CVR Energy (CVI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.71B
• Dividend Yield: 16.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 898.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 268.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: -16.21%
• EPS Growth: -130.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,595
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 100,530,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 813,477
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 898,478
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -132.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.11
• 1Y Price Target: $21.50
• Price Target Upside: -20.22% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▼(-3.53%Downside)

The overall stock score reflects notable financial performance challenges, especially in revenue and margin declines, despite balance sheet improvements. Technical analysis indicates some positive momentum, but valuation concerns and earnings challenges weigh heavily. The earnings call revealed significant operational issues, further impacting the score.

Positive Factors

Fertilizer Segment Performance

The Fertilizer segment is expected to see sequentially higher EBITDA due to seasonal strength in ammonia.

Financial Liquidity

The company added ~$400mm in liquidity in December with a pipeline sale and a new term loan.

Negative Factors

Dividend Overhang

Management needs to get past the turnarounds and weak refining outlook to reinstate the dividend, which is a key overhang on the stock.

Refining Volume and Capex

A more front-loaded impact of the Coffeyville turnaround suggests lower refining volume outlook combined with higher capex.

Turnaround Impact

The large turnaround at Coffeyville will keep results subdued in the short term.

CVR Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) is a diversified holding company primarily engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries. Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, CVR Energy operates through its subsidiaries, CVR Refining, LP and CVR Partners, LP, to provide high-quality petroleum products and nitrogen fertilizers mainly to agricultural and industrial customers in the United States. The company's refining operations are located in Kansas and Oklahoma, while its fertilizer production facilities are positioned in Kansas and Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

CVR Energy generates revenue through two main business segments: petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing. The petroleum refining segment involves the production and sale of high-value transportation fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, and other refined products. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined products to wholesale customers, retailers, and directly to consumers through various channels. The nitrogen fertilizer segment involves the production and sale of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), which are essential for agricultural crop production. Sales in this segment are primarily made to agricultural retailers and distributors. CVR Energy's earnings are significantly influenced by factors such as crude oil prices, refining margins, and agricultural demand, as well as strategic partnerships and market conditions.

CVR Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CVR Energy faces significant challenges with declining revenues and margins, especially gross profit and net profit margins turning sharply negative or low, impacting its overall profitability. The elimination of debt strengthens the balance sheet, yet reduced cash flows indicate potential operational difficulties. Improvements are needed in revenue growth and margin enhancement to boost financial performance.

Income Statement

The company experienced a significant decline in revenue from $9.25 billion in 2023 to $7.61 billion in TTM, indicating revenue contraction. Gross profit margin turned negative at -18.8% for TTM, a concerning indicator. Net profit margin plummeted to just 0.09% in TTM from 8.3% in 2023, showing profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows improvement in leverage and liquidity. The company has cleared its total debt, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, enhancing financial stability. Stockholders' equity ratio improved to 16.49% from 18.0% in 2023. However, the total assets have decreased, indicating possible asset reduction or write-offs.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow decreased significantly from $948 million in 2023 to $306 million in TTM, indicating reduced cash generation from operations. The free cash flow also declined, but the company managed to maintain a positive free cash flow of $168 million. The ratio of operating cash flow to net income is robust but declined compared to previous periods.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
7.39B	7.61B	9.25B	10.90B	7.24B	3.93B
	Gross Profit
-32.00M	197.00M	1.27B	1.13B	218.00M	-189.00M
	EBIT
-173.00M	58.00M	1.12B	963.00M	87.00M	-333.00M
	EBITDA
127.00M	394.00M	1.44B	1.26B	369.00M	-7.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-198.00M	7.00M	769.00M	644.00M	74.00M	-320.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
695.00M	987.00M	581.00M	510.00M	510.00M	667.00M
	Total Assets
4.25B	4.26B	4.71B	4.12B	3.91B	3.98B
	Total Debt
0.00	1.94B	2.20B	1.61B	1.67B	1.71B
	Net Debt
1.24B	948.00M	1.62B	1.10B	1.16B	1.04B
	Total Liabilities
3.48B	3.48B	3.67B	3.59B	3.35B	2.96B
	Stockholders Equity
580.00M	703.00M	847.00M	531.00M	553.00M	1.02B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-160.00M	172.00M	686.00M	693.00M	-159.00M	-193.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
32.00M	404.00M	948.00M	967.00M	90.00M	90.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-148.00M	-121.00M	-239.00M	-271.00M	-423.00M	-423.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
167.00M	-482.00M	-40.00M	-696.00M	-315.00M	355.00M

CVR Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 26.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.94, above the 50-day MA of 21.08, and above the 200-day MA of 20.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.52 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVI.

CVR Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DINO	71 Outperform	$7.36B	35.13	-1.49%	5.12%	-11.17%	-109.60%
VLO	70 Neutral	$42.00B	47.28	3.73%	3.37%	-8.44%	-85.95%
SUN	68 Neutral	$8.13B	9.57	26.11%	6.75%	-3.59%	22.77%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.56B	3.50	-4.45%	10.15%	0.79%	-49.51%
CVI	51 Neutral	$2.71B	268.82	-27.14%	16.77%	-16.21%	-130.18%
DK	51 Neutral	$1.24B	―	-151.69%	5.00%	-29.23%	-931.43%
PBF	48 Neutral	$2.45B	―	-18.01%	5.19%	-16.30%	-160.78%

CVR Energy Corporate Events

CVR Energy Approves Amended Long-Term Incentive Plan

On June 5, 2025, CVR Energy, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where the company’s amended long-term incentive plan was approved. This plan increases the number of shares reserved from 7,500,000 to 10,000,000 and extends the plan’s term until April 21, 2035. It also introduces new award agreements and clarifies conditions related to compensation recovery policies. Additionally, stockholders elected eight directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified Grant Thornton LLP as the independent auditor for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVI) stock is a Sell with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Energy stock, see the CVI Stock Forecast page.

CVR Energy Reports Q1 2025 Net Loss of $123M

CVR Energy reported a challenging first quarter in 2025, with a net loss of $123 million, compared to a net income of $82 million in the same period of 2024. The company’s performance was significantly impacted by planned and unplanned downtime at the Coffeyville refinery, resulting in a substantial decrease in throughput and refining margins. Despite these setbacks, CVR Partners, the company’s nitrogen fertilizer segment, achieved solid results, with increased ammonia production and a declared cash distribution of $2.26 per common unit. The Renewables Segment also showed improvement, reporting a net income of less than $1 million, driven by increased production and sales volumes.

CVR Energy Appoints New Board Members, Expands Board

On March 31, 2025, CVR Energy appointed Robert E. Flint and Colin Kwak to its Board of Directors, with Flint becoming the Chairperson. Both are affiliated with Icahn Enterprises, which controls a majority stake in CVR Energy. Their appointments follow the resignation of Ted Papapostolou for personal reasons, not related to any company disagreements. The board expanded from seven to eight members, reflecting these changes.