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Cvr Energy Inc. (CVI)
NYSE:CVI

CVR Energy (CVI) AI Stock Analysis

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CVR Energy

(NYSE:CVI)

Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▼(-4.59%Downside)
CVR Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges with declining revenues and negative margins. While technical indicators show strong momentum, overbought conditions could lead to a pullback. The high dividend yield may not be sustainable given the company's current profitability issues. Improvements in certain segments provide some optimism, but broader challenges remain.
Positive Factors
Fertilizer Segment
The Fertilizer segment is expected to see sequentially higher EBITDA due to seasonal strength in ammonia.
Financial Performance
CVI posted a beat against lowered expectations for the fourth quarter, with particularly strong results in the Renewables segment.
Liquidity
CVI added approximately $400 million in liquidity with the recent sale of its 50% interest in Midway Pipeline and a new $325 million term loan.
Negative Factors
Dividend Reinstatement
Management needs to get past the turnarounds and weak refining outlook to reinstate the dividend, which is a key overhang on the stock.
Earnings
The large turnaround at Coffeyville will keep results subdued in the short term.
Refining Outlook
A more front-loaded impact of the Coffeyville turnaround suggests a lower refining volume outlook combined with higher capital expenditures.

CVR Energy (CVI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CVR Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCVR Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing activities in the United States. It operates in two segments, Petroleum and Nitrogen Fertilizer. The Petroleum segment refines and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, and other refined products. It also owns and operates a coking medium-sour crude oil refinery in southeast Kansas; and a crude oil refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma, as well as supporting logistics assets. This segment primarily serves retailers, railroads, farm co-operatives, and other refiners/marketers. The Nitrogen Fertilizer segment owns and operates a nitrogen fertilizer plant in North America that utilizes a pet coke gasification process to produce nitrogen fertilizer products; and a nitrogen fertilizer facility in East Dubuque, Illinois that produces nitrogen fertilizers in the form of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN). It primarily markets UAN products to agricultural customers; and ammonia products to agricultural and industrial customers. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas. CVR Energy, Inc. is a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P.
How the Company Makes MoneyCVR Energy generates revenue through two main business segments: petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing. The petroleum refining segment involves the production and sale of high-value transportation fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, and other refined products. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined products to wholesale customers, retailers, and directly to consumers through various channels. The nitrogen fertilizer segment involves the production and sale of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), which are essential for agricultural crop production. Sales in this segment are primarily made to agricultural retailers and distributors. CVR Energy's earnings are significantly influenced by factors such as crude oil prices, refining margins, and agricultural demand, as well as strategic partnerships and market conditions.

CVR Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 73.65%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted challenges in the Petroleum segment and a significant net loss, but there were improvements in the Fertilizer and Renewables segments. The company's ongoing issues with the EPA and RINs expenses were notable lowlights. Overall, the sentiment of the call is slightly negative, with lowlights outweighing the highlights.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improvement in Fertilizer Segment
Adjusted EBITDA in the Fertilizer segment was $53 million for the first quarter with increased UAN sales volumes and higher ammonia sales prices driving the improvement compared to the prior year.
Renewables Segment Positive EBITDA
The Renewables segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of $3 million for the first quarter, an improvement from the negative $5 million in the first quarter of 2024, driven by higher RIN prices and reduced feedstock basis.
Successful Turnaround Completion
The planned turnaround at Coffeyville refinery was completed, and the refinery is ramping back to full rates over the course of the second quarter.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Net Loss
The company reported a consolidated net loss of $105 million and a loss per share of $1.22 for the first quarter.
Negative Petroleum Segment EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA in the Petroleum segment was a loss of $30 million for the first quarter, driven by reduced throughput volumes due to planned and unplanned downtime at Coffeyville.
Increased RINs Expense
Net RINs expense for the quarter was $27 million or $2.47 per barrel, which negatively impacted the tax rate by approximately 14%.
Challenges with EPA Compliance
The company is facing ongoing challenges with the EPA regarding small refinery exemptions, with multiple outstanding petitions and a significant accrued RFS obligation.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, CVR Energy reported a consolidated net loss of $105 million and a loss per share of $1.22, with an EBITDA loss of $61 million. This was impacted by a planned turnaround at the Coffeyville refinery, unplanned events, and an unfavorable mark-to-market impact of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) obligation. Total throughput for the Petroleum segment was approximately 125,000 barrels per day with a light product yield of 95%. Group 3211 benchmark cracks averaged $17.65 per barrel, down from $19.55 the previous year. Average Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices in the first quarter were approximately $0.84, a 25% increase from the prior year, and net RINs expense was $27 million or $2.47 per barrel. In the Renewables segment, they processed about 14 million gallons of vegetable fuel oil with a gross margin of $1.13 per gallon, up from $0.65 in 2024, despite the expiration of the blender's tax credit. The Fertilizer segment saw higher ammonia prices and strong demand, with a $53 million adjusted EBITDA. Looking ahead, CVR Energy estimates second-quarter throughput at 160,000 to 180,000 barrels per day for the Petroleum segment, with direct operating expenses of $105 million to $115 million.

