Sun Country Airlines Holdings (SNCY)
NASDAQ:SNCY
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Sun Country Airlines Holdings
(NASDAQ:SNCY)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▲(4.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/16/26
The score is primarily constrained by weakened and volatile 2025 cash flow and reduced margin durability despite strong revenue growth and improving leverage. Technicals are moderately supportive but not decisively bullish, valuation looks reasonable on P/E, and recent regulatory progress on the Allegiant acquisition provides an added positive catalyst.
Positive Factors
Multi-year Revenue Growth
Sustained multi-year top-line expansion supports network scale, route economics and stronger bargaining with suppliers. Persistent revenue growth underpins capacity utilization and ancillary/cargo upside, providing a durable base for margin recovery and strategic investments over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weakened Cash Generation
A sharp drop in operating and free cash flow reduces capacity to fund maintenance, fleet reinvestment, and working capital without external financing. Multi-year FCF volatility raises execution risk, limits strategic flexibility and increases reliance on capital markets during industry downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year Revenue Growth
Sustained multi-year top-line expansion supports network scale, route economics and stronger bargaining with suppliers. Persistent revenue growth underpins capacity utilization and ancillary/cargo upside, providing a durable base for margin recovery and strategic investments over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Sun Country Airlines Holdings (SNCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$962.99M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)827.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth4.27%
EPS Growth28.47%
CountryUS
Employees3,124
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding54,191,635
10 Day Avg. Volume570,805
30 Day Avg. Volume827,914
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-14.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.68
P/FCF Ratio9.10
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.67Price Target Upside16.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.24B
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc., an air carrier company, provides scheduled passenger, air cargo, charter air transportation, and related services in the United States, Latin America, and internationally. As of December 31, 2021, the company o...
How the Company Makes Money
Sun Country Airlines Holdings makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related services across multiple lines of business. (1) Scheduled passenger revenue: The core model is selling tickets for scheduled flights, with pricing and lo...
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in the cargo and charter segments, maintaining profitability, and operational reliability. However, challenges were noted in the scheduled service segment decline and increased operating costs, particularly in maintenance and labor.Positive Updates
Cargo Revenue Growth
Third quarter cargo revenue increased by 60% year-on-year for September, with expectations to surpass 75% by December. All 20 cargo aircraft are now operational, marking the completion of the cargo expansion.
Negative Updates
Scheduled Service Decline
Scheduled service ASMs were down 10.2% in Q3 due to resource allocation to the cargo segment, with expected declines between 8% and 9% in Q4 2025.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Cargo Revenue Growth
Third quarter cargo revenue increased by 60% year-on-year for September, with expectations to surpass 75% by December. All 20 cargo aircraft are now operational, marking the completion of the cargo expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the Sun Country Airlines Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance showcasing a strong financial outlook. The airline reported a 13th consecutive profitable quarter with a GAAP EPS of $0.03 and an adjusted EPS of $0.07. The third quarter total revenue increased by 2.4% to $255.5 million, supported by a 3.8% rise in total block hours. Cargo operations, a significant focus for 2025, saw a remarkable 60% year-on-year revenue growth in September, with expectations to exceed 75% by December. Meanwhile, charter revenue grew by 15.6%, and charter block hours increased by 11.1%. The airline's scheduled service TRASM rose by 1.6% in Q3 and over 7% in September, with a projected 6% increase for Q4. Sun Country anticipates a further advance in TRASM and aims to achieve a $300 million run rate EBITDA by mid-2027. The company also guided for Q4 total revenue between $270 million and $280 million, with an 8% to 11% increase in block hours and an operating margin of 5% to 8%. Despite cost pressures, including a 15% rise in salaries and a 13.5% increase in maintenance expenses, Sun Country remains poised for growth, planning to expand its passenger fleet to 50 aircraft by mid-2027.Sun Country Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.13B | 1.08B | 1.05B | 894.44M | 623.01M |
| Gross Profit | 754.17M | 748.96M | 269.17M | 177.74M | 133.17M |
| EBITDA | 201.34M | 210.58M | 226.24M | 122.64M | 200.21M |
| Net Income | 52.81M | 52.90M | 72.18M | 17.68M | 81.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.68B | 1.63B | 1.62B | 1.52B | 1.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 234.31M | 187.27M | 187.41M | 271.02M | 315.62M |
| Total Debt | 591.80M | 619.03M | 697.78M | 629.66M | 545.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.11B | 1.03B | 889.83M |
| Stockholders Equity | 625.20M | 570.37M | 514.40M | 492.71M | 490.59M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 84.00M | 117.53M | -44.04M | -60.48M | 35.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 157.10M | 164.86M | 174.12M | 127.44M | 152.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.01M | 8.40M | -171.23M | -349.33M | -117.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -52.50M | -136.47M | -42.14M | 7.03M | 212.40M |
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
17.77
Price Trends
18.15
Negative
16.67
Positive
14.41
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
55.82
Neutral
62.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SNCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.86, below the 50-day MA of 18.15, and above the 200-day MA of 14.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SNCY.
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Risk Analysis
Sun Country Airlines Holdings disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sun Country Airlines Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $962.99M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
54 Neutral | $1.63B | -34.43 | -4.22% | ― | 3.29% | -983.31% | |
54 Neutral | $20.48B | 50.61 | 5.33% | 1.73% | 0.65% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $2.11B | -2.79 | -26.05% | ― | -2.49% | 47.88% | |
45 Neutral | $923.00M | -9.81 | -20.74% | ― | -6.55% | -133.03% | |
45 Neutral | $918.93M | -7.87 | -27.39% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SNCY
Sun Country Airlines Holdings
17.77
8.89
100.11%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
88.24
44.08
99.82%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
5.66
1.99
54.22%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
41.70
17.45
71.96%
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
7.90
3.54
81.19%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
4.00
0.83
26.18%
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
DOT Clears Way for Allegiant Acquisition of Sun Country
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Allegiant Travel Company and Sun Country Airlines Holdings, both U.S. low‑cost and leisure‑focused carriers, have structured a deal in which Sun Country will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Allegiant through a two‑step merger...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sun Country-Allegiant Merger Gains Key Antitrust Clearance
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On January 11, 2026, Sun Country Airlines agreed to be acquired by Allegiant Travel Company through a two-step merger structure that will ultimately make Sun Country a wholly owned subsidiary of Allegiant. On March 16, 2026, the companies announce...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.