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Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR)
NYSE:AOMR

Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR) AI Stock Analysis

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Angel Oak Mortgage

(NYSE:AOMR)

Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-0.73%Downside)
Angel Oak Mortgage's overall score is primarily impacted by its financial instability and high leverage, which are concerning despite positive corporate events and earnings call highlights. The valuation suggests potential upside due to low P/E and high dividend yield, but risk remains high.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Economic NAV is up approximately 6%, indicating limited downside at its current valuation near 0.70x NAV.
Investment Growth
Management sees a healthy new investment pipeline for non-QM loan acquisitions.
Market Position
AOMR is attractively positioned as a leader in the non-QM space, which is expected to experience exponential growth over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Book Value
GAAP book value decreased by 10% quarter-over-quarter due to spread widening.
Earnings
Distributable EPS of $0.17 is below the estimate of $0.27 due to realized losses on hedges.

Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Angel Oak Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAngel Oak Mortgage, Inc., a real estate finance company, focuses on acquiring and investing in first lien non- qualified mortgage loans and other mortgage-related assets in the United States mortgage market. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAngel Oak Mortgage generates revenue through the interest income earned from its mortgage loan portfolio. The company acquires mortgage loans at a discount and earns a yield spread between the interest paid by borrowers and the cost of funds. Additionally, AOMR benefits from securitization of mortgage loans, which involves packaging loans into securities and selling them to investors, thereby generating income from the sale as well as ongoing servicing fees. Strategic partnerships with mortgage originators and financial institutions enhance its ability to source a diverse range of mortgage loans, contributing to its revenue streams.

Angel Oak Mortgage Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.57%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance with significant growth in net interest income and reduced operating expenses. Strategic securitizations were executed successfully, contributing to increased book value. Despite some challenges such as increased loan delinquencies and market volatility impacting securitization yields, the overall outlook remains positive due to effective capital management and strategic growth initiatives.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Interest Income Growth
Net interest income saw an 18% growth compared to the first quarter of 2024 and over 2% growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
Operating Expense Reduction
Operating expenses (excluding certain costs) were reduced by 29% compared to the first quarter of 2024 and 10% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
Successful Securitization Post-Quarter
Completed the AOMT 2025-4 securitization shortly after quarter-end, contributing $284.3 million in loans, which paid down $242.4 million of warehouse debt and released $24.7 million of cash.
Book Value Increase
GAAP book value increased by 5.2% to $10.70 as of March 31, 2025, from $10.17 as of December 31, 2024.
Loan Portfolio Performance
First quarter loan purchases totaled $259 million with a weighted average coupon of 7.67%, demonstrating strong origination capabilities.
Negative Updates
Unrealized Gains vs. Distributable Earnings
GAAP net income was $20.5 million, while distributable earnings were only $4.1 million, highlighting the difference driven by unrealized gains.
Increased Loan Delinquencies
Portfolio weighted average of loans 90-plus days delinquent was 2.79%, an increase of 35 basis points from the first quarter of 2024.
Market Volatility Impact on Securitization
Volatility affected the spreads on securitizations, resulting in a slightly lower yield on the AOMT 2025-4 securitization compared to expectations.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT reported significant financial performance metrics, including an 18% growth in net interest income compared to the first quarter of 2024, and a 2% increase from the previous quarter. Operating expenses, excluding certain costs, were $1.1 million, marking a 29% decrease from the same period last year. The company achieved a GAAP net income of $20.5 million or $0.87 per diluted share, and distributable earnings of $4.1 million or $0.17 per share. Interest income was reported at $32.9 million, with a 30% year-over-year improvement. The company completed a securitization after the quarter's end, contributing $284.3 million in loans with a weighted average coupon of 7.5%. The securitization helped lower the recourse debt-to-equity ratio to approximately 1.3 times. The book value per share increased by 5.2% to $10.70, with economic book value rising to $13.41 per share. The company declared a $0.32 per share dividend, reflecting ongoing growth in its earnings power and strategic capital deployment.

