Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)
NASDAQ:ALGT
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Allegiant Travel Company
(NASDAQ:ALGT)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$79.00
▼(-4.96% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is held down primarily by inconsistent profitability and a leveraged balance sheet, alongside bearish technical momentum. Positive offsets include constructive guidance and operational/cost improvements from the earnings call, plus favorable corporate developments (raised Q1 outlook and antitrust progress on the Sun Country deal), but these are not yet enough to outweigh the financial and trend risks.
Positive Factors
Ancillary-driven revenue model
Allegiant’s business model generates a large share of revenue from ancillaries and packaged travel, which are higher-margin and recurring per-passenger streams. This diversification reduces reliance on base fares, supports cash generation and resilience across leisure cycles for 2–6+ months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and weak equity returns
Persistently high leverage against a cyclical leisure airline exposes the company to demand shocks and interest-cost variability. Negative ROE and material debt levels limit capital allocation flexibility, raise refinancing risk and increase sensitivity to revenue/margin swings over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Ancillary-driven revenue model
Allegiant’s business model generates a large share of revenue from ancillaries and packaged travel, which are higher-margin and recurring per-passenger streams. This diversification reduces reliance on base fares, supports cash generation and resilience across leisure cycles for 2–6+ months.
Read all positive factors
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.53B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)472.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth3.29%
EPS Growth-983.31%
CountryUS
Employees6,057
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.72
Shares Outstanding18,447,820
10 Day Avg. Volume385,505
30 Day Avg. Volume472,097
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio20.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$106.56Price Target Upside28.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)6.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.78B
Allegiant Travel Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. The company offers scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency, nonstop flights between under...
How the Company Makes Money
Allegiant primarily makes money through (1) base airfares and (2) ancillary revenue tied to its passenger airline operations. Base airfare revenue comes from selling seats on scheduled flights, generally focused on price-sensitive leisure traveler...
Allegiant Travel Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveyed a broadly positive picture: management highlighted record revenue, strong margins, meaningful unit-cost improvement, high operational reliability (99.9% controllable completion), effective MAX integration with ~20% fuel advantage, technology modernization, and a stronger balance sheet (debt paydown and liquidity). These operational and financial wins outweigh the near-term challenges—TRASM pressure in 2025, modestly higher fuel, weather-related shortfalls, delivery timing that compresses early-2026 capacity, and integration/financing considerations related to the Sun Country acquisition. Management’s conservative yet constructive 2026 guidance (Q1 margin ~13.5%, full-year EPS > $8) reflects the balance of improving fundamentals with macro and timing uncertainty. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Year-over-Year Growth
Total airline revenue exceeded $2.5 billion for full-year 2025, up ~4.3% versus 2024; Q4 airline revenue was a record ~$656 million, up ~7.6% year over year. Fixed-fee revenue contribution in Q4 was a record $25.5 million.
Negative Updates
Unit Revenue Pressure (TRASM Decline)
Fourth-quarter TRASM declined 2.6% to 12.67¢ while scheduled ASMs grew 10.5% year over year. Management acknowledged earlier RASM pressure during 2025 (analysts referenced a ~5 percentage-point RASM shortfall in 2025) and guided conservatively for 2026, not assuming January demand trends fully continue.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Year-over-Year Growth
