Cosan (CSAN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.79B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: -7.39%
• EPS Growth: -621.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53,498
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 991,642,760
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,908,719
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,648,448
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 13.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.53
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 25.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▲(12.78% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/03/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/03/25

Cosan's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability, which are the most impactful factors. Technical indicators show some positive momentum, but valuation concerns with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield weigh heavily. The mixed results from the earnings call highlight both strategic successes and ongoing operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Capital raising & strategic shareholders

Two successful equity offerings that were heavily oversubscribed and brought in new strategic shareholders materially improve funding flexibility. This durable capital base reduces near-term refinancing risk, enables liability management initiatives, and provides governance and infrastructure expertise to support long-term execution.

Liability management - bond redemptions

Full redemption of senior notes and multi-billion reais repayments shrink the maturity wall and reduce headline debt. Lowering long-dated liabilities is a structural improvement that reduces interest expense risk, eases creditor pressure and materially strengthens the balance sheet over the medium term.

Liquidity optimization while retaining control

Monetizing a minority stake in logistic subsidiary while preserving economic and political rights via derivatives is a durable cash-raising strategy. It provides liquidity to pay down debt or fund operations without permanently forfeiting strategic exposure to a core asset, supporting long-term flexibility.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Very high debt relative to equity creates structural financial vulnerability. Elevated leverage increases interest burden, limits financial flexibility for capex or M&A, and amplifies earnings volatility from commodity cycles, making sustained recovery dependent on successful deleveraging actions.

Negative profitability trends

Declining revenues and a heavily negative net margin indicate structural profitability issues across core segments. Persistent losses erode equity and reduce reinvestment capacity, requiring sustained operational improvements or mix shifts to restore lasting earnings power and shareholder returns.

Weak free cash flow & coverage

Sharp FCF contraction and operating cash insufficient to cover net losses constrain the company’s ability to self-fund debt reduction and investments. Ongoing cash pressure raises the likelihood of further asset sales, equity raises, or costly refinancing, limiting strategic optionality.

Cosan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cosan S.A., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the fuel distribution business in Brazil, Europe, Latin America, North America, Asia, and internationally. The company's Raízen segment distributes and markets fuels through a franchised network of service stations under the Shell brand; engages in the petroleum refining; operation of convenience stores; manufacture and sale of automotive and industrial lubricants; and production and sale of liquefied petroleum gas. This segment also markets various products derived from sugar cane, including raw sugar, and anhydrous and hydrated ethanol, as well as engages in activities related to energy cogeneration from sugarcane bagasse; sale of electricity; and holds interests in companies involved in research and development on new technology. The company's Gas and Power segment distributes piped natural gas to customers in the industrial, residential, commercial, automotive, and cogeneration sectors; and engages in purchase and sale of electricity to other traders. Its Moove segment produces and distributes lubricants under the Mobil and Comma brands. The company's Logistics segment provides logistics services for rail transportation, storage and port loading of commodities, including grains and sugar; and leases locomotives, wagons, and another railroad equipment. Its Cosan Investments segment manages agricultural, mining, and logistics projects; and invests in climate tech fund. Cosan S.A. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Cosan generates revenue through multiple key streams. The largest segment is its sugar and ethanol production, where it earns money from the sale of these commodities both domestically and internationally. The company operates several sugar mills and ethanol distilleries, leveraging Brazil's favorable climate for sugarcane cultivation. Additionally, Cosan's fuel distribution network, primarily through its subsidiary Raízen, which operates service stations and distributes fuels, also contributes significantly to its revenue. The logistics division, which provides integrated solutions for the transportation and storage of goods, particularly in agribusiness, adds another layer of income. Cosan's strategic partnerships, such as its joint venture with Shell in Raízen, further enhance its market presence and operational efficiency, leading to increased earnings.

Cosan Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cosan faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue, high leverage, and negative profitability. The income statement reflects a period of financial strain, while the balance sheet indicates high financial risk due to substantial debt levels. Cash flow constraints further exacerbate the situation, with declining free cash flow growth. The company needs to address these issues to improve financial stability and performance.

Income Statement

Cosan's income statement shows a challenging period with declining revenue and profitability. The TTM data indicates a negative revenue growth rate of -2.26% and a significant net loss, reflected in a net profit margin of -31.04%. While the gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 31.95%, the company faces pressure on its EBIT and EBITDA margins, which have decreased compared to previous years. The negative trends in revenue and profitability highlight potential risks in the company's operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 11.40, indicating significant financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -165.78%, reflecting the company's inability to generate positive returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 25.49%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing. Overall, the high debt levels and negative ROE present concerns about financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cosan's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -29.97% in the TTM period, indicating challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.90, suggesting that operating cash flows are not sufficient to cover the net loss. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.34, further highlighting cash flow constraints. Despite these challenges, the company maintains some ability to generate operating cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	42.57B	43.95B	39.47B	39.32B	26.09B	13.51B
Gross Profit	13.60B	13.71B	10.92B	8.77B	5.83B	3.69B
EBITDA	12.06B	13.22B	14.12B	11.14B	12.65B	1.39B
Net Income	-13.22B	-9.42B	1.09B	1.18B	6.31B	859.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	125.74B	141.27B	139.87B	134.48B	97.84B	83.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.10B	20.18B	18.27B	15.96B	21.04B	17.62B
Total Debt	60.91B	72.97B	62.18B	56.52B	48.93B	45.25B
Total Liabilities	93.69B	101.87B	88.88B	86.32B	68.97B	62.89B
Stockholders Equity	32.05B	10.90B	20.96B	20.65B	14.74B	5.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.65B	5.25B	4.01B	5.44B	372.35M	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	9.90B	13.08B	10.28B	9.97B	5.15B	2.14B
Investing Cash Flow	2.46B	-4.49B	-4.30B	-20.61B	-5.48B	-2.34B
Financing Cash Flow	-13.46B	-6.61B	-4.52B	8.17B	2.35B	-1.54B

