Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS)
NYSE:VLRS
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Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
(NYSE:VLRS)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▼(-7.64% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
VLRS scores below average primarily due to weakened profitability and very high leverage, which elevate downside risk in a volatile industry. Technicals are neutral with limited momentum. The earnings call adds modest support via specific 2026 recovery/deleveraging guidance and operational plans, but valuation remains hard to assess with negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
High ancillary revenue mix
A 56% ancillary share demonstrates Volaris’s ultra-low-cost model converts passenger traffic into high-margin add-ons. Durable monetization per passenger reduces reliance on base fares, supports revenue resilience across cycles, and helps sustain margins as capacity and demand normalize over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Very high and rising leverage
A sharply higher leverage ratio materially reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and covenant risk in a capital-intensive airline. With equity shrinking and debt elevated, the company is more vulnerable to demand or fuel shocks and has less room to absorb further margin pressure over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High ancillary revenue mix
A 56% ancillary share demonstrates Volaris’s ultra-low-cost model converts passenger traffic into high-margin add-ons. Durable monetization per passenger reduces reliance on base fares, supports revenue resilience across cycles, and helps sustain margins as capacity and demand normalize over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$897.20M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)803.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth4.23%
EPS Growth-405.62%
CountryUS
Employees6,901
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.72
Shares Outstanding116,597,670
10 Day Avg. Volume596,136
30 Day Avg. Volume803,023
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.03
P/FCF Ratio0.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.60Price Target Upside18.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.56B
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Volaris primarily makes money by selling passenger air transportation on scheduled flights. Its revenue model is based on an ultra-low-cost carrier approach: offering a base fare and charging separately for additional products and services. Key re...
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but cautiously constructive view: Volaris delivered strong quarter-level revenue recovery, robust ancillary performance, healthy liquidity and clear 2026 guidance while outlining a concrete plan to reduce aircraft-on-ground levels and restore fleet productivity. However, full-year results show a revenue decline and a sizeable net loss driven primarily by engine-related groundings, elevated maintenance and redelivery costs, and increased near-term CapEx. Management emphasized disciplined capacity management, recovery of AOGs, and structural strengths of the ultra-low-cost model, suggesting improving fundamentals through 2026 once engine availability normalizes.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Total operating revenues for Q4 2025 were $882 million, up 5.6% year-over-year, driven by TRASM recovery in the back half of the year.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Revenue Decline and Net Loss
Total operating revenues for full-year 2025 were $3.0 billion, down 3% versus 2024, and the company reported a full-year net loss of $104 million (loss per ADS $0.91).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Total operating revenues for Q4 2025 were $882 million, up 5.6% year-over-year, driven by TRASM recovery in the back half of the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Volaris guided to full‑year 2026 ASM growth of about 7%, an EBITDAR margin around 33%, and CapEx (net of finance fleet predelivery payments) of roughly $350 million, assuming an average FX rate of MXN 17.7/USD and Gulf Coast jet fuel of $2.10–2.20/gal; roughly two‑thirds of 2026 capacity growth will be allocated to cross‑border markets (international capacity ≈42% of total). Management expects AOGs to improve to ~25 at year‑end (full‑year average ≈33 AOGs, implying three more aircraft back in service vs. 2025), net debt/EBITDAR to deleverage from 3.1x to ~2.6x by year‑end, and to maintain liquidity above its 20% target (Q4 liquidity was $774M, 25.5% of LTM revenues). For Q1 2026 they guided ASM ≈3% y/y, TRASM ≈ $0.085, CASM ex fuel ≈ $0.06 (FX at MXN 17.5/USD adds ~ $0.004 to CASM ex), EBITDAR margin ≈25%, and jet fuel ≈ $2.20/gal, while flagging ~ $0.22 of nonrecurring unit cost impact in the quarter related to accelerated engine inductions and one‑time merger expenses and plans to induct roughly twice as many engines in 2026 versus 2025.Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
41
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.13B | 3.04B | 3.14B | 3.26B | 2.85B | 2.20B |
| Gross Profit | 175.84M | 173.84M | 515.50M | 505.20M | 245.50M | 548.84M |
| EBITDA | 175.53M | 850.27M | 1.07B | 721.02M | 477.05M | 600.99M |
| Net Income | -123.87M | -103.87M | 126.38M | 7.82M | -80.22M | 106.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.65B | 5.64B | 5.70B | 5.15B | 4.47B | 4.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 758.53M | 774.00M | 945.18M | 776.48M | 711.85M | 745.41M |
| Total Debt | 3.82B | 3.86B | 3.87B | 3.54B | 2.98B | 2.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.45B | 5.37B | 5.34B | 4.90B | 4.23B | 3.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 207.00M | 263.00M | 364.81M | 242.59M | 234.74M | 314.95M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 502.43M | 750.00M | 506.65M | 238.69M | 259.67M | 589.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 777.84M | 750.00M | 1.09B | 729.83M | 613.60M | 785.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -116.74M | -89.00M | -472.00M | -462.04M | -130.69M | -134.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -835.81M | -819.00M | -472.00M | -214.39M | -513.09M | -435.18M |
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Positive
8.12
Price Trends
8.17
Negative
8.40
Negative
7.27
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
57.52
Neutral
81.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLRS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.40, below the 50-day MA of 8.17, and above the 200-day MA of 7.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLRS.
