Sun Country Airlines Holdings (SNCY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 4.27%
• EPS Growth: 28.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,124
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 53,453,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 716,333
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,329,333
• PEG Ratio: -14.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.16
• 1Y Price Target: $19.50
• Price Target Upside: -4.41% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.21B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.50 ▲(10.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile 2025 cash flow despite solid revenue growth and improving leverage. Technicals show a strong uptrend but are highly overextended, increasing pullback risk. Guidance and corporate events are supportive (profitability streak, cargo/charter momentum, and the announced acquisition), but cost pressures and scheduled-service declines limit upside.

Positive Factors

Cargo & charter expansion

Sun Country has materially diversified revenue by scaling cargo and charter operations: cargo +60% YoY in September, all 20 cargo aircraft operational, and charter revenue +15.6%. This structural shift reduces leisure-seasonality, broadens revenue streams, and supports steadier revenue and utilization over the medium term.

Consistent profitability track record

A sustained streak of profitable quarters demonstrates durable operating discipline and revenue resilience across cycles. Consistent profitability supports internal capital allocation, credibility with creditors, and the ability to fund targeted growth (fleet and cargo) even amid cost pressures over the next several quarters.

Merger creates scale and synergies

The definitive Allegiant acquisition is a structural change that should increase scale, network connectivity, and revenue diversification. Targeted $140M in annual synergies and combined route/loyalty scale materially improve competitive position and create durable cost and network advantages post-close.

Negative Factors

Weak & volatile cash flow

Cash generation plunged in 2025 after prior swings, producing sharp year-to-year volatility. Weak and unpredictable operating and free cash flow constrains reinvestment in fleet and cargo growth, limits buffer for cost shocks, and raises refinancing and execution risk in a cyclical airline environment over the next 2–6 months.

Meaningful leverage remains

Although leverage has improved, debt still equals roughly one times equity, leaving limited financial flexibility. In a capital-intensive, cyclical industry this level of net obligations can restrict funding optionality for growth, increase sensitivity to cash-flow swings, and raise vulnerability to cyclical downturns.

Rising costs and scheduled-service contraction

Sun Country reallocated capacity to cargo, cutting scheduled ASMs and shrinking its scheduled network. At the same time maintenance and labor costs rose materially. This combination pressures unit costs and risks margin erosion in scheduled services, complicating durable margin recovery despite cargo gains.

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc., an air carrier company, provides scheduled passenger, air cargo, charter air transportation, and related services in the United States, Latin America, and internationally. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 48 aircraft, including 36 passenger and 12 cargo aircraft. Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Sun Country Airlines generates revenue primarily through the sale of airline tickets for its scheduled flights, which is its main revenue stream. The airline employs a low-cost model, leveraging efficiencies to keep operational costs down while offering competitive fares to attract price-sensitive travelers. Additional revenue is earned through ancillary services, such as baggage fees, seat selection, and in-flight services. The company also benefits from charter services, which cater to sports teams, corporate groups, and other organizations needing tailored travel solutions. Partnerships with travel agencies and online travel platforms further enhance its distribution capabilities, contributing to its earnings. Seasonal demand and strategic marketing efforts are crucial in maximizing revenue during peak travel periods, while the diversification of services, including bundled vacation packages, provides customers with added value and encourages higher spending.

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are solid (strong multi-year revenue growth, modest but positive profitability), and leverage has improved (debt-to-equity ~0.95). The primary drag is cash flow: 2025 operating and free cash flow fell sharply versus 2024, with notable multi-year volatility, reducing confidence in earnings quality and reinvestment flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly from 2020–2025, including a very large jump in 2025 versus 2024 (per the provided growth rate). Profitability, however, has become less consistent: net margin and operating margins stepped down from 2021 highs, and 2025 profitability remained positive but modest (net margin ~4.7%, EBITDA margin ~17.9%). Overall, the business shows solid top-line momentum, but margin durability looks pressured versus earlier years.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved over time, with debt-to-equity falling to ~0.95 in 2025 from higher levels earlier in the period, supported by a larger equity base. That said, debt remains meaningful at roughly similar magnitude to equity, leaving less flexibility in a cyclical airline environment. Returns on equity are positive but have trended down from peak levels (about 8.4% in 2025 versus stronger results in 2021–2023).

