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Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR)
NYSE:AOMR
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Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR) AI Stock Analysis

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AOMR

Angel Oak Mortgage

(NYSE:AOMR)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
â–²(7.95% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (TTM operating cash flow/free cash flow at -$129.8M) and decelerating fundamentals versus 2025, despite balance-sheet deleveraging. Support comes from an attractive valuation profile (P/E ~13 and ~14.46% dividend yield) and a largely positive earnings-call outlook featuring improved financing economics, liquidity, and securitization execution. Technicals are neutral overall, with modest longer-term support but softer near-term price action.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet deleveraging
Material reduction in absolute debt and improved debt-to-equity materially lowers funding risk and interest burden versus prior years. This strengthens structural flexibility to originate, warehouse, and securitize loans, improving resilience to funding shocks and supporting recurring capital recycling.
Negative Factors
Negative operating cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow weakens liquidity and raises dependence on warehouse lines and securitization windows. Persisting cash outflows constrain flexibility for dividends, buybacks or growth, and increase refinancing risk if capital markets tighten over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet deleveraging
Material reduction in absolute debt and improved debt-to-equity materially lowers funding risk and interest burden versus prior years. This strengthens structural flexibility to originate, warehouse, and securitize loans, improving resilience to funding shocks and supporting recurring capital recycling.
Read all positive factors

Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Angel Oak Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. (AOMR) operates as a real estate finance firm, primarily acquiring and investing in first-lien non-qualified mortgage (non-QM) loans and various other mortgage-backed assets across the United States. The company holds Real...
How the Company Makes Money
AOMR primarily makes money by originating residential mortgage loans and then monetizing those loans through sale into the secondary market and/or through securitization structures, earning gain-on-sale and related transaction economics when loans...

Angel Oak Mortgage Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: meaningful year-over-year increases in GAAP net income and distributable earnings, active loan deployment with strong underwriting metrics, successful post-quarter securitizations, strategic capital actions (bond monetization, $15M buyback, 35 bps warehouse spread reduction), and solid liquidity that reduces pro forma leverage. Offsetting items include ~ $6M of unrealized mark-to-market losses (loan and derivative-driven), a modest QoQ decline in book value, rising prepayment speeds and a small uptick in 90+ day delinquencies, plus continued macro and consumer credit uncertainty. Overall, management emphasized disciplined, value-driven capital deployment and expects ongoing securitization activity and improved financing costs to support returns, suggesting the positives materially outweigh the near-term mark-to-market and macro-related headwinds.
Positive Updates
Strong GAAP Net Income Improvement
GAAP net income of $3.4M ($0.14 per diluted share) in Q2 2026 versus $0.8M ($0.03) in Q2 2025, representing ~325% year-over-year increase in net income and a large improvement in per-share EPS.
Negative Updates
Unrealized Mark-to-Market Losses
Unrealized valuation decreases totaled approximately $3.6M in securitized and residential loans plus $2.4M in derivatives (total ~ $6.0M), which contributed to a gap between GAAP net income and distributable earnings and pressure on quarter valuations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong GAAP Net Income Improvement
GAAP net income of $3.4M ($0.14 per diluted share) in Q2 2026 versus $0.8M ($0.03) in Q2 2025, representing ~325% year-over-year increase in net income and a large improvement in per-share EPS.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized a disciplined, value‑driven approach: target roughly one securitization per quarter (≈4/year) with a likely second HELOC securitization this year and the potential for a second non‑QM deal in Q3, a strategic HELOC allocation of ~10–15% of the portfolio, and continued selective origination (Q2 loan purchases $204M; weighted average coupon 7.34%; WA CLTV 70.5%; WA FICO 759). They expect to maintain conservative leverage and liquidity (cash $48.6M; undrawn financing capacity ≈$900M), with recourse debt‑to‑equity near 2.3x pre‑securitization and ~1x after the recent AOMT 2026‑3 and AOMT 2026‑HB1 deals, keep operating expenses broadly stable (~$3.6M GAAP; $3.2M ex‑stock comp), and realize improved economics from recent actions (warehouse spread reduced 35 bps; $15M share repurchase), model returns of ~13–14% in the warehouse phase and ~15–20% post‑securitization, and assume long‑run prepayment speeds of 20–30% (current 3‑month non‑QM RMBS prepay 13.6%), while expecting book value to remain relatively flat (GAAP BV $10.13; economic BV $12.24).

