Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $920.17M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.77M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.70
• Revenue Growth: 5.99%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,906
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 94
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 227,764,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,780,382
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,766,471
• PEG Ratio: -0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $4.92
• Price Target Upside: 24.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▲(13.64%Upside)

Frontier Group Holdings' stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance, which shows promising revenue growth and debt management but is offset by weak profitability and cash flow. Technical analysis and valuation provide moderate support, indicating potential for growth, while earnings call and corporate events highlight ongoing challenges from macroeconomic factors. Overall, the stock presents a balanced risk-reward profile with room for improvement.

Positive Factors

Capacity Management

Capacity declines in the second half, led by off-peak flying cuts, are expected to provide some good news for Frontier.

Financial Performance

Frontier remains on a path to double-digit margins by the summer, indicating plenty of upside to come if execution can continue.

Market Positioning

Frontier has made strides in growing some premium cabin services, relative to its US discount peers.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

Tariffs may pressure sale/leaseback (SLB) activity, while the carrier likely faces materially higher labor costs than its peers, as it negotiates contract amendments with its pilots.

Profitability Challenges

The airline is not expected to generate pre-tax profits in FY25 or FY26, maintaining a Hold rating and a $3 price target.

Revenue Outlook

Management now expects revenue growth of 5% versus consensus of 13.8%, a pre-tax margin of -5% versus consensus of -1.2%, and a net loss per share between ($0.20) and ($0.24) versus consensus of ($0.04).

Frontier Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., a low-fare airline company, provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas. It offers its services through direct distribution channels, including its website, mobile app, and call center. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising, 16 A320ceos, 73 A320neos, and 21 A321ceos. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Frontier Group Holdings makes money primarily through ticket sales, ancillary fees, and other revenue streams associated with its ultra-low-cost business model. The company's revenue model focuses on offering low base fares for its flights while charging additional fees for a variety of services and amenities such as seat selection, baggage, in-flight refreshments, and priority boarding. This unbundled pricing strategy allows passengers to pay only for the services they choose to use, enabling Frontier to maximize its earnings through ancillary revenue. Additionally, the company benefits from partnerships with other travel-related services, such as car rentals and hotel bookings, which contribute to its overall revenue. Operational efficiency, high aircraft utilization, and a young, fuel-efficient fleet are also key factors that aid in reducing costs and enhancing profitability.

Frontier Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Frontier Group Holdings exhibits solid revenue growth and improved debt management, yet struggles with low profitability margins and weak cash flow generation. These factors highlight significant progress but also areas needing further improvement for long-term financial health.

Income Statement

Frontier Group Holdings has shown significant revenue growth over the years, particularly a 5.19% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved drastically, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains low, reflecting persistent challenges in achieving profitability. The company shifted from a net loss in 2023 to a net income in 2024, which is a positive sign.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a strong recovery with zero debt in 2024, which substantially improves the debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio improved as well, showcasing a stronger capital structure. However, stockholder's equity remains relatively low compared to total assets, indicating room for strengthening financial stability.

Cash Flow

Frontier showed improvement in free cash flow from a significant negative value in 2023 to a less negative figure in 2024. Despite this, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available for 2024 due to zero operating cash flow, limiting insights into cash generation efficiency. Free cash flow remains negative, signaling potential liquidity challenges.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.82B	3.77B	3.59B	3.33B	2.06B	1.25B
	Gross Profit
854.00M	1.94B	302.00M	282.00M	-202.00M	-390.00M
	EBIT
43.00M	58.00M	-3.00M	-35.00M	-117.00M	-365.00M
	EBITDA
56.00M	122.00M	83.00M	3.00M	-99.00M	-327.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
68.00M	85.00M	-11.00M	-37.00M	-102.00M	-225.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
686.00M	740.00M	609.00M	761.00M	918.00M	378.00M
	Total Assets
6.48B	6.15B	4.99B	4.50B	4.24B	3.55B
	Total Debt
0.00	4.47B	3.46B	2.93B	2.85B	2.61B
	Net Debt
4.11B	3.73B	2.85B	2.17B	1.93B	2.23B
	Total Liabilities
5.91B	5.55B	4.49B	3.99B	3.71B	3.24B
	Stockholders Equity
570.00M	604.00M	507.00M	509.00M	530.00M	310.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-234.00M	-158.00M	-348.00M	-230.00M	153.00M	-573.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
-60.00M	-82.00M	-261.00M	-78.00M	216.00M	-557.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-97.00M	-75.00M	-90.00M	-154.00M	-67.00M	11.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
307.00M	288.00M	199.00M	75.00M	391.00M	156.00M

Frontier Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.96
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.99, above the 50-day MA of 3.79, and below the 200-day MA of 5.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ULCC.

Frontier Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNCY	74 Outperform	$633.17M	11.97	9.46%	―	2.24%	-20.24%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$4.48B	12.24	5.32%	248.54%	4.09%	-12.10%
VLRS	65 Neutral	$547.04M	13.02	14.19%	―	-7.43%	-62.49%
ULCC	62 Neutral	$920.17M	13.39	12.71%	―	5.99%	―
ALGT	57 Neutral	$1.01B	―	-17.12%	1.04%	1.54%	-466.46%
JBLU	48 Neutral	$1.85B	―	-11.30%	―	-3.02%	66.90%
AZULQ	45 Neutral	$162.41M	―		―	-5.34%	-125.18%

Frontier Group Holdings Corporate Events

Frontier Group Holdings Reaffirms Q2 2025 Loss Guidance

Frontier Group Holdings reaffirmed its adjusted loss per share guidance for Q2 2025, initially disclosed on May 1, 2025, ahead of an investor conference on May 22, 2025. The company noted stable travel demand following earlier disruptions and expects positive revenue per available seat mile, despite lower capacity compared to the previous year. CEO Barry Biffle highlighted stabilized booking trends for May and early summer, with load factors slightly higher and RASM up in low single-digits. The company aims for profitability in the second half of 2025, leveraging commercial investments and cost management, with unchanged capacity plans for the rest of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.

Frontier Group Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 15, 2025, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key decisions were made. The stockholders elected four directors to the board, approved amendments to the company’s certificate of incorporation, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor, and approved executive compensation for the fiscal year 2024. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to adapt its governance and operational strategies, particularly in light of its loss of controlled company status in 2024.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.

Frontier Group’s CAO Rescinds Resignation, Salary Increased

On March 7, 2025, Josh Wetzel, Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of Frontier Group Holdings, initially submitted his resignation, which was later rescinded on May 12, 2025. Following his decision to stay, Mr. Wetzel’s annual base salary was increased to $330,000, while other compensation arrangements remained unchanged, ensuring his continued role and contributions to the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.

Frontier Group Holdings Lowers Q1 2025 Revenue Guidance

Frontier Group Holdings has updated its guidance for the first quarter of 2025, expecting a revenue growth of approximately five percent, which is lower than anticipated due to weakened demand in March. The company has responded by reducing scheduled capacity in the second quarter and focusing on maximizing liquidity through cost management. Preliminary results indicate a first-quarter adjusted pre-tax loss margin of about five percent and an adjusted net loss per share between $0.20 and $0.24. Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was approximately $885 million.