AG Mortgage (MITT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $248.46M
• Dividend Yield: 10.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 182.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.74
• Revenue Growth: 20.44%
• EPS Growth: -59.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 31,732,431
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 209,626
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 182,212
• PEG Ratio: -0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 35.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 51.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 54.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 70.28
• 1Y Price Target: $8.75
• Price Target Upside: 12.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $78.54M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(2.43% Upside)

AG Mortgage's overall stock score is driven by a combination of mixed financial performance and positive technical indicators. The company's high leverage and declining profit margins are significant concerns, but the strong technical momentum and attractive valuation metrics provide some offsetting strengths. The earnings call provided a balanced view with both growth initiatives and ongoing challenges. Investors should weigh the risks of high leverage against the potential for income from dividends and technical strength.

AG Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in and managing a diversified portfolio of residential mortgage assets. The company operates in the mortgage finance sector, specializing in acquiring, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other mortgage-related investments. MITT aims to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns to its shareholders through its investment strategies in both agency and non-agency MBS.

How the Company Makes Money

AG Mortgage generates revenue primarily through interest income derived from its investments in mortgage-backed securities. These securities can include both agency MBS, which are backed by government-sponsored entities, and non-agency MBS, which are not. Additionally, the company may earn income from the net interest margin between the interest earned on its mortgage assets and the cost of funds used to finance these investments. MITT may also benefit from capital appreciation of its securities, as well as potential fees associated with asset management and servicing. Key partnerships with financial institutions and mortgage originators can enhance its access to investment opportunities and financing options, further contributing to its revenue streams.

AG Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AG Mortgage's financial statements present a mixed picture. While there is some revenue growth and strong EBIT margins, declining profit margins and high leverage are concerning. The balance sheet shows significant reliance on debt, which could pose risks in a volatile market. Cash flow generation is stable but not robust, indicating potential challenges in sustaining growth. Overall, the company needs to address its leverage and improve cash flow efficiency to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

AG Mortgage's income statement shows mixed results. The TTM data indicates a modest revenue growth rate of 5.43%, but the gross profit margin has decreased from 94.90% in 2024 to 74.55% in the TTM period. The net profit margin has also declined from 13.49% to 10.94%. Despite these declines, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 93.63%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the volatility in revenue growth and declining margins suggest potential challenges in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio increasing to 14.94 in the TTM period, up from 11.65 in 2024. This high leverage poses a risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment. The return on equity has decreased slightly to 9.10% from 10.26%, indicating reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio remains low, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing, which could impact financial stability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a slight improvement in free cash flow growth at 5.40% in the TTM period, compared to 0.98% in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.07, suggesting that cash generation from operations is not keeping pace with reported earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 1.0, indicating that the company is generating sufficient cash to cover its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	170.47M	75.32M	54.92M	-7.41M	96.18M	-390.36M
Gross Profit	161.22M	75.32M	54.92M	-7.41M	96.18M	-193.93M
EBITDA	124.24M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-374.34M
Net Income	49.66M	55.74M	53.78M	-53.10M	104.19M	-420.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.98B	6.91B	6.13B	4.37B	3.36B	1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	76.81M	118.66M	111.53M	155.69M	68.08M	47.93M
Total Debt	8.36B	6.33B	5.56B	3.88B	2.78B	418.29M
Total Liabilities	8.42B	6.37B	5.60B	3.91B	2.79B	990.34M
Stockholders Equity	559.84M	543.42M	528.37M	462.80M	570.38M	409.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	56.55M	55.84M	28.13M	22.52M	26.30M	4.16M
Operating Cash Flow	56.55M	55.84M	28.13M	22.52M	26.30M	4.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.03B	-713.13M	-433.50M	-1.49B	-1.90B	2.19B
Financing Cash Flow	1.94B	670.29M	432.14M	1.47B	1.91B	-2.26B

AG Mortgage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MITT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.29, above the 50-day MA of 7.37, and above the 200-day MA of 6.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MITT.

AG Mortgage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
NREF	61 Neutral	$237.12M	4.68	27.24%	15.05%	48.38%	210.91%
REFI	61 Neutral	$265.34M	7.44	11.82%	16.23%	-1.57%	-15.32%
MITT	60 Neutral	$248.46M	8.42	9.03%	10.37%	20.44%	-59.21%
AOMR	55 Neutral	$224.97M	12.63	6.67%	14.13%	65.86%	-74.61%
ACR	54 Neutral	$160.21M	22.92	5.05%	―	-18.37%	18.80%
ACRE	48 Neutral	$246.97M	―	-3.30%	15.59%	-27.60%	62.75%

AG Mortgage Corporate Events

AG Mortgage Investment Trust Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. is a residential mortgage REIT focused on investing in a diversified portfolio of residential mortgage-related assets within the U.S. mortgage market, managed by AG REIT Management, LLC, a subsidiary of Angelo, Gordon & Co., L.P. In its third quarter of 2025, AG Mortgage Investment Trust reported a successful period marked by increased book value, supported dividends, and strategic growth through an expanded stake in Arc Home. The company’s core portfolio and operational efficiencies contributed to strong earnings, with Arc Home significantly enhancing Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD). Key financial highlights for the quarter included a book value of $10.46 per share, a net income of $0.47 per diluted common share, and a dividend of $0.21 per common share. The company also reported an $8.8 billion investment portfolio and $8.4 billion in financing, with a notable increase in its ownership of Arc Home to 66%. Looking forward, AG Mortgage Investment Trust remains focused on scaling its Arc Home platform, expanding product offerings, and sourcing high-quality collateral, positioning itself for continued growth and profitability in the evolving mortgage market.

AG Mortgage Investment Trust’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges

During the recent earnings call, AG Mortgage Investment Trust demonstrated a generally positive sentiment, highlighting significant achievements in increasing book value, earnings distribution, and investment portfolio growth. The company celebrated the strong contributions from Arc Home, although it acknowledged challenges with legacy WMC CRE loans and the dilution impact from the Arc Home acquisition.