HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)
NYSE:DINO
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HF Sinclair Corporation
(NYSE:DINO)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$65.00
â–²(6.70% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
Overall score reflects stable but cyclical fundamentals (improved earnings and a solid balance sheet, offset by contracting revenue and softer/volatile free cash flow). Technicals are currently bearish, while valuation is supportive due to a moderate P/E and ~4% dividend yield. The latest earnings call adds both upside from disciplined capex and strategic projects and downside from SRE dependence, turnaround impacts, and governance/disclosure uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Improving balance sheet and manageable leverage
HF Sinclair’s debt reduction to $2.77B and sizable equity (~$9.25B) materially improves financial flexibility. This stronger capital structure supports sustaining and growth capex, dividend payments, and turnaround funding, reducing refinancing risk and buffering cyclical margin swings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Reliance on Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs)
A sizable portion of recent margin and cash improvements is tied to SRE waivers, which depend on EPA policy decisions. This creates policy-driven earnings variability and makes recent performance less repeatable absent regulatory support, raising medium-term uncertainty in EBITDA and FCF sustainability.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving balance sheet and manageable leverage
HF Sinclair’s debt reduction to $2.77B and sizable equity (~$9.25B) materially improves financial flexibility. This stronger capital structure supports sustaining and growth capex, dividend payments, and turnaround funding, reducing refinancing risk and buffering cyclical margin swings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.98B
Dividend Yield4.26%
Average Volume (3M)3.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.8
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth-9.55%
EPS Growth27.65%
CountryUS
Employees5,297
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.20
Shares Outstanding180,273,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,831,772
30 Day Avg. Volume3,697,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio9.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.09Price Target Upside0.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)5.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.47B
HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The compan...
How the Company Makes Money
HF Sinclair primarily makes money by buying crude oil and other feedstocks and converting them into higher-value refined products, then selling those products into wholesale and retail channels. A significant portion of earnings is driven by the “...
HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented materially improved operational and financial results for 2025 — including record throughput, strong adjusted EBITDA (full-year $2.3B) and meaningful shareholder returns — as well as strategic initiatives (JV formation, midstream expansion, El Dorado project) and healthy liquidity. Offsetting these positives are important risks and near‑term weaknesses: a Q4 GAAP net loss driven by special items, reliance on SREs for a large portion of 2025 EBITDA and cash, renewable diesel and lubricants margin pressures, working capital headwinds, planned turnarounds that pressure early‑2026 runs, and governance/disclosure uncertainty related to the CEO voluntary leave and an Audit Committee review. Taken together, the operational and cash‑return progress is strong but tempered by governance/disclosure risk and exposure to policy and cyclical factors, leaving a balanced near‑term outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA
Reported full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2,300,000,000 and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $564,000,000, up from $28,000,000 in Q4 2024 (increase of ~1,914%).
Negative Updates
Q4 GAAP Net Loss and Special Charges
Fourth-quarter net loss attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $28,000,000 (–$0.16 per diluted share); special items collectively reduced net income by $249,000,000.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA
Reported full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2,300,000,000 and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $564,000,000, up from $28,000,000 in Q4 2024 (increase of ~1,914%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: for full-year 2026 HF Sinclair expects sustaining capital of ~ $650 million (down $125M vs. 2025) plus ~$125 million of growth capital, plans crude throughput of 585,000–615,000 barrels per day (reflecting planned Puget Sound and Woods Cross turnarounds), is targeting a midyear final investment decision on phase one of a westward midstream pipeline expansion, and expects the El Dorado vacuum furnace project (total ~ $55M capex, $37M spent in 2025) to be completed in Q4 with ~10,000 bpd additional heavy crude capability and an expected $25–30M annual EBITDA uplift; the company reiterated it is bullish on refining margins in 2026, expects sustaining capex to trend below recent high maintenance levels, plans to grow branded sites ~10% annually (announced Green Trail Fuels JV with a 50% non‑operating interest covering >30 sites), and noted strong liquidity to fund plans (total liquidity ~ $3.0B including ~$978M cash and a $2.0B undrawn credit facility; debt ~$2.8B; debt‑to‑capital 23%, net‑debt‑to‑capital 15%); the Board declared a $0.50 per share quarterly dividend payable 03/12/2026 (record 03/02/2026).HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 26.87B | 28.58B | 31.96B | 38.20B | 18.39B |
| Gross Profit | 1.39B | 3.21B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 1.86B | 1.22B | 3.12B | 4.77B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 579.00M | 177.00M | 1.59B | 2.92B | 558.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.73B | 16.64B | 17.72B | 18.35B | 12.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 978.00M | 800.00M | 1.35B | 1.67B | 234.44M |
| Total Debt | 3.23B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 3.72B | 3.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.48B | 7.30B | 7.48B | 8.33B | 6.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.18B | 9.28B | 10.17B | 9.24B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 866.00M | 640.00M | 1.91B | 3.25B | -406.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.31B | 1.11B | 2.30B | 3.78B | 406.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -516.00M | -468.00M | -371.32M | -774.49M | -1.33B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -631.00M | -1.18B | -2.24B | -1.56B | -211.80M |
HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
60.92
Price Trends
55.24
Positive
52.55
Positive
49.78
Positive
Market Momentum
2.34
Negative
58.16
Neutral
65.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.97, above the 50-day MA of 55.24, and above the 200-day MA of 49.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DINO.
HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $70.39B | 11.90 | 15.90% | 3.68% | -10.56% | -53.06% | |
69 Neutral | $72.20B | 10.87 | 9.88% | 2.74% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
68 Neutral | $70.20B | 12.26 | 24.01% | 2.24% | -6.37% | -25.83% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $10.98B | 14.84 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
57 Neutral | $5.39B | -19.51 | -3.05% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
47 Neutral | $3.18B | 94.69 | 4.13% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
DINO
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.