Angel Oak Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fundamentals are mixed: profitability remains positive but has weakened versus 2025 (TTM net income $16.1M and ~15.6% margin vs. 2025 $44.0M and ~33.2%), and revenue is contracting (TTM growth -7.45%). The balance sheet shows meaningful deleveraging (debt down to ~$281.5M TTM) but leverage is still moderate (debt-to-equity ~1.10) and ROE has cooled (~6.2% TTM). The largest concern is cash generation: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are both -$129.8M, a sharp reversal from positive 2025 levels.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue124.19M132.79M51.46M54.86M-157.95M41.76M
Gross Profit65.39M119.61M51.46M54.86M-157.95M41.76M
EBITDA82.01M151.64M3.26M0.000.000.00
Net Income18.70M44.02M28.75M33.71M-187.83M21.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.99B2.75B2.27B2.31B2.95B2.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments48.63M41.62M40.76M41.63M29.27M40.80M
Total Debt454.08M2.28B1.77B1.46B1.64B1.47B
Total Liabilities2.76B2.48B2.03B2.05B2.71B2.09B
Stockholders Equity234.87M267.52M238.97M256.11M236.48M491.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-369.57M18.59M-221.43M306.40M-331.13M-1.57B
Operating Cash Flow-369.57M18.59M-221.43M306.40M-331.13M-1.57B
Investing Cash Flow19.84M-411.88M120.84M-194.11M664.33M-460.48M
Financing Cash Flow349.01M395.68M98.99M-107.66M-345.65M2.03B

Angel Oak Mortgage Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price8.80
Price Trends
50DMA
8.72
Positive
100DMA
8.50
Positive
200DMA
8.34
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Positive
RSI
50.06
Neutral
STOCH
60.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AOMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.95, above the 50-day MA of 8.72, and above the 200-day MA of 8.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AOMR.

Angel Oak Mortgage Risk Analysis

Angel Oak Mortgage disclosed 110 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Angel Oak Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Angel Oak Mortgage Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
$208.03M6.6810.01%18.49%1.82%-24.02%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
64
Neutral
$170.83M11.273.78%14.13%-2.38%-35.43%
64
Neutral
$319.66M4.2617.22%11.91%-1.80%39.83%
61
Neutral
$220.49M13.007.31%14.55%31.73%-55.72%
55
Neutral
$221.67M17.276.11%12.72%15.52%-54.74%
50
Neutral
$236.35M-11.99-0.88%12.93%-35.42%-46.68%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
8.88
1.12
14.36%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.71
0.79
20.31%
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
7.72
-1.33
-14.65%
MITT
AG Mortgage
6.98
0.45
6.84%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
17.59
5.21
42.08%
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
10.09
-1.51
-12.98%

Angel Oak Mortgage Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Angel Oak Mortgage Sets Date for Q2 2026 Results
Neutral
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. announced it would release its second quarter 2026 financial results before the market opens on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. The company scheduled a webcast and conference call for that morning at 8:30 a...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Angel Oak Mortgage Extends Loan Facility, Cuts Rates
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. and two subsidiaries extended their loan financing facility with a major multinational bank, pushing the facility’s maturity from June 25, 2026 to September 25, 2026 under a rolling three&#8209...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock Buyback
Angel Oak Mortgage Restructures Governance with Share Repurchase
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. agreed with its external manager and Xylem Finance LLC to repurchase Xylem’s holdings of common stock for an aggregate $15 million, at a price based on a 10-day volume-weighted average less a 3%...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Angel Oak Mortgage Stockholders Approve 2026 Governance Items
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where investors elected eight directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting and confirmed that a quorum was present with more than 21 million shares re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 04, 2026