Cosan (CSAN)
NYSE:CSAN
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Cosan
(NYSE:CSAN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:39Underperform
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(0.25% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/09/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—large recent net losses, high leverage, and compressed equity—despite positive operating cash flow. Technical signals are also unfavorable with the price below key moving averages and a negative MACD, while valuation is difficult to support due to a negative P/E and no indicated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Diversified energy, logistics and agribusiness holding
Cosan’s diversified holding model spans fuel retail and distribution, lubricants, natural gas, logistics and sugar/ethanol, reducing single-segment dependency. This multi-asset footprint supports recurring cash flows from regulated distribution and logistics contracts, improving resilience over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and compressed equity
A stretched capital structure with high debt relative to compressed equity increases financial vulnerability to earnings shocks. Elevated leverage limits strategic optionality, raises refinancing risk, and can amplify volatility in returns if profitability does not recover sustainably.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified energy, logistics and agribusiness holding
Cosan’s diversified holding model spans fuel retail and distribution, lubricants, natural gas, logistics and sugar/ethanol, reducing single-segment dependency. This multi-asset footprint supports recurring cash flows from regulated distribution and logistics contracts, improving resilience over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Cosan (CSAN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.39B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth-7.39%
EPS Growth-621.47%
CountryUS
Employees53,498
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.10
Shares Outstanding991,642,760
10 Day Avg. Volume1,908,719
30 Day Avg. Volume1,648,448
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.34
P/FCF Ratio183.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap12.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.52
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$30.67B
Cosan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cosan S.A., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the fuel distribution business in Brazil, Europe, Latin America, North America, Asia, and internationally. The company's Raízen segment distributes and markets fuels through a franchised n...
How the Company Makes Money
Cosan makes money primarily by owning and operating (or holding significant equity stakes in) businesses that generate revenue from the sale, distribution, and transportation of energy and agribusiness products and related services. Key revenue st...
Cosan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 14, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Cosan's earnings call presented a mixed outlook. The successful capitalization and strategic shareholder engagement were significant positives, enhancing future growth prospects. However, the company faces challenges with declining EBITDA, negative net income, and unresolved capital structure issues at Raizen. Operational performance was strong in some segments but offset by difficulties in others.Positive Updates
Successful Capitalization and Shareholder Engagement
Cosan successfully completed two rounds of equity offerings, significantly improving its capital structure. The first offering was 10x oversubscribed, and the second also saw significant demand. New strategic shareholders with expertise in infrastructure have joined, enhancing the company's future prospects.
Negative Updates
Decline in EBITDA and Net Income
Cosan reported an EBITDA of BRL 7.4 billion, which is about BRL 1 billion less than 2024, impacted by Moove, Radar, and Raizen. Net income was negative BRL 1.2 billion due to lower EBITDA and higher financial expenses.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Capitalization and Shareholder Engagement
Cosan successfully completed two rounds of equity offerings, significantly improving its capital structure. The first offering was 10x oversubscribed, and the second also saw significant demand. New strategic shareholders with expertise in infrastructure have joined, enhancing the company's future prospects.