Cosan Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.99
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSAN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.68, below the 50-day MA of 4.32, and below the 200-day MA of 4.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSAN.

Cosan Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGP	80 Outperform	$5.69B	10.71	18.26%	8.03%	-3.51%	3.75%
PARR	67 Neutral	$2.12B	8.90	17.81%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
PBF	54 Neutral	$3.88B	-23.14	-2.92%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CSAN	50 Neutral	$4.79B	-0.99	-96.96%	―	-7.39%	-621.47%
CVI	47 Neutral	$2.25B	80.38	3.77%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%
DK	45 Neutral	$2.08B	-4.19	-115.95%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%

Cosan Corporate Events

Cosan Advances Liability Management With Full Redemption of 2030 and 2031 Bonds

On February 2, 2026, Cosan S.A. announced another step in its liability management process initiated in 2025, aimed at reducing indebtedness, lowering financial costs and improving its capital structure. Through its wholly owned subsidiary Cosan Luxembourg S.A., the company is fully redeeming its senior notes due June 2030 and January 2031, with principal amounts of US$269.3 million and US$300 million respectively, contributing to total debt repayments of approximately R$6.2 billion to date and signaling a continued focus on balance sheet strengthening for shareholders and creditors.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan Restructures Cosan Dez Stake With R$4 Billion Investment From Bradesco BBI and BTG Pactual

On December 30, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced that Banco Bradesco BBI and Banco BTG Pactual jointly acquired, in equal proportions, preferred shares in Cosan Dez Participações S.A. for a total of R$4 billion, equivalent to roughly 23% of Cosan Dez’s equity and political rights corresponding to 9.98% of its voting capital. The transaction, which restructures and renegotiates a 2022 financing arrangement with Bradesco BBI, includes a staggered put option for the banks starting in the fifth year, allowing Cosan to lower the financial cost of its previous structure and further its post-capitalization strategy of liability optimization while preserving control over Compass Gás e Energia.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan Optimizes Liquidity With Rumo Share Sale Paired to Derivative Exposure

On December 22, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced that it had sold common shares representing approximately 4.96% of the total share capital of its logistics subsidiary Rumo S.A., while simultaneously entering into total return swap derivative instruments that provide equivalent economic exposure to the divested shares. The company said the move is part of its broader strategy to optimize liquidity and cash management without diminishing its political or economic rights in Rumo, noting that its overall interest in the subsidiary’s capital structure remains unchanged at 20.33% held directly and 9.94% via derivatives, a signal to investors that Cosan is fine-tuning its balance sheet while preserving strategic control over a core asset.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan S.A. Enhances Liquidity with Strategic Rumo Share Sale

On December 15, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the sale of approximately 4.98% of its subsidiary Rumo S.A.’s total share capital, alongside executing derivative instruments to maintain economic exposure. This strategic financial transaction aims to enhance liquidity and cash management without affecting Cosan’s political and economic rights in Rumo.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan Announces Executive and Board Restructuring Amid Strategic Realignment

On November 14, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced significant changes to its Executive Board and Board of Directors, effective from November 19, 2025, and December 5, 2025, respectively. Rodrigo Araujo Alves resigned as Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer, with Rafael Bergman set to assume the role. Additionally, several board members resigned, and new appointments were made, including André Santos Esteves as Vice Chairman. These changes also extend to Cosan’s subsidiaries and jointly controlled entities, indicating a strategic realignment within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan S.A. Announces New Shareholders’ Agreement Following Share Offering

On November 10, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the effectiveness of a new Shareholders’ Agreement involving its controlling shareholders and several investment funds, following the settlement of its first public offering of shares. This agreement, which includes the establishment of Vertiz Holding S.A. as a joint investment vehicle, is expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and enhance its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan S.A. Launches Second Public Offering of Common Shares

On November 3, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the launch of a primary offering of its common shares, directed at professional investors in Brazil and qualified institutional buyers in the United States, as well as institutional investors outside these regions. The offering, which includes an initial issuance of 187,500,000 shares at a fixed price of R$5.00 per share, may be increased by up to 53.33% to meet excess demand. The shares are expected to begin trading on the São Paulo Stock Exchange shortly after the allocation procedure is completed. This move is part of Cosan’s strategy to strengthen its market position and expand its capital base.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.