Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 562.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -6.55%
• EPS Growth: -133.03%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,901
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 116,597,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 768,011
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 562,610
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.42
• 1Y Price Target: $11.48
• Price Target Upside: 17.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(2.77% Upside)

VLRS scores in the mid-range primarily due to weak financial performance (profitability pressure and high leverage) despite supportive technical momentum. Earnings call takeaways are mixed with reaffirmed margin guidance and strong demand indicators, but operational disruptions and revenue softness persist; valuation remains constrained by negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Ancillary Revenue Strength

Consistently high ancillary revenue per passenger diversifies income beyond fares, supporting revenue resilience and margin stability. For a low-cost carrier this durable stream improves unit economics, funds network growth and cushions profitability against fare cyclicality over months.

High Domestic Load Factor

Sustained high domestic load factors indicate strong market demand and efficient aircraft utilization, which support stable yields and lower unit costs. This structural strength underpins durable margin support and capacity deployment flexibility across the domestic network.

Planned Merger with Viva Aerobus

A merger-of-equals creates scale, potential cost synergies, enhanced capital access and lower aircraft ownership costs. If approved, the combined group would structurally strengthen competitive position, network connectivity and long-term financial flexibility in Mexico's market.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Elevated leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constraining strategic investments and capital allocation. With limited equity buffer, downturns or cost shocks can impair liquidity and force deleveraging measures that hinder growth and operational flexibility over months.

Declining Revenue & Negative Net Margin

Falling top-line and a negative net margin undermine sustainable profitability and reduce retained earnings available for investment or debt reduction. Even with positive EBITDA metrics, persistent revenue declines pressure long-term cash flow conversion and shareholder returns.

Operational Risk from Aircraft Groundings

Prolonged or repeated aircraft groundings disrupt capacity, raise maintenance and lease costs, and damage reliability perception. These operational shocks reduce available ASMs, inflate unit costs, and can materially impair growth plans and margins over a multi‑month horizon.

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The company operates approximately 410 daily flights on routes connecting 43 cities in Mexico, 22 cities in the United States, and 3 cities in Central America. As of December 31, 2020, it operated through a fleet of 86 aircraft. The company also offers merchandising, recruitment and payroll, travel agency, and loyalty program services. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

How the Company Makes Money

Volaris generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from ticket sales of its scheduled flights. The airline operates on a low-cost model, enabling it to offer competitive fares while charging additional fees for services such as baggage, seat selection, and onboard refreshments. Ancillary revenues from these additional services significantly contribute to the company's earnings. Furthermore, the company benefits from partnerships with travel agencies and online booking platforms, enhancing its market reach. Other revenue sources may include cargo transportation and potential codeshare agreements with other airlines, which allow it to expand its service offerings and customer base without extensive capital investment.

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are pressured: declining revenue growth and negative net margin (income statement weakness) plus high leverage and negative ROE (balance sheet risk). Cash flow is comparatively steadier with favorable operating cash flow and free cash flow efficiency, but not enough to offset profitability and leverage concerns.

Income Statement

The income statement shows mixed results. The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue growth rate in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Gross profit margin is relatively low, and the net profit margin has turned negative, reflecting profitability issues. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are positive, suggesting some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio significantly above industry norms, posing financial risk. The return on equity is negative in the TTM period, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low, suggesting reliance on debt financing. These factors highlight potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, but the company maintains a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating some ability to generate cash from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, suggesting efficient cash management despite profitability challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.99B	3.14B	3.26B	2.85B	2.20B	1.07B
Gross Profit	383.00M	1.11B	505.20M	245.50M	548.84M	-26.02M
EBITDA	567.00M	1.07B	722.52M	477.05M	600.99M	143.59M
Net Income	-62.00M	126.00M	7.82M	-80.22M	106.45M	-191.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.70B	5.70B	5.15B	4.47B	4.01B	3.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	785.58M	945.18M	776.48M	711.85M	745.41M	507.82M
Total Debt	3.87B	3.87B	3.54B	2.98B	2.73B	2.49B
Total Liabilities	5.44B	5.34B	4.90B	4.23B	3.69B	3.29B
Stockholders Equity	262.00M	364.81M	242.59M	234.74M	314.95M	140.54M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	531.02M	506.65M	238.69M	259.67M	589.17M	50.81M
Operating Cash Flow	755.27M	1.09B	729.83M	613.60M	785.36M	213.75M
Investing Cash Flow	-176.68M	-472.00M	-462.04M	-130.69M	-134.65M	-3.15M
Financing Cash Flow	-585.83M	-472.00M	-214.39M	-513.09M	-435.18M	-129.57M

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.73
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLRS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.28, above the 50-day MA of 8.41, and above the 200-day MA of 6.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLRS.

