Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP)
NYSE:UGP
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Ultrapar Participacoes SA
(NYSE:UGP)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(1.66% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/09/26
UGP’s score is held back mainly by middling financial quality—thin margins, weaker 2025 revenue and cash conversion, and rising leverage—despite steady profitability. Offsetting this, technicals show a generally positive longer-term trend with neutral momentum, and valuation is supportive with a low P/E and strong dividend yield. The latest earnings call adds a modest positive tilt due to record cash generation and constructive outlook, tempered by segment headwinds and near-term volatility risks.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, record operating cash generation provides durable financial flexibility: it funds capex, dividends and integration of Hidrovias without immediate reliance on markets. Over 2–6 months this improves liquidity to manage maturities and supports strategic investments and shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Thin margins & volatile revenue
Persistently thin net margins and recurring revenue volatility limit the firm's ability to build large earnings cushions. Low margin structure increases sensitivity to input cost swings and regulatory or import-parity shifts, constraining durable profitability and reducing margin of safety over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, record operating cash generation provides durable financial flexibility: it funds capex, dividends and integration of Hidrovias without immediate reliance on markets. Over 2–6 months this improves liquidity to manage maturities and supports strategic investments and shareholder returns.
Read all positive factors
Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.93B
Dividend Yield8.03%
Average Volume (3M)2.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.2
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth-3.51%
EPS Growth3.75%
CountryUS
Employees9,999
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding1,115,849,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,998,810
30 Day Avg. Volume2,605,687
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.16
P/FCF Ratio14.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.40Price Target Upside-0.18% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.91B
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ultrapar Participações S.A. engages in the gas distribution, fuel distribution, and storage businesses primarily in Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela, other Latin American countries, the United States, Canada, the Far East, Europe, and internatio...
How the Company Makes Money
Ultrapar generates revenue primarily through its fuel distribution segment, notably from the sale of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products through its extensive network of Ipiranga service stations. Additionally, the company earns income ...
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong operational performance and record cash generation in 2025, with recurring EBITDA growth, significant contributions from Hidrovias and a healthy dividend policy and leverage profile. Key strategic moves (acquisitions, SAP migration, investment plan) and robust Ipiranga cash generation underpin a constructive outlook. Near-term challenges include Q4 nonrecurring impacts that depressed reported adjusted EBITDA and net income, volume and ramp-up pressures at Ultracargo, modest LPG volume declines at Ultragaz, and potential short-term volatility from import windows and navigability issues for Hidrovias. On balance, the positive operational and cash-flow achievements outweigh the transitory and segment-specific headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Operating Cash Generation
Operating cash generation reached a record BRL 5.5 billion in 2025, driven by higher operating result, consolidation of Hidrovias (contribution of BRL 855 million) and lower working capital needs (partially offset by BRL 1.0 billion settlement of draft discount).
Negative Updates
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income Impacted by Nonrecurring Effects
Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was BRL 1.6 billion, down 34% YoY due to nonrecurring effects; Q4 net income was BRL 256 million, down 71% YoY (without those effects net income would have been BRL 439 million, +49% YoY).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Operating Cash Generation
