CVR Energy (CVI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.29B
• Dividend Yield: 10.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.36
• Revenue Growth: -7.21%
• EPS Growth: 135.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,595
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 100,530,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,219,275
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,288,253
• PEG Ratio: -2.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.25
• 1Y Price Target: $27.25
• Price Target Upside: 19.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.50 ▼(-1.06% Downside)

Overall score reflects mixed fundamentals and elevated leverage/cash-flow risk, combined with a clearly bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). These are partially offset by a moderate P/E and very high dividend yield, plus a solid Q3 earnings call centered on strength in refining and fertilizer despite ongoing renewables weakness.

Positive Factors

Refining Utilization

Sustained high refinery utilization demonstrates durable operational capacity and asset efficiency, supporting stable product supply and throughput-driven margins. Over a 2–6 month horizon, near-full utilization reduces per-barrel fixed costs and underpins consistent cash generation from core refining operations.

Fertilizer Segment Strength

The nitrogen fertilizer business delivers diversification and stronger realized pricing, contributing meaningful EBITDA. With high ammonia utilization (95% reported) and continued agricultural demand, this segment provides a durable cash-flow buffer and reduces reliance solely on refining cyclicality.

Active Deleveraging Strategy

Proceeds-targeted refinancing and prior prepayment actions reflect a deliberate move to reshape the debt maturity profile and reduce secured leverage. If executed, this structural change can improve financial flexibility, lower refinancing risk, and support longer-term capital allocation and investment plans.

Negative Factors

Renewables Strategic Setback

Pulling back from renewable diesel marks a structural retreat from higher-growth energy transition exposure, resulting in asset write-downs and lost diversification optionality. This diminishes long-term strategic flexibility and keeps the company exposed to hydrocarbon demand cycles and commodity-driven earnings variability.

Elevated Leverage

High leverage is a persistent structural vulnerability that increases interest and refinancing risk, especially in a capital-intensive business. Elevated debt limits strategic optionality, constrains margins during commodity stress, and makes sustained deleveraging and liquidity maintenance a multi-quarter priority.

Weak Free Cash Flow Trend

A sharp decline in free cash flow growth signals weaker internal funding for capex, debt repayment, and shareholder returns. Over several months this reduces the company's ability to accelerate deleveraging or invest in growth, increasing reliance on external financing and heightening balance-sheet risk.

CVR Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CVR Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing activities in the United States. It operates in two segments, Petroleum and Nitrogen Fertilizer. The Petroleum segment refines and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, and other refined products. It also owns and operates a coking medium-sour crude oil refinery in southeast Kansas; and a crude oil refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma, as well as supporting logistics assets. This segment primarily serves retailers, railroads, farm co-operatives, and other refiners/marketers. The Nitrogen Fertilizer segment owns and operates a nitrogen fertilizer plant in North America that utilizes a pet coke gasification process to produce nitrogen fertilizer products; and a nitrogen fertilizer facility in East Dubuque, Illinois that produces nitrogen fertilizers in the form of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN). It primarily markets UAN products to agricultural customers; and ammonia products to agricultural and industrial customers. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas. CVR Energy, Inc. is a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P.

How the Company Makes Money

CVR Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining and sale of petroleum products. The Refining segment contributes significantly to its earnings by converting crude oil into various refined products, which are then sold to wholesalers, retailers, and other customers. Additionally, the Nitrogen Fertilizer segment provides another revenue stream by producing and selling nitrogen-based fertilizers used in agriculture, catering to farmers and agricultural distributors. Factors such as fluctuating crude oil prices, refining margins, and demand for fertilizer products play a crucial role in the company's profitability. Strategic partnerships, such as those with suppliers and distribution networks, enhance CVR Energy's ability to optimize operations and maximize revenue.

CVR Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: modest profitability (TTM gross margin 6.23%, net margin 2.27%) and low revenue growth (1.54%), offset by high leverage (elevated debt-to-equity) and weakening cash generation (TTM free cash flow growth -51.19%).

Income Statement

CVR Energy shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a modest gross profit margin of 6.23% and a net profit margin of 2.27%, reflecting some profitability. However, the revenue growth rate is low at 1.54%, suggesting limited growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, indicating operational efficiency but also highlighting potential areas for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. The return on equity is relatively low at 25.65% in the TTM, suggesting moderate profitability from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall leverage suggests a need for cautious financial management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -51.19% in the TTM, indicating cash flow issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is 56.12%, suggesting some ability to generate cash relative to net income. Overall, cash flow management appears to be an area needing attention.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.30B	7.61B	9.25B	10.90B	7.24B	3.93B
Gross Profit	455.00M	197.00M	1.27B	1.12B	209.00M	-199.00M
EBITDA	661.00M	394.00M	1.44B	1.17B	462.00M	-7.00M
Net Income	166.00M	7.00M	769.00M	463.00M	25.00M	-256.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.99B	4.26B	4.71B	4.12B	3.91B	3.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	670.00M	987.00M	581.00M	510.00M	510.00M	667.00M
Total Debt	1.86B	1.94B	2.20B	1.61B	1.67B	1.71B
Total Liabilities	2.95B	3.38B	3.67B	3.33B	3.14B	2.76B
Stockholders Equity	840.00M	703.00M	847.00M	531.00M	553.00M	1.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-103.00M	172.00M	686.00M	693.00M	147.00M	-193.00M
Operating Cash Flow	242.00M	404.00M	948.00M	967.00M	396.00M	90.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-266.00M	-121.00M	-239.00M	-271.00M	-238.00M	-423.00M
Financing Cash Flow	160.00M	-482.00M	-40.00M	-696.00M	-315.00M	355.00M

CVR Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 22.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.51, below the 50-day MA of 28.16, and below the 200-day MA of 28.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CVI.

