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Frontier Group Holdings
(NASDAQ:ULCC)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(75.82% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/08/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial fundamentals—return to losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and very high leverage with a thin equity buffer. This is partially offset by strong technical momentum (price above all major DMAs with supportive MACD/RSI) and modestly positive corporate actions that improve liquidity flexibility and signal fleet discipline, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Ultra-low-cost model & ancillary revenue
Frontier's durable ULCC model combines low base fares with high-margin ancillary products and a simplified, single-family fleet. Over months this supports unit-cost advantage, steady ancillary attach rates and resilience in revenue per passenger versus legacy carriers, aiding margin recovery when demand is stable.
Negative Factors
Extremely high leverage
Very high leverage leaves a thin equity buffer and makes the company highly sensitive to operational setbacks. Elevated debt limits financial flexibility, raises refinancing and covenant risk, and increases the chance that future losses or rate moves force dilutive capital actions or asset sales to shore up liquidity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Ultra-low-cost model & ancillary revenue
Frontier's durable ULCC model combines low base fares with high-margin ancillary products and a simplified, single-family fleet. Over months this supports unit-cost advantage, steady ancillary attach rates and resilience in revenue per passenger versus legacy carriers, aiding margin recovery when demand is stable.
Read all positive factors
Frontier Group Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Available Seat Miles
Available seat miles (ASM) measure total seat capacity offered and are a key supply metric for airlines. Tracking ASM versus demand shows whether Frontier is expanding responsibly, risking overcapacity, or optimizing utilization to improve unit revenue.
Available seat miles (ASM) measure total seat capacity offered and are a key supply metric for airlines. Tracking ASM versus demand shows whether Frontier is expanding responsibly, risking overcapacity, or optimizing utilization to improve unit revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFrontier Group Holdings (ULCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.79B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.16
Revenue Growth-0.47%
EPS Growth-632.83%
CountryUS
Employees7,906
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.61
Shares Outstanding229,789,340
10 Day Avg. Volume3,848,351
30 Day Avg. Volume4,423,673
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-1.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit26.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-22.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.67Price Target Upside46.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.68B
Frontier Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating as an ultra-low-cost carrier, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. facilitates air travel for passengers. Its flight network spans approximately 120 airports, reaching destinations throughout the United States and internationally across the Ame...
How the Company Makes Money
Frontier primarily makes money by selling air travel and related optional services. Its revenue model combines (1) passenger ticket revenue (base fares) and (2) ancillary revenue that customers pay on top of the base fare. Base fares are generated...
Frontier Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a clear, actionable turnaround plan with quantifiable levers: fleet rightsizing, a $200M cost-savings target (including ~$90M rent savings), a moderated ~10% long-term growth target, strong loyalty and ancillary momentum (loyalty revenue +30% in Q4), and early RASM/unit revenue improvements (>10% trend). However, 2026 is a transition year with operational reliability issues to remediate, pilot labor negotiations unresolved, one-time redelivery costs to finalize, and timing risk for realizing full cost and utilization benefits (largely realized by 2027). Overall, the company presented tangible progress and concrete initiatives but with meaningful near-term execution and labor risks.Positive Updates
Fleet Rightsizing Agreement with AerCap
Nonbinding agreement to early terminate 24 aircraft leases (effective in Q2) with AerCap, plus intent for an additional ~10 sale-leasebacks; deal has no 2026 liquidity penalty and is expected to improve maintenance profile and fleet productivity over the next 3–5 years.
