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PBF Energy (PBF)
NYSE:PBF
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PBF Energy
(NYSE:PBF)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
▼(-3.11% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent financial performance and deteriorated cash flows despite a healthier leverage profile. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and neutral-to-positive momentum. Valuation is mixed due to a solid dividend but loss-driven negative P/E, while the latest earnings call improves the outlook via the imminent Martinez restart, cost-savings progress, and liquidity, tempered by restart-related uncertainty and near-term cash outflows.
Positive Factors
RBI cost-savings program
A large, multi-year RBI program that has already delivered meaningful run-rate savings improves structural cost competitiveness. Persistent OpEx and CapEx reductions lower the company’s breakeven in weak cycles, supporting margin recovery and freeing cash for reinvestment or deleveraging over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Heavy/sour crude processing advantage
Substantial installed capacity to run heavy/sour barrels gives PBF structural exposure to widening crude differentials. In a market where sour margins can widen, this asset mix produces recurring economic upside that is durable across cycles, enhancing long-term margin optionality and competitive positioning.
Stronger liquidity and capital posture
Improved net-debt-to-capital and sizeable liquidity provide a durable financial buffer through cyclical troughs. This position supports restart and turnaround activity, maintains the dividend, and reduces near-term refinancing risk, enabling the company to execute operational improvements without immediate capital-market dependence.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation / negative FCF
Sustained negative free cash flow erodes internal funding for maintenance, growth, and dividends, forcing reliance on liquidity sources. Over a 2–6 month horizon this constrains flexibility for repairs, turnarounds, or strategic investments and elevates sensitivity to commodity and working‑capital swings.
High earnings cyclicality and recent deterioration
The refining business’s pronounced cycle produced a steep profitability swing, highlighting structural earnings volatility. Such variability weakens predictability of returns and cash flow, complicating capital allocation and making near-term operational plans highly dependent on commodity spreads and market timing.
Renewable fuel margin & compliance volatility (RINs)
Volatile RIN pricing and feedstock/regulatory uncertainty create a structural headwind for renewable-diesel economics. This raises ongoing compliance and margin risk for PBF’s renewables exposure, making cash flows and operating returns in that segment less predictable and increasing overall business sensitivity to policy shifts.
PBF Energy (PBF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.10B
Dividend Yield4.14%
Average Volume (3M)2.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth-15.35%
EPS Growth-81.94%
CountryUS
Employees3,855
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding116,926,810
10 Day Avg. Volume2,765,588
30 Day Avg. Volume2,806,280
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)0.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.11
P/FCF Ratio-3.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.58
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-11.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda60.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.70Price Target Upside-6.81% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.70B
PBF Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products. The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It also offers various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated six oil refineries and related assets. PBF Energy Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyPBF Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining and sale of petroleum products. The company purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, which it processes into a variety of refined products. Key revenue streams include the sale of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other petrochemicals to wholesalers, retailers, and industrial customers. Additionally, PBF earns income from logistics services related to the transportation and storage of refined products. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Economic factors such as crude oil prices, refining margins, and regulatory changes in the energy sector also significantly impact PBF's earnings.
PBF Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook driven by an imminent Martinez restart, sequential Q4 improvement (adjusted EBITDA $258M; adjusted EPS $0.49), large insurance recoveries ($894M in 2025), and substantial, realized RBI savings ($230M achieved, $350M targeted). Operational advantages from heavy/sour crude exposure and tight refining fundamentals (notably in California) were emphasized as durable tailwinds. Notable risks remain: Martinez rebuild costs and BI settlement timing, accounting adjustments (LCM inventory), renewable diesel margin pressure at SBR, RIN price volatility (~+100% year-over-year), and energy-price sensitivity (~$100M per $1/MMBtu). Overall, the positive operational and financial developments and clear near-term catalysts outweigh the outstanding uncertainties, supporting a constructive near-term outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Martinez Restart Imminent
Construction completion this weekend with handoff to operations next week; methodical restart underway and expected to be fully operational in early March. Management emphasized industry-top quartile safety performance during rebuild and expects Martinez to contribute to a tighter California product market once online.
Fourth Quarter Financial Results (ex. special items)
Adjusted net income of $0.49 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $258,000,000 for Q4. Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $367,000,000 (included an ~ $80,000,000 working capital draw related to inventory moves and falling commodity prices).
Large Insurance Recoveries Received
Received a $394,000,000 unallocated insurance payment in Q4, bringing total 2025 insurance recoveries to $894,000,000 (net of deductibles/retention). Management expects further potential interim payments as claims are finalized.
