AG Mortgage (MITT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $256.74M
• Dividend Yield: 9.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 216.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 20.44%
• EPS Growth: -59.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 31,735,456
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 291,437
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 216,073
• PEG Ratio: -0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.56
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 32.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 17.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.19
• 1Y Price Target: $9.31
• Price Target Upside: 15.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $95.13M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(5.07% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is held back mainly by high balance-sheet leverage and historically volatile results, alongside weak technical momentum. Offsetting these are an attractive valuation and yield, plus a positive earnings-call outlook with improving EAD/dividend coverage and a plan to redeploy capital into higher-ROE strategies.

Positive Factors

Portfolio Growth

A ~27% portfolio expansion to $8.5B demonstrates durable scale and origination capacity, improving diversification across residential mortgage assets. Larger asset base supports recurring net interest income, securitization economics, and provides a stronger platform to deploy capital into higher‑ROE strategies over the medium term.

Securitization & Capital Recycling

Proven securitization capability and $4.2B executed in 2025 enable efficient liability sourcing and capital recycling. Regularly monetizing originated loans reduces funding risk, enhances liquidity, and lets management redeploy freed equity into higher‑return assets, a structural advantage for sustaining NII and ROE.

Arc Home Turnaround

Arc Home reaching breakeven with ~10% annualized H2 ROE and $3.4B originations signals a maturing, higher‑ROE platform. As a scalable originator, Arc can supply advantaged assets and generate fee and loan economics that structurally boost earnings power and reduce reliance on volatile trading gains.

Negative Factors

Very High Leverage

Extremely elevated and rising leverage materially reduces balance‑sheet resilience: small adverse valuation moves or funding stress can erode equity quickly. High leverage limits flexibility to withstand credit cycles, constrains strategic optionality, and raises refinancing and liquidity vulnerability over the medium term.

Legacy Nonaccrual Exposure

Approximately $28M of equity trapped in nonaccrual WMC CRE assets reduces current distributable earnings and delays capital redeployment. Until resolution, this legacy exposure depresses return metrics, ties management focus to workout outcomes, and represents a lingering credit and execution risk.

Residual/IO Valuation Drag

Sensitivity of residuals/IOs to prepayments and spread moves creates structural volatility in book value and limits upside from tighter spreads. This asset class can reduce earnings predictability and cap sustainable book value gains, making long‑term earnings and dividend coverage less stable.

AG Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc operates as a residential mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. Its investment portfolio comprises residential investments, including non-qualifying mortgages loans, government-sponsored entity non-owner occupied loans, re/non-performing loans, land related financing, and agency residential mortgage-backed securities; and commercial investments. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

AG Mortgage generates revenue primarily through interest income derived from its investments in mortgage-backed securities. These securities can include both agency MBS, which are backed by government-sponsored entities, and non-agency MBS, which are not. Additionally, the company may earn income from the net interest margin between the interest earned on its mortgage assets and the cost of funds used to finance these investments. MITT may also benefit from capital appreciation of its securities, as well as potential fees associated with asset management and servicing. Key partnerships with financial institutions and mortgage originators can enhance its access to investment opportunities and financing options, further contributing to its revenue streams.

AG Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income and cash flow show a solid rebound (strong 2025 revenue growth, profitable results, and positive/ improving operating and free cash flow). However, earnings have been highly volatile over time and balance-sheet risk is elevated due to very high and rising leverage, which materially reduces financial resilience for a mortgage REIT.

Income Statement

Profitability rebounded strongly after earlier losses, with 2025 revenue surging (+162.8% YoY) and the company remaining profitable (about a 10.3% net margin). However, results have been highly volatile over time (large losses in 2020 and 2022, then sharp swings to high profitability in 2021–2024), which lowers confidence in earnings stability despite the recent improvement.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is very high and rising, with debt-to-equity increasing from ~2.2x (2020) to ~14.4x (2025). While equity has grown modestly and return on equity is positive in recent years (about 8.7% in 2025), the capital structure leaves limited cushion if asset values or funding conditions deteriorate—an important risk for a mortgage REIT.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and improving, with operating cash flow rising to ~$59.6M in 2025 and free cash flow also positive (and up ~5.3% YoY). Free cash flow matches net income in each period provided (supportive of earnings quality in this dataset). The main weakness is that operating cash flow is small relative to total debt (coverage around ~0.07), highlighting limited debt-carrying flexibility given the leverage.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	472.69M	413.19M	274.71M	256.77M	67.52M
Gross Profit	447.80M	392.14M	257.19M	239.48M	53.91M
EBITDA	476.32M	398.45M	266.28M	65.82M	131.44M
Net Income	48.67M	55.74M	53.78M	-53.10M	104.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.71B	6.91B	6.13B	4.37B	3.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	76.32M	118.87M	111.53M	84.62M	68.31M
Total Debt	8.10B	6.33B	5.56B	3.88B	2.78B
Total Liabilities	8.15B	6.37B	5.60B	3.91B	2.79B
Stockholders Equity	560.73M	543.42M	528.37M	462.80M	570.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.57M	55.84M	28.13M	22.52M	26.30M
Operating Cash Flow	59.57M	55.84M	28.13M	22.52M	26.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.67B	-713.13M	-433.50M	-1.49B	-1.90B
Financing Cash Flow	1.55B	670.29M	432.14M	1.47B	1.91B

AG Mortgage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MITT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.38, below the 50-day MA of 8.64, and above the 200-day MA of 7.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MITT.

AG Mortgage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NREF	74 Outperform	$257.14M	5.08	27.37%	14.36%	15.51%	210.91%
REFI	74 Outperform	$256.13M	7.18	11.82%	15.86%	-1.57%	-15.32%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
MITT	57 Neutral	$256.74M	9.01	8.82%	9.61%	20.44%	-59.21%
ACRE	51 Neutral	$277.95M	-247.29	-0.17%	13.75%	-30.60%	87.95%
AOMR	51 Neutral	$213.76M	4.77	17.38%	14.83%	65.86%	-74.61%
ACR	47 Neutral	$134.86M	19.29	6.58%	―	-18.37%	18.80%

AG Mortgage Corporate Events

AG Mortgage Announces Name Change to TPG Mortgage

On December 15, 2025, AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. announced a name change to TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc., effective December 16, 2025, to align with TPG’s investment capabilities and operational excellence. The company’s shares will continue trading under the ticker symbol ‘MITT’ on the NYSE, with the name change taking effect on December 26, 2025. Additionally, the company declared a 9.5% increase in its quarterly common stock dividend to $0.23 per share, reflecting the growing earnings power of its investment portfolio and commitment to maximizing long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (MITT) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AG Mortgage stock, see the MITT Stock Forecast page.