Negative Updates
Operational Reliability and Customer Experience Issues
Company acknowledged historically poor cancellation rates and on-time performance; reducing cancellations and improving OTP are explicit strategic priorities and management said 'status quo is not acceptable,' indicating significant operational challenges to address.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Fleet Rightsizing Agreement with AerCap
Nonbinding agreement to early terminate 24 aircraft leases (effective in Q2) with AerCap, plus intent for an additional ~10 sale-leasebacks; deal has no 2026 liquidity penalty and is expected to improve maintenance profile and fleet productivity over the next 3–5 years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Frontier framed 2026 as a transition year with a full‑year EPS range of roughly $(0.40) to $0.50 (one‑time noncash costs tied to the fleet transaction expected to be removed on a non‑GAAP basis); a long‑term growth cadence reset to ~10% annually (about 50% infill/50% new markets); a 2026 delivery cadence of 24 aircraft (6 in Q1, 8 in Q2, 5 in Q3, 5 in Q4) offset by early termination of 24 leases in Q2 so the fleet starts and ends 2026 at ~176 aircraft (similar into 2027); a target to lift utilization toward ~11.5 block hours (versus ~9 hours last year) by ~summer 2027; a $200 million target of annual run‑rate cost savings by 2027 (including ≈$90 million of annual rent savings from the 24 terminations); RASM trends running +10%+ year‑over‑year in early bookings (notably into April/May); expected PDP deposit reductions to leave year‑end PDP balance of $170–$210 million; and continued loyalty momentum (loyalty revenue +30%+ in Q4 and third consecutive quarter of double‑digit loyalty growth).Frontier Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.80B | 3.72B | 3.77B | 3.59B | 3.33B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | 224.00M | 1.32B | 1.94B | 302.00M | 282.00M | -202.00M |
| EBITDA | -271.00M | -58.00M | 122.00M | 83.00M | 10.00M | -77.00M |
| Net Income | -366.00M | -137.00M | 85.00M | -11.00M | -37.00M | -102.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.02B | 7.22B | 6.15B | 4.99B | 4.50B | 4.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 772.00M | 671.00M | 740.00M | 609.00M | 761.00M | 918.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.25B | 5.46B | 4.47B | 3.46B | 2.93B | 2.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.79B | 6.73B | 5.55B | 4.49B | 3.99B | 3.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 222.00M | 491.00M | 604.00M | 507.00M | 509.00M | 530.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -481.00M | -624.00M | -158.00M | -348.00M | -230.00M | 153.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -399.00M | -525.00M | -82.00M | -261.00M | -78.00M | 216.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.00M | -99.00M | -75.00M | -90.00M | -154.00M | -67.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 522.00M | 555.00M | 288.00M | 199.00M | 75.00M | 391.00M |
Frontier Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
4.55
Price Trends
5.75
Positive
4.88
Positive
4.79
Positive
Market Momentum
0.58
Positive
58.01
Neutral
36.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULCC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.04, below the 50-day MA of 5.75, and below the 200-day MA of 4.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULCC.
Frontier Group Holdings Risk Analysis
Frontier Group Holdings disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Frontier Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Frontier Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $3.92B | 9.16 | 16.00% | ― | 12.26% | 18.57% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
51 Neutral | $3.11B | -55.85 | -3.25% | ― | 3.31% | 82.72% | |
50 Neutral | $1.79B | -4.57 | -88.57% | ― | -0.47% | -632.83% | |
50 Neutral | $2.25B | -2.95 | -33.13% | ― | -0.52% | -138.22% | |
44 Neutral | $1.07B | -8.48 | -50.21% | ― | 4.23% | -405.62% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
7.36
3.38
84.92%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
111.14
56.61
103.81%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
5.72
1.41
32.71%
SKYW
SkyWest
97.82
-8.86
-8.31%
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
9.08
4.70
107.31%
Frontier Group Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Frontier Group Signs Aircraft Sale Agreement to Rightsize Fleet
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Frontier Airlines entered into an agreement with existing lessor Avolon Leasing Ireland 3 Limited to sell 11 A321neo aircraft at the time of delivery from Frontier’s existing purchase commitments. The aircraft comprise thre...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Frontier Extends Barclays Partnership, Expands Loyalty Financing Facility
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 24, 2026, Frontier Airlines and Barclays Bank Delaware extended their long-standing co-branded credit card partnership by signing a Seventh Amendment to their Credit Card Affinity Agreement, lengthening the term from December 31, 2029 to J...
Executive/Board Changes
Frontier Group Announces Board Resignation and New Director
Neutral
Jun 12, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Frontier Group Holdings announced that director Andrew Broderick intends to resign from its Board of Directors, effective June 15, 2026, with the company stating his departure is not due to any disagreement over operations, polici...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Frontier Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Executive Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 15, 2026
At its May 14, 2026 annual meeting, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. shareholders elected Andrew S. Broderick, Bernard L. Han, Anthony D. Salcido and Alejandro D. Wolff to three-year terms as Class II directors, reaffirming the existing board slate. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.