Par Pacific Holdings (PARR)
NYSE:PARR
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Par Pacific Holdings
(NYSE:PARR)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(11.63% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is led by materially improved profitability and a healthier leverage profile, supported by constructive earnings-call signals on stronger April margins, liquidity, and capital returns. It is held back by weaker cash conversion and volatile free cash flow trends, plus mixed/soft near-term technicals with the stock below key short-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Margin and Profitability Recovery
Sustained margin expansion to mid-single-digit net and high single-digit EBIT reflects improved unit economics and product mix. Durable higher margins support reinvestment, restore buffer versus commodity swings, and underpin stronger return on equity and steady operating cash flow potential.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion and volatile FCF
Low cash conversion and a sharp TTM FCF decline signal persistent working‑capital sensitivity and uneven cash realization. Over the medium term this limits reliable internal funding for capex, debt paydown or buybacks and raises vulnerability to inventory and price volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin and Profitability Recovery
Sustained margin expansion to mid-single-digit net and high single-digit EBIT reflects improved unit economics and product mix. Durable higher margins support reinvestment, restore buffer versus commodity swings, and underpin stronger return on equity and steady operating cash flow potential.
Read all positive factors
Par Pacific Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Breaks down operating profit by business unit to highlight which segments deliver strong margins and which weigh on consolidated earnings. Reveals sensitivity to refining margins, retail margins and operational efficiency across Par Pacific’s businesses, important for judging profitability resilience.
Breaks down operating profit by business unit to highlight which segments deliver strong margins and which weigh on consolidated earnings. Reveals sensitivity to refining margins, retail margins and operational efficiency across Par Pacific’s businesses, important for judging profitability resilience.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPar Pacific Holdings (PARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.83B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.0
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth-2.52%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,787
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.12
Shares Outstanding50,144,276
10 Day Avg. Volume1,203,247
30 Day Avg. Volume1,346,564
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.24
P/FCF Ratio6.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.29Price Target Upside29.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)11.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.97B
Par Pacific Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates three refineries that produces ultra-low sulfur...
How the Company Makes Money
Par Pacific primarily makes money by producing, distributing, and selling refined petroleum products (e.g., gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and related services across its integrated system.
1) Refining (manufacturing margin): The company buys crude ...
Par Pacific Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced near-term headwinds with stronger underlying fundamentals: operational execution was highlighted by record throughput, successful renewable unit start-up and strong April market crack strength that improved the outlook for margins and cash flow. Offsetting these positives were a material Hawaii price-lag headwind (~$125 million), sequential declines in refining and retail EBITDA, working capital outflows tied to inventory builds, and an upcoming Hawaii turnaround that will shift some impact into Q3. The company retains strong liquidity, low leverage and an opportunistic buyback framework, positioning it to capture the improving margin environment.Positive Updates
Solid Q1 Financials
First quarter adjusted EBITDA of $91 million and adjusted net income of $39 million, or $0.78 per share.
Negative Updates
Large Hawaii Price-Lag Headwind
Hawaii experienced a net price-lag headwind of approximately $125 million in Q1. Reported Hawaii capture was 42% including lag; normalized for the lag, Hawaii capture was ~92%.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Q1 Financials
First quarter adjusted EBITDA of $91 million and adjusted net income of $39 million, or $0.78 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: Par expects Q2 system throughput around a 182,000 bpd midpoint with Hawaii 77–81k bpd (record Q1 Hawaii was 90k; a planned turnaround starts late June for ~30–45 days and will take the renewables unit offline), Washington 40–42k bpd, Wyoming 14–16k bpd and Montana 45–49k bpd; April consolidated refining index averaged $42/boe (up $23 vs Q1) and management expects a Hawaii crude differential of $4–$5/bbl, noting a front‑to‑third‑month crude spread of $6–$8/bbl; renewables volumes and earnings are expected to be modest in Q2 with a more meaningful ramp in the back half of the year, the Hawaii turnaround’s financial impact should be limited in Q2 and shifted into Q3, and the company has no crack‑spread hedges so it is positioned to capture the stronger margin environment while generating robust cash flow to support liquidity ($938M at quarter end), further debt reduction (gross term debt $638M), accretive growth and opportunistic share repurchases (Q1 repurchases $28M at $38/sh; >14M shares repurchased to date, ~20% outstanding).Par Pacific Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.54B | 7.46B | 7.97B | 8.23B | 7.32B | 4.71B |
| Gross Profit | 1.37B | 1.35B | 741.72M | 1.27B | 846.00M | 277.37M |
| EBITDA | 853.43M | 704.58M | 175.37M | 805.59M | 532.96M | 80.46M |
| Net Income | 454.24M | 369.39M | -33.32M | 728.64M | 364.19M | -81.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.21B | 4.07B | 3.83B | 3.86B | 3.28B | 2.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 172.52M | 164.11M | 191.92M | 279.11M | 490.93M | 112.22M |
| Total Debt | 1.64B | 1.39B | 1.57B | 1.02B | 870.63M | 960.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.66B | 2.52B | 2.64B | 2.53B | 2.64B | 2.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.52B | 1.51B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 644.54M | 265.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 155.91M | 296.46M | -51.76M | 496.88M | 399.58M | -57.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 306.92M | 445.34M | 83.78M | 579.16M | 452.61M | -27.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -144.93M | -142.78M | -133.99M | -659.04M | -87.31M | 74.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -123.56M | -330.36M | -36.96M | -135.60M | 13.41M | -1.09M |
Par Pacific Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
57.33
Price Trends
61.99
Negative
51.83
Positive
44.68
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.36
Positive
40.49
Neutral
12.18
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PARR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 57.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.51, below the 50-day MA of 61.99, and above the 200-day MA of 44.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.18 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PARR.
Par Pacific Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.27B | 10.02 | 13.11% | 4.26% | -1.08% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $13.57B | 10.41 | 17.28% | 6.88% | 37.27% | -29.09% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $2.83B | 6.02 | 32.61% | ― | -2.52% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $4.59B | 10.57 | 8.35% | 4.14% | -4.33% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $2.64B | -52.06 | -37.66% | 3.42% | -6.49% | 93.38% | |
52 Neutral | $3.22B | ― | -6.53% | 10.50% | 1.38% | 78.79% |
* Energy Sector Average
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Par Pacific Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Par Pacific Reshapes Capital Structure With New Debt Financing
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Par Petroleum, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Par Pacific Holdings, completed a private placement of $500 million in 7.375% senior unsecured notes due 2034 and entered into an amended and restated asset-based revolving credit f...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Par Pacific Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Par Pacific Holdings announced that its subsidiary Par Petroleum intends to privately offer $500 million of senior unsecured notes due 2034, with the notes expected to be guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by Par Pacific and c...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Par Pacific Shareholders Back Governance and Incentive Plan
Positive
May 4, 2026
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on April 30, 2026, where shareholders elected ten directors to the board and ratified Deloitte Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.