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Cvr Energy Inc. (CVI)
NYSE:CVI

CVR Energy (CVI) AI Stock Analysis

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CVR Energy

(NYSE:CVI)

46Neutral
CVR Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial performance challenges, particularly in revenue and margin declines. Technical analysis suggests bearish trends, while valuation highlights risks of overvaluation despite a high dividend yield. Recent earnings call details reinforce these concerns, with notable losses and operational challenges in key segments.
Positive Factors
Fertilizer Segment Performance
The Fertilizer segment is expected to see sequentially higher EBITDA due to seasonal strength in ammonia.
Liquidity Enhancement
The company added ~$400mm in liquidity in December with a pipeline sale and a new term loan.
Negative Factors
Coffeyville Turnaround Impact
The large turnaround at Coffeyville will keep results subdued in the short term.
Dividend Suspension
CVI suspended the quarterly dividend, noting the uncertainty on how long the current refining margin conditions will persist.

CVR Energy (CVI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

CVR Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCVR Energy, Inc. is a diversified holding company primarily engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries. Operating through its subsidiaries, CVR Refining and CVR Partners, the company focuses on producing high-quality refined products and nitrogen-based fertilizers. Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, CVR Energy's refining segment processes crude oil to produce gasoline, diesel fuel, and other petroleum-based products, while the fertilizer segment produces nitrogen fertilizers used in agriculture.
How the Company Makes MoneyCVR Energy generates revenue through two main segments: petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing. In the petroleum refining segment, the company earns money by processing crude oil into refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then sold to wholesale distributors, retailers, and other end-users. Key factors contributing to the revenue in this segment include refining margins, crude oil price differentials, and operational efficiencies. In the nitrogen fertilizer segment, CVR Partners produces and sells ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) fertilizers. Revenue in this segment is influenced by agricultural demand, fertilizer prices, and natural gas costs, as natural gas is a primary feedstock in fertilizer production. Strategic partnerships and market positioning also play a role in enhancing the company's revenue streams.

CVR Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CVR Energy faces challenges with declining revenues and margins, especially gross profit and net profit margins turning sharply negative or low, impacting its overall profitability. While the elimination of debt strengthens the balance sheet, reduced cash flows indicate potential operational difficulties. The company needs to address revenue growth and margin improvement to enhance financial performance.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company experienced a significant decline in revenue from $9.25 billion in 2023 to $7.61 billion in TTM, indicating revenue contraction. Gross profit margin turned negative at -18.8% for TTM, a concerning indicator. Net profit margin plummeted to just 0.09% in TTM from 8.3% in 2023, showing profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased, highlighting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows improvement in leverage and liquidity. The company has cleared its total debt, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, enhancing financial stability. Stockholders' equity ratio improved to 16.49% from 18.0% in 2023. However, the total assets have decreased, indicating possible asset reduction or write-offs.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Operating cash flow decreased significantly from $948 million in 2023 to $306 million in TTM, indicating reduced cash generation from operations. The free cash flow also declined, but the company managed to maintain a positive free cash flow of $168 million. The ratio of operating cash flow to net income is robust but declined compared to previous periods.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
7.61B9.25B10.90B7.24B3.93B
Gross Profit
197.00M1.27B1.13B218.00M-189.00M
EBIT
58.00M1.12B963.00M87.00M-333.00M
EBITDA
394.00M1.44B1.26B369.00M-7.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
7.00M769.00M644.00M74.00M-320.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
987.00M581.00M510.00M510.00M667.00M
Total Assets
4.26B4.71B4.12B3.91B3.98B
Total Debt
1.94B2.20B1.61B1.67B1.71B
Net Debt
948.00M1.62B1.10B1.16B1.04B
Total Liabilities
3.48B3.67B3.59B3.35B2.96B
Stockholders Equity
703.00M847.00M531.00M553.00M1.02B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
172.00M686.00M693.00M-159.00M-193.00M
Operating Cash Flow
404.00M948.00M967.00M90.00M90.00M
Investing Cash Flow
-121.00M-239.00M-271.00M-423.00M-423.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-482.00M-40.00M-696.00M-315.00M355.00M

CVR Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.20
Price Trends
50DMA
18.90
Positive
100DMA
19.04
Positive
200DMA
20.92
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.05
Negative
RSI
56.10
Neutral
STOCH
73.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.91, above the 50-day MA of 18.90, and below the 200-day MA of 20.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVI.

CVR Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
SUSUN
74
Outperform
$8.71B9.5128.38%6.16%-1.63%80.11%
VLVLO
67
Neutral
$37.25B41.933.73%3.78%-8.44%-85.95%
64
Neutral
$6.03B35.131.78%6.39%-11.17%-109.53%
56
Neutral
$6.99B3.72-4.39%5.96%-0.24%-48.44%
PBPBF
51
Neutral
$1.93B-8.87%6.30%-13.59%-127.47%
DKDK
49
Neutral
$853.13M-108.21%7.52%-28.68%-4373.94%
CVCVI
46
Neutral
$1.95B268.82-27.14%10.34%-16.21%-130.18%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CVI
CVR Energy
20.20
-8.24
-28.97%
DK
Delek US Holdings
13.79
-11.78
-46.07%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
32.01
-19.89
-38.32%
VLO
Valero Energy
118.93
-33.39
-21.92%
PBF
PBF Energy
17.53
-32.60
-65.03%
SUN
Sunoco
57.94
5.52
10.53%

