Cosan (CSAN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.69B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: -7.39%
• EPS Growth: -621.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53,498
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 991,642,760
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,908,719
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,648,448
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 16.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.93
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 25.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(0.25% Upside)

Cosan's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability, which are the most impactful factors. Technical indicators show some positive momentum, but valuation concerns with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield weigh heavily. The mixed results from the earnings call highlight both strategic successes and ongoing operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Diversified business model & strategic JV

Cosan's mix of sugar/ethanol production, a large fuel-distribution JV (Raízen) and logistics (Rumo, Compass, Moove) provides multiple durable cash-flow streams. This diversification reduces single-commodity exposure and supports resilience through agricultural and energy cycles over months to years.

Segment-level operational resilience and cash generation

Several subsidiaries showed operational strength: Rumo and Compass delivered EBITDA growth and Moove increased volumes, while BRL 500m insurance proceeds improved near-term cash. Consistent segment cash generation supports consolidated operating cash flow and aids deleveraging and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.

Successful capital raises and investor support

Oversubscribed equity offerings and the entry of infrastructure-focused investors materially strengthen Cosan's access to capital and governance depth. This durable improvement in shareholder base and capital flexibility supports liability optimization and long-term funding options, reducing refinancing risk.

Negative Factors

Very high leverage and negative returns

Extremely high leverage and a deeply negative ROE constrain strategic flexibility and heighten refinancing and solvency risk. With limited equity cushions, interest cost volatility or weaker cash flow could force asset sales or dilutive equity raises, impairing long-term value creation and investment capacity.

Declining revenue and sustained negative profitability

Persistent revenue contraction and large negative margins weaken internal cash generation and the firm's ability to self-fund capex or debt reduction. Over multiple quarters this trend undermines operational scalability and forces reliance on external financing or asset disposals to restore balance-sheet health.

Raízen structural risks and unresolved capital solution

Raízen is a core earnings contributor; unresolved capital-structure issues and commodity exposure (sugar-price weakness, drought and fires) create sustained earnings and financing uncertainty. Given Raízen's scale, these structural risks can materially affect consolidated EBITDA and access to affordable financing.

Cosan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cosan S.A., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the fuel distribution business in Brazil, Europe, Latin America, North America, Asia, and internationally. The company's Raízen segment distributes and markets fuels through a franchised network of service stations under the Shell brand; engages in the petroleum refining; operation of convenience stores; manufacture and sale of automotive and industrial lubricants; and production and sale of liquefied petroleum gas. This segment also markets various products derived from sugar cane, including raw sugar, and anhydrous and hydrated ethanol, as well as engages in activities related to energy cogeneration from sugarcane bagasse; sale of electricity; and holds interests in companies involved in research and development on new technology. The company's Gas and Power segment distributes piped natural gas to customers in the industrial, residential, commercial, automotive, and cogeneration sectors; and engages in purchase and sale of electricity to other traders. Its Moove segment produces and distributes lubricants under the Mobil and Comma brands. The company's Logistics segment provides logistics services for rail transportation, storage and port loading of commodities, including grains and sugar; and leases locomotives, wagons, and another railroad equipment. Its Cosan Investments segment manages agricultural, mining, and logistics projects; and invests in climate tech fund. Cosan S.A. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Cosan generates revenue through multiple key streams. The largest segment is its sugar and ethanol production, where it earns money from the sale of these commodities both domestically and internationally. The company operates several sugar mills and ethanol distilleries, leveraging Brazil's favorable climate for sugarcane cultivation. Additionally, Cosan's fuel distribution network, primarily through its subsidiary Raízen, which operates service stations and distributes fuels, also contributes significantly to its revenue. The logistics division, which provides integrated solutions for the transportation and storage of goods, particularly in agribusiness, adds another layer of income. Cosan's strategic partnerships, such as its joint venture with Shell in Raízen, further enhance its market presence and operational efficiency, leading to increased earnings.

Cosan Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cosan faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue, high leverage, and negative profitability. The income statement reflects a period of financial strain, while the balance sheet indicates high financial risk due to substantial debt levels. Cash flow constraints further exacerbate the situation, with declining free cash flow growth. The company needs to address these issues to improve financial stability and performance.

Income Statement

Cosan's income statement shows a challenging period with declining revenue and profitability. The TTM data indicates a negative revenue growth rate of -2.26% and a significant net loss, reflected in a net profit margin of -31.04%. While the gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 31.95%, the company faces pressure on its EBIT and EBITDA margins, which have decreased compared to previous years. The negative trends in revenue and profitability highlight potential risks in the company's operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 11.40, indicating significant financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -165.78%, reflecting the company's inability to generate positive returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 25.49%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing. Overall, the high debt levels and negative ROE present concerns about financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cosan's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -29.97% in the TTM period, indicating challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.90, suggesting that operating cash flows are not sufficient to cover the net loss. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.34, further highlighting cash flow constraints. Despite these challenges, the company maintains some ability to generate operating cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	42.57B	43.95B	39.47B	39.32B	26.09B	13.51B
Gross Profit	13.60B	13.71B	10.92B	8.77B	5.83B	3.69B
EBITDA	12.06B	13.22B	14.12B	11.14B	12.65B	1.39B
Net Income	-13.22B	-9.42B	1.09B	1.18B	6.31B	859.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	125.74B	141.27B	139.87B	134.48B	97.84B	83.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.10B	20.18B	18.27B	15.96B	21.04B	17.62B
Total Debt	60.91B	72.97B	62.18B	56.52B	48.93B	45.25B
Total Liabilities	93.69B	101.87B	88.88B	86.32B	68.97B	62.89B
Stockholders Equity	32.05B	10.90B	20.96B	20.65B	14.74B	5.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.65B	5.25B	4.01B	5.44B	372.35M	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	9.90B	13.08B	10.28B	9.97B	5.15B	2.14B
Investing Cash Flow	2.46B	-4.49B	-4.30B	-20.61B	-5.48B	-2.34B
Financing Cash Flow	-13.46B	-6.61B	-4.52B	8.17B	2.35B	-1.54B

Cosan Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSAN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.94, below the 50-day MA of 4.48, and below the 200-day MA of 4.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CSAN.

