PBF Energy (PBF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.78B
• Dividend Yield: 4.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: -16.30%
• EPS Growth: -160.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,855
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -3.09
• Shares Outstanding: 115,647,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,930,368
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,451,632
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.04
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -5.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.25
• 1Y Price Target: $21.70
• Price Target Upside: -9.62% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $25.00 ▲(4.12%Upside)

PBF Energy's score is primarily impacted by financial challenges, with profitability and cash flow being major concerns. Technical analysis shows moderate positive momentum, providing some optimism. Valuation is a weak point due to financial losses, despite a decent dividend yield. The earnings call reflects mixed sentiment, balancing some positive developments with ongoing operational and market challenges.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow and Liquidity

The combination of asset sale, working capital reversal, and business interruption proceeds is expected to bring in significant cash, reducing liquidity risk.

Refining Fundamentals

PBF is upgraded to Buy due to a strong improvement in refining fundamentals.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow

The forecast for negative free cash flow in a normalized future year makes the bull case for the stock challenging.

Operational Reliability

There is an expectation that there will not be a material improvement in PBF West Coast operational reliability, with risks of downtime outweighing closure-related surplus market margin in PADD5.

PBF Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PBF Energy Inc. is a leading independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States. The company operates through its refining and logistics segments, with a portfolio of refineries strategically located in California, Delaware, Louisiana, New Jersey, and Ohio. PBF Energy is dedicated to delivering high-quality products while maintaining a strong commitment to safety, reliability, and environmental stewardship.

How the Company Makes Money

PBF Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining and sale of petroleum products. The company purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, which are then processed in its refineries to produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, and other specialty products. Revenue is driven by the volume of products sold, the pricing of refined products, and refining margins, which reflect the difference between the cost of crude oil and the market price of refined products. The company also earns income from its logistics operations, which transport and store crude oil and finished products. Strategic partnerships and contracts with suppliers and distributors play a crucial role in optimizing supply chain efficiency and expanding market reach, contributing to PBF Energy's earnings.

PBF Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

PBF Energy is facing significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow. With negative profit margins and a declining revenue trend, profitability is under pressure. The balance sheet shows some stability with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, but the negative ROE and cash flow issues indicate financial stress.

Income Statement

PBF Energy's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) income statement shows challenges in profitability with a negative gross profit margin of -3.2% and a net profit margin of -3.3%. Revenue has declined by 4.8% compared to the previous year, indicating a downward trend. The EBIT margin is also negative at -4.3%, suggesting operational inefficiencies. EBITDA margin is negative at -2.6%, further highlighting profitability concerns.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60, indicating a balanced leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is negative at -20.4%, reflecting recent losses. The equity ratio stands at 39.3%, showing a reasonable level of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet indicates stability but hints at financial stress due to recent losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate and an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.61, indicating cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is -0.85, highlighting challenges in converting profit to cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects liquidity issues and cash management difficulties.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	33.12B	38.32B	46.83B	27.25B	15.12B
Gross Profit	-372.20M	2.40B	4.68B	887.20M	―
EBITDA	-17.60M	3.52B	4.31B	1.11B	-510.00M
Net Income	-533.80M	2.14B	2.88B	231.00M	-1.39B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.70B	14.39B	13.55B	11.64B	10.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	536.10M	1.78B	2.20B	1.34B	1.61B
Total Debt	2.31B	2.04B	2.64B	5.01B	5.58B
Total Liabilities	7.02B	7.76B	8.49B	9.11B	8.30B
Stockholders Equity	5.54B	6.49B	4.93B	1.93B	1.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-347.50M	678.90M	4.14B	228.20M	-827.80M
Operating Cash Flow	43.40M	1.34B	4.77B	477.30M	-631.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.04B	-338.60M	-1.01B	-388.50M	-1.03B
Financing Cash Flow	-250.70M	-1.42B	-2.90B	-356.80M	2.45B

PBF Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 24.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 24.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.50, above the 50-day MA of 22.30, and below the 200-day MA of 24.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PBF.

PBF Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	76 Outperform	$51.40B	28.77	6.48%	3.64%	-7.61%	-66.18%
MPC	68 Neutral	$53.84B	24.62	12.37%	2.03%	-6.39%	-64.50%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$15.18B	9.41	6.29%	5.47%	4.23%	-67.01%
DINO	66 Neutral	$8.45B	35.13	-1.49%	5.58%	-11.17%	-109.60%
VLO	65 Neutral	$45.45B	51.16	3.73%	3.03%	-8.44%	-85.95%
PBF	54 Neutral	$2.78B	―	-18.01%	4.48%	-16.30%	-160.78%
DK	51 Neutral	$1.48B	―	-151.69%	5.20%	-29.23%	-931.43%

PBF Energy Corporate Events

PBF Energy Announces Leadership Transition in 2025

On March 10, 2025, PBF Energy announced the transition of Thomas J. Nimbley from Executive Chairman to non-executive Chairman of the Board, effective July 1, 2025, following his retirement from the executive role on June 30, 2025. Nimbley, who has been pivotal in the company’s growth from a start-up to a major independent refiner, will continue to serve on the Board, assuming his re-election at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. This transition reflects PBF Energy’s strategic leadership continuity and acknowledges Nimbley’s significant contributions to the company’s expansion and market positioning.