Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI)
NASDAQ:REFI
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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
(NASDAQ:REFI)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$13.00
â–²(7.35% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid-but-mixed financial performance (growth and moderate leverage offset by earnings/cash-flow consistency concerns) and a constructive earnings-call outlook supporting dividend continuity and portfolio resilience. Valuation is a major positive due to the very high yield and extremely low P/E, while technical signals are broadly neutral and do not materially improve or weaken the overall view.
Positive Factors
High portfolio yield & protective rate structures
A 16%+ portfolio yield combined with mostly floored floating loans and limited exposure to rate declines creates a durable interest-income advantage. This supports predictable net interest margins across rate cycles, cushioning earnings and dividend capacity versus peers with unsecured or unprotected floaters.
Negative Factors
Earnings quality and cash-flow variability
Accounting anomalies and volatile free cash flow reduce confidence in recurring distributable earnings. When cash conversion and reported net margin diverge, forecasting dividends and core profitability becomes harder, increasing the risk that payouts rely on one-time items or timing effects rather than sustainable operations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High portfolio yield & protective rate structures
A 16%+ portfolio yield combined with mostly floored floating loans and limited exposure to rate declines creates a durable interest-income advantage. This supports predictable net interest margins across rate cycles, cushioning earnings and dividend capacity versus peers with unsecured or unprotected floaters.
Read all positive factors
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc (REFI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$241.55M
Dividend Yield15.86%
Average Volume (3M)152.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth1.82%
EPS Growth-24.02%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.46
Shares Outstanding21,207,228
10 Day Avg. Volume187,087
30 Day Avg. Volume152,231
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)0.84
Price to Sales (P/S)4.08
P/FCF Ratio8.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap90.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue365.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit389.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.45K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside40.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$55.80M
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate finance company in the United States. It originates, structures, and invests in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real e...
How the Company Makes Money
REFI makes money primarily by earning interest income on the loans it originates and holds, typically loans secured by commercial real estate and/or related collateral. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Interest income: periodic interest ...
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive operational and financial picture: expanding pipeline (+48.5%), increased net interest income (+4%), robust yield (16.3%), conservative credit reserves (CECL ~1.23% of loans), protective rate structures (only 9% exposed to further rate declines), low leverage (32% of book equity), and continued dividend support. Challenges include a small quarter-over-quarter yield dip, two nonaccruals tied to an Arizona sponsor, liquidity constrained relative to pipeline, higher interest expense, and meaningful early prepayments that create reinvestment risk. On balance the highlights — notably pipeline growth, protective loan structures, and stable credit reserves with ongoing dividend policy — outweigh the lowlights, though regulatory timing and select asset distress remain watch items.Positive Updates
Portfolio Size and Yield
Loan portfolio principal of approximately $411 million across 26 portfolio companies with a weighted average yield to maturity of 16.3% (down 0.2 percentage points from 16.5% in Q3).
Negative Updates
Nonaccrual Loans and Sponsor Issues in Arizona
Two new nonaccrual loans are related to the same sponsor in Arizona, reflecting a challenging pricing environment in that market. Loan #9 remains on nonaccrual despite being brought current on interest and upgraded from risk rating 4 to 3.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Portfolio Size and Yield
Loan portfolio principal of approximately $411 million across 26 portfolio companies with a weighted average yield to maturity of 16.3% (down 0.2 percentage points from 16.5% in Q3).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 90%–100% of basic distributable earnings per share for the 2026 tax year (with a potential special dividend in Q4 if taxable income requires), reiterated a target of net portfolio growth for 2026, and said deployment will be paced by available liquidity (approximately $50M total liquidity net of estimated liabilities and roughly $53M available on the senior facility as of March 12) against a $616M pipeline. Management noted recent and near-term activity (Q4 gross originations $19M; subsequent period advances $51.1M and repayments $40.4M) and emphasized portfolio resilience metrics supporting the guidance: $411M loan portfolio across 26 companies, 16.3% weighted average yield to maturity, 37.6% fixed / 62.4% floating (only 9% exposed to further rate decline at prime = 6.75%), CECL reserve ~$5.1M (1.23% of principal), weighted real estate coverage 1.2x, weighted loan-to-enterprise-value 44.2%, and total leverage of 32% of book equity (Q4 NII $14.2M; modeled 100 bp rate decline ≈ $14k NII reduction).Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 59.52M | 63.10M | 54.78M | 57.33M | 48.86M | 14.47M |
| Gross Profit | 55.86M | 54.82M | 54.78M | 57.33M | 48.86M | 14.24M |
| EBITDA | 15.04M | 36.01M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 30.81M | 36.01M | 37.05M | 38.71M | 32.29M | 12.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 435.95B | 424.92M | 435.15M | 359.23M | 343.27M | 278.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.86B | 14.95M | 26.40M | 7.90M | 5.72M | 80.25M |
| Total Debt | 49.39B | 98.43M | 104.10M | 66.00M | 58.00M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 132.53B | 117.10M | 126.19M | 87.37M | 79.24M | 14.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 303.42B | 307.81M | 308.96M | 271.85M | 264.03M | 264.08M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 24.33M | 28.79M | 23.16M | 28.42M | 17.01M | 6.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.33M | 28.79M | 23.16M | 28.42M | 17.01M | 6.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 4.96M | 8.74M | -39.30M | -1.93M | -125.24M | -145.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.31M | -48.98M | 34.64M | -24.31M | 33.71M | 218.80M |
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
12.11
Price Trends
11.67
Negative
11.71
Negative
11.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.13
Positive
40.18
Neutral
12.44
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.78, above the 50-day MA of 11.67, and above the 200-day MA of 11.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for REFI.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Risk Analysis
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc disclosed 109 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $288.19M | 3.09 | 16.68% | 14.36% | -1.80% | 39.83% | |
70 Outperform | $241.55M | 12.32 | 0.04% | 15.86% | 1.82% | -24.02% | |
66 Neutral | $188.00M | 10.50 | 5.14% | 13.82% | -7.31% | -22.36% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $240.43M | -16.28 | 6.11% | 9.61% | 15.52% | -54.74% | |
52 Neutral | $266.31M | -6.91 | -3.88% | 13.75% | -35.42% | -46.68% | |
50 Neutral | $209.28M | -6.89 | 6.23% | 14.83% | 31.73% | -55.72% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
11.39
-1.15
-9.14%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.80
0.76
18.81%
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
8.32
-1.90
-18.58%
MITT
AG Mortgage
7.56
1.35
21.78%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
15.29
2.45
19.08%
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
8.40
-0.05
-0.57%
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Chicago Atlantic Posts Q1 2026 Results Amid Cannabis Shift
Positive
May 7, 2026
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance reported its first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, 2026, highlighting net interest income of about $13.1 million and distributable earnings of $0.46–$0.47 per share, alongside regular dividends of $0.47 pe...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Reports Strong 2025 Results
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance on March 12, 2026 reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting net interest income of $14.2 million for the quarter and $55.4 million for the year, with quarterly net income of $8.2 mill...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.