Par Pacific Holdings (PARR)
NYSE:PARR
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Par Pacific Holdings
(NYSE:PARR)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$69.00
▲(20.36% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/07/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (return to profitability, strong positive free cash flow, and major deleveraging). Technicals are moderately supportive with a positive longer-term trend but mixed near-term signals. Earnings-call commentary adds a constructive margin/cash-flow outlook, tempered by near-term headwinds (Hawaii price lag and turnaround). Valuation appears reasonable rather than clearly discounted, and the noted corporate event is modestly positive but low impact.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / strengthened balance sheet
Reported elimination of net debt and a 0.0x debt-to-equity reading materially increases financial flexibility. Over a multi-month horizon this reduces refinancing risk, supports opportunistic capital allocation (buybacks, bolt-on M&A, capex), and cushions the cyclical refining business versus prior leveraged periods.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue trend
A multi-year top-line contraction reduces scale economies and puts long-term pressure on fixed-cost absorption in refining and retail. If revenue erosion persists, it hampers margin sustainability and makes capital allocation choices riskier despite improved balance-sheet metrics over the next several months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage / strengthened balance sheet
Reported elimination of net debt and a 0.0x debt-to-equity reading materially increases financial flexibility. Over a multi-month horizon this reduces refinancing risk, supports opportunistic capital allocation (buybacks, bolt-on M&A, capex), and cushions the cyclical refining business versus prior leveraged periods.
Read all positive factors
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.9
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth-2.52%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,787
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.43
Shares Outstanding49,470,764
10 Day Avg. Volume1,427,452
30 Day Avg. Volume1,547,214
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.24
P/FCF Ratio6.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.29Price Target Upside24.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)11.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.95B
Par Pacific Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates three refineries that produces ultra-low sulfur...
How the Company Makes Money
Par Pacific primarily makes money by producing, distributing, and selling refined petroleum products (e.g., gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and related services across its integrated system.
1) Refining (manufacturing margin): The company buys crude ...
Par Pacific Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Par Pacific Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced near-term headwinds with stronger underlying fundamentals: operational execution was highlighted by record throughput, successful renewable unit start-up and strong April market crack strength that improved the outlook for margins and cash flow. Offsetting these positives were a material Hawaii price-lag headwind (~$125 million), sequential declines in refining and retail EBITDA, working capital outflows tied to inventory builds, and an upcoming Hawaii turnaround that will shift some impact into Q3. The company retains strong liquidity, low leverage and an opportunistic buyback framework, positioning it to capture the improving margin environment.Positive Updates
Solid Q1 Financials
First quarter adjusted EBITDA of $91 million and adjusted net income of $39 million, or $0.78 per share.
Negative Updates
Large Hawaii Price-Lag Headwind
Hawaii experienced a net price-lag headwind of approximately $125 million in Q1. Reported Hawaii capture was 42% including lag; normalized for the lag, Hawaii capture was ~92%.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Q1 Financials
First quarter adjusted EBITDA of $91 million and adjusted net income of $39 million, or $0.78 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: Par expects Q2 system throughput around a 182,000 bpd midpoint with Hawaii 77–81k bpd (record Q1 Hawaii was 90k; a planned turnaround starts late June for ~30–45 days and will take the renewables unit offline), Washington 40–42k bpd, Wyoming 14–16k bpd and Montana 45–49k bpd; April consolidated refining index averaged $42/boe (up $23 vs Q1) and management expects a Hawaii crude differential of $4–$5/bbl, noting a front‑to‑third‑month crude spread of $6–$8/bbl; renewables volumes and earnings are expected to be modest in Q2 with a more meaningful ramp in the back half of the year, the Hawaii turnaround’s financial impact should be limited in Q2 and shifted into Q3, and the company has no crack‑spread hedges so it is positioned to capture the stronger margin environment while generating robust cash flow to support liquidity ($938M at quarter end), further debt reduction (gross term debt $638M), accretive growth and opportunistic share repurchases (Q1 repurchases $28M at $38/sh; >14M shares repurchased to date, ~20% outstanding).Par Pacific Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.46B | 7.97B | 8.23B | 7.32B | 4.71B |
| Gross Profit | 1.35B | 741.72M | 1.27B | 846.00M | 277.37M |
| EBITDA | 704.58M | 175.37M | 805.59M | 532.96M | 80.46M |
| Net Income | 369.39M | -33.32M | 728.64M | 364.19M | -81.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.07B | 3.83B | 3.86B | 3.28B | 2.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 164.11M | 191.92M | 279.11M | 490.93M | 112.22M |
| Total Debt | 1.39B | 1.57B | 1.02B | 870.63M | 960.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.52B | 2.64B | 2.53B | 2.64B | 2.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 644.54M | 265.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 296.46M | -51.76M | 496.88M | 399.58M | -57.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 445.34M | 83.78M | 579.16M | 452.61M | -27.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -142.78M | -133.99M | -659.04M | -87.31M | 74.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -330.36M | -36.96M | -135.60M | 13.41M | -1.09M |
Par Pacific Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
57.33
Price Trends
52.62
Positive
45.85
Positive
40.40
Positive
Market Momentum
2.47
Positive
46.97
Neutral
48.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PARR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 57.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.41, above the 50-day MA of 52.62, and above the 200-day MA of 40.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PARR.
Par Pacific Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.81B | 4.35 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -1.08% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $3.08B | 13.92 | 32.61% | ― | -2.52% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $13.70B | 3.68 | 7.26% | 6.88% | 37.27% | -19.56% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | $2.76B | -3.37 | -37.66% | 3.42% | -6.49% | 93.38% | |
57 Neutral | $4.92B | 7.04 | 8.35% | 4.14% | -4.33% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $3.30B | -4.40 | -6.53% | 10.50% | 1.38% | 78.79% |
* Energy Sector Average
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Par Pacific Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Par Pacific Shareholders Back Governance and Incentive Plan
Positive
May 4, 2026
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on April 30, 2026, where shareholders elected ten directors to the board and ratified Deloitte Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.