Valero Energy (VLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $49.69B
• Dividend Yield: 2.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.69M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -8.48%
• EPS Growth: -56.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,898
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 3.66
• Shares Outstanding: 305,009,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,908,236
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,685,185
• PEG Ratio: -0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.38
• 1Y Price Target: $186.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $190.00 ▲(17.33% Upside)

Valero Energy's overall stock score reflects a balance of strengths and challenges. The company's strong cash flow and operational efficiency are significant positives, while high valuation and profitability pressures pose risks. The earnings call provided a positive outlook, but technical indicators suggest a lack of strong momentum. Investors should weigh the robust cash generation against valuation concerns.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation enhances financial flexibility, allowing Valero to invest in growth opportunities and return value to shareholders.

Operational Efficiency

High utilization rates indicate efficient operations, maximizing output and profitability, and strengthening Valero's competitive position.

Leadership Transition

A planned leadership transition supports strategic continuity and financial strength, ensuring effective management and execution of corporate objectives.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Declining revenue growth can hinder long-term expansion and profitability, potentially impacting Valero's market position and financial health.

Renewable Diesel Segment Loss

Losses in the Renewable Diesel segment could affect Valero's ability to capitalize on the growing sustainable fuels market, impacting future growth.

Profitability Pressures

Decreasing profit margins suggest limited pricing power and operational challenges, which may affect Valero's ability to sustain earnings growth.

Valero Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a publicly traded international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. Headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, Valero operates a diverse portfolio of refineries, primarily in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company’s core products include gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and various petrochemical products used in the production of plastics and other materials. Valero is also a leading producer of renewable diesel and ethanol, positioning itself in the growing market for sustainable fuels.

How the Company Makes Money

Valero Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining of crude oil into finished petroleum products, which is its largest revenue stream. The company operates a network of refineries that process a variety of crude oil types, allowing it to maximize margins based on market conditions. In addition to traditional fuels, Valero also produces renewable fuels, including biodiesel and ethanol, which contribute to its revenue, especially as demand for green energy increases. Another significant revenue source is the sale of petrochemical products, which are derived from the refining process and used in various industries. Valero's strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers, along with its investments in technology and optimization of refining processes, further enhance its profitability. The company also engages in marketing and logistics, which support its distribution of fuels and chemicals, adding to its revenue diversification.

Valero Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valero Energy's financial statements present a mixed picture. The company faces challenges with declining revenue growth and profitability pressures, as seen in the income statement. However, the balance sheet remains stable with manageable leverage, and the cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities. While there are areas of concern, particularly in profitability, the company's financial position is supported by solid cash flow performance.

Income Statement

Valero Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate in the TTM period. Profit margins have also decreased compared to previous years, indicating pressure on profitability. However, the company maintains positive net profit and EBIT margins, suggesting some level of operational efficiency. The gross profit margin remains low, which is typical for the industry but indicates limited pricing power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. Valero Energy has a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity has decreased significantly from previous years, suggesting reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid asset base. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability but highlights potential risks if profitability does not improve.

Cash Flow

Valero Energy's cash flow statement shows a positive trend in free cash flow growth in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting efficient cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, reflecting effective cash management. Despite past fluctuations, the current cash flow position is robust, supporting financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	123.07B	129.88B	144.77B	176.38B	113.98B	64.91B
Gross Profit	4.11B	4.76B	12.89B	16.75B	3.08B	-788.00M
EBITDA	5.39B	7.03B	14.66B	18.34B	4.55B	904.00M
Net Income	1.50B	2.77B	8.84B	11.53B	930.00M	-1.43B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.62B	60.14B	63.06B	60.98B	57.89B	51.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.76B	4.66B	5.42B	4.86B	4.12B	3.31B
Total Debt	10.58B	11.54B	12.64B	12.72B	15.13B	15.85B
Total Liabilities	31.87B	32.62B	34.53B	35.51B	38.07B	32.13B
Stockholders Equity	23.75B	24.51B	26.35B	23.56B	18.43B	18.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.36B	5.78B	8.32B	10.89B	4.19B	-840.00M
Operating Cash Flow	4.84B	6.68B	9.23B	12.57B	5.86B	948.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.97B	-1.98B	-1.86B	-2.81B	-2.16B	-2.42B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.21B	-5.05B	-6.94B	-8.85B	-2.85B	2.08B

Valero Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 161.94
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 161.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 173.36, below the 50-day MA of 170.32, and above the 200-day MA of 143.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VLO.

Valero Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	73 Outperform	$53.18B	36.07	5.38%	3.60%	-10.56%	-53.06%
MPC	70 Outperform	$53.14B	18.85	15.98%	2.22%	-6.37%	-25.83%
VLO	69 Neutral	$49.69B	33.91	6.07%	2.77%	-8.48%	-56.92%
DINO	68 Neutral	$8.73B	22.83	4.07%	4.22%	-9.55%	27.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
PBF	55 Neutral	$3.08B	-5.58	-9.47%	4.23%	-15.35%	-81.94%
DK	49 Neutral	$1.89B	-3.76	-115.95%	3.24%	-22.37%	-27.22%

Valero Energy Corporate Events

Valero Energy Appoints New CFO Amid Leadership Transition

On October 28, 2025, Valero Energy Corporation announced the appointment of Homer Bhullar as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective January 1, 2026. Bhullar, who has been with Valero since 2014 and served in various leadership roles, will succeed Jason Fraser, who is set to retire at the end of 2025 after over 25 years with the company. This transition is part of Valero’s succession planning and is expected to support the company’s strategic objectives and financial strength.

Valero Energy Amends Credit Agreement for Flexibility

On October 16, 2025, Valero Energy Corporation amended its revolving credit agreement, extending the maturity date to October 16, 2030, and increasing the potential revolving commitment to $5.5 billion. This move is aimed at enhancing the company’s financial flexibility for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning.

Valero Energy Expands Board with New Director

On September 18, 2025, Valero Energy Corporation expanded its board of directors to 10 members by electing Robert L. Reymond as an independent director. Mr. Reymond, who has extensive experience in the energy industry, particularly in refining and low-carbon fuels, will serve on the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee. This strategic appointment is expected to enhance Valero’s expertise in the energy sector, potentially impacting its operations and market positioning positively.