Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $899.78M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.73
• Revenue Growth: 1.77%
• EPS Growth: -1964.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,906
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 228,950,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,312,800
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,979,698
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -130.32
• 1Y Price Target: $5.75
• Price Target Upside: 51.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.74B

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.50 ▼(-7.65% Downside)

Frontier Group Holdings faces significant financial challenges, with negative profitability and high leverage being the most impactful factors. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. While the earnings call highlighted some strategic initiatives and expansions, the financial instability remains a major concern.

Positive Factors

Route Expansion

Expanding routes enhances market presence and revenue potential, leveraging opportunities from competitors' capacity reductions.

Loyalty Program Growth

Significant growth in loyalty revenues indicates strong customer retention and potential for increased ancillary revenue.

Operational Reliability

Improved operational reliability enhances customer satisfaction and can lead to increased market share and revenue stability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting long-term financial stability and growth.

Negative Profitability

Negative profitability margins suggest challenges in cost management and revenue generation, affecting long-term viability.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flows indicate potential liquidity issues, constraining investment in growth and operational improvements.

Frontier Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., a low-fare airline company, provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas. It offers its services through direct distribution channels, including its website, mobile app, and call center. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising, 16 A320ceos, 73 A320neos, and 21 A321ceos. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Frontier Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through its passenger ticket sales, which are offered at low base fares with additional fees for optional services. Key revenue streams include ancillary revenues from baggage fees, seat selection, and onboard food and beverage sales. The company also benefits from partnerships with various travel-related services, including car rental and hotel bookings, which provide additional income opportunities. The focus on operational efficiency and cost control further enhances profitability, allowing Frontier to maintain competitive pricing while maximizing earnings from add-on services.

Frontier Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Frontier Group Holdings faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue growth, negative profitability margins, and high leverage. The company's cash flow position is weak, with negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential financial instability.

Income Statement

Frontier Group Holdings has experienced fluctuating revenue growth, with a recent decline in the TTM period. Gross profit margins have decreased significantly from the previous year, and net profit margins have turned negative. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also weak, indicating challenges in operational efficiency and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has increased in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity is negative, reflecting poor profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative, with a declining trend in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high, but this is due to negative net income, which is not a positive indicator.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.73B	3.77B	3.59B	3.33B	2.06B	1.25B
Gross Profit	941.00M	1.94B	302.00M	282.00M	-202.00M	-390.00M
EBITDA	-42.00M	122.00M	83.00M	10.00M	-77.00M	-327.00M
Net Income	-136.00M	85.00M	-11.00M	-37.00M	-102.00M	-225.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.70B	6.15B	4.99B	4.50B	4.24B	3.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	566.00M	740.00M	609.00M	761.00M	918.00M	378.00M
Total Debt	0.00	4.47B	3.46B	2.93B	2.85B	2.61B
Total Liabilities	6.27B	5.55B	4.49B	3.99B	3.71B	3.24B
Stockholders Equity	434.00M	604.00M	507.00M	509.00M	530.00M	310.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-85.00M	-158.00M	-348.00M	-230.00M	153.00M	-573.00M
Operating Cash Flow	87.00M	-82.00M	-261.00M	-78.00M	216.00M	-557.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-187.00M	-75.00M	-90.00M	-154.00M	-67.00M	11.00M
Financing Cash Flow	524.00M	288.00M	199.00M	75.00M	391.00M	156.00M

Frontier Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.79
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.02, below the 50-day MA of 4.53, and below the 200-day MA of 4.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ULCC.

Frontier Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SKYW	70 Outperform	$3.95B	9.39	17.42%	―	19.27%	78.26%
SNCY	68 Neutral	$659.46M	11.73	9.99%	―	4.27%	28.47%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALGT	55 Neutral	$1.25B	―	-25.37%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
VLRS	49 Neutral	$774.33M	―	-21.54%	―	-6.02%	-132.85%
JBLU	46 Neutral	$1.60B	―	-19.09%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
ULCC	44 Neutral	$899.78M	―	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%

Frontier Group Holdings Corporate Events

Frontier Airlines’ Q3 2025 Financial Results Overview

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., the parent company of Frontier Airlines, operates in the aviation sector, focusing on providing low-cost air travel with a fleet of fuel-efficient aircraft. The company recently released its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting both challenges and strategic advancements.

Frontier Airlines Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., the parent company of Frontier Airlines, operates in the airline industry, focusing on providing low-cost air travel with a commitment to fuel efficiency and environmental sustainability.

Frontier Group Holdings’ Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiments and Future Outlook

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. recently held its earnings call, presenting a mixed sentiment characterized by both achievements and challenges. The company reported growth in loyalty and cardholder metrics, as well as new route expansions and operational efficiencies. However, these positive aspects were counterbalanced by a decline in total revenue, pre-tax and net losses, and challenges stemming from adverse weather conditions, air traffic control delays, and weak consumer sentiment.