Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc (REFI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $259.71M
• Dividend Yield: 15.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 126.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: -1.57%
• EPS Growth: -15.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 21,080,273
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 113,058
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 126,766
• PEG Ratio: -0.65
• Price to Book (P/B): <0.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.09
• P/FCF Ratio: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 133.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 550.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 638.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.47K
• 1Y Price Target: $17.00
• Price Target Upside: 37.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $58.46M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(5.52% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is held back primarily by financial statement volatility in the latest TTM period (notably sharply negative cash flow and weaker revenue trend). Valuation is a key offset (low P/E and high dividend yield), while the earnings call was moderately positive with dividend support and portfolio resilience but acknowledged credit and liquidity constraints; technical signals are mixed-to-neutral.

Positive Factors

High Portfolio Yield

A 16.3% weighted average yield provides a durable margin cushion versus funding costs and supports recurring interest income. High portfolio yields bolster distributable earnings and dividend coverage, helping sustain cash returns and underwriting flexibility over the next several quarters.

Conservative Capital Structure

Moderate leverage (≈32% of book equity) and roughly $50M of net liquidity plus ~ $53M available on the senior facility provide balance-sheet stability. This conservatism reduces refinancing risk, supports dividend policy, and allows paced deployment without over-reliance on volatile capital markets.

Specialized Origination Platform

A dedicated origination team and ~$2.3B under management reflect durable competitive advantage in sourcing niche CRE credit. Specialized capabilities and track record (e.g., structuring unique facilities) support consistent deal flow, pricing power, and the ability to target resilient borrowers over multiple market cycles.

Negative Factors

TTM Cash Flow Deterioration

A sharp TTM swing to negative operating/free cash flow materially weakens cash conversion of earnings. That deterioration can constrain distributions, force reliance on borrowing or asset sales to fund operations, and reduces visibility into sustainable distributable earnings over the 2–6 month horizon.

Liquidity Tight vs Opportunity Set

With roughly $50M of net liquidity against a $616M pipeline, management may need to pace originations or access costlier funding. Persistent liquidity mismatch can slow net portfolio growth, increase funding cost sensitivity, and compress yield on new deployments over coming quarters.

Asset-Quality Concentration & Balance-Sheet Step-Change

Concentrated nonaccruals tied to one sponsor highlight idiosyncratic credit risk; combined with the TTM step-change in absolute debt and assets (per balance-sheet notes), this raises uncertainty on asset quality and provisions. Single-sponsor stress can drive elevated reserves and impair returns over the medium term.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate finance company in the United States. It originates, structures, and invests in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. The company offers senior loans to state-licensed operators and property owners in the cannabis industry. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

REFI makes money primarily by earning interest income on its loan and investment portfolio. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) recurring interest income from originated and acquired loans (including contractual cash interest and, where applicable, payment-in-kind interest that accrues to principal); (2) origination and structuring fees charged at loan closing (e.g., origination fees, commitment fees, and other transaction-related fees), which may be recognized over the life of the loan or at closing depending on accounting treatment; (3) prepayment fees, exit fees, and other borrower-paid charges tied to early repayment or loan modifications; and (4) income (or losses) from the sale of loans or investments, as well as fair-value changes on assets measured at fair value, if applicable. Profitability is influenced by the spread between asset yields (loan coupon rates and fee income) and the company’s cost of capital (such as interest expense on any borrowings and other funding costs), along with credit performance (defaults, restructurings, and realized/unrealized losses). Specific material partnerships, named borrowers, or facility counterparties contributing to earnings: null.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Historically strong profitability and moderate leverage are positives, but the latest TTM data shows sharp revenue decline and a significant deterioration in operating/free cash flow, with several TTM figures flagged as potentially non-comparable (raising near-term uncertainty).

Income Statement

Profitability appears strong on the surface, with net margins around ~66–68% across recent annual periods and solid returns on equity in the low-teens. However, revenue growth has turned negative (2024 down modestly; TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) down sharply), which weakens the earnings outlook. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net income figure is also extremely large relative to revenue, suggesting the period may include sizable non-recurring items that reduce comparability and visibility into ongoing earnings power.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate based on debt-to-equity (~0.22–0.34) and equity has grown versus earlier years, supporting balance-sheet stability. Returns on equity have been consistently healthy (roughly ~12–14% in recent annual periods). Key risk: the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) balance sheet shows dramatically higher absolute debt and assets than prior annual reports, indicating a major step-change that increases uncertainty and warrants caution around asset quality and funding structure despite the ratio-level leverage remaining reasonable.

Cash Flow

Annual operating cash generation was positive and generally covered net income in 2022–2024, which is a supportive signal for earnings quality. That said, TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating and free cash flow swing deeply negative, representing a material deterioration versus prior years. This sharp reversal raises concerns about cash conversion and potential working-capital or portfolio-related cash demands, even though historical periods were more stable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	62.94M	54.78M	57.33M	48.86M	14.47M
Gross Profit	54.73M	54.78M	57.33M	48.86M	14.24M
EBITDA	43.56M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	36.01M	37.05M	38.71M	32.29M	12.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	424.92B	435.15M	359.23M	343.27M	278.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.95B	26.40M	7.90M	5.72M	80.25M
Total Debt	49.33B	104.10M	66.00M	58.00M	0.00
Total Liabilities	117.10B	126.19M	87.37M	79.24M	14.09M
Stockholders Equity	307.81B	308.96M	271.85M	264.03M	264.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	28.79B	23.16M	28.42M	17.01M	6.67M
Operating Cash Flow	28.79B	23.16M	28.42M	17.01M	6.67M
Investing Cash Flow	8.74B	-39.30M	-1.93M	-125.24M	-145.22M
Financing Cash Flow	-48.98B	34.64M	-24.31M	33.71M	218.80M

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REFI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.12, above the 50-day MA of 12.22, and below the 200-day MA of 12.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REFI.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NREF	74 Outperform	$237.65M	3.21	19.02%	14.36%	15.51%	210.91%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
SEVN	65 Neutral	$191.17M	8.79	5.46%	13.82%	-18.06%	-18.94%
AOMR	65 Neutral	$207.04M	4.63	17.10%	14.83%	65.86%	-74.61%
REFI	60 Neutral	$259.71M	7.15	0.05%	15.86%	-1.57%	-15.32%
MITT	57 Neutral	$241.82M	4.98	8.85%	9.61%	20.44%	-59.21%
ACRE	51 Neutral	$267.98M	-16.99	-0.17%	13.75%	-30.60%	87.95%

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Corporate Events

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Reports Strong 2025 Results

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance on March 12, 2026 reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting net interest income of $14.2 million for the quarter and $55.4 million for the year, with quarterly net income of $8.2 million and annual diluted net income of $36.0 million. The REIT maintained a steady dividend of $0.47 per share, ended 2025 with $411.1 million of total loan principal across 26 portfolio companies and a 16.3% gross unlevered yield, while keeping more than 90% of its loan book insulated from further interest rate declines and building a $616 million investment pipeline that management said positioned the platform for a potentially pivotal 2026 amid evolving federal regulatory developments.

Management emphasized that new originations produced net portfolio growth in 2025 despite broader sector headwinds in credit quality, lower rates and competition, pointing to modest leverage with a 32.0% debt-to-equity ratio and book value of $14.60 per share at year-end. The combination of strong borrower demand for growth capital and potential regulatory relief that has improved equity valuations and borrower sentiment suggests continued opportunities for Chicago Atlantic, reinforcing its strategy of targeting resilient operators while seeking to preserve yields and protect shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (REFI) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc stock, see the REFI Stock Forecast page.