Phillips 66 (PSX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.11B
• Dividend Yield: 3.68%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.31M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: -10.56%
• EPS Growth: -53.06%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,200
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 2.52
• Shares Outstanding: 402,921,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,245,760
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,308,979
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.29
• 1Y Price Target: $147.43
• Price Target Upside: 2.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $153.00 ▲(6.09% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (especially cash flow strength and a stable balance sheet) and a strong earnings-call read-through on operations and strategy. Offsetting factors are mixed technical momentum (negative MACD) and a relatively expensive valuation despite the supportive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Strength

Phillips 66's exceptional free cash flow growth (95.03%) and strong FCF-to-net-income conversion (0.85) indicate durable cash generation. This financial flexibility supports sustaining and growth capex, dividend funding, and debt reduction, improving resilience across industry cycles.

Refining Operational Execution

A 99% refining utilization rate and 87% clean product yield reflect superior operational efficiency. High utilization reduces per-barrel unit costs and supports margin stability, making earnings more resilient to price swings and enabling better returns on refining assets over the medium term.

Asset Consolidation & Pipeline Growth

Consolidating ownership of Wood River and Borger improves control of integrated assets and capture of downstream synergies. Full ownership strengthens ability to coordinate capital, optimize throughput and link pipeline projects, enhancing long-term supply reliability and margin capture.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Material revenue contraction (TTM decline ~23.5%; Fundamentals show negative revenue growth) undermines operating leverage. With modest net margins (~1.14%), sustained top-line weakness can quickly erode earnings and cash flow, pressuring investment capacity and shareholder returns.

Environmental & Idling Costs

Significant environmental accruals and idling charges (including LA refinery-related charges) create recurring remediation and closure expenses. These non-discretionary costs reduce returns on affected assets and can require additional capital or reserves, pressuring free cash flow durability.

Midstream & Renewable Margins Pressure

Midstream margin compression, despite higher volumes, and weaker renewable fuels margins reduce the firm's diversification benefits. Structural or cyclical weakness in these segments could materially lower earnings stability and limit the long-term upside from midstream and low-carbon investments.

Phillips 66 Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Phillips 66 operates as an energy manufacturing and logistics company. It operates through four segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties (M&S). The Midstream segment transports crude oil and other feedstocks; delivers refined petroleum products to market; provides terminaling and storage services for crude oil and refined petroleum products; transports, stores, fractionates, exports, and markets natural gas liquids; provides other fee-based processing services; and gathers, processes, transports, and markets natural gas. The Chemicals segment produces and markets ethylene and other olefin products; aromatics and styrenics products, such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene; and various specialty chemical products, including organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals used in drilling and mining. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasolines, distillates, aviation, and renewable fuels at 12 refineries in the United States and Europe. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, including gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels primarily in the United States and Europe. This segment also manufactures and markets specialty products, such as base oils and lubricants. The company was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Phillips 66 generates revenue primarily through the refining and marketing of petroleum products, which includes gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The company operates refineries that convert crude oil into these products, and its extensive midstream operations transport and store crude oil and refined products, generating fees for services rendered. Another key revenue stream comes from the chemicals segment, which produces a variety of chemical products used in various industries. Additionally, Phillips 66 benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its capabilities in logistics and production. Market fluctuations in crude oil prices, refining margins, and demand for transportation fuels also significantly impact the company's earnings.

Phillips 66 Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Phillips 66 presents a mixed financial picture. Despite a decline in revenue growth, the company maintains profitability with a positive net profit margin and strong cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable with a balanced leverage position, but improvement in revenue growth and operational efficiency is needed.

Income Statement

Phillips 66's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 23.5%, reflecting challenges in maintaining top-line growth. However, the company maintains a positive net profit margin of 1.14% and a gross profit margin of 3.67%, indicating some level of profitability despite revenue pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, suggesting operational efficiency, but there's room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Phillips 66 is relatively stable. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.81, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) is 5.52%, which is modest but shows the company is generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure with a good proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Phillips 66 demonstrates strong cash flow management. The free cash flow growth rate is impressive at 95.03%, indicating robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.19, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.85, reflecting efficient conversion of earnings into cash flow, which is crucial for sustaining operations and funding growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	132.51B	143.12B	147.26B	170.12B	111.94B	63.69B
Gross Profit	4.87B	4.86B	11.29B	12.77B	3.38B	180.00M
EBITDA	6.21B	5.99B	12.37B	16.91B	3.95B	-3.05B
Net Income	1.50B	2.12B	7.00B	11.02B	1.31B	-3.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	76.12B	72.58B	75.50B	76.44B	55.59B	54.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.84B	1.74B	3.32B	6.13B	3.15B	2.51B
Total Debt	21.75B	20.06B	19.36B	17.19B	14.74B	16.16B
Total Liabilities	48.04B	44.12B	43.85B	42.34B	33.96B	33.20B
Stockholders Equity	26.92B	27.41B	30.58B	29.49B	19.17B	18.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.90B	2.33B	4.61B	8.62B	4.16B	-809.00M
Operating Cash Flow	3.41B	4.19B	7.03B	10.81B	6.02B	2.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.98B	-2.46B	-5.86B	-1.49B	-1.87B	-3.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.14B	-3.31B	-4.03B	-6.39B	-3.47B	1.79B

Phillips 66 Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 144.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 144.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.14, above the 50-day MA of 136.04, and above the 200-day MA of 124.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PSX.

Phillips 66 Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	69 Neutral	$58.11B	38.85	5.38%	3.68%	-10.56%	-53.06%
SUN	68 Neutral	$8.59B	19.13	8.27%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
DINO	68 Neutral	$9.31B	24.20	4.07%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
MPC	66 Neutral	$53.23B	18.79	15.98%	2.24%	-6.37%	-25.83%
VLO	66 Neutral	$58.35B	38.57	6.07%	2.74%	-8.48%	-56.92%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
PBF	49 Neutral	$3.80B	-6.90	-9.47%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%