Significant RBI (Refinery Business Improvement) Savings Achieved
Achieved $230,000,000 of annualized run-rate savings in 2025 (equivalent to ~$0.50/bbl or ~$160,000,000 reduction in OpEx vs 2024 benchmark) and $70,000,000 of reduced capital/turnaround expenditures. Identified an additional $120,000,000 of run-rate savings for a total expected $350,000,000 by year-end 2026. RBI program identified >1,300 initiatives and has implemented >500 to date (~38% implemented).
Procurement and Operational Efficiency Wins
Centrally led procurement initiative expected to deliver >$35,000,000 of annual savings. Energy efficiency and turnaround discipline cited as major drivers of OpEx and CapEx savings (turnaround man-hours up ~30% while costs up ~10% year-over-year in current heavy-turnaround cycle).
Operational Leverage to Heavy/Sour Crude Differentials
PBF processes ~55–60% medium/heavy sour barrels (approx. 200,000,000 barrels/year). Management stated a $1 improvement in relevant crude differentials can equate to roughly $200,000,000 of annual benefit to the business, and widening sour differentials (Venezuela barrels & OPEC+ taper) are a material tailwind.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Position
Ended Q4 with $528,000,000 cash, ~ $1,600,000,000 net debt, net debt-to-capital of 28%, and estimated liquidity of approximately $2,300,000,000 (cash + borrowing capacity under ABL at current commodity prices). Board approved regular quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share; cash dividends paid totaled $126,000,000 in 2025.
Renewable Diesel Production at SBR
St. Bernard Renewables (SBR) produced an average of 16,700 barrels per day of renewable diesel in Q4, providing a strategic hedge to RIN exposure and participation in the growing renewables market despite near-term margin headwinds.
Negative Updates
Martinez Incident Costs and Ongoing Uncertainty
Martinez-related special items include $41,000,000 incremental OpEx in Q4 (total $164,000,000 YTD) related to temporary equipment and fire-related non-capital expenses. Approximately $273,000,000 of Q4 Martinez-related capital expenditures were excluded from reported Q4 CapEx. Insurance recoveries are large but remain unallocated and timing/amount of business interruption (BI) recoveries remain uncertain.
Large Non-Cash / Accounting Impacts
Q4 included a $313,000,000 lower-of-cost-or-market (LCM) inventory adjustment and a $2,000,000 loss related to PBF’s 50% share of SBR’s LCM adjustment for the quarter. These special items materially impacted reported GAAP results and add volatility to near-term reported earnings.
SBR Earnings Pressure from Feedstock and Policy Volatility
PBF recorded a $21,000,000 loss related to its equity investment in SBR in Q4. While credit pricing improved, higher feedstock costs and tariffs/regulatory uncertainty in renewable fuels compressed margins in the quarter.
RINs Volatility and Increased Compliance Costs
RIN (Renewable Identification Number) prices have approximately doubled over the last ~13 months (~+100%), increasing compliance cost volatility. Management characterizes the RIN balance as a rolling working capital obligation, but higher RIN prices still pressure fuel economics and pricing dynamics.
Near-Term Cash Outflows and Heavy Turnaround Activity
Expect first-quarter CapEx and working capital outflows primarily related to Martinez restart and seasonal inventory builds. 2026 is a heavy turnaround year (higher man-hours and spend), causing lumpiness in CapEx and maintenance spend; management expects activity to normalize in 2027–2029.
Energy Cost Sensitivity and Inflation Risk
Management stated sensitivity of ~ $100,000,000 of incremental cost per $1/MMBtu increase in natural gas price, and natural gas assumptions for 2026 are higher than 2024, creating input-cost risk despite RBI savings being net of inflation assumptions.
