Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.90M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.73
• Revenue Growth: 1.77%
• EPS Growth: -1964.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,906
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 228,950,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,947,020
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,904,826
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.29
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -264.50
• 1Y Price Target: $5.63
• Price Target Upside: 8.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(5.57% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is held back primarily by weak and inconsistent financial performance (renewed 2025 losses, multi-year cash burn, and historically high leverage). Offsetting factors include improving intermediate technical signals and a credible turnaround framework from the latest earnings call, but near-term guidance remains loss-making and execution/labor risks are meaningful.

Positive Factors

Loyalty & Ancillary Revenue

Material loyalty and ancillary momentum creates higher-margin, more recurring revenue that cushions ticket-cycle volatility. Strong loyalty cash flows also support financing capacity (revolver backed by loyalty assets) and improve long-term unit revenue stability.

Fleet Rightsizing & Cost Savings

A quantified $200M cost-savings program and AerCap lease terminations reduce fixed rent expense and improve maintenance profile and fleet productivity. These structural actions can sustainably raise margins and lower unit costs as benefits fully phase in by 2027.

Strengthened Governance & Leadership

Adding a seasoned finance executive to audit and safety oversight improves board independence and financial discipline. Stronger governance supports credible execution of turnaround initiatives and enhances stakeholder confidence in multi-year restructuring.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Persistent negative free cash flow and intermittent operating cash flow limit internal funding for fleet, maintenance, and network investments. Ongoing cash burn forces reliance on external liquidity, raising execution and refinancing risk in a cyclical industry.

Multi‑Year High Leverage

Historically elevated debt levels have constrained financial flexibility and increased refinancing exposure during downturns. Even with an improved 2025 debt entry, thin equity and volatile earnings leave balance-sheet resilience limited over the medium term.

Operational & Labor Risks

Unresolved pilot negotiations and acknowledged poor on-time performance/cancellations threaten schedule reliability and utilization gains. Labor outcomes or continued operational disruption could raise costs and delay realization of utilization and cost-savings targets.

Frontier Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., a low-fare airline company, provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas. It offers its services through direct distribution channels, including its website, mobile app, and call center. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising, 16 A320ceos, 73 A320neos, and 21 A321ceos. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Frontier Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for its flights, which are offered at low base fares. The company's ultra-low-cost business model enables it to earn additional income through ancillary revenue streams, such as fees for checked baggage, seat selection, and in-flight services. Frontier also engages in partnerships with other airlines and travel-related services to enhance its offerings and customer experience. Key factors contributing to its earnings include operational efficiency, strategic route planning, and maintaining a cost-effective fleet, which allows the company to offer competitive pricing while maximizing profitability.

Frontier Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials screen weak and volatile: 2025 revenue fell ~13% vs. 2024 and results swung back to a net loss with negative operating profit/EBITDA. Cash generation is a key concern with mostly negative free cash flow and weak/negative operating cash flow across multiple years, increasing reliance on external liquidity. Balance-sheet risk has been elevated given multi-year very high leverage (2021–2024), despite the 2025 debt figure showing a potentially major improvement.

