Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)
NYSE:DINO
Top Page
HF Sinclair Corporation
(NYSE:DINO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$54.00
â–²(0.35% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
Overall score reflects stable but cyclical fundamentals (improved earnings and a solid balance sheet, offset by contracting revenue and softer/volatile free cash flow). Technicals are currently bearish, while valuation is supportive due to a moderate P/E and ~4% dividend yield. The latest earnings call adds both upside from disciplined capex and strategic projects and downside from SRE dependence, turnaround impacts, and governance/disclosure uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Improving balance sheet and liquidity
Manageable, declining leverage and ample liquidity give HF Sinclair durable financial flexibility. Debt down to $2.77B with debt-to-equity near 0.30 and reported total liquidity ~ $3.0B supports sustaining/growth capex, dividends and buybacks and reduces refinancing stress through commodity cycles.
Diversified marketing and midstream growth
Expansion in marketing and midstream builds more stable, fee-like earnings that reduce pure-refining cyclicality. Record marketing EBITDA, rapid branded-site growth and the Green Trail JV deepen retail presence and create logistics synergies that should steady margins and cash flow over the medium term.
Operational scale and cost improvement
Higher throughput and lower per-barrel operating costs reflect improved unit economics and reliability. Sustained scale reduces fixed-cost per barrel and supports margin durability through cycles, while operating-cost declines provide a structural edge versus less-efficient regional peers.
Negative Factors
Dependence on SRE-related gains
A material portion of recent EBITDA and cash improvements stems from SRE waivers, making near-term profitability and FCF vulnerable to regulatory reversals. Reliance on discretionary regulatory benefits heightens earnings volatility and reduces predictability of medium-term free cash flow.
Renewable diesel margin and volume weakness
Renewables face persistent margin and volume pressure and are highly sensitive to RIN prices and feedstock availability. Structural feedstock cost volatility and policy exposure make the segment's contribution to durable earnings uncertain and limit reliable near‑term cash generation from renewables.
Governance and leadership uncertainty
A CEO leave and an Audit Committee review create governance and disclosure uncertainty that can delay strategic decisions and weaken stakeholder confidence. Prolonged leadership or disclosure issues risk operational distraction and can hamper execution of medium-term initiatives and capital allocation.
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.70B
Dividend Yield4.26%
Average Volume (3M)2.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth-9.55%
EPS Growth27.65%
CountryUS
Employees5,297
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.20
Shares Outstanding180,273,200
10 Day Avg. Volume4,184,642
30 Day Avg. Volume2,860,714
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio9.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$56.89Price Target Upside5.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.09B
HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, it supplies fuels to approximately 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 300 additional locations, as well as engages in the growing renewables business. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum industry. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHF Sinclair generates revenue primarily through the refining of crude oil into various petroleum products, which are then sold to consumers and businesses. The company operates refineries that convert raw crude oil into finished products, allowing it to capitalize on the price difference between crude oil and refined products. Key revenue streams include the sale of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as the provision of ancillary services such as transportation and storage of petroleum products. Additionally, HF Sinclair may engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility in the oil markets. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and distribution networks also contribute to its earnings, as these relationships ensure a steady supply of crude oil and efficient delivery of products to end markets.
HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented materially improved operational and financial results for 2025 — including record throughput, strong adjusted EBITDA (full-year $2.3B) and meaningful shareholder returns — as well as strategic initiatives (JV formation, midstream expansion, El Dorado project) and healthy liquidity. Offsetting these positives are important risks and near‑term weaknesses: a Q4 GAAP net loss driven by special items, reliance on SREs for a large portion of 2025 EBITDA and cash, renewable diesel and lubricants margin pressures, working capital headwinds, planned turnarounds that pressure early‑2026 runs, and governance/disclosure uncertainty related to the CEO voluntary leave and an Audit Committee review. Taken together, the operational and cash‑return progress is strong but tempered by governance/disclosure risk and exposure to policy and cyclical factors, leaving a balanced near‑term outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA
Reported full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2,300,000,000 and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $564,000,000, up from $28,000,000 in Q4 2024 (increase of ~1,914%).
Refining Segment Turnaround to Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Fourth-quarter refining adjusted EBITDA (ex-LCM and other adjustments) of $403,000,000 versus negative $169,000,000 in Q4 2024 — large absolute improvement driven by higher adjusted refinery gross margins.
