Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.14B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.90M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.77
• Revenue Growth: 1.77%
• EPS Growth: -1964.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,906
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 228,950,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,947,020
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,904,826
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -130.32
• 1Y Price Target: $5.25
• Price Target Upside: 5.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▼(-9.46% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, high leverage, and negative operating cash flow). Offsetting factors include moderately positive earnings-call momentum and a favorable guidance update, while technicals are neutral and valuation remains hard to justify due to negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Ancillary & loyalty revenue growth

Sizable growth in loyalty and ancillary income diversifies Frontier’s revenue mix beyond fares. Higher per-passenger loyalty revenue improves unit economics, supports margin recovery, and provides recurring, scalable revenue less sensitive to ticket-price competition over the medium term.

Network expansion

Aggressive route additions expand market reach and slot presence in key metros and leisure markets, enabling scale advantages and denser feed for ancillary sales. If executed profitably, expanded network supports structural revenue growth and competitive positioning over the next several quarters.

Management continuity & industry experience

Elevating an internal executive with prior CFO tenure and low-cost carrier experience increases strategic continuity and operational credibility. Experienced leadership can better execute cost discipline, yield initiatives and network optimization critical to durable profitability in the ULCC model.

Negative Factors

Persistent losses & negative margins

Ongoing net losses and negative operating margins indicate the company has yet to sustainably convert revenue gains into profits. Structural profitability risk limits reinvestment capacity and heightens sensitivity to cost shocks, constraining long-term value creation unless margins recover.

Very high leverage

Extremely elevated leverage amplifies financial risk and reduces flexibility to fund growth or weather demand shocks. High debt service burdens limit capital allocation to fleet, routes, or loyalty investments and raises refinancing and covenant risk across the 2–6 month horizon and beyond.

Weak cash flow generation

Negative operating cash flow and sharply lower free cash flow constrain the firm’s ability to self-fund operations or invest in growth without external financing. This structural cash weakness increases reliance on debt/equity raises and elevates dilution or liquidity risk over the medium term.

Frontier Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., a low-fare airline company, provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas. It offers its services through direct distribution channels, including its website, mobile app, and call center. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising, 16 A320ceos, 73 A320neos, and 21 A321ceos. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Frontier Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for its flights, which are offered at low base fares. The company's ultra-low-cost business model enables it to earn additional income through ancillary revenue streams, such as fees for checked baggage, seat selection, and in-flight services. Frontier also engages in partnerships with other airlines and travel-related services to enhance its offerings and customer experience. Key factors contributing to its earnings include operational efficiency, strategic route planning, and maintaining a cost-effective fleet, which allows the company to offer competitive pricing while maximizing profitability.

Frontier Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Frontier Group Holdings is experiencing significant financial challenges. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability, the balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 11.59, and cash flow statements indicate liquidity issues with negative operating cash flow and a 59.52% decrease in free cash flow.

Income Statement

Frontier Group Holdings has faced declining revenue growth with a negative rate of -1.30% in the TTM period. The company also reported negative net profit and EBIT margins, indicating challenges in achieving profitability. The gross profit margin has significantly decreased from previous years, reflecting cost pressures or pricing challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a high debt-to-equity ratio of 11.59, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is negative, and free cash flow has decreased by 59.52% in the TTM period, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting difficulties in converting income into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.73B	3.77B	3.59B	3.33B	2.06B	1.25B
Gross Profit	941.00M	1.94B	302.00M	282.00M	-202.00M	-390.00M
EBITDA	-42.00M	122.00M	83.00M	10.00M	-77.00M	-327.00M
Net Income	-136.00M	85.00M	-11.00M	-37.00M	-102.00M	-225.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.70B	6.15B	4.99B	4.50B	4.24B	3.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	566.00M	740.00M	609.00M	761.00M	918.00M	378.00M
Total Debt	5.03B	4.47B	3.46B	2.93B	2.85B	2.61B
Total Liabilities	6.27B	5.55B	4.49B	3.99B	3.71B	3.24B
Stockholders Equity	434.00M	604.00M	507.00M	509.00M	530.00M	310.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-85.00M	-158.00M	-348.00M	-230.00M	153.00M	-573.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-128.00M	-82.00M	-261.00M	-78.00M	216.00M	-557.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-187.00M	-75.00M	-90.00M	-154.00M	-67.00M	11.00M
Financing Cash Flow	524.00M	288.00M	199.00M	75.00M	391.00M	156.00M

Frontier Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULCC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.90, above the 50-day MA of 4.62, and above the 200-day MA of 4.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULCC.

Frontier Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SKYW	74 Outperform	$3.86B	9.20	17.42%	―	19.27%	78.26%
SNCY	69 Neutral	$918.34M	16.37	9.99%	―	4.27%	28.47%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALGT	54 Neutral	$1.58B	―	-25.37%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
VLRS	54 Neutral	$1.01B	-15.80	-21.74%	―	-6.55%	-133.03%
JBLU	51 Neutral	$1.76B	-3.69	-19.09%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
ULCC	47 Neutral	$1.14B	-8.27	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%

Frontier Group Holdings Corporate Events

Frontier Group Holdings Names Dempsey CEO, Updates Outlook

On January 7, 2026, Frontier Group Holdings’ board confirmed James G. Dempsey as president and chief executive officer and appointed him to the board as a Class III director, formalizing his transition from interim CEO, a role he had held since December 15, 2025. The board’s compensation committee approved a substantial pay package aligned with other top executives, including a higher base salary, an increased target cash bonus and significant long-term equity and performance stock unit awards that tie a large portion of his compensation to Frontier’s share-price performance over a four-year period. On January 8, 2026, the company also updated its guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, saying it now expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to come in at the high end of its prior range of $0.04 to $0.20, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated revenue that offset the drag from a U.S. government shutdown and underscoring management’s confidence as Dempsey takes the helm.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.

Frontier Group Holdings Announces CEO Departure

On December 15, 2025, Frontier Group Holdings announced the departure of Barry L. Biffle as CEO, with James G. Dempsey stepping in as Interim CEO while retaining his role as President. This leadership change is part of Frontier’s strategy to continue its growth and maintain its position as a leading low-cost airline in the U.S. The company also reiterated its fourth-quarter 2025 guidance, indicating stability in its financial outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.