Want to see REFI full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
(NASDAQ:REFI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
â–²(8.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
REFI scores highest on valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield) and has a generally sound balance sheet with strong margins, supporting the overall rating. The score is held back by weaker recent revenue trajectory and cash conversion, a technically soft trend versus longer moving averages, and earnings-call risks including leverage rising, tight liquidity, and dividend coverage/transaction execution uncertainty.
Positive Factors
High portfolio yield
A sustained portfolio yield near 15.8% gives REFI durable net interest margin capacity versus peers. That yield premium helps absorb higher funding costs, supports distributable income and provides a structural buffer for returns as long as credit performance remains intact and deployment continues.
Negative Factors
Top-line decline & weak cash conversion
A sizable TTM revenue decline (~24.5%) coupled with operating cash flow covering only ~30% of net income raises durability concerns. Weaker cash conversion increases earnings volatility, constrains dividend runway and limits free cash to fund originations without external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High portfolio yield
A sustained portfolio yield near 15.8% gives REFI durable net interest margin capacity versus peers. That yield premium helps absorb higher funding costs, supports distributable income and provides a structural buffer for returns as long as credit performance remains intact and deployment continues.
Read all positive factors
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc (REFI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$276.20M
Dividend Yield17.42%
Average Volume (3M)185.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.8
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth-2.58%
EPS Growth-25.73%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.39
Shares Outstanding25,621,145
10 Day Avg. Volume159,391
30 Day Avg. Volume185,407
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)0.84
Price to Sales (P/S)4.08
P/FCF Ratio8.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.00Price Target Upside96.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$57.01M
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. functions as a commercial real estate financing enterprise operating throughout the United States. Its primary activities include developing, arranging, and deploying capital into various secured debt ins...
How the Company Makes Money
REFI makes money primarily through net interest income generated on its portfolio of real estate-backed loans and credit investments. This typically includes (1) interest income earned on originated and acquired loans (often senior secured), (2) o...
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of strategic progress and short-term operational/financial frictions. Highlights include strong portfolio yield (15.8%), portfolio growth (~$453M principal), a large $649M pipeline, a value-accretive Koach financing (12% blended yield plus exit-fee convexity), improving credit metrics (non-accruals down to 3.7%), and a planned merger with LIEN intended to deliver scale and diversification. Offsetting these positives were timing-related distributable earnings falling short of the declared dividend ($0.44 vs $0.47), an increase in leverage (47% vs 38% prior quarter), limited immediate liquidity (~$15M available), higher interest expense, share issuance dilution from the Koach deal (~4.3M shares), and execution/regulatory risks tied to the merger and federal cannabis policy evolution. Management framed many negatives as temporary or structural trade-offs tied to growth and strategic transactions rather than credit deterioration.Positive Updates
Robust Portfolio Yield and Growth
Loan portfolio principal totaled ~$453M as of June 30, 2026, up ~ $40M quarter-over-quarter, with a weighted average yield to maturity of 15.8% (consistent with Q1 2026). Gross originations in Q2 were ~$56.8M while repayments were ~$19.7M (including ~$16.4M of full prepayments).
