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Par Pacific Holdings
(NYSE:PARR)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$78.00
▲(0.79% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by improved recent financial performance (strong profitability and solid balance-sheet position), supported by a low P/E valuation. These positives are tempered by mixed cash conversion and cyclicality, plus near-term execution risk highlighted on the earnings call (Q3 Hawaii turnaround impacts and working-capital swings). Technicals also suggest the stock is coming off an overbought phase, limiting the technical score.
Positive Factors
Strong Refining Margins & Capture
Sustained high refining capture and a large quarterly refining EBITDA indicate the company can extract material margin from regional supply/demand imbalances. Durable margin strength supports reinvestment, debt paydown and elevated ROE across cycles when operations remain reliable.
Negative Factors
Mixed Cash Conversion & Cyclicality
Earnings have recently rebounded but cash conversion remains uneven, with FCF materially below net income and prior periods showing negative FCF. This cyclicality and working-capital sensitivity can limit sustainable capital return, increase refinancing vulnerability, and constrain investment during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Refining Margins & Capture
Sustained high refining capture and a large quarterly refining EBITDA indicate the company can extract material margin from regional supply/demand imbalances. Durable margin strength supports reinvestment, debt paydown and elevated ROE across cycles when operations remain reliable.
Read all positive factors
Par Pacific Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Breaks down operating profit by business unit to highlight which segments deliver strong margins and which weigh on consolidated earnings. Reveals sensitivity to refining margins, retail margins and operational efficiency across Par Pacific’s businesses, important for judging profitability resilience.
Breaks down operating profit by business unit to highlight which segments deliver strong margins and which weigh on consolidated earnings. Reveals sensitivity to refining margins, retail margins and operational efficiency across Par Pacific’s businesses, important for judging profitability resilience.
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The Fly
The FlyPar Pacific Holdings (PARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)920.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.8
Beta (1Y)0.02
Revenue Growth13.19%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,758
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.47
Shares Outstanding50,099,630
10 Day Avg. Volume952,038
30 Day Avg. Volume920,909
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.24
P/FCF Ratio6.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$83.67Price Target Upside8.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)17.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.17B
Par Pacific Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an integrated energy and infrastructure company, managing diverse operations across three key divisions: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. Its Refining segment oversees three facilities that produce a variety of refine...
How the Company Makes Money
Par Pacific primarily makes money by purchasing crude oil and other feedstocks, refining them into higher-value petroleum products, and selling those products into wholesale and retail markets.
1) Refining (core earnings driver): The company earn...
Par Pacific Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive near-term financial and operational performance driven by exceptional refining margins and disciplined execution: substantial adjusted EBITDA ($571M), strong cash flow, record regional throughput and safe, on-time outages, improved liquidity (~$1.4B) and meaningful debt reduction (> $220M). Offsetting items include a concentrated Hawaii turnaround that will depress Q3 capture and require inventory builds (causing $312M working capital outflows), softer logistics and small retail fuel volume declines, regional outage-driven higher per-barrel costs (notably Wyoming), and the likely exhaustion of NOLs leading to higher taxes in 2027. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights given the sizable earnings, balance sheet improvement, and operating execution demonstrated in the quarter.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Financial Results
Second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $571 million and adjusted net income of $499 million ($10.10 per share), demonstrating material profitability in Q2 2026.
Negative Updates
Hawaii Turnaround Concentrated Impact on Q3 Capture
Hawaii turnaround (late June) reduced production vs plan and will concentrate financial impacts in Q3: increased refined product imports, lower capture expected (below typical normalized guidance), and higher landed crude costs. Q3 Hawaii crude differential expected between $11.50 and $13.50 per barrel.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Financial Results
Second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $571 million and adjusted net income of $499 million ($10.10 per share), demonstrating material profitability in Q2 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for Q3 called for consolidated midpoint system throughput of about 182,000 bpd with Hawaii conventional throughput 59,000–65,000 bpd and renewable throughput 1,500–2,000 bpd (after June renewable throughput had ramped to ~3,000 bpd pre-turnaround); Mainland guidance: Washington 40,000–42,000 bpd, Wyoming 17,000–20,000 bpd and Montana 56,000–61,000 bpd (Montana coker down in July, expected back by mid‑August). July’s consolidated refining index was $31.34/bbl (≈$1.60 below Q2 average) and the company expects Q3 Hawaii landed crude differentials of $11.50–$13.50/bbl; the Hawaii turnaround will concentrate financial impacts in Q3, likely holding margin capture below the company’s typical 100%–110% guidance range as imported barrels are costed in Q3. Management also noted roughly $6–8 million of incremental OpEx and a heavier asphalt mix from Montana maintenance, a gradual restart and third‑party sales ramp in Renewables, no significant planned downtime for the remainder of the year, and that a substantial portion of Q2 working‑capital outflows should reverse as inventories normalize.Par Pacific Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.62B | 7.46B | 7.97B | 8.23B | 7.32B | 4.71B |
| Gross Profit | 1.95B | 1.35B | 741.72M | 1.27B | 846.00M | 277.37M |
| EBITDA | 1.33B | 704.58M | 175.37M | 805.59M | 532.96M | 80.46M |
| Net Income | 856.91M | 369.39M | -33.32M | 728.64M | 364.19M | -81.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.83B | 4.07B | 3.83B | 3.86B | 3.28B | 2.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 164.11M | 164.11M | 191.92M | 279.11M | 490.93M | 112.22M |
| Total Debt | 1.21B | 1.23B | 1.57B | 1.02B | 870.63M | 960.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.28B | 2.52B | 2.64B | 2.53B | 2.64B | 2.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.51B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 644.54M | 265.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 229.54M | 296.46M | -51.76M | 496.88M | 399.58M | -57.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 415.20M | 445.34M | 83.78M | 579.16M | 452.61M | -27.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -181.85M | -142.78M | -133.99M | -659.04M | -87.31M | 74.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -202.49M | -330.36M | -36.96M | -135.60M | 13.41M | -1.09M |
Par Pacific Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
77.39
Price Trends
64.83
Positive
63.38
Positive
52.27
Positive
Market Momentum
2.42
Positive
39.50
Neutral
6.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PARR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 77.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.20, above the 50-day MA of 64.83, and above the 200-day MA of 52.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PARR.
Par Pacific Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $14.47B | 7.73 | 19.86% | 2.27% | 16.26% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $7.31B | 5.37 | 24.08% | 1.78% | 13.54% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $3.32B | 3.79 | 57.75% | ― | 13.19% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $14.45B | 13.76 | 23.59% | 4.99% | 37.27% | -29.09% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | $3.58B | 16.02 | 95.27% | 1.61% | 11.40% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $3.13B | 45.14 | 10.48% | 1.41% | 17.88% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
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Par Pacific Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Par Pacific Reshapes Capital Structure With New Debt Financing
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Par Petroleum, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Par Pacific Holdings, completed a private placement of $500 million in 7.375% senior unsecured notes due 2034 and entered into an amended and restated asset-based revolving credit f...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Par Pacific Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Par Pacific Holdings announced that its subsidiary Par Petroleum intends to privately offer $500 million of senior unsecured notes due 2034, with the notes expected to be guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by Par Pacific and c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.