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Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. (AOMR)
NYSE:AOMR
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Angel Oak Mortgage
(NYSE:AOMR)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
â–¼(-6.80% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow (deeply negative TTM operating cash flow) and a soft technical trend (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by solid profitability, improved leverage, supportive valuation (moderate P/E and very high dividend yield), and earnings-call progress in net interest income and GAAP book value.
Positive Factors
Net Interest Income Growth
Sustained growth in net interest income indicates effective portfolio management and enhances long-term profitability, supporting strategic financial goals.
Successful Securitization Activities
Successful securitization activities improve liquidity and capital efficiency, enabling further investment in high-yield assets and supporting growth.
Operating Expense Reduction
Reduced operating expenses enhance margin sustainability and operational efficiency, contributing to improved financial health and competitive positioning.
Negative Factors
Revenue Instability
Revenue instability poses risks to financial predictability and strategic planning, potentially impacting long-term growth and market confidence.
High Leverage
High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, affecting long-term stability.
Negative Cash Flows
Negative cash flows indicate potential liquidity challenges, affecting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and meet financial obligations.
Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$213.76M
Dividend Yield14.83%
Average Volume (3M)78.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.8
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth65.86%
EPS Growth-74.61%
CountryUS
Employees300
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.29
Shares Outstanding24,914,036
10 Day Avg. Volume107,651
30 Day Avg. Volume78,636
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)4.36
P/FCF Ratio-1.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.08
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$48.91M
Angel Oak Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAngel Oak Mortgage, Inc., a real estate finance company, focuses on acquiring and investing in first lien non- qualified mortgage loans and other mortgage-related assets in the United States mortgage market. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAngel Oak Mortgage generates revenue primarily through the origination and servicing of mortgage loans. The company earns income from interest on loans issued, as well as from origination fees charged to borrowers at the time of loan closing. Additionally, AOMR benefits from servicing fees collected on loans it manages over time. The company may also engage in the sale of loans to investors in the secondary mortgage market, realizing revenue from the premium earned on these transactions. Strategic partnerships with real estate agents, financial institutions, and technology providers further enhance its market reach and revenue potential.
Angel Oak Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial trajectory highlighted by strong interest income and GAAP net income growth, repeated expense reductions, active securitization execution, attractive loan purchase economics, and solid credit metrics. The main concerns were the gap between GAAP and distributable earnings driven by unrealized valuation adjustments, rising prepayment speeds, intermittent securitization spread volatility, and increasing competition in the non‑QM origination market. Overall, the positives around earnings growth, funding execution, and portfolio credit performance outweigh the manageable headwinds discussed.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Interest Income and Net Interest Income Growth
Full-year interest income increased 30% to $143.7M and net interest income increased 11% to $41.1M versus 2024; Q4 interest income was $39.0M (up 22% YoY) and Q4 net interest income was $10.9M (up 10% YoY).
Material GAAP Net Income Improvement
GAAP net income for the year was $44.0M, or $1.80 per diluted share, representing 53% growth versus $28.8M (or $1.17) in 2024; Q4 GAAP net income was $11.3M versus a prior-year Q4 net loss.
Expense Reduction and Operating Efficiency
Full-year operating expenses were $16.4M, a 15.5% decrease versus 2024; excluding non-cash stock comp and securitization costs, operating expenses fell ~15.4% to $11.5M, and Q4 operating expenses were $5.2M (or $3.0M excluding non-cash items).
Active and Successful Securitization Execution
Completed four securitizations in 2025 securitizing $704.0M UPB, called two legacy 2019 deals, completed the company's first HELOC securitization (AOMT 2025-HB2), and contributed $274.3M to AOMT 2025-10 in Q4.
Strong Loan Purchase Activity with Attractive Yields
Purchased $861.8M of loans in 2025 with a weighted average coupon of 7.79%, weighted average CLTV of 65.4% and a weighted average credit score of 756; whole loan portfolio WA coupon was 7.38%, HELOCs/closed-end seconds 9.75%.
