Par Pacific Holdings (PARR)
NYSE:PARR
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Par Pacific Holdings
(NYSE:PARR)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$70.00
▲(12.54% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is driven primarily by improved 2025 financial recovery (profitability and free cash flow) and strong technical momentum (price well above key moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is supportive due to the very low P/E, while the earnings call adds a constructive outlook from stronger liquidity and execution, tempered by weaker near-term refining margins and operational cost/outage risks.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and a meaningful free cash flow turnaround provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex, deleveraging, and strategic investments. Over 2–6 months this supports liquidity, buybacks, and resilience through refining cycles without reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Top-line decline
Two consecutive years of declining revenue, including a ~25% drop in 2025, signal structural top-line pressure. Persistent revenue erosion reduces operating leverage, pressures per-unit margins, and limits scale benefits, making sustained margin recovery and cash conversion harder over the medium term.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and a meaningful free cash flow turnaround provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex, deleveraging, and strategic investments. Over 2–6 months this supports liquidity, buybacks, and resilience through refining cycles without reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.8
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth-10.11%
EPS Growth-7.00%
CountryUS
Employees1,787
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding49,470,764
10 Day Avg. Volume1,290,726
30 Day Avg. Volume1,585,681
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.24
P/FCF Ratio6.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$67.00Price Target Upside7.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)9.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.61B
Par Pacific Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates three refineries that produces ultra-low sulfur...
How the Company Makes Money
Par Pacific primarily makes money by producing, distributing, and selling refined petroleum products (e.g., gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and related services across its integrated system.
1) Refining (manufacturing margin): The company buys crude ...
Par Pacific Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Par Pacific Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone: the company delivered record throughput in the year, achieved record segment results in Logistics and Retail, materially strengthened liquidity and reduced debt and share count, progressed the Hawaii renewables project into commissioning, and posted full-year adjusted EBITDA growth of ~13%. Offsetting these positives were localized operational setbacks (Wyoming heater event, Montana coker maintenance), elevated production costs at some sites, and a softer near-term refining margin environment (notably a lower combined refining index heading into Q1). Overall, the positive operational achievements, stronger balance sheet, and record segment results meaningfully outweigh the contained operational and market-related challenges.Positive Updates
Record Annual Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $634,000,000 (approximately +13% vs 2024) and full-year adjusted net income of $390,000,000, or $7.56 per share, demonstrating strong year-over-year profitability and structural improvements.
Negative Updates
Wyoming Crude Heater Event and Elevated Costs
Q1 Wyoming crude heater outage and a third-party regional power outage depressed throughput and raised costs. Q4 Wyoming throughput was 14,000 bpd with production costs of $13.27 per barrel; margin capture ~70% (normalized). Diesel sales reduction and maintenance impacted margins by ~$4,000,000 and operating costs by ~$3,000,000.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $634,000,000 (approximately +13% vs 2024) and full-year adjusted net income of $390,000,000, or $7.56 per share, demonstrating strong year-over-year profitability and structural improvements.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided clear near-term operating and financial guidance, expecting first-quarter throughput of 85–89k bpd in Hawaii, 24–28k bpd in Washington (planned outage), 13–16k bpd in Wyoming and 52–56k bpd in Montana for a system-wide midpoint of about 182,000 bpd; a combined refining index averaging roughly $6.70/bbl quarter-to-date (with February month-to-date about $2/bbl better than January) and prompt distillate margins ~ $15/bbl stronger than January; a Hawaii first-quarter crude differential of $4.75–$5.25/bbl; ongoing priorities to boost Rocky Mountain mid‑cycle earnings, execute the Hawaii turnaround, start up and optimize the renewables unit, and maintain disciplined capital allocation; and a strong balance-sheet position to support that plan with $915M liquidity, ~ $640M gross term debt, a 50 bps term‑loan repricing saving >$3M/year in cash interest, a $246M FY accrued CapEx, and the financial flexibility shown by repurchasing 6.5M shares (10% of outstanding) while reducing gross debt by $310M.Par Pacific Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.46B | 7.97B | 8.23B | 7.32B | 4.71B |
| Gross Profit | 1.35B | 741.72M | 1.27B | 846.00M | 277.37M |
| EBITDA | 704.58M | 175.37M | 805.59M | 532.96M | 80.46M |
| Net Income | 369.39M | -33.32M | 728.64M | 364.19M | -81.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.07B | 3.83B | 3.86B | 3.28B | 2.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 164.11M | 191.92M | 279.11M | 490.93M | 112.22M |
| Total Debt | 1.39B | 1.57B | 1.02B | 870.63M | 960.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.52B | 2.64B | 2.53B | 2.64B | 2.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 644.54M | 265.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 296.46M | -51.76M | 496.88M | 399.58M | -57.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 445.34M | 83.78M | 579.16M | 452.61M | -27.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -142.78M | -133.99M | -659.04M | -87.31M | 74.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -330.36M | -36.96M | -135.60M | 13.41M | -1.09M |
Par Pacific Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
62.20
Price Trends
51.78
Positive
45.51
Positive
40.07
Positive
Market Momentum
3.26
Positive
56.64
Neutral
67.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.06, above the 50-day MA of 51.78, and above the 200-day MA of 40.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PARR.
Par Pacific Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.08B | 4.84 | 28.59% | ― | -10.11% | -7.00% | |
68 Neutral | $12.96B | 13.57 | 7.27% | 6.88% | -5.18% | -33.14% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $10.51B | 14.84 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
60 Neutral | $2.45B | 5.68 | -14.06% | 3.42% | -22.37% | -27.22% | |
57 Neutral | $4.76B | -19.51 | -3.05% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
47 Neutral | $3.18B | 94.69 | 4.13% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
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372.29%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.