Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $50.90B
• Dividend Yield: 2.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: -6.39%
• EPS Growth: -64.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 307,213,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,056,154
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,430,608
• PEG Ratio: -0.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.76
• 1Y Price Target: $166.54
• Price Target Upside: -0.59% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $174.00 ▲(3.87%Upside)

Marathon Petroleum's overall score reflects a solid financial foundation and positive technical indicators, with the stock showing potential for upward movement. Despite a high valuation and mixed earnings results, the company's strategic investments and midstream growth position it well for future competitiveness. Challenges in revenue growth and the renewable diesel segment, along with a recent net loss, underscore the importance of sustaining operational efficiency and cash generation.

Positive Factors

Capital Returns

Management remains committed to returning all excess capital through buybacks.

Earnings

1Q25 results were stronger than expected in all segments.

Strategic Investments

MPC's investment in modernizing the LA refinery's utility system is aimed at improving reliability and energy efficiency, which is seen as a strategic move while competitors shut down refineries.

Negative Factors

Refining Segment Challenges

Elevated turnaround activity is impacting utilization and weighing on capture rates in the refining segment.

Renewable Diesel

The switch from BTC to PTC is expected to weigh on renewable diesel segment results.

Tariff Risk

There is a risk related to tariffs affecting refined product demand, which is considered an overhang on the stock's potential.

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading integrated downstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. It operates one of the largest refining systems in the United States, providing petroleum products and services through its extensive network of refineries, pipelines, and retail locations. MPC's core business segments include refining and marketing, retail, and midstream, offering a comprehensive range of fuel products, petrochemicals, and transportation services.

How the Company Makes Money

Marathon Petroleum primarily generates revenue through its refining and marketing operations, where it processes crude oil into various refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The company also operates a vast network of retail outlets under the Speedway brand, contributing to its earnings by selling fuel and convenience store merchandise directly to consumers. Additionally, MPC's midstream segment, mainly through its subsidiary MPLX LP, provides transportation and logistics services, including the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas and crude oil. Significant partnerships with suppliers and distributors, alongside its strategic infrastructure investments, bolster its capacity to efficiently deliver energy products, thus enhancing profitability.

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Marathon Petroleum exhibits solid financial metrics with strong cash generation and operational efficiency. However, the company faces challenges in revenue growth and profit margin maintenance amidst market volatility. While leverage is manageable, the decline in equity and free cash flow growth presents potential risks.

Income Statement

Marathon Petroleum has shown strong resilience in its income statement metrics. The gross profit margin for the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 6.06%. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 1.76% compared to previous periods. Revenue growth has been negative due to the recent downturn in revenues, dropping from $149 billion to $138 billion. The EBIT margin stands at 3.89%, showcasing operational efficiency but a decline from prior periods. Overall, the company has maintained profitability amidst industry challenges, although revenue contraction poses a risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.96 as of the latest data, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 14.85%, showing a reduction in shareholder returns. The equity ratio is 20.08%, reflecting a stable capital structure. While the company manages its liabilities well, the recent decline in equity highlights potential risks if leverage increases.

Cash Flow

Marathon Petroleum's cash flow metrics demonstrate robust cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow for the TTM is $4.46 billion, although it shows a decrease from $6.13 billion in the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.90 indicates strong cash conversion efficiency. However, the decline in free cash flow growth rate suggests potential constraints in reinvestment capacity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	138.01B	138.86B	149.35B	178.24B	120.45B	69.90B
Gross Profit	8.37B	9.29B	20.78B	26.57B	10.44B	4.16B
EBITDA	9.04B	10.60B	18.65B	22.96B	7.42B	-8.90B
Net Income	2.43B	3.44B	9.68B	14.52B	1.29B	-11.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	81.63B	78.86B	85.99B	89.90B	85.37B	85.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.81B	3.21B	10.22B	11.77B	10.84B	415.00M
Total Debt	32.14B	28.76B	28.50B	27.91B	26.90B	33.09B
Total Liabilities	58.57B	54.35B	54.59B	54.82B	51.79B	54.94B
Stockholders Equity	16.40B	17.75B	24.40B	27.71B	26.21B	22.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.46B	6.13B	12.23B	13.94B	2.90B	-368.00M
Operating Cash Flow	7.07B	8.66B	14.12B	16.36B	4.36B	2.42B
Investing Cash Flow	1.44B	1.53B	-3.10B	623.00M	14.80B	-3.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-7.87B	-12.43B	-14.21B	-13.65B	-14.42B	-135.00M

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 167.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 167.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 163.70, above the 50-day MA of 153.09, and above the 200-day MA of 149.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRGP	78 Outperform	$36.98B	31.33	46.37%	2.35%	6.05%	11.64%
FANG	77 Outperform	$40.33B	8.45	14.26%	2.90%	47.89%	-7.87%
OXY	74 Outperform	$41.75B	17.19	9.43%	2.26%	1.35%	-33.30%
PSX	72 Outperform	$48.74B	27.28	6.48%	4.01%	-7.61%	-66.18%
MPC	72 Outperform	$50.90B	23.28	12.37%	2.20%	-6.39%	-64.50%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$14.70B	9.57	6.41%	5.37%	4.12%	-71.24%
VLO	66 Neutral	$42.51B	47.90	3.73%	3.33%	-8.44%	-85.95%

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Marathon Petroleum Announces Executive Vice President Retirement

On April 28, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced the retirement of Timothy J. Aydt, Executive Vice President of Refining, effective September 2, 2025, after over 40 years of service. Mike Henschen will succeed him on June 1, 2025, with Aydt remaining in a non-executive role to aid in the transition until his retirement.