Phillips 66 (PSX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $52.49B
• Dividend Yield: 3.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.37M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: -12.80%
• EPS Growth: -64.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,200
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 2.38
• Shares Outstanding: 404,124,270
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,058,672
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,370,627
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.71
• 1Y Price Target: $136.27
• Price Target Upside: 2.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $134.00 ▲(1.04% Upside)

Phillips 66's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance with strong cash flow management and strategic asset optimization. However, concerns about profitability, high valuation, and recent legal challenges weigh on the score. The company's commitment to shareholder returns and operational efficiency provides a positive outlook, but market sentiment remains cautious due to mixed technical indicators and external pressures.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Phillips 66 reported earnings per share of $2.38, surpassing street estimates of $1.70, driven by strong Refining and Marketing & Specialties results.

Operations

Controllable cost per barrel was its lowest since 2021 while margin capture increased 5% y/y during a period of minimal maintenance.

Strategic Initiatives

The company sees a pathway to lower leverage through working cap reversals and announced asset sales.

Negative Factors

Chemicals Segment

Chemicals underperformed with earnings of $20 million compared to consensus estimates of $28 million.

Investor Sentiment

The stock trades at a 10%+ discount to peers, with investor sentiment impacted by lingering concerns over midstream capital moves and the structure of the integrated model post-activist engagement.

Phillips 66 Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Phillips 66 operates as an energy manufacturing and logistics company. It operates through four segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties (M&S). The Midstream segment transports crude oil and other feedstocks; delivers refined petroleum products to market; provides terminaling and storage services for crude oil and refined petroleum products; transports, stores, fractionates, exports, and markets natural gas liquids; provides other fee-based processing services; and gathers, processes, transports, and markets natural gas. The Chemicals segment produces and markets ethylene and other olefin products; aromatics and styrenics products, such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene; and various specialty chemical products, including organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals used in drilling and mining. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasolines, distillates, aviation, and renewable fuels at 12 refineries in the United States and Europe. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, including gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels primarily in the United States and Europe. This segment also manufactures and markets specialty products, such as base oils and lubricants. The company was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Phillips 66 generates revenue primarily through its Refining segment, which refines crude oil into various petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. This segment benefits from the price differentials between crude oil and refined products. The Midstream segment contributes revenue through the transportation and storage of crude oil and natural gas, earning fees for the use of its infrastructure. The Chemicals segment generates income by producing and selling petrochemicals, which are used in various industries, including plastics and manufacturing. Additionally, the Marketing and Specialties segment earns revenue by selling branded fuels and specialty products at retail locations. Partnerships with other energy companies and the development of logistics networks further enhance Phillips 66's ability to maximize earnings and ensure a steady flow of products to market.

Phillips 66 Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Phillips 66 presents a stable financial profile with strengths in cash flow generation and maintaining a balanced capital structure. While profitability metrics such as net profit margin and ROE are areas of concern, the company continues to show resilience through consistent revenue and gross profit figures, aided by effective cash flow management strategies.

Income Statement

Phillips 66 has shown a mixed performance with strong gross profit margins and positive revenue growth over the years. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a gross profit margin of 27.44%, which is relatively healthy for the industry. However, the net profit margin for TTM stands at only 1.33%, indicating lower profitability. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with slight declines in recent years, but overall stability has been maintained.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects moderate stability, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69 in TTM, indicating a balanced use of debt and equity financing. The return on equity is relatively low at 6.81% for TTM, suggesting limited returns to shareholders. The equity ratio of 37.97% shows a decent level of equity financing in the asset structure.

