Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.16B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.78
• Revenue Growth: 1.77%
• EPS Growth: -1964.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,906
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 228,950,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,711,139
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,417,810
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -130.32
• 1Y Price Target: $5.57
• Price Target Upside: 15.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.75
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.71B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲(23.97% Upside)

Frontier Group Holdings faces significant financial challenges, which heavily impact its overall score. Despite strong technical indicators suggesting bullish momentum, the company's negative financial performance and valuation concerns weigh down the score. The earnings call provided some positive strategic insights, but the net loss and increased expenses remain concerns.

Positive Factors

Route Expansion

Expanding routes enhances market presence and potential revenue streams, positioning Frontier for growth in both domestic and international markets.

Loyalty Program Enhancement

Enhancements to the loyalty program can drive customer retention and increase ancillary revenue, strengthening long-term financial performance.

Operational Reliability

Improved operational reliability can enhance customer satisfaction and brand reputation, leading to sustained competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow challenges the company's ability to fund operations and investments, which could hinder long-term growth and stability.

Declining Revenue Growth

Declining revenue growth indicates potential market share loss and challenges in maintaining competitive pricing, affecting future profitability.

Frontier Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., a low-fare airline company, provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas. It offers its services through direct distribution channels, including its website, mobile app, and call center. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising, 16 A320ceos, 73 A320neos, and 21 A321ceos. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Frontier Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for its flights, which are offered at low base fares. The company's ultra-low-cost business model enables it to earn additional income through ancillary revenue streams, such as fees for checked baggage, seat selection, and in-flight services. Frontier also engages in partnerships with other airlines and travel-related services to enhance its offerings and customer experience. Key factors contributing to its earnings include operational efficiency, strategic route planning, and maintaining a cost-effective fleet, which allows the company to offer competitive pricing while maximizing profitability.

Frontier Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Frontier Group Holdings is experiencing significant financial challenges. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability, the balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 11.59, and cash flow statements indicate liquidity issues with negative operating cash flow and a 59.52% decrease in free cash flow.

Income Statement

Frontier Group Holdings has faced declining revenue growth with a negative rate of -1.30% in the TTM period. The company also reported negative net profit and EBIT margins, indicating challenges in achieving profitability. The gross profit margin has significantly decreased from previous years, reflecting cost pressures or pricing challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a high debt-to-equity ratio of 11.59, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is negative, and free cash flow has decreased by 59.52% in the TTM period, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting difficulties in converting income into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.73B	3.77B	3.59B	3.33B	2.06B	1.25B
Gross Profit	941.00M	1.94B	302.00M	282.00M	-202.00M	-390.00M
EBITDA	-42.00M	122.00M	83.00M	10.00M	-77.00M	-327.00M
Net Income	-136.00M	85.00M	-11.00M	-37.00M	-102.00M	-225.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.70B	6.15B	4.99B	4.50B	4.24B	3.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	566.00M	740.00M	609.00M	761.00M	918.00M	378.00M
Total Debt	5.03B	4.47B	3.46B	2.93B	2.85B	2.61B
Total Liabilities	6.27B	5.55B	4.49B	3.99B	3.71B	3.24B
Stockholders Equity	434.00M	604.00M	507.00M	509.00M	530.00M	310.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-85.00M	-158.00M	-348.00M	-230.00M	153.00M	-573.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-128.00M	-82.00M	-261.00M	-78.00M	216.00M	-557.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-187.00M	-75.00M	-90.00M	-154.00M	-67.00M	11.00M
Financing Cash Flow	524.00M	288.00M	199.00M	75.00M	391.00M	156.00M

Frontier Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 4.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULCC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.09, above the 50-day MA of 4.42, and above the 200-day MA of 4.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ULCC.

Frontier Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SKYW	74 Outperform	$4.19B	9.77	17.42%	―	19.27%	78.26%
SNCY	74 Outperform	$788.08M	13.80	9.99%	―	4.27%	28.47%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALGT	58 Neutral	$1.56B	-5.11	-25.37%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
VLRS	54 Neutral	$1.10B	-16.71	-21.74%	―	-6.55%	-133.03%
JBLU	51 Neutral	$1.80B	-3.61	-19.09%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
ULCC	50 Neutral	$1.16B	-8.05	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%

Frontier Group Holdings Corporate Events

Frontier Airlines’ Q3 2025 Financial Results Overview

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., the parent company of Frontier Airlines, operates in the aviation sector, focusing on providing low-cost air travel with a fleet of fuel-efficient aircraft. The company recently released its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting both challenges and strategic advancements.

Frontier Airlines Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., the parent company of Frontier Airlines, operates in the airline industry, focusing on providing low-cost air travel with a commitment to fuel efficiency and environmental sustainability.

Frontier Group Holdings’ Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiments and Future Outlook

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. recently held its earnings call, presenting a mixed sentiment characterized by both achievements and challenges. The company reported growth in loyalty and cardholder metrics, as well as new route expansions and operational efficiencies. However, these positive aspects were counterbalanced by a decline in total revenue, pre-tax and net losses, and challenges stemming from adverse weather conditions, air traffic control delays, and weak consumer sentiment.