Realreal (REAL)
NASDAQ:REAL
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RealReal
(NASDAQ:REAL)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-25.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial resilience (negative equity and meaningful debt) and a technically weak price trend versus key moving averages. Offsetting these are a supportive earnings call with raised 2026 growth and adjusted EBITDA guidance and improving cash flow, while valuation is only moderately supportive and corporate leadership changes are positive but early.
Positive Factors
High Gross Margin / Unit Economics
Sustained ~73% gross margins show durable unit economics for authenticated luxury resale. High gross margin provides a structural buffer to cover fulfillment and authentication costs, supports reinvestment in automation, and improves the path to durable operating profitability as scale increases.
Negative Factors
Weak Balance Sheet / Leverage
Persistent negative equity and sizable debt relative to assets create elevated refinancing and liquidity risk. This limits strategic flexibility, raises borrowing costs, and makes the company more sensitive to revenue or cash-flow shocks, constraining durable investments or M&A optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Gross Margin / Unit Economics
Sustained ~73% gross margins show durable unit economics for authenticated luxury resale. High gross margin provides a structural buffer to cover fulfillment and authentication costs, supports reinvestment in automation, and improves the path to durable operating profitability as scale increases.
Read all positive factors
RealReal (REAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.12B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.4
Beta (1Y)2.26
Revenue Growth17.16%
EPS Growth-48.49%
CountryUS
Employees3,011
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLuxury Goods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.58
Shares Outstanding120,487,724
10 Day Avg. Volume5,390,623
30 Day Avg. Volume3,708,524
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.53
Price to Book (P/B)-10.91
Price to Sales (P/S)6.54
P/FCF Ratio246.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-62.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.86Price Target Upside39.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$780.58M
RealReal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The RealReal, Inc. operates an online marketplace for consigned luxury goods in the United State. It offers various product categories, including women's, men's, kids', jewelry and watches, and home and art products. The company was incorporated i...
How the Company Makes Money
The RealReal primarily makes money by taking a commission (often referred to as a consignment fee or take rate) on the sale price of items it sells on behalf of consignors. Under its core consignment model, individuals send in luxury items; The Re...
RealReal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, consistent top-line growth (GMV +24%, revenue +19%), expanding profitability (adjusted EBITDA margin +430 bps), higher buyer engagement and AOV gains, and concrete operational investments in AI and automation that should drive future efficiency. Management raised full-year guidance and described multiple execution levers (stores, sales team, MyCloset, Real Partners, Athena, automated storage) to sustain the flywheel. The main issues noted were mix-driven take-rate compression, a modest decline in gross margin, seasonal negative operating cash flow, and that international/drop-ship initiatives remain early-stage. Overall, positives around growth, margin expansion and execution materially outweigh the manageable near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Raised Full-Year Outlook
Company increased full-year guidance: GMV to $2.42B–$2.47B (14%–16% growth), revenue to $770M–$784M (11%–13% growth), and adjusted EBITDA to $59M–$67M (implying ~8.1% margin at midpoint, ~200 bps improvement vs. 2025).
Negative Updates
Take Rate Compression (Mix Impact)
Q1 blended take rate was 36.4%, down ~220 basis points year-over-year due to favorable mix into higher-value items (lower percentage take but higher profit dollars). Management expects take-rate pressure in the first half with normalization in back half depending on mix.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Raised Full-Year Outlook
Company increased full-year guidance: GMV to $2.42B–$2.47B (14%–16% growth), revenue to $770M–$784M (11%–13% growth), and adjusted EBITDA to $59M–$67M (implying ~8.1% margin at midpoint, ~200 bps improvement vs. 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 guidance to GMV of $2.42B–$2.47B (14%–16% YoY), revenue of $770M–$784M (11%–13% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $59M–$67M (≈8.1% margin at the midpoint, ~200 bps improvement vs. 2025), while reiterating a medium‑term adjusted EBITDA target of 15%–20%; for Q2 2026 they guided GMV $590M–$600M (17%–19% YoY; ~32% on a 2‑year basis at midpoint), revenue $186M–$189M (13%–14% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $11M–$12M (≈6.1% margin at midpoint, ~200 bps YoY expansion). These raises were supported by Q1 results and operating metrics: Q1 GMV $606M (+24% YoY, +32% 2‑yr), revenue $190M (+19% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $13.1M (6.9%, +430 bps YoY), trailing‑12‑month active buyers +10% YoY, AOV $646 (+15% YoY), blended take rate 36.4% (‑220 bps YoY) and $139M cash on hand.RealReal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 722.53M | 692.85M | 600.48M | 549.30M | 603.49M | 467.69M |
| Gross Profit | 521.88M | 483.82M | 447.52M | 376.28M | 348.69M | 273.48M |
| EBITDA | -47.87M | 19.27M | -79.44M | -125.79M | -158.13M | -171.55M |
| Net Income | -65.26M | -41.80M | -134.20M | -168.47M | -196.44M | -236.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 385.91M | 409.03M | 423.10M | 446.92M | 615.64M | 754.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 123.95M | 151.23M | 172.21M | 175.71M | 293.79M | 418.17M |
| Total Debt | 464.53M | 463.25M | 546.55M | 577.37M | 595.74M | 509.79M |
| Total Liabilities | 745.28M | 824.55M | 830.47M | 750.22M | 785.73M | 681.82M |
| Stockholders Equity | -359.37M | -415.52M | -407.38M | -303.30M | -170.09M | 73.13M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.59M | 18.37M | -4.50M | -90.44M | -114.42M | -189.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 43.65M | 37.01M | 21.55M | -61.27M | -91.56M | -142.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.01M | -29.22M | -25.59M | -42.13M | -36.92M | -43.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -25.35M | -28.87M | 539.00K | 226.00K | 4.10M | 252.91M |
RealReal Technical Analysis
Negative
12.08
Price Trends
10.28
Negative
11.99
Negative
11.66
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.54
Positive
38.81
Neutral
39.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.68, above the 50-day MA of 10.28, and above the 200-day MA of 11.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for REAL.
RealReal Risk Analysis
RealReal disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. RealReal reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
RealReal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $622.34M | 12.23 | 32.00% | ― | 54.23% | 186.30% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $989.66M | -6.74 | 34.58% | ― | 194.57% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $1.12B | 17.42 | 17.42% | ― | 17.16% | -48.49% | |
51 Neutral | $2.19B | 6.45 | -244.66% | ― | -19.81% | 45.85% | |
48 Neutral | $121.44M | -3.48 | -36.73% | 14.29% | 5.83% | -8491.43% | |
46 Neutral | $226.07M | ― | 120.31% | ― | -23.87% | -27.19% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
REAL
RealReal
9.20
3.99
76.58%
CPRI
Capri Holdings
18.48
1.68
10.00%
ELA
Envela
23.85
17.60
281.60%
LUXE
LuxExperience
6.98
-2.03
-22.53%
LANV
Lanvin Group Holdings
1.74
-0.45
-20.55%
BRLT
Brilliant Earth Group
1.22
-0.02
-1.61%
RealReal Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
RealReal Strengthens Leadership With New C-Suite Appointments
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 6, 2026, The RealReal, Inc. reported that director Niki Leondakis stepped down from its board, while Fanatics Commerce COO Jennifer McKeehan was appointed a Class II director with a term running to the 2027 annual meeting. McKeehan, a vet...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.