Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $938.39M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.78
• Revenue Growth: 5.99%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,906
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 90
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 227,764,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,958,475
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,595,847
• PEG Ratio: -0.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.91
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 48.56
• 1Y Price Target: $5.17
• Price Target Upside: 25.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▼(-2.91%Downside)

Frontier Group Holdings faces significant financial and operational challenges, as evidenced by mixed financial performance and cautious earnings guidance. While technical indicators show neutral to slightly bullish trends, the company must address high leverage and improve cash flow management to enhance financial resilience. Valuation appears fair, but macroeconomic challenges and strategic adjustments will be crucial for future profitability.

Positive Factors

Capacity Management

Capacity declines in the second half, led by off-peak flying cuts, are expected to provide some good news for Frontier.

Market Adaptation

Frontier 2.0 continues to gain traction, pointing to meaningful upside to consensus estimates.

Operational Performance

The carrier appears to be posting better operational results than its discount peers – this includes Frontier now generating a smallish amount of positive FCF.

Negative Factors

Consumer Demand

Significant risks are seen to the airline's model due to adjustments legacy carriers are making to how they manage the booking curve.

Economic Environment

Recent tariff/consumer turmoil might impact Frontier’s operations more significantly than its network peers, owing to the former’s absence of international long haul.

Financial Performance

Management now expects revenue growth of 5% versus consensus of 13.8%, a pre-tax margin of -5% versus consensus of -1.2%, and a net loss per share between ($0.20) and ($0.24) versus consensus of ($0.04).

Frontier Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., a low-fare airline company, provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas. It offers its services through direct distribution channels, including its website, mobile app, and call center. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising, 16 A320ceos, 73 A320neos, and 21 A321ceos. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Frontier Group Holdings makes money primarily through ticket sales, ancillary fees, and other revenue streams associated with its ultra-low-cost business model. The company's revenue model focuses on offering low base fares for its flights while charging additional fees for a variety of services and amenities such as seat selection, baggage, in-flight refreshments, and priority boarding. This unbundled pricing strategy allows passengers to pay only for the services they choose to use, enabling Frontier to maximize its earnings through ancillary revenue. Additionally, the company benefits from partnerships with other travel-related services, such as car rentals and hotel bookings, which contribute to its overall revenue. Operational efficiency, high aircraft utilization, and a young, fuel-efficient fleet are also key factors that aid in reducing costs and enhancing profitability.

Frontier Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Frontier Group Holdings shows moderate revenue growth but faces challenges with profitability and cash flow generation. High leverage and a low equity ratio pose financial risks, although returns on equity are moderately positive. Improvements in cost efficiency and cash management are essential for financial stability.

Income Statement

Frontier Group Holdings exhibits moderate financial performance with a gradual revenue growth of 1.24% TTM and 5.18% in the previous annual period. However, the gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 51.31% to 22.34% over the last year, indicating pressure on cost management. Despite improvements, net profit margins remain thin at 1.78% TTM, reflecting the challenges in achieving consistent profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows significant leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 8.40 TTM, indicating high financial risk. The equity ratio is low at 8.80% TTM, suggesting limited shareholder equity buffer. However, the company has maintained a positive ROE of 11.93% TTM, showing some efficiency in generating returns from shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative free cash flow growth, with a decline of 48.10% TTM, indicating challenges in generating cash organically. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting difficulties in converting income to cash. This raises concerns about the company's cash management and operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.82B	3.77B	3.59B	3.33B	2.06B	1.25B
Gross Profit	854.00M	1.94B	302.00M	282.00M	-202.00M	-390.00M
EBITDA	56.00M	122.00M	83.00M	10.00M	-99.00M	-327.00M
Net Income	68.00M	85.00M	-11.00M	-37.00M	-102.00M	-225.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.48B	6.15B	4.99B	4.50B	4.24B	3.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	686.00M	740.00M	609.00M	761.00M	918.00M	378.00M
Total Debt	4.79B	4.47B	3.46B	2.93B	2.85B	2.61B
Total Liabilities	5.91B	5.55B	4.49B	3.99B	3.71B	3.24B
Stockholders Equity	570.00M	604.00M	507.00M	509.00M	530.00M	310.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-234.00M	-158.00M	-348.00M	-230.00M	153.00M	-573.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-146.00M	-82.00M	-261.00M	-78.00M	216.00M	-557.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-97.00M	-75.00M	-90.00M	-154.00M	-67.00M	11.00M
Financing Cash Flow	307.00M	288.00M	199.00M	75.00M	391.00M	156.00M

Frontier Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 4.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULCC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.92, above the 50-day MA of 3.91, and below the 200-day MA of 5.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ULCC.

Frontier Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNCY	77 Outperform	$664.03M	12.67	9.46%	―	2.24%	-20.24%
VLRS	68 Neutral	$528.19M	12.09	14.19%	―	-7.43%	-62.49%
Sector *	66 Neutral	€9.39B	16.61	3.99%	4.81%	2.85%	-16.21%
ULCC	53 Neutral	$938.39M	14.00	12.71%	―	5.99%	―
ALGT	52 Neutral	$943.59M	―	-17.12%	1.16%	1.54%	-466.46%
JBLU	47 Neutral	$1.56B	―	-11.30%	―	-3.02%	66.90%
AZULQ	45 Neutral	$104.23M	―		―	-5.34%	-125.18%

Frontier Group Holdings Corporate Events

Frontier Group Holdings Reaffirms Q2 2025 Loss Guidance

Frontier Group Holdings reaffirmed its adjusted loss per share guidance for Q2 2025, initially disclosed on May 1, 2025, ahead of an investor conference on May 22, 2025. The company noted stable travel demand following earlier disruptions and expects positive revenue per available seat mile, despite lower capacity compared to the previous year. CEO Barry Biffle highlighted stabilized booking trends for May and early summer, with load factors slightly higher and RASM up in low single-digits. The company aims for profitability in the second half of 2025, leveraging commercial investments and cost management, with unchanged capacity plans for the rest of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.

Frontier Group Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 15, 2025, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key decisions were made. The stockholders elected four directors to the board, approved amendments to the company’s certificate of incorporation, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor, and approved executive compensation for the fiscal year 2024. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to adapt its governance and operational strategies, particularly in light of its loss of controlled company status in 2024.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.

Frontier Group’s CAO Rescinds Resignation, Salary Increased

On March 7, 2025, Josh Wetzel, Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of Frontier Group Holdings, initially submitted his resignation, which was later rescinded on May 12, 2025. Following his decision to stay, Mr. Wetzel’s annual base salary was increased to $330,000, while other compensation arrangements remained unchanged, ensuring his continued role and contributions to the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULCC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontier Group Holdings stock, see the ULCC Stock Forecast page.