Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)
NASDAQ:ULCC
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Frontier Group Holdings
(NASDAQ:ULCC)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-1.10% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial fundamentals—renewed losses, ongoing cash burn, and very high leverage—despite strong top-line growth. Offsetting this, technicals are constructive with the stock trending above key moving averages, and the latest earnings call outlined credible, measurable actions to improve unit revenue and structurally lower costs, though near-term execution and labor/operations risks remain material.
Positive Factors
Unit revenue recovery
Sustained RASM and unit revenue improvement (>10% in early bookings) indicates the company can extract higher yields from demand and ancillary mix. Over 2-6 months this supports margin recovery and cash generation if sustained, anchoring profitability improvement beyond transient pricing moves.
Negative Factors
Extremely high leverage
A very thin equity cushion versus large debt load materially raises solvency and refinancing risk. High leverage limits strategic flexibility, increases sensitivity to revenue shocks and interest costs, and makes multi-quarter execution riskier if cash generation does not quickly normalize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Unit revenue recovery
Sustained RASM and unit revenue improvement (>10% in early bookings) indicates the company can extract higher yields from demand and ancillary mix. Over 2-6 months this supports margin recovery and cash generation if sustained, anchoring profitability improvement beyond transient pricing moves.
Read all positive factors
Frontier Group Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Available Seat Miles
Available seat miles (ASM) measure total seat capacity offered and are a key supply metric for airlines. Tracking ASM versus demand shows whether Frontier is expanding responsibly, risking overcapacity, or optimizing utilization to improve unit revenue.
Available seat miles (ASM) measure total seat capacity offered and are a key supply metric for airlines. Tracking ASM versus demand shows whether Frontier is expanding responsibly, risking overcapacity, or optimizing utilization to improve unit revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFrontier Group Holdings (ULCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.06B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.18
Revenue Growth-0.47%
EPS Growth-632.83%
CountryUS
Employees7,906
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.61
Shares Outstanding229,789,340
10 Day Avg. Volume6,770,389
30 Day Avg. Volume6,534,971
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-1.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-19.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.33Price Target Upside-4.76% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.67B
Frontier Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., a low-fare airline company, provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americ...
How the Company Makes Money
Frontier primarily generates revenue by selling air travel to passengers, with its business model centered on a low base fare complemented by a large set of optional, separately priced products and services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Passen...
Frontier Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a clear, actionable turnaround plan with quantifiable levers: fleet rightsizing, a $200M cost-savings target (including ~$90M rent savings), a moderated ~10% long-term growth target, strong loyalty and ancillary momentum (loyalty revenue +30% in Q4), and early RASM/unit revenue improvements (>10% trend). However, 2026 is a transition year with operational reliability issues to remediate, pilot labor negotiations unresolved, one-time redelivery costs to finalize, and timing risk for realizing full cost and utilization benefits (largely realized by 2027). Overall, the company presented tangible progress and concrete initiatives but with meaningful near-term execution and labor risks.Positive Updates
Fleet Rightsizing Agreement with AerCap
Nonbinding agreement to early terminate 24 aircraft leases (effective in Q2) with AerCap, plus intent for an additional ~10 sale-leasebacks; deal has no 2026 liquidity penalty and is expected to improve maintenance profile and fleet productivity over the next 3–5 years.