Record Throughput and Lower Operating Costs
Set annual throughput record of 652,000 barrels per day and achieved operating expense per throughput barrel of $7.67; overall refining operating costs declined by $87,000,000 year‑over‑year.
Marketing Segment Growth and JV Formation
Marketing delivered record annual EBITDA of $103,000,000 (a 37% increase over the prior record) and net growth of 117 supplied branded sites; announced Green Trail Fuels LLC joint venture (50% non‑operating interest) to add >30 retail sites in Colorado and New Mexico.
Midstream and Lubricants Scale
Midstream delivered record annual adjusted EBITDA of $459,000,000; lubricants & specialties delivered annual EBITDA of $261,000,000 and integration of Industrial Oils Unlimited underway to capture regional synergies.
Large Shareholder Returns and Strong Liquidity
Returned over $724,000,000 to shareholders in 2025 (and over $4,700,000,000 since March 2022); Board declared quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share; total liquidity of ~$3,000,000,000 (including $978,000,000 cash and a $2,000,000,000 undrawn facility).
Capital Discipline and 2026 Guidance
Guidance for 2026 sustaining capital of ~$650,000,000 (down $125,000,000 vs. 2025) and $125,000,000 growth capital; expected refining runs of 585,000–615,000 bpd in 2026 reflecting planned turnarounds.
SREs and Cash Contribution
Small refinery exemption (SRE) waivers materially increased adjusted refining gross margin by $313,000,000 in Q4 2025 (includes $43,000,000 recognized from Q3) and management reported total EBITDA impact of $485,000,000 for the full year with cash impact just under $300,000,000 for the year.
Value‑Adding CapEx Projects
El Dorado vacuum furnace project to increase heavy crude processing by ~10,000 bpd with estimated capital cost of ~$55,000,000 ( ~$37,000,000 already spent) and expected annual EBITDA uplift of $25,000,000–$30,000,000.
Negative Updates
Q4 GAAP Net Loss and Special Charges
Fourth-quarter net loss attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $28,000,000 (–$0.16 per diluted share); special items collectively reduced net income by $249,000,000.
Reliance on SREs Creates Uncertainty
A meaningful portion of 2025 EBITDA and cash flow improvements are attributable to SRE waivers (Q4 benefit $313,000,000; full-year EBITDA impact $485,000,000 and cash impact just under $300,000,000), creating sensitivity to EPA decisions and future program changes.
Operational Disruptions in Q4 Refining
Seasonal weakness, a planned Puget Sound turnaround and an unplanned Artesia refinery event contributed to weaker refining earnings late in the quarter and required inventory liquidation in a falling margin environment.
Renewables Segment Weakness
Renewables reported adjusted EBITDA of negative $6,000,000 in Q4 (excluding a $7,000,000 LCM charge) and total sales volumes fell to 57,000,000 gallons in 2025 from 62,000,000 gallons in 2024.
Lubricants & Specialties Q4 Decline
Lubricants & specialty segment adjusted EBITDA declined to $43,000,000 in Q4 2025 from $70,000,000 in Q4 2024, driven by lower finished & specialty sales volumes, weaker Group II/III base oil margins, and higher operating costs (including Mississauga turnaround impacts).
Weak Q4 Operating Cash Flow and Working Capital Headwinds
Net cash provided by operations was only $8,000,000 in Q4 2025 (including $122,000,000 of turnaround spend); management noted working capital was a headwind in Q4 due to inventory build and accounts payable effects in a declining price environment.
Leadership and Disclosure Process Uncertainty
CEO Timothy Go requested a voluntary leave of absence and the Audit Committee is assessing matters relating to the company's disclosure processes; management limited comments and declined to discuss specifics, creating governance and disclosure uncertainty and negative market reaction (stock down premarket).
Renewable Diesel & Feedstock Sensitivity
Renewable diesel economics remain sensitive to RIN and feedstock dynamics; while management sees improving fundamentals, they declined to provide firm per‑gallon EBITDA guidance and noted recent catalyst work and operational changes were required.
Segment‑Specific Headwinds and Turnarounds
Planned turnarounds (Puget Sound, Woods Cross) and other maintenance/turnaround activity will weigh on run rates in early 2026 (guidance for 585,000–615,000 bpd in 2026 reflects those planned outages).
