HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)
NYSE:DINO
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HF Sinclair Corporation
(NYSE:DINO)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$77.00
▲(34.73% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/02/26
The score is driven by strong financial resilience (very low leverage and solid cash generation) and highly attractive valuation (low P/E plus dividend). These positives are tempered by cyclical/volatile profitability and earnings-call risks, including one-time benefit impacts, near-term maintenance-related throughput pressure, and leadership uncertainty; technically, the uptrend is constructive but currently overbought.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
HF Sinclair’s extremely low leverage and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. That balance-sheet conservatism supports continued capex funding, opportunistic buybacks/dividends, and resilience through refining cycles, reducing refinancing and solvency risk over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Cyclical refining earnings
Refining remains inherently cyclical; multi-year revenue declines and margin swings show profitability is sensitive to commodity spreads and utilization. This structural volatility can produce lumpy earnings and cash flow, complicating capital allocation and making sustained margin improvement uncertain over the next few quarters.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
HF Sinclair’s extremely low leverage and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. That balance-sheet conservatism supports continued capex funding, opportunistic buybacks/dividends, and resilience through refining cycles, reducing refinancing and solvency risk over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
HF Sinclair Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.62B
Dividend Yield4.26%
Average Volume (3M)2.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.3
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth-1.08%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,297
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.66
Shares Outstanding180,275,440
10 Day Avg. Volume2,163,991
30 Day Avg. Volume2,491,203
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio9.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$70.92Price Target Upside24.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)6.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$31.27B
HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The compan...
How the Company Makes Money
HF Sinclair primarily makes money by buying crude oil and other feedstocks and converting them into higher-value refined products, then selling those products into wholesale and retail channels. A significant portion of earnings is driven by the “...
HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: adjusted EBITDA more than doubled year-over-year, renewables moved from loss to strong profitability with double-digit volume growth, marketing and lubricants showed solid performance, liquidity is robust and shareholder returns remain active. However, notable caveats include substantial one-time inventory and tax benefits that materially boosted reported income, ongoing lubricant feedstock inflation, a recent midstream contamination incident, geopolitical-driven market volatility, and management leadership uncertainty. On balance the company demonstrated strong operating execution, cash generation and strategic progress but with several risks that warrant monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong Reported and Adjusted Earnings
Reported net income attributable to Sinclair shareholders of $648 million ($3.56 per diluted share). Adjusted net income of $127 million ($0.69 per diluted share) vs an adjusted net loss of $50 million (-$0.27) in Q1 2025.
Negative Updates
Earnings Heavily Influenced by One-Time Inventory and Tax Items
Reported results benefited from a $604M lower-of-cost-or-market (LOCM) inventory valuation benefit in refining and a $68M LOCM benefit in renewables; prior-year PTC recognition of $49M also materially supported results. These items meaningfully inflated net income and create some dependence on non-recurring items.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Reported and Adjusted Earnings
Reported net income attributable to Sinclair shareholders of $648 million ($3.56 per diluted share). Adjusted net income of $127 million ($0.69 per diluted share) vs an adjusted net loss of $50 million (-$0.27) in Q1 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
HF Sinclair left full‑year 2026 capital spending unchanged and guided second‑quarter refinery crude runs of 600,000–630,000 barrels per day (reflecting planned maintenance at Parco and Navajo and unplanned work at El Dorado); renewables utilization is expected to be north of 70% net of planned events, Puget Sound can swing ~7,000 bpd between diesel and jet, and the El Dorado vacuum furnace project is expected online with up to +10,000 bpd heavy‑crude capacity as part of the fall turnaround. The Board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share payable June 2 (record May 11) and the company will continue opportunistic repurchases under its 2024 program (Q1 returns to shareholders were $167M: $91M dividends, $76M repurchases). Liquidity at March 31 was ~$3.15B (cash ~$1.15B, undrawn $2.0B), debt outstanding $2.8B with debt‑to‑capital ~22% and net‑debt‑to‑capital ~13%; Q1 CapEx was $102M and net cash from operations was $457M. For context, Q1 reported net income attributable of $648M ($3.56/sh), adjusted net income $127M ($0.69/sh), and adjusted EBITDA $426M.HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.62B | 26.87B | 28.58B | 31.96B | 38.20B | 18.39B |
| Gross Profit | 3.04B | 1.39B | 3.21B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 2.73B | 1.86B | 1.22B | 3.12B | 4.77B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 1.23B | 579.00M | 177.00M | 1.59B | 2.92B | 558.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.17B | 16.73B | 16.64B | 17.72B | 18.35B | 12.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.15B | 978.00M | 800.00M | 1.35B | 1.67B | 234.44M |
| Total Debt | 3.25B | 3.23B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 3.72B | 3.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.44B | 7.48B | 7.30B | 7.48B | 8.33B | 6.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.66B | 9.18B | 9.28B | 10.17B | 9.24B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.17B | 866.00M | 640.00M | 1.91B | 3.25B | -406.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.86B | 1.31B | 1.11B | 2.30B | 3.78B | 406.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -592.00M | -516.00M | -468.00M | -371.32M | -774.49M | -1.33B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -676.00M | -631.00M | -1.18B | -2.24B | -1.56B | -211.80M |
HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis
Neutral
57.15
Price Trends
56.95
Positive
53.10
Positive
50.80
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Positive
46.29
Neutral
42.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 57.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.06, above the 50-day MA of 56.95, and above the 200-day MA of 50.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DINO.
HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.62B | 4.35 | 13.11% | 4.26% | -1.08% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $74.45B | 35.24 | 27.33% | 2.24% | -1.29% | 114.86% | |
63 Neutral | $74.45B | 14.57 | 17.63% | 2.74% | -2.53% | 385.02% | |
57 Neutral | $5.00B | 7.04 | 8.35% | 4.14% | -4.33% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $70.64B | 88.46 | 14.72% | 3.68% | -1.33% | 130.72% | |
52 Neutral | $3.41B | -4.40 | -6.53% | 10.50% | 1.38% | 78.79% |
* Energy Sector Average
DINO
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.