Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
NYSE:MPC
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Marathon Petroleum
(NYSE:MPC)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$263.00
▲(23.08% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but cyclical financial performance (improving margins and strong free cash flow, but higher leverage and below-peak profitability). Technicals add support via a clear uptrend without overbought signals. These positives are tempered by a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E with a modest yield), while the latest earnings call guidance and capital-return stance provide an additional near-term tailwind.
Positive Factors
Robust cash generation
Marathon generates strong, recurring operating cash and rising free cash flow, which supports reinvestment, capital projects, and sizable shareholder returns. Durable cash conversion underpins funding for MPLX investments and buybacks even through cyclical refining cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage has meaningfully increased, leaving MPC more exposed to margin and cycle risk. Higher debt amplifies earnings volatility and reduces financial flexibility; operating cash flow covers a moderate share of debt, constraining the buffer if refining margins weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust cash generation
Marathon generates strong, recurring operating cash and rising free cash flow, which supports reinvestment, capital projects, and sizable shareholder returns. Durable cash conversion underpins funding for MPLX investments and buybacks even through cyclical refining cycles.
Read all positive factors
Marathon Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business areas, indicating which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Highlights profitability across different business areas, indicating which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMarathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$74.45B
Dividend Yield2.24%
Average Volume (3M)2.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.2
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth-1.29%
EPS Growth114.86%
CountryUS
Employees18,300
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)15.33
Shares Outstanding291,936,650
10 Day Avg. Volume2,236,368
30 Day Avg. Volume2,667,159
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.39
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio10.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$259.43Price Target Upside21.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)25.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$153.83B
Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment ...
How the Company Makes Money
MPC primarily makes money through (1) refining and marketing margin generation and (2) midstream and logistics earnings. In refining and marketing, MPC purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, processes them in its refineries into higher-value re...
Marathon Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial outlook driven by strong refining execution, margin capture, sizable capital projects coming online (Garyville, Robinson), and substantial MPLX-driven midstream growth. Management emphasized robust cash generation and an aggressive capital-return posture (over $1B returned in Q1 and a new $5B buyback authorization). Key near-term negatives included significant derivative-related unrealized losses (~$500M), working capital usage (~$573M), midstream EBITDA decline (~$122M), and elevated turnaround costs ($530M). Management highlighted commercial and operational flexibility, strong liquidity (~$2.2B cash), and confidence in sustaining performance, but also acknowledged material market volatility and inventory risks. Overall, positives (execution, higher EBITDA, strategic investments, and shareholder returns) materially outweigh the headwinds (derivative losses, WC impact, and regional maintenance-related softness).Positive Updates
Strong operational performance and safety
Refineries ran at 89% utilization in Q1 2026 with first-quarter capture of 99%; the company recorded its strongest first-quarter process safety performance and the lowest level of unplanned downtime this decade while completing ~40% of full-year planned maintenance activity.
Negative Updates
Derivative losses and working capital strain
Q1 derivative-related unrealized losses of approximately $500 million (with midstream representing ~$63 million of that); margin calls and derivatives contributed to a working capital use of ~ $340 million and overall working capital use of ~$573 million for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong operational performance and safety
Refineries ran at 89% utilization in Q1 2026 with first-quarter capture of 99%; the company recorded its strongest first-quarter process safety performance and the lowest level of unplanned downtime this decade while completing ~40% of full-year planned maintenance activity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to a strong second quarter for Refining & Marketing, planning refinery utilization of about 94% (up from 89% in Q1 when system throughput was nearly 3.0 million bpd and regional utilization was 89% Gulf Coast / 88% Mid‑Con / 92% West Coast), and said Q1 capture was 99% (and would have exceeded 100% absent derivative timing and secondary-product headwinds) with those derivative effects expected to unwind into Q2; Q1 financials included adjusted EPS $1.65, consolidated adjusted EBITDA $2.8 billion, R&M adjusted EBITDA ≈$1.4 billion and $5.37/boe, operating cash flow excluding working capital $1.7 billion, Q1 R&M capital invested ≈$330 million (≈25% of 2026 R&M value‑enhancing capital to Garyville), Q1 turnaround costs $530 million (≈40% of full‑year activity; full‑year turnarounds unchanged at $1.35 billion), more than $1 billion returned to shareholders in Q1 (including $750 million repurchases) plus a new $5 billion repurchase authorization (payout ratio 62%), and programmatic operational and commercial actions — including running ~10 million barrels of SPR purchases in Q2, Garyville’s +30,000 bpd incremental jet capacity online in March, El Paso yield work coming in Q2, Robinson jet flexibility enabling ~10,000 bpd in Q3 — all while MPLX invests >$2.4 billion in 2026 (≈90% to natural gas/NGL) and targets 12.5% distribution growth over two years with mid‑single‑digit adjusted EBITDA growth.Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 135.75B | 132.70B | 138.86B | 148.38B | 177.45B | 119.98B |
| Gross Profit | 11.95B | 10.00B | 9.29B | 16.51B | 22.57B | 6.61B |
| EBITDA | 12.39B | 11.68B | 10.60B | 18.56B | 24.88B | 7.45B |
| Net Income | 4.63B | 4.05B | 3.44B | 9.68B | 14.52B | 9.74B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 88.19B | 85.56B | 78.86B | 85.99B | 89.90B | 85.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.15B | 3.67B | 3.21B | 10.22B | 11.77B | 10.84B |
| Total Debt | 34.33B | 34.36B | 28.76B | 28.50B | 27.91B | 26.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 64.76B | 61.47B | 54.35B | 54.59B | 54.82B | 51.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.75B | 17.31B | 17.75B | 24.40B | 27.71B | 26.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.70B | 4.77B | 6.13B | 12.23B | 13.94B | 2.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.44B | 8.25B | 8.66B | 14.12B | 16.36B | 4.36B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.09B | -6.27B | 1.53B | -3.10B | 623.00M | 14.80B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.01B | -1.52B | -12.43B | -14.21B | -13.65B | -14.42B |
Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis
Neutral
213.69
Price Trends
220.23
Negative
199.05
Positive
189.29
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.36
Positive
38.38
Neutral
19.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 213.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 234.84, below the 50-day MA of 220.23, and above the 200-day MA of 189.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MPC.
Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.62B | 4.35 | 13.11% | 4.26% | -1.08% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $14.58B | 3.45 | 16.51% | 6.88% | 37.27% | -29.09% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $74.45B | 35.24 | 27.33% | 2.24% | -1.29% | 114.86% | |
63 Neutral | $74.45B | 14.57 | 17.63% | 2.74% | -2.53% | 385.02% | |
57 Neutral | $5.00B | 7.04 | 8.35% | 4.14% | -4.33% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $70.64B | 88.46 | 14.72% | 3.68% | -1.33% | 130.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
255.03
96.17
60.54%
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PBF
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SUN
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Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Marathon Petroleum Shareholders Back Board, Reject Governance Changes
Neutral
May 1, 2026
At Marathon Petroleum’s 2026 annual meeting held on April 29, 2026, shareholders elected four Class III directors — Maryann T. Mannen, Eileen P. Paterson, J. Michael Stice and John P. Surma — to terms running through the 2029 ann...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Marathon Petroleum Bolsters Liquidity With New Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Marathon Petroleum entered into a new $5.0 billion unsecured revolving credit agreement maturing in 2031, replacing its 2022 facility and providing flexible liquidity for general corporate purposes, with options to upsize by $1.0...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.