Valero Energy (VLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $51.58B
• Dividend Yield: 2.62%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: -8.48%
• EPS Growth: -56.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,898
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 3.66
• Shares Outstanding: 305,009,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,343,685
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,419,923
• PEG Ratio: -0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.35
• 1Y Price Target: $184.27
• Price Target Upside: 4.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $194.00 ▲(10.22% Upside)

Valero Energy's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive technical indicators, supported by a favorable earnings call. The company's high leverage and valuation concerns are offset by robust operational efficiency and strategic shareholder returns. Investors should monitor leverage and the Renewable Diesel segment's challenges.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Valero's record refining throughput demonstrates its operational efficiency and capacity to optimize production, which is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage and profitability in the refining industry.

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation relative to net income indicates Valero's ability to efficiently convert earnings into cash, supporting financial stability and capacity for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Market Position

As one of the largest independent refiners, Valero's extensive refining capacity strengthens its market position, enabling it to capitalize on economies of scale and meet diverse market demands.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses risks to Valero's financial flexibility, potentially impacting its ability to invest in growth opportunities or weather economic downturns without financial strain.

Renewable Diesel Segment Loss

Losses in the Renewable Diesel segment highlight challenges in diversifying into sustainable energy markets, which could affect long-term growth and adaptation to industry trends.

Revenue Volatility

Volatile revenue trends can impact Valero's financial predictability and planning, potentially affecting its ability to sustain consistent growth and shareholder returns over time.

Valero Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valero Energy Corporation is a global manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. Headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, the company operates 15 refineries with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, making it one of the largest independent refiners in the world. Valero also produces renewable diesel and ethanol, contributing to its portfolio of clean energy solutions. The company serves various markets, including retail, commercial, and industrial sectors, primarily in the United States and Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Valero Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining of crude oil into petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The company operates on a margin-based model where it purchases crude oil and other feedstocks and sells the refined products at higher prices. Key revenue streams include sales of refined petroleum products, renewable fuels, and petrochemicals. Additionally, Valero benefits from its extensive network of retail convenience stores and fuel stations, which provide a direct consumer channel. The company also engages in strategic partnerships, including collaborations with renewable energy ventures, which enhance its product offerings and contribute to its earnings. Market factors such as crude oil prices, refining margins, and demand for gasoline and diesel significantly influence Valero's financial performance.

Valero Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valero Energy demonstrates resilience in its financial performance with strong operational efficiency and cash flow generation, despite revenue fluctuations. The high leverage poses a potential risk, but a solid equity base provides stability. Overall, the company is well-positioned within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry but must manage its leverage to mitigate financial risks.

Income Statement

Valero Energy's revenue has shown volatility, with a recent decline in TTM compared to previous years. However, the company maintains a respectable gross profit margin of 2.54% and a net profit margin of 0.62% in TTM. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, indicating operational efficiency. Despite recent revenue fluctuations, the company shows resilience in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

Valero Energy's balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.42, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 3.17%, reflecting moderate profitability for equity holders. The equity ratio is a solid 19.94%, showcasing a strong asset base against liabilities. While leverage is a concern, the company maintains a stable equity position.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow statement shows strong free cash flow generation with a recent growth rate of -35.23% in TTM, reflecting challenges in maintaining previous cash flow levels. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 5.57, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio highlights some constraints in fully translating earnings to free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	123.78B	129.88B	144.77B	176.38B	113.98B	64.91B
Gross Profit	3.08B	4.76B	12.89B	16.75B	3.08B	-788.00M
EBITDA	4.28B	7.03B	14.66B	18.34B	4.55B	904.00M
Net Income	764.00M	2.77B	8.84B	11.53B	930.00M	-1.43B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	59.43B	60.14B	63.06B	60.98B	57.89B	51.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.56B	4.66B	5.42B	4.86B	4.12B	3.31B
Total Debt	10.65B	11.54B	12.64B	12.72B	15.13B	15.85B
Total Liabilities	32.49B	32.62B	34.53B	35.51B	38.07B	32.13B
Stockholders Equity	24.08B	24.51B	26.35B	23.56B	18.43B	18.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.74B	5.78B	8.32B	10.89B	4.19B	-840.00M
Operating Cash Flow	4.25B	6.68B	9.23B	12.57B	5.86B	948.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.00B	-1.98B	-1.86B	-2.81B	-2.16B	-2.42B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.09B	-5.05B	-6.94B	-8.85B	-2.85B	2.08B

Valero Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 176.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 176.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 166.08, above the 50-day MA of 163.86, and above the 200-day MA of 138.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLO.

Valero Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLO	75 Outperform	$51.58B	35.20	6.07%	2.62%	-8.48%	-56.92%
PSX	73 Outperform	$54.70B	37.10	5.38%	3.46%	-10.56%	-53.06%
MPC	70 Outperform	$55.24B	19.60	15.98%	1.86%	-6.37%	-25.83%
SUN	69 Neutral	$8.02B	25.74	9.20%	6.88%	-5.18%	-25.67%
DINO	68 Neutral	$9.83B	25.72	4.07%	3.79%	-9.55%	27.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
PBF	55 Neutral	$4.09B	―	-9.47%	3.18%	-15.35%	-81.94%

Valero Energy Corporate Events

Valero Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Future Optimizations

Valero Energy Corporation reported a significant increase in net income for the third quarter of 2025, with earnings reaching $1.1 billion, or $3.53 per share, compared to $364 million, or $1.14 per share, in the same period last year. The company also announced the optimization of its St. Charles FCC Unit, expected to commence operations in the latter half of 2026, reflecting its commitment to operational excellence and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLO) stock is a Buy with a $216.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valero Energy stock, see the VLO Stock Forecast page.

Valero Energy Amends Credit Agreement for Flexibility

On October 16, 2025, Valero Energy Corporation amended its revolving credit agreement, extending the maturity date to October 16, 2030, and increasing the potential revolving commitment to $5.5 billion. This move is aimed at enhancing the company’s financial flexibility for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLO) stock is a Hold with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valero Energy stock, see the VLO Stock Forecast page.

Valero Energy Expands Board with New Director

On September 18, 2025, Valero Energy Corporation expanded its board of directors to 10 members by electing Robert L. Reymond as an independent director. Mr. Reymond, who has extensive experience in the energy industry, particularly in refining and low-carbon fuels, will serve on the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee. This strategic appointment is expected to enhance Valero’s expertise in the energy sector, potentially impacting its operations and market positioning positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLO) stock is a Hold with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valero Energy stock, see the VLO Stock Forecast page.

Valero Energy’s Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights

Valero Energy Corporation’s recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both achievements and challenges. The company reported record refining throughput and strong shareholder returns, reflecting a positive outlook for refining fundamentals. However, these positives were tempered by declines in net income and losses in the renewable diesel segment, alongside the impending closure of the Benicia Refinery.

Valero Energy Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Valero Energy Corporation is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products, operating primarily in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Latin America. The company owns 15 petroleum refineries and 12 ethanol plants, and is involved in a joint venture for renewable diesel production.