Cash Flow

Phillips 66 demonstrates strong cash flow management with a significant operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.49 in TTM, indicating efficient conversion of net income into cash flows. The free cash flow has grown by 45.02% from the previous year, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities. Despite negative investing cash flows, the company maintains a healthy cash flow position.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	137.60B	143.12B	147.26B	170.12B	111.94B	63.69B
Gross Profit	3.53B	4.86B	11.29B	12.77B	3.38B	180.00M
EBITDA	5.95B	5.99B	12.37B	16.91B	3.95B	-3.05B
Net Income	1.86B	2.12B	7.00B	11.02B	1.31B	-3.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	71.84B	72.58B	75.50B	76.44B	55.59B	54.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.49B	1.74B	3.32B	6.13B	3.15B	2.51B
Total Debt	18.80B	20.06B	19.36B	17.19B	14.74B	16.16B
Total Liabilities	43.48B	44.12B	43.85B	42.34B	33.96B	33.20B
Stockholders Equity	27.27B	27.41B	30.58B	29.49B	19.17B	18.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.96B	2.33B	4.61B	8.62B	4.16B	-809.00M
Operating Cash Flow	4.61B	4.19B	7.03B	10.81B	6.02B	2.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-207.00M	-2.46B	-5.86B	-1.49B	-1.87B	-3.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.51B	-3.31B	-4.03B	-6.39B	-3.47B	1.79B

Phillips 66 Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 132.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 132.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 122.60, above the 50-day MA of 123.60, and above the 200-day MA of 118.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.83 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PSX.

Phillips 66 Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DINO	74 Outperform	$9.18B	35.13	-0.93%	4.07%	-14.58%	-107.50%
VLO	73 Outperform	$45.65B	61.00	3.07%	3.04%	-11.72%	-86.21%
PSX	69 Neutral	$52.49B	31.17	6.00%	3.54%	-12.80%	-64.40%
MPC	66 Neutral	$52.75B	25.51	11.24%	2.10%	-10.03%	-64.63%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.26B	7.31	3.02%	5.32%	4.27%	-62.52%
SUN	64 Neutral	$7.93B	25.45	6.62%	6.89%	-8.65%	-73.25%
PBF	51 Neutral	$2.87B	―	-17.30%	4.43%	-18.73%	-236.79%

Phillips 66 Corporate Events

Phillips 66 Ordered to Pay $195 Million Damages

On July 30, 2025, the Superior Court of California ordered Phillips 66 to pay $195 million in exemplary damages to Propel Fuels, in addition to $604.9 million in compensatory damages awarded in October 2024. Phillips 66 denies wrongdoing and plans to appeal, although the outcome is uncertain.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSX) stock is a Buy with a $176.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Phillips 66 stock, see the PSX Stock Forecast page.

Phillips 66 Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting Decisions

On May 21, 2025, Phillips 66 held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where several key decisions were made. The shareholders elected four Class I directors to serve until 2028, approved the executive compensation and its annual advisory frequency, and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. However, proposals to declassify the Board of Directors and to require annual director resignations were not approved. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance strategies and may impact its operational focus and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSX) stock is a Buy with a $191.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Phillips 66 stock, see the PSX Stock Forecast page.

Phillips 66 Announces Preliminary Board Election Results

On May 21, 2025, Phillips 66 held its annual meeting of shareholders where preliminary results indicated the election of two Phillips 66 nominees, Robert W. Pease and Nigel Hearne, and two Elliott Management nominees, Sigmund L. Cornelius and Michael A. Heim, to the board of directors. Despite significant support, the proposal to declassify the board did not pass, as it failed to secure the required 80% affirmative vote. The board remains committed to declassification, acknowledging shareholder preference for annual elections. The results are preliminary until certified by the independent Inspector of Election.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSX) stock is a Buy with a $191.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Phillips 66 stock, see the PSX Stock Forecast page.

Phillips 66 Sells Majority Stake in European Assets

On May 15, 2025, Phillips 66 announced that its subsidiary, Phillips 66 Continental Holding GmbH, has entered into an agreement to sell a 65% interest in its retail marketing assets in Germany and Austria to a consortium owned by Energy Equation Partners and Stonepeak. This transaction, expected to close in the second half of 2025, will allow Phillips 66 to optimize its portfolio and enhance shareholder value by monetizing non-core assets while retaining a 35% interest in the business. The deal values the retail business at approximately €2.5 billion and is expected to generate pre-tax cash proceeds of around €1.5 billion, which will be used to support strategic priorities such as debt reduction and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSX) stock is a Buy with a $191.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Phillips 66 stock, see the PSX Stock Forecast page.