Phillips 66 Common Stock (PSX)
NYSE:PSX
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Phillips 66
(NYSE:PSX)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$178.00
â–²(13.83% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/19/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance with positive free cash flow and manageable leverage, though tempered by pronounced cyclicality in margins and cash flows. Technicals are supportive with strong trend and momentum, but the setup looks stretched near overbought levels. Valuation appears reasonable with a supportive dividend yield, and the latest earnings call adds confidence via clear cost and midstream growth targets despite near-term segment headwinds.
Positive Factors
Midstream growth runway
A clear, multi-year midstream growth plan backed by recent record performance provides a durable earnings and cash flow expansion path. Material organic projects and pipeline additions (e.g., Coastal Bend) shift revenue mix toward fee-like, less commodity-sensitive cash flows, improving long-term margin stability and funding capacity.
Negative Factors
Cyclical margin volatility
Refining and corporate earnings remain highly cyclical, driven by crack spreads and commodity moves. Persistent margin swings translate into uneven free cash flow and return metrics, reducing predictability of capital allocation outcomes and making multi-quarter planning and sustained dividend/buyback guidance more sensitive to commodity cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Midstream growth runway
A clear, multi-year midstream growth plan backed by recent record performance provides a durable earnings and cash flow expansion path. Material organic projects and pipeline additions (e.g., Coastal Bend) shift revenue mix toward fee-like, less commodity-sensitive cash flows, improving long-term margin stability and funding capacity.
Read all positive factors
Phillips 66 (PSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$65.30B
Dividend Yield3.68%
Average Volume (3M)3.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.9
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth-7.64%
EPS Growth118.60%
CountryUS
Employees13,200
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.47
Shares Outstanding400,982,600
10 Day Avg. Volume3,027,025
30 Day Avg. Volume3,598,197
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.80
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio19.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$177.06Price Target Upside13.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)13.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$155.73B
Phillips 66 Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Phillips 66 operates as an energy manufacturing and logistics company. It operates through four segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties (M&S). The Midstream segment transports crude oil and other feedstocks; deliver...
How the Company Makes Money
Phillips 66 generates earnings from multiple operating segments with different margin drivers:
1) Refining: The company buys crude oil and other feedstocks, processes them in its refineries into products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and ot...
Phillips 66 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows the profitability of each business unit before tax obligations, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows the profitability of each business unit before tax obligations, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPhillips 66 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, especially in midstream and refining, with clear targets for cost reduction and midstream EBITDA growth through 2027. Management highlighted material portfolio actions, monetizations (> $5 billion), debt reduction, and shareholder returns while acknowledging near-term headwinds in chemicals (polyethylene margins), the one-time and transitional costs from idling the Los Angeles refinery, and some regional margin weakness. On balance, the announced growth runway (midstream to ~$4.5B EBITDA), continued reliability improvements, and disciplined capital allocation outweigh the identifiable headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Results (Q4 and FY2025)
Q4 reported earnings of $2.9 billion ($7.17/share) and Q4 adjusted earnings of $1.0 billion ($2.47/share). Q4 operating cash flow was $2.8 billion, capital spending was $682 million, and the company returned $756 million to shareholders (including $274 million of share repurchases).
Negative Updates
Flat Adjusted Earnings and Segment Offsets
Total company adjusted earnings were flat for the quarter at $1.0 billion, with improvements in refining, renewable fuels, and midstream largely offset by decreases in chemicals and marketing & specialties.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Results (Q4 and FY2025)
Q4 reported earnings of $2.9 billion ($7.17/share) and Q4 adjusted earnings of $1.0 billion ($2.47/share). Q4 operating cash flow was $2.8 billion, capital spending was $682 million, and the company returned $756 million to shareholders (including $274 million of share repurchases).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Phillips 66 guided that in Q1 2026 it expects global O&P utilization in the mid‑90s and worldwide crude utilization in the low‑90s; Q1 turnaround expense of $170–$190M (full‑year $550–$600M); Q1 corporate & other of $400–$420M (full‑year $1.5–$1.6B); and depreciation & amortization of $2.1–$2.3B, with idled Los Angeles refinery costs moving into corporate beginning 2026. Refining is targeting adjusted controllable cost of ~$5.50/barrel by 2027. Midstream targets a run‑rate adjusted EBITDA of ~$4.5B by year‑end 2027 (after ~ $1B in 2025 and +40% since 2022), plans a gas plant every 12–18 months, and will add 125,000 b/d Coastal Bend pipeline capacity in late 2026; midstream cash flow is expected to support ~ $2B dividend and ~$1B sustaining cap while excess supports growth, buybacks and debt reduction toward a $17B debt target.Phillips 66 Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 132.19B | 143.12B | 147.26B | 170.12B | 111.94B |
| Gross Profit | 6.49B | 4.86B | 11.29B | 12.77B | 3.38B |
| EBITDA | 9.76B | 5.99B | 12.37B | 16.91B | 3.95B |
| Net Income | 4.40B | 2.12B | 7.00B | 11.02B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 73.68B | 72.58B | 75.50B | 76.44B | 55.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.12B | 1.74B | 3.32B | 6.13B | 3.15B |
| Total Debt | 22.88B | 20.06B | 19.36B | 17.19B | 14.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.44B | 44.12B | 43.85B | 42.34B | 33.96B |
| Stockholders Equity | 29.09B | 27.41B | 30.58B | 29.49B | 19.17B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.73B | 2.33B | 4.61B | 8.62B | 4.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.96B | 4.19B | 7.03B | 10.81B | 6.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.97B | -2.46B | -5.86B | -1.49B | -1.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.67B | -3.31B | -4.03B | -6.39B | -3.47B |
Phillips 66 Technical Analysis
Neutral
156.37
Price Trends
165.81
Negative
151.22
Positive
139.60
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.45
Positive
36.53
Neutral
21.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 156.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 172.47, below the 50-day MA of 165.81, and above the 200-day MA of 139.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PSX.
Phillips 66 Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $65.30B | 11.90 | 15.90% | 3.68% | -7.64% | 118.60% | |
69 Neutral | $70.51B | 10.87 | 9.88% | 2.74% | -5.44% | -9.92% | |
66 Neutral | $66.01B | 12.26 | 24.01% | 2.24% | -4.31% | 34.12% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $13.50B | 13.57 | 7.26% | 6.88% | 11.05% | -65.14% | |
62 Neutral | $10.86B | 14.84 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -6.00% | 271.43% | |
57 Neutral | $4.79B | -19.51 | -3.05% | 4.14% | -11.42% | 69.34% |
* Energy Sector Average
PSX
Phillips 66
164.10
62.07
60.83%
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VLO
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PBF
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40.77
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SUN
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20.17%
Phillips 66 Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Phillips 66 Secures New $2.25 Billion Term Loan
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Phillips 66 Company entered into a 364-day $2.25 billion term loan credit agreement with a bank syndicate led by Mizuho Bank, Ltd., fully drawing the facility on the closing date. The loan, guaranteed by Phillips 66, includes cu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Phillips 66 Adds Independent Directors, Strengthens Board Governance
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Phillips 66 expanded its board of directors from 14 to 16 members and appointed industry veteran Kevin O. Meyers and former Dow executive Howard I. Ungerleider as independent directors, assigning both to the Audit Finance and Pu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.