Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.77B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 538.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.44
• Revenue Growth: 3.29%
• EPS Growth: -983.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,057
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.72
• Shares Outstanding: 18,452,293
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 398,852
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 538,743
• PEG Ratio: 0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.90
• 1Y Price Target: $108.36
• Price Target Upside: 17.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.38
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.70B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $110.00 ▲(19.45% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is held back primarily by inconsistent profitability and a still-levered balance sheet despite solid operating cash flow. Offsetting this, technicals show a clear uptrend and the latest earnings call/guidance points to improving margins and earnings power in 2026, but valuation is weakened by losses (negative P/E) and notable execution/capex risks remain.

Positive Factors

Consistent Operating Cash Flow

Consistent positive operating cash flow (2020–2025) and a $389.8M OCF in 2025 provide durable funding for working capital, debt reduction, and reinvestment. This cash generation buffers earnings volatility, supports liquidity needs during cyclicality, and underpins the company’s ability to finance fleet and tech initiatives without immediate reliance on equity.

Fleet Modernization Cost Advantage

Integration of 737 MAX aircraft yields an ongoing ~20% fuel-burn advantage and improved per-hour economics versus A320s. That structural fuel efficiency reduces CASM sensitivity to fuel cycles, supports sustainable unit-cost leadership for an ultra-low-cost carrier, and strengthens long-term margin resilience versus peers who operate older fleets.

Operational Productivity & Reliability

Rising capacity with flat fleet/staff and a ~17% cut in employees per departure shows structural productivity gains. Combined with industry-leading controllable completion and low mishandled-bag rates, this sustained operational execution improves unit costs, customer reliability, and scalability—key durable advantages for a leisure-focused carrier.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

Persistent leverage (~1.5x–2.5x historically; ~1.71x in 2025) and a recently negative ROE limit financial flexibility. In a cyclical industry this raises refinancing, covenant, and interest-cost risks, constrains ability to absorb demand shocks, and forces prioritization between capex, debt paydown and M&A for longer-term strategy execution.

Profitability Volatility

Despite revenue growth, earnings have swung materially (profitability high in some years, operating loss in 2024, net loss in 2025). This inconsistent earnings power undermines free-cash-flow reliability and makes long-term planning, dividend or buyback policies, and investor confidence more contingent on management execution and sustained unit-cost momentum.

Acquisition Integration & Financing Risk

The Sun Country acquisition is a structural change that increases scale but brings execution, regulatory and financing complexity. It requires approvals, integration of networks and systems, and carries refinancing/cash needs. Failure to realize $140M targeted synergies or missteps in integration could divert management focus and stress liquidity amid elevated capex needs.

Allegiant Travel Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. The company offers scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency, nonstop flights between under-served cities and leisure destinations. As of February 14, 2022, it operated a fleet of 110 Airbus A320 series aircraft. The company also provides air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation, including baggage fees, advance seat assignments, travel protection products, priority boarding, a customer convenience fee, food and beverage purchases on board, and other air-related services, as well as use of its call center for purchases. In addition, it offers third party travel products, such as hotel rooms and ground transportation, such as rental cars and hotel shuttle products; and air transportation services through fixed fee agreements and charter service on a year-round and ad-hoc basis. Further, the company operates a golf course. Allegiant Travel Company was founded in 1997 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

How the Company Makes Money

Allegiant Travel Company generates revenue primarily through ticket sales from its low-cost airline, Allegiant Air. The company employs a low-fare, no-frills model, where base fares are kept low, and additional fees are charged for services such as checked baggage, seat selection, and in-flight purchases. Besides ticket sales, Allegiant earns significant revenue from ancillary services, including hotel bookings, car rentals, and vacation packages, which are marketed to customers as part of their travel experience. The company also benefits from partnerships with various travel-related businesses, enhancing its service offerings and creating additional revenue streams. Additionally, Allegiant's focus on secondary airports allows it to maintain lower operating costs, further contributing to its profitability.

