AG Mortgage (MITT)
NYSE:MITT
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AG Mortgage
(NYSE:MITT)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-0.37% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/02/26
The score is primarily held back by elevated balance-sheet risk (very high debt-to-equity and weak cash-flow coverage), despite improved revenue/profitability and positive cash flow. The latest earnings call adds meaningful support due to clear operational momentum (EAD improvement, dividend growth, stable book value) and actionable capital redeployment plans, while technicals and valuation are mixed (neutral momentum and a high yield offset by a negative P/E).
Positive Factors
Scale & Securitization Capability
Rapid portfolio expansion to $8.5B combined with $4.2B of 2025 securitizations shows repeatable origination and funding execution. Scale plus proven securitization capacity diversifies funding sources, supports steady interest/fee income, and enables capital rotation into higher‑ROE strategies over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Very High Financial Leverage
Extremely elevated gearing (debt ≈ $7.7B on a ~$544M equity base) magnifies exposure to adverse rate or spread moves. High leverage constrains strategic flexibility, amplifies the impact of impairments or valuation markdowns, and increases the likelihood dependence on external funding over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Securitization Capability
Rapid portfolio expansion to $8.5B combined with $4.2B of 2025 securitizations shows repeatable origination and funding execution. Scale plus proven securitization capacity diversifies funding sources, supports steady interest/fee income, and enables capital rotation into higher‑ROE strategies over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
AG Mortgage (MITT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$247.75M
Dividend Yield9.61%
Average Volume (3M)287.65K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth15.52%
EPS Growth-54.74%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.40
Shares Outstanding31,803,474
10 Day Avg. Volume188,524
30 Day Avg. Volume287,655
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.20
Price to Book (P/B)0.47
Price to Sales (P/S)0.56
P/FCF Ratio4.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap31.88
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.17Price Target Upside14.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$89.40M
AG Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc operates as a residential mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. Its investment portfolio comprises residential investments, including non-qualifying mortgages loans, government-sponsored enti...
How the Company Makes Money
MITT primarily makes money by investing in mortgage and residential credit assets and earning income on those holdings. Key revenue and earnings drivers typically include: (1) Net interest income: MITT finances certain mortgage assets using secure...
AG Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone driven by strong execution: meaningful portfolio growth (+27% to $8.5B), active securitization ($4.2B in 2025), dividend increases (>21% YoY), stable book value (+0.2% Q4), improving EAD (Q4 $0.25; full-year $0.86, +17% YoY), and a clear turnaround and scaling at Arc Home (breakeven, 10% annualized H2 ROE, record originations). Remaining negatives are manageable legacy assets on nonaccrual (~$28M equity tied up), residual/IO mark dynamics limiting book value upside, and transaction costs. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Book Value Stability
Book value increased from $10.46 to $10.48 in Q4 (approx +0.2%), demonstrating stability while supporting return of capital to shareholders.
Negative Updates
Legacy WMC CRE Loans on Nonaccrual
Legacy WMC commercial real estate loans remain on nonaccrual/cost-recovery status with approximately $28 million of equity still tied up in these assets, limiting current earning power until resolved.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Book Value Stability
Book value increased from $10.46 to $10.48 in Q4 (approx +0.2%), demonstrating stability while supporting return of capital to shareholders.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s 2026 guidance focuses on resolving legacy WMC CRE loans in H1 2026 and quickly redeploying capital into higher‑ROE strategies, including exercising call rights to free up roughly $35M of equity (with about $28M of equity remaining in WMC CRE loans) and rotating organic capital (≈$20M cited) for a total redeployable pool near $55M; management expects many calls to occur this quarter with the remainder in Q2–Q3 and believes converting the $28M CRE equity into 15–20% ROE could be worth roughly $0.20 per share annualized. They reiterated targets to grow EAD and earnings power (Q4 EAD $0.25 vs. $0.23 prior quarter; FY2025 EAD $0.86), maintain low economic leverage (1.6 turns), and capitalize on Arc Home momentum (Arc originated $3.4B in 2025, 34% YoY lock volume growth, 42% rise in non‑QM fundings, second‑half platform ~10% annualized ROE, January earnings >$1M), all while leveraging an $8.5B portfolio (up 27% YoY from $3B of purchases), $4.2B of 2025 securitizations (10 transactions; $2.4B HE securitized across 5 deals), and roughly $109M liquidity ($58M cash, $50M committed HE financing, $1M unencumbered agency RMBS).AG Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 492.91M | 472.69M | 413.19M | 274.71M | 256.77M | 67.52M |
| Gross Profit | 464.48M | 447.80M | 392.14M | 257.19M | 239.48M | 53.91M |
| EBITDA | 457.33M | 453.35M | 398.45M | 266.28M | 65.82M | 131.44M |
| Net Income | 33.63M | 48.67M | 55.74M | 53.78M | -53.10M | 104.19M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.29B | 8.71B | 6.91B | 6.13B | 4.37B | 3.36B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.31M | 76.32M | 118.87M | 111.53M | 84.62M | 68.31M |
| Total Debt | 7.70B | 8.10B | 6.33B | 5.56B | 3.88B | 2.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.74B | 8.15B | 6.37B | 5.60B | 3.91B | 2.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 544.40M | 560.73M | 543.42M | 528.37M | 462.80M | 570.38M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 67.91M | 59.57M | 55.84M | 28.13M | 22.52M | 26.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 67.91M | 59.57M | 55.84M | 28.13M | 22.52M | 26.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -1.67B | -713.13M | -433.50M | -1.49B | -1.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 896.22M | 1.55B | 670.29M | 432.14M | 1.47B | 1.91B |
AG Mortgage Technical Analysis
Positive
8.03
Price Trends
7.70
Positive
7.96
Positive
7.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
61.01
Neutral
85.25
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MITT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.53, above the 50-day MA of 7.70, and above the 200-day MA of 7.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MITT.
AG Mortgage Risk Analysis
AG Mortgage disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AG Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AG Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $277.50M | ― | 18.71% | 14.36% | 1.97% | 326.30% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $224.98M | 4.71 | 17.10% | 14.83% | 31.22% | 58.24% | |
60 Neutral | $247.75M | -16.28 | 6.76% | 9.61% | 15.52% | -54.74% | |
60 Neutral | $252.12M | 7.89 | 11.63% | 15.86% | 1.22% | -10.78% | |
58 Neutral | $155.24M | 7.74 | 4.99% | ― | -10.95% | 106.91% | |
52 Neutral | $290.13M | -16.99 | -0.17% | 13.75% | -7.28% | 97.46% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MITT
AG Mortgage
7.79
2.04
35.41%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
5.24
1.61
44.15%
ACR
ACRES Commercial Realty
21.77
3.30
17.87%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
14.85
2.35
18.80%
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
9.03
0.55
6.45%
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
11.96
-0.63
-4.99%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.