Cosan (CSAN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: -5.62%
• EPS Growth: -486.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53,498
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 464,661,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,316,461
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,042,581
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.33
• 1Y Price Target: $4.70
• Price Target Upside: 6.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(13.12% Upside)

Cosan's overall stock score reflects solid revenue growth and cash flow generation, but is tempered by high leverage and profitability challenges. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation concerns arise from a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call highlighted both growth in certain segments and ongoing challenges, contributing to a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Diversified Business Model

Cosan's diversified operations across multiple sectors provide resilience against market volatility, ensuring stable revenue streams and long-term growth potential.

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation enhances Cosan's ability to invest in growth opportunities, manage debt, and improve financial stability over the long term.

Strategic Capital Restructuring

The capital restructuring initiative aims to reduce financial leverage, improving financial flexibility and corporate governance, which is crucial for long-term sustainability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting Cosan's ability to invest in growth and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability challenges, as indicated by negative net income, may hinder Cosan's capacity to reinvest in its operations and affect long-term growth prospects.

Operational Setbacks

Operational setbacks, such as the fire impacting Moove, can disrupt business continuity and require significant resources for recovery, affecting long-term operational efficiency.

Cosan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cosan S.A., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the fuel distribution business in Brazil, Europe, Latin America, North America, Asia, and internationally. The company's Raízen segment distributes and markets fuels through a franchised network of service stations under the Shell brand; engages in the petroleum refining; operation of convenience stores; manufacture and sale of automotive and industrial lubricants; and production and sale of liquefied petroleum gas. This segment also markets various products derived from sugar cane, including raw sugar, and anhydrous and hydrated ethanol, as well as engages in activities related to energy cogeneration from sugarcane bagasse; sale of electricity; and holds interests in companies involved in research and development on new technology. The company's Gas and Power segment distributes piped natural gas to customers in the industrial, residential, commercial, automotive, and cogeneration sectors; and engages in purchase and sale of electricity to other traders. Its Moove segment produces and distributes lubricants under the Mobil and Comma brands. The company's Logistics segment provides logistics services for rail transportation, storage and port loading of commodities, including grains and sugar; and leases locomotives, wagons, and another railroad equipment. Its Cosan Investments segment manages agricultural, mining, and logistics projects; and invests in climate tech fund. Cosan S.A. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Cosan generates revenue through several key streams. The most significant is its joint venture Raízen, which produces and sells sugar, ethanol, and energy generated from sugarcane. This division benefits from the growing demand for renewable energy and biofuels. Additionally, Cosan Logística earns revenue through its transportation and storage services for commodities, primarily servicing the agricultural sector. The company also generates income from the distribution of fuels via its network of service stations and lubricants. Strategic partnerships, such as that with Shell in the Raízen joint venture, enhance its market position and expand its operational capabilities, contributing to its overall profitability.

Cosan Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cosan's financial performance shows solid revenue growth and cash flow generation but struggles with profitability due to high leverage and net losses. The significant debt levels pose risks if not managed effectively. Improvements in net income and equity position are crucial for future stability.

Income Statement

Cosan's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin for the latest year was approximately 31.2%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin was negative due to a significant net loss. Revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was about 11.36%, showing positive growth momentum. Despite a solid EBIT margin of 21.14%, the company faces profitability challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 6.69, indicating heavy reliance on debt financing, which can be risky. The equity ratio stands at 7.72%, suggesting a low proportion of assets financed by equity. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, highlighting the need for improved profitability. Despite this, the company maintains substantial cash reserves.

Cash Flow

Cosan's cash flow statement shows strong operating cash flow relative to net income, reflecting effective cash management. Free cash flow grew by 30.9% from the previous year, suggesting an improving cash position. While the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive due to cash generation, the net income loss tempers the overall cash flow assessment.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	43.55B	43.95B	39.47B	39.74B	24.91B	13.51B
Gross Profit	13.71B	13.71B	10.92B	8.98B	6.34B	3.69B
EBITDA	12.25B	13.22B	14.12B	6.87B	4.53B	1.39B
Net Income	-11.74B	-9.42B	1.09B	2.82B	6.31B	859.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	126.04B	141.27B	139.87B	134.48B	97.84B	83.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.51B	20.18B	18.27B	15.96B	21.04B	17.62B
Total Debt	66.78B	72.97B	62.18B	56.52B	48.93B	45.25B
Total Liabilities	92.93B	101.87B	88.88B	86.32B	68.97B	62.89B
Stockholders Equity	7.19B	10.90B	20.96B	20.65B	14.74B	5.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.79B	5.25B	4.01B	5.44B	1.16B	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	12.63B	13.08B	10.28B	9.97B	5.22B	2.14B
Investing Cash Flow	311.06M	-4.49B	-4.30B	-20.61B	5.01B	-2.34B
Financing Cash Flow	-16.49B	-6.61B	-4.52B	8.17B	1.05B	-1.54B

Cosan Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 4.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSAN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.42, below the 50-day MA of 4.63, and below the 200-day MA of 5.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CSAN.

Cosan Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGP	71 Outperform	$4.17B	8.12	18.65%	3.57%	-6.18%	-9.87%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CSAN	58 Neutral	$2.08B	―	-83.87%	―	-5.62%	-486.38%
CVI	56 Neutral	$3.49B	―	-50.65%	7.61%	-15.98%	-160.88%
PARR	52 Neutral	$1.79B	―	-1.59%	―	-13.09%	-103.24%
DK	50 Neutral	$2.03B	―	-200.75%	2.87%	-29.94%	-723.41%
PBF	50 Neutral	$3.25B	―	-17.30%	3.73%	-18.73%	-236.79%

Cosan Corporate Events

Cosan Announces Strategic Share Offerings to Restructure Capital

On September 19, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced a strategic transaction involving two primary public offerings of shares, aimed at restructuring its capital and reducing financial leverage. The first offering will issue 1.45 billion shares, with a potential 25% increase, and is backed by anchor investors including BTG Pactual and Perfin Infra. The second offering will issue up to 550 million shares with priority rights for existing shareholders. The funds raised will be used to renegotiate and repay financial debts, enhancing financial flexibility and corporate governance. The transaction is subject to corporate approvals and conditions, with a shareholders’ agreement to be signed at the settlement of the first offering.

Cosan Seeks New Investors for Rafzen Joint Venture

On September 4, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced that it is actively seeking new investors for its joint venture with Shell, Rafzen, as part of its ongoing efforts to enhance its capital structure. The company has been approached by various interested parties, but no binding commitments have been made yet. Cosan assures its stakeholders that it will keep them informed of any significant developments in accordance with legal requirements.

Cosan S.A. Financial Statements Reviewed with No Significant Issues

Cosan S.A. announced the review of its interim financial statements for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025. The review, conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers, concluded that the financial statements were prepared in accordance with relevant accounting standards without any significant issues. This review provides stakeholders with confidence in the company’s financial reporting and operational transparency.

Cosan S.A. Submits SEC Compliance Report for August 2025

On August 14, 2025, Cosan S.A., a company based in São Paulo, Brazil, submitted a report to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of its compliance with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The report was signed by Rodrigo Araujo Alves, the Chief Financial Officer of Cosan S.A., highlighting the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements.