Sunoco (SUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.40B
• Dividend Yield: 6.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 417.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: -5.18%
• EPS Growth: -33.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,298
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 136,613,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 392,222
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 417,761
• PEG Ratio: -0.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.07
• 1Y Price Target: $65.33
• Price Target Upside: 6.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $67.00 ▲(9.12% Upside)

The score is driven mainly by improving operating and free cash flow and a constructive earnings call with clear 2026 EBITDA/synergy targets and strong liquidity, but is held back by thin/pressured profitability and elevated leverage. Technicals are supportive (uptrend) but look overextended, while valuation is mixed (high yield offset by a higher P/E).

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Sunoco’s operating cash flow rose to about $1.19B and free cash flow to ~$615M in 2025, a durable improvement versus 2024. Strong absolute cash generation supports ongoing maintenance and growth capex, distribution coverage, and deleveraging over the next several quarters even if margins remain pressured.

Scale & 2026 Guidance

Management’s 2026 EBITDA target and disclosed $125M of expected synergy capture reflect tangible scale benefits from the Parkland deal. A clear multi-point plan (growth capex, bolt-on M&A floor) and quantified synergy expectations provide a structural earnings uplift path if integration remains on schedule.

Liquidity & Distribution Track Record

With $2.5B of revolver availability, a trailing coverage ratio around 1.9x and multiple quarterly distribution raises, Sunoco shows durable liquidity and disciplined cash allocation. This combination supports steady distributions and funds integration and capex without immediate refinancing risk for several quarters.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

Leverage remains high after acquisitions, with debt-to-equity near ~2.0x and management targeting ~4.0x leverage operationally. Elevated debt increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constraining strategic flexibility and raising downside risk if EBITDA or synergies lag over the next several quarters.

Thin & Volatile Profitability

Despite revenue recovery, Sunoco’s net margin is structurally thin (~2.1%) and net income declined year-over-year. Low, variable margins reduce resilience to fuel price swings and operational disruptions, making cash coverages and distribution sustainability more sensitive to quarter-to-quarter performance.

Synergy & Integration Execution Risk

The 2026 plan relies on realizing half of a $250M annual synergy target and integrating Parkland/TanQuid assets while executing a 50‑day refinery turnaround. Execution shortfalls or delays would reduce the expected EBITDA lift, strain leverage metrics, and could force higher near-term capex or operational trade-offs.

Sunoco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sunoco LP, together with its subsidiaries, distributes and retails motor fuels in the United States. It operates in two segments, Fuel Distribution and Marketing, and All Other. The Fuel Distribution and Marketing segment purchases motor fuel from independent refiners and oil companies and supplies it to independently operated dealer stations, distributors and other consumer of motor fuel, and partnership operated stations, as well as to commission agent locations. The All Other segment operates retail stores that offer motor fuel, merchandise, foodservice, and other services that include credit card processing, car washes, lottery, automated teller machines, money orders, prepaid phone cards, and wireless services. It also leases and subleases real estate properties; and operates terminal facilities on the Hawaiian Islands. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 78 retail stores in Hawaii and New Jersey. Sunoco GP LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was formerly known as Susser Petroleum Partners LP and changed its name to Sunoco LP in October 2014. Sunoco LP was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Sunoco generates revenue primarily through the sale of motor fuels and convenience store merchandise. The company's revenue model includes wholesale fuel distribution to a large network of branded and unbranded retail outlets, which comprise a significant portion of its business. Additionally, Sunoco operates company-owned and franchise convenience stores that provide a diverse range of products, including food, beverages, and automotive supplies. Key revenue streams include: 1) Fuel sales to retail and commercial customers, both through company-operated stations and dealer-operated locations; 2) Merchandise sales from convenience stores; 3) Fuel supply agreements with third-party retailers; and 4) Transportation and logistics services related to fuel distribution. Strategic partnerships with various suppliers and retailers bolster its market presence and enhance revenue opportunities.