Allegiant Travel Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue recovery is strong and operating cash flow is consistently positive (2025 OCF ~$389.8M), but earnings quality is weak: profitability has been volatile with a 2025 net loss (-$44.7M) and free cash flow has been uneven. Balance-sheet risk remains elevated with leverage still high (debt-to-equity ~1.71x in 2025) and recently negative ROE.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown from $0.99B (2020) to $2.61B (2025), but profitability has been volatile. After solid profitability in 2021 and 2023 (net margin ~8.9% and ~4.7%), results weakened materially in 2024 (operating loss) and remained pressured in 2025 with a net loss (-$44.7M) despite positive operating profit. Margins show meaningful year-to-year swings, and the business has not yet re-established consistent earnings power post-2023.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and persistent, with debt-to-equity generally around ~1.5x–2.5x and at ~1.71x in 2025. Returns on equity have been inconsistent and recently negative (2025 ROE ~-4.2%), reflecting weaker profitability against a still-levered capital structure. While equity has held up versus the 2020 trough, the balance sheet remains a risk factor given cyclical industry conditions and the recent earnings losses.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been consistently positive from 2020–2025 and improved to $389.8M in 2025, providing a stabilizing offset to earnings volatility. Free cash flow, however, has been uneven (large outflow in 2023, modestly positive in 2024–2025), indicating variability in cash generation after investments. Cash conversion is mixed, with free cash flow not consistently tracking reported earnings across periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.61B	2.51B	2.51B	2.30B	1.71B
Gross Profit	400.67M	1.57B	664.37M	340.47M	231.54M
EBITDA	326.94M	60.86M	490.24M	305.57M	446.13M
Net Income	-44.70M	-240.24M	117.60M	2.49M	151.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.21B	4.55B	4.92B	4.51B	4.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	805.70M	797.55M	831.00M	955.05M	1.22B
Total Debt	1.86B	2.15B	2.36B	2.21B	1.88B
Total Liabilities	3.16B	3.46B	3.59B	3.29B	2.79B
Stockholders Equity	1.05B	1.09B	1.33B	1.22B	1.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	75.10M	38.30M	-447.39M	-131.64M	294.58M
Operating Cash Flow	389.77M	338.46M	423.09M	303.05M	538.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-220.43M	5.58M	-721.88M	-491.42M	-593.28M
Financing Cash Flow	-280.90M	-201.30M	212.92M	33.12M	285.47M

Allegiant Travel Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 92.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALGT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 92.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.62, below the 50-day MA of 95.33, and above the 200-day MA of 69.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ALGT.

Allegiant Travel Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SKYW	74 Outperform	$4.07B	11.02	16.62%	―	19.27%	78.26%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SNCY	57 Neutral	$1.00B	14.47	8.83%	―	4.27%	28.47%
ALGT	56 Neutral	$1.77B	-34.43	-25.37%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
ULCC	52 Neutral	$904.66M	-7.87	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%
JBLU	50 Neutral	$1.90B	-2.79	-25.29%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
VLRS	49 Neutral	$886.70M	-9.81	-33.25%	―	-6.55%	-133.03%

Allegiant Travel Company Corporate Events

Allegiant Travel targets 2026 margin and EPS growth

Reporting February 4, 2026, Allegiant posted fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP EPS of $1.73 and adjusted airline-only EPS of $2.72 on $656.2 million in revenue, while the full year showed a GAAP loss per share of $2.48 but adjusted airline-only EPS of $5.07; management highlighted industry-leading completion rates, a 6% reduction in unit costs, and a planned Sun Country acquisition to bolster its leisure carrier strategy. The company expects 2026 adjusted operating momentum to continue with a projected 13.5% first-quarter margin and full-year adjusted EPS topping $8, underpinned by Allegiant Extra expansion, technology upgrades, and growing MAX aircraft contributions, positioning the carrier for stronger profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALGT) stock is a Buy with a $108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allegiant Travel Company stock, see the ALGT Stock Forecast page.

Allegiant Travel to Acquire Sun Country in Merger

On January 11, 2026, Allegiant Travel Company signed a definitive cash-and-stock merger agreement to acquire Sun Country Airlines at an implied value of $18.89 per share, a roughly 19% premium to Sun Country’s prior close, valuing the target at about $1.5 billion including net debt and leaving Allegiant and Sun Country shareholders with approximately 67% and 33% of the combined company, respectively. Each Sun Country share will convert into $4.10 in cash plus 0.1557 Allegiant shares, while Sun Country’s equity awards will be rolled into Allegiant instruments or cashed out, Sun Country stock will be delisted from Nasdaq upon closing, and three Sun Country‑designated directors, including CEO Jude Bricker, will join an expanded Allegiant board; the deal, which is subject to shareholder approvals, multiple U.S. aviation and antitrust regulatory clearances, and standard closing conditions and termination-fee protections, is expected to create a leading leisure-focused U.S. airline with complementary route networks, expanded international reach, stronger charter and cargo operations, a larger loyalty program and targeted annual synergies of about $140 million by year three, with management positioning the combination as enhancing reliability, growth prospects and long-term value for customers, employees and investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALGT) stock is a Hold with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allegiant Travel Company stock, see the ALGT Stock Forecast page.

Allegiant Travel Amends Credit Agreement with Barclays

On December 5, 2025, Allegiant Travel Company amended its Revolving Credit and Guaranty Agreement with Barclays Bank PLC, allowing for borrowings up to $150 million and extending the maturity date to December 2030. This amendment also introduced Deutsche Bank AG New York Branch as a lender, with Barclays committing $100 million and Deutsche Bank $50 million, while maintaining the same guarantees, collateral, and covenants as the company’s Senior Secured Notes due 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALGT) stock is a Hold with a $86.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allegiant Travel Company stock, see the ALGT Stock Forecast page.