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNCY	69 Neutral	$937.58M	16.71	9.99%	―	4.27%	28.47%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
LUV	61 Neutral	$24.58B	60.15	4.81%	1.73%	0.65%	―
VLRS	54 Neutral	$1.12B	-17.66	-21.74%	―	-6.55%	-133.03%
ALGT	54 Neutral	$1.62B	-5.44	-25.37%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
JBLU	49 Neutral	$1.77B	-2.92	-25.29%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
ULCC	47 Neutral	$1.06B	-7.72	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV Corporate Events

Volaris Ends 2025 With Higher Traffic But Lower Load Factor in December

On January 8, 2026, Volaris reported its preliminary traffic results for December 2025, highlighting a 9.5% year-on-year increase in available seat miles and a 5.1% rise in revenue passenger miles, driven particularly by an 10.7% jump in international demand, while domestic RPMs grew 1.3%. The airline’s consolidated load factor declined by 3.5 percentage points to 84.1% as capacity growth outpaced traffic, though it still transported 3.0 million passengers in the month, with both domestic and international passenger volumes increasing. Management said December demand patterns showed a return to historical seasonality and continued recovery in the cross-border visiting-friends-and-relatives market, while noting that severe weather at Tijuana, a key origin airport, forced the carrier to fly fewer domestic ASMs than planned, underscoring both operational headwinds and Volaris’ focus on flexibility and execution as it enters 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLRS) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV stock, see the VLRS Stock Forecast page.

Volaris and Viva Aerobus Agree to Merge Holdings and Form New Mexican Airline Group

On December 18, 2025, Volaris and fellow Mexican low-cost carrier Grupo Viva Aerobus announced they had signed an agreement to create a new Mexican airline group under a holding company structure, while preserving their separate brands and operating certificates. The planned merger of equals will see shareholders of both carriers each own 50% of the combined holding company, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals in Mexico and other jurisdictions. The companies say the structure is designed to leverage economies of scale to reduce aircraft ownership costs, improve access to capital and strengthen the group’s financial profile, enabling expansion of ultra-low fares and point-to-point connectivity across Mexico and internationally. Management highlights expected benefits for employees (greater job stability and growth opportunities), passengers (more routes and better connectivity while retaining choice between two brands), local communities (more investment, tourism and job creation) and shareholders (cost synergies and enhanced growth prospects), potentially reshaping Mexico’s aviation landscape if the transaction is completed as planned.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLRS) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV stock, see the VLRS Stock Forecast page.

Volaris Reports Strong November 2025 Traffic Results

On December 4, 2025, Volaris reported its November 2025 traffic results, highlighting a 5.8% increase in ASM capacity and a 3.9% growth in RPMs. Despite a slight year-over-year decrease in the consolidated load factor to 85.3%, the company transported 2.7 million passengers. The results reflect a recovery in cross-border traffic and stable domestic demand, positioning Volaris well for 2026. The company’s strategy appears effective, as indicated by the positive trends in travel sentiment, especially in the cross-border market.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLRS) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV stock, see the VLRS Stock Forecast page.

Volaris Reports Strong October 2025 Traffic with 86% Load Factor

On November 5, 2025, Volaris reported its October 2025 traffic results, highlighting a load factor of 85.9%. The airline experienced a 1.1% increase in available seat miles (ASM) capacity, while revenue passenger miles (RPM) saw a slight decline of 0.6%. Despite a decrease in domestic RPMs by 1.9%, international RPMs rose by 1.4%. Volaris transported 2.6 million passengers in October. The results indicate strong travel sentiment and a return to sales levels similar to the previous year, positioning the company well for sustainable value delivery.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLRS) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV stock, see the VLRS Stock Forecast page.

Volaris Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results with 33.6% EBITDAR Margin

On October 27, 2025, Volaris announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting an EBITDAR margin of 33.6%. The company employs a conservative hedging policy to manage financial risks related to fuel price fluctuations, foreign currency, and interest rate variations. These strategies aim to mitigate potential adverse effects on earnings and working capital, ensuring stable operations amidst market uncertainties.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLRS) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV stock, see the VLRS Stock Forecast page.