Cosan (CSAN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.77B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: -7.39%
• EPS Growth: -621.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53,498
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 991,642,760
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,261,817
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,388,440
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.38
• 1Y Price Target: $4.40
• Price Target Upside: -11.47% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $29.25B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(0.60% Upside)

Cosan's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability, which are the most impactful factors. Technical indicators show some positive momentum, but valuation concerns with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield weigh heavily. The mixed results from the earnings call highlight both strategic successes and ongoing operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Strategic Shareholder Engagement

The successful equity offerings and new strategic shareholders enhance Cosan's capital structure, supporting long-term growth and stability.

Operational Performance in Key Segments

Growth in key segments like Rumo and Compass indicates strong operational performance, contributing positively to Cosan's long-term prospects.

Executive and Board Restructuring

The restructuring of the executive and board positions aligns with strategic realignment, potentially improving governance and strategic execution.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses significant financial risk, potentially limiting Cosan's ability to invest in growth opportunities and affecting financial stability.

Decline in EBITDA and Net Income

Declining EBITDA and negative net income reflect operational challenges, impacting profitability and potentially hindering future investment capacity.

Challenges at Raizen

Raizen's challenges with sugar prices and volumes affect Cosan's revenue and necessitate strategic adjustments to mitigate long-term impacts.

Cosan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cosan S.A. is a Brazilian multinational company engaged in the production and distribution of a diverse range of products and services, primarily in the energy and logistics sectors. It operates through various subsidiaries, with key segments including sugar and ethanol production, fuel distribution, and logistics services. The company is one of the largest producers of sugar and ethanol in Brazil and has a significant presence in the logistics space, providing transportation and storage solutions for agribusiness and other sectors.

How the Company Makes Money

Cosan generates revenue through multiple key streams. The largest segment is its sugar and ethanol production, where it earns money from the sale of these commodities both domestically and internationally. The company operates several sugar mills and ethanol distilleries, leveraging Brazil's favorable climate for sugarcane cultivation. Additionally, Cosan's fuel distribution network, primarily through its subsidiary Raízen, which operates service stations and distributes fuels, also contributes significantly to its revenue. The logistics division, which provides integrated solutions for the transportation and storage of goods, particularly in agribusiness, adds another layer of income. Cosan's strategic partnerships, such as its joint venture with Shell in Raízen, further enhance its market presence and operational efficiency, leading to increased earnings.

Cosan Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cosan's financial performance is challenged by declining revenue growth and high leverage. Despite operational efficiency indicated by moderate EBIT and EBITDA margins, the company faces substantial net losses and a high debt-to-equity ratio, posing significant financial risks.

Income Statement

Cosan's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a declining revenue growth rate of -2.26% in the TTM, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 31.48%, but the net profit margin is negative at -26.95%, reflecting significant losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 17.53% and 31.00%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency but overshadowed by high net losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 9.29 in the TTM, indicating substantial leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -102.27%, reflecting poor profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the high leverage suggests limited equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cosan's cash flow statement shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 19.68% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.86, suggesting strong cash flow relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.30, indicating that free cash flow is not fully covering net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	42.57B	43.95B	39.47B	39.32B	26.09B	13.51B
Gross Profit	13.60B	13.71B	10.92B	8.77B	5.83B	3.69B
EBITDA	12.06B	13.22B	14.12B	11.14B	12.65B	1.39B
Net Income	-13.22B	-9.42B	1.09B	1.18B	6.31B	859.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	125.74B	141.27B	139.87B	134.48B	97.84B	83.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.10B	20.18B	18.27B	15.96B	21.04B	17.62B
Total Debt	60.91B	72.97B	62.18B	56.52B	48.93B	45.25B
Total Liabilities	93.69B	101.87B	88.88B	86.32B	68.97B	62.89B
Stockholders Equity	32.05B	10.90B	20.96B	20.65B	14.74B	5.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.65B	5.25B	4.01B	5.44B	372.35M	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	9.90B	13.08B	10.28B	9.97B	5.15B	2.14B
Investing Cash Flow	2.46B	-4.49B	-4.30B	-20.61B	-5.48B	-2.34B
Financing Cash Flow	-13.46B	-6.61B	-4.52B	8.17B	2.35B	-1.54B

Cosan Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSAN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.93, above the 50-day MA of 4.64, and above the 200-day MA of 4.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSAN.

