Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
NYSE:MPC
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Marathon Petroleum
(NYSE:MPC)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$263.00
â–²(8.80% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is anchored by solid but weakening financial fundamentals as the company moves from peak-cycle profitability to a more normalized (and more levered) profile. Offsetting that, technicals are supportive with the stock in an uptrend, and the latest earnings call reinforced disciplined capital allocation, strong execution, and shareholder-return focus. Valuation appears reasonable with a mid-teens P/E and a modest yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & shareholder returns
Sustained operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable funding for dividends, buybacks and high-return projects. This cash generation supports disciplined allocation through cycles, enabling capital returns while still funding maintenance and strategic investments long-term.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage reduces flexibility
Material increase in leverage meaningfully limits balance-sheet flexibility in a cyclical industry. Higher debt amplifies downside risk from margin shocks, raises interest and coverage pressure, and constrains the company’s ability to opportunistically invest or smooth distributions if refining economics deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & shareholder returns
Sustained operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable funding for dividends, buybacks and high-return projects. This cash generation supports disciplined allocation through cycles, enabling capital returns while still funding maintenance and strategic investments long-term.
Read all positive factors
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$71.25B
Dividend Yield2.24%
Average Volume (3M)2.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth-6.37%
EPS Growth-25.83%
CountryUS
Employees18,300
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.07
Shares Outstanding294,740,170
10 Day Avg. Volume3,030,045
30 Day Avg. Volume2,976,275
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.39
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio10.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$223.50Price Target Upside-7.54% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)19.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$135.92B
Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment ...
How the Company Makes Money
MPC primarily makes money through (1) refining and marketing margin generation and (2) midstream and logistics earnings. In refining and marketing, MPC purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, processes them in its refineries into higher-value re...
Marathon Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business areas, indicating which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Highlights profitability across different business areas, indicating which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMarathon Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial outcomes (high capture rates, strong utilization, record midstream EBITDA, robust cash flow, and $4.5B returned to shareholders), a disciplined capital plan with lower 2026 refining spend, and high-return project announcements. Near-term headwinds include Q4 midstream declines from divestitures, renewable margin weakness and a planned turnaround, ongoing labor negotiations, and market-feedstock volatility. Overall, positive fundamentals and clear capital allocation discipline outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Operational Metrics
Full-year margin capture of 105% and refining utilization of 94%, demonstrating high system reliability and competitiveness; company reported its strongest company-wide process safety performance in four years, lowest OSHA recordable injury rate, and fewest designated environmental incidents this decade.
Negative Updates
Q4 Midstream Decline from Divestitures
Midstream Q4 results declined year-over-year primarily due to divestiture of non-core gathering and processing assets, reducing near-term segment EBITDA; however, full-year midstream remains a growth engine with multi-year CAGR of 5%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Operational Metrics
Full-year margin capture of 105% and refining utilization of 94%, demonstrating high system reliability and competitiveness; company reported its strongest company-wide process safety performance in four years, lowest OSHA recordable injury rate, and fewest designated environmental incidents this decade.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights include 2026 standalone capital spending of roughly $700 million in refining value‑enhancing CapEx (a nearly 20% reduction year‑over‑year) plus $250 million in marketing investment, with ~85% of refining spend directed to multiyear projects at Galveston Bay, Garyville, Robinson and El Paso; turnaround expenses are guided to $1.35 billion for the year (down vs. 2025) with further reductions planned in 2027–2028. MPC maintains a net debt‑to‑capital target of 25–30% and an annual cash balance target of $1.0 billion, and expects MPLX distributions to fund MPC’s dividends and standalone CapEx so MPC can return all excess free cash flow to shareholders in 2026. Project‑level 2026 spend includes Garyville feedstock optimization (~$110M in 2026, ~$185M in 2027) to add ~30,000 bpd, a Garyville export‑gasoline flexibility project (~$50M in 2026, ~$100M in 2027) to add ~10,000 bpd, and an El Paso investment of ~$30M in 2026 (targeted online Q2); J.T. Yield is expected online in 2026 and DHT by year‑end 2027, with MPC targeting returns of 25%+ on refining projects. MPLX plans ~$2.4 billion of growth capital (90% to natural gas/NGL services in the Permian and Marcellus) expected to generate mid‑teens returns and is targeting 12.5% distribution growth over two years—implying over $3.5 billion of future annual cash distributions to MPC; note Martinez renewable turnaround is planned in Q1 with expected utilization around 70%.Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 132.54B | 138.86B | 148.38B | 177.45B | 119.98B |
| Gross Profit | 9.85B | 9.29B | 16.51B | 22.57B | 6.61B |
| EBITDA | 11.54B | 10.60B | 18.56B | 24.88B | 7.45B |
| Net Income | 4.05B | 3.44B | 9.68B | 14.52B | 9.74B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 85.56B | 78.86B | 85.99B | 89.90B | 85.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.67B | 3.21B | 10.22B | 11.77B | 10.84B |
| Total Debt | 34.36B | 28.76B | 28.50B | 27.91B | 26.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.47B | 54.35B | 54.59B | 54.82B | 51.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.31B | 17.75B | 24.40B | 27.71B | 26.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.77B | 6.13B | 12.23B | 13.94B | 2.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.25B | 8.66B | 14.12B | 16.36B | 4.36B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.27B | 1.53B | -3.10B | 623.00M | 14.80B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.52B | -12.43B | -14.21B | -13.65B | -14.42B |
Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis
Positive
241.73
Price Trends
210.11
Positive
195.71
Positive
186.15
Positive
Market Momentum
9.96
Positive
61.96
Neutral
51.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 241.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 234.45, above the 50-day MA of 210.11, and above the 200-day MA of 186.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.96 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.
Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $70.62B | 11.90 | 15.90% | 3.68% | -10.56% | -53.06% | |
69 Neutral | $72.99B | 10.87 | 9.88% | 2.74% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
68 Neutral | $71.25B | 12.26 | 24.01% | 2.24% | -6.37% | -25.83% | |
68 Neutral | $13.26B | 13.57 | 7.27% | 6.88% | -5.18% | -33.14% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $10.95B | 14.84 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
57 Neutral | $5.31B | -19.51 | -3.05% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% |
* Energy Sector Average
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
241.73
122.62
102.96%
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VLO
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244.09
140.47
135.56%
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45.39
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SUN
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64.74
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33.03%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.