Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $56.15B
• Dividend Yield: 1.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.84M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -10.03%
• EPS Growth: -64.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 3.96
• Shares Outstanding: 304,020,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,783,804
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,841,598
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.66
• 1Y Price Target: $189.77
• Price Target Upside: 2.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $193.00 ▲(4.51% Upside)

Marathon Petroleum's overall stock score reflects a balance of operational efficiency and market challenges. The company's financial performance shows stability in operational margins but faces revenue and cash flow pressures. Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend, though caution is warranted due to potential overbought conditions. Valuation metrics suggest the stock may be overvalued, limiting upside potential. The earnings call highlights strong operational performance and strategic growth initiatives, but high expenses and renewable diesel challenges remain concerns.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

High utilization and margin capture demonstrate strong operational efficiency, enhancing profitability and competitive positioning in the refining sector.

Midstream Business Growth

Growth in the midstream segment indicates robust demand and strategic positioning, contributing to stable revenue streams and long-term business resilience.

Strategic Acquisitions

Strategic acquisitions expand operational capabilities and market reach, supporting long-term growth and diversification of revenue sources.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Declining revenue growth poses a risk to financial stability and market competitiveness, potentially impacting long-term profitability and strategic initiatives.

High Turnaround Expenses

Significant turnaround expenses can strain financial resources, limiting investment capacity and affecting operational efficiency over the long term.

Renewable Diesel Segment Challenges

Underperformance in renewable diesel operations highlights challenges in achieving regulatory and market viability, impacting future growth and diversification efforts.

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Marathon Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the refining and marketing of petroleum products. The Refining & Marketing segment is the largest contributor to its earnings, where the company refines crude oil into various products and sells them both at wholesale and retail prices. Revenue is heavily influenced by the prices of crude oil and refined products. The company also earns income from its logistics segment, which includes transporting crude oil and refined products via pipelines and terminals, providing a steady revenue stream. Furthermore, MPC benefits from its extensive retail network, including branded retail gas stations, which enhances its market presence and sales. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and distributors also bolster its operations and profitability, while investments in renewable energy initiatives may provide future income diversification.

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Marathon Petroleum's financial statements reflect a company navigating through a challenging market environment. The income statement shows pressure on revenue and profit margins, while the balance sheet indicates high leverage but reasonable returns on equity. Cash flow metrics highlight potential liquidity concerns with declining free cash flow growth. Overall, the company demonstrates operational efficiency but faces challenges in revenue growth and cash generation.

Income Statement

Marathon Petroleum's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decrease in revenue growth rate by -2.99%, reflecting a challenging market environment. Gross profit margin stands at 5.80%, and net profit margin is 1.60%, both lower than previous years, indicating pressure on profitability. However, the company maintains a reasonable EBIT margin of 4.24% and EBITDA margin of 6.69%, suggesting operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability has been impacted, operational margins remain stable.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.96, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk if market conditions worsen. However, the company has managed to maintain a return on equity of 11.47%, showcasing its ability to generate returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is 21.18%, reflecting a moderate level of equity financing. Overall, while leverage is high, the company demonstrates an ability to generate shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -18.19% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.31, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.63, suggesting that cash flows are not as robust as net income figures might suggest. While the company generates positive cash flow, the decline in growth and lower ratios highlight potential liquidity concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	133.05B	138.52B	148.46B	177.41B	119.78B	69.16B
Gross Profit	7.72B	9.03B	16.60B	22.55B	6.84B	15.00M
EBITDA	8.90B	10.72B	18.65B	24.90B	7.42B	-8.87B
Net Income	2.13B	3.44B	9.67B	14.51B	1.72B	-9.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	78.48B	78.86B	85.99B	89.90B	85.37B	85.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.67B	3.21B	10.22B	11.77B	10.84B	415.00M
Total Debt	30.04B	28.76B	28.50B	27.91B	26.90B	33.09B
Total Liabilities	55.22B	54.35B	54.59B	54.82B	51.79B	54.94B
Stockholders Equity	16.62B	17.75B	24.40B	27.71B	26.21B	22.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.65B	6.13B	12.23B	13.94B	2.90B	-368.00M
Operating Cash Flow	6.47B	8.66B	14.12B	16.36B	4.36B	2.42B
Investing Cash Flow	444.00M	1.53B	-3.10B	623.00M	14.80B	-3.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-9.68B	-12.43B	-14.21B	-13.65B	-14.42B	-135.00M

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 184.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 184.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 177.94, above the 50-day MA of 172.48, and above the 200-day MA of 153.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLO	73 Outperform	50.84B	67.44	3.17%	2.72%	-11.72%	-86.21%
PSX	69 Neutral	53.81B	32.02	6.25%	3.53%	-12.80%	-64.40%
SUN	66 Neutral	7.64B	24.59	6.81%	7.15%	-8.65%	-73.25%
MPC	65 Neutral	$56.15B	27.11	11.24%	1.97%	-10.03%	-64.63%
DINO	65 Neutral	9.85B	-112.15	-0.91%	3.80%	-14.58%	-107.50%
PBF	51 Neutral	3.53B	-3.55	-9.63%	3.61%	-18.73%	-236.79%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Marathon Petroleum Announces Executive Vice President Retirement

On April 28, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced the retirement of Timothy J. Aydt, Executive Vice President of Refining, effective September 2, 2025, after over 40 years of service. Mike Henschen will succeed him on June 1, 2025, with Aydt remaining in a non-executive role to aid in the transition until his retirement.