Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.82B
• Dividend Yield: 3.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.37M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: -3.51%
• EPS Growth: 3.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,999
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 1,115,849,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,731,857
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,369,496
• PEG Ratio: -2.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.03
• 1Y Price Target: $4.50
• Price Target Upside: 15.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $25.90B

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $4.50 ▲(15.38% Upside)

Ultrapar Participacoes SA's strong financial performance, highlighted by robust revenue growth and improved profitability, is the most significant factor driving the score. The positive earnings call further supports the company's strategic positioning and growth potential. The stock's reasonable valuation and stable technical indicators contribute to a favorable overall assessment.

Positive Factors

Leverage Reduction

Reducing leverage enhances financial stability and flexibility, allowing Ultrapar to invest in growth opportunities and withstand economic fluctuations.

Ultracargo Expansion

The expansion of Ultracargo's storage capacity strengthens Ultrapar's logistics capabilities, supporting long-term growth in the chemical and fuel distribution sectors.

Strategic Acquisition

This acquisition aligns with Ultrapar's strategy to diversify and enter high-potential sectors, positioning it for future growth in low-carbon transportation solutions.

Negative Factors

Ultragaz Volume Decline

Declining LPG sales volumes could impact revenue and profitability, indicating potential challenges in maintaining market share in the LPG segment.

Cash Flow Challenges

Declining free cash flow growth suggests difficulties in cash generation, which could limit Ultrapar's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

Sector Irregularities

Sector irregularities at Ipiranga may affect operational efficiency and financial results, posing risks to Ultrapar's fuel distribution business stability.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) is a Brazilian diversified holding company operating primarily in the fuel distribution, storage, and specialty chemicals sectors. The company is involved in the operation of the Ipiranga brand, one of Brazil's largest fuel distribution networks, along with its interests in the Ultracargo terminal for liquid bulk storage and Oxiteno, which produces chemicals and petrochemicals. Through these segments, Ultrapar provides a wide range of products and services, including fuels, lubricants, and industrial chemicals, catering to both consumer and industrial markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Ultrapar generates revenue primarily through its fuel distribution segment, notably from the sale of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products through its extensive network of Ipiranga service stations. Additionally, the company earns income from its storage operations at Ultracargo, which provides logistics and tank storage services for liquid bulk products, including fuels and chemicals. Oxiteno contributes to revenue through the production and sale of specialty chemicals and petrochemicals, serving various industries such as personal care, agriculture, and construction. Significant partnerships with suppliers and customers, along with strategic investments in infrastructure, further enhance Ultrapar's ability to optimize operations and drive profitability.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ultrapar Participacoes SA demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and efficient cash generation. The company has managed its leverage effectively, ensuring a stable balance sheet. While the income statement and cash flow metrics are impressive, maintaining leverage at current levels is essential to sustain long-term growth and mitigate financial risks.

Income Statement

Ultrapar Participacoes SA shows strong revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 21.3%, indicating robust demand in the market. The gross profit margin improved to 7.15% in TTM, reflecting better cost management. Net profit margin increased to 2.13%, demonstrating enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved, showcasing operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and profitability enhancement.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.13 in TTM, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity improved to 18.93%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a balanced capital structure. While the company has managed leverage well, maintaining this balance is crucial to mitigate financial risks.

Cash Flow

Ultrapar's free cash flow growth rate surged by 66.63% in TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.55, suggesting efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.59 further supports the company's ability to generate cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation and financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	139.82B	133.50B	126.05B	143.63B	109.73B	74.06B
Gross Profit	8.93B	8.62B	9.32B	7.36B	4.90B	4.00B
EBITDA	7.43B	5.06B	6.36B	4.50B	2.76B	2.56B
Net Income	2.97B	2.36B	2.44B	1.80B	850.46M	893.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	45.56B	39.56B	38.25B	37.08B	39.01B	36.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.02B	4.62B	6.22B	6.22B	4.08B	7.70B
Total Debt	18.49B	15.79B	13.30B	13.45B	17.85B	19.21B
Total Liabilities	26.90B	23.73B	24.22B	24.75B	28.85B	26.98B
Stockholders Equity	16.39B	15.16B	13.51B	11.71B	10.14B	9.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.84B	1.95B	2.56B	785.74M	1.31B	2.23B
Operating Cash Flow	3.48B	3.74B	3.85B	2.00B	2.59B	3.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.25B	-6.39B	-1.02B	7.90B	724.14M	-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.23B	-1.23B	-2.49B	-6.91B	-3.36B	-592.33M

