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Marathon Petroleum
(NYSE:MPC)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$349.00
▲(12.86% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/05/26
MPC scores well primarily on improving TTM profitability and very strong free-cash-flow generation, supported by a bullish technical trend (price above key moving averages with positive MACD) and a positive earnings-call outlook (higher planned utilization and significant buybacks). The score is held back by elevated leverage for a cyclical business and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~20.6, ~1.24% dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Very strong and growing free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: supports debt paydown, high shareholder returns, and value‑enhancing reinvestments. This reduces cyclical vulnerability and underpins capacity to fund capex and buybacks across 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
High debt relative to equity constrains financial flexibility in a cyclical industry, increasing interest and refinancing risk if margins compress. Elevated leverage limits the company's ability to absorb prolonged downturns and may constrain strategic optionality over the next several quarters.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Very strong and growing free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: supports debt paydown, high shareholder returns, and value‑enhancing reinvestments. This reduces cyclical vulnerability and underpins capacity to fund capex and buybacks across 2–6 months and beyond.
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Marathon Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business areas, indicating which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Highlights profitability across different business areas, indicating which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMarathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$83.74B
Dividend Yield1.22%
Average Volume (3M)2.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth15.19%
EPS Growth331.26%
CountryUS
Employees18,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)29.05
Shares Outstanding280,824,770
10 Day Avg. Volume2,132,673
30 Day Avg. Volume2,265,330
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.39
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio10.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$324.73Price Target Upside5.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)45.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)$167.57B
Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and M...
How the Company Makes Money
MPC primarily makes money by converting crude oil and other feedstocks into higher-value refined products and selling those products through multiple channels. A major driver of profitability is the refining margin (often described as the “crack s...
Marathon Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial outlook driven by strong refining execution, margin capture, sizable capital projects coming online (Garyville, Robinson), and substantial MPLX-driven midstream growth. Management emphasized robust cash generation and an aggressive capital-return posture (over $1B returned in Q1 and a new $5B buyback authorization). Key near-term negatives included significant derivative-related unrealized losses (~$500M), working capital usage (~$573M), midstream EBITDA decline (~$122M), and elevated turnaround costs ($530M). Management highlighted commercial and operational flexibility, strong liquidity (~$2.2B cash), and confidence in sustaining performance, but also acknowledged material market volatility and inventory risks. Overall, positives (execution, higher EBITDA, strategic investments, and shareholder returns) materially outweigh the headwinds (derivative losses, WC impact, and regional maintenance-related softness).Positive Updates
Strong operational performance and safety
Refineries ran at 89% utilization in Q1 2026 with first-quarter capture of 99%; the company recorded its strongest first-quarter process safety performance and the lowest level of unplanned downtime this decade while completing ~40% of full-year planned maintenance activity.
Negative Updates
Derivative losses and working capital strain
Q1 derivative-related unrealized losses of approximately $500 million (with midstream representing ~$63 million of that); margin calls and derivatives contributed to a working capital use of ~ $340 million and overall working capital use of ~$573 million for the quarter.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong operational performance and safety
Refineries ran at 89% utilization in Q1 2026 with first-quarter capture of 99%; the company recorded its strongest first-quarter process safety performance and the lowest level of unplanned downtime this decade while completing ~40% of full-year planned maintenance activity.
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Company Guidance
The company guided to a strong second quarter for Refining & Marketing, planning refinery utilization of about 94% (up from 89% in Q1 when system throughput was nearly 3.0 million bpd and regional utilization was 89% Gulf Coast / 88% Mid‑Con / 92% West Coast), and said Q1 capture was 99% (and would have exceeded 100% absent derivative timing and secondary-product headwinds) with those derivative effects expected to unwind into Q2; Q1 financials included adjusted EPS $1.65, consolidated adjusted EBITDA $2.8 billion, R&M adjusted EBITDA ≈$1.4 billion and $5.37/boe, operating cash flow excluding working capital $1.7 billion, Q1 R&M capital invested ≈$330 million (≈25% of 2026 R&M value‑enhancing capital to Garyville), Q1 turnaround costs $530 million (≈40% of full‑year activity; full‑year turnarounds unchanged at $1.35 billion), more than $1 billion returned to shareholders in Q1 (including $750 million repurchases) plus a new $5 billion repurchase authorization (payout ratio 62%), and programmatic operational and commercial actions — including running ~10 million barrels of SPR purchases in Q2, Garyville’s +30,000 bpd incremental jet capacity online in March, El Paso yield work coming in Q2, Robinson jet flexibility enabling ~10,000 bpd in Q3 — all while MPLX invests >$2.4 billion in 2026 (≈90% to natural gas/NGL) and targets 12.5% distribution growth over two years with mid‑single‑digit adjusted EBITDA growth.Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 153.94B | 132.70B | 138.86B | 148.38B | 177.45B | 119.98B |
| Gross Profit | 17.89B | 10.00B | 9.29B | 16.51B | 22.57B | 6.61B |
| EBITDA | 17.45B | 11.68B | 10.60B | 18.56B | 24.88B | 7.45B |
| Net Income | 8.55B | 4.05B | 3.44B | 9.68B | 14.52B | 9.74B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 94.31B | 85.56B | 78.86B | 85.99B | 89.90B | 85.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.77B | 3.67B | 3.21B | 10.22B | 11.77B | 10.84B |
| Total Debt | 34.29B | 34.36B | 28.76B | 28.50B | 27.91B | 26.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 68.59B | 61.47B | 54.35B | 54.59B | 54.82B | 51.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.08B | 17.31B | 17.75B | 24.40B | 27.71B | 26.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.90B | 4.77B | 6.13B | 12.23B | 13.94B | 2.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.13B | 8.25B | 8.66B | 14.12B | 16.36B | 4.36B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.51B | -6.27B | 1.53B | -3.10B | 623.00M | 14.80B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.52B | -1.52B | -12.43B | -14.21B | -13.65B | -14.42B |
Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis
Positive
309.24
Price Trends
279.22
Positive
259.02
Positive
223.74
Positive
Market Momentum
6.97
Positive
50.87
Neutral
17.86
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 309.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 308.14, above the 50-day MA of 279.22, and above the 200-day MA of 223.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 6.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.
Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $14.47B | 8.09 | 19.86% | 2.27% | 16.26% | ― | |
77 Outperform | $85.89B | 13.06 | 29.94% | 1.54% | 12.92% | 898.48% | |
74 Outperform | $81.36B | 12.22 | 24.45% | 2.39% | 15.60% | 322.30% | |
74 Outperform | $7.31B | 5.77 | 24.08% | 1.78% | 13.54% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $83.74B | 11.03 | 48.71% | 1.26% | 15.19% | 331.26% | |
69 Neutral | $14.45B | 14.01 | 23.59% | 4.99% | ― | 123.75% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
320.32
164.78
105.93%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
85.22
43.54
104.46%
PSX
Phillips 66
215.52
101.07
88.32%
VLO
Valero Energy
314.95
185.92
144.08%
PBF
PBF Energy
66.29
45.12
213.16%
SUN
Sunoco
71.86
24.30
51.08%
Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Marathon Petroleum Announces Passing of Longtime Board Member
Negative
Jun 29, 2026
On June 26, 2026, Marathon Petroleum reported the death of board member Abdulaziz F. Alkhayyal, who had served on the company’s board of directors since 2016. He was a member of the Compensation and Organization Development Committee and the...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.