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HF Sinclair Corporation
(NYSE:DINO)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$93.00
▲(5.32% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
Overall score is driven primarily by the strong TTM financial rebound (improved profitability, ROE and free cash flow with moderate leverage) and a strong upward price trend versus key moving averages. The latest earnings call reinforces strength via robust results, liquidity and capital returns, while cyclicality, regulatory uncertainty, and near-term turnaround/separation execution risks keep the score below the high-80s/90s range.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and free cash flow
Sustained TTM operating cash flow and sizable free cash flow provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex, project FIDs, debt reduction and shareholder returns. This strengthens liquidity and optionality across cycles, reducing reliance on external financing for multi-year growth plans.
Negative Factors
Earnings and cash flow cyclicality
HF Sinclair's results remain tightly linked to commodity crack spreads and utilization. This structural earnings volatility can complicate multi-year planning, weaken cash-conversion consistency and pressure returns during weaker cycles, limiting predictability for investors and creditors.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and free cash flow
Sustained TTM operating cash flow and sizable free cash flow provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex, project FIDs, debt reduction and shareholder returns. This strengthens liquidity and optionality across cycles, reducing reliance on external financing for multi-year growth plans.
Read all positive factors
HF Sinclair Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down where sales are generated across regions and retail markets, revealing geographic exposure to fuel demand, local price differentials, and regulatory or supply risks that can materially affect HF Sinclair’s top line and margins.
Breaks down where sales are generated across regions and retail markets, revealing geographic exposure to fuel demand, local price differentials, and regulatory or supply risks that can materially affect HF Sinclair’s top line and margins.
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The Fly
The FlyHF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.65B
Dividend Yield2.16%
Average Volume (3M)2.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth16.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,165
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.53
Shares Outstanding177,783,840
10 Day Avg. Volume2,920,787
30 Day Avg. Volume2,547,259
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio9.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$88.92Price Target Upside0.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)13.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$33.53B
HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as a prominent independent energy enterprise, engaged in the production and commercialization of a diverse array of petroleum products. Its offerings include conventional fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fue...
How the Company Makes Money
HF Sinclair makes money primarily by converting crude oil and other feedstocks into higher-value refined products and selling those products into wholesale and branded channels. The company’s major revenue model and earnings drivers include: (1) R...
HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented materially stronger financial performance and cash generation across the business with significant year-over-year increases in adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA, solid liquidity and a clear capital return track record. Strategic actions — including the planned tax-efficient separation of the Lubricants & Specialties segment, network expansion in Marketing, and multi-phase midstream projects — were highlighted as value-enhancing moves. Notable negatives include the retirement of the Mississauga base oil facility, early-stage separation costs and uncertainties, regulatory RIN/FRE risk, and near-term impacts from planned turnarounds. On balance, operational strength, cash returns and sizable profitability gains outweigh the execution and regulatory risks discussed.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Profitability
Net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $892 million ($4.93/diluted share); adjusted net income of $960 million ($5.31/diluted share) versus $322 million ($1.70) in Q2 2025 — adjusted net income increased ~198% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Retirement of Mississauga Base Oil Refining Assets
Company announced plans to retire base oil refining assets in Mississauga. The closure signals loss of owned base oil production capacity and requires transition to third-party supply agreements; timing and community/operational impacts noted as difficult decisions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Profitability
Net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $892 million ($4.93/diluted share); adjusted net income of $960 million ($5.31/diluted share) versus $322 million ($1.70) in Q2 2025 — adjusted net income increased ~198% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management left full‑year 2026 capital spending unchanged (subject to change) and guided third‑quarter refining runs of 590,000–620,000 bpd reflecting the El Dorado turnaround starting in September (El Dorado vacuum furnace project to enable processing of up to an additional ~10,000 bpd when completed during the fall turnaround). They expect to pursue FID on Go West Phase 1 this year (Phase 1 ~35,000 bpd targeted online in 2029, with multi‑phase potential up to ~140–150k bpd) and will carry excess cash while evaluating projects; full separation of Lubes & Specialties is planned as a tax‑efficient, capital‑light spin with LTM EBITDA targeted at ~$300–350M and retirement of the Mississauga base‑oil assets with third‑party supply arrangements. Key Q2 metrics underpinning guidance: crude oil charge averaged ~640,000 bpd (vs. 616,000 bpd LY); consolidated Q2 adjusted EBITDA $1.5B (Refining $1.0B; Lubes & Specialties $207M; Renewables $123M; Midstream $112M; Marketing $28M); Q2 net income attributable $892M ($4.93/sh) and adjusted net income $960M ($5.31/sh); net cash from operations $1.5B (including $56M turnaround spend); Q2 capex $118M; liquidity ~ $4.26B (cash ~$2.26B + $2.0B undrawn revolver); debt outstanding ~$2.8B with debt/cap ~21% and net debt/cap ~4%. Capital return and marketing targets: returned $265M in the quarter ($89M dividends, $179M buybacks), declared a $0.525 quarterly dividend (+5%), have returned ~$5.2B and repurchased >68M shares since March 2022, are tracking toward a ~50% payout objective (YTD ~40%), added 63 branded sites in Q2 with >100 in the pipeline and expect ~10% annual branded site growth.HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 31.23B | 26.87B | 28.58B | 31.96B | 38.20B | 18.39B |
| Gross Profit | 3.99B | 1.39B | 3.21B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 3.63B | 1.86B | 1.22B | 3.12B | 4.77B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 1.92B | 579.00M | 177.00M | 1.59B | 2.92B | 558.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.99B | 16.73B | 16.64B | 17.72B | 18.35B | 12.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.26B | 978.00M | 800.00M | 1.35B | 1.67B | 234.44M |
| Total Debt | 2.86B | 3.23B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 3.72B | 3.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.64B | 7.48B | 7.30B | 7.48B | 8.33B | 6.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.29B | 9.18B | 9.28B | 10.17B | 9.24B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.55B | 866.00M | 640.00M | 1.91B | 3.25B | -406.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.78B | 1.31B | 1.11B | 2.30B | 3.78B | 406.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -603.00M | -516.00M | -468.00M | -371.32M | -774.49M | -1.33B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -792.00M | -631.00M | -1.18B | -2.24B | -1.56B | -211.80M |
HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
88.30
Price Trends
78.77
Positive
71.66
Positive
61.41
Positive
Market Momentum
2.58
Positive
67.13
Neutral
84.57
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 88.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.20, above the 50-day MA of 78.77, and above the 200-day MA of 61.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DINO.
HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $16.65B | 8.90 | 19.86% | 2.27% | 16.26% | ― | |
77 Outperform | $98.38B | 14.17 | 29.94% | 1.54% | 12.92% | 898.48% | |
74 Outperform | $93.22B | 13.25 | 24.45% | 2.39% | 15.60% | 322.30% | |
74 Outperform | $8.52B | 6.25 | 24.08% | 1.78% | 13.54% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $99.81B | 12.23 | 48.71% | 1.26% | 15.19% | 331.26% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
55 Neutral | $3.54B | 51.10 | 10.48% | 1.41% | 17.88% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
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50.91
119.03%
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VLO
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PBF
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48.73
210.80%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.