Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP)
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Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) AI Stock Analysis

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UGP

Ultrapar Participacoes SA

(NYSE:UGP)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(28.21% Upside)
Ultrapar Participacoes SA's stock is rated positively due to strong technical momentum and attractive valuation. Financial performance is solid, with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability, though leverage and cash flow management are areas for improvement. The recent earnings call supports a positive outlook, despite some sector challenges.
Positive Factors
Leverage Reduction
Reducing leverage enhances financial stability and flexibility, allowing Ultrapar to invest in growth opportunities and withstand economic fluctuations.
Ultracargo Expansion
The expansion of Ultracargo's storage capacity strengthens Ultrapar's logistics capabilities, supporting long-term growth in the chemical and fuel distribution sectors.
Strategic Acquisition
This acquisition aligns with Ultrapar's strategy to diversify and enter high-potential sectors, positioning it for future growth in low-carbon transportation solutions.
Negative Factors
Ultragaz Volume Decline
Declining LPG sales volumes could impact revenue and profitability, indicating potential challenges in maintaining market share in the LPG segment.
Cash Flow Challenges
Declining free cash flow growth suggests difficulties in cash generation, which could limit Ultrapar's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.
Sector Irregularities
Sector irregularities at Ipiranga may affect operational efficiency and financial results, posing risks to Ultrapar's fuel distribution business stability.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUltrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) is a Brazilian multinational company operating primarily in the fuel distribution, chemical, and logistics sectors. Founded in 1937 and headquartered in São Paulo, Ultrapar is known for its extensive network of fuel stations under the Ipiranga brand and its presence in the chemical industry through its subsidiary Ultracargo. The company also engages in the production and distribution of specialty chemicals and related products, catering to diverse markets including automotive, agricultural, and industrial applications.
How the Company Makes MoneyUltrapar generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from its retail fuel distribution, primarily through Ipiranga-branded gas stations, which sell gasoline, diesel, and other fuel products to consumers. The company also profits from its chemical operations, producing petrochemical products and specialty chemicals that are sold to various industries. Additionally, Ultrapar has a significant logistics segment, managing storage and transportation services for fuels and chemicals, which contributes to its earnings. Strategic partnerships, such as those with suppliers and retailers, enhance its supply chain efficiency and market reach, further bolstering its revenue. Factors like market demand for fuel and chemicals, regulatory changes, and economic conditions in Brazil and surrounding regions also play critical roles in influencing Ultrapar's financial performance.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong financial performance with significant growth in adjusted EBITDA, net income, and cash generation. The company successfully reduced leverage and expanded its Ultracargo terminal. However, challenges remain in the LPG market with declining volumes, and Ipiranga continues to face sector irregularities. Overall, the positive financial achievements and strategic expansions outweigh the challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Extraordinary Tax Credits Recognition
BRL 238 million in extraordinary tax credits recognized at Ipiranga, contributing significantly to financial results.
Leverage Reduction
Leverage reduced from 1.9x to 1.7x due to strong cash generation and Ultrapar's EBITDA growth, even after paying BRL 326 million in dividends.
Ultracargo Expansion
Completed expansion of the Ultracargo terminal in Santos, adding 34,000 cubic meters of storage capacity.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Ultrapar's adjusted EBITDA was BRL 1.9 billion, a 27% increase year-over-year, with recurring adjusted EBITDA at BRL 1.8 billion, an 18% increase compared to the previous year.
Net Income Increase