Credit Performance and Portfolio Resilience
Total portfolio 90+ days delinquency was 2.18% at quarter-end, down 2 bps QoQ and down 25 bps YoY; management emphasized improved credit quality, conservative LTVs and outperformance vs. broader market.
Capital & Liquidity Flexibility
Ended quarter with >$41.0M cash, undrawn loan financing capacity of ~ $1.0B, a recourse debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x, new warehouse credit facility and completed second issuance of senior unsecured notes quickly deployed into accretive assets.
Shareholder Returns
Declared a $0.32 per share common dividend payable 02/27/2026 (record date 02/20/2026).
Negative Updates
Distributable Earnings vs GAAP Discrepancy from Unrealized Gains
Full-year distributable earnings were $14.6M versus GAAP net income of $44.0M; difference driven primarily by removal of $28.6M of unrealized net gains on securitized loan portfolio. Q4 distributable earnings were $7.3M versus GAAP Q4 net income of $11.3M after removing $8.4M of unrealized gains and adding $4.0M of unrealized losses.
Rising Prepayment Speeds
Three-month prepayment speeds for the RMBS securitized loan portfolio increased to 11.2% from 9.4% QoQ; management noted prepayments are expected to rise as rates decline and modeled historical average prepayment speeds of 20%–30% which could pressure returns if realized.
Market Volatility and Securitization Spread Widening
Management noted pockets of market volatility in early 2026 with securitization spreads widening after printing deals around ~105–110 bps; such spread widening could compress IRRs and affect pricing dynamics.
Competitive Pressure in Non‑QM Origination
Increased entrant activity making the non‑QM market more competitive and driving pressure on pricing; management emphasized focus on quality over scale to avoid IRR compression.
Small QoQ Decline in Economic Book Value
GAAP book value per share rose 1.3% QoQ to $10.74, but economic book value (which fair values non‑recourse securitization obligations) fell 0.2% QoQ to $12.70, reflecting normalization in legacy valuations.
Isolated Unrealized Losses
Q4 included ~$4.0M of unrealized losses from residential loans and hedge portfolios which offset some unrealized gains in securitized assets.
Company Guidance
Management guided that they expect net interest income to continue growing from 2025 levels (full-year interest income $143.7M, NII $41.1M, +30% and +11% YoY) while maintaining similar operating expense levels (FY operating expenses $16.4M, down ~15.5% YoY; Q4 operating expenses $5.2M, ex non-cash/securitization $3.0M), prudently managing recourse leverage (recourse debt-to-equity ~1.4x) and liquidity (undrawn loan financing capacity ≈ $1.0B) and sustaining disciplined securitization activity (targeting ~4 securitizations/year; $704M securitized in 2025, contributed $274.3M in Q4; participated in a $281.4M HELOC deal contributing $58.6M and expects roughly two HELOC participations/year), while noting book value is modestly higher quarter-to-date from $10.74 GAAP BV/share (economic BV $12.70) and reaffirming capital recycling and purchase capacity (2025 purchases $861.8M at a 7.79% weighted average coupon, 65.4% WACLT, avg FICO 756) as they model prepayment speeds long-term at 20–30% despite current 3‑month speeds of 11.2% and declared a $0.32/share dividend.Angel Oak Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability is solid (TTM net income $17.7M; ~41% net margin), and leverage has improved (TTM debt-to-equity ~1.63x vs. ~6.46x–7.62x in 2023–2024). However, TTM revenue is sharply lower (~-28.5% growth) and operating cash flow is deeply negative (TTM about -$379.5M) with significant volatility, which raises earnings-quality and balance-sheet sensitivity concerns for a mortgage REIT.Income Statement
Profitability is a clear positive, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net income of $17.7M and strong net margins (TTM ~41% following similarly strong annual margins in 2023–2024). However, the revenue line is volatile: TTM revenue is down sharply (TTM revenue growth ~-28.5%), and results have shown meaningful swings over the cycle (including a very weak 2022). Overall, earnings strength is present, but top-line momentum and stability are inconsistent.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains a key constraint. While TTM debt-to-equity improved to ~1.63x versus very high leverage in 2023–2024 (~6.46x–7.62x), the capital structure has historically carried elevated debt relative to equity for a mortgage REIT. Returns on equity are positive in recent periods (TTM ~7.1%; 2023–2024 ~12–13%), but the prior drawdown in 2022 underscores balance-sheet sensitivity to market conditions. Net: improving leverage lately, but risk profile remains higher than average.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the weakest area. Operating cash flow is negative in TTM (about -$379.5M) and was also negative in 2024 and 2022, with very large swings year to year (notably deeply negative in 2021). While 2023 showed strong positive operating cash flow, the recent reversion to materially negative cash flow raises questions about earnings quality and working-capital/portfolio dynamics. Overall, cash flow volatility and the current negative run-rate are meaningful risks.25
