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CVR Energy
(NYSE:CVI)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(16.59% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak/volatile profitability and high leverage despite improving cash flow, which increases downside risk if margins weaken. Supporting the rating are a clear positive price trend (well above major moving averages) and constructive earnings-call signals around operational performance, liquidity, and deleveraging, though regulatory/RIN exposure and hedging losses remain meaningful headwinds. Valuation is mixed due to a negative P/E and only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation and ample liquidity
Sustained free cash flow improvement and ~ $1.1B liquidity provide durable capacity to fund capex, service debt, and pursue deleveraging targets. Strong cash conversion supports capital allocation flexibility over coming quarters even if margins normalize.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and reduced equity cushion
High leverage and a materially reduced equity base constrain financial flexibility and increase solvency risk if margins or cash flow weaken. Limited equity cushion raises the importance of sustained FCF for deleveraging and makes capital allocation sensitive to adverse shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation and ample liquidity
Sustained free cash flow improvement and ~ $1.1B liquidity provide durable capacity to fund capex, service debt, and pursue deleveraging targets. Strong cash conversion supports capital allocation flexibility over coming quarters even if margins normalize.
Read all positive factors
CVR Energy (CVI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.58B
Dividend Yield1.32%
Average Volume (3M)986.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)51.6
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth17.88%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,532
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.69
Shares Outstanding100,530,600
10 Day Avg. Volume841,882
30 Day Avg. Volume986,770
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.33
Price to Book (P/B)3.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.36
P/FCF Ratio-62.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.00Price Target Upside-13.30% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Sell
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.25B
CVR Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CVR Energy, Inc., a diversified company, operates through its subsidiaries primarily focusing on petroleum refining and the production of nitrogen fertilizers within the United States. Its business is organized into two distinct divisions: Petrole...
How the Company Makes Money
CVR Energy makes money primarily by refining crude oil and selling the resulting refined products. In its petroleum refining business, the company purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, processes them at its refineries, and sells outputs such a...
CVR Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational execution, marked improvements in segment adjusted EBITDA, robust cash generation and ample liquidity, alongside proactive capital allocation and deleveraging targets. Material headwinds include sharply higher RIN/RFS costs and an unfavorable RFS liability, sizable realized hedging losses, and near-term fertilizer downtime and associated costs. Management expresses confidence in near-term market conditions and the company's ability to convert strong margins into deleveraging and shareholder value, but regulatory uncertainty (EPA decisions) and hedging impacts present meaningful risks to near-term GAAP earnings and margin capture.Positive Updates
High Refinery and Ammonia Utilization
Crude utilization of ~98% of nameplate capacity and ammonia plant utilization of 99% in Q2 2026, indicating strong operational reliability and throughput performance.
Negative Updates
RIN/RFS Cost Spike and Liability
RIN price rose over 125% YoY to average nearly $14 per barrel in Q2 2026. RIN expense (excluding change in RFS liability) was $216 million or $11.16/bbl, which negatively impacted the capture rate by ~25%. Estimated accrued RFS obligation was $408 million at June 30 with a $169 million RIN mark-to-market at an average of $2.41.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
High Refinery and Ammonia Utilization
