Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.22B
• Dividend Yield: 1.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: -4.58%
• EPS Growth: -23.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,999
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 1,115,507,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,179,563
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,085,637
• PEG Ratio: -1.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $3.70
• Price Target Upside: 24.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(1.01%Upside)

Ultrapar Participacoes SA demonstrates stable financial health and strategic growth initiatives, but faces challenges with profitability and increased operational costs. While the stock's valuation is appealing and offers a solid dividend yield, the technical analysis shows bearish momentum, warranting cautious optimism.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

Ultra's consolidated net debt decreased, indicating improved financial health.

Earnings

Ipiranga delivered a stronger-than-expected margin.

Financial Performance

Net income was significantly above expectations, largely explained by the non-recurring gains from tax credits.

Negative Factors

Equity Income

Hidrovias’ equity income contribution was way lower than expected.

Investment Reduction

Ultracargo's investment amount shows a significant reduction, primarily due to the conclusion of capacity expansions and a lighter pipeline for the next year.

Operational Performance

The lack of operational momentum in the short term, due to an oversupply and subdued demand environment, prevents a more bullish outlook on the stock.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ultrapar Participações S.A. engages in the gas distribution, fuel distribution, and storage businesses primarily in Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela, other Latin American countries, the United States, Canada, the Far East, Europe, and internationally. Its Gas Distribution segment distributes liquefied petroleum gas to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers primarily in the South, Southeast, and Northeast regions of Brazil. The company's Fuel Distribution segment distributes and markets gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and lubricants; operates convenience stores; and offers lubricant-changing and automotive specialized services. The company's Storage segment operates liquid bulk terminals primarily in the Southeast and Northeast regions of Brazil. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated through 7,104 Ipiranga service stations and 1,841 AmPm convenience stores; 1,149 Jet Oil franchises; 4 distribution centers; and 7 Ultracargo terminals with storage capacity of 983 thousand cubic meters. It also operates Abastece Aí, a digital payments app; and offers Km de Vantagens, a loyalty program. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Ultrapar Participacoes SA generates revenue primarily through its fuel distribution and chemical production operations. Ipiranga, one of its main subsidiaries, contributes significantly to its earnings by selling gasoline, diesel, and ethanol across its extensive network of service stations. Ultragaz, another crucial revenue stream, earns money by distributing LPG to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Oxiteno adds to the company's revenue by producing and selling specialty chemicals used in various industries, while Ultracargo generates income through its logistics services, offering storage solutions for liquid bulk. Key partnerships with suppliers and a well-established distribution network bolster Ultrapar's revenue streams.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ultrapar Participacoes SA exhibits stable financial health with consistent revenue growth and operational efficiency. The company's leverage is moderate, supported by a strong equity position and effective cash flow management. However, there is room for improvement in profitability and monitoring debt levels remains crucial.

Income Statement

Ultrapar Participacoes SA shows a solid financial performance with a consistent revenue growth trend. The TTM revenue indicates a growth of 2.20% from the previous year. Gross profit margin stands at 6.37%, reflecting efficiency in managing production costs. The net profit margin is 1.66%, which, while positive, suggests room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are 3.76% and 4.10% respectively, indicating stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.99, suggesting balanced leverage. The equity ratio of 40.26% shows a healthy capital structure. Return on equity (ROE) is 14.90%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the total debt remains significant, indicating potential risks if interest rates rise or earnings decline.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement demonstrates strong operational cash generation with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.81, highlighting robust cash conversion. Free cash flow grew by 16.28% compared to the prior period, indicating effective capital management. While the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.00 suggests all earnings are effectively translated into free cash flow, the cash flow from financing activities indicates a strategic reduction in debt.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	133.50B	126.05B	143.63B	109.73B	74.06B
Gross Profit	8.62B	9.32B	6.39B	4.90B	4.00B
EBITDA	5.06B	6.36B	3.25B	2.76B	2.56B
Net Income	2.36B	2.44B	1.80B	850.46M	893.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	39.56B	38.25B	36.44B	39.01B	36.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.62B	6.22B	6.14B	4.08B	7.69B
Total Debt	15.79B	13.30B	13.28B	17.73B	19.21B
Total Liabilities	23.73B	24.22B	24.27B	28.54B	26.34B
Stockholders Equity	15.16B	13.51B	11.71B	10.07B	9.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.95B	2.54B	785.74M	1.31B	2.23B
Operating Cash Flow	3.74B	3.85B	2.00B	2.59B	3.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.39B	-1.02B	7.90B	724.14M	-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.23B	-2.49B	-6.91B	-3.36B	-592.33M

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.11, below the 50-day MA of 3.07, and below the 200-day MA of 3.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UGP.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	67 Neutral	$15.23B	9.43	6.27%	5.39%	4.07%	-71.82%
DINO	66 Neutral	$8.45B	35.13	-1.49%	5.47%	-11.17%	-109.60%
UGP	65 Neutral	$3.22B	8.07	14.87%	1.51%	-4.58%	-23.80%
CSAN	57 Neutral	$1.93B	5.14	-69.81%	7.66%	-2.76%	-628.74%
CVI	55 Neutral	$2.80B	268.82	-27.14%	9.79%	-16.21%	-130.18%
PBF	54 Neutral	$2.78B	―	-18.01%	4.42%	-16.30%	-160.78%
DK	51 Neutral	$1.50B	―	-151.69%	5.15%	-29.23%	-931.43%