Negative Updates
Operational Reliability and Customer Experience Issues
Company acknowledged historically poor cancellation rates and on-time performance; reducing cancellations and improving OTP are explicit strategic priorities and management said 'status quo is not acceptable,' indicating significant operational challenges to address.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Fleet Rightsizing Agreement with AerCap
Nonbinding agreement to early terminate 24 aircraft leases (effective in Q2) with AerCap, plus intent for an additional ~10 sale-leasebacks; deal has no 2026 liquidity penalty and is expected to improve maintenance profile and fleet productivity over the next 3–5 years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Frontier framed 2026 as a transition year with a full‑year EPS range of roughly $(0.40) to $0.50 (one‑time noncash costs tied to the fleet transaction expected to be removed on a non‑GAAP basis); a long‑term growth cadence reset to ~10% annually (about 50% infill/50% new markets); a 2026 delivery cadence of 24 aircraft (6 in Q1, 8 in Q2, 5 in Q3, 5 in Q4) offset by early termination of 24 leases in Q2 so the fleet starts and ends 2026 at ~176 aircraft (similar into 2027); a target to lift utilization toward ~11.5 block hours (versus ~9 hours last year) by ~summer 2027; a $200 million target of annual run‑rate cost savings by 2027 (including ≈$90 million of annual rent savings from the 24 terminations); RASM trends running +10%+ year‑over‑year in early bookings (notably into April/May); expected PDP deposit reductions to leave year‑end PDP balance of $170–$210 million; and continued loyalty momentum (loyalty revenue +30%+ in Q4 and third consecutive quarter of double‑digit loyalty growth).Frontier Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.80B | 3.72B | 3.77B | 3.59B | 3.33B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | 663.00M | 1.32B | 1.94B | 302.00M | 282.00M | -202.00M |
| EBITDA | -277.00M | -58.00M | 122.00M | 83.00M | 10.00M | -77.00M |
| Net Income | -366.00M | -137.00M | 85.00M | -11.00M | -37.00M | -102.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.02B | 7.22B | 6.15B | 4.99B | 4.50B | 4.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 772.00M | 671.00M | 740.00M | 609.00M | 761.00M | 918.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.25B | 5.46B | 4.47B | 3.46B | 2.93B | 2.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.79B | 6.73B | 5.55B | 4.49B | 3.99B | 3.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 222.00M | 491.00M | 604.00M | 507.00M | 509.00M | 530.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -481.00M | -624.00M | -158.00M | -348.00M | -230.00M | 153.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -399.00M | -525.00M | -82.00M | -261.00M | -78.00M | 216.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.00M | -99.00M | -75.00M | -90.00M | -154.00M | -67.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 522.00M | 555.00M | 288.00M | 199.00M | 75.00M | 391.00M |
Frontier Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
4.55
Price Trends
3.95
Positive
4.45
Negative
4.49
Negative
Market Momentum
0.19
Positive
47.40
Neutral
21.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.37, above the 50-day MA of 3.95, and above the 200-day MA of 4.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ULCC.
Frontier Group Holdings Risk Analysis
Frontier Group Holdings disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Frontier Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Frontier Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $3.24B | 9.03 | 16.00% | ― | 12.26% | 18.57% | |
65 Neutral | $876.36M | 9.24 | 6.44% | ― | 4.36% | -25.89% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $2.01B | 8.68 | -3.25% | ― | 3.31% | 82.72% | |
50 Neutral | $1.06B | -0.74 | -88.57% | ― | -0.47% | -632.83% | |
49 Neutral | $734.47M | -2.93 | -50.21% | ― | 4.23% | -405.62% | |
46 Neutral | $1.70B | -1.28 | -33.13% | ― | -0.52% | -138.22% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
4.25
0.52
13.94%
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Frontier Group Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Frontier Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Executive Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 15, 2026
At its May 14, 2026 annual meeting, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. shareholders elected Andrew S. Broderick, Bernard L. Han, Anthony D. Salcido and Alejandro D. Wolff to three-year terms as Class II directors, reaffirming the existing board slate. ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Frontier Group Adjusts Airbus Orders, Reduces Leased Fleet
Negative
Mar 17, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Frontier Airlines amended its long-standing Airbus A320 family purchase agreement, deferring delivery of 69 A320neo aircraft from the 2027–2030 window out to 2031–2033, reshaping its long-term fleet growth profile. T...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Frontier Group Reaffirms Q1 Outlook Amid Fuel Headwinds
Negative
Mar 17, 2026
Frontier Group Holdings updated its first-quarter 2026 outlook, maintaining its adjusted diluted loss per share guidance between $0.32 and $0.44, as stronger-than-expected revenue was offset by a spike in jet fuel prices and operational disruption...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.