Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $50.60B
• Dividend Yield: 2.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: -6.37%
• EPS Growth: -25.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 3.01
• Shares Outstanding: 300,602,480
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,454,557
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,086,742
• PEG Ratio: -0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.68
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.86
• 1Y Price Target: $205.87
• Price Target Upside: 22.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.46
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $133.63B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $182.00 ▲(8.13% Upside)

Marathon Petroleum's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic initiatives, despite technical weaknesses and high leverage. The positive earnings call and new CFO appointment further support a stable outlook, though market conditions and technical indicators suggest caution.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Generation

Strong cash generation enhances financial stability and supports strategic investments, improving long-term growth prospects.

Strategic Leadership Change

The appointment of an experienced CFO can strengthen financial leadership and support strategic objectives, fostering sustainable growth.

Operational Efficiency

High utilization rates indicate efficient operations, which can lead to improved margins and competitive advantage in the long term.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, especially if market conditions deteriorate, impacting long-term stability.

Moderate Profitability Margins

Moderate profitability margins suggest limited pricing power and efficiency, potentially affecting long-term competitiveness and profitability.

Challenging Renewable Diesel Market

Challenges in the renewable diesel market could hinder growth and profitability in this segment, affecting overall business diversification efforts.

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading American integrated downstream energy company primarily engaged in refining, marketing, and transportation of petroleum products. The company operates a network of refineries, retail fuel outlets, and pipelines, focusing on delivering a wide range of products including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals. With a strong presence in the United States, MPC is committed to providing reliable energy solutions while implementing sustainable practices across its operations.

How the Company Makes Money

Marathon Petroleum generates revenue primarily through its refining and marketing operations. The company earns money by processing crude oil into various refined products at its refineries, which are then sold to wholesale and retail customers. Key revenue streams include the sale of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products, as well as transportation and storage services through its extensive pipeline network. Additionally, MPC benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. The company's ability to optimize refining margins and manage costs effectively also plays a significant role in its overall profitability.

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Marathon Petroleum demonstrates strong revenue growth and effective equity utilization, but faces challenges with high leverage and moderate profitability margins. Cash flow generation is improving, yet historical volatility suggests the need for cautious financial management.

Income Statement

Marathon Petroleum shows a strong revenue growth rate of 55.6% in the TTM, indicating a robust recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin of 9.57% and net profit margin of 2.14% suggest moderate profitability, with room for improvement. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, reflecting efficient operations despite industry volatility.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.81 indicates a high level of leverage, which could pose risks if market conditions worsen. However, the return on equity of 16.54% demonstrates effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 20.53% suggests a balanced asset structure, though there is potential for strengthening equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.34 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.56 indicate moderate cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow growth rate of 17.25% in the TTM is a positive sign, although historical fluctuations highlight potential volatility in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	133.26B	138.86B	148.38B	177.45B	119.98B	69.78B
Gross Profit	8.87B	9.29B	16.51B	22.57B	6.61B	671.00M
EBITDA	10.17B	10.60B	18.56B	24.88B	7.45B	-8.90B
Net Income	2.88B	3.44B	9.68B	14.52B	9.74B	-9.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	83.24B	78.86B	85.99B	89.90B	85.37B	85.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.65B	3.21B	10.22B	11.77B	10.84B	415.00M
Total Debt	34.20B	28.76B	28.50B	27.91B	26.90B	33.09B
Total Liabilities	59.35B	54.35B	54.59B	54.82B	51.79B	54.94B
Stockholders Equity	17.10B	17.75B	24.40B	27.71B	26.21B	22.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.28B	6.13B	12.23B	13.94B	2.90B	-368.00M
Operating Cash Flow	7.39B	8.66B	14.12B	16.36B	4.36B	2.42B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.35B	1.53B	-3.10B	623.00M	14.80B	-3.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.40B	-12.43B	-14.21B	-13.65B	-14.42B	-135.00M

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 168.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 168.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 186.65, below the 50-day MA of 188.94, and above the 200-day MA of 167.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.18 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	73 Outperform	$51.93B	35.22	5.38%	3.68%	-10.56%	-53.06%
SUN	72 Outperform	$7.98B	17.77	8.27%	6.91%	-5.18%	-33.14%
VLO	69 Neutral	$49.63B	33.87	6.07%	2.78%	-8.48%	-56.92%
DINO	68 Neutral	$8.68B	22.72	4.07%	4.27%	-9.55%	27.65%
MPC	66 Neutral	$50.60B	17.95	15.98%	2.22%	-6.37%	-25.83%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
PBF	55 Neutral	$3.05B	-5.65	-9.47%	4.23%	-15.35%	-81.94%

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Marathon Petroleum Appoints New Executive Vice President CFO

On December 18, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced that Maria A. Khoury will join the company as executive vice president and chief financial officer, effective January 19, 2026, succeeding John J. Quaid, who will remain in a non-executive role during a transition period. Khoury, a seasoned global finance executive with 25 years of experience at Danaher, GE Healthcare, GE Oil & Gas, GE Corporate, GE Capital Treasury and Cargill, will become Marathon’s principal financial officer, with an $800,000 base salary, a target annual cash bonus equal to her base pay, a $2.4 million 2026 long-term incentive target, standard company benefits, and a one-time $275,000 restricted stock unit grant to replace forfeited equity from her current employer, signaling a deliberate effort by Marathon to bolster its executive bench and financial leadership as it pursues its strategic and capital allocation objectives.

Marathon Petroleum Announces New Chairman Appointment

On November 4, 2025, Marathon Petroleum Corp. announced that Maryann T. Mannen, the current President and CEO, has been elected as Chairman of the Board, effective January 1, 2026. This change follows the retirement of Michael J. Hennigan, who will step down from his role as Executive Chairman and board member on the same date. The transition marks a continuation of leadership under Mannen, who has been with the company in various executive roles since 2021, and is expected to guide MPC’s future growth and direction.