Phillips 66 (PSX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $51.93B
• Dividend Yield: 3.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: -10.56%
• EPS Growth: -53.06%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,200
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 2.52
• Shares Outstanding: 402,921,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,839,272
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,325,639
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.29
• 1Y Price Target: $147.31
• Price Target Upside: 14.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $133.05B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $155.00 ▲(20.26% Upside)

Phillips 66's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's stable balance sheet and robust cash flow management are significant strengths. Technical indicators suggest a stable upward trend, while valuation metrics indicate potential overvaluation. Strategic acquisitions and operational efficiencies support future growth prospects.

Positive Factors

Operational Synergies

Full ownership of key refineries enhances operational synergies, enabling cost efficiencies and improved market positioning.

Cash Flow Management

Robust cash generation supports sustainable operations and growth investments, ensuring long-term financial stability.

Refining Utilization

High refining utilization rates indicate efficient operations and strong demand, contributing to profitability and market competitiveness.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A significant decline in revenue growth reflects challenges in maintaining top-line performance, potentially impacting future earnings.

Environmental Costs

Environmental costs increase operational expenses, affecting profitability and highlighting potential regulatory risks.

Midstream Margin Decline

Declining margins in the midstream segment could pressure overall profitability and limit growth in this business area.

Phillips 66 Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Phillips 66 (PSX) is a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company headquartered in Houston, Texas. It operates through four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties. The company is involved in the transportation and storage of crude oil and refined petroleum products, the production of chemicals, and the refining of crude oil into gasoline and other petroleum products. Phillips 66 also markets its products through a network of retail outlets and commercial customers, making it a key player in the energy sector.

How the Company Makes Money

Phillips 66 generates revenue primarily through the refining and marketing of petroleum products, which includes gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The company operates refineries that convert crude oil into these products, and its extensive midstream operations transport and store crude oil and refined products, generating fees for services rendered. Another key revenue stream comes from the chemicals segment, which produces a variety of chemical products used in various industries. Additionally, Phillips 66 benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its capabilities in logistics and production. Market fluctuations in crude oil prices, refining margins, and demand for transportation fuels also significantly impact the company's earnings.

Phillips 66 Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Phillips 66 presents a mixed financial picture. Despite a decline in revenue growth, the company maintains profitability with a positive net profit margin and strong cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable with a balanced leverage position, but improvement in revenue growth and operational efficiency is needed.

Income Statement

Phillips 66's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 23.5%, reflecting challenges in maintaining top-line growth. However, the company maintains a positive net profit margin of 1.14% and a gross profit margin of 3.67%, indicating some level of profitability despite revenue pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, suggesting operational efficiency, but there's room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Phillips 66 is relatively stable. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.81, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) is 5.52%, which is modest but shows the company is generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure with a good proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Phillips 66 demonstrates strong cash flow management. The free cash flow growth rate is impressive at 95.03%, indicating robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.19, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.85, reflecting efficient conversion of earnings into cash flow, which is crucial for sustaining operations and funding growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	132.51B	143.12B	147.26B	170.12B	111.94B	63.69B
Gross Profit	4.87B	4.86B	11.29B	12.77B	3.38B	180.00M
EBITDA	6.21B	5.99B	12.37B	16.91B	3.95B	-3.05B
Net Income	1.50B	2.12B	7.00B	11.02B	1.31B	-3.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	76.12B	72.58B	75.50B	76.44B	55.59B	54.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.84B	1.74B	3.32B	6.13B	3.15B	2.51B
Total Debt	21.75B	20.06B	19.36B	17.19B	14.74B	16.16B
Total Liabilities	48.04B	44.12B	43.85B	42.34B	33.96B	33.20B
Stockholders Equity	26.92B	27.41B	30.58B	29.49B	19.17B	18.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.90B	2.33B	4.61B	8.62B	4.16B	-809.00M
Operating Cash Flow	3.41B	4.19B	7.03B	10.81B	6.02B	2.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.98B	-2.46B	-5.86B	-1.49B	-1.87B	-3.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.14B	-3.31B	-4.03B	-6.39B	-3.47B	1.79B

Phillips 66 Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 128.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 128.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 136.99, below the 50-day MA of 135.65, and above the 200-day MA of 124.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PSX.

Phillips 66 Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	73 Outperform	$51.93B	35.22	5.38%	3.69%	-10.56%	-53.06%
SUN	72 Outperform	$7.98B	17.77	8.27%	6.93%	-5.18%	-33.14%
VLO	69 Neutral	$49.63B	33.87	6.07%	2.78%	-8.48%	-56.92%
DINO	68 Neutral	$8.68B	22.72	4.07%	4.24%	-9.55%	27.65%
MPC	66 Neutral	$50.60B	17.95	15.98%	2.22%	-6.37%	-25.83%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
PBF	55 Neutral	$3.05B	-5.65	-9.47%	4.17%	-15.35%	-81.94%

Phillips 66 Corporate Events

Phillips 66 Enhances Financial Flexibility with Securitization Amendment

On September 29, 2025, Phillips 66 Company amended its accounts receivable securitization program, increasing the maximum facility size from $1 billion to $1.25 billion and extending the maturity date to September 28, 2026. This amendment is expected to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and support its operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

Phillips 66 Announces $2 Billion Notes Offering

On September 16, 2025, Phillips 66 Company entered into a Terms Agreement for a public offering of $2 billion in junior subordinated notes, guaranteed by Phillips 66. This financial move, involving Series A and Series B notes due in 2056, is expected to impact the company’s financial structure and market positioning.

Phillips 66 Acquires Full Ownership of WRB Refining

On September 9, 2025, Phillips 66 announced an agreement to acquire the remaining 50% ownership interest in WRB Refining LP from Cenovus Energy Inc. for $1.4 billion. This acquisition will give Phillips 66 full ownership of the Wood River and Borger refineries, enhancing its industry position and operational synergies. The transaction is expected to increase Phillips 66’s refining capacity by approximately 250 MBD and is anticipated to deliver annual synergies of about $50 million, unlocking opportunities for high-return projects and long-term shareholder value.