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Phillips 66 (PSX) (PSX)
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Phillips 66 (PSX) AI Stock Analysis

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PSX

Phillips 66

(NYSE:PSX)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$131.00
▲(7.85% Upside)
Phillips 66's overall stock score is driven by strong financial management and positive earnings call highlights, offset by technical analysis indicating bearish momentum and legal challenges impacting sentiment. The company's strategic asset sales provide a positive outlook for future growth.
Positive Factors
Earnings Performance
Phillips 66 reported earnings per share of $2.38, surpassing street estimates of $1.70, driven by strong Refining and Marketing & Specialties results.
Operational Efficiency
Controllable cost per barrel was its lowest since 2021 while margin capture increased 5% y/y during a period of minimal maintenance.
Strategic Initiatives
Management remains confident in achieving its 2027 strategic priorities, which include returning more than 50% of cash flow from operations to shareholders.
Negative Factors
Chemicals Maintenance Impact
Chemicals segment is expected to face headwinds from planned maintenance and unplanned downtime, impacting results.
Chemicals Segment Challenges
Chemicals underperformed with earnings of $20 million compared to consensus estimates of $28 million.
Market Sentiment
The stock trades at a 10%+ discount to peers, with investor sentiment impacted by lingering concerns over midstream capital moves and the structure of the integrated model post-activist engagement.

Phillips 66 (PSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Phillips 66 Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPhillips 66 (PSX) is a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company headquartered in Houston, Texas. The company operates in four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties. Phillips 66 is involved in the transportation, refining, and marketing of petroleum products, as well as the production of petrochemicals and plastics through its joint ventures. Its core products include gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, and a variety of petrochemical products.
How the Company Makes MoneyPhillips 66 generates revenue through several streams. In the Midstream segment, the company earns money by transporting, storing, and processing crude oil and refined petroleum products. The Chemicals segment, primarily through its joint venture with Chevron, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC, produces and markets petrochemicals and plastics, contributing significantly to revenue. The Refining segment involves the processing of crude oil into refined petroleum products, with earnings driven by refining margins and the sale of these products. Lastly, the Marketing and Specialties segment generates income through the sale of refined products and specialty products like lubricants, primarily through its network of branded retail and wholesale outlets. Partnerships, strategic investments, and market conditions significantly impact Phillips 66's earnings, affecting refining margins, chemical prices, and transportation fees.

Phillips 66 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows the profitability of each business unit before tax obligations, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Chart InsightsPhillips 66's Midstream segment shows steady growth, aligning with strategic expansions like the Dos Picos II plant. However, the Refining segment faces significant challenges, with recent losses exacerbated by macroeconomic pressures and turnaround activities. The Chemicals segment's recovery is sluggish, while Renewable Fuels struggles with tax credit transitions. Despite these challenges, the company returned $716 million to shareholders and increased dividends, reflecting a commitment to shareholder value amid mixed financial performance. Strategic improvements in refining operations and asset divestitures could bolster future performance.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Phillips 66 Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 25, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -2.30%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong operational execution, particularly in refining and midstream segments, and robust shareholder returns. However, challenges in the chemicals segment, renewable fuels margins, and higher debt levels were noted.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Refining Utilization
Refining assets ran at 98% utilization, the highest since 2018, with clean product yield over 86%, capturing 99% of the market indicator.
Midstream EBITDA Growth
Midstream generated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1 billion, with a target of $4.5 billion annual EBITDA by 2027.
Strong Shareholder Returns
Returned over $900 million to shareholders this quarter, including $419 million of share repurchases.
Marketing and Specialties Performance
Reported its strongest quarter since 2022, with adjusted earnings increasing significantly.
Successful Acquisition and Integration
Acquired EPIC NGL, renamed Coastal Bend, with pipeline project expansion nearing completion.
Negative Updates
Chemicals Segment Weakness
Results decreased mainly due to lower polyethylene margins driven by lower sales prices.
Renewable Fuels Margin Pressure
Renewable fuels results improved but margins remain weak, with strategic asset challenges noted.
Debt Levels
Net debt to capital was 41%, reflecting the impact of the Coastal Bend acquisition, with plans to reduce debt with operating cash flow.
Los Angeles Refinery Depreciation Impact
Included a $239 million pretax impact of accelerated depreciation due to the planned cessation of operations at the Los Angeles refinery.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Phillips 66 highlighted several key metrics that reflected strong financial and operational performance. The company's refining assets achieved a utilization rate of 98%, marking the highest since 2018, and clean product yield exceeded 86%. They captured 99% of their market indicator and reached their lowest adjusted cost per barrel since 2021. The Midstream segment generated approximately $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA, positioning Phillips 66 on track to meet a $4.5 billion annual EBITDA target by 2027. Marketing and Specialties reported its strongest quarter since 2022. The company returned over $900 million to shareholders, with a significant portion through share repurchases. They also reported adjusted earnings of $973 million or $2.38 per share, and total company adjusted earnings increased to $973 million compared to a loss in the prior quarter. Looking ahead, Phillips 66 anticipates continued optimization of their refining operations, aiming for an adjusted cost per barrel below $5.50 by 2027, while maintaining a focus on debt reduction and strategic growth.