Net income for the quarter reached BRL 772 million, an 11% increase year-over-year, driven by higher operating results and tax credits.
Strong Cash Generation
Operating cash generation was BRL 2.1 billion, almost 3x the cash generated in the same period last year.
Hidrovias Performance
Volume handled in the quarter grew by 30% year-over-year, contributing to record performance and EBITDA growth.
Negative Updates
Ultragaz Volume Decline
The volume of LPG sold in the third quarter was 6% lower than the same period in 2024, with decreases in both bottled and bulk segments.
Ultracargo Revenue Decrease
Net revenue for Ultracargo totaled BRL 243 million, a 9% decrease compared to the same period last year, due to lower demand and volumes.
Ipiranga Challenges
Ipiranga faced challenges with irregularities in the sector, impacting results, despite higher sales volume and lower expenses.
Company Guidance
During the Ultrapar earnings release call for the third quarter of 2025, several key metrics and operational highlights were discussed. Ipiranga recognized BRL 238 million in extraordinary tax credits, contributing to Ultrapar's adjusted EBITDA of BRL 1.9 billion, a 27% year-over-year increase. The company's net income rose by 11% year-over-year to BRL 772 million. Despite paying BRL 326 million in dividends and settling a BRL 258 million draft discount, leverage was reduced from 1.9x to 1.7x due to strong cash generation. CapEx increased by 46% to BRL 756 million, driven by investments in Hidrovias and Ipiranga. Ultracargo expanded its storage capacity, while Ultragaz reported higher EBITDA despite a 6% drop in LPG sales volumes. Hidrovias saw a 30% growth in volume handled, with adjusted EBITDA more than doubling year-over-year to BRL 332 million. Additionally, Ultrapar completed the sale of its Hidrovias Cabotage operation for BRL 715 million and signed an agreement to acquire a 37.5% stake in Virtu for BRL 102 million. The company anticipates continued market recovery and aims to strategically position itself for growth and profitability.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ultrapar Participacoes SA demonstrates a solid financial position with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The company effectively utilizes its equity to generate returns, although its leverage remains a point of concern. Cash flow management presents challenges, particularly in free cash flow generation. Overall, the company is on a stable growth trajectory but must address leverage and cash flow issues to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Ultrapar Participacoes SA has shown a consistent revenue growth trajectory, with a notable TTM revenue growth rate of 1.25%. The company maintains a stable gross profit margin of around 7%, and its net profit margin has improved to 2.11% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown improvement, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, the company faces challenges in maintaining high profitability levels, as evidenced by fluctuating margins over the years.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.18 TTM, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity has improved to 19.07% TTM, showcasing effective utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a balanced capital structure. However, the relatively high debt levels could pose risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Ultrapar's cash flow performance shows mixed results. The free cash flow growth rate has declined by 13.17% TTM, indicating potential challenges in generating free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.38, suggesting moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, which is reasonable but indicates room for improvement in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue138.14B133.50B126.05B143.63B109.73B74.06B
Gross Profit8.74B8.62B9.32B6.39B4.90B4.00B
EBITDA6.81B5.06B6.36B3.25B2.76B2.56B
Net Income2.91B2.36B2.44B1.80B850.46M893.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets45.61B39.56B38.25B36.44B39.01B36.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.99B4.62B6.22B6.14B4.08B7.69B
Total Debt18.94B15.79B13.30B13.28B17.73B19.21B
Total Liabilities27.21B23.73B24.22B24.27B28.54B26.34B
Stockholders Equity16.07B15.16B13.51B11.71B10.07B9.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.97B1.95B2.54B785.74M1.31B2.23B
Operating Cash Flow3.93B3.74B3.85B2.00B2.59B3.14B
Investing Cash Flow-2.27B-6.39B-1.02B7.90B724.14M-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow-2.58B-1.23B-2.49B-6.91B-3.36B-592.33M

