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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)
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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) AI Stock Analysis

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DINO

HF Sinclair Corporation

(NYSE:DINO)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$54.00
▲(4.73% Upside)
HF Sinclair Corporation's stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and positive earnings call highlights, despite valuation concerns due to negative earnings. The robust balance sheet provides stability, while operational improvements could enhance future performance.
Positive Factors
Dividends
DINO's dividend yield is 6%, which is considered safe despite limited free cash flow generation this year.
Financial Performance
DINO results beat expectations, while it is positioned well to take advantage of seasonally strengthening cracks in its inland markets.
Refining Operations
Refining should benefit from stronger cracks and higher throughput.
Negative Factors
Lubricants Segment
Within the Lubricants & Specialties segment, planned maintenance at Mississauga and tariff uncertainty weigh on product sales.
Market Valuation
Strong performance has moved the shares above fair value.
Renewables Segment
Renewables segment throughput margins are approaching break-even due to continued policy uncertainty.

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, it supplies fuels to approximately 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 300 additional locations, as well as engages in the growing renewables business. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum industry. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHF Sinclair Corporation generates revenue primarily through its refining operations, which involves the conversion of crude oil into various refined products that are sold to wholesale and retail customers. Key revenue streams include the sale of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as other petrochemical products. Additionally, the company earns income from its transportation and logistics services, which facilitate the movement of crude oil and finished products. Strategic partnerships with crude oil suppliers and distribution networks play a vital role in optimizing operational efficiency and enhancing profitability. Market dynamics, including crude oil prices and refining margins, significantly influence the company's overall earnings.

HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong financial growth and improvements across several segments, particularly in Refining and Midstream. However, challenges persist in the Renewables and Lubricants & Specialties segments, with declines in EBITDA and sales volumes. Despite these challenges, the company remains focused on strategic priorities and shareholder returns.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Shareholder Returns
Returned $145 million to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. Since the Sinclair acquisition in March 2022, over $4.2 billion has been returned to shareholders, reducing share count by over 58 million shares.
Refining Segment Performance
Refining segment reported a second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $476 million, a significant increase from $187 million in the second quarter of 2024, driven by higher adjusted refinery gross margins.
Marketing Segment Growth
The Marketing segment delivered $25 million in EBITDA and achieved a gross margin of $0.10 per gallon. The segment grew its branded supplied stores by a net of 55 sites during the quarter.
Midstream Segment Success
Midstream segment reported $112 million in adjusted EBITDA, benefiting from higher pipeline revenues and lower operating costs.
Financial Growth
Second quarter net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders was $208 million, or $1.10 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $322 million, or $1.70 per diluted share, compared to $150 million, or $0.78 per diluted share for the same period in 2024.
Negative Updates
Renewables Segment Challenges
Renewables segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of negative $2 million, impacted by lower sales volumes and margins.
Lubricants & Specialties Segment Decline
Lubricants & Specialties segment reported $55 million in EBITDA, down from $97 million in the second quarter of 2024, due to lower base oil margins and lower sales volumes.
Turnaround Challenges
Decreased crude oil charge due to turnaround activities at Tulsa and Parco refineries, averaging 616,000 barrels per day compared to 635,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, HF Sinclair Corporation made substantial progress towards its strategic priorities, demonstrating improvements in key metrics such as refining throughput, capture rate, and operating costs. The company returned $145 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. In Refining, they completed scheduled turnarounds at the Tulsa and Parco refineries, achieving a crude throughput of 616,000 barrels per day and an operating expense of $7.32 per throughput barrel. The Marketing segment delivered $25 million in EBITDA, with a gross margin of $0.10 per gallon, and expanded by a net of 55 branded stores during the quarter. The Lubricants & Specialties segment faced challenges with $55 million in EBITDA due to $20 million FIFO headwinds. In the Midstream sector, adjusted EBITDA was $112 million, benefiting from higher pipeline revenues. Overall, the company reported a second quarter net income of $208 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, with adjusted net income at $322 million, or $1.70 per diluted share, reflecting strong operational performance and successful execution of their strategic initiatives.

HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
HF Sinclair Corporation's financial statements show mixed results. A healthy gross margin and strong cash management contrast with recent declines in net income and cash reserves, indicating operational challenges. The balance sheet remains stable, providing a buffer against market volatility.
Income Statement
68
Positive
HF Sinclair Corporation has shown a volatile revenue trend with recent declines. The TTM data indicates a negative EBIT and net income, suggesting operational challenges. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 28.2% TTM but is offset by negative net profit margins. Previous years showed stronger performance, indicating potential for recovery if operational issues are addressed.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio stands at a solid 55.9% TTM, suggesting financial stability. However, a decrease in cash reserves could pose liquidity risks. Stockholders' equity has remained relatively stable over the years, reflecting consistent shareholder value.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow remains positive, showing capability to cover operational expenses despite negative net income. The free cash flow has decreased recently, which may affect future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates strong cash generation relative to net income, suggesting good cash management practices.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue27.92B28.58B31.96B38.20B18.39B11.18B
Gross Profit2.28B3.21B5.14B6.82B2.63B649.86M
EBITDA846.48M1.22B3.12B4.77B1.42B-99.61M
Net Income-141.66M177.00M1.59B2.92B558.32M-601.45M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.54B16.64B17.72B18.13B12.92B11.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments547.00M800.00M1.35B1.67B234.44M1.37B
Total Debt3.13B3.10B3.10B3.56B3.44B3.43B
Total Liabilities7.29B7.30B7.48B8.11B6.62B5.78B
Stockholders Equity9.19B9.28B10.17B9.24B5.69B5.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow485.42M640.00M1.91B3.25B-406.73M127.77M
Operating Cash Flow705.06M1.11B2.30B3.78B406.68M457.93M
Investing Cash Flow-463.30M-468.00M-371.32M-774.49M-1.33B-330.16M
Financing Cash Flow-926.54M-1.18B-2.24B-1.56B-211.80M353.23M

HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price51.56
Price Trends
50DMA
44.76
Positive
100DMA
39.47
Positive
200DMA
36.93
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.25
Negative
RSI
76.35
Negative
STOCH
87.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.03, above the 50-day MA of 44.76, and above the 200-day MA of 36.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.35 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DINO.

HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$9.65B35.13-0.93%3.88%-14.58%-107.50%
73
Outperform
$48.27B64.433.07%2.87%-11.72%-86.21%
70
Outperform
$53.17B31.416.00%3.57%-12.80%-64.40%
66
Neutral
$15.26B7.303.22%5.27%4.16%-60.82%
65
Neutral
$54.77B26.6911.24%2.03%-10.03%-64.63%
55
Neutral
$3.11B268.82-50.65%8.91%-15.98%-160.88%
51
Neutral
$3.30B-17.30%3.89%-18.73%-236.79%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
51.10
7.74
17.85%
CVI
CVR Energy
31.43
8.33
36.06%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
178.98
16.70
10.29%
PSX
Phillips 66
131.55
8.09
6.55%
VLO
Valero Energy
156.77
26.84
20.66%
PBF
PBF Energy
28.51
-2.37
-7.67%

HF Sinclair Corporation Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
HF Sinclair Highlights Strategic Initiatives in Energy Transition
Positive
Mar 21, 2025

In March 2025, HF Sinclair Corporation presented to investors, highlighting its strategic initiatives and operational capabilities across various segments. The company has made significant investments in renewable diesel projects, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting alternative energy systems. HF Sinclair’s focus on sustainability and innovation positions it as a key player in the energy transition, with implications for its market positioning and stakeholder engagement.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 23, 2025