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Phillips 66
(NYSE:PSX)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$213.00
▲(36.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is primarily held back by weakened TTM cash flow and increased leverage, despite improving profitability from the 2024 trough and solid ROE. Technically, the stock is supported by a clear longer-term uptrend with neutral momentum. Valuation is a notable headwind due to the very high P/E, partially offset by the dividend. The earnings call added support via clear utilization/cost guidance and a credible deleveraging and shareholder-return framework, though near-term working-capital and mark-to-market volatility remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Commercial Execution / Market Capture
Sustained commercial optimization and expanded origination/trading network (138% market capture) reflects a durable operating advantage: it helps secure feedstock and placement of products, smooths margin capture across cycles, and monetizes logistics scale rather than relying solely on cyclical crack spreads.
Negative Factors
Weakened Cash Generation
Material decline in operating and free cash flow reduces internal funding for capex, debt reduction and shareholder returns. Lower cash conversion (FCF only ~28% of net income TTM) heightens dependence on external financing and makes the company more vulnerable to prolonged weak refining/chemicals spreads.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial Execution / Market Capture
Sustained commercial optimization and expanded origination/trading network (138% market capture) reflects a durable operating advantage: it helps secure feedstock and placement of products, smooths margin capture across cycles, and monetizes logistics scale rather than relying solely on cyclical crack spreads.
Read all positive factors
Phillips 66 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows the profitability of each business unit before tax obligations, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows the profitability of each business unit before tax obligations, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
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The Fly
The FlyPhillips 66 (PSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$83.72B
Dividend Yield2.33%
Average Volume (3M)2.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.5
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth-1.33%
EPS Growth130.72%
CountryUS
Employees12,600
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.19
Shares Outstanding400,935,030
10 Day Avg. Volume2,712,070
30 Day Avg. Volume2,700,988
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.80
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio19.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$201.57Price Target Upside28.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)19.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$154.20B
Phillips 66 Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its comprehensive business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S)....
How the Company Makes Money
Phillips 66 primarily makes money by converting hydrocarbon feedstocks into higher-value products and by charging for transportation, storage, and related logistics services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Refining: revenue is generated from sel...
Phillips 66 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced sizable near-term challenges—most notably a large mark-to-market loss ($839M), elevated working capital and margin collateral requirements, and temporary borrowings—with multiple operational and strategic positives: strong commercial execution (138% market capture), disciplined capital returns (returned $778M and a 7% dividend increase), liquidity ($5.2B cash), improving refining unit costs, advantaged chemicals feedstock and a clear debt-reduction path to $17B by end-2027. Management characterizes many negatives as liquidity/mark-to-market timing effects and emphasized operational strength and optionality across midstream, refining, chemicals and renewables. Given the company’s demonstrated ability to capture commercial opportunities, substantial liquidity, and a credible plan to reduce debt while continuing shareholder returns, the positives materially outweigh the temporary financial noise.Positive Updates
Reported and Adjusted Earnings
Reported earnings of $207 million ($0.51 per share) and adjusted earnings of $200 million ($0.49 per share) for Q1 2026, demonstrating positive underlying profitability despite market volatility.
Negative Updates
Large Mark-to-Market Losses
Recorded significant mark-to-market losses of $839 million related to short derivative positions used as economic hedges in the quarter (impacting refining, marketing & specialties and renewables), driving an outsized income statement swing despite being largely non-cash.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reported and Adjusted Earnings
Reported earnings of $207 million ($0.51 per share) and adjusted earnings of $200 million ($0.49 per share) for Q1 2026, demonstrating positive underlying profitability despite market volatility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided clear near‑term and medium‑term guidance: for Q2 it expects Chemicals (CPChem) global O&P utilization in the low‑80% range and Refining worldwide crude utilization in the low‑to‑mid‑90s, with turnaround expense of $120–$150 million and Corporate & Other costs of $430–$450 million; management reiterated a debt reduction path to roughly $19 billion by year‑end 2026 and $17 billion by year‑end 2027 (backed by consensus cash from operations of ~ $8 billion for 2026–27) and an allocation framework targeting about $2 billion each to dividends, share repurchases, capital spending and debt paydown while returning >50% of net operating cash flow to shareholders. Contextual Q1 metrics that inform the plan included reported EPS $0.51 (adjusted $0.49), mark‑to‑market losses of ~$839 million, operating cash‑flow use of $2.3 billion (OCF excl. working capital ≈ $700 million), a $3.0 billion working‑capital use, $582 million of capex, $778 million returned to shareholders ($269 million buybacks, $509 million dividends, dividend up 7% annualized), ending cash of $5.2 billion (margin collateral ~$3.2 billion at quarter end, reduced to ~$2.1 billion more recently), a Q1 refining OpEx of $6.21/boe with a $5.50/boe target by 2027, Q1 market capture of 138%, and a midstream EBITDA target of $4.5 billion by year‑end 2027.Phillips 66 Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 135.77B | 132.19B | 143.12B | 147.26B | 170.12B | 111.94B |
| Gross Profit | 9.56B | 6.49B | 4.86B | 11.29B | 12.77B | 3.38B |
| EBITDA | 9.19B | 9.76B | 5.99B | 12.37B | 16.91B | 3.95B |
| Net Income | 4.12B | 4.40B | 2.12B | 7.00B | 11.02B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 84.08B | 73.68B | 72.58B | 75.50B | 76.44B | 55.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.15B | 1.12B | 1.74B | 3.32B | 6.13B | 3.15B |
| Total Debt | 27.12B | 22.88B | 20.06B | 19.36B | 17.19B | 14.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 54.40B | 43.44B | 44.12B | 43.85B | 42.34B | 33.96B |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.53B | 29.09B | 27.41B | 30.58B | 29.49B | 19.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 119.00M | 2.73B | 2.33B | 4.61B | 8.62B | 4.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.51B | 4.96B | 4.19B | 7.03B | 10.81B | 6.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.16B | -1.97B | -2.46B | -5.86B | -1.49B | -1.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.30B | -3.67B | -3.31B | -4.03B | -6.39B | -3.47B |
Phillips 66 Technical Analysis
Positive
156.37
Price Trends
180.32
Positive
174.22
Positive
155.48
Positive
Market Momentum
8.85
Negative
75.79
Negative
97.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 156.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 186.19, below the 50-day MA of 180.32, and above the 200-day MA of 155.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.79 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PSX.
Phillips 66 Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $15.34B | 18.91 | 17.28% | 6.88% | 37.27% | -29.09% | |
72 Outperform | $16.30B | 13.58 | 13.11% | 4.26% | -1.08% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $93.03B | 22.74 | 17.63% | 2.74% | -2.53% | 385.02% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $92.05B | 20.57 | 27.33% | 2.24% | -1.29% | 114.86% | |
56 Neutral | $83.72B | 20.49 | 14.72% | 3.68% | -1.33% | 130.72% | |
56 Neutral | $7.55B | 16.87 | 8.35% | 4.14% | -4.33% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
PSX
Phillips 66
212.27
90.29
74.02%
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MPC
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319.76
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VLO
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314.80
173.31
122.49%
PBF
PBF Energy
66.05
42.84
184.60%
SUN
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74.99
25.62
51.90%
Phillips 66 Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Phillips 66 Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 14, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 13, 2026, Phillips 66 investors elected four Class II directors — Gregory J. Hayes, Charles M. Holley, Denise R. Singleton and Howard I. Ungerleider — to three-year terms ending in 2029...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.