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Risk Analysis
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $922.42M | 9.24 | 6.44% | ― | 4.36% | -25.89% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $1.53B | 8.68 | -4.39% | ― | 3.31% | 82.72% | |
52 Neutral | $1.22B | -0.74 | -88.57% | ― | -0.47% | -632.83% | |
51 Neutral | $20.19B | 20.61 | 10.67% | 1.73% | 4.72% | 72.71% | |
49 Neutral | $897.20M | -2.93 | -50.21% | ― | 4.23% | -405.62% | |
46 Neutral | $1.90B | -1.28 | -33.13% | ― | -0.52% | -138.22% |
* Industrials Sector Average
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
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3.55
85.96%
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Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Corporate Events
Volaris Boosts April Load Factor to 85% as It Cuts Domestic Capacity, Shifts to Transborder Routes
May 7, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Volaris reported its preliminary traffic results for April 2026, showing that consolidated load factor rose 2.9 percentage points year over year to 84.6% as the airline carried 2.7 million passengers. Capacity measured in available...
Volaris Details Q1 2026 Hedging Strategy in Form 6-K Filing
Apr 28, 2026
On April 27, 2026, Volaris filed a Form 6-K noting it had released its first-quarter 2026 financial results and detailed its use of derivative instruments strictly for hedging rather than trading. The company outlined a conservative risk managemen...
Volaris Shareholders Approve All Resolutions at April 24 Annual Meeting
Apr 24, 2026
On April 24, 2026, Volaris reported that shareholders at its general ordinary annual meeting in Mexico City approved all items presented on the agenda. The airline said a summary of the resolutions adopted at the meeting was made available in an a...
Volaris Updates Bylaws After March 25 Shareholder Approval
Apr 17, 2026
Volaris, the Mexican ultra-low-cost airline listed in New York and Mexico, reported that shareholders approved amendments to the company’s bylaws at an Extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting held on March 25, 2026. The company dis...
Volaris Calls April 24, 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Board Changes
Apr 8, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Volaris convened a general ordinary annual shareholders meeting for April 24, 2026, at its Mexico City headquarters, outlining a broad agenda that includes approval of 2025 financial statements and regulatory reports. The meeting...
Volaris Posts Higher March Load Factor as International Traffic Outpaces Domestic Demand
Apr 8, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Volaris reported its preliminary traffic figures for March 2026, highlighting a consolidated load factor of 84.7%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, as it carried 2.7 million passengers. Overall capacity measured in availabl...
Volaris Shareholders Approve Key Steps for Viva Aerobus Merger
Mar 27, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Volaris held an extraordinary general shareholders’ meeting at which investors overwhelmingly approved resolutions tied to its proposed merger with Mexican low-cost rival Grupo Viva Aerobus. The meeting reached a 93.7% quo...
Volaris Posts Strong February 2026 Load Factor on Surging International Traffic
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Volaris reported its preliminary traffic figures for February 2026, showing a consolidated load factor of 85.7% as capacity measured in available seat miles rose 1.0% and revenue passenger miles increased 1.5%. The carrier trans...
Volaris Sets March 25 Shareholder Vote on Merger with Viva Aerobus
Mar 10, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Volaris’ board convened an extraordinary general shareholders’ meeting for March 25, 2026 in Mexico City, calling investors to vote on amendments to its bylaws and corporate governance to reflect recent changes in Mex...
Volaris Files Q4 2025 Results and Details Conservative Hedging Strategy
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Volaris filed a Form 6-K noting it had issued a press release reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighted by an EBITDAR margin of 37.2 percent. The filing, signed by the chief executive and chi...
Volaris Kicks Off 2026 With Higher Traffic but Softer Load Factor in January
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Volaris reported its preliminary traffic figures for January 2026, showing a consolidated load factor of 84.8%, down 1.8 percentage points year over year. The ultra-low-cost carrier increased available seat miles by 4.3% and r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.