Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.46B
• Dividend Yield: 3.26%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.55M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: -6.18%
• EPS Growth: -9.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,999
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 1,115,849,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,624,261
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,547,625
• PEG Ratio: -2.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.00
• 1Y Price Target: $4.00
• Price Target Upside: -2.44% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $3.50 ▼(-14.63% Downside)

Ultrapar's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and attractive valuation, suggesting potential for growth. Financial performance is solid but challenged by high leverage and cash flow management issues. The earnings call highlighted both significant growth and operational challenges, contributing to a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Strong operational cash flow generation indicates effective management practices, ensuring liquidity and supporting long-term investments.

Net Income Growth

Significant net income growth reflects improved operational performance and strategic financial management, enhancing shareholder value.

Debt Management

Effective debt management reduces financial risk and interest burden, improving financial stability and enabling future growth.

Negative Factors

Ipiranga Segment Challenges

Challenges in the Ipiranga segment, such as volume and EBITDA declines, could impact revenue and profitability if not addressed.

Ultragaz Volume Decline

Declining volumes in Ultragaz reflect market challenges, potentially affecting revenue and requiring strategic adjustments.

Regulatory Challenges

Regulatory uncertainties in the LPG market pose risks to operations and investment, necessitating proactive compliance strategies.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ultrapar Participações S.A. engages in the gas distribution, fuel distribution, and storage businesses primarily in Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela, other Latin American countries, the United States, Canada, the Far East, Europe, and internationally. Its Gas Distribution segment distributes liquefied petroleum gas to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers primarily in the South, Southeast, and Northeast regions of Brazil. The company's Fuel Distribution segment distributes and markets gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and lubricants; operates convenience stores; and offers lubricant-changing and automotive specialized services. The company's Storage segment operates liquid bulk terminals primarily in the Southeast and Northeast regions of Brazil. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated through 7,104 Ipiranga service stations and 1,841 AmPm convenience stores; 1,149 Jet Oil franchises; 4 distribution centers; and 7 Ultracargo terminals with storage capacity of 983 thousand cubic meters. It also operates Abastece Aí, a digital payments app; and offers Km de Vantagens, a loyalty program. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Ultrapar generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from its retail fuel distribution, primarily through Ipiranga-branded gas stations, which sell gasoline, diesel, and other fuel products to consumers. The company also profits from its chemical operations, producing petrochemical products and specialty chemicals that are sold to various industries. Additionally, Ultrapar has a significant logistics segment, managing storage and transportation services for fuels and chemicals, which contributes to its earnings. Strategic partnerships, such as those with suppliers and retailers, enhance its supply chain efficiency and market reach, further bolstering its revenue. Factors like market demand for fuel and chemicals, regulatory changes, and economic conditions in Brazil and surrounding regions also play critical roles in influencing Ultrapar's financial performance.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ultrapar Participacoes SA demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability margins. However, challenges in cash flow management and high leverage levels pose risks to financial stability.

Income Statement

Ultrapar Participacoes SA has shown a consistent revenue growth trajectory, with a notable TTM revenue growth rate of 1.25%. The company maintains a stable gross profit margin of around 7%, and its net profit margin has improved to 2.11% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown improvement, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, the company faces challenges in maintaining high profitability levels, as evidenced by fluctuating margins over the years.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.18 TTM, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity has improved to 19.07% TTM, showcasing effective utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a balanced capital structure. However, the relatively high debt levels could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Ultrapar's cash flow performance shows mixed results. The free cash flow growth rate has declined by 13.17% TTM, indicating potential challenges in generating free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.38, suggesting moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, which is reasonable but indicates room for improvement in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	138.14B	133.50B	126.05B	143.63B	109.73B	74.06B
Gross Profit	8.74B	8.62B	9.32B	6.39B	4.90B	4.00B
EBITDA	6.81B	5.06B	6.36B	3.25B	2.76B	2.56B
Net Income	2.91B	2.36B	2.44B	1.80B	850.46M	893.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	45.61B	39.56B	38.25B	36.44B	39.01B	36.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.99B	4.62B	6.22B	6.14B	4.08B	7.69B
Total Debt	18.94B	15.79B	13.30B	13.28B	17.73B	19.21B
Total Liabilities	27.21B	23.73B	24.22B	24.27B	28.54B	26.34B
Stockholders Equity	16.07B	15.16B	13.51B	11.71B	10.07B	9.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.97B	1.95B	2.54B	785.74M	1.31B	2.23B
Operating Cash Flow	3.93B	3.74B	3.85B	2.00B	2.59B	3.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.27B	-6.39B	-1.02B	7.90B	724.14M	-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.58B	-1.23B	-2.49B	-6.91B	-3.36B	-592.33M

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.89, above the 50-day MA of 3.45, and above the 200-day MA of 3.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.68 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UGP.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGP	74 Outperform	$4.46B	8.71	18.65%	3.26%	-6.18%	-9.87%
CSAN	58 Neutral	$2.20B	-1.04	-86.43%	―	-5.62%	-486.38%
CVI	56 Neutral	$3.70B	-11.01	-71.24%	7.57%	-15.98%	-160.88%
PARR	52 Neutral	$1.82B	-130.85	-1.67%	―	-13.09%	-103.24%
DK	51 Neutral	$1.95B	-2.33	-2960.38%	3.16%	-29.94%	-723.41%
PBF	51 Neutral	$3.58B	-3.51	-9.63%	3.65%	-18.73%	-236.79%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Corporate Events

Ultrapar Hosts Ultra Day 2025 to Discuss Strategic Directions

On September 18, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced that it will host its annual event, Ultra Day 2025, on September 19, 2025. This event aims to engage investors and analysts by discussing the company’s strategic direction and the performance of its portfolio companies. The event is expected to provide insights into Ultrapar’s future plans and strengthen its relationship with stakeholders.

Ultrapar Approves Key Governance and Risk Management Updates

On September 17, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. held a Board of Directors meeting where they approved updates to the Internal Bylaws and amendments to the Corporate Risk Management Policy. These changes include the appointment of a lead independent director if the Chairman is non-independent, reflecting Ultrapar’s commitment to good corporate governance and risk management. The decisions are expected to enhance the company’s operational transparency and stakeholder trust.

Ultrapar Announces Market Maker Agreement to Boost Share Liquidity

On September 1, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced a new market maker service agreement with Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., effective from September 2, 2025. This agreement aims to enhance the liquidity of Ultrapar’s common shares traded on B3, complying with Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission regulations. The agreement is indefinite and does not include any arrangements regarding voting rights or the purchase and sale of securities, impacting the company’s market presence and potentially benefiting shareholders by improving share liquidity.

Ultrapar Board Meeting Acknowledges Director Resignation and Confirms Executive Officers

On August 14, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. held a Board of Directors meeting where the resignation of Director Bernardo Sacic was acknowledged. The board expressed gratitude for his contributions and confirmed the executive officers’ positions, including Rodrigo de Almeida Pizzinatto as CEO, with mandates extending to the 2027 Annual General Shareholders’ Meeting.

Ultrapar Participações S.A. Releases Q2 2025 Financial Results

Ultrapar Participações S.A. released its interim financial information for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, which was reviewed by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Auditores Independentes. The review concluded that the financial information is prepared in accordance with applicable standards, ensuring transparency and compliance. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it reflects the company’s financial health and adherence to regulatory requirements, impacting investor confidence and market positioning.