Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.39B
• Dividend Yield: 8.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: -3.51%
• EPS Growth: 3.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,999
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 1,115,849,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,134,963
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,069,882
• PEG Ratio: -2.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.88
• 1Y Price Target: $5.40
• Price Target Upside: 9.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.39
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $26.35B

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(11.79% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/18/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/18/25

Ultrapar Participacoes SA's strong financial performance, highlighted by robust revenue growth and improved profitability, is the most significant factor driving the score. The positive earnings call further supports the company's strategic positioning and growth potential. The stock's reasonable valuation and stable technical indicators contribute to a favorable overall assessment.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow growth

Substantially higher free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds organic capex, strategic M&A, dividends and debt reduction without relying on capital markets. A strong cash conversion ratio supports sustained reinvestment and resilience through commodity cycles.

Improving leverage and ROE

Lower leverage and a near-19% ROE indicate effective capital deployment and a healthier balance sheet, enhancing capacity to fund growth or weather shocks. Sustained deleveraging improves credit flexibility and reduces refinancing risk over the medium term.

Strategic pivot into LNG and capacity expansion

Targeted investment in LNG logistics plus prior Ultracargo capacity growth diversifies revenue beyond traditional fuels and aligns with lower‑carbon transport trends. This structural repositioning can capture secular demand shifts and improve long‑term margins as energy mix evolves.

Negative Factors

Ultragaz LPG volume decline

A sustained drop in LPG volumes signals demand headwinds for a key segment, pressuring segment revenue and operating leverage. If volumes remain depressed, Ultragaz could face margin compression and lower returns on recent investments in the segment over the medium term.

Ultracargo revenue weakness

Storage revenues are cyclical; a notable revenue decline raises the risk that recent capacity additions remain underutilized. Prolonged lower utilization would depress returns on thick‑capex infrastructure and slow payback timelines, weakening segment profitability.

Operational/regulatory issues at Ipiranga

Operational irregularities in the core fuel distribution network create persistent execution and regulatory risk that can reduce throughput, raise compliance costs, and harm brand trust. Given Ipiranga's central role, such issues can materially affect long‑term cash flows.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ultrapar Participações S.A. engages in the gas distribution, fuel distribution, and storage businesses primarily in Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela, other Latin American countries, the United States, Canada, the Far East, Europe, and internationally. Its Gas Distribution segment distributes liquefied petroleum gas to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers primarily in the South, Southeast, and Northeast regions of Brazil. The company's Fuel Distribution segment distributes and markets gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and lubricants; operates convenience stores; and offers lubricant-changing and automotive specialized services. The company's Storage segment operates liquid bulk terminals primarily in the Southeast and Northeast regions of Brazil. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated through 7,104 Ipiranga service stations and 1,841 AmPm convenience stores; 1,149 Jet Oil franchises; 4 distribution centers; and 7 Ultracargo terminals with storage capacity of 983 thousand cubic meters. It also operates Abastece Aí, a digital payments app; and offers Km de Vantagens, a loyalty program. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Ultrapar generates revenue primarily through its fuel distribution segment, notably from the sale of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products through its extensive network of Ipiranga service stations. Additionally, the company earns income from its storage operations at Ultracargo, which provides logistics and tank storage services for liquid bulk products, including fuels and chemicals. Oxiteno contributes to revenue through the production and sale of specialty chemicals and petrochemicals, serving various industries such as personal care, agriculture, and construction. Significant partnerships with suppliers and customers, along with strategic investments in infrastructure, further enhance Ultrapar's ability to optimize operations and drive profitability.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ultrapar Participacoes SA demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and efficient cash generation. The company has managed its leverage effectively, ensuring a stable balance sheet. While the income statement and cash flow metrics are impressive, maintaining leverage at current levels is essential to sustain long-term growth and mitigate financial risks.

Income Statement

Ultrapar Participacoes SA shows strong revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 21.3%, indicating robust demand in the market. The gross profit margin improved to 7.15% in TTM, reflecting better cost management. Net profit margin increased to 2.13%, demonstrating enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved, showcasing operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and profitability enhancement.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.13 in TTM, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity improved to 18.93%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a balanced capital structure. While the company has managed leverage well, maintaining this balance is crucial to mitigate financial risks.

Cash Flow

Ultrapar's free cash flow growth rate surged by 66.63% in TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.55, suggesting efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.59 further supports the company's ability to generate cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation and financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	139.82B	133.50B	126.05B	143.63B	109.73B	74.06B
Gross Profit	8.93B	8.62B	9.32B	7.36B	4.90B	4.00B
EBITDA	7.43B	5.06B	6.36B	4.50B	2.76B	2.56B
Net Income	2.97B	2.36B	2.44B	1.80B	850.46M	893.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	45.56B	39.56B	38.25B	37.08B	39.01B	36.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.02B	4.62B	6.22B	6.22B	4.08B	7.70B
Total Debt	18.49B	15.79B	13.30B	13.45B	17.85B	19.21B
Total Liabilities	26.90B	23.73B	24.22B	24.75B	28.85B	26.98B
Stockholders Equity	16.39B	15.16B	13.51B	11.71B	10.14B	9.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.84B	1.95B	2.56B	785.74M	1.31B	2.23B
Operating Cash Flow	3.48B	3.74B	3.85B	2.00B	2.59B	3.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.25B	-6.39B	-1.02B	7.90B	724.14M	-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.23B	-1.23B	-2.49B	-6.91B	-3.36B	-592.33M