CVR Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 7.96%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted challenges in the Petroleum segment and a significant net loss, but there were improvements in the Fertilizer and Renewables segments. The company's ongoing issues with the EPA and RINs expenses were notable lowlights. Overall, the sentiment of the call is slightly negative, with lowlights outweighing the highlights.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improvement in Fertilizer Segment
Adjusted EBITDA in the Fertilizer segment was $53 million for the first quarter with increased UAN sales volumes and higher ammonia sales prices driving the improvement compared to the prior year.
Renewables Segment Positive EBITDA
The Renewables segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of $3 million for the first quarter, an improvement from the negative $5 million in the first quarter of 2024, driven by higher RIN prices and reduced feedstock basis.
Successful Turnaround Completion
The planned turnaround at Coffeyville refinery was completed, and the refinery is ramping back to full rates over the course of the second quarter.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Net Loss
The company reported a consolidated net loss of $105 million and a loss per share of $1.22 for the first quarter.
Negative Petroleum Segment EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA in the Petroleum segment was a loss of $30 million for the first quarter, driven by reduced throughput volumes due to planned and unplanned downtime at Coffeyville.
Increased RINs Expense
Net RINs expense for the quarter was $27 million or $2.47 per barrel, which negatively impacted the tax rate by approximately 14%.
Challenges with EPA Compliance
The company is facing ongoing challenges with the EPA regarding small refinery exemptions, with multiple outstanding petitions and a significant accrued RFS obligation.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, CVR Energy reported a consolidated net loss of $105 million and a loss per share of $1.22, with an EBITDA loss of $61 million. This was impacted by a planned turnaround at the Coffeyville refinery, unplanned events, and an unfavorable mark-to-market impact of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) obligation. Total throughput for the Petroleum segment was approximately 125,000 barrels per day with a light product yield of 95%. Group 3211 benchmark cracks averaged $17.65 per barrel, down from $19.55 the previous year. Average Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices in the first quarter were approximately $0.84, a 25% increase from the prior year, and net RINs expense was $27 million or $2.47 per barrel. In the Renewables segment, they processed about 14 million gallons of vegetable fuel oil with a gross margin of $1.13 per gallon, up from $0.65 in 2024, despite the expiration of the blender's tax credit. The Fertilizer segment saw higher ammonia prices and strong demand, with a $53 million adjusted EBITDA. Looking ahead, CVR Energy estimates second-quarter throughput at 160,000 to 180,000 barrels per day for the Petroleum segment, with direct operating expenses of $105 million to $115 million.

CVR Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
CVR Energy Reports Q1 2025 Net Loss of $123M
Negative
Apr 28, 2025

CVR Energy reported a challenging first quarter in 2025, with a net loss of $123 million, compared to a net income of $82 million in the same period of 2024. The company’s performance was significantly impacted by planned and unplanned downtime at the Coffeyville refinery, resulting in a substantial decrease in throughput and refining margins. Despite these setbacks, CVR Partners, the company’s nitrogen fertilizer segment, achieved solid results, with increased ammonia production and a declared cash distribution of $2.26 per common unit. The Renewables Segment also showed improvement, reporting a net income of less than $1 million, driven by increased production and sales volumes.

Spark’s Take on CVI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CVI is a Neutral.

CVR Energy’s stock faces several challenges, primarily due to declining financial performance, bearish technical indicators, and a high P/E ratio indicating potential overvaluation. The company’s strategic focus on deleveraging and improving the renewables segment could provide some long-term benefits. However, immediate concerns such as operational disruptions and market challenges in the refining sector weigh heavily on the stock, resulting in a cautious overall score.

To see Spark’s full report on CVI stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes
CVR Energy Appoints New Board Members, Expands Board
Neutral
Apr 4, 2025

On March 31, 2025, CVR Energy appointed Robert E. Flint and Colin Kwak to its Board of Directors, with Flint becoming the Chairperson. Both are affiliated with Icahn Enterprises, which controls a majority stake in CVR Energy. Their appointments follow the resignation of Ted Papapostolou for personal reasons, not related to any company disagreements. The board expanded from seven to eight members, reflecting these changes.

Business Operations and Strategy
CVR Energy Unveils New Investor Presentation for 2025
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

CVR Energy, Inc. announced that starting March 3, 2025, it will use a new Investor Presentation containing forward-looking statements in meetings with investors and analysts. This presentation aims to provide insights into the company’s future operations and strategic priorities, although it is not intended to be considered material or complete for investment decisions. The announcement highlights CVR Energy’s commitment to transparency with its stakeholders while cautioning against undue reliance on forward-looking statements due to inherent uncertainties.

Private Placements and FinancingFinancial Disclosures
CVR Energy Reports Decline in 2024 Financial Performance
Negative
Feb 18, 2025

CVR Energy reported a significant decline in its financial performance for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024 compared to 2023, with net income attributable to stockholders dropping to $7 million for the year. The company enhanced its liquidity by $408 million in the fourth quarter through a Term Loan and the sale of its interest in Midway Pipeline. Despite facing challenges in the refining segment due to reduced crack spreads and throughput, the company anticipates improvement as the summer driving season approaches. The renewables segment showed improvements in EBITDA and margin due to lower feedstock costs and better operational efficiency, while the nitrogen fertilizer segment saw a decrease in net income and EBITDA compared to 2023.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.