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.90
Price Trends
50DMA
3.94
Positive
100DMA
3.54
Positive
200DMA
3.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.11
Negative
RSI
65.40
Neutral
STOCH
90.02
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.98, below the 50-day MA of 3.94, and above the 200-day MA of 3.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UGP.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$4.68B9.0818.65%3.13%-6.18%-9.87%
70
Outperform
$2.18B9.2717.81%-10.11%-7.00%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
65
Neutral
$4.45B-83.87%-5.62%-486.38%
63
Neutral
$3.69B22.3821.78%7.51%-7.21%135.72%
58
Neutral
$4.48B-9.47%3.18%-15.35%-81.94%
57
Neutral
$2.45B-115.95%2.50%-22.37%-27.22%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes SA
4.27
1.00
30.58%
CVI
CVR Energy
36.75
17.93
95.27%
DK
Delek US Holdings
39.36
21.64
122.12%
PBF
PBF Energy
38.71
9.10
30.73%
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
41.13
23.48
133.03%
CSAN
Cosan
5.19
-2.67
-33.97%

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Corporate Events

Ultrapar Releases Q3 2025 Financial Results and Holds Board Meeting
Nov 13, 2025

Ultrapar Participações S.A. released its interim financial information for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, which was reviewed by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Auditores Independentes Ltda. The review concluded that the financial statements were prepared in accordance with relevant international and Brazilian standards, with no significant issues identified. The company’s board of directors held a meeting on November 12, 2025, to discuss the financial outcomes and strategic directions, reflecting ongoing efforts to maintain transparency and compliance in financial reporting.

Ultrapar Finalizes Sale of Hidrovias Coastal Operations
Nov 3, 2025

On November 3, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced the completion of the sale of Hidrovias do Brasil S.A.’s coastal shipping operations to Companhia de Navegação Norsul for R$715 million. This strategic move allows Hidrovias to concentrate on more synergistic and complementary businesses, enhancing its financial position and operational focus.

Ultrapar Acquires Stake in Virtu GNL to Boost LNG Market Presence
Oct 31, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced the acquisition of a 37.5% stake in Virtu GNL Participações S.A., a company specializing in LNG logistics and services. This strategic move, involving an investment of R$ 102.5 million, aligns with Ultrapar’s growth strategy in new sectors with high potential for profitability. The acquisition aims to enhance Ultrapar’s market position in low-carbon transportation solutions, with a focus on replacing diesel with LNG. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions.

Ultrapar Hosts Ultra Day 2025 to Discuss Strategic Directions
Sep 19, 2025

On September 18, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced that it will host its annual event, Ultra Day 2025, on September 19, 2025. This event aims to engage investors and analysts by discussing the company’s strategic direction and the performance of its portfolio companies. The event is expected to provide insights into Ultrapar’s future plans and strengthen its relationship with stakeholders.

Ultrapar Approves Key Governance and Risk Management Updates
Sep 18, 2025

On September 17, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. held a Board of Directors meeting where they approved updates to the Internal Bylaws and amendments to the Corporate Risk Management Policy. These changes include the appointment of a lead independent director if the Chairman is non-independent, reflecting Ultrapar’s commitment to good corporate governance and risk management. The decisions are expected to enhance the company’s operational transparency and stakeholder trust.

Ultrapar Announces Market Maker Agreement to Boost Share Liquidity
Sep 2, 2025

On September 1, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced a new market maker service agreement with Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., effective from September 2, 2025. This agreement aims to enhance the liquidity of Ultrapar’s common shares traded on B3, complying with Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission regulations. The agreement is indefinite and does not include any arrangements regarding voting rights or the purchase and sale of securities, impacting the company’s market presence and potentially benefiting shareholders by improving share liquidity.

Ultrapar Board Meeting Acknowledges Director Resignation and Confirms Executive Officers
Aug 15, 2025

On August 14, 2025, Ultrapar Participações S.A. held a Board of Directors meeting where the resignation of Director Bernardo Sacic was acknowledged. The board expressed gratitude for his contributions and confirmed the executive officers’ positions, including Rodrigo de Almeida Pizzinatto as CEO, with mandates extending to the 2027 Annual General Shareholders’ Meeting.

Ultrapar Participações S.A. Releases Q2 2025 Financial Results
Aug 14, 2025

Ultrapar Participações S.A. released its interim financial information for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, which was reviewed by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Auditores Independentes. The review concluded that the financial information is prepared in accordance with applicable standards, ensuring transparency and compliance. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it reflects the company’s financial health and adherence to regulatory requirements, impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 14, 2025