Sunoco (SUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.54B
• Dividend Yield: 6.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 498.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: -5.18%
• EPS Growth: -33.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,298
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 136,894,760
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 565,568
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 498,219
• PEG Ratio: -0.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.39
• 1Y Price Target: $66.33
• Price Target Upside: 0.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $40.70B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $69.00 ▲(4.34% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is driven primarily by improving operational and cash-flow momentum (including strong earnings-call guidance and record adjusted EBITDA) and bullish technical trends. Offsetting these positives are thin margins and elevated leverage, while valuation and a high dividend yield provide additional support.

Positive Factors

Scale & Geographic Diversification

The Parkland/TanQuid acquisitions materially increase Sunoco's distribution scale and geographic footprint, creating durable commercial leverage across North America and the Caribbean. Greater scale supports negotiating power with suppliers, broader terminal coverage, and higher throughput that can sustain fuel margin capture and resiliency to local demand swings.

Stronger Cash Generation & Record EBITDA

Record adjusted EBITDA and elevated distributable cash flow indicate materially improved cash generation versus recent years. Sustained higher EBITDA and DCF strengthen the partnership's ability to fund maintenance and growth capex, support targeted distribution increases, and provide internal liquidity for deleveraging or bolt-on M&A over the medium term.

Extended Debt Maturities / Refinancing

The senior notes issuance extends maturities and refinances higher coupon paper, reducing near-term rollover risk and smoothing the debt maturity wall. Improved maturity profile and lower interest costs give the company more time to realize synergies and execute integration while preserving revolver capacity for working capital or opportunistic M&A.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

High leverage materially constrains financial flexibility. With leverage near management's upper target and large absolute debt, earnings volatility or slower-than-expected synergies could quickly pressure coverage metrics and limit the ability to invest, repurchase, or cut distributions without external financing or asset sales.

Thin & Variable Margins

Structurally thin net margins leave Sunoco exposed to commodity price swings, competitive price pressure, and channel mix shifts. Margin variability—highlighted by management—means small adverse moves in per-gallon margins or volumes can materially reduce distributable cash flow and hinder consistent funding of capex and distribution targets.

Dependence on Synergy Realization & Execution Risk

A meaningful portion of 2026 guidance hinges on capturing $125M of synergies and successful integration execution. Combined with a lengthy refinery turnaround and elevated maintenance capex, missed synergies or execution setbacks would reduce free cash flow and strain leverage targets, increasing refinancing and operational risk over the medium term.

Sunoco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sunoco LP, together with its subsidiaries, distributes and retails motor fuels in the United States. It operates in two segments, Fuel Distribution and Marketing, and All Other. The Fuel Distribution and Marketing segment purchases motor fuel from independent refiners and oil companies and supplies it to independently operated dealer stations, distributors and other consumer of motor fuel, and partnership operated stations, as well as to commission agent locations. The All Other segment operates retail stores that offer motor fuel, merchandise, foodservice, and other services that include credit card processing, car washes, lottery, automated teller machines, money orders, prepaid phone cards, and wireless services. It also leases and subleases real estate properties; and operates terminal facilities on the Hawaiian Islands. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 78 retail stores in Hawaii and New Jersey. Sunoco GP LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was formerly known as Susser Petroleum Partners LP and changed its name to Sunoco LP in October 2014. Sunoco LP was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Sunoco generates revenue primarily through the sale of motor fuels and convenience store merchandise. The company's revenue model includes wholesale fuel distribution to a large network of branded and unbranded retail outlets, which comprise a significant portion of its business. Additionally, Sunoco operates company-owned and franchise convenience stores that provide a diverse range of products, including food, beverages, and automotive supplies. Key revenue streams include: 1) Fuel sales to retail and commercial customers, both through company-operated stations and dealer-operated locations; 2) Merchandise sales from convenience stores; 3) Fuel supply agreements with third-party retailers; and 4) Transportation and logistics services related to fuel distribution. Strategic partnerships with various suppliers and retailers bolster its market presence and enhance revenue opportunities.