Phillips 66 Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Phillips 66 presents a stable financial profile with strong cash flow management and a balanced capital structure. The company shows resilience through consistent revenue and gross profit figures, although profitability metrics like net profit margin and ROE need improvement.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Phillips 66 has shown a mixed performance with strong gross profit margins and positive revenue growth over the years. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a gross profit margin of 27.44%, which is relatively healthy for the industry. However, the net profit margin for TTM stands at only 1.33%, indicating lower profitability. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with slight declines in recent years, but overall stability has been maintained.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects moderate stability, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69 in TTM, indicating a balanced use of debt and equity financing. The return on equity is relatively low at 6.81% for TTM, suggesting limited returns to shareholders. The equity ratio of 37.97% shows a decent level of equity financing in the asset structure.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Phillips 66 demonstrates strong cash flow management with a significant operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.49 in TTM, indicating efficient conversion of net income into cash flows. The free cash flow has grown by 45.02% from the previous year, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities. Despite negative investing cash flows, the company maintains a healthy cash flow position.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue137.77B143.15B147.40B169.99B111.48B64.13B
Gross Profit9.89B10.83B11.15B18.43B7.77B180.00M
EBITDA5.95B5.99B12.37B16.91B3.95B-3.05B
Net Income1.86B2.12B7.00B11.02B1.31B-3.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets71.84B72.58B75.50B76.44B55.59B54.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.49B1.74B3.32B6.13B3.15B2.51B
Total Debt18.80B20.06B19.36B17.19B14.74B16.16B
Total Liabilities43.48B44.12B43.85B42.34B33.96B33.20B
Stockholders Equity27.27B27.41B30.58B29.49B19.17B18.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.96B2.33B4.61B8.62B4.16B-809.00M
Operating Cash Flow4.61B4.19B7.03B10.81B6.02B2.11B
Investing Cash Flow-207.00M-2.46B-5.86B-1.49B-1.87B-3.08B
Financing Cash Flow-4.51B-3.31B-4.03B-6.39B-3.47B1.79B

Phillips 66 Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price121.46
Price Trends
50DMA
122.24
Negative
100DMA
116.94
Positive
200DMA
119.31
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.24
Positive
RSI
45.52
Neutral
STOCH
20.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 121.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.26, below the 50-day MA of 122.24, and above the 200-day MA of 119.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PSX.

Phillips 66 Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$8.17B9.627.59%6.59%-3.59%22.77%
70
Outperform
$8.19B35.13-0.93%4.72%-14.58%-107.50%
68
Neutral
$49.33B29.386.00%3.81%-12.80%-64.40%
64
Neutral
$51.89B25.0211.24%2.15%-10.03%-64.63%
60
Neutral
$42.51B56.743.07%3.35%-11.72%-86.21%
56
Neutral
C$4.12B-0.220.41%6.51%5.44%-66.76%
49
Neutral
$2.74B-17.30%4.96%-18.73%-236.79%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PSX
Phillips 66
122.07
-8.60
-6.58%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
43.76
-0.50
-1.13%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
168.92
-1.45
-0.85%
VLO
Valero Energy
136.83
-9.96
-6.79%
PBF
PBF Energy
23.65
-12.45
-34.49%
SUN
Sunoco
53.50
3.91
7.88%

Phillips 66 Corporate Events

Legal Proceedings
Phillips 66 Ordered to Pay $195 Million Damages
Negative
Aug 6, 2025

On July 30, 2025, the Superior Court of California ordered Phillips 66 to pay $195 million in exemplary damages to Propel Fuels, in addition to $604.9 million in compensatory damages awarded in October 2024. Phillips 66 denies wrongdoing and plans to appeal, although the outcome is uncertain.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSX) stock is a Buy with a $176.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Phillips 66 stock, see the PSX Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Phillips 66 Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting Decisions
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Phillips 66 held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where several key decisions were made. The shareholders elected four Class I directors to serve until 2028, approved the executive compensation and its annual advisory frequency, and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. However, proposals to declassify the Board of Directors and to require annual director resignations were not approved. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance strategies and may impact its operational focus and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSX) stock is a Buy with a $191.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Phillips 66 stock, see the PSX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Phillips 66 Announces Preliminary Board Election Results
Neutral
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Phillips 66 held its annual meeting of shareholders where preliminary results indicated the election of two Phillips 66 nominees, Robert W. Pease and Nigel Hearne, and two Elliott Management nominees, Sigmund L. Cornelius and Michael A. Heim, to the board of directors. Despite significant support, the proposal to declassify the board did not pass, as it failed to secure the required 80% affirmative vote. The board remains committed to declassification, acknowledging shareholder preference for annual elections. The results are preliminary until certified by the independent Inspector of Election.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSX) stock is a Buy with a $191.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Phillips 66 stock, see the PSX Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Phillips 66 Sells Majority Stake in European Assets
Positive
May 15, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Phillips 66 announced that its subsidiary, Phillips 66 Continental Holding GmbH, has entered into an agreement to sell a 65% interest in its retail marketing assets in Germany and Austria to a consortium owned by Energy Equation Partners and Stonepeak. This transaction, expected to close in the second half of 2025, will allow Phillips 66 to optimize its portfolio and enhance shareholder value by monetizing non-core assets while retaining a 35% interest in the business. The deal values the retail business at approximately €2.5 billion and is expected to generate pre-tax cash proceeds of around €1.5 billion, which will be used to support strategic priorities such as debt reduction and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSX) stock is a Buy with a $191.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Phillips 66 stock, see the PSX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2025