Cosan Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGP	80 Outperform	$4.52B	8.55	18.26%	8.03%	-3.51%	3.75%
PARR	67 Neutral	$1.94B	7.75	17.81%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CVI	56 Neutral	$2.44B	14.19	21.78%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%
CSAN	50 Neutral	$3.69B	-0.77	-96.96%	―	-7.39%	-621.47%
PBF	49 Neutral	$3.61B	-6.33	-9.47%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
DK	45 Neutral	$1.74B	-3.38	-115.95%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%

Cosan Corporate Events

Cosan Restructures Cosan Dez Stake With R$4 Billion Investment From Bradesco BBI and BTG Pactual

On December 30, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced that Banco Bradesco BBI and Banco BTG Pactual jointly acquired, in equal proportions, preferred shares in Cosan Dez Participações S.A. for a total of R$4 billion, equivalent to roughly 23% of Cosan Dez’s equity and political rights corresponding to 9.98% of its voting capital. The transaction, which restructures and renegotiates a 2022 financing arrangement with Bradesco BBI, includes a staggered put option for the banks starting in the fifth year, allowing Cosan to lower the financial cost of its previous structure and further its post-capitalization strategy of liability optimization while preserving control over Compass Gás e Energia.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan Optimizes Liquidity With Rumo Share Sale Paired to Derivative Exposure

On December 22, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced that it had sold common shares representing approximately 4.96% of the total share capital of its logistics subsidiary Rumo S.A., while simultaneously entering into total return swap derivative instruments that provide equivalent economic exposure to the divested shares. The company said the move is part of its broader strategy to optimize liquidity and cash management without diminishing its political or economic rights in Rumo, noting that its overall interest in the subsidiary’s capital structure remains unchanged at 20.33% held directly and 9.94% via derivatives, a signal to investors that Cosan is fine-tuning its balance sheet while preserving strategic control over a core asset.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan S.A. Enhances Liquidity with Strategic Rumo Share Sale

On December 15, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the sale of approximately 4.98% of its subsidiary Rumo S.A.’s total share capital, alongside executing derivative instruments to maintain economic exposure. This strategic financial transaction aims to enhance liquidity and cash management without affecting Cosan’s political and economic rights in Rumo.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan Announces Executive and Board Restructuring Amid Strategic Realignment

On November 14, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced significant changes to its Executive Board and Board of Directors, effective from November 19, 2025, and December 5, 2025, respectively. Rodrigo Araujo Alves resigned as Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer, with Rafael Bergman set to assume the role. Additionally, several board members resigned, and new appointments were made, including André Santos Esteves as Vice Chairman. These changes also extend to Cosan’s subsidiaries and jointly controlled entities, indicating a strategic realignment within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan S.A. Announces New Shareholders’ Agreement Following Share Offering

On November 10, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the effectiveness of a new Shareholders’ Agreement involving its controlling shareholders and several investment funds, following the settlement of its first public offering of shares. This agreement, which includes the establishment of Vertiz Holding S.A. as a joint investment vehicle, is expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and enhance its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan S.A. Launches Second Public Offering of Common Shares

On November 3, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the launch of a primary offering of its common shares, directed at professional investors in Brazil and qualified institutional buyers in the United States, as well as institutional investors outside these regions. The offering, which includes an initial issuance of 187,500,000 shares at a fixed price of R$5.00 per share, may be increased by up to 53.33% to meet excess demand. The shares are expected to begin trading on the São Paulo Stock Exchange shortly after the allocation procedure is completed. This move is part of Cosan’s strategy to strengthen its market position and expand its capital base.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan’s Share Subscription Approved by CADE

On October 30, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced that the Brazilian antitrust authority, CADE, has approved without restrictions the subscription of shares by several investment funds. This approval is part of a broader investment agreement, contingent upon the completion of an ongoing public offering, expected to conclude its Bookbuilding Procedure by November 3, 2025. This development is anticipated to enhance Cosan’s financial capabilities and market positioning, potentially impacting its stakeholders positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan S.A. Reports Financial Metrics for Mid-2025

Cosan S.A. has released a financial update for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025, highlighting key non-GAAP financial measures such as EBITDA, Net Debt, and Adjusted Working Capital. The company’s EBITDA for this period was 4,811.8 million reais, indicating its operational cash generation capabilities. Despite a slight decrease in EBITDA compared to the previous period, Cosan’s financial metrics provide insights into its capital structure and liquidity position, which are vital for stakeholders assessing the company’s financial health and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.

Cosan S.A. Launches Major Share Offering to Strengthen Market Position

On October 23, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the launch of a primary offering of its common shares, aimed at investors in Brazil, the United States, and other international markets. The offering initially includes 1,450,000,000 shares, with the potential to increase by 25% to meet excess demand. Anchor investors, including entities affiliated with BTG Pactual and Perfin Infra Administração de Recursos, have committed to purchasing shares worth R$7,250.0 million, contingent on a share price of R$5.00. The pricing is expected on November 3, 2025, with trading on the São Paulo Stock Exchange commencing shortly thereafter. This strategic move is anticipated to bolster Cosan’s market presence and financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSAN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cosan stock, see the CSAN Stock Forecast page.