Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $52.95B
• Dividend Yield: 2.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: -6.39%
• EPS Growth: -64.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 307,213,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,248,755
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,596,724
• PEG Ratio: -0.79
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.80
• 1Y Price Target: $182.46
• Price Target Upside: 4.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $192.00 ▲(10.24%Upside)

Marathon Petroleum's strong financial performance and strategic investments, particularly in the midstream segment, are key strengths. However, challenges such as revenue contraction and valuation concerns balance these strengths. The technical indicators suggest potential near-term volatility, while the earnings call points to mixed operational outcomes.

Positive Factors

Refining Earnings

Stronger benchmark cracks, up approximately 40% quarter-over-quarter, supports improved Refining earnings.

Shareholder Returns

Marathon Petroleum has delivered sector-leading total shareholder returns and capital returns post-Speedway divestiture.

Negative Factors

Earnings Momentum

Earnings momentum is stalled by seasonal factors.

Operational Risks

Unplanned downtime at Galveston Bay beginning in mid-June may impact results if the unit remains offline for an extended period.

Tax Rate Impact

The effective tax rate is expected to increase to 15% from 10%.

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Marathon Petroleum primarily generates revenue through its refining and marketing operations, where it processes crude oil into various refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The company also operates a vast network of retail outlets under the Speedway brand, contributing to its earnings by selling fuel and convenience store merchandise directly to consumers. Additionally, MPC's midstream segment, mainly through its subsidiary MPLX LP, provides transportation and logistics services, including the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas and crude oil. Significant partnerships with suppliers and distributors, alongside its strategic infrastructure investments, bolster its capacity to efficiently deliver energy products, thus enhancing profitability.

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Marathon Petroleum demonstrates strong cash generation and operational efficiency. However, challenges exist in maintaining revenue growth and profit margins amidst fluctuating market conditions. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a strong equity position.

Income Statement

Marathon Petroleum has shown strong resilience in its income statement metrics. The gross profit margin for the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 6.06%. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 1.76% compared to previous periods. Revenue growth has been negative due to the recent downturn in revenues, dropping from $149 billion to $138 billion. The EBIT margin stands at 3.89%, showcasing operational efficiency but a decline from prior periods. Overall, the company has maintained profitability amidst industry challenges, although revenue contraction poses a risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.96 as of the latest data, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 14.85%, showing a reduction in shareholder returns. The equity ratio is 20.08%, reflecting a stable capital structure. While the company manages its liabilities well, the recent decline in equity highlights potential risks if leverage increases.

Cash Flow

Marathon Petroleum's cash flow metrics demonstrate robust cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow for the TTM is $4.46 billion, although it shows a decrease from $6.13 billion in the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.90 indicates strong cash conversion efficiency. However, the decline in free cash flow growth rate suggests potential constraints in reinvestment capacity.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	138.86B	149.35B	178.24B	120.45B	69.90B
Gross Profit	9.29B	20.78B	26.57B	10.44B	4.16B
EBITDA	10.60B	18.65B	22.96B	7.42B	-8.90B
Net Income	3.44B	9.68B	14.52B	1.29B	-11.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	78.86B	85.99B	89.90B	85.37B	85.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.21B	10.22B	11.77B	10.84B	415.00M
Total Debt	28.76B	28.50B	27.91B	26.90B	33.09B
Total Liabilities	54.35B	54.59B	54.82B	51.79B	54.94B
Stockholders Equity	17.75B	24.40B	27.71B	26.21B	22.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.13B	12.23B	13.94B	2.90B	-368.00M
Operating Cash Flow	8.66B	14.12B	16.36B	4.36B	2.42B
Investing Cash Flow	1.53B	-3.10B	623.00M	14.80B	-3.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-12.43B	-14.21B	-13.65B	-14.42B	-135.00M

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 174.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 174.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 172.56, above the 50-day MA of 164.74, and above the 200-day MA of 150.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	76 Outperform	$52.26B	29.25	6.48%	3.88%	-7.61%	-66.18%
SUN	73 Outperform	$8.11B	9.54	26.11%	6.91%	-3.59%	22.77%
MPC	68 Neutral	$52.95B	24.47	12.37%	2.11%	-6.39%	-64.50%
DINO	66 Neutral	$8.08B	35.13	-1.49%	4.67%	-11.17%	-109.60%
VLO	65 Neutral	$46.61B	52.46	3.73%	3.16%	-8.44%	-85.95%
PBF	54 Neutral	$2.89B	―	-18.01%	4.40%	-16.30%	-160.78%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.94B	-1.05	-3.46%	5.87%	3.01%	-47.13%

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Marathon Petroleum Announces Executive Vice President Retirement

On April 28, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced the retirement of Timothy J. Aydt, Executive Vice President of Refining, effective September 2, 2025, after over 40 years of service. Mike Henschen will succeed him on June 1, 2025, with Aydt remaining in a non-executive role to aid in the transition until his retirement.