Operating cash generation reached a record BRL 5.5 billion in 2025, driven by higher operating result, consolidation of Hidrovias (contribution of BRL 855 million) and lower working capital needs (partially offset by BRL 1.0 billion settlement of draft discount).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance and near‑term outlook: Ultrapar set a 2026 investment plan of up to BRL 2.6 billion (≈42% earmarked for expansion) and signaled continued operational momentum into Q1‑26 — Ipiranga expects continued volume and margin growth, Ultragaz expects Q1 EBITDA roughly in line with Q1‑25, Ultracargo expects Q1 volume and recurring EBITDA above Q4‑25, while Hidrovias expects Q1 results below Q1‑25. Key 2025 and financial metrics cited to support the guidance include record operating cash generation of BRL 5.5 billion; 2025 adjusted EBITDA BRL 6.8 billion (+2% YoY) and recurring EBITDA BRL 6.2 billion (+15% YoY); Q4‑25 adjusted EBITDA BRL 1.6 billion (‑34% YoY, due to nonrecurring items) and recurring Q4 EBITDA BRL 1.7 billion (+36% YoY); 2025 net income BRL 2.5 billion (Q4 net income BRL 256 million; normalized Q4 would be BRL 439 million); 2025 CapEx BRL 2.5 billion (+15% YoY); net debt BRL 12.1 billion with leverage 1.7x (1.5x excluding the BRL 1.1 billion anticipated dividend); total dividends in 2025 of BRL 1.4 billion (BRL 1.30/share, 7% yield); Hidrovias contributed BRL 855 million to cash generation but added BRL 2.2 billion on consolidation; the company raised ~BRL 260 million in incentivized credit at a weighted average cost of 87% of CDI and noted an average debt cost below 100% CDI, while highlighting roughly BRL 4.5 billion of debt maturities to manage in the year.Ultrapar Participacoes SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 139.57B | 133.50B | 126.05B | 143.63B | 109.73B |
| Gross Profit | 9.18B | 8.62B | 9.32B | 7.36B | 4.90B |
| EBITDA | 6.06B | 5.06B | 6.36B | 4.50B | 2.76B |
| Net Income | 2.41B | 2.36B | 2.44B | 1.80B | 850.46M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 50.27B | 39.56B | 38.25B | 37.08B | 39.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.02B | 4.62B | 6.22B | 6.22B | 4.08B |
| Total Debt | 21.82B | 15.79B | 13.30B | 13.45B | 17.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 32.54B | 23.73B | 24.22B | 24.75B | 28.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.66B | 15.16B | 13.51B | 11.71B | 10.14B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.52B | 1.95B | 2.56B | 785.74M | 1.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.48B | 3.74B | 3.85B | 2.00B | 2.59B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.80B | -6.39B | -1.02B | 7.90B | 724.14M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 433.28M | -1.23B | -2.49B | -6.91B | -3.36B |
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Technical Analysis
Positive
5.41
Price Trends
4.93
Positive
4.40
Positive
3.85
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
62.91
Neutral
93.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.06, above the 50-day MA of 4.93, and above the 200-day MA of 3.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UGP.
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.01B | 4.84 | 28.59% | ― | -10.11% | -7.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $5.93B | 9.20 | 15.50% | 8.03% | -3.51% | 3.75% | |
62 Neutral | $2.65B | 5.68 | -14.06% | 3.42% | -22.37% | -27.22% | |
57 Neutral | $5.77B | -19.51 | -3.05% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
47 Neutral | $3.29B | 94.69 | 4.13% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% | |
42 Neutral | $4.10B | -1.42 | -147.93% | ― | -7.39% | -621.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes SA
5.41
2.42
81.18%
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PARR
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61.46
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CSAN
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4.16
-1.23
-22.82%
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Corporate Events
Ultrapar Files 2025 Results With Clean Deloitte Opinion and Detailed Governance Disclosures
Mar 5, 2026
Ultrapar Holdings Inc., the U.S.-listed vehicle of Brazilian conglomerate Ultrapar Participações S.A., has released its individual and consolidated financial statements for the year and quarter ended December 31, 2025, along with a 2025 ...
Ultrapar Sets R$ 2.6 Billion Investment Plan for 2026, Adding Hidrovias Capex
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. unveiled a consolidated organic investment plan of R$ 2.617 billion for 2026, slightly above its 2025 plan, with the increase largely driven by the inclusion of R$ 270 million in capex for Hi...
Ultrapar Discloses Reduction of Squadra Stake to 4.95%
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. disclosed that investment manager Squadra Investimentos – Gestão de Recursos LTDA. and its affiliate Squadra Investments – Gestão de Recursos LTDA. had reduced their ...
Ultrapar Sets April 15, 2026 Date for Annual Shareholders’ Meeting
Jan 15, 2026
On January 14, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced that its Annual General Shareholders’ Meeting has been scheduled for April 15, 2026, in line with its published Annual Calendar of Corporate Events. The company stated that...
Ultrapar Updates Shareholders’ Agreement After Creation of Redeemable Preferred Shares
Dec 29, 2025
On December 26, 2025, Ultrapar’s controlling shareholder Ultra S.A. Participações held an extraordinary general meeting that approved the creation of a new class of redeemable preferred shares, defined their characteristics and exe...
Ultrapar Approves Strategic Plan and AI Policy on December 10, 2025
Dec 10, 2025
On December 10, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A.’s Board of Directors convened to approve the company’s Strategic Plan for 2026-2035 and the budget for 2026. Additionally, they endorsed a Corporate Policy for the Use of Arti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.