CVR Energy (CVI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.40B
• Dividend Yield: 8.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 268.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: -16.21%
• EPS Growth: -130.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,595
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 100,530,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 917,430
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,028,706
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $21.50
• Price Target Upside: -8.51% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

CVR Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial performance challenges, particularly in revenue and margin declines. Technical analysis suggests bearish trends, while valuation highlights risks of overvaluation despite a high dividend yield. Recent earnings call details reinforce these concerns, with notable losses and operational challenges in key segments.

Positive Factors

Fertilizer Segment

The Fertilizer segment is expected to see sequentially higher EBITDA due to seasonal strength in ammonia.

Liquidity Improvement

The company added ~$400mm in liquidity in December with a pipeline sale and a new term loan.

Renewables Performance

CVI posted a beat vs. lowered expectations for 4Q24, with particularly strong results in Renewables.

Negative Factors

Coffeyville Turnaround

The 1Q25 outlook implies a more front-loaded impact of the Coffeyville turnaround, which remains an overhang to earnings in the near term.

Dividend Reinstatement

Management needs to get past the turnarounds and weak refining outlook to reinstate the dividend, which is a key overhang on the stock.

Refining Volume Outlook

A more front-loaded impact of the Coffeyville turnaround suggests lower refining volume outlook combined with higher capex.

CVR Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CVR Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing activities in the United States. It operates in two segments, Petroleum and Nitrogen Fertilizer. The Petroleum segment refines and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, and other refined products. It also owns and operates a coking medium-sour crude oil refinery in southeast Kansas; and a crude oil refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma, as well as supporting logistics assets. This segment primarily serves retailers, railroads, farm co-operatives, and other refiners/marketers. The Nitrogen Fertilizer segment owns and operates a nitrogen fertilizer plant in North America that utilizes a pet coke gasification process to produce nitrogen fertilizer products; and a nitrogen fertilizer facility in East Dubuque, Illinois that produces nitrogen fertilizers in the form of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN). It primarily markets UAN products to agricultural customers; and ammonia products to agricultural and industrial customers. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas. CVR Energy, Inc. is a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P.

How the Company Makes Money

CVR Energy generates revenue through two main segments: petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing. In the petroleum refining segment, the company earns money by processing crude oil into refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then sold to wholesale distributors, retailers, and other end-users. Key factors contributing to the revenue in this segment include refining margins, crude oil price differentials, and operational efficiencies. In the nitrogen fertilizer segment, CVR Partners produces and sells ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) fertilizers. Revenue in this segment is influenced by agricultural demand, fertilizer prices, and natural gas costs, as natural gas is a primary feedstock in fertilizer production. Strategic partnerships and market positioning also play a role in enhancing the company's revenue streams.

CVR Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CVR Energy faces challenges with declining revenues and margins, especially gross profit and net profit margins turning sharply negative or low, impacting its overall profitability. While the elimination of debt strengthens the balance sheet, reduced cash flows indicate potential operational difficulties. The company needs to address revenue growth and margin improvement to enhance financial performance.

Income Statement

The company experienced a significant decline in revenue from $9.25 billion in 2023 to $7.61 billion in TTM, indicating revenue contraction. Gross profit margin turned negative at -18.8% for TTM, a concerning indicator. Net profit margin plummeted to just 0.09% in TTM from 8.3% in 2023, showing profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows improvement in leverage and liquidity. The company has cleared its total debt, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, enhancing financial stability. Stockholders' equity ratio improved to 16.49% from 18.0% in 2023. However, the total assets have decreased, indicating possible asset reduction or write-offs.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow decreased significantly from $948 million in 2023 to $306 million in TTM, indicating reduced cash generation from operations. The free cash flow also declined, but the company managed to maintain a positive free cash flow of $168 million. The ratio of operating cash flow to net income is robust but declined compared to previous periods.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
7.39B	7.61B	9.25B	10.90B	7.24B	3.93B
	Gross Profit
-32.00M	197.00M	1.27B	1.13B	218.00M	-189.00M
	EBIT
-173.00M	58.00M	1.12B	963.00M	87.00M	-333.00M
	EBITDA
127.00M	394.00M	1.44B	1.26B	369.00M	-7.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-198.00M	7.00M	769.00M	644.00M	74.00M	-320.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
695.00M	987.00M	581.00M	510.00M	510.00M	667.00M
	Total Assets
4.25B	4.26B	4.71B	4.12B	3.91B	3.98B
	Total Debt
0.00	1.94B	2.20B	1.61B	1.67B	1.71B
	Net Debt
1.24B	948.00M	1.62B	1.10B	1.16B	1.04B
	Total Liabilities
3.48B	3.48B	3.67B	3.59B	3.35B	2.96B
	Stockholders Equity
580.00M	703.00M	847.00M	531.00M	553.00M	1.02B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-160.00M	172.00M	686.00M	693.00M	-159.00M	-193.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
32.00M	404.00M	948.00M	967.00M	90.00M	90.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-148.00M	-121.00M	-239.00M	-271.00M	-423.00M	-423.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
167.00M	-482.00M	-40.00M	-696.00M	-315.00M	355.00M

CVR Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.72, above the 50-day MA of 20.02, and above the 200-day MA of 20.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVI.

CVR Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUN	75 Outperform	$8.39B	9.87	26.11%	6.40%	-3.59%	22.77%
DINO	72 Outperform	$6.70B	35.13	-1.49%	5.64%	-11.17%	-109.60%
VLO	68 Neutral	$40.26B	45.32	3.73%	3.37%	-8.44%	-85.95%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.06B	3.07	-3.45%	5.82%	0.59%	-50.58%
PBF	55 Neutral	$2.35B	―	-18.01%	5.08%	-16.30%	-160.78%
DK	51 Neutral	$1.18B	―	-151.69%	5.16%	-29.23%	-931.43%
CVI	46 Neutral	$2.40B	268.82	-27.14%	8.37%	-16.21%	-130.18%

CVR Energy Corporate Events

CVR Energy Reports Q1 2025 Net Loss of $123M

CVR Energy reported a challenging first quarter in 2025, with a net loss of $123 million, compared to a net income of $82 million in the same period of 2024. The company’s performance was significantly impacted by planned and unplanned downtime at the Coffeyville refinery, resulting in a substantial decrease in throughput and refining margins. Despite these setbacks, CVR Partners, the company’s nitrogen fertilizer segment, achieved solid results, with increased ammonia production and a declared cash distribution of $2.26 per common unit. The Renewables Segment also showed improvement, reporting a net income of less than $1 million, driven by increased production and sales volumes.

CVR Energy Appoints New Board Members, Expands Board

On March 31, 2025, CVR Energy appointed Robert E. Flint and Colin Kwak to its Board of Directors, with Flint becoming the Chairperson. Both are affiliated with Icahn Enterprises, which controls a majority stake in CVR Energy. Their appointments follow the resignation of Ted Papapostolou for personal reasons, not related to any company disagreements. The board expanded from seven to eight members, reflecting these changes.

CVR Energy Unveils New Investor Presentation for 2025

CVR Energy, Inc. announced that starting March 3, 2025, it will use a new Investor Presentation containing forward-looking statements in meetings with investors and analysts. This presentation aims to provide insights into the company’s future operations and strategic priorities, although it is not intended to be considered material or complete for investment decisions. The announcement highlights CVR Energy’s commitment to transparency with its stakeholders while cautioning against undue reliance on forward-looking statements due to inherent uncertainties.