Company Guidance
Management guided that Martinez construction will finish this weekend, the plant will be turned over to operations next week and the refinery is expected to be fully operational in early March, with Q1 CapEx and working‑capital outflows tied to the restart and normal seasonal inventory patterns; Torrance mechanical work is complete and in startup. They highlighted $230,000,000 of achieved 2025 RBI run‑rate savings (stated as $0.50/barrel or ~ $160,000,000 OpEx reduction vs. 2024), identified an incremental $120,000,000 of run‑rate savings for a $350,000,000 total expected by year‑end, cut capital/turnaround spend by $70,000,000, expect >$35,000,000/year from centralized procurement, and have >1,300 RBI initiatives (avg ~ $0.5M each) with >500 implemented. Key financial metrics noted: Q4 adjusted EPS $0.49, adjusted EBITDA $258,000,000, cash from operations $367,000,000 (including ~ $80,000,000 working‑capital draw), Q4 cash CapEx $124,000,000 (ex‑Martinez) and ~ $273,000,000 Martinez‑related CapEx in Q4, 2025 CapEx ex‑Martinez ~ $629,000,000; quarter‑end cash $528,000,000, net debt ~ $1,600,000,000 (net‑debt‑to‑cap 28%), and liquidity ~ $2,300,000,000; board approved a $0.275/share quarterly dividend and paid $126,000,000 in dividends in 2025. Other call metrics: SBR produced ~16,700 bpd renewable diesel in Q4, Q4 included a $394,000,000 insurance recovery (total 2025 recoveries $894,000,000), Q4 special Martinez OpEx was $41,000,000 ( $164,000,000 YTD), and management noted sensitivities of roughly $100,000,000 per $1/MMBtu change in natural gas and ~$200,000,000 per $1 move in crude differentials on an annual basis.PBF Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial results and cash generation weakened sharply in 2024–2025, with losses, negative margins, and negative free cash flow. The balance sheet is healthier than prior cycles with moderate leverage, but near-term earnings power and cash flow quality are pressured and highly cyclical.Income Statement
Results have deteriorated sharply from peak-cycle profitability in 2022–2023 to losses in 2024–2025. Revenue declined materially over the last two years (down ~14% in 2024 and ~72% in 2025), and profitability swung from solid positive margins in 2022–2023 to negative gross and net margins in 2024–2025. While the business can generate strong earnings in favorable refining conditions, the recent two-year reset highlights high cyclicality and weak near-term earnings power.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is moderate and improved versus 2020–2021: debt-to-equity moved from very elevated levels (above 2–3x in 2020–2021) to ~0.3–0.5x in 2022–2025, with equity remaining sizable. Total debt rose in 2025, but overall capitalization still looks reasonable for the industry. The key weakness is the return profile: returns on equity turned negative in 2024–2025 after strong profitability in 2022–2023, reflecting earnings volatility rather than balance sheet stress.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation weakened significantly as the cycle turned. Operating cash flow was strong in 2022–2023 but fell to near breakeven in 2024 and turned negative in 2025, while free cash flow was negative in both 2024 and 2025 and worsened meaningfully in 2025. This points to tighter internally generated funding capacity in the near term and higher reliance on liquidity/financing if weak conditions persist.28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 29.33B | 33.12B | 38.32B | 46.83B | 27.25B |
| Gross Profit | -571.00M | -372.20M | 2.40B | 4.68B | 887.20M |
| EBITDA | -253.60M | -2.40M | 3.62B | 4.36B | 1.13B |
| Net Income | -158.50M | -533.80M | 2.14B | 2.88B | 231.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.02B | 12.70B | 14.39B | 13.55B | 11.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 527.90M | 536.10M | 1.78B | 2.20B | 1.34B |
| Total Debt | 2.90B | 2.31B | 2.04B | 2.64B | 5.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.57B | 7.02B | 7.76B | 8.49B | 9.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.32B | 5.54B | 6.49B | 4.93B | 1.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -783.20M | -347.50M | 678.90M | 4.14B | 228.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -78.00M | 43.40M | 1.34B | 4.77B | 477.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -480.20M | -1.04B | -338.60M | -1.01B | -388.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 550.00M | -250.70M | -1.42B | -2.90B | -356.80M |
PBF Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
35.09
Price Trends
31.29
Positive
32.25
Positive
28.06
Positive
Market Momentum
0.69
Positive
57.37
Neutral
30.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.17, above the 50-day MA of 31.29, and above the 200-day MA of 28.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBF.
PBF Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $5.85B | 10.97 | 18.26% | 8.03% | -3.51% | 3.75% | |
68 Neutral | $9.13B | 15.97 | 6.19% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
67 Neutral | $2.06B | 8.63 | 17.81% | ― | -10.11% | -7.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
54 Neutral | $4.10B | -23.95 | -2.92% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
47 Neutral | $2.18B | 80.83 | 3.77% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% | |
45 Neutral | $2.04B | -4.16 | -115.95% | 3.42% | -22.37% | -27.22% |
* Energy Sector Average
PBF
PBF Energy
35.09
13.20
60.29%
CVI
CVR Energy
21.71
1.17
5.70%
DK
Delek US Holdings
34.00
18.42
118.19%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
49.64
14.91
42.94%
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes SA
5.36
2.70
101.13%
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
41.03
25.60
165.91%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.