AG Mortgage (MITT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $279.03M
• Dividend Yield: 9.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 186.20K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 20.44%
• EPS Growth: -59.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 31,744,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 171,141
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 186,197
• PEG Ratio: -0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 31.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 117.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 117.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $9.50
• Price Target Upside: 7.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(1.58% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—especially very high leverage and declining margins—despite stable cash generation. Offsetting this, technicals are moderately constructive and valuation is attractive (low P/E and high yield). Recent earnings updates were net positive (higher book value and EAD), but dilution and legacy CRE loan headwinds temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Investment Portfolio Growth

The significant growth in the investment portfolio indicates a strong strategic expansion, enhancing revenue potential and market presence.

Arc Home Contribution

Arc Home's contribution to earnings and its profitability growth highlight a successful acquisition strategy, boosting long-term earnings potential.

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth, even modest, indicates resilience and potential for sustained financial performance in a challenging market.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, especially in volatile markets, potentially impacting the company's ability to manage economic downturns.

Declining Profit Margins

Declining profit margins suggest challenges in cost management and pricing power, which could affect long-term profitability.

Legacy Loan Challenges

Issues with legacy loans can hinder capital efficiency and delay strategic investments, impacting future growth opportunities.

AG Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. operates as a residential mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. Its investment portfolio comprises residential investments, including non-qualifying mortgages loans, government-sponsored entity non-owner occupied loans, re/non-performing loans, land related financing, and agency residential mortgage-backed securities; and commercial investments. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

AG Mortgage generates revenue primarily through interest income derived from its investments in mortgage-backed securities. These securities can include both agency MBS, which are backed by government-sponsored entities, and non-agency MBS, which are not. Additionally, the company may earn income from the net interest margin between the interest earned on its mortgage assets and the cost of funds used to finance these investments. MITT may also benefit from capital appreciation of its securities, as well as potential fees associated with asset management and servicing. Key partnerships with financial institutions and mortgage originators can enhance its access to investment opportunities and financing options, further contributing to its revenue streams.

AG Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AG Mortgage's financial statements present a mixed picture. While there is some revenue growth and strong EBIT margins, declining profit margins and high leverage are concerning. The balance sheet shows significant reliance on debt, which could pose risks in a volatile market. Cash flow generation is stable but not robust, indicating potential challenges in sustaining growth. Overall, the company needs to address its leverage and improve cash flow efficiency to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

AG Mortgage's income statement shows mixed results. The TTM data indicates a modest revenue growth rate of 5.43%, but the gross profit margin has decreased from 94.90% in 2024 to 74.55% in the TTM period. The net profit margin has also declined from 13.49% to 10.94%. Despite these declines, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 93.63%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the volatility in revenue growth and declining margins suggest potential challenges in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio increasing to 14.94 in the TTM period, up from 11.65 in 2024. This high leverage poses a risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment. The return on equity has decreased slightly to 9.10% from 10.26%, indicating reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio remains low, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing, which could impact financial stability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a slight improvement in free cash flow growth at 5.40% in the TTM period, compared to 0.98% in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.07, suggesting that cash generation from operations is not keeping pace with reported earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 1.0, indicating that the company is generating sufficient cash to cover its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	74.61M	75.32M	54.92M	-7.41M	96.18M	-367.89M
Gross Profit	74.61M	75.32M	54.92M	-7.41M	96.18M	-370.11M
EBITDA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	49.66M	55.74M	53.78M	-53.10M	104.19M	-420.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.98B	6.91B	6.13B	4.37B	3.36B	1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	59.00M	118.87M	111.53M	84.62M	68.31M	47.93M
Total Debt	8.36B	6.33B	5.56B	3.88B	2.78B	919.27M
Total Liabilities	8.42B	6.37B	5.60B	3.91B	2.79B	990.34M
Stockholders Equity	559.84M	543.42M	528.37M	462.80M	570.38M	409.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	56.55M	55.84M	28.13M	22.52M	26.30M	4.16M
Operating Cash Flow	56.55M	55.84M	28.13M	22.52M	26.30M	4.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.03B	-713.13M	-433.50M	-1.49B	-1.90B	2.19B
Financing Cash Flow	1.94B	670.29M	432.14M	1.47B	1.91B	-2.26B

AG Mortgage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MITT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.70, above the 50-day MA of 8.22, and above the 200-day MA of 7.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MITT.

AG Mortgage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NREF	74 Outperform	$251.47M	4.97	27.37%	14.36%	15.51%	210.91%
REFI	74 Outperform	$260.91M	7.32	11.82%	15.86%	-1.57%	-15.32%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
MITT	55 Neutral	$279.03M	9.45	9.03%	9.61%	20.44%	-59.21%
ACRE	53 Neutral	$275.68M	-34.13	-1.42%	13.75%	-30.60%	87.95%
AOMR	51 Neutral	$221.73M	12.45	6.67%	14.83%	65.86%	-74.61%
ACR	47 Neutral	$150.96M	21.26	6.58%	―	-18.37%	18.80%

AG Mortgage Corporate Events

AG Mortgage Announces Name Change to TPG Mortgage

On December 15, 2025, AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. announced a name change to TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc., effective December 16, 2025, to align with TPG’s investment capabilities and operational excellence. The company’s shares will continue trading under the ticker symbol ‘MITT’ on the NYSE, with the name change taking effect on December 26, 2025. Additionally, the company declared a 9.5% increase in its quarterly common stock dividend to $0.23 per share, reflecting the growing earnings power of its investment portfolio and commitment to maximizing long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (MITT) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AG Mortgage stock, see the MITT Stock Forecast page.