PBF Energy (PBF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.93B
• Dividend Yield: 6.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: -13.59%
• EPS Growth: -127.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,855
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -4.72
• Shares Outstanding: 115,648,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,943,359
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,631,397
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -13.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $20.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

PBF Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in income and cash flow, which are partially mitigated by positive developments from the earnings call and a moderate dividend yield. Technical indicators provide mixed signals, requiring cautious optimism. The company's ability to navigate financial and operational hurdles will be crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Cash and Liquidity

The combination of asset sale, working capital reversal, and business interruption proceeds is expected to bring in significant cash, reducing liquidity risk.

Cash Flow

Several cash flow items were better than expected, including the 2025 capex guide midpoint coming in significantly lower than consensus due to smaller discretionary projects being cut.

Insurance Payments

Management clarified Martinez fire insurance with a net upfront payment of $250MM to inflow, with further interim payments to be negotiated quarterly.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow

The forecast for negative free cash flow in a normalized future year makes the bull case for the stock challenging.

Operational Impact

PBF disclosed a Martinez fire from February 1 will result in unquantified downtime at the site that resulted in management excluding the asset from 1Q throughput guidance.

Operational Reliability

There is an expectation that there will not be a material improvement in PBF West Coast operational reliability, with risks of downtime outweighing closure-related surplus market margin in PADD5.

PBF Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products. The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It also offers various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated six oil refineries and related assets. PBF Energy Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

PBF Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining and sale of petroleum products. The company purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, processes them into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and lubricants, and sells these products to wholesale and retail customers. PBF Energy's logistics segment also contributes to its revenue by providing transportation and storage services for crude oil and refined products. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined products to various markets, leveraging strategic partnerships and contracts with suppliers and distributors to optimize pricing and supply chain efficiencies. Additionally, PBF Energy benefits from market conditions such as fluctuations in crude oil prices and refining margins, which can impact its profitability.

PBF Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

PBF Energy faces considerable financial challenges, as reflected in its recent performance. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet indicates fluctuating leverage and moderate stability. Cash flow challenges highlight the need for strategic cash management. Addressing these issues will be key to improving the company's financial standing in the volatile fossil fuel industry.

Income Statement

PBF Energy has experienced significant fluctuations in its income statement, with a sharp decline in revenue and profitability in 2024 compared to prior years. The gross profit margin turned negative in 2024, indicating cost challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant decline from 2023 to 2024. The absence of net income in 2024 and negative EBIT highlight the company's recent struggles with profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows mixed signals. While stockholders' equity remains relatively stable, the debt-to-equity ratio has been volatile, suggesting fluctuating leverage levels. The equity ratio indicates moderate financial stability, but the industry's capital-intensive nature poses inherent risks. The company's ability to maintain equity levels while managing debt will be crucial for future stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow from operations has decreased significantly, indicating potential challenges in generating cash from core activities. Free cash flow growth has also been negative, reflecting capital expenditure pressures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates a disconnect in 2024 due to the absence of net income. Managing cash flow effectively will be critical for future financial health.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
33.12B	38.32B	46.83B	27.25B	15.12B
	Gross Profit
-372.20M	2.40B	4.68B	887.20M	-1.63B
	EBIT
-699.00M	2.95B	4.15B	597.20M	-1.42B
	EBITDA
-2.40M	3.52B	4.31B	1.11B	-510.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-533.80M	2.14B	2.88B	315.50M	-1.33B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
536.10M	1.78B	2.20B	1.34B	1.61B
	Total Assets
12.70B	14.39B	13.55B	11.64B	10.50B
	Total Debt
2.30B	2.04B	2.64B	5.01B	5.58B
	Net Debt
1.77B	260.70M	438.30M	3.67B	3.97B
	Total Liabilities
7.02B	7.76B	8.49B	9.11B	8.30B
	Stockholders Equity
5.54B	6.49B	5.06B	2.53B	2.20B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
43.40M	678.90M	4.14B	228.20M	-827.80M
	Operating Cash Flow
43.40M	1.34B	4.77B	477.30M	-631.60M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.04B	-338.60M	-1.01B	-388.50M	-1.03B
	Financing Cash Flow
-249.30M	-1.42B	-2.90B	-356.80M	2.45B

PBF Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.73, below the 50-day MA of 18.77, and below the 200-day MA of 28.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PBF.

PBF Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLO	67 Neutral	$35.98B	40.50	3.73%	3.74%	-8.44%	-85.95%
MPC	67 Neutral	$42.90B	13.64	16.33%	2.52%	-6.70%	-57.85%
PSX	66 Neutral	$42.15B	23.60	6.48%	4.45%	-7.61%	-66.18%
DINO	65 Neutral	$5.89B	34.32	1.78%	6.65%	-10.58%	-90.08%
Sector *	56 Neutral	$6.92B	3.31	-4.49%	6.03%	-0.35%	-47.83%
PBF	52 Neutral	$1.93B	―	-8.87%	6.11%	-13.59%	-127.47%
DK	49 Neutral	$835.19M	―	-108.21%	7.80%	-28.68%	-4373.94%

PBF Energy Corporate Events

PBF Energy Announces Leadership Transition in 2025

On March 10, 2025, PBF Energy announced the transition of Thomas J. Nimbley from Executive Chairman to non-executive Chairman of the Board, effective July 1, 2025, following his retirement from the executive role on June 30, 2025. Nimbley, who has been pivotal in the company’s growth from a start-up to a major independent refiner, will continue to serve on the Board, assuming his re-election at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. This transition reflects PBF Energy’s strategic leadership continuity and acknowledges Nimbley’s significant contributions to the company’s expansion and market positioning.