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3.90
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.14, below the 50-day MA of 4.01, and above the 200-day MA of 3.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UGP.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGP	80 Outperform	$4.82B	8.78	18.26%	3.16%	-3.51%	3.75%
PARR	73 Outperform	$2.20B	9.19	17.81%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CVI	65 Neutral	$3.37B	20.43	21.78%	8.23%	-7.21%	135.72%
PBF	55 Neutral	$3.87B	―	-9.47%	3.29%	-15.35%	-81.94%
DK	51 Neutral	$2.26B	―	-115.95%	2.80%	-22.37%	-27.22%
CSAN	50 Neutral	$4.43B	―	-96.96%	―	-7.39%	-621.47%

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Corporate Events

Ultrapar Approves R$1 Billion Debenture Issuance

On November 19, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A.’s Board of Directors approved the issuance of non-convertible debentures worth one billion reais by its subsidiary, Ipiranga Produtos de Petróleo S.A. This financial move aims to bolster the company’s capital structure and is backed by a surety guarantee from Ultrapar, reflecting its commitment to fulfilling obligations and enhancing stakeholder confidence.

Ultrapar Releases Q3 2025 Financial Results and Holds Board Meeting

Ultrapar Participações S.A. released its interim financial information for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, which was reviewed by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Auditores Independentes Ltda. The review concluded that the financial statements were prepared in accordance with relevant international and Brazilian standards, with no significant issues identified. The company’s board of directors held a meeting on November 12, 2025, to discuss the financial outcomes and strategic directions, reflecting ongoing efforts to maintain transparency and compliance in financial reporting.

Ultrapar Finalizes Sale of Hidrovias Coastal Operations

On November 3, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced the completion of the sale of Hidrovias do Brasil S.A.’s coastal shipping operations to Companhia de Navegação Norsul for R$715 million. This strategic move allows Hidrovias to concentrate on more synergistic and complementary businesses, enhancing its financial position and operational focus.

Ultrapar Acquires Stake in Virtu GNL to Boost LNG Market Presence

On October 30, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced the acquisition of a 37.5% stake in Virtu GNL Participações S.A., a company specializing in LNG logistics and services. This strategic move, involving an investment of R$ 102.5 million, aligns with Ultrapar’s growth strategy in new sectors with high potential for profitability. The acquisition aims to enhance Ultrapar’s market position in low-carbon transportation solutions, with a focus on replacing diesel with LNG. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions.

Ultrapar Hosts Ultra Day 2025 to Discuss Strategic Directions

On September 18, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced that it will host its annual event, Ultra Day 2025, on September 19, 2025. This event aims to engage investors and analysts by discussing the company’s strategic direction and the performance of its portfolio companies. The event is expected to provide insights into Ultrapar’s future plans and strengthen its relationship with stakeholders.

Ultrapar Approves Key Governance and Risk Management Updates

On September 17, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. held a Board of Directors meeting where they approved updates to the Internal Bylaws and amendments to the Corporate Risk Management Policy. These changes include the appointment of a lead independent director if the Chairman is non-independent, reflecting Ultrapar’s commitment to good corporate governance and risk management. The decisions are expected to enhance the company’s operational transparency and stakeholder trust.

Ultrapar Announces Market Maker Agreement to Boost Share Liquidity

On September 1, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced a new market maker service agreement with Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., effective from September 2, 2025. This agreement aims to enhance the liquidity of Ultrapar’s common shares traded on B3, complying with Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission regulations. The agreement is indefinite and does not include any arrangements regarding voting rights or the purchase and sale of securities, impacting the company’s market presence and potentially benefiting shareholders by improving share liquidity.