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: for full-year 2026 HF Sinclair expects sustaining capital of ~ $650 million (down $125M vs. 2025) plus ~$125 million of growth capital, plans crude throughput of 585,000–615,000 barrels per day (reflecting planned Puget Sound and Woods Cross turnarounds), is targeting a midyear final investment decision on phase one of a westward midstream pipeline expansion, and expects the El Dorado vacuum furnace project (total ~ $55M capex, $37M spent in 2025) to be completed in Q4 with ~10,000 bpd additional heavy crude capability and an expected $25–30M annual EBITDA uplift; the company reiterated it is bullish on refining margins in 2026, expects sustaining capex to trend below recent high maintenance levels, plans to grow branded sites ~10% annually (announced Green Trail Fuels JV with a 50% non‑operating interest covering >30 sites), and noted strong liquidity to fund plans (total liquidity ~ $3.0B including ~$978M cash and a $2.0B undrawn credit facility; debt ~$2.8B; debt‑to‑capital 23%, net‑debt‑to‑capital 15%); the Board declared a $0.50 per share quarterly dividend payable 03/12/2026 (record 03/02/2026).HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mid-level fundamentals: income statement shows a TTM rebound in net income ($579M) and better margins, and the balance sheet is solid with manageable, improving leverage (debt down to $2.77B; ~0.30 D/E). Offsetting this are multi-year revenue contraction (TTM -13.3%) and weakening/volatile cash flow with TTM FCF down ~29.8% despite still-positive FCF ($644M).Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a clear rebound versus 2024, with net income rising to $579M from $177M and improved operating profitability (EBITDA margin ~6.8% vs ~4.3% in 2024). However, revenue has been contracting for several years, including -13.3% in TTM, and profitability remains well below the 2022–2023 peak (when margins and earnings were materially stronger). Overall, earnings power is positive again but more cyclical and currently mid-cycle versus prior highs.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable and improving, with total debt down to $2.77B in TTM from $3.10B in 2024 and a modest debt-to-equity ratio (~0.30 in TTM). Equity remains sizable (~$9.25B), supporting balance sheet flexibility. The main weakness is lower returns on equity in the most recent periods (TTM ~6.2% and 2024 ~1.9%) compared with very strong 2022–2023 levels, reflecting softer profitability rather than balance sheet strain.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive, with TTM operating cash flow of $1.32B and free cash flow of $644M, and free cash flow covering a large portion of net income (about 79%). That said, cash flow momentum is weakening: free cash flow declined sharply versus the prior period (TTM free cash flow growth -29.8%), and operating cash flow has been less consistent over the cycle (including very weak generation in 2021). Overall, cash flow is solid but trending softer and somewhat volatile.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 26.87B | 28.58B | 31.96B | 38.20B | 18.39B |
| Gross Profit | 1.39B | 3.21B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 1.86B | 1.22B | 3.12B | 4.77B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 579.00M | 177.00M | 1.59B | 2.92B | 558.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.73B | 16.64B | 17.72B | 18.35B | 12.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 978.00M | 800.00M | 1.35B | 1.67B | 234.44M |
| Total Debt | 3.23B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 3.72B | 3.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.48B | 7.30B | 7.48B | 8.33B | 6.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.18B | 9.28B | 10.17B | 9.24B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 866.00M | 640.00M | 1.91B | 3.25B | -406.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.31B | 1.11B | 2.30B | 3.78B | 406.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -516.00M | -468.00M | -371.32M | -774.49M | -1.33B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -631.00M | -1.18B | -2.24B | -1.56B | -211.80M |
HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
53.81
Price Trends
50.33
Positive
51.02
Positive
47.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.22
Positive
55.71
Neutral
47.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.66, above the 50-day MA of 50.33, and above the 200-day MA of 47.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DINO.
HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $64.19B | 14.31 | 15.55% | 3.68% | -10.56% | -53.06% | |
69 Neutral | $64.26B | 27.01 | 9.69% | 2.74% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
68 Neutral | $61.84B | 15.00 | 23.06% | 2.24% | -6.37% | -25.83% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $9.70B | 16.25 | 6.21% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
54 Neutral | $4.60B | -26.88 | -2.92% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
47 Neutral | $2.51B | 92.81 | 3.77% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
54.10
24.80
84.63%
CVI
CVR Energy
25.02
6.90
38.08%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
211.98
79.70
60.25%
PSX
Phillips 66
159.78
44.28
38.34%
VLO
Valero Energy
217.71
99.43
84.06%
PBF
PBF Energy
39.76
20.47
106.16%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.