Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $59.99B
• Dividend Yield: 2.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.11M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: -6.37%
• EPS Growth: -25.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 4.07
• Shares Outstanding: 300,602,480
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,695,946
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,112,724
• PEG Ratio: 0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.09
• 1Y Price Target: $202.79
• Price Target Upside: 3.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 13.13
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $131.65B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $194.00 ▼(-1.40% Downside)

The score is led by solid financial fundamentals (strong revenue growth and ROE, improving free cash flow) and a positive, disciplined earnings outlook centered on lower 2026 CapEx, high-return projects, and continued shareholder returns. Offsetting factors are higher leverage and only moderate margins/cash conversion, while technical signals are mixed with slightly negative MACD and price below key mid-term moving averages.

Positive Factors

Operational reliability & margin capture

Sustained high utilization and above-100% margin capture indicate durable operational execution and commercial optimization. High reliability reduces downtime and supports steady throughput, which underpins consistent cash flow and competitive refining economics across market cycles.

Midstream cash generation (MPLX)

A strong, growing midstream platform provides predictable, fee‑like cash flows and sizeable distributions to MPC. MPLX's growth in gas/NGL services diversifies revenues, funds MPC dividends and capex, and materially strengthens long‑term cash generation and financial flexibility versus refining-only peers.

Disciplined capital allocation & high-return projects

Management's shift to lower, value‑enhancing CapEx and a pipeline of projects targeting 25%+ returns improves capital efficiency and ROIC. Clear net debt targets plus a policy to return excess FCF support disciplined liquidity management and sustainable shareholder returns over the medium term.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Elevated leverage limits balance sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to interest rates and margin compression. In a cyclical refining business, high debt amplifies downside risk to cash flow and could constrain the ability to fund opportunistic investments or maintain distribution targets if refining spreads weaken.

Moderate margins and cash conversion

Low net margins and a weak operating‑cash‑to‑earnings ratio mean reported profits aren't fully translating into stable free cash flow. That elevates reliance on favorable crude/product differentials and midstream cash support to fund capex and distributions, increasing earnings volatility risk over time.

Labor negotiation risk

Protracted bargaining with the USW creates a structural operational risk for a labor‑intensive refining footprint. A difficult settlement or work disruptions could raise long‑term operating costs, impair throughput and delay projects, materially affecting cash flow trajectories and project timelines.

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Marathon Petroleum generates revenue primarily through its refining and marketing operations. The company earns money by processing crude oil into various refined products at its refineries, which are then sold to wholesale and retail customers. Key revenue streams include the sale of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products, as well as transportation and storage services through its extensive pipeline network. Additionally, MPC benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. The company's ability to optimize refining margins and manage costs effectively also plays a significant role in its overall profitability.

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (TTM revenue growth of 55.6%) and solid ROE (16.54%) are tempered by moderate profitability (net margin 2.14%) and higher leverage (debt-to-equity 1.81). Cash generation is improving (TTM free cash flow growth 17.25%) but remains only moderate versus earnings (OCF/NI 0.34).

Income Statement

Marathon Petroleum shows a strong revenue growth rate of 55.6% in the TTM, indicating a robust recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin of 9.57% and net profit margin of 2.14% suggest moderate profitability, with room for improvement. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, reflecting efficient operations despite industry volatility.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.81 indicates a high level of leverage, which could pose risks if market conditions worsen. However, the return on equity of 16.54% demonstrates effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 20.53% suggests a balanced asset structure, though there is potential for strengthening equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.34 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.56 indicate moderate cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow growth rate of 17.25% in the TTM is a positive sign, although historical fluctuations highlight potential volatility in cash flow management.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	132.54B	138.86B	148.38B	177.45B	119.98B
Gross Profit	9.85B	9.29B	16.51B	22.57B	6.61B
EBITDA	11.54B	10.60B	18.56B	24.88B	7.45B
Net Income	4.05B	3.44B	9.68B	14.52B	9.74B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	0.00	78.86B	85.99B	89.90B	85.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.65B	3.21B	10.22B	11.77B	10.84B
Total Debt	0.00	28.76B	28.50B	27.91B	26.90B
Total Liabilities	-23.89B	54.35B	54.59B	54.82B	51.79B
Stockholders Equity	23.89B	17.75B	24.40B	27.71B	26.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	6.13B	12.23B	13.94B	2.90B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	8.66B	14.12B	16.36B	4.36B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	1.53B	-3.10B	623.00M	14.80B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-12.43B	-14.21B	-13.65B	-14.42B

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 196.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 196.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 189.92, above the 50-day MA of 180.02, and above the 200-day MA of 176.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	72 Outperform	$63.42B	14.59	15.25%	3.68%	-10.56%	-53.06%
VLO	70 Outperform	$60.84B	26.35	9.71%	2.74%	-8.48%	-56.92%
MPC	69 Neutral	$59.99B	15.10	19.33%	2.24%	-6.37%	-25.83%
DINO	68 Neutral	$9.49B	16.61	6.19%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
SUN	67 Neutral	$9.40B	26.93	6.21%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
PBF	54 Neutral	$3.88B	-23.14	-2.92%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Marathon Petroleum Appoints New Executive Vice President CFO

On December 18, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced that Maria A. Khoury will join the company as executive vice president and chief financial officer, effective January 19, 2026, succeeding John J. Quaid, who will remain in a non-executive role during a transition period. Khoury, a seasoned global finance executive with 25 years of experience at Danaher, GE Healthcare, GE Oil & Gas, GE Corporate, GE Capital Treasury and Cargill, will become Marathon’s principal financial officer, with an $800,000 base salary, a target annual cash bonus equal to her base pay, a $2.4 million 2026 long-term incentive target, standard company benefits, and a one-time $275,000 restricted stock unit grant to replace forfeited equity from her current employer, signaling a deliberate effort by Marathon to bolster its executive bench and financial leadership as it pursues its strategic and capital allocation objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPC) stock is a Hold with a $196.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marathon Petroleum stock, see the MPC Stock Forecast page.

Marathon Petroleum Announces New Chairman Appointment

On November 4, 2025, Marathon Petroleum Corp. announced that Maryann T. Mannen, the current President and CEO, has been elected as Chairman of the Board, effective January 1, 2026. This change follows the retirement of Michael J. Hennigan, who will step down from his role as Executive Chairman and board member on the same date. The transition marks a continuation of leadership under Mannen, who has been with the company in various executive roles since 2021, and is expected to guide MPC’s future growth and direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPC) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marathon Petroleum stock, see the MPC Stock Forecast page.