Angel Oak Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Angel Oak Mortgage's financials show significant volatility and instability. Despite some positive indicators like improved net profit margins, the high leverage and negative cash flows pose considerable financial risk.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Angel Oak Mortgage's income statement shows significant volatility. The company experienced negative revenue growth in 2022 followed by a sharp recovery in 2023, but then zero revenue in 2024, indicating instability in revenue generation. The net profit margin improved in 2024, which is a positive sign, but overall, the margins have been inconsistent over the years.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating potential risk due to substantial leverage. Equity has decreased over time, reducing the equity ratio. However, the company has maintained a reasonable level of cash and short-term investments, which provides some liquidity cushion.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Angel Oak Mortgage's cash flow statement exhibits significant negative operating and free cash flows in recent years, reflecting potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, showing inefficiencies in converting income into cash. Despite past positive free cash flow, recent trends are concerning.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue93.71M51.46M54.86M-157.95M41.76M10.38M
Gross Profit89.31M51.46M42.49M-162.42M36.38M2.48M
EBITDA112.08M105.51M102.01M-128.27M34.19M8.23M
Net Income36.41M28.75M33.71M-187.83M21.11M736.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.68B2.27B2.31B2.95B2.58B509.66M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments38.70M40.76M41.63M29.27M40.80M43.57M
Total Debt1.96B1.77B1.65B1.64B1.47B81.91M
Total Liabilities2.43B2.03B2.05B2.71B2.09B261.35M
Stockholders Equity251.48M238.97M256.11M236.48M491.39M248.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-463.40M-221.43M306.40M-331.13M-1.57B34.41M
Operating Cash Flow-427.76M-221.43M306.40M-331.13M-1.57B34.41M
Investing Cash Flow15.53M120.84M-194.11M664.33M-460.48M-52.44M
Financing Cash Flow414.86M98.99M-107.66M-345.65M2.03B54.80M

Angel Oak Mortgage Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.57
Price Trends
50DMA
9.31
Positive
100DMA
9.13
Positive
200DMA
9.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Negative
RSI
63.49
Neutral
STOCH
68.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AOMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.30, above the 50-day MA of 9.31, and above the 200-day MA of 9.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AOMR.

Angel Oak Mortgage Risk Analysis

Angel Oak Mortgage disclosed 112 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Angel Oak Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Angel Oak Mortgage Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$225.24M8.558.55%11.07%36.70%-48.88%
66
Neutral
£962.26M14.542.04%234.64%11.04%38.13%
66
Neutral
$184.98M10.806.27%11.28%-11.97%-27.40%
61
Neutral
$241.80M6.0319.15%14.65%11.78%65.73%
57
Neutral
$224.90M6.3614.14%13.38%54.49%-17.44%
52
Neutral
$216.34M20.12-2.82%16.67%440.31%21.03%
48
Neutral
$258.53M-2.33%12.77%-52.08%10.36%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
9.64
-0.72
-6.95%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.74
-1.28
-21.26%
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
12.57
1.21
10.65%
MITT
AG Mortgage
7.65
1.46
23.59%
EARN
Ellington Residential Mortgage
5.83
-0.19
-3.16%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
13.85
1.82
15.13%

Angel Oak Mortgage Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Angel Oak Mortgage Extends Loan Facility with Bank
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

On June 24, 2025, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. and its subsidiaries renewed their loan financing facility with Multinational Bank 1, extending the expiration date from September 25, 2025, to December 25, 2025. This renewal, in line with the original Master Repurchase Agreement from April 13, 2022, ensures continued financial support and stability for the company, potentially impacting its operations and stakeholder confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Angel Oak Mortgage Appoints New Director Amid Changes
Neutral
Jun 17, 2025

On June 17, 2025, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. appointed Tian ce (David) Zhong as a new director following the resignation of a previous board member. This appointment is part of a shareholder rights agreement with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, allowing them to designate a nominee to the board. Mr. Zhong, who is not considered independent by NYSE standards, will not receive compensation for his role and has not been assigned to any board committees. This move reflects the company’s ongoing collaboration with significant investors to maintain strategic governance and oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Angel Oak Mortgage Director Resigns, Replacement Announced
Neutral
Jun 4, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Edward M. Cummings announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc., effective June 10, 2025. His resignation is not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies. The vacancy on the Board will be filled by a nominee designated by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, as per a shareholder rights agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Angel Oak Mortgage Closes $40M Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. successfully closed a public offering of $40 million in senior notes due in 2030, with a 9.750% interest rate. The notes are guaranteed by Angel Oak Mortgage Operating Partnership, LP, and are expected to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘AOMD’. This move is expected to strengthen the company’s financial position and potentially enhance its market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Angel Oak Mortgage Announces $40M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 16, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. announced an underwritten public offering of $40 million in 9.750% Senior Notes due 2030, guaranteed by Angel Oak Mortgage Operating Partnership, LP. The company plans to use the estimated net proceeds of $38.2 million for general corporate purposes, including acquiring non-qualified residential mortgage loans, enhancing its market positioning and operational strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder Meetings
Angel Oak Mortgage Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 14, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders to elect eight directors and ratify KPMG LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025. The meeting saw the participation of 15,112,985 shares, establishing a quorum. The stockholders approved the election of directors and ratified KPMG LLP’s appointment, reflecting continued confidence in the company’s governance and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (AOMR) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Angel Oak Mortgage stock, see the AOMR Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Angel Oak Mortgage to Announce Q1 2025 Results
Neutral
Apr 22, 2025

On April 21, 2025, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. announced the release of its first quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for May 5, 2025, before the market opens. The company will hold a conference call on the same day at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the results, with a webcast available on its website. This announcement is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to keep stakeholders informed about its financial performance and strategic direction.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 26, 2025