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During Cosan's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Conference Call, the company reported several financial metrics and strategic initiatives. The EBITDA under management was BRL 7.4 billion, a decrease of approximately BRL 1 billion from the previous year, largely due to the performance of subsidiaries like Moove, Radar, and Raizen. The net income for the quarter was negative BRL 1.2 billion, influenced by lower EBITDA and increased financial expenses. Despite a relatively stable net debt, the company's debt service coverage ratio remained at 1x. Operational highlights included a 4% increase in EBITDA for Rumo due to higher transported volumes, and a 6% growth in Compass's EBITDA, driven by higher distributed volumes and increased residential segment participation. Moove experienced a 13% rise in volumes sold compared to the second quarter, although EBITDA was 7% lower. Additionally, Raizen's sugarcane crushing activities increased, supported by favorable weather, despite lower sugar prices impacting its EBITDA. The call also addressed the company's strategic focus on improving capital structure, with recent transactions and new shareholder engagements aimed at reducing debt to zero or near zero, while maintaining investment attractiveness and portfolio quality.Cosan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 39.62B | 43.95B | 39.47B | 39.32B | 26.09B |
| Gross Profit | 12.92B | 13.71B | 10.92B | 8.77B | 5.83B |
| EBITDA | 12.33B | 13.22B | 14.12B | 11.14B | 12.65B |
| Net Income | -9.53B | -9.42B | 1.09B | 1.18B | 6.31B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 135.05B | 141.27B | 139.87B | 134.48B | 97.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 29.86B | 20.18B | 18.27B | 15.96B | 21.04B |
| Total Debt | 70.60B | 72.97B | 62.18B | 56.52B | 48.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 100.26B | 101.87B | 88.88B | 86.32B | 68.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.30B | 10.90B | 20.96B | 20.65B | 14.74B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 73.75M | 5.25B | 4.01B | 5.44B | 372.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.37B | 13.08B | 10.28B | 9.97B | 5.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.94B | -4.49B | -4.30B | -20.61B | -5.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 7.97B | -6.61B | -4.52B | 8.17B | 2.35B |
Cosan Technical Analysis
Positive
3.99
Price Trends
4.45
Negative
4.42
Negative
4.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
53.64
Neutral
76.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSAN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.11, below the 50-day MA of 4.45, and below the 200-day MA of 4.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSAN.
Cosan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.26B | 4.84 | 28.59% | ― | -10.11% | -7.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $6.68B | 9.20 | 15.50% | 8.03% | -3.51% | 3.75% | |
60 Neutral | $2.46B | 5.68 | -14.06% | 3.42% | -22.37% | -27.22% | |
57 Neutral | $4.77B | -19.51 | -3.05% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
47 Neutral | $3.15B | 94.69 | 4.13% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% | |
39 Underperform | $4.39B | -1.42 | -147.93% | ― | -7.39% | -621.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
CSAN
Cosan
4.36
-0.39
-8.21%
CVI
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30.13
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67.76%
DK
Delek US Holdings
39.35
27.68
237.22%
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes SA
5.99
3.27
120.14%
PBF
PBF Energy
38.96
24.65
172.16%
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
63.26
50.69
403.26%
Cosan Corporate Events
Cosan Says Raízen’s R$65.1 Billion Debt Workout Will Not Impact Its Own Operations
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Cosan reported that its affiliate Raízen S.A. and certain subsidiaries filed for an out-of-court reorganization in São Paulo, covering about R$65.1 billion of unsecured financial debt and intercompany claims. The plan,...
Cosan Cuts Net Debt Sharply Despite Heavy 2025 Loss on Raízen Impairments
Mar 10, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Cosan reported its results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, showing that it navigated a challenging Brazilian macroeconomic backdrop while pushing ahead with measures to strengthen its balance sheet. Management highligh...
Cosan Moves to Launch Compass Secondary Offering and Seek Novo Mercado Upgrade
Mar 6, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Cosan S.A. announced that it had filed an application with Brazilian regulators for a secondary public offering of common shares issued by its controlled company Compass Gás e Energia S.A. The planned offering, to be coordin...
Cosan Evaluates Potential IPO of Compass Gás e Energia
Feb 23, 2026
Cosan S.A. disclosed on February 23, 2026, that it is assessing the possibility of conducting an initial public offering of shares in its subsidiary Compass Gás e Energia, signaling a potential move to crystallize value in its gas and energy ...
Cosan Advances Liability Management With Full Redemption of 2030 and 2031 Bonds
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Cosan S.A. announced another step in its liability management process initiated in 2025, aimed at reducing indebtedness, lowering financial costs and improving its capital structure. Through its wholly owned subsidiary Cosan L...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.