Income Statement

Revenue grew strongly coming out of 2020–2022, but momentum has weakened: 2025 revenue declined about 13% versus 2024. Profitability remains inconsistent—2024 delivered modest profitability (about a 2% net margin), but 2025 swung back to a net loss with negative operating profit and EBITDA. Gross margin has improved meaningfully versus the pandemic period, yet the sharp margin compression in 2025 highlights earnings volatility and sensitivity to cost and demand swings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has been a key risk: debt was very high relative to equity in 2021–2024 (debt-to-equity roughly 5x–7x+), which limits flexibility in a cyclical industry. Equity is positive but relatively thin versus the asset base, and returns on equity have been volatile—positive in 2024 but turning sharply negative in 2025 due to losses. The 2025 entry shows zero debt, which is a major year-over-year change and would be very positive if accurate, but overall balance-sheet quality still screens as pressured given the multi-year high leverage and earnings volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak and inconsistent. Free cash flow has been negative in most years (2020, 2022–2025), including a further deterioration in 2025 versus 2024. Operating cash flow has also been negative in 2022–2024, and is shown as zero in 2025, suggesting limited internally generated cash to fund operations and investment. While 2021 was a notable bright spot with positive operating and free cash flow, the overall trend points to ongoing cash burn and higher reliance on external financing or liquidity buffers.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.72B	3.77B	3.59B	3.33B	2.06B
Gross Profit	1.32B	1.94B	302.00M	282.00M	-202.00M
EBITDA	-58.00M	122.00M	83.00M	10.00M	-77.00M
Net Income	-137.00M	85.00M	-11.00M	-37.00M	-102.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.22B	6.15B	4.99B	4.50B	4.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	671.00M	740.00M	609.00M	761.00M	918.00M
Total Debt	9.53B	4.47B	3.46B	2.93B	2.85B
Total Liabilities	6.73B	5.55B	4.49B	3.99B	3.71B
Stockholders Equity	491.00M	604.00M	507.00M	509.00M	530.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-624.00M	-158.00M	-348.00M	-230.00M	153.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-525.00M	-82.00M	-261.00M	-78.00M	216.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-99.00M	-75.00M	-90.00M	-154.00M	-67.00M
Financing Cash Flow	555.00M	288.00M	199.00M	75.00M	391.00M

Frontier Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.21
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULCC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.38, above the 50-day MA of 5.20, and above the 200-day MA of 4.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULCC.

Frontier Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SKYW	74 Outperform	$4.26B	9.85	16.62%	―	19.27%	78.26%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SNCY	57 Neutral	$1.12B	20.90	8.83%	―	4.27%	28.47%
ALGT	54 Neutral	$1.99B	-40.52	-4.29%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
VLRS	54 Neutral	$1.18B	-18.65	-21.64%	―	-6.55%	-133.03%
ULCC	52 Neutral	$1.20B	-8.43	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%
JBLU	50 Neutral	$2.39B	-3.55	-25.29%	―	-2.49%	47.88%

Frontier Group Holdings Corporate Events

Frontier Group Adds Independent Director to Board, Committees

On February 5, 2026, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from eleven to twelve members and appointed veteran finance executive Anthony D. Salcido as a Class II independent director, with his initial term running until the 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting. Salcido was simultaneously named to the Audit Committee and the Safety & Security Committee, reinforcing the board’s financial oversight and governance capabilities.

Announced publicly on February 9, 2026, the move brings to Frontier the expertise of a former Chief Accounting Officer of Toyota Motors North America, who has held multiple audit and finance leadership roles in corporate and nonprofit sectors. Salcido will receive standard non-employee director cash and equity compensation, and his appointment is expected to strengthen Frontier’s financial discipline and board independence as it pursues its ultra-low-cost growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Sell with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.

Frontier Group Holdings Names Dempsey CEO, Updates Outlook

On January 7, 2026, Frontier Group Holdings’ board confirmed James G. Dempsey as president and chief executive officer and appointed him to the board as a Class III director, formalizing his transition from interim CEO, a role he had held since December 15, 2025. The board’s compensation committee approved a substantial pay package aligned with other top executives, including a higher base salary, an increased target cash bonus and significant long-term equity and performance stock unit awards that tie a large portion of his compensation to Frontier’s share-price performance over a four-year period. On January 8, 2026, the company also updated its guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, saying it now expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to come in at the high end of its prior range of $0.04 to $0.20, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated revenue that offset the drag from a U.S. government shutdown and underscoring management’s confidence as Dempsey takes the helm.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.

Frontier Group Holdings Announces CEO Departure

On December 15, 2025, Frontier Group Holdings announced the departure of Barry L. Biffle as CEO, with James G. Dempsey stepping in as Interim CEO while retaining his role as President. This leadership change is part of Frontier’s strategy to continue its growth and maintain its position as a leading low-cost airline in the U.S. The company also reiterated its fourth-quarter 2025 guidance, indicating stability in its financial outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.