CVR Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUN	71 Outperform	$8.81B	20.14	8.27%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
DINO	68 Neutral	$9.56B	24.66	4.07%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
PARR	67 Neutral	$1.90B	7.93	17.81%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CVI	56 Neutral	$2.29B	13.85	21.78%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%
PBF	49 Neutral	$3.88B	-7.18	-9.47%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
DK	45 Neutral	$1.77B	-3.61	-115.95%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%

CVR Energy Corporate Events

CVR Energy Plans $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On January 29, 2026, CVR Energy, Inc. announced plans, subject to market conditions, to issue $1 billion of senior unsecured notes in a private placement, with tranches maturing in 2031 and 2034, which are expected to be guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by certain domestic subsidiaries including those tied to its existing asset-based revolving credit facility. The company intends to use the net proceeds, together with cash on hand or borrowings under that facility, to repay its senior secured term loan and redeem all of its 8.500% senior notes due 2029 and $217 million of its 5.750% senior notes due 2028, a move that would significantly reshape its debt profile and potentially enhance financial flexibility, although completion of the offering remains uncertain and the notes will be sold only to qualified institutional and certain non-U.S. investors under securities law exemptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVI) stock is a Sell with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Energy stock, see the CVI Stock Forecast page.

CVR Energy Projects Q4 Loss Amid Operational Shift

On January 26, 2026, CVR Energy reported preliminary estimates showing a consolidated net loss attributable to stockholders for the fourth quarter of 2025, driven mainly by accelerated depreciation tied to reverting the Wynnewood renewable diesel unit back to hydrocarbon processing and by lower nitrogen fertilizer production and sales caused by a planned turnaround and delayed restart at the Coffeyville plant. For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, net loss is projected between $110 million and $125 million, while full-year 2025 net income is estimated between $81 million and $96 million, with adjusted EBITDA for the year expected in the $380 million to $404 million range, total refining throughput averaging 180,000 to 183,000 barrels per day, and ammonia utilization at 87% to 89%, indicating that despite the quarterly setback, the company maintains solid annual profitability, stable liquidity with $500 million to $520 million in cash, and anticipates operational benefits from returning Wynnewood’s hydrocracker to hydrocarbon service and from having no planned 2026 turnarounds in its petroleum segment.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVI) stock is a Sell with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Energy stock, see the CVI Stock Forecast page.

CVR Energy Sets 2026 Capex Plan, Highlights Core Operations

On December 31, 2025, subsidiaries of CVR Energy prepaid $75 million of principal on the company’s senior secured term loan facility, cutting the outstanding balance to about $165 million and marking repayment of half the loan issued in December 2024 as part of its deleveraging strategy. On January 5, 2026, the company also outlined a 2026 consolidated capital expenditure plan of $200 million to $240 million, with most spending directed to maintenance and selective growth projects in the Petroleum segment and $60 million to $75 million earmarked for the Nitrogen Fertilizer segment, while renewables-related capex is expected to be minimal following the December 2025 reversion of its renewable diesel unit to hydrocarbon service, underscoring a focus on balance-sheet strengthening and core hydrocarbon operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVI) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Energy stock, see the CVI Stock Forecast page.

CVR Energy Announces New President and CEO Appointment

On December 23, 2025, CVR Energy, Inc.’s board appointed Mark A. Pytosh, a long-time executive within the CVR group, as President and Chief Executive Officer effective January 1, 2026, succeeding David L. Lamp, who will step down from those roles as of December 31, 2025. Pytosh, 60, who has served as the Company’s Executive Vice President – Corporate Services since 2018 and as President and CEO of the general partner of CVR Partners, LP since 2014, will retain his leadership and board roles at CVR Partners while assuming the top executive position and a new directorship at CVR Energy, as the board expands from nine to ten members; he will not receive additional board compensation while employed, and the company disclosed that there are no related-party transactions, pre-arranged selection understandings, or family relationships influencing his appointment, underscoring a continuity-focused but formally independent leadership transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVI) stock is a Sell with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Energy stock, see the CVI Stock Forecast page.

CVR Energy Releases New Investor Presentation

On November 20, 2025, CVR Energy, Inc. will begin using a new Investor Presentation in meetings with investors and analysts. This presentation, which includes forward-looking statements, will be available on the company’s website. The company emphasizes that the information provided is not intended to be material or complete for investment decisions, and it will not be subject to liability under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVI) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Energy stock, see the CVI Stock Forecast page.

CVR Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Turnaround

CVR Energy reported a significant financial turnaround in the third quarter of 2025, with a net income of $374 million compared to a net loss of $124 million in the same period in 2024. This improvement was driven by a $488 million benefit from an EPA decision, increased crude utilization, and higher refining margins. The company also announced a cash distribution of $4.02 per common unit by CVR Partners. However, the Renewables Segment faced challenges, reporting a net loss and deciding to revert a renewable diesel unit back to hydrocarbon processing due to unfavorable economics. The Nitrogen Fertilizer Segment saw increased net income and EBITDA, aided by higher realized gate prices for ammonia and UAN.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVI) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Energy stock, see the CVI Stock Forecast page.