Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $52.75B
• Dividend Yield: 2.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: -10.03%
• EPS Growth: -64.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 3.96
• Shares Outstanding: 304,020,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,812,482
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,794,767
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.66
• 1Y Price Target: $186.00
• Price Target Upside: 3.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $176.00 ▼(-1.84% Downside)

Marathon Petroleum's overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation and strong earnings call performance. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics indicate moderate pricing. The company's strategic initiatives and operational efficiency provide resilience, but challenges in revenue growth and high expenses pose risks.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow

MPC has the cheapest 2026 FCF yield among large cap refiners and differentiated growth from Midstream supporting future growth.

Operational Performance

The company is well-positioned as a beneficiary of a more constructive refining outlook, supported by strong operational execution and large Gulf Coast exposure.

Shareholder Returns

MPC has delivered sector-leading total shareholder returns and capital returns post-Speedway divestiture.

Negative Factors

Market Dynamics

There is concern about the tougher renewable diesel backdrop where margins are expected to remain challenged.

Operational Costs

Opex plus turnaround costs were guided $0.2B higher than forecast while net debt levels were worse than target for a second consecutive quarter.

Seasonal Factors

Earnings momentum is stalled by seasonal factors.

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Marathon Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the refining and marketing of petroleum products. The Refining & Marketing segment is the largest contributor to its earnings, where the company refines crude oil into various products and sells them both at wholesale and retail prices. Revenue is heavily influenced by the prices of crude oil and refined products. The company also earns income from its logistics segment, which includes transporting crude oil and refined products via pipelines and terminals, providing a steady revenue stream. Furthermore, MPC benefits from its extensive retail network, including branded retail gas stations, which enhances its market presence and sales. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and distributors also bolster its operations and profitability, while investments in renewable energy initiatives may provide future income diversification.

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Marathon Petroleum demonstrates solid financial performance with strong cash generation and operational efficiency. However, challenges in sustaining revenue growth and maintaining profit margins amidst fluctuating market conditions are evident. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage, and while the company manages its liabilities well, the decline in equity highlights potential risks.

Income Statement

Marathon Petroleum has shown strong resilience in its income statement metrics. The gross profit margin for the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 6.06%. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 1.76% compared to previous periods. Revenue growth has been negative due to the recent downturn in revenues, dropping from $149 billion to $138 billion. The EBIT margin stands at 3.89%, showcasing operational efficiency but a decline from prior periods. Overall, the company has maintained profitability amidst industry challenges, although revenue contraction poses a risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.96 as of the latest data, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 14.85%, showing a reduction in shareholder returns. The equity ratio is 20.08%, reflecting a stable capital structure. While the company manages its liabilities well, the recent decline in equity highlights potential risks if leverage increases.

Cash Flow

Marathon Petroleum's cash flow metrics demonstrate robust cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow for the TTM is $4.46 billion, although it shows a decrease from $6.13 billion in the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.90 indicates strong cash conversion efficiency. However, the decline in free cash flow growth rate suggests potential constraints in reinvestment capacity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	133.05B	138.52B	148.46B	177.41B	119.78B	69.16B
Gross Profit	7.72B	9.03B	16.60B	22.55B	6.84B	15.00M
EBITDA	8.90B	10.72B	18.65B	24.90B	7.42B	-8.87B
Net Income	2.13B	3.44B	9.67B	14.51B	1.72B	-9.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	78.48B	78.86B	85.99B	89.90B	85.37B	85.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.67B	3.21B	10.22B	11.77B	10.84B	415.00M
Total Debt	30.04B	28.76B	28.50B	27.91B	26.90B	33.09B
Total Liabilities	55.22B	54.35B	54.59B	54.82B	51.79B	54.94B
Stockholders Equity	16.62B	17.75B	24.40B	27.71B	26.21B	22.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.65B	6.13B	12.23B	13.94B	2.90B	-368.00M
Operating Cash Flow	6.47B	8.66B	14.12B	16.36B	4.36B	2.42B
Investing Cash Flow	444.00M	1.53B	-3.10B	623.00M	14.80B	-3.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-9.68B	-12.43B	-14.21B	-13.65B	-14.42B	-135.00M

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 179.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 179.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.56, above the 50-day MA of 169.39, and above the 200-day MA of 151.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.38 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DINO	74 Outperform	$9.18B	35.13	-0.93%	3.96%	-14.58%	-107.50%
VLO	73 Outperform	$45.65B	61.00	3.07%	2.95%	-11.72%	-86.21%
PSX	69 Neutral	$52.49B	31.26	6.00%	3.54%	-12.80%	-64.40%
MPC	66 Neutral	$52.75B	25.51	11.24%	2.03%	-10.03%	-64.63%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.47B	7.30	3.02%	5.25%	4.27%	-62.52%
SUN	64 Neutral	$7.93B	25.45	6.62%	6.85%	-8.65%	-73.25%
PBF	51 Neutral	$2.87B	―	-17.30%	4.17%	-18.73%	-236.79%

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Marathon Petroleum Announces Executive Vice President Retirement

On April 28, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced the retirement of Timothy J. Aydt, Executive Vice President of Refining, effective September 2, 2025, after over 40 years of service. Mike Henschen will succeed him on June 1, 2025, with Aydt remaining in a non-executive role to aid in the transition until his retirement.