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Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
NYSE:MPC
Earnings Data
Report Date
May 05, 2026Before Open (Confirmed)
Period Ending
2026 (Q1)Consensus EPS Forecast
1.48Last Year’s EPS
-0.12Same Quarter Last Year
Moderate Buy
Based on 15 Analysts Ratings
Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial outcomes (high capture rates, strong utilization, record midstream EBITDA, robust cash flow, and $4.5B returned to shareholders), a disciplined capital plan with lower 2026 refining spend, and high-return project announcements. Near-term headwinds include Q4 midstream declines from divestitures, renewable margin weakness and a planned turnaround, ongoing labor negotiations, and market-feedstock volatility. Overall, positive fundamentals and clear capital allocation discipline outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Company Guidance
Strong Full-Year Operational Metrics
Full-year margin capture of 105% and refining utilization of 94%, demonstrating high system reliability and competitiveness; company reported its strongest company-wide process safety performance in four years, lowest OSHA recordable injury rate, and fewest designated environmental incidents this decade.
Robust Financial Results
Adjusted EPS of $4.70 in Q4 and $10.70 for the full year; adjusted EBITDA of ~ $3.5 billion for Q4 and ~$12 billion for the full year; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was higher year-over-year by approximately $1.4 billion.
Strong Refining & Marketing Performance
R&M Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 billion; refining throughput just over 3.0 million barrels per day with Q4 refinery run rate of 95%; regional utilizations: Gulf Coast 98%, Mid‑Con 93%, West Coast 91%; Q4 capture of 114% and clean product yield of 86%.
Record Midstream Cash Generation and Growth Plans
Midstream (MPLX) full-year adjusted EBITDA reached a record of nearly $7 billion; MPLX plans $2.4 billion of growth capital with ~90% directed to natural gas/NGL services (Permian & Marcellus) and targets distribution growth of 12.5% over the next two years, implying expected future annual cash distributions to MPC of over $3.5 billion.
Strong Cash Flow and Capital Returns
Operating cash flow (ex. working capital) of $2.7 billion in Q4 (strongest in two years) and $8.7 billion for the year (Maria's figure); generated ~$8.3 billion in cash from operations per management commentary; returned $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2025 and reduced shares outstanding by 6.5%.
Disciplined Capital Allocation and Lower 2026 CapEx
2026 refining value-enhancing capital planned at roughly $700 million (nearly 20% reduction year-over-year); marketing spend of ~$250 million targeted for branded network expansion; company reiterates net debt-to-capital target of 25%-30% and $1 billion target cash balance.
High-Return Project Pipeline
Announced three new refining projects: Garyville feedstock optimization (+30,000 bpd) with $110M in 2026 (+$185M in 2027), Garyville export gasoline flexibility (+10,000 bpd) with $50M in 2026 (+$100M in 2027), and El Paso upgrades ($30M in 2026, online Q2 2026). Management targets returns >=25% for refining projects.
Commercial & Yield Optimization Momentum
Management highlights sustainable improvements in commercial execution and value-capture (capture improved year-over-year for multiple years to 105% full-year), monthly throughput records at Garyville and Robinson, and ability to pivot feedstock slate (system ~50% sour crude diet).
Renewables Segment Activity
Renewable facilities ran at 94% utilization in Q4 and benefited from a one-time sale of credits by the Martinez JV; company is optimizing renewable facilities and has a planned Martinez turnaround in Q1 (expected utilization ~70%).
Favorable Market Positioning & Demand Outlook
Management expects steady-to-improving refined product demand (gasoline and distillates each ~+1% and jet fuel ~+4% in latest year) and anticipates tight global refining system with limited new capacity in 2026, supporting continued favorable refining economics.
MPC Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed
MPC Earnings-Related Price Changes
Report Date | Price 1 Day Before | Price 1 Day After | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Feb 03, 2026 | $176.03 | $186.64 | +6.03% |
Nov 04, 2025 | $193.84 | $181.95 | -6.13% |
Aug 05, 2025 | $165.36 | $166.31 | +0.57% |
May 06, 2025 | $140.32 | $141.51 | +0.85% |
Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.
FAQ
When does Marathon Petroleum (MPC) report earnings?
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is schdueled to report earning on May 05, 2026, Before Open (Confirmed).
What is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) earnings time?
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) earnings time is at May 05, 2026, Before Open (Confirmed).
Where can I see when companies are reporting earnings?
You can see which companies are reporting today on our designated earnings calendar.
What companies are reporting earnings today?
You can see a list of the companies which are reporting today on TipRanks earnings calendar.
What is MPC EPS forecast?
MPC EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter 2026 (Q1) is 1.48.