Sunoco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue and cash flow improved in 2025, with operating cash flow (~$1.19B) and free cash flow (~$615M) rising strongly. However, profitability remains thin and pressured (net margin ~2.1% and net income down in 2025 vs. 2024), while leverage is elevated with debt increasing in 2025 and debt-to-equity around ~2.0x.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded in 2025 (up ~15% YoY after modest declines in 2023–2024), showing improving top-line momentum. Profitability is positive but structurally thin for the industry: 2025 net margin was ~2.1% (down from ~3.2% in 2024) while EBITDA margin improved to ~6.4%. Net income fell in 2025 versus 2024 despite higher revenue, indicating margin pressure and a more volatile earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated: 2025 debt-to-equity is ~2.0x (still high, though improved versus 2020–2023 levels that were ~4–6x). Total debt increased materially in 2025 versus 2024, which raises financial risk even as equity also grew. Returns on equity are positive but cooled in 2025 (~6.6%) after stronger prior-year performance, suggesting less efficient profitability relative to the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved in 2025 with operating cash flow rising to ~$1.19B and free cash flow to ~$615M (strong growth versus 2024). However, cash conversion remains a watch item: free cash flow was only ~52% of net income in 2025 (better than 2024 but below the ~65–75% seen in 2020–2023). Operating cash flow relative to revenue is also low (~0.30% in 2025), implying tight cash efficiency despite higher absolute dollars.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.87B	25.20B	22.69B	23.07B	25.73B	17.60B
Gross Profit	2.01B	2.10B	1.73B	1.18B	1.19B	1.17B
EBITDA	1.69B	1.62B	1.03B	829.00M	870.00M	887.00M
Net Income	402.00M	527.00M	716.00M	311.00M	397.00M	446.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.84B	28.36B	14.38B	6.85B	6.86B	5.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.24B	891.00M	94.00M	29.00M	82.00M	25.00M
Total Debt	10.07B	16.11B	8.00B	4.11B	4.12B	3.79B
Total Liabilities	12.30B	20.35B	10.31B	5.87B	5.91B	5.00B
Stockholders Equity	5.54B	8.01B	4.07B	978.00M	942.00M	811.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	373.00M	615.00M	205.00M	385.00M	375.00M	369.00M
Operating Cash Flow	923.00M	1.19B	549.00M	600.00M	561.00M	543.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-726.00M	-2.81B	477.00M	-288.00M	-464.00M	-387.00M
Financing Cash Flow	2.93B	2.41B	-961.00M	-365.00M	-40.00M	-228.00M

Sunoco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 61.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 61.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.47, above the 50-day MA of 55.46, and above the 200-day MA of 52.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.19 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SUN.

Sunoco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGP	80 Outperform	$5.69B	10.71	18.26%	8.03%	-3.51%	3.75%
DINO	68 Neutral	$9.49B	16.61	6.19%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
SUN	67 Neutral	$9.40B	26.93	5.60%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
PBF	54 Neutral	$3.88B	-23.14	-2.92%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CVI	47 Neutral	$2.25B	80.38	3.77%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%
DK	45 Neutral	$2.08B	-4.19	-115.95%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%

Sunoco Corporate Events

Sunoco Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Lifts Distribution

On February 17, 2026, Sunoco LP and SunocoCorp LLC reported solid fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighted by fourth-quarter net income of $97 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $706 million excluding one-time transaction expenses and Distributable Cash Flow, as adjusted, of $442 million. Although full-year net income fell to $527 million from $866 million in 2024, Adjusted EBITDA surged to $2.05 billion and Distributable Cash Flow, as adjusted, rose to $1.38 billion, underscoring stronger cash generation.

Segment performance showed robust gains in fuel distribution, terminals and the new refinery segment, while pipeline systems remained steady, reflecting a diversified asset base. Sunoco completed the acquisition of Parkland Corporation on October 31, 2025 and closed the TanQuid acquisition in January 2026, expanding its footprint and infrastructure and ending 2025 at its long-term leverage target of about four times, while delivering an eighth straight year of growth in Distributable Cash Flow per common unit.

The partnership raised its quarterly distribution by 1.25% for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a fifth consecutive quarterly increase and reinforcing its capital allocation strategy centered on steady distribution growth. With long-term debt of about $13.4 billion, $2.5 billion in available liquidity and $651 million in 2025 capital spending skewed to growth projects, Sunoco LP appears positioned to integrate recent acquisitions, sustain infrastructure investment and support unitholder returns within its targeted leverage profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Finalizes Parkland Acquisition, Expands North American Footprint

On October 31, 2025, Sunoco LP, via SunocoCorp LLC, completed a previously announced strategic transaction to acquire all issued and outstanding common shares of Canada’s Parkland Corporation under a court-approved plan of arrangement, making Parkland an indirect wholly owned subsidiary and expanding Sunoco’s footprint in North American fuel distribution and retail. Following the closing, Sunoco filed an amended Current Report that supplements Parkland’s unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, and updated unaudited pro forma combined financial information, providing investors and other stakeholders with more detailed visibility into Parkland’s standalone performance and the combined entity’s capital structure, leverage and earnings profile after the acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Hold with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Issues 2026 Guidance and Capital Allocation Outlook

On January 6, 2026, Sunoco LP issued its 2026 guidance, projecting full-year adjusted EBITDA between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion, underpinned by an expected $125 million in synergies from the Parkland acquisition, a planned 50-day maintenance turnaround at the Burnaby Refinery starting at the end of January, the anticipated closing of the TanQuid acquisition in the first quarter, and at least $600 million in growth capital expenditures alongside $400 million to $450 million of maintenance capex. The partnership outlined a capital allocation strategy that includes a multi-year pipeline of bolt-on acquisitions of at least $500 million annually, a return to its long-term leverage target of four times in 2026, a targeted distribution growth rate of at least 5% with quarterly increase announcements, equal dividend equivalents for SunocoCorp investors, and an expected rise in distributable cash flow per common unit for the ninth consecutive year, signaling continued balance-sheet discipline and income growth for unitholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.