Sun Country Airlines Holdings (SNCY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $938.65M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: 4.27%
• EPS Growth: 28.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,124
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 53,453,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,246,650
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,218,537
• PEG Ratio: -0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.42
• 1Y Price Target: $19.43
• Price Target Upside: 10.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.21B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.50 ▼(-0.34% Downside)

The score is primarily supported by strong financial operating performance (high revenue growth and healthy margins) and a clear uptrend in the stock’s technical setup. It is held back by weakening free cash flow, overbought RSI levels, and earnings-call cost inflation alongside scheduled service capacity declines.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue and margins

Substantial TTM revenue expansion with a high gross margin indicates durable demand recovery and effective pricing/ancillary capture. Healthy margins provide cushion versus cost volatility, supporting sustainable operating profitability and reinvestment capacity over the next several quarters.

Cargo and charter diversification

Rapid cargo and charter growth reflects a strategic revenue diversification away from purely scheduled passenger exposure. Fully operational cargo fleet and double-digit charter gains create recurring, higher-yield revenue streams that reduce cyclicality and support long-term EBITDA expansion.

Improved leverage and strong ROE

Lower leverage and a solid return on equity signal improved financial stability and disciplined capital use. This balance-sheet positioning enhances flexibility for fleet investment, working capital needs, and strategic initiatives while lowering refinancing risk in upcoming funding cycles.

Negative Factors

Sharp free cash flow decline

A halving of FCF growth meaningfully reduces internal funding for capex, fleet expansion, and debt repayment. Even with strong operating cash conversion, the marked FCF contraction constrains discretionary investments and increases reliance on external financing over the medium term.

Rising unit and labor costs

Sustained increases in unit costs, maintenance and labor compress operating margins and limit the payoff from revenue gains. Given contractual wage pressures and unexpected maintenance, cost inflation represents a persistent headwind to margin sustainability absent structural productivity or fare improvements.

Scheduled service capacity reduction

Significant and ongoing cuts to scheduled capacity signal reduced network presence and potential pressure on market share and customer loyalty. Persistent ASM reductions can dampen future revenue diversification and limit scale economies in scheduled operations over the next several quarters.

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc., an air carrier company, provides scheduled passenger, air cargo, charter air transportation, and related services in the United States, Latin America, and internationally. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 48 aircraft, including 36 passenger and 12 cargo aircraft. Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Sun Country Airlines generates revenue primarily through the sale of airline tickets for its scheduled flights, which is its main revenue stream. The airline employs a low-cost model, leveraging efficiencies to keep operational costs down while offering competitive fares to attract price-sensitive travelers. Additional revenue is earned through ancillary services, such as baggage fees, seat selection, and in-flight services. The company also benefits from charter services, which cater to sports teams, corporate groups, and other organizations needing tailored travel solutions. Partnerships with travel agencies and online travel platforms further enhance its distribution capabilities, contributing to its earnings. Seasonal demand and strategic marketing efforts are crucial in maximizing revenue during peak travel periods, while the diversification of services, including bundled vacation packages, provides customers with added value and encourages higher spending.

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sun Country Airlines shows strong revenue growth and profitability with improving leverage ratios. However, the decline in free cash flow growth poses a potential risk to future financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Sun Country Airlines has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 55.2% increase in TTM, indicating a robust recovery and expansion. The gross profit margin of 46.63% and net profit margin of 5.35% reflect solid profitability, although there is room for improvement in net margins. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 8.94% and 17.78% respectively, showcasing efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.42 in TTM, indicating a reduction in leverage compared to previous years, which enhances financial stability. Return on equity is strong at 13.64%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio of 38.04% suggests moderate reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust, with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 401.58%, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow has declined significantly by 50.43% in TTM, which could impact future investments and debt servicing. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 93.60% is positive, but the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.11B	1.08B	1.05B	894.44M	623.01M	401.49M
Gross Profit	628.95M	748.96M	269.17M	177.74M	133.17M	18.11M
EBITDA	231.55M	210.58M	226.24M	122.64M	200.21M	65.48M
Net Income	58.10M	52.90M	72.18M	17.68M	81.25M	-3.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.60B	1.63B	1.62B	1.52B	1.38B	1.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	176.22M	187.27M	187.41M	271.02M	315.62M	67.65M
Total Debt	575.76M	619.03M	697.78M	629.66M	545.62M	536.83M
Total Liabilities	993.72M	1.06B	1.11B	1.03B	889.83M	769.45M
Stockholders Equity	610.21M	570.37M	514.40M	492.71M	490.59M	283.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	134.90M	117.53M	-44.04M	-60.48M	35.70M	-95.92M
Operating Cash Flow	168.76M	164.86M	174.12M	127.44M	152.00M	374.00K
Investing Cash Flow	14.62M	8.40M	-171.23M	-349.33M	-117.00M	-96.03M
Financing Cash Flow	-115.99M	-136.47M	-42.14M	7.03M	212.40M	101.54M

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 17.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SNCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.32, above the 50-day MA of 14.04, and above the 200-day MA of 12.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.62 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SNCY.