Crude utilization of ~98% of nameplate capacity and ammonia plant utilization of 99% in Q2 2026, indicating strong operational reliability and throughput performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q3 the company guided Petroleum throughput of roughly 205,000–220,000 bpd with operating expenses of $110–$120 million and petroleum capital spending of $41–$50 million; for the Fertilizer segment it expects ammonia utilization of 75%–80% (impacted by a late‑August East Dubuque turnaround), direct operating expenses excluding inventory/turnaround of $57–$62 million, turnaround costs of $30–$35 million and fertilizer capex of $40–$49 million. Full‑year 2026 consolidated capex was estimated at $215–$240 million; liquidity at June 30 was about $1.1 billion (including roughly $600 million cash and $540 million ABL availability) with consolidated cash of $737 million and a gross leverage target of $1.0 billion (excluding CVR Partners). Hedge exposure for Q3 is ~2.7 million barrels (notional ≈ $102 million), total open crack‑spread positions ≈ 8.2 million barrels, ~4.6 million barrels of diesel and 0.4 million barrels of gasoline hedged for the remainder of 2026 and ~3.2 million barrels of diesel hedged in 2027. Management also reiterated ratable RIN purchasing (planning to buy 50% of Wynnewood’s obligation), noted an accrued RFS obligation of $408 million at June 30 and Q2 RIN pricing near $14/ bbl; quarter‑to‑date Group‑3 2‑1‑1 cracks averaged $58.70/ bbl and prompt fertilizer prices were $650–$700/ton for ammonia and $325–$350/ton for UAN.CVR Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.47B | 7.16B | 7.61B | 9.25B | 10.90B | 7.24B |
| Gross Profit | 288.00M | 315.00M | 197.00M | 1.27B | 1.12B | 209.00M |
| EBITDA | 743.00M | 588.00M | 394.00M | 1.44B | 1.17B | 462.00M |
| Net Income | 69.00M | 27.00M | 7.00M | 769.00M | 463.00M | 25.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.08B | 3.79B | 4.26B | 4.71B | 4.12B | 3.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 737.00M | 511.00M | 987.00M | 581.00M | 510.00M | 510.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.77B | 1.83B | 1.94B | 2.20B | 1.61B | 1.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.33B | 2.90B | 3.38B | 3.67B | 3.33B | 3.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 525.00M | 730.00M | 703.00M | 847.00M | 531.00M | 553.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 346.00M | -41.00M | 172.00M | 686.00M | 693.00M | 147.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 534.00M | 144.00M | 404.00M | 948.00M | 967.00M | 396.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -181.00M | -362.00M | -121.00M | -239.00M | -271.00M | -238.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -212.00M | -258.00M | -482.00M | -40.00M | -696.00M | -315.00M |
CVR Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
33.45
Price Trends
31.74
Positive
31.94
Positive
30.51
Positive
Market Momentum
1.16
Negative
56.63
Neutral
57.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.36, above the 50-day MA of 31.74, and above the 200-day MA of 30.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVI.
CVR Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $16.26B | 8.69 | 19.86% | 2.27% | 16.26% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $8.57B | 6.29 | 24.08% | 1.78% | 13.54% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $15.71B | 19.37 | 17.28% | 4.99% | 37.27% | -29.09% | |
71 Outperform | $4.31B | 9.43 | 32.61% | ― | -2.52% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
55 Neutral | $3.58B | 51.62 | 10.48% | 1.41% | 17.88% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $4.16B | -78.01 | -37.66% | 1.61% | -6.49% | 93.38% |
* Energy Sector Average
CVI
CVR Energy
35.62
10.76
43.31%
DK
Delek US Holdings
67.87
47.13
227.23%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
91.47
49.27
116.75%
PBF
PBF Energy
72.28
49.79
221.36%
SUN
Sunoco
76.69
25.91
51.02%
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
86.03
55.50
181.79%
CVR Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
CVR Energy Posts Strong Q2 Results, Declares Dividend
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
CVR Energy reported second quarter 2026 results on July 29, showing a sharp year-on-year improvement despite a small net loss attributable to stockholders of $3 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, and adjusted earnings of $0.34 per diluted share....
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
CVR Energy Names New CEO Amid Strategic Transition
Neutral
Jun 23, 2026
On June 18, 2026, CVR Energy President and CEO Mark A. Pytosh resigned from his roles at the company and its controlled affiliate CVR Partners, under a separation agreement that provides $3 million in severance and shortens his non-compete to nine...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CVR Energy Shareholders Endorse Board and Governance Framework
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 4, 2026, CVR Energy, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where investors voted on the election of ten directors, an advisory proposal on named executive officer compensation, and the ratification of the company’s indep...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
CVR Energy Releases Updated Strategic Investor Presentation
Neutral
May 12, 2026
Beginning May 12, 2026, CVR Energy planned to use a new investor presentation in meetings with current and potential investors and analysts, providing an updated overview of its refining and fertilizer businesses and strategic priorities. The mate...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.