Negative Updates
Timing-Related Income Drag from Prepayments
Approximately $16.3M of loans prepaid early in the quarter and capital was not redeployed until later in the quarter, which reduced interest income and contributed to the $0.03 per-share distributable shortfall versus dividend.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Robust Portfolio Yield and Growth
Loan portfolio principal totaled ~$453M as of June 30, 2026, up ~ $40M quarter-over-quarter, with a weighted average yield to maturity of 15.8% (consistent with Q1 2026). Gross originations in Q2 were ~$56.8M while repayments were ~$19.7M (including ~$16.4M of full prepayments).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
REFI reiterated that it expects the proposed merger with LIEN to close in Q4 2026 (subject to stockholder, lender and regulatory approvals), will distribute any accumulated REIT taxable income prior to the merger, and plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 90–100% of basic distributable earnings for the 2026 tax year. Key metrics cited: a $649 million pipeline ( $204 million real-estate‑backed), a loan portfolio principal of ~$453 million across 26 companies with a weighted average yield to maturity of 15.8%, Q2 gross originations of $56.8 million offset by $19.7 million of repayments (≈$3.3M scheduled amortization, $16.4M prepayments), portfolio mix 37.5% fixed / 62.5% floating (74% of floating to prime, 26% to SOFR; prime at 6.75% with 100% of prime loans at floors and only ~3.6% of principal exposed to further rate declines), CECL reserves of ~$9.4 million (~2.3% of loans) with $0.6M on two new loans, non‑accruals at 3.7% (down from 4.8%), risk‑rated ≥4 at 10.8%, real‑estate coverage ~1.2x and loan‑to‑enterprise value ≈46%, total leverage 47% of book equity (vs. 38% prior), $90.1M outstanding on the revolver and $49.5M on the unsecured term loan with ~ $15M available liquidity, Q2 net interest income of $12.8M (down 2.2% from Q1) and interest expense of ~$2.4M, distributable earnings per share of $0.44 basic / $0.43 diluted with a $0.47 per‑share Q2 dividend, book value per share $14.15 (21.7M shares outstanding, ~26M pro forma after the Koach transaction). The Koach financing (32 retail properties) contributed ~$62.5M of second‑lien notes bearing 12% interest (10% cash, 2% PIK) plus exit fees up to 2.5x, issued ~4.3M shares at $14.53 (a 1% premium to prior book value); those notes are expected to qualify as REIT assets though they will be presented as a reduction to equity for GAAP purposes.Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 60.14M | 63.10M | 54.78M | 57.33M | 48.86M | 14.47M |
| Gross Profit | 54.88M | 54.82M | 54.78M | 57.33M | 48.86M | 14.24M |
| EBITDA | 24.90M | 36.01M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 563.46M | 101.15K |
| Net Income | 29.41M | 36.01M | 37.05M | 38.71M | 32.29M | 12.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 461.70M | 424.92M | 435.15M | 359.23M | 343.27M | 278.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.35M | 14.95M | 26.40M | 7.90M | 5.72M | 80.25M |
| Total Debt | 49.45M | 98.43M | 104.10M | 66.00M | 58.00M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 160.05M | 117.10M | 126.19M | 87.37M | 79.24M | 14.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 301.65M | 307.81M | 308.96M | 271.85M | 264.03M | 264.08M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.92M | 28.79M | 23.16M | 28.42M | 17.01M | 6.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 26.92M | 28.79M | 23.16M | 28.42M | 17.01M | 6.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.13M | 8.74M | -39.30M | -1.93M | -125.24M | -145.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.00M | -48.98M | 34.64M | -24.31M | 33.71M | 218.80M |
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
10.17
Price Trends
10.45
Positive
10.77
Positive
11.00
Negative
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
63.65
Neutral
76.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REFI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.23, below the 50-day MA of 10.45, and below the 200-day MA of 11.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REFI.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Risk Analysis
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc disclosed 113 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $321.92M | 4.91 | 18.36% | 11.91% | 1.61% | 14.36% | |
67 Neutral | $276.20M | 7.76 | 9.62% | 18.49% | -2.58% | -25.73% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $213.40M | 9.09 | 7.95% | 12.72% | 17.78% | -15.05% | |
57 Neutral | $191.29M | 10.71 | 7.31% | 14.55% | 25.55% | -50.15% | |
56 Neutral | $174.46M | 11.60 | 3.78% | 14.13% | -2.38% | -35.43% | |
50 Neutral | $264.64M | -62.82 | -0.88% | 12.93% | 28.95% | 76.08% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
10.79
-1.33
-11.00%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.73
0.73
18.16%
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
7.76
-1.58
-16.93%
MITT
AG Mortgage
6.73
0.18
2.73%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
17.59
4.25
31.85%
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
8.46
0.16
1.95%
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Chicago Atlantic Reports Q2 Results, Advances BDC Merger
Neutral
Aug 11, 2026
On August 11, 2026, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance reported second-quarter 2026 results showing $59.2 million in gross originations and total loan principal outstanding rising to about $453.1 million, with 26 portfolio companies. Net interes...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Chicago Atlantic expands cannabis real estate via private placement
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 9, 2026, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. completed a private placement with Koach Capital entities, issuing 4,306,754 common shares at $14.53 per share, or roughly 16.8% of its post-transaction equity, in exchange for about $62....
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A Transactions
Chicago Atlantic Announces All-Stock Merger with BDC Affiliate
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. agreed to a definitive all-stock merger under which it will elect BDC status and then merge into Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc., with LIEN surviving as the listed BDC on Nasdaq. The exchange...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Chicago Atlantic Shareholders Back Board and Auditor Slate
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors voted on board composition and the company’s auditor for the coming year. Shareholders elected five directors, including Jo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.