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 4.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.12, above the 50-day MA of 4.57, and above the 200-day MA of 3.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UGP.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGP	80 Outperform	$5.39B	8.35	18.26%	8.03%	-3.51%	3.75%
PARR	71 Outperform	$2.45B	4.84	27.33%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
DK	62 Neutral	$2.68B	5.68	-6.81%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%
PBF	57 Neutral	$5.34B	-19.51	-2.92%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CSAN	50 Neutral	$4.29B	-4.80	-96.96%	―	-7.39%	-621.47%
CVI	47 Neutral	$2.72B	94.69	3.77%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Corporate Events

Ultrapar Discloses Reduction of Squadra Stake to 4.95%

On January 27, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. disclosed that investment manager Squadra Investimentos – Gestão de Recursos LTDA. and its affiliate Squadra Investments – Gestão de Recursos LTDA. had reduced their aggregate stake in Ultrapar to 4.95% of the company’s common shares as of January 26, 2026, corresponding to 55,212,788 shares, including 5,423,197 common shares lent out on loan. The announcement clarifies that Squadra has no intention of altering Ultrapar’s control structure or management, signaling that the disposal of shares is a portfolio adjustment rather than an attempt at corporate influence, which should reassure the market and existing stakeholders about the stability of the company’s governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Sets April 15, 2026 Date for Annual Shareholders’ Meeting

On January 14, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced that its Annual General Shareholders’ Meeting has been scheduled for April 15, 2026, in line with its published Annual Calendar of Corporate Events. The company stated that detailed information and materials related to the meeting will be released in due course, underscoring its adherence to Brazilian CVM Resolution 81/22 and its ongoing commitment to corporate governance and regulatory transparency for investors in Brazil and abroad.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Updates Shareholders’ Agreement After Creation of Redeemable Preferred Shares

On December 26, 2025, Ultrapar’s controlling shareholder Ultra S.A. Participações held an extraordinary general meeting that approved the creation of a new class of redeemable preferred shares, defined their characteristics and executed a capital increase via the issuance of those redeemable preferred shares. In parallel, the extensive group of shareholders and related parties to Ultrapar Participações S.A.’s existing shareholders’ agreement signed an addendum amending Clause Nine to govern how exchanges of interests will work under the so‑called Migration Right for holding partners now that all Ultra shareholders, including usufructuaries and trustees, may hold redeemable preferred shares; the document also formalizes the entry of two new joining shareholders connected to an existing shareholder vehicle, signaling a further tightening and clarification of governance and ownership arrangements within Ultrapar’s controlling bloc.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Approves Strategic Plan and AI Policy on December 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A.’s Board of Directors convened to approve the company’s Strategic Plan for 2026-2035 and the budget for 2026. Additionally, they endorsed a Corporate Policy for the Use of Artificial Intelligence, reflecting the company’s commitment to integrating advanced technologies into its operations. These decisions are expected to enhance Ultrapar’s operational efficiency and strategic positioning in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Announces Interim Dividend Distribution for December 2025

On December 1, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A.’s Board of Directors approved the distribution of interim dividends amounting to R$ 1,087,307,868.00, with shareholders entitled to receive R$ 1.00 per share. The dividends will be paid starting December 16, 2025, with the record dates set for December 5 in Brazil and December 12 in the United States. This decision reflects the company’s strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to its shareholders, potentially enhancing its market position and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Announces Dividend Distribution for December 2025

On December 1, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced that its Board of Directors approved the distribution of dividends totaling R$ 1,087,307,868.00, equivalent to R$ 1.00 per common share. The dividends will be paid starting December 16, 2025, with record dates set for December 5 in Brazil and December 12 in the United States. This decision reflects the company’s strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to its shareholders, potentially enhancing its market position and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Clarifies Strategic Investment in Rumo

On November 27, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. addressed a news article from Brazil Journal regarding its growing position in Rumo, nearing a 5% stake. The company clarified its strategic approach to investments, emphasizing its commitment to transparency and adherence to legal requirements in disclosing material facts or decisions to the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Approves R$1 Billion Debenture Issuance

On November 19, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A.’s Board of Directors approved the issuance of non-convertible debentures worth one billion reais by its subsidiary, Ipiranga Produtos de Petróleo S.A. This financial move aims to bolster the company’s capital structure and is backed by a surety guarantee from Ultrapar, reflecting its commitment to fulfilling obligations and enhancing stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Releases Q3 2025 Financial Results and Holds Board Meeting

Ultrapar Participações S.A. released its interim financial information for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, which was reviewed by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Auditores Independentes Ltda. The review concluded that the financial statements were prepared in accordance with relevant international and Brazilian standards, with no significant issues identified. The company’s board of directors held a meeting on November 12, 2025, to discuss the financial outcomes and strategic directions, reflecting ongoing efforts to maintain transparency and compliance in financial reporting.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.

Ultrapar Finalizes Sale of Hidrovias Coastal Operations

On November 3, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced the completion of the sale of Hidrovias do Brasil S.A.’s coastal shipping operations to Companhia de Navegação Norsul for R$715 million. This strategic move allows Hidrovias to concentrate on more synergistic and complementary businesses, enhancing its financial position and operational focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGP) stock is a Buy with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock, see the UGP Stock Forecast page.