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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)
NYSE:DINO
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HF Sinclair Corporation
(NYSE:DINO)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$57.00
â–²(15.08% Upside)
HF Sinclair Corporation's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call highlights and positive technical indicators. The company's financial performance is stable, but profitability margins remain a concern. The valuation score is low due to a negative P/E ratio, although the dividend yield offers some compensation. The renewables segment poses challenges, but strategic growth initiatives provide a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Midstream Expansion
The planned Midstream expansion addresses supply-demand imbalances in key markets, enhancing HF Sinclair's market position and long-term growth potential by increasing capacity and optimizing infrastructure.
Cash Generation
Strong cash generation supports shareholder returns and financial stability, reflecting efficient operations and strategic focus on enhancing reliability and optimizing the portfolio.
Refining Segment Performance
The substantial increase in refining segment EBITDA indicates improved operational efficiency and market dynamics, strengthening HF Sinclair's core business and long-term profitability.
Negative Factors
Renewables Segment Challenges
Challenges in the Renewables segment, with negative EBITDA, highlight difficulties in adapting to market conditions, potentially impacting diversification and long-term growth.
Lubricants & Specialties Segment Decline
Decline in the Lubricants & Specialties segment EBITDA suggests margin pressures and reduced sales volumes, indicating potential ongoing challenges in these markets.
Profitability Margins
Low profitability margins indicate potential inefficiencies and competitive pressures, which could limit HF Sinclair's ability to improve financial performance and shareholder value.
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.25B
Dividend Yield4.26%
Average Volume (3M)2.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.2
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth-9.55%
EPS Growth27.65%
CountryUS
Employees5,297
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.44
Shares Outstanding183,948,230
10 Day Avg. Volume2,075,735
30 Day Avg. Volume2,592,207
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)0.24
P/FCF Ratio10.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.09Price Target Upside23.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, it supplies fuels to approximately 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 300 additional locations, as well as engages in the growing renewables business. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum industry. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHF Sinclair generates revenue primarily through the refining of crude oil into various petroleum products, which are then sold to consumers and businesses. The company operates refineries that convert raw crude oil into finished products, allowing it to capitalize on the price difference between crude oil and refined products. Key revenue streams include the sale of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as the provision of ancillary services such as transportation and storage of petroleum products. Additionally, HF Sinclair may engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility in the oil markets. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and distribution networks also contribute to its earnings, as these relationships ensure a steady supply of crude oil and efficient delivery of products to end markets.
HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflects a strong financial performance with significant improvements in operating efficiency and strategic growth initiatives. However, the renewables segment continues to face challenges with losses and lower sales volumes, slightly dampening the overall positive outlook.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
HF Sinclair reported third quarter net income attributable to shareholders of $403 million, or $2.15 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $459 million, or $2.44 per diluted share, compared to $96 million, or $0.51 per diluted share for the same period in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $870 million compared to $316 million in the third quarter of 2024.
Record Low Operating Expenses
The company achieved a record low operating expense of $7.12 per throughput barrel, surpassing their goal of $7.25 per barrel.
Marketing Segment Growth
The Marketing segment delivered record EBITDA of $29 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $0.11 per gallon. 146 branded sites were added through the third quarter of 2025.
Strategic Expansion Projects
HF Sinclair announced strategic projects including a jet project at the PSR refinery, and evaluating a multiphase expansion of their midstream refined products footprint across PADD 4 and PADD 5 to supply the West Coast.
Negative Updates
Renewables Segment Losses
The Renewables segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of negative $13 million for the third quarter, compared to $1 million in the third quarter of 2024.
Lower Sales Volumes in Renewables
Total sales volumes were 57 million gallons for the third quarter of 2025 compared to 69 million gallons for the same period in 2024.
Company Guidance
In the HF Sinclair Corporation's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics and strategic updates. HF Sinclair achieved a record low operating expense of $7.12 per throughput barrel, surpassing their near-term goal of $7.25 per barrel, and reported a refining segment adjusted EBITDA of $661 million, up from $110 million in the third quarter of 2024. The company returned $254 million in cash to shareholders, including $166 million in share repurchases and $94 million in regular dividends, and announced a $0.50 quarterly dividend. HF Sinclair's marketing segment achieved record EBITDA of $29 million, with an adjusted gross margin of $0.11 per gallon. The company also highlighted its strategic projects, including a jet project at the PSR refinery and a multiphase expansion of its midstream refined products footprint across PADD 4 and PADD 5, aimed at addressing supply and demand imbalances in Western markets. Looking forward, HF Sinclair maintained its guidance for 2025 capital spending at approximately $775 million in sustaining capital and $100 million in growth capital investments, with plans to run between 550,000 and 590,000 barrels per day of crude oil in the fourth quarter.HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
HF Sinclair Corporation exhibits a mixed financial performance with strengths in revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, but faces challenges in profitability margins. The company has shown resilience with improved cash flow generation, although there is room for enhancing operational efficiency. Overall, HF Sinclair maintains a stable financial position with potential for growth in profitability.Income Statement
HF Sinclair Corporation shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a modest gross profit margin of 2.07% and a net profit margin of 1.46%, which are relatively low compared to industry standards. However, the company has demonstrated a positive revenue growth rate of 16.3% in the TTM period, recovering from previous declines. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also low, at 0.56% and 4.95% respectively, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency.Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of HF Sinclair Corporation reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, indicating a conservative leverage approach. The return on equity (ROE) is 4.23% in the TTM period, showing moderate profitability. The equity ratio stands at 54.64%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the company maintains a solid balance sheet with manageable debt levels.Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals a positive trend in free cash flow growth, with a 12.07% increase in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is 76.86%, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. Despite past fluctuations, the company has improved its cash flow position, supporting its operational and financial stability.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 26.90B | 28.58B | 31.96B | 38.20B | 18.39B | 11.18B |
| Gross Profit | 2.64B | 3.21B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 2.63B | 649.86M |
| EBITDA | 1.63B | 1.22B | 3.12B | 4.77B | 1.42B | -99.61M |
| Net Income | 393.49M | 177.00M | 1.59B | 2.92B | 558.32M | -601.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.26B | 16.64B | 17.72B | 18.35B | 12.92B | 11.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.45B | 800.00M | 1.35B | 1.67B | 234.44M | 1.37B |
| Total Debt | 3.24B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 3.72B | 3.55B | 3.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.77B | 7.30B | 7.48B | 8.33B | 6.62B | 5.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.43B | 9.28B | 10.17B | 9.24B | 5.69B | 5.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 917.53M | 640.00M | 1.91B | 3.25B | -406.73M | 127.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.17B | 1.11B | 2.30B | 3.78B | 406.68M | 457.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -514.40M | -468.00M | -371.32M | -774.49M | -1.33B | -330.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -426.27M | -1.18B | -2.24B | -1.56B | -211.80M | 353.23M |
HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
49.53
Price Trends
50.66
Negative
50.99
Negative
43.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.27
Negative
53.21
Neutral
78.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.76, below the 50-day MA of 50.66, and above the 200-day MA of 43.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DINO.
HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $57.28B | 38.85 | 5.38% | 3.68% | -10.56% | -53.06% | |
68 Neutral | $9.25B | 24.20 | 4.07% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
66 Neutral | $52.96B | 18.79 | 15.98% | 2.24% | -6.37% | -25.83% | |
66 Neutral | $56.51B | 38.57 | 6.07% | 2.74% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
56 Neutral | $2.31B | 13.46 | 21.78% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% | |
49 Neutral | $3.80B | -7.03 | -9.47% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% |
* Energy Sector Average
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
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14.86
42.86%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.