Total airline revenue exceeded $2.5 billion for full-year 2025, up ~4.3% versus 2024; Q4 airline revenue was a record ~$656 million, up ~7.6% year over year. Fixed-fee revenue contribution in Q4 was a record $25.5 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Allegiant guided to Q1 adjusted operating margin of about 13.5% and roughly $3.00 EPS at the midpoint (assumes fuel ~$2.60/gal), with Q1 ASMs down ~5.7% and full‑year ASMs down ~0.5% (capacity “down slightly” year‑over‑year) on a standalone basis (guidance excludes Sun Country); full‑year adjusted EPS is expected to be more than $8.00 (≈+60% YoY), capital expenditures are forecast at ≈$750M (≈$580M aircraft CapEx and $85M deferred heavy maintenance), fleet count should be flat (ending 2025 with 123 aircraft: 16 737 MAX/107 A320 family) as the airline expects 11 MAX deliveries in 2026 (9 in service by year‑end) and nine A320 retirements, liquidity stood at $1.1B (incl. $250M undrawn revolver), year‑end total debt was just under $1.8B with net leverage ~2.3x, and management expects unit revenue gains to outpace CASM ex fuel increases (building on Q4 metrics: TRASM 12.67¢ on scheduled ASM growth 10.5%, Q4 airline revenue ~$656M (+7.6%), Q4 EBITDA ~$143M (~22% margin), Q4 nonfuel unit cost 8.01¢ (-3.4% YoY), and full‑year nonfuel unit costs down ~6.1%).Allegiant Travel Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.61B | 2.51B | 2.51B | 2.30B | 1.71B |
| Gross Profit | 400.67M | 1.57B | 664.37M | 340.47M | 231.54M |
| EBITDA | 326.94M | 60.86M | 490.24M | 305.57M | 446.13M |
| Net Income | -44.70M | -240.24M | 117.60M | 2.49M | 151.85M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.21B | 4.55B | 4.92B | 4.51B | 4.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 805.65M | 797.55M | 831.00M | 955.05M | 1.22B |
| Total Debt | 1.86B | 2.15B | 2.36B | 2.21B | 1.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.16B | 3.46B | 3.59B | 3.29B | 2.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.05B | 1.09B | 1.33B | 1.22B | 1.22B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 75.10M | 38.30M | -447.39M | -131.64M | 294.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 389.77M | 338.46M | 423.09M | 303.05M | 538.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -220.43M | 5.58M | -721.88M | -491.42M | -593.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -280.90M | -201.30M | 212.92M | 33.12M | 285.47M |
Allegiant Travel Company Technical Analysis
Positive
83.12
Price Trends
92.22
Negative
86.19
Negative
72.36
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.26
Negative
47.55
Neutral
41.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 83.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.36, below the 50-day MA of 92.22, and above the 200-day MA of 72.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALGT.
Allegiant Travel Company Risk Analysis
Allegiant Travel Company disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allegiant Travel Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Allegiant Travel Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $3.79B | 9.45 | 16.35% | ― | 19.27% | 78.26% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $901.23M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
48 Neutral | $1.53B | -34.43 | -4.22% | ― | 3.29% | -983.31% | |
46 Neutral | $1.68B | -2.79 | -26.05% | ― | -2.49% | 47.88% | |
45 Neutral | $843.84M | -9.81 | -20.74% | ― | -6.55% | -133.03% | |
45 Neutral | $861.04M | -7.87 | -27.39% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
83.12
34.41
70.64%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
4.55
0.38
9.11%
SKYW
SkyWest
93.70
9.18
10.86%
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
7.32
2.07
39.43%
SNCY
Sun Country Airlines Holdings
16.86
5.96
54.68%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
3.75
-0.05
-1.32%
Allegiant Travel Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Allegiant Lifts Q1 Outlook Ahead of Investor Conference
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Allegiant Travel Company, a U.S. leisure-focused low-cost airline, concentrates on connecting underserved cities to vacation destinations and supplements fare income with ancillary travel revenues aimed at value-oriented leisure passengers. Its mo...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allegiant Advances Sun Country Acquisition After Antitrust Clearance
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Allegiant Travel Company and Sun Country Airlines announced that U.S. antitrust regulators granted early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period for Allegiant’s proposed acquisition of Sun Country. This clearan...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Allegiant Travel targets 2026 margin and EPS growth
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
Reporting February 4, 2026, Allegiant posted fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP EPS of $1.73 and adjusted airline-only EPS of $2.72 on $656.2 million in revenue, while the full year showed a GAAP loss per share of $2.48 but adjusted airline-only EPS of $5.0...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Allegiant Travel to Acquire Sun Country in Merger
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 11, 2026, Allegiant Travel Company signed a definitive cash-and-stock merger agreement to acquire Sun Country Airlines at an implied value of $18.89 per share, a roughly 19% premium to Sun Country’s prior close, valuing the target...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.