PBF Energy (PBF)
NYSE:PBF
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PBF Energy
(NYSE:PBF)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$52.00
▲(12.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent financial performance and deteriorated cash generation through the downcycle. Offsetting that, technicals show strong positive momentum, and the latest earnings call highlighted near-term catalysts (Martinez restart), sizable insurance recoveries, and meaningful cost-savings initiatives, though valuation support is limited given negative earnings.
Positive Factors
RBI cost savings
The RBI program has delivered meaningful, recurring operational savings ($230M realized, $350M targeted). Sustained run‑rate cuts reduce structural operating costs, improve margin resiliency through downcycles, and increase free cash flow potential to fund maintenance, dividends or growth.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Operating cash flow deterioration and consecutive negative free cash flows undermine internal funding capacity. Over months this raises reliance on external liquidity, constrains capital spending flexibility, limits dividend sustainability, and increases vulnerability if commodity margins remain weak.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
RBI cost savings
The RBI program has delivered meaningful, recurring operational savings ($230M realized, $350M targeted). Sustained run‑rate cuts reduce structural operating costs, improve margin resiliency through downcycles, and increase free cash flow potential to fund maintenance, dividends or growth.
Read all positive factors
PBF Energy (PBF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.42B
Dividend Yield4.14%
Average Volume (3M)4.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth-15.35%
EPS Growth-81.94%
CountryUS
Employees3,855
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding116,926,810
10 Day Avg. Volume4,318,446
30 Day Avg. Volume4,185,632
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)0.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.11
P/FCF Ratio-3.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-13.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda72.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.64Price Target Upside-14.51% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)4.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$31.46B
PBF Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel,...
How the Company Makes Money
PBF Energy primarily makes money by refining crude oil and other feedstocks into higher-value refined petroleum products and selling those products. Its core revenue stream is the sale of refined products (including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and...
PBF Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook driven by an imminent Martinez restart, sequential Q4 improvement (adjusted EBITDA $258M; adjusted EPS $0.49), large insurance recoveries ($894M in 2025), and substantial, realized RBI savings ($230M achieved, $350M targeted). Operational advantages from heavy/sour crude exposure and tight refining fundamentals (notably in California) were emphasized as durable tailwinds. Notable risks remain: Martinez rebuild costs and BI settlement timing, accounting adjustments (LCM inventory), renewable diesel margin pressure at SBR, RIN price volatility (~+100% year-over-year), and energy-price sensitivity (~$100M per $1/MMBtu). Overall, the positive operational and financial developments and clear near-term catalysts outweigh the outstanding uncertainties, supporting a constructive near-term outlook.Positive Updates
Martinez Restart Imminent
Construction completion this weekend with handoff to operations next week; methodical restart underway and expected to be fully operational in early March. Management emphasized industry-top quartile safety performance during rebuild and expects Martinez to contribute to a tighter California product market once online.
Negative Updates
Martinez Incident Costs and Ongoing Uncertainty
Martinez-related special items include $41,000,000 incremental OpEx in Q4 (total $164,000,000 YTD) related to temporary equipment and fire-related non-capital expenses. Approximately $273,000,000 of Q4 Martinez-related capital expenditures were excluded from reported Q4 CapEx. Insurance recoveries are large but remain unallocated and timing/amount of business interruption (BI) recoveries remain uncertain.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Martinez Restart Imminent
Construction completion this weekend with handoff to operations next week; methodical restart underway and expected to be fully operational in early March. Management emphasized industry-top quartile safety performance during rebuild and expects Martinez to contribute to a tighter California product market once online.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Martinez construction will finish this weekend, the plant will be turned over to operations next week and the refinery is expected to be fully operational in early March, with Q1 CapEx and working‑capital outflows tied to the restart and normal seasonal inventory patterns; Torrance mechanical work is complete and in startup. They highlighted $230,000,000 of achieved 2025 RBI run‑rate savings (stated as $0.50/barrel or ~ $160,000,000 OpEx reduction vs. 2024), identified an incremental $120,000,000 of run‑rate savings for a $350,000,000 total expected by year‑end, cut capital/turnaround spend by $70,000,000, expect >$35,000,000/year from centralized procurement, and have >1,300 RBI initiatives (avg ~ $0.5M each) with >500 implemented. Key financial metrics noted: Q4 adjusted EPS $0.49, adjusted EBITDA $258,000,000, cash from operations $367,000,000 (including ~ $80,000,000 working‑capital draw), Q4 cash CapEx $124,000,000 (ex‑Martinez) and ~ $273,000,000 Martinez‑related CapEx in Q4, 2025 CapEx ex‑Martinez ~ $629,000,000; quarter‑end cash $528,000,000, net debt ~ $1,600,000,000 (net‑debt‑to‑cap 28%), and liquidity ~ $2,300,000,000; board approved a $0.275/share quarterly dividend and paid $126,000,000 in dividends in 2025. Other call metrics: SBR produced ~16,700 bpd renewable diesel in Q4, Q4 included a $394,000,000 insurance recovery (total 2025 recoveries $894,000,000), Q4 special Martinez OpEx was $41,000,000 ( $164,000,000 YTD), and management noted sensitivities of roughly $100,000,000 per $1/MMBtu change in natural gas and ~$200,000,000 per $1 move in crude differentials on an annual basis.PBF Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 29.33B | 33.12B | 38.32B | 46.83B | 27.25B |
| Gross Profit | -571.00M | -372.20M | 2.40B | 4.68B | 887.20M |
| EBITDA | -253.60M | -2.40M | 3.62B | 4.36B | 1.13B |
| Net Income | -158.50M | -533.80M | 2.14B | 2.88B | 231.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.02B | 12.70B | 14.39B | 13.55B | 11.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 527.90M | 536.10M | 1.78B | 2.20B | 1.34B |
| Total Debt | 2.90B | 2.31B | 2.04B | 2.64B | 5.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.57B | 7.02B | 7.76B | 8.49B | 9.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.32B | 5.54B | 6.49B | 4.93B | 1.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -783.20M | -347.50M | 678.90M | 4.14B | 228.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -78.00M | 43.40M | 1.34B | 4.77B | 477.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -480.20M | -1.04B | -338.60M | -1.01B | -388.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 550.00M | -250.70M | -1.42B | -2.90B | -356.80M |
PBF Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
46.37
Price Trends
39.67
Positive
35.68
Positive
31.26
Positive
Market Momentum
2.34
Positive
54.80
Neutral
16.24
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.05, above the 50-day MA of 39.67, and above the 200-day MA of 31.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBF.
PBF Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.17B | 4.84 | 28.59% | ― | -10.11% | -7.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $6.22B | 9.20 | 15.50% | 8.03% | -3.51% | 3.75% | |
62 Neutral | $2.71B | 5.68 | -14.06% | 3.42% | -22.37% | -27.22% | |
62 Neutral | $11.03B | 14.84 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
57 Neutral | $5.42B | -19.51 | -3.05% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
47 Neutral | $3.27B | 94.69 | 4.13% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
PBF
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.