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Valero Energy (VLO)
NYSE:VLO
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Valero Energy (VLO) AI Stock Analysis

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VLO

Valero Energy

(NYSE:VLO)

Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$166.00
â–˛(12.51%Upside)
Valero Energy's overall stock score reflects a mix of stable financial performance and technical analysis signals. The company's strong cash flow management and operational efficiency are key strengths. However, high valuation metrics and regulatory challenges pose risks. The earnings call highlighted both significant setbacks and positive shareholder-focused initiatives, contributing to a balanced but cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Export Demand
Strong export demand is noted with open arbitrages to Europe, benefiting the company's market position.
Refining Performance
Higher throughput and rising cracks support refining results, indicating strong performance in the refining sector.
Stock Price Target
The price target for VLO has been increased to $140, reflecting an optimistic view on potential future performance.
Negative Factors
Earnings Growth
There is potential for stabilization-to-downside from here given bullishness reflected in the stock and limited underlying earnings growth.
Renewable Diesel Segment
Renewable Diesel segment faces challenges with rising feedstock costs and softer credit values, impacting profitability.
Tax Rate Impact
A higher tax rate has led to a slight reduction in the Q2'25 estimate.

Valero Energy (VLO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Valero Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionValero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a leading international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels, petrochemical products, and power. Based in San Antonio, Texas, Valero operates through three main segments: refining, ethanol, and renewable diesel. The company owns and operates 15 petroleum refineries with a total throughput capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, as well as 14 ethanol plants with a combined production capacity of 1.73 billion gallons per year. Valero is also a major participant in the renewable fuels market through its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, producing renewable diesel from biomass feedstocks.
How the Company Makes MoneyValero Energy makes money primarily through its refining operations, which involve processing crude oil and other feedstocks into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other petroleum-based products. The company sells these products to wholesale and retail customers, including major oil companies, independent refiners, and other end-users. A significant portion of Valero's revenue also comes from its ethanol production, where the company converts corn into ethanol to be blended with gasoline as an oxygenate to reduce emissions. Additionally, Valero generates revenue from its renewable diesel operations, which benefit from government incentives and growing demand for low-carbon fuels. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as crude oil prices, refining margins, government regulations, and strategic partnerships, including its joint venture with Darling Ingredients for renewable diesel production.

Valero Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Refining Operating Income by Geography
Refining Operating Income by Geography
Highlights the profitability of refining operations in different regions, indicating where Valero Energy is most efficient and where it might face challenges or opportunities due to regional market dynamics.
Chart InsightsValero's refining operating income has been declining across all regions, with the US West Coast showing significant losses, exacerbated by a $1.1 billion asset impairment. The earnings call highlights regulatory challenges in California, leading to the planned closure of the Benicia refinery. Despite improved refining margins and strong shareholder returns, the company faces financial setbacks, including a net loss and operating losses in key segments. Valero's strategic focus remains on operational excellence and shareholder returns, but regulatory and market challenges present significant headwinds.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Valero Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 29.95%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed view with significant financial challenges due to asset impairments and operating losses, particularly in the Refining and Renewable Diesel segments. However, there were positive aspects such as strong shareholder returns, progress on key projects, and a resilient ethanol segment. The decision to close the Benicia refinery highlights ongoing regulatory challenges. While Valero remains committed to operational excellence and shareholder returns, the financial setbacks and regulatory issues present notable headwinds.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Shareholder Returns
Valero maintained a strong payout ratio of 73% in the first quarter and announced a 6% increase in the quarterly cash dividend.
Progress on SEC Unit Optimization Project
The SEC unit optimization project at St. Charles is estimated to cost $230 million and is expected to start up in 2026, aiming to increase the yield of high-value products.
Positive Ethanol Segment Performance
The Ethanol segment reported $20 million of operating income for Q1 2025, up from $10 million in Q1 2024.
Improved Refining Margins
Refining margins improved through the quarter with U.S. light product demand slightly higher than last year and product inventories below the same period last year.
Resumption of Mexican Import Permit
Valero's import permit in Mexico was reinstated after an initial suspension, allowing them to resume operations.
Resilient Cash Flow Management
Net cash provided by operating activities was $952 million in Q1 2025, including a $157 million favorable change in working capital.
Negative Updates
Significant Net Loss
Valero reported a net loss attributable to stockholders of $595 million in Q1 2025 compared to a net income of $1.2 billion in Q1 2024.
Large Asset Impairment Loss
A $1.1 billion pretax asset impairment loss related to West Coast assets impacted financial results, with $900 million attributed to Benicia and $230 million to Wilmington.
Operating Losses in Key Segments
The Refining segment reported an operating loss of $530 million, and the Renewable Diesel segment reported a $141 million operating loss for Q1 2025.
Closure Plans for Benicia Refinery
Valero announced plans to cease refining operations at the Benicia refinery by April 2026 amidst a challenging regulatory environment.
Reduced Renewable Diesel Sales Volumes
Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 2.4 million gallons per day in Q1 2025, with operating losses and market challenges.
Challenges in California Regulatory Environment
Valero cited the stringent regulatory environment in California as a factor in the decision to close the Benicia refinery.
Company Guidance
During the Valero Energy Corporation's first quarter of 2025 earnings call, significant guidance was provided for the upcoming period. The company expects capital investments attributable to Valero for 2025 to be approximately $2 billion, with $1.6 billion allocated to sustaining the business and the rest to growth. For the second quarter, refining throughput volumes are anticipated in specific ranges across regions: Gulf Coast (1.75-1.8 million barrels per day), Mid Continent (385,000-405,000 barrels per day), West Coast (240,000-260,000 barrels per day), and North Atlantic (320,000-340,000 barrels per day). Refining cash operating expenses are expected to be $5.15 per barrel. In the renewable diesel segment, sales volumes are projected to be around 1.1 billion gallons for 2025, with operating expenses at $0.53 per gallon. The Ethanol segment is predicted to produce 4.6 million gallons per day in the second quarter, with operating expenses averaging $0.41 per gallon. Additionally, Valero plans to return $633 million to stockholders, including $356 million in dividends and $277 million in share buybacks, reflecting a payout ratio of 73% for the quarter.

