AG Mortgage (MITT) AI Stock Analysis

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AG Mortgage

(NYSE:MITT)

68Neutral

AG Mortgage Investment Trust demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability, supported by disciplined debt management. Despite negative technical trends, the stock's low valuation and high dividend yield offer significant appeal. Positive earnings call results further enhance the outlook, although attention to liquidity and operational efficiency is advised.

AG Mortgage (MITT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$172.02M

Dividend Yield11.74%

Average Volume (3M)281.18K

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7

Beta (1Y)0.82

Revenue Growth50.41%

EPS Growth-21.02%

CountryUS

EmployeesN/A

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength83

IndustryREIT - Mortgage

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.18

Shares Outstanding29,658,830

10 Day Avg. Volume339,317

30 Day Avg. Volume281,181

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)2.69

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)3.60

P/FCF Ratio0.40

Enterprise Value/Market Cap39.01

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit101.84

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$8.38

Price Target Upside28.33% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

AG Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. operates as a residential mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. Its investment portfolio comprises residential investments, including non-qualifying mortgages loans, government-sponsored entity non-owner occupied loans, re/non-performing loans, land related financing, and agency residential mortgage-backed securities; and commercial investments. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes MoneyAG Mortgage makes money primarily through the acquisition and management of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), credit investments such as non-agency RMBS, asset-backed securities (ABS), and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). The company earns revenue from the interest income on these securities, as well as from the appreciation in the value of its asset holdings. Additionally, AG Mortgage generates income through its strategic partnerships and financing arrangements, which allow it to leverage its portfolio to maximize returns. The company also benefits from its expertise in asset management, which helps optimize the performance and risk profile of its investments.

AG Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AG Mortgage shows promising revenue growth and profitability, with improved debt management enhancing financial stability. Cash flow generation is strong, but high capital expenditures warrant attention. While the company demonstrates resilience, careful monitoring of operational efficiency and liquidity is recommended to mitigate potential risks.

Income Statement

Positive

AG Mortgage has demonstrated significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2023, with total revenue increasing from $218,000 to $63.7 million. The net profit margin for 2023 is high at approximately 84.6%, indicating strong profitability. However, the EBIT margin is unavailable for 2023, and the EBITDA margin has shown volatility in previous years, reflecting potential instability in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved significantly from 2022 to 2023 as total debt was reduced, enhancing financial stability. The equity ratio is relatively stable, providing a solid foundation. However, the return on equity (ROE) has shown fluctuations due to varying net income, which may pose risks to sustained shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Positive

AG Mortgage's operating cash flow has improved significantly in 2023, supporting a strong free cash flow position. The company exhibits a high free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the investing cash flow is negative, suggesting high capital expenditures that may impact future liquidity.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
65.89M	63.66M	218.00K	99.80M	-390.36M
	Gross Profit
65.89M	46.14M	-17.08M	86.44M	-795.22M
	EBIT
-9.43M	37.51M	47.47M	104.19M	-420.92M
	EBITDA
0.00	248.56M	52.94M	0.00	0.00
	Net Income Common Stockholders
55.74M	53.78M	-161.76M	104.19M	-420.92M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
118.66M	111.53M	155.69M	68.08M	47.93M
	Total Assets
6.91B	6.13B	4.37B	3.36B	1.40B
	Total Debt
95.72M	5.56B	3.88B	2.78B	418.29M
	Net Debt
-22.94M	5.45B	3.80B	2.71B	370.37M
	Total Liabilities
6.37B	5.60B	3.91B	2.78B	990.34M
	Stockholders Equity
543.42M	528.37M	462.80M	570.38M	409.70M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
55.84M	28.13M	22.52M	26.30M	4.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
55.84M	28.13M	22.52M	26.30M	4.16M
	Investing Cash Flow
-713.13M	-433.50M	-1.49B	-1.90B	2.19B
	Financing Cash Flow
670.29M	432.14M	1.47B	1.91B	-2.26B

AG Mortgage Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price6.53

Price Trends

50DMA

6.93

Negative

100DMA

6.75

Negative

200DMA

6.75

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.14

Negative

RSI

49.44

Neutral

STOCH

82.76

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MITT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.34, below the 50-day MA of 6.93, and below the 200-day MA of 6.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MITT.

AG Mortgage Risk Analysis

AG Mortgage disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AG Mortgage reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

AG Mortgage Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LFT	69 Neutral	$138.10M	7.71	9.47%	12.03%	11.76%	19.50%
MITT	68 Neutral	$172.02M	4.70	10.40%	11.74%	50.41%	-21.02%
SEVN	66 Neutral	$177.83M	10.38	6.27%	11.81%	-11.97%	-27.40%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.73B	11.44	0.07%	8661.49%	5.94%	-15.68%
AOMR	58 Neutral	$222.08M	8.06	11.61%	13.36%	73.21%	-13.73%
EARN	52 Neutral	$205.07M	19.55	3.99%	17.11%	440.31%	21.03%
ACRE	48 Neutral	$195.29M	―	-6.00%	22.39%	-52.08%	10.36%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MITT

AG Mortgage

6.53

1.36

26.31%

ACRE

Ares Commercial

4.07

-1.96

-32.50%

SEVN

Seven Hills Realty Trust

11.93

0.40

3.47%

EARN

Ellington Residential Mortgage

5.46

-0.42

-7.14%

LFT

Lument Finance Trust

2.66

0.74

38.54%

AOMR

Angel Oak Mortgage

9.45

-0.43

-4.35%

AG Mortgage Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: -11.40%|

Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with significant achievements in book value increase, economic return on equity, and successful acquisition results. However, some concerns remain with the flat book value in January and previous losses contributed by Arc Home. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Increase in Book Value

The book value increased by 0.6% from $10.58 to $10.64 during the fourth quarter, with an annual increase of 4.3%.

Economic Return on Equity

AG Mortgage Investment Trust delivered an 11.7% economic return on equity for shareholders in 2024.

Dividend Increase

The quarterly dividend was increased by 5.6% earlier in the year.

Successful WMC Acquisition

The acquisition of WMC increased the market cap by over 45% and resulted in a total stockholder return of more than 15%.

Arc Home Profitability

Arc Home achieved profitability in December and January after investments in new leadership positions.

Negative Updates

Flat Book Value in January

The book value remained flat for the month of January, indicating potential challenges.

Arc Home's Previous Losses

Arc Home contributed a loss of $0.02 to earnings available for distribution over the past quarters.

Company Guidance

During the AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, management provided several key financial metrics, demonstrating the company's robust performance amid challenging market conditions. For the fourth quarter, the company reported an increase in book value by 0.6%, moving from $10.58 to $10.64, and delivered a 2.4% economic return on equity. For the full year 2024, the quarterly dividend was increased by 5.6%, contributing to an annual economic return on equity of 11.7%. The economic leverage ratio was maintained at 1.4 turns, down from 2.7 turns when the CEO took over in October 2022, showcasing disciplined financial management. Additionally, the successful acquisition of WMC led to a more than 45% increase in market cap and a 15% total stockholder return since the transaction, highlighting the company's strategic growth initiatives.

AG Mortgage Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing

AG Mortgage Updates Equity Distribution Agreements

Neutral

Nov 6, 2024

AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. has entered into new Equity Distribution Agreements with several sales agents to potentially offer up to $75 million in common stock. The proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, including acquiring residential investments. Sales can occur through market offerings on the NYSE and compensate agents with up to 2% of the gross sales price. The company also terminated agreements with previous sales agents, effective November 6, 2024.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.