Want to see VLO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Valero Energy
(NYSE:VLO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$285.00
▲(27.43% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving TTM profitability and strong recent free cash flow, tempered by elevated TTM leverage risk and the sector’s cyclicality. Technicals are broadly supportive longer-term but neutral near-term, while valuation appears reasonable. The latest earnings call adds a positive tilt from the operational/earnings rebound and shareholder returns, partially offset by Port Arthur outage uncertainty and ongoing capture-rate volatility.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow & Conversion
Sustained TTM free cash flow near $6.1B with nearly 1:1 conversion to net income indicates high cash quality. Over the medium term this funds sustaining capex, dividends and opportunistic buybacks, preserves liquidity through cycles and supports strategic investments without reliance on equity issuance.
Negative Factors
Elevated Trailing Leverage
A marked step-up in TTM leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk if refining margins deteriorate. Higher leverage increases interest cost sensitivity and constrains capital allocation choices, making the company more vulnerable to cyclical margin shocks over the coming 2-6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow & Conversion
Sustained TTM free cash flow near $6.1B with nearly 1:1 conversion to net income indicates high cash quality. Over the medium term this funds sustaining capex, dividends and opportunistic buybacks, preserves liquidity through cycles and supports strategic investments without reliance on equity issuance.
Read all positive factors
Valero Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Refining Operating Income by Geography
Highlights the profitability of refining activities in various locations, offering insight into regional performance and strategic positioning.
Highlights the profitability of refining activities in various locations, offering insight into regional performance and strategic positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyValero Energy (VLO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$79.51B
Dividend Yield2.74%
Average Volume (3M)3.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth-2.53%
EPS Growth385.02%
CountryUS
Employees9,898
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.78
Shares Outstanding296,932,770
10 Day Avg. Volume3,247,770
30 Day Avg. Volume3,042,697
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.83
Price to Book (P/B)2.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio10.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$267.50Price Target Upside19.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)29.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$134.32B
Valero Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valero Energy Corporation functions as a global producer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemicals, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international territories. The company org...
How the Company Makes Money
Valero makes money mainly by manufacturing fuels and related products and selling them into wholesale markets. Its largest earnings driver is petroleum refining: Valero buys crude oil and other refinery feedstocks, processes them in its refineries...
Valero Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a strong operational and financial recovery in Q1 2026 with sizable swings to profitability across refining, renewable diesel and ethanol. Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation, a robust balance sheet, and proactive risk/hedge management while providing detailed near-term guidance. Key challenges include the Port Arthur fire (uncertain repair timeline and potential incremental capex), Benicia idling-related depreciation, tight global product markets (jet/distillate shortages), feedstock (VGO) constraints, and capture-rate headwinds from backwardation and freight volatility. Overall, the positive financial and liquidity metrics and clear operational execution outweigh the operational and market headwinds discussed.Positive Updates
Strong Net Income and EPS Turnaround
Net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $1.3 billion in Q1 2026 (EPS $4.22) versus a net loss of $595 million in Q1 2025 (EPS -$1.90) — a positive swing of $1.895 billion and EPS improvement of $6.12.
Negative Updates
Port Arthur Hydrotreater Fire and Operational Impact
Fire on March 23 in the diesel hydrotreater forced a precautionary full shutdown; while many units were restarted and throughput expected to normalize by May 1, the diesel hydrotreater sustained extensive damage with no rebuild timeline yet. Kerosen e hydrotreater expected back by Q3; impacts could reduce capture rates and require additional 2026 capex (expected to be insurance-covered subject to deductibles).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Net Income and EPS Turnaround
Net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $1.3 billion in Q1 2026 (EPS $4.22) versus a net loss of $595 million in Q1 2025 (EPS -$1.90) — a positive swing of $1.895 billion and EPS improvement of $6.12.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valero’s guidance called for Q2 refining throughput of Gulf Coast 1.69–1.74 million bpd, Mid‑Continent 450,000–470,000 bpd, West Coast 120,000–130,000 bpd (Benicia idled) and North Atlantic 480,000–500,000 bpd, with refining cash operating expenses of ~ $4.85/boe; Renewable Diesel sales of ~320 million gallons in Q2 with operating expenses of ~$0.46/gal (including ~$0.22/gal non‑cash D&A); Ethanol production of ~4.7 million gallons/day with operating expenses of ~$0.39/gal (including ~$0.04/gal non‑cash D&A); Q2 net interest expense of ~ $145 million and total Q2 depreciation & amortization of ~ $730 million (including ~$33 million incremental D&A from Benicia) with the Benicia incremental D&A expected to reduce Q2 EPS by roughly $0.09; 2026 G&A is expected to be ~ $960 million; the Port Arthur diesel hydrotreater fire will require additional 2026 capital expenditures (expected to be covered by insurance subject to deductibles) and Valero will update 2026 CapEx guidance when a definitive cost estimate and repair timeline are available, while prior guidance outside Port Arthur for sustaining and growth projects remains unchanged.Valero Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 126.17B | 122.69B | 129.88B | 144.77B | 176.38B | 113.98B |
| Gross Profit | 9.13B | 5.37B | 4.76B | 12.89B | 16.75B | 3.08B |
| EBITDA | 9.11B | 6.72B | 7.03B | 14.66B | 18.34B | 4.55B |
| Net Income | 4.21B | 2.35B | 2.77B | 8.84B | 11.53B | 930.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 62.14B | 57.99B | 60.14B | 63.06B | 60.98B | 57.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.73B | 4.69B | 4.66B | 5.42B | 4.86B | 4.12B |
| Total Debt | 11.49B | 11.70B | 11.54B | 12.64B | 12.72B | 15.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.21B | 31.38B | 32.62B | 34.53B | 35.51B | 38.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.87B | 23.73B | 24.51B | 26.35B | 23.56B | 18.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.93B | 5.03B | 5.78B | 8.32B | 10.89B | 4.19B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.26B | 5.83B | 6.68B | 9.23B | 12.57B | 5.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.61B | -1.84B | -1.98B | -1.86B | -2.81B | -2.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.68B | -4.18B | -5.05B | -6.94B | -8.85B | -2.85B |
Valero Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
223.65
Price Trends
248.89
Positive
236.72
Positive
203.81
Positive
Market Momentum
4.22
Negative
61.20
Neutral
81.96
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 223.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 253.74, below the 50-day MA of 248.89, and above the 200-day MA of 203.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLO.
Valero Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $13.07B | 10.89 | 13.11% | 4.26% | -1.08% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $77.76B | 17.37 | 27.33% | 2.24% | -1.29% | 114.86% | |
63 Neutral | $79.51B | 19.43 | 17.63% | 2.74% | -2.53% | 385.02% | |
61 Neutral | $2.54B | ― | -37.66% | 3.42% | -6.49% | 93.38% | |
56 Neutral | $70.73B | 17.31 | 14.72% | 3.68% | -1.33% | 130.72% | |
56 Neutral | $5.66B | 12.63 | 8.35% | 4.14% | -4.33% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
VLO
Valero Energy
267.76
127.61
91.05%
DK
Delek US Holdings
52.61
29.61
128.74%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
72.50
29.75
69.59%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
266.35
93.29
53.90%
PSX
Phillips 66
176.42
54.21
44.36%
PBF
PBF Energy
47.81
24.25
102.89%
Valero Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Valero Energy Announces Leadership Transition and Board Decisions
Positive
May 8, 2026
Valero Energy reported that Eric A. Fisher, Senior Vice President for Product Supply, Trading and Wholesale, notified the company on May 7, 2026 that he intends to retire around July 1, 2026, and will assist with transitioning his responsibilities...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.