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 57.49M | 51.46M | 54.86M | -157.95M | 41.76M | 10.38M |
| Gross Profit | 52.21M | 51.46M | 54.86M | -157.95M | 41.76M | 4.08M |
| EBITDA | 43.31M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 17.65M | 28.75M | 33.71M | -187.83M | 21.11M | 736.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.64B | 2.27B | 2.31B | 2.95B | 2.58B | 509.66M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.60M | 40.76M | 41.63M | 29.27M | 40.80M | 43.57M |
| Total Debt | 431.40M | 1.77B | 1.46B | 1.64B | 1.47B | 260.39M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.37B | 2.03B | 2.05B | 2.71B | 2.09B | 261.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 264.17M | 238.97M | 256.11M | 236.48M | 491.39M | 248.31M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -379.51M | -221.43M | 306.40M | -331.13M | -1.57B | 34.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -379.51M | -221.43M | 306.40M | -331.13M | -1.57B | 34.41M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 55.68M | 120.84M | -194.11M | 664.33M | -460.48M | -52.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 332.52M | 98.99M | -107.66M | -345.65M | 2.03B | 54.80M |
Angel Oak Mortgage Technical Analysis
Positive
9.12
Price Trends
8.56
Positive
8.50
Positive
8.56
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.03
Positive
49.94
Neutral
29.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AOMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.59, above the 50-day MA of 8.56, and above the 200-day MA of 8.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AOMR.
Angel Oak Mortgage Risk Analysis
Angel Oak Mortgage disclosed 112 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Angel Oak Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Angel Oak Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $257.14M | 4.92 | 19.70% | 14.36% | 15.51% | 210.91% | |
74 Outperform | $256.13M | 7.18 | 11.82% | 15.86% | -1.57% | -15.32% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | $193.43M | 8.56 | 5.72% | 13.82% | -18.06% | -18.94% | |
57 Neutral | $256.74M | 9.01 | 8.82% | 9.61% | 20.44% | -59.21% | |
51 Neutral | $213.76M | 4.77 | 17.38% | 14.83% | 65.86% | -74.61% | |
51 Neutral | $277.95M | -247.29 | -0.17% | 13.75% | -30.60% | 87.95% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
8.58
0.26
3.15%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
5.02
0.75
17.51%
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
8.56
-2.41
-21.95%
MITT
AG Mortgage
8.09
1.01
14.20%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
14.51
-0.03
-0.21%
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
12.15
-2.53
-17.23%
Angel Oak Mortgage Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Angel Oak Mortgage Announces Q3 2025 Results Release
Neutral
Oct 23, 2025
On October 23, 2025, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. announced the release date for its third quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for November 6, 2025, before the market opens. A conference call will follow at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, accessible via a webcast on the company’s website. This announcement is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with its stakeholders and provide insights into its financial performance.
The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Angel Oak Mortgage Reduces Loan Interest Rates
Positive
Oct 15, 2025
On October 10, 2025, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. and its subsidiaries amended their loan financing facility with Global Investment Bank 2, reducing the interest rate pricing spread from a range of 1.75% to 3.35% to a new range of 1.65% to 2.40%. This adjustment, based on factors such as collateral type and loan status, could potentially lower financing costs and improve the company’s competitive positioning in the market.
The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.