–5% on capacity growth of 2.5%–4.5%; Q1 capacity +0.5%–3.5% and Q1 unit revenue flat to +4%, with a <1‑point RASM headwind from Caribbean airspace closures), while targeting CASM ex‑fuel growth of 1%–3% for the year (Q1 CASM ex‑fuel +3.5%–5.5%), fuel midpoints of $2.34 for Q1 and $2.27 for the year, and ~1.5% ASM/gal fuel efficiency in 2026 (≈5% vs. three years) that they estimate delivers roughly $100M of fuel savings; Jet Forward is expected to supply $310M of incremental EBIT in 2026 (after $305M in 2025) for a $615M total incremental contribution this year and a $850M–$950M target for 2027, supported by RASM drivers of ~1 point from loyalty, 0.75 point from product enhancements, 0.75 from Blue Sky/Paisley and 0.5 from network/satisfaction, CapEx of ≈$900M (14 deliveries, down from $1.1B/20 deliveries in 2025) with planned annual CapEx <$1B through the decade, liquidity of $2.5B (ex. $600M revolver), ~$800M of planned debt repayments (including $325M convertible), an intended ~$500M financing raise backed by ~$6.5B of unencumbered assets, estimated gross interest of ~$580M, and a path to positive free cash flow by 2027.JetBlue Airways Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial profile is weak: persistent net losses, sharply weaker 2025 revenue vs. 2024, deteriorating cash generation (negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow recently), and materially higher leverage (debt-to-equity rising to ~4.4x in 2025) reduce flexibility and raise financial risk.Income Statement
Revenue has been broadly flat to down recently (2025 down sharply vs. 2024), and profitability remains pressured with negative operating profit and net losses across every year shown (2020–2025). A positive is improving cost efficiency versus the worst pandemic year and stronger gross margin in 2025 versus 2024, but the company still has not returned to sustained positive earnings, keeping the income profile weak and volatile.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage has risen materially: debt-to-equity moved from ~1.2–1.6x (2021–2023) to 3.5x in 2024 and 4.4x in 2025, while equity declined. Returns on equity are consistently negative, reflecting ongoing losses and limiting balance-sheet flexibility. This higher debt load is the key financial risk if operating performance does not improve.28
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation has deteriorated: operating cash flow turned slightly negative in 2025, and free cash flow is deeply negative in recent years (worse in 2024 and still heavily negative in 2025). While 2021 showed strong positive operating and free cash flow, the more recent trend suggests higher cash burn and greater reliance on financing/leverage to fund operations and investment.24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.06B | 9.28B | 9.62B | 9.16B | 6.04B |
| Gross Profit | 3.07B | 2.29B | 2.32B | 1.97B | 890.00M |
| EBITDA | 494.00M | 490.00M | 526.00M | 349.00M | -418.00M |
| Net Income | -602.00M | -795.00M | -310.00M | -362.00M | -182.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 18.63B | 16.84B | 15.33B | 14.45B | 14.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.26B | 3.61B | 1.57B | 1.39B | 2.84B |
| Total Debt | 10.26B | 9.14B | 5.93B | 4.38B | 4.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.51B | 14.20B | 11.99B | 10.88B | 11.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.12B | 2.64B | 3.34B | 3.56B | 3.85B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -915.00M | -1.35B | -806.00M | -544.00M | 647.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -94.00M | 144.00M | 400.00M | 379.00M | 1.64B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 658.00M | -3.08B | -1.38B | -908.00M | -704.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -417.00M | 3.77B | 1.11B | -360.00M | -830.00M |
JetBlue Airways Technical Analysis
Positive
5.73
Price Trends
5.24
Positive
4.87
Positive
4.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Positive
51.68
Neutral
38.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JBLU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.72, above the 50-day MA of 5.24, and above the 200-day MA of 4.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JBLU.
JetBlue Airways Risk Analysis
JetBlue Airways disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JetBlue Airways reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
JetBlue Airways Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $24.88B | 64.26 | 4.82% | 1.73% | 0.65% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $1.06B | 20.82 | 8.83% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
56 Neutral | $6.02B | 59.98 | 2.36% | ― | 31.50% | -49.15% | |
52 Neutral | $1.07B | -7.69 | -27.87% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% | |
50 Neutral | $2.12B | -3.44 | -25.29% | ― | -2.49% | 47.88% | |
47 Neutral | $8.68B | 79.17 | ― | ― | 1.27% | 118.64% |
* Industrials Sector Average
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
5.73
-0.73
-11.30%
ALK
Alaska Air
52.51
-18.89
-26.46%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
50.64
21.04
71.06%
AAL
American Airlines
13.15
-1.98
-13.09%
SNCY
Sun Country Airlines Holdings
19.91
3.16
18.87%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
4.64
-2.86
-38.13%
JetBlue Airways Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
JetBlue outlines 2026 outlook amid JetForward progress
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, JetBlue Airways reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results that showed modest declines in capacity and revenue but continued progress under its JetForward transformation program, which delivered $305 million of incremental EBIT in 2025, above target. While macroeconomic pressures kept the carrier from returning to profitability, JetBlue cited a second consecutive year of improved operational reliability, higher customer satisfaction scores, strong demand and ancillary revenue, as well as strategic initiatives including the Blue Sky collaboration with United Airlines, lounge expansion, domestic first-class rollout, fleet simplification and capital expenditure cuts of about $3 billion for 2026–2029. For 2026, management guided to a return to measured growth, low unit cost increases, and breakeven or better adjusted operating margins, supported by additional JetForward EBIT, a constructive demand and capacity backdrop, and ample liquidity of $2.5 billion at year-end 2025, positioning the airline for significant margin improvement despite ongoing engine-related aircraft groundings.
The most recent analyst rating on (JBLU) stock is a Sell with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JetBlue Airways stock, see the JBLU Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
JetBlue Airways Updates Bylaws with New Amendments
Neutral
Dec 12, 2025
On December 9, 2025, JetBlue Airways Corporation’s Board of Directors approved amendments to the company’s bylaws, which became effective immediately. These amendments clarify procedural requirements for stockholder nominations, update proxy access provisions in line with Delaware law, and revise the process for director elections and indemnification terms. The changes also designate exclusive legal forums for certain actions and claims, while removing obsolete provisions and incorporating technical updates.
The most recent analyst rating on (JBLU) stock is a Sell with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JetBlue Airways stock, see the JBLU Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
JetBlue Airways Updates on Q4 2025 Operations
Neutral
Dec 2, 2025
JetBlue Airways announced an operational and financial update for its expected fourth quarter 2025 results, highlighting that demand remained healthy despite disruptions. The company’s operations were impacted by Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and FAA-related cancellations in November, leading to a reduction in available seat mile growth and increased non-fuel unit costs. JetBlue completed necessary software updates on its A320 and A321 fleet following an FAA directive, resuming normal operations and continuing to assess potential financial impacts.
The most recent analyst rating on (JBLU) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JetBlue Airways stock, see the JBLU Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.