Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS)
NYSE:VLRS
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Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
(NYSE:VLRS)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▼(-5.06% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (TTM losses, deteriorating free cash flow, and very high leverage with a thin equity buffer). Technicals also remain bearish with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call provided improving 2026 guidance and a clearer operational recovery path (AOG reduction and targeted deleveraging), but execution and maintenance/CapEx risks remain high.
Positive Factors
High ancillary revenue mix
A >50% ancillary share shows durable revenue diversification beyond fares. Optional fees (bags, seats, changes) boost unit economics, cushion yields in competitive markets, and are sticky via digital sales. Over 2–6 months this supports revenue resilience and margin recovery as capacity normalizes.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and thin equity
Extremely elevated leverage leaves a thin equity cushion in a cyclical airline business, reducing financial flexibility to absorb shocks or invest opportunistically. High fixed obligations constrain operational choices and increase refinancing and covenant risk across the 2–6 month horizon despite management's stated deleveraging targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High ancillary revenue mix
A >50% ancillary share shows durable revenue diversification beyond fares. Optional fees (bags, seats, changes) boost unit economics, cushion yields in competitive markets, and are sticky via digital sales. Over 2–6 months this supports revenue resilience and margin recovery as capacity normalizes.
Read all positive factors
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$923.00M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)831.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth-6.55%
EPS Growth-133.03%
CountryUS
Employees6,901
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding116,597,670
10 Day Avg. Volume557,286
30 Day Avg. Volume831,815
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)0.34
P/FCF Ratio1.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.60
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.60Price Target Upside21.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.49B
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Volaris primarily makes money by selling passenger air transportation on scheduled flights. Its revenue model is based on an ultra-low-cost carrier approach: offering a base fare and charging separately for additional products and services. Key re...
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but cautiously constructive view: Volaris delivered strong quarter-level revenue recovery, robust ancillary performance, healthy liquidity and clear 2026 guidance while outlining a concrete plan to reduce aircraft-on-ground levels and restore fleet productivity. However, full-year results show a revenue decline and a sizeable net loss driven primarily by engine-related groundings, elevated maintenance and redelivery costs, and increased near-term CapEx. Management emphasized disciplined capacity management, recovery of AOGs, and structural strengths of the ultra-low-cost model, suggesting improving fundamentals through 2026 once engine availability normalizes.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Total operating revenues for Q4 2025 were $882 million, up 5.6% year-over-year, driven by TRASM recovery in the back half of the year.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Revenue Decline and Net Loss
Total operating revenues for full-year 2025 were $3.0 billion, down 3% versus 2024, and the company reported a full-year net loss of $104 million (loss per ADS $0.91).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Total operating revenues for Q4 2025 were $882 million, up 5.6% year-over-year, driven by TRASM recovery in the back half of the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Volaris guided to full‑year 2026 ASM growth of about 7%, an EBITDAR margin around 33%, and CapEx (net of finance fleet predelivery payments) of roughly $350 million, assuming an average FX rate of MXN 17.7/USD and Gulf Coast jet fuel of $2.10–2.20/gal; roughly two‑thirds of 2026 capacity growth will be allocated to cross‑border markets (international capacity ≈42% of total). Management expects AOGs to improve to ~25 at year‑end (full‑year average ≈33 AOGs, implying three more aircraft back in service vs. 2025), net debt/EBITDAR to deleverage from 3.1x to ~2.6x by year‑end, and to maintain liquidity above its 20% target (Q4 liquidity was $774M, 25.5% of LTM revenues). For Q1 2026 they guided ASM ≈3% y/y, TRASM ≈ $0.085, CASM ex fuel ≈ $0.06 (FX at MXN 17.5/USD adds ~ $0.004 to CASM ex), EBITDAR margin ≈25%, and jet fuel ≈ $2.20/gal, while flagging ~ $0.22 of nonrecurring unit cost impact in the quarter related to accelerated engine inductions and one‑time merger expenses and plans to induct roughly twice as many engines in 2026 versus 2025.Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.04B | 3.14B | 3.26B | 2.85B | 2.20B |