Cosan Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGP	80 Outperform	$4.59B	8.62	18.26%	3.16%	-3.51%	3.75%
PARR	73 Outperform	$2.32B	9.39	17.81%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CVI	65 Neutral	$3.42B	20.75	21.78%	8.10%	-7.21%	135.72%
PBF	55 Neutral	$4.00B	―	-9.47%	3.30%	-15.35%	-81.94%
DK	51 Neutral	$2.33B	―	-115.95%	2.68%	-22.37%	-27.22%
CSAN	50 Neutral	$4.77B	―	-96.96%	―	-7.39%	-621.47%

Cosan Corporate Events

Cosan Announces Executive and Board Restructuring Amid Strategic Realignment

On November 14, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced significant changes to its Executive Board and Board of Directors, effective from November 19, 2025, and December 5, 2025, respectively. Rodrigo Araujo Alves resigned as Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer, with Rafael Bergman set to assume the role. Additionally, several board members resigned, and new appointments were made, including André Santos Esteves as Vice Chairman. These changes also extend to Cosan’s subsidiaries and jointly controlled entities, indicating a strategic realignment within the company.

Cosan S.A. Announces New Shareholders’ Agreement Following Share Offering

On November 10, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the effectiveness of a new Shareholders’ Agreement involving its controlling shareholders and several investment funds, following the settlement of its first public offering of shares. This agreement, which includes the establishment of Vertiz Holding S.A. as a joint investment vehicle, is expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and enhance its market positioning.

Cosan S.A. Launches Second Public Offering of Common Shares

On November 3, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the launch of a primary offering of its common shares, directed at professional investors in Brazil and qualified institutional buyers in the United States, as well as institutional investors outside these regions. The offering, which includes an initial issuance of 187,500,000 shares at a fixed price of R$5.00 per share, may be increased by up to 53.33% to meet excess demand. The shares are expected to begin trading on the São Paulo Stock Exchange shortly after the allocation procedure is completed. This move is part of Cosan’s strategy to strengthen its market position and expand its capital base.

Cosan’s Share Subscription Approved by CADE

On October 30, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced that the Brazilian antitrust authority, CADE, has approved without restrictions the subscription of shares by several investment funds. This approval is part of a broader investment agreement, contingent upon the completion of an ongoing public offering, expected to conclude its Bookbuilding Procedure by November 3, 2025. This development is anticipated to enhance Cosan’s financial capabilities and market positioning, potentially impacting its stakeholders positively.

Cosan S.A. Reports Financial Metrics for Mid-2025

Cosan S.A. has released a financial update for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025, highlighting key non-GAAP financial measures such as EBITDA, Net Debt, and Adjusted Working Capital. The company’s EBITDA for this period was 4,811.8 million reais, indicating its operational cash generation capabilities. Despite a slight decrease in EBITDA compared to the previous period, Cosan’s financial metrics provide insights into its capital structure and liquidity position, which are vital for stakeholders assessing the company’s financial health and operational efficiency.

Cosan S.A. Launches Major Share Offering to Strengthen Market Position

On October 23, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced the launch of a primary offering of its common shares, aimed at investors in Brazil, the United States, and other international markets. The offering initially includes 1,450,000,000 shares, with the potential to increase by 25% to meet excess demand. Anchor investors, including entities affiliated with BTG Pactual and Perfin Infra Administração de Recursos, have committed to purchasing shares worth R$7,250.0 million, contingent on a share price of R$5.00. The pricing is expected on November 3, 2025, with trading on the São Paulo Stock Exchange commencing shortly thereafter. This strategic move is anticipated to bolster Cosan’s market presence and financial position.

Cosan Announces Strategic Share Offerings to Restructure Capital

On September 19, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced a strategic transaction involving two primary public offerings of shares, aimed at restructuring its capital and reducing financial leverage. The first offering will issue 1.45 billion shares, with a potential 25% increase, and is backed by anchor investors including BTG Pactual and Perfin Infra. The second offering will issue up to 550 million shares with priority rights for existing shareholders. The funds raised will be used to renegotiate and repay financial debts, enhancing financial flexibility and corporate governance. The transaction is subject to corporate approvals and conditions, with a shareholders’ agreement to be signed at the settlement of the first offering.

Cosan Seeks New Investors for Rafzen Joint Venture

On September 4, 2025, Cosan S.A. announced that it is actively seeking new investors for its joint venture with Shell, Rafzen, as part of its ongoing efforts to enhance its capital structure. The company has been approached by various interested parties, but no binding commitments have been made yet. Cosan assures its stakeholders that it will keep them informed of any significant developments in accordance with legal requirements.