Sunoco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are improving but carry notable risk. Revenue rebounded in 2025 and operating/free cash flow rose materially, but net income declined despite higher sales (margin pressure) and profitability remains thin. Leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity ~2.0x) and debt increased in 2025, limiting balance-sheet flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded in 2025 (up ~15% YoY after modest declines in 2023–2024), showing improving top-line momentum. Profitability is positive but structurally thin for the industry: 2025 net margin was ~2.1% (down from ~3.2% in 2024) while EBITDA margin improved to ~6.4%. Net income fell in 2025 versus 2024 despite higher revenue, indicating margin pressure and a more volatile earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated: 2025 debt-to-equity is ~2.0x (still high, though improved versus 2020–2023 levels that were ~4–6x). Total debt increased materially in 2025 versus 2024, which raises financial risk even as equity also grew. Returns on equity are positive but cooled in 2025 (~6.6%) after stronger prior-year performance, suggesting less efficient profitability relative to the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved in 2025 with operating cash flow rising to ~$1.19B and free cash flow to ~$615M (strong growth versus 2024). However, cash conversion remains a watch item: free cash flow was only ~52% of net income in 2025 (better than 2024 but below the ~65–75% seen in 2020–2023). Operating cash flow relative to revenue is also low (~0.30% in 2025), implying tight cash efficiency despite higher absolute dollars.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.20B	22.69B	23.07B	25.73B	17.60B
Gross Profit	2.10B	1.73B	1.18B	1.19B	1.17B
EBITDA	1.82B	1.03B	829.00M	870.00M	887.00M
Net Income	527.00M	716.00M	311.00M	397.00M	446.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	28.36B	14.38B	6.85B	6.86B	5.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	891.00M	94.00M	29.00M	82.00M	25.00M
Total Debt	16.11B	8.00B	4.11B	4.12B	3.79B
Total Liabilities	20.35B	10.31B	5.87B	5.91B	5.00B
Stockholders Equity	8.01B	4.07B	978.00M	942.00M	811.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	615.00M	205.00M	385.00M	375.00M	369.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.19B	549.00M	600.00M	561.00M	543.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.81B	477.00M	-288.00M	-464.00M	-387.00M
Financing Cash Flow	2.41B	-961.00M	-365.00M	-40.00M	-228.00M

Sunoco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 66.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.22, above the 50-day MA of 59.36, and above the 200-day MA of 52.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SUN.

Sunoco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUN	68 Neutral	$13.54B	13.57	7.27%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
UGP	64 Neutral	$5.44B	9.20	15.50%	8.03%	-3.51%	3.75%
DK	62 Neutral	$2.72B	5.68	-14.06%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%
DINO	62 Neutral	$10.80B	14.84	6.25%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
PBF	57 Neutral	$5.51B	-19.51	-3.05%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CVI	47 Neutral	$3.31B	94.69	4.13%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%

Sunoco Corporate Events

Sunoco Completes $1.2 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On March 9, 2026, Sunoco LP completed a $1.2 billion private offering of senior unsecured notes, issuing $600 million of 5.375% notes due 2031 and $600 million of 5.625% notes due 2034, guaranteed by certain subsidiaries. The notes, sold under Rule 144A and Regulation S, carry semiannual interest payments and include detailed change-of-control, redemption and default provisions that position them pari passu with Sunoco’s other senior unsecured obligations.

Sunoco expects to use the roughly $1.19 billion in net proceeds to redeem NuStar Logistics’ 6.000% notes due 2026 and its own 6.000% notes due 2027, with any remaining funds earmarked for general partnership purposes, including potential debt repayment. The transaction effectively extends the partnership’s debt maturities at lower coupons than the retiring securities, potentially easing near-term refinancing pressure and providing additional flexibility through optional redemption features and covenants governing change-of-control and cross-default events.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Upsizes Private Senior Notes Offering for Refinancing

On February 26, 2026, Sunoco LP announced it had priced an upsized private offering of $1.2 billion in senior notes, split between $600 million of 5.375% notes due 2031 and $600 million of 5.625% notes due 2034, both priced at par. The deal, increased from an initial $1.0 billion target, is expected to close on March 9, 2026, subject to customary conditions.

Sunoco plans to use the proceeds primarily to redeem in full NuStar Logistics’ 6.000% senior notes due 2026 and its own 6.000% senior notes due 2027, with any remaining funds earmarked for general partnership purposes, including potential debt repayment. The move effectively refinances higher-coupon debt with longer-dated obligations and may temporarily reduce borrowings under the revolving credit facility, signaling an effort to optimize the capital structure and extend the company’s debt maturity profile without accessing the public bond markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On February 26, 2026, Sunoco LP announced a $1 billion private offering of senior notes, split between 2031 and 2034 maturities, aimed at refinancing higher-cost debt. The partnership plans to use proceeds, together with borrowings under its revolving credit facility, to redeem in full NuStar Logistics’ 6.000% senior notes due 2026 and Sunoco’s own 6.000% senior notes due 2027, with redemptions expected around March 9 and March 30, 2026, respectively, at par plus accrued interest.

In connection with the offering, Sunoco disclosed that as of February 23, 2026, it held $500 million in cash and cash equivalents, had about $338 million outstanding under its revolver and roughly $2.1 billion in remaining borrowing capacity. The partnership also furnished unaudited pro forma condensed combined financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, giving investors additional visibility into its post-transaction capital structure and operating profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Lifts Distribution

On February 17, 2026, Sunoco LP and SunocoCorp LLC reported solid fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighted by fourth-quarter net income of $97 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $706 million excluding one-time transaction expenses and Distributable Cash Flow, as adjusted, of $442 million. Although full-year net income fell to $527 million from $866 million in 2024, Adjusted EBITDA surged to $2.05 billion and Distributable Cash Flow, as adjusted, rose to $1.38 billion, underscoring stronger cash generation.

Segment performance showed robust gains in fuel distribution, terminals and the new refinery segment, while pipeline systems remained steady, reflecting a diversified asset base. Sunoco completed the acquisition of Parkland Corporation on October 31, 2025 and closed the TanQuid acquisition in January 2026, expanding its footprint and infrastructure and ending 2025 at its long-term leverage target of about four times, while delivering an eighth straight year of growth in Distributable Cash Flow per common unit.

The partnership raised its quarterly distribution by 1.25% for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a fifth consecutive quarterly increase and reinforcing its capital allocation strategy centered on steady distribution growth. With long-term debt of about $13.4 billion, $2.5 billion in available liquidity and $651 million in 2025 capital spending skewed to growth projects, Sunoco LP appears positioned to integrate recent acquisitions, sustain infrastructure investment and support unitholder returns within its targeted leverage profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Finalizes Parkland Acquisition, Expands North American Footprint

On October 31, 2025, Sunoco LP, via SunocoCorp LLC, completed a previously announced strategic transaction to acquire all issued and outstanding common shares of Canada’s Parkland Corporation under a court-approved plan of arrangement, making Parkland an indirect wholly owned subsidiary and expanding Sunoco’s footprint in North American fuel distribution and retail. Following the closing, Sunoco filed an amended Current Report that supplements Parkland’s unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, and updated unaudited pro forma combined financial information, providing investors and other stakeholders with more detailed visibility into Parkland’s standalone performance and the combined entity’s capital structure, leverage and earnings profile after the acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Hold with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Issues 2026 Guidance and Capital Allocation Outlook

On January 6, 2026, Sunoco LP issued its 2026 guidance, projecting full-year adjusted EBITDA between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion, underpinned by an expected $125 million in synergies from the Parkland acquisition, a planned 50-day maintenance turnaround at the Burnaby Refinery starting at the end of January, the anticipated closing of the TanQuid acquisition in the first quarter, and at least $600 million in growth capital expenditures alongside $400 million to $450 million of maintenance capex. The partnership outlined a capital allocation strategy that includes a multi-year pipeline of bolt-on acquisitions of at least $500 million annually, a return to its long-term leverage target of four times in 2026, a targeted distribution growth rate of at least 5% with quarterly increase announcements, equal dividend equivalents for SunocoCorp investors, and an expected rise in distributable cash flow per common unit for the ninth consecutive year, signaling continued balance-sheet discipline and income growth for unitholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.