Valero Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Valero Energy demonstrates a commendable financial position, characterized by stable profitability, prudent leverage, and strong cash flow management. Despite facing industry-wide challenges, the company has maintained positive operational metrics and strengthened its balance sheet. However, the decline in revenue and return on equity signals areas for improvement. Overall, Valero is well-positioned to navigate market fluctuations and leverage its strong cash flow for continued growth.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Valero Energy shows resilience in its income statement. The TTM data reveal a gross profit margin of 2.47% and a net profit margin of 0.72%, indicating modest profitability. Although revenue declined slightly from the previous year, the company has maintained positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, showcasing operational efficiency in a challenging market. The revenue growth rate is negative due to market conditions, but the company remains profitable.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Valero's balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.46, indicating prudent leverage levels. The equity ratio stands at 39.70%, reflecting solid capitalization. However, the return on equity has decreased to 3.96% in the TTM, suggesting reduced profitability compared to previous years. The company maintains healthy liquidity, but overall asset growth has slowed.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Valero's cash flow statement is robust, with a free cash flow of $4.86 billion in the TTM, showing a strong recovery from past volatility. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 6.22 indicates efficient cash generation relative to earnings. Although capital expenditures have increased, the company effectively manages its cash flows, ensuring financial stability and operational flexibility.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue129.88B144.77B176.38B113.98B64.91B
Gross Profit4.76B12.90B16.75B3.08B-788.00M
EBITDA7.03B14.66B18.34B4.55B904.00M
Net Income2.77B8.84B11.53B1.29B-1.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets60.14B63.06B60.98B57.89B51.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.66B5.42B4.86B4.12B3.31B
Total Debt11.54B12.64B3.57B1.92B15.85B
Total Liabilities32.62B34.53B35.51B38.07B32.13B
Stockholders Equity24.51B26.35B23.56B18.43B18.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.78B8.32B-1.02B-1.23B-770.00M
Operating Cash Flow6.68B9.23B661.00M439.00M1.02B
Investing Cash Flow-1.98B-1.86B-2.81B-2.16B-2.42B
Financing Cash Flow-5.05B-6.94B-8.85B-2.85B2.08B

Valero Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price147.54
Price Trends
50DMA
137.08
Positive
100DMA
128.65
Positive
200DMA
130.15
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.21
Positive
RSI
58.90
Neutral
STOCH
28.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 147.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 144.32, above the 50-day MA of 137.08, and above the 200-day MA of 130.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLO.

Valero Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$51.40B28.776.48%3.64%-7.61%-66.18%
72
Outperform
$8.03B9.4526.11%6.72%-3.59%22.77%
68
Neutral
$53.84B24.6212.37%2.00%-6.39%-64.50%
67
Neutral
$15.23B9.436.27%5.39%4.07%-71.82%
66
Neutral
$8.45B35.13-1.49%5.47%-11.17%-109.60%
65
Neutral
$45.45B51.163.73%2.98%-8.44%-85.95%
54
Neutral
$2.78B―-18.01%4.42%-16.30%-160.78%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VLO
Valero Energy
147.54
3.23
2.24%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
45.74
-0.32
-0.69%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
177.54
13.63
8.32%
PSX
Phillips 66
127.85
-5.48
-4.11%
PBF
PBF Energy
24.32
-13.15
-35.09%
SUN
Sunoco
52.57
0.91
1.76%

Valero Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Valero Energy Holds Annual Stockholders’ Meeting
Neutral
May 9, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Valero Energy Corporation held its annual stockholders’ meeting where director Robert A. Profusek retired in line with the company’s retirement policy. During the meeting, all director nominees were successfully elected to serve until the 2026 annual meeting, and key proposals, including executive compensation and the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent accounting firm, were approved. Additionally, Valero entered into a Stock Unit Award Agreement with its re-elected non-employee directors, granting stock units valued at $200,000 each, which will vest at the 2026 annual meeting, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning director compensation with shareholder interests.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 11, 2025