| Gross Profit | 831.00M | 1.11B | 505.20M | 245.50M | 548.84M |
| EBITDA | 792.00M | 1.07B | 722.52M | 477.05M | 600.99M |
| Net Income | -104.00M | 126.00M | 7.82M | -80.22M | 106.45M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.64B | 5.70B | 5.15B | 4.47B | 4.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 774.00M | 945.18M | 776.48M | 711.85M | 745.41M |
| Total Debt | 3.86B | 3.87B | 3.54B | 2.98B | 2.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.37B | 5.34B | 4.90B | 4.23B | 3.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 263.00M | 364.81M | 242.59M | 234.74M | 314.95M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 750.00M | 506.65M | 238.69M | 259.67M | 589.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 750.00M | 1.09B | 729.83M | 613.60M | 785.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -89.00M | -472.00M | -462.04M | -130.69M | -134.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -819.00M | -472.00M | -214.39M | -513.09M | -435.18M |
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Positive
7.90
Price Trends
8.26
Negative
8.37
Negative
7.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
54.97
Neutral
77.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLRS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.32, below the 50-day MA of 8.26, and above the 200-day MA of 7.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLRS.
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Risk Analysis
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $962.99M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
54 Neutral | $1.63B | ― | -4.22% | ― | 3.29% | -983.31% | |
54 Neutral | $20.48B | 50.61 | 5.33% | 1.73% | 0.65% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $2.11B | -2.79 | -26.05% | ― | -2.49% | 47.88% | |
45 Neutral | $923.00M | -9.81 | -20.74% | ― | -6.55% | -133.03% | |
45 Neutral | $918.93M | -7.87 | -27.39% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% |
* Industrials Sector Average
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
7.90
3.54
81.19%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
88.24
44.08
99.82%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
5.66
1.99
54.22%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
41.70
17.45
71.96%
SNCY
Sun Country Airlines Holdings
17.77
8.89
100.11%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
4.00
0.83
26.18%
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Corporate Events
Volaris Calls April 24, 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Board Changes
Apr 8, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Volaris convened a general ordinary annual shareholders meeting for April 24, 2026, at its Mexico City headquarters, outlining a broad agenda that includes approval of 2025 financial statements and regulatory reports. The meeting...
Volaris Posts Higher March Load Factor as International Traffic Outpaces Domestic Demand
Apr 8, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Volaris reported its preliminary traffic figures for March 2026, highlighting a consolidated load factor of 84.7%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, as it carried 2.7 million passengers. Overall capacity measured in availabl...
Volaris Shareholders Approve Key Steps for Viva Aerobus Merger
Mar 27, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Volaris held an extraordinary general shareholders’ meeting at which investors overwhelmingly approved resolutions tied to its proposed merger with Mexican low-cost rival Grupo Viva Aerobus. The meeting reached a 93.7% quo...
Volaris Posts Strong February 2026 Load Factor on Surging International Traffic
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Volaris reported its preliminary traffic figures for February 2026, showing a consolidated load factor of 85.7% as capacity measured in available seat miles rose 1.0% and revenue passenger miles increased 1.5%. The carrier trans...
Volaris Sets March 25 Shareholder Vote on Merger with Viva Aerobus
Mar 10, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Volaris’ board convened an extraordinary general shareholders’ meeting for March 25, 2026 in Mexico City, calling investors to vote on amendments to its bylaws and corporate governance to reflect recent changes in Mex...
Volaris Files Q4 2025 Results and Details Conservative Hedging Strategy
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Volaris filed a Form 6-K noting it had issued a press release reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighted by an EBITDAR margin of 37.2 percent. The filing, signed by the chief executive and chi...
Volaris Kicks Off 2026 With Higher Traffic but Softer Load Factor in January
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Volaris reported its preliminary traffic figures for January 2026, showing a consolidated load factor of 84.8%, down 1.8 percentage points year over year. The ultra-low-cost carrier increased available seat miles by 4.3% and r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.