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened sharply in 2025: operating cash flow and free cash flow are far below prior years, and free cash flow growth is deeply negative versus 2024. While recent history (2024) showed strong positive free cash flow, the multi-year profile includes volatility with negative free cash flow in 2022–2023. Free cash flow relative to net income in 2025 is positive, but the absolute cash flow level and year-to-year swing raise execution and reinvestment risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.13B	1.08B	1.05B	894.44M	623.01M
Gross Profit	754.17M	748.96M	269.17M	177.74M	133.17M
EBITDA	201.34M	210.58M	226.24M	122.64M	200.21M
Net Income	52.81M	52.90M	72.18M	17.68M	81.25M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.68B	1.63B	1.62B	1.52B	1.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	234.31M	187.27M	187.41M	271.02M	315.62M
Total Debt	591.80M	619.03M	697.78M	629.66M	545.62M
Total Liabilities	1.06B	1.06B	1.11B	1.03B	889.83M
Stockholders Equity	625.20M	570.37M	514.40M	492.71M	490.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	84.00M	117.53M	-44.04M	-60.48M	35.70M
Operating Cash Flow	157.10M	164.86M	174.12M	127.44M	152.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.01M	8.40M	-171.23M	-349.33M	-117.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-52.50M	-136.47M	-42.14M	7.03M	212.40M

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 20.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SNCY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.17, above the 50-day MA of 17.64, and above the 200-day MA of 13.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SNCY.

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
LUV	61 Neutral	$24.88B	63.93	4.82%	1.73%	0.65%	―
SNCY	57 Neutral	$1.06B	20.73	8.83%	―	4.27%	28.47%
ALGT	56 Neutral	$1.88B	-39.96	-4.29%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
ULCC	52 Neutral	$1.07B	-7.74	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%
JBLU	50 Neutral	$2.12B	-3.34	-25.29%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
VLRS	49 Neutral	$1.10B	-16.15	-33.25%	―	-6.55%	-133.03%

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Corporate Events

Sun Country to be acquired by Allegiant Travel

On January 11, 2026, Sun Country Airlines Holdings entered into a definitive cash-and-stock merger agreement to be acquired by Allegiant Travel Company, in a transaction valuing Sun Country at about $1.5 billion, including net debt, and implying $18.89 per share—a roughly 19% premium to its January 9 closing price—under which Sun Country shareholders will receive $4.10 in cash and 0.1557 Allegiant shares for each Sun Country share and will hold approximately 33% of the combined company. The deal, structured as a two-step merger that will ultimately make Sun Country a wholly owned Allegiant subsidiary and lead to the delisting of Sun Country’s Nasdaq-traded stock, includes conversion of Sun Country equity awards into Allegiant instruments, board expansion to add three Sun Country-designated directors including CEO Jude Bricker, and customary regulatory, shareholder and antitrust closing conditions, with an outside date of January 11, 2027 and a package of reverse and standard break fees and expense reimbursements. Strategically, Allegiant and Sun Country aim to create a leading U.S. leisure airline with complementary route networks, an enlarged fleet of 195 aircraft and more than 650 routes serving 22 million annual passengers, enhanced international reach across Mexico, Central America, Canada and the Caribbean, strengthened charter and cargo operations to smooth seasonality, and a combined loyalty base exceeding 23 million members, while management highlights expected $140 million in annual synergies by year three, EPS accretion in the first year post-closing and greater career opportunities and operational stability for employees under existing labor agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.

Sun Country Airlines Elevates Commercial and Operations Leadership

Effective January 6, 2026, Sun Country Airlines appointed Colton Snow, previously Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer, as Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, formalizing the leadership of a long-tenured executive who has overseen key functions including ancillary revenue, marketing, loyalty, communications, digital experience, customer service, network planning, revenue management, and charters. On the same date, the board named Stephen Coley, formerly Senior Vice President and Head of Operations, as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, elevating an operations leader with more than 22 years of industry experience across technical operations, maintenance, safety, and security; together, these internal promotions consolidate commercial and operational leadership under experienced executives without related-party concerns, signaling a continued focus on disciplined growth and operational reliability for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.

Sun Country Airlines Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. has announced the appointment of Christopher Mangione as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective November 16, 2025. Previously, Mr. Mangione served as Senior Director of External Reporting and Technical Accounting at the company. This appointment follows Mr. D. Torque Zubeck’s interim role in the position. The employment agreement outlines Mr. Mangione’s compensation, including an annual base salary of $200,000, eligibility for a 60% target annual bonus, and equity-based compensation starting in 2026. The agreement also details severance benefits in case of termination without cause or resignation for good reason, especially following a change in control.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.