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNCY	69 Neutral	$938.65M	16.87	9.99%	―	4.27%	28.47%
LUV	66 Neutral	$22.00B	64.84	4.22%	1.73%	0.65%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALGT	54 Neutral	$1.58B	―	-25.37%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
VLRS	54 Neutral	$1.02B	-16.11	-21.74%	―	-6.55%	-133.03%
JBLU	51 Neutral	$1.76B	-3.80	-19.09%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
ULCC	47 Neutral	$1.14B	-8.45	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Corporate Events

Sun Country to be acquired by Allegiant Travel

On January 11, 2026, Sun Country Airlines Holdings entered into a definitive cash-and-stock merger agreement to be acquired by Allegiant Travel Company, in a transaction valuing Sun Country at about $1.5 billion, including net debt, and implying $18.89 per share—a roughly 19% premium to its January 9 closing price—under which Sun Country shareholders will receive $4.10 in cash and 0.1557 Allegiant shares for each Sun Country share and will hold approximately 33% of the combined company. The deal, structured as a two-step merger that will ultimately make Sun Country a wholly owned Allegiant subsidiary and lead to the delisting of Sun Country’s Nasdaq-traded stock, includes conversion of Sun Country equity awards into Allegiant instruments, board expansion to add three Sun Country-designated directors including CEO Jude Bricker, and customary regulatory, shareholder and antitrust closing conditions, with an outside date of January 11, 2027 and a package of reverse and standard break fees and expense reimbursements. Strategically, Allegiant and Sun Country aim to create a leading U.S. leisure airline with complementary route networks, an enlarged fleet of 195 aircraft and more than 650 routes serving 22 million annual passengers, enhanced international reach across Mexico, Central America, Canada and the Caribbean, strengthened charter and cargo operations to smooth seasonality, and a combined loyalty base exceeding 23 million members, while management highlights expected $140 million in annual synergies by year three, EPS accretion in the first year post-closing and greater career opportunities and operational stability for employees under existing labor agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.

Sun Country Airlines Elevates Commercial and Operations Leadership

Effective January 6, 2026, Sun Country Airlines appointed Colton Snow, previously Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer, as Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, formalizing the leadership of a long-tenured executive who has overseen key functions including ancillary revenue, marketing, loyalty, communications, digital experience, customer service, network planning, revenue management, and charters. On the same date, the board named Stephen Coley, formerly Senior Vice President and Head of Operations, as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, elevating an operations leader with more than 22 years of industry experience across technical operations, maintenance, safety, and security; together, these internal promotions consolidate commercial and operational leadership under experienced executives without related-party concerns, signaling a continued focus on disciplined growth and operational reliability for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.

Sun Country Airlines Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. has announced the appointment of Christopher Mangione as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective November 16, 2025. Previously, Mr. Mangione served as Senior Director of External Reporting and Technical Accounting at the company. This appointment follows Mr. D. Torque Zubeck’s interim role in the position. The employment agreement outlines Mr. Mangione’s compensation, including an annual base salary of $200,000, eligibility for a 60% target annual bonus, and equity-based compensation starting in 2026. The agreement also details severance benefits in case of termination without cause or resignation for good reason, especially following a change in control.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.

Sun Country Airlines CAO Resignation Announced

Sun Country Airlines Holdings announced the resignation of its Chief Accounting Officer, John Gyurci, effective November 14, 2025. The departure was amicable, and the company’s CFO, D. Torque Zubeck, will temporarily assume the role. Additionally, the company finalized a separation agreement with former Senior Vice President & Chief Revenue Officer, Grant Whitney, who left the company on October 20, 2025. The agreement includes a 12-month salary continuation, medical and dental coverage, and a pro-rata bonus for 2025, contingent upon compliance with existing covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.

Sun Country Airlines Announces Executive Departure

On October 24, 2025, Sun Country Airlines Holdings announced the departure of Grant Whitney, their Senior Vice President & Chief Revenue Officer, effective October 20, 2025. Whitney’s exit was amicable, and his responsibilities will be redistributed among the senior leadership team. He will receive separation benefits, including a continuation of his salary for 12 months and medical and dental coverage through COBRA, contingent upon compliance with certain conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.