CVR Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CVR Energy is facing challenges with declining revenues and margins, particularly with gross profit and net profit margins turning sharply negative or low, impacting its overall profitability. Despite the elimination of debt strengthening the balance sheet, reduced cash flows indicate potential operational difficulties. Revenue growth and margin improvement are necessary to enhance financial performance.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company experienced a significant decline in revenue from $9.25 billion in 2023 to $7.61 billion in TTM, indicating revenue contraction. Gross profit margin turned negative at -18.8% for TTM, a concerning indicator. Net profit margin plummeted to just 0.09% in TTM from 8.3% in 2023, showing profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased, highlighting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows improvement in leverage and liquidity. The company has cleared its total debt, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, enhancing financial stability. Stockholders' equity ratio improved to 16.49% from 18.0% in 2023. However, the total assets have decreased, indicating possible asset reduction or write-offs.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Operating cash flow decreased significantly from $948 million in 2023 to $306 million in TTM, indicating reduced cash generation from operations. The free cash flow also declined, but the company managed to maintain a positive free cash flow of $168 million. The ratio of operating cash flow to net income is robust but declined compared to previous periods.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.39B7.61B9.25B10.90B7.24B3.93B
Gross Profit-32.00M197.00M1.27B1.13B218.00M-189.00M
EBITDA127.00M394.00M1.44B1.26B369.00M-7.00M
Net Income-198.00M7.00M769.00M644.00M74.00M-320.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.25B4.26B4.71B4.12B3.91B3.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments695.00M987.00M581.00M510.00M510.00M667.00M
Total Debt0.001.94B2.20B1.61B1.67B1.71B
Total Liabilities3.48B3.48B3.67B3.59B3.35B2.96B
Stockholders Equity580.00M703.00M847.00M531.00M553.00M1.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-160.00M172.00M686.00M693.00M-159.00M-193.00M
Operating Cash Flow32.00M404.00M948.00M967.00M90.00M90.00M
Investing Cash Flow-148.00M-121.00M-239.00M-271.00M-423.00M-423.00M
Financing Cash Flow167.00M-482.00M-40.00M-696.00M-315.00M355.00M

CVR Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price32.49
Price Trends
50DMA
24.74
Positive
100DMA
21.81
Positive
200DMA
21.02
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.87
Negative
RSI
81.56
Negative
STOCH
97.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.09, above the 50-day MA of 24.74, and above the 200-day MA of 21.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.56 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVI.

CVR Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
SUSUN
71
Outperform
$8.05B9.4826.11%6.77%-3.59%22.77%
68
Neutral
$15.23B10.086.34%5.20%4.06%-66.99%
66
Neutral
$8.46B35.13-1.49%4.47%-11.17%-109.60%
VLVLO
65
Neutral
$46.56B52.423.73%3.03%-8.44%-85.95%
PBPBF
59
Neutral
$2.98B-18.01%4.26%-16.30%-160.78%
CVCVI
55
Neutral
$3.10B268.82-27.14%14.64%-16.21%-130.18%
DKDK
51
Neutral
$1.46B-151.69%4.19%-29.23%-931.43%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CVI
CVR Energy
32.49
8.30
34.31%
DK
Delek US Holdings
26.67
5.18
24.10%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
46.02
0.39
0.85%
VLO
Valero Energy
154.81
12.62
8.88%
PBF
PBF Energy
27.90
-11.24
-28.72%
SUN
Sunoco
52.73
-0.43
-0.81%

CVR Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
CVR Energy Releases New Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jun 24, 2025

On June 24, 2025, CVR Energy, Inc. will begin utilizing an Investor Presentation in meetings with investors and analysts. This presentation, which includes forward-looking statements, will be available on the company’s website. The release of this presentation is part of CVR Energy’s strategy to communicate its future plans and expectations, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVI) stock is a Sell with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Energy stock, see the CVI Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
CVR Energy Approves Amended Long-Term Incentive Plan
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

On June 5, 2025, CVR Energy, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where the company’s amended long-term incentive plan was approved. This plan increases the number of shares reserved from 7,500,000 to 10,000,000 and extends the plan’s term until April 21, 2035. It also introduces new award agreements and clarifies conditions related to compensation recovery policies. Additionally, stockholders elected eight directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified Grant Thornton LLP as the independent auditor for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVI) stock is a Sell with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Energy stock, see the CVI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
CVR Energy Reports Q1 2025 Net Loss of $123M
Negative
Apr 28, 2025

CVR Energy reported a challenging first quarter in 2025, with a net loss of $123 million, compared to a net income of $82 million in the same period of 2024. The company’s performance was significantly impacted by planned and unplanned downtime at the Coffeyville refinery, resulting in a substantial decrease in throughput and refining margins. Despite these setbacks, CVR Partners, the company’s nitrogen fertilizer segment, achieved solid results, with increased ammonia production and a declared cash distribution of $2.26 per common unit. The Renewables Segment also showed improvement, reporting a net income of less than $1 million, driven by increased production and sales volumes.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 08, 2025