RealReal (REAL)
NASDAQ:REAL
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RealReal
(NASDAQ:REAL)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-7.12% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial strength (negative equity, high debt, and ongoing net losses) and bearish technical signals. Offsetting this, the earnings call provided constructive 2026 growth and margin-expansion guidance and the business has shown improving cash generation and strong gross margins, while valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
High and improving gross margins
Sustained ~75% gross margin (with consignment margins near 90%) indicates durable unit economics in the core marketplace. High product-level margins provide a structural buffer to absorb SG&A, enable reinvestment in authentication/tech, and improve the path to sustained operating profitability as scale grows.
Negative Factors
Weakened balance sheet and negative equity
Negative equity and sizable outstanding debt materially constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing and solvency risk. Even with gradual debt reduction, the capital structure leaves limited capacity for large investments or adverse shocks and makes long-term strategic options more dependent on cash generation consistency.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and improving gross margins
Sustained ~75% gross margin (with consignment margins near 90%) indicates durable unit economics in the core marketplace. High product-level margins provide a structural buffer to absorb SG&A, enable reinvestment in authentication/tech, and improve the path to sustained operating profitability as scale grows.
Read all positive factors
RealReal (REAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.28
Revenue Growth14.30%
EPS Growth23.73%
CountryUS
Employees3,011
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLuxury Goods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding118,982,800
10 Day Avg. Volume2,965,467
30 Day Avg. Volume3,706,677
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.53
Price to Book (P/B)-10.91
Price to Sales (P/S)6.54
P/FCF Ratio246.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda134.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.19Price Target Upside87.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$776.41M
RealReal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The RealReal, Inc. operates an online marketplace for consigned luxury goods in the United State. It offers various product categories, including women's, men's, kids', jewelry and watches, and home and art products. The company was incorporated i...
How the Company Makes Money
The RealReal primarily makes money by taking a commission (often referred to as a consignment fee or take rate) on the sale price of items it sells on behalf of consignors. Under its core consignment model, individuals send in luxury items; The Re...
RealReal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong top-line growth (GMV +22% Q4; full year GMV +16%), meaningful margin expansion and improving cash generation, driven by AI/automation (Athena), sales productivity and product initiatives. Management met key operational targets (35% Athena coverage) and provided constructive 2026 guidance while outlining further investments in AI, search, MyCloset and supply initiatives. Notable concerns include a decline in take rate due to mix (impacting revenue conversion), direct-channel margin variability, modest full-year free cash flow, and the need to scale Athena and other pilots across higher-value items. Overall, positive execution and momentum were balanced with a set of execution and mix risks that the company is actively addressing.Positive Updates
Strong GMV Growth and Annual Milestone
Q4 GMV of $616 million, up 22% year-over-year; full year 2025 GMV of $2.13 billion, up 16%, and the company surpassed $2 billion GMV for the year — a stated milestone indicating scale and market leadership.
Negative Updates
Take Rate Decline
Q4 take rate declined to 36.5%, down 120 basis points year-over-year. Management attributes this to a favorable mix shift toward higher-value items that carry lower percentage take rates, which depresses revenue growth relative to GMV.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong GMV Growth and Annual Milestone
Q4 GMV of $616 million, up 22% year-over-year; full year 2025 GMV of $2.13 billion, up 16%, and the company surpassed $2 billion GMV for the year — a stated milestone indicating scale and market leadership.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided full-year 2026 GMV growth of 12–15% and revenue growth of 10–13%, with gross margin expected to remain roughly consistent with 2025 and adjusted EBITDA pegged at $57–65 million (≈8% margin at the midpoint, ~200 bps expansion vs. 2025); they expect capex of 2–3% of revenue and that operating cash flow and free cash flow will benefit from working‑capital dynamics in H2. For Q1 2026 they guided GMV growth of 19–22%, revenue growth of 16–18%, direct revenue to be 12–15% of total revenue, and Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $11–13 million (≈6–7% of revenue, implying 340–430 bps of YoY margin expansion). For context, 2025 actuals were GMV $2.13B (+16%), revenue $693M (+15%), adjusted EBITDA $42M (6.1%), operating cash flow $37M and free cash flow $5M.RealReal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 692.85M | 600.48M | 549.30M | 603.49M | 467.69M |
| Gross Profit | 483.82M | 447.52M | 376.28M | 348.69M | 273.48M |
| EBITDA | 19.27M | -79.44M | -125.79M | -158.13M | -171.55M |
| Net Income | -41.80M | -134.20M | -168.47M | -196.44M | -236.11M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 409.03M | 423.10M | 446.92M | 615.64M | 754.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 151.23M | 172.21M | 175.71M | 293.79M | 418.17M |
| Total Debt | 463.25M | 546.55M | 577.37M | 595.74M | 509.79M |
| Total Liabilities | 824.55M | 830.47M | 750.22M | 785.73M | 681.82M |
| Stockholders Equity | -415.52M | -407.38M | -303.30M | -170.09M | 73.13M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.37M | -4.50M | -90.44M | -114.42M | -189.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 37.01M | 21.55M | -61.27M | -91.56M | -142.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.22M | -25.59M | -42.13M | -36.92M | -43.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -28.87M | 539.00K | 226.00K | 4.10M | 252.91M |
RealReal Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.69
Price Trends
11.05
Negative
13.10
Negative
10.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.46
Negative
47.93
Neutral
75.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REAL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.28, below the 50-day MA of 11.05, and below the 200-day MA of 10.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for REAL.
RealReal Risk Analysis
RealReal disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. RealReal reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
RealReal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $449.69M | 23.81 | 24.22% | ― | 23.75% | 59.66% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $1.20B | -21.03 | 56.42% | ― | 97.28% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $2.37B | 6.45 | -244.66% | ― | -17.66% | -223.06% | |
46 Neutral | $1.15B | -108.42 | 11.34% | ― | 14.30% | 23.73% | |
44 Neutral | $131.44M | -7.10 | -15.32% | 14.29% | 1.32% | -175.81% | |
42 Neutral | $169.57M | -1.49 | 404.88% | ― | -23.54% | -49.41% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
REAL
RealReal
9.69
4.71
94.58%
CPRI
Capri Holdings
19.88
5.23
35.70%
ELA
Envela
17.32
11.04
175.80%
LUXE
LuxExperience
8.76
0.88
11.17%
LANV
Lanvin Group Holdings
1.45
-0.76
-34.39%
BRLT
Brilliant Earth Group
1.30
0.04
3.17%
RealReal Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
RealReal Strengthens Leadership With New C-Suite Appointments
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 6, 2026, The RealReal, Inc. reported that director Niki Leondakis stepped down from its board, while Fanatics Commerce COO Jennifer McKeehan was appointed a Class II director with a term running to the 2027 annual meeting. McKeehan, a vet...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.