Sun Country Airlines Holdings (SNCY)
NASDAQ:SNCY
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Sun Country Airlines Holdings
(NASDAQ:SNCY)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▲(1.69% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/16/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile cash flow trends (including a sharp 2025 step-down) and bearish technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include a reasonable P/E and positive M&A-related corporate events, including key antitrust clearance.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sun Country shows sustained top-line momentum with a very large revenue jump in 2025. Durable revenue growth supports route expansion, scale economies in fleet and network planning, and higher ancillary take rates, strengthening long-term competitive positioning.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
A sharp 2025 step-down and multi-year free cash flow volatility reduce financial flexibility to fund capex, routes, or absorb shocks. Persistent cash generation weakness raises execution risk, constrains reinvestment and makes sustaining growth or weathering cycles harder.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Sun Country shows sustained top-line momentum with a very large revenue jump in 2025. Durable revenue growth supports route expansion, scale economies in fleet and network planning, and higher ancillary take rates, strengthening long-term competitive positioning.
Read all positive factors
Sun Country Airlines Holdings (SNCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$919.94M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)979.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth4.27%
EPS Growth28.47%
CountryUS
Employees3,124
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding53,453,880
10 Day Avg. Volume1,205,969
30 Day Avg. Volume979,712
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-14.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.68
P/FCF Ratio9.10
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.83Price Target Upside15.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.23B
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc., an air carrier company, provides scheduled passenger, air cargo, charter air transportation, and related services in the United States, Latin America, and internationally. As of December 31, 2021, the company o...
How the Company Makes Money
Sun Country Airlines Holdings makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related services across multiple lines of business. (1) Scheduled passenger revenue: The core model is selling tickets for scheduled flights, with pricing and lo...
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in the cargo and charter segments, maintaining profitability, and operational reliability. However, challenges were noted in the scheduled service segment decline and increased operating costs, particularly in maintenance and labor.Positive Updates
Cargo Revenue Growth
Third quarter cargo revenue increased by 60% year-on-year for September, with expectations to surpass 75% by December. All 20 cargo aircraft are now operational, marking the completion of the cargo expansion.
Negative Updates
Scheduled Service Decline
Scheduled service ASMs were down 10.2% in Q3 due to resource allocation to the cargo segment, with expected declines between 8% and 9% in Q4 2025.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Cargo Revenue Growth
Third quarter cargo revenue increased by 60% year-on-year for September, with expectations to surpass 75% by December. All 20 cargo aircraft are now operational, marking the completion of the cargo expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the Sun Country Airlines Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance showcasing a strong financial outlook. The airline reported a 13th consecutive profitable quarter with a GAAP EPS of $0.03 and an adjusted EPS of $0.07. The third quarter total revenue increased by 2.4% to $255.5 million, supported by a 3.8% rise in total block hours. Cargo operations, a significant focus for 2025, saw a remarkable 60% year-on-year revenue growth in September, with expectations to exceed 75% by December. Meanwhile, charter revenue grew by 15.6%, and charter block hours increased by 11.1%. The airline's scheduled service TRASM rose by 1.6% in Q3 and over 7% in September, with a projected 6% increase for Q4. Sun Country anticipates a further advance in TRASM and aims to achieve a $300 million run rate EBITDA by mid-2027. The company also guided for Q4 total revenue between $270 million and $280 million, with an 8% to 11% increase in block hours and an operating margin of 5% to 8%. Despite cost pressures, including a 15% rise in salaries and a 13.5% increase in maintenance expenses, Sun Country remains poised for growth, planning to expand its passenger fleet to 50 aircraft by mid-2027.Sun Country Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.13B | 1.08B | 1.05B | 894.44M | 623.01M |
| Gross Profit | 754.17M | 748.96M | 269.17M | 177.74M | 133.17M |
| EBITDA | 201.34M | 210.58M | 226.24M | 122.64M | 200.21M |
| Net Income | 52.81M | 52.90M | 72.18M | 17.68M | 81.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.68B | 1.63B | 1.62B | 1.52B | 1.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 234.31M | 187.27M | 187.41M | 271.02M | 315.62M |
| Total Debt | 591.80M | 619.03M | 697.78M | 629.66M | 545.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.11B | 1.03B | 889.83M |
| Stockholders Equity | 625.20M | 570.37M | 514.40M | 492.71M | 490.59M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 84.00M | 117.53M | -44.04M | -60.48M | 35.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 157.10M | 164.86M | 174.12M | 127.44M | 152.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.01M | 8.40M | -171.23M | -349.33M | -117.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -52.50M | -136.47M | -42.14M | 7.03M | 212.40M |
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
17.21
Price Trends
18.29
Negative
16.01
Positive
14.02
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.56
Negative
48.80
Neutral
87.37
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SNCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.09, below the 50-day MA of 18.29, and above the 200-day MA of 14.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.37 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SNCY.
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Risk Analysis
Sun Country Airlines Holdings disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sun Country Airlines Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $19.75B | 50.61 | 5.33% | 1.73% | 0.65% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $919.94M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
48 Neutral | $1.57B | -34.43 | -4.22% | ― | 3.29% | -983.31% | |
46 Neutral | $1.76B | ― | -26.05% | ― | -2.49% | 47.88% | |
45 Neutral | $885.78M | -9.81 | -20.74% | ― | -6.55% | -133.03% | |
45 Neutral | $849.56M | -7.87 | -27.39% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SNCY
Sun Country Airlines Holdings
17.21
3.84
28.72%
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Sun Country Airlines Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sun Country-Allegiant Merger Gains Key Antitrust Clearance
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On January 11, 2026, Sun Country Airlines agreed to be acquired by Allegiant Travel Company through a two-step merger structure that will ultimately make Sun Country a wholly owned subsidiary of Allegiant. On March 16, 2026, the companies announce...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Sun Country to be acquired by Allegiant Travel
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 11, 2026, Sun Country Airlines Holdings entered into a definitive cash-and-stock merger agreement to be acquired by Allegiant Travel Company, in a transaction valuing Sun Country at about $1.5 billion, including net debt, and implying $...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Sun Country Airlines Elevates Commercial and Operations Leadership
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
Effective January 6, 2026, Sun Country Airlines appointed Colton Snow, previously Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer, as Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, formalizing the leadership of a long-tenured executive who ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.