Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.26B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 972.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: -10.11%
• EPS Growth: -7.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,787
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 1.17
• Shares Outstanding: 49,003,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,090,248
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 972,656
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.24
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.06
• 1Y Price Target: $51.33
• Price Target Upside: 11.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.32B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $51.00 ▲(10.68% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by a strong 2025 financial rebound (profitability and free cash flow) and balance-sheet strengthening, supported by a low earnings multiple. These positives are moderated by cyclical refining volatility and softer near-term margin/backdrop guidance, while technicals are mixed with some near-term weakness versus key moving averages.

Positive Factors

Material deleveraging and stronger capital base

Balance-sheet deleveraging and a larger equity base materially raise financial flexibility for 2–6 months and beyond. Lower gross term debt and improved liquidity reduce refinancing risk, enable disciplined capex and buybacks, and provide cushion through refining cycles, supporting durable resilience.

Materially stronger cash generation and free cash flow

Sustained operating cash flow and a return to positive free cash flow underpin self-funding of maintenance and growth capex, deleveraging, and shareholder returns. Improved cash conversion supports long-term investment in reliability and renewables commissioning, reducing dependence on external finance.

Diversified, scale-backed segment performance

Record Logistics and Retail earnings plus strong system throughput create structural resilience versus pure refining exposure. Fee-based logistics and higher-margin retail merchandise provide recurring, less cyclical cash streams that stabilize corporate earnings across commodity cycles and regional refining swings.

Negative Factors

Two consecutive years of declining revenue

Sustained top-line contraction erodes operating leverage and constrains margin expansion even as unit economics improve. If volumes or product spreads don't recover, the company may struggle to grow EBITDA sustainably and must rely more on cost cuts, asset optimization, or non-core monetizations to sustain earnings.

Remaining RIN inventory and monetization exposure

Persistent, unmoneitized RIN inventory creates working-capital and regulatory price exposure that can compress margins or force asset sales if credits fall. This structural exposure ties profitability to volatile compliance markets and slows durable cash conversion until inventory is monetized or hedged.

Site-level outages and elevated production costs

Recurring site-specific outages and materially higher per‑barrel production costs at some assets signal reliability and efficiency gaps. Over time these raise maintenance capex, increase unit operating costs, and reduce margin capture, making sustainable refining profitability more dependent on cyclical spreads rather than structural improvements.

Par Pacific Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates three refineries that produces ultra-low sulfur diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, distillate, asphalt, low sulfur fuel oil, and other associated refined products primarily for consumption in Hawaii, Pacific Northwest, Wyoming, and South Dakota. The Retail segment operates 119 fuel retail outlets, which sell merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared foods, and other sundries in Hawaii under the Hele, 76, and nomnom brands; and gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise in Washington and Idaho under the Cenex, nomnom, and Zip Trip brand names. The Logistics segment owns and operates terminals, pipelines, a single point mooring, and trucking operations to distribute refined products throughout the island of Oahu, Maui, Hawaii, Molokai, and Kauai. It also leases marine vessels; owns and operates a crude oil pipeline gathering system, a refined products pipeline, storage facilities, and loading racks in Wyoming; and a jet fuel storage facility and pipeline that serves Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota. In addition, this segment owns and operates a marine terminal, a unit train-capable rail loading terminal, storage facilities, a truck rack, and a proprietary pipeline that serves Joint Base Lewis McChord. The company was formerly known as Par Petroleum Corporation and changed its name to Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. in October 2015. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Par Pacific generates revenue primarily through its refining operations, where it earns money by processing crude oil and selling the refined products such as gasoline and diesel. The company benefits from the margins between the cost of crude oil and the selling prices of refined products. Key revenue streams also include logistics and transportation services, where Par Pacific charges for the movement and storage of petroleum products. Furthermore, retail operations contribute to the revenue through direct sales at convenience stores and gas stations. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and distributors, along with favorable market conditions in the energy sector, play a significant role in enhancing its earnings.

Par Pacific Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals improved meaningfully in 2025 with a return to solid profitability and strongly positive free cash flow, alongside a major leverage improvement (debt metrics notably better). Offsets are two consecutive years of declining revenue, high cyclicality/volatility in refining results, and a noted consistency caution in the latest balance sheet figures.

Income Statement

Profitability rebounded sharply in 2025 after a weak 2024: net margin improved from -0.4% (2024) to ~4.9% (2025) and operating profitability strengthened meaningfully. However, revenue has been declining for two consecutive years (down ~25% in 2025 after a slight decline in 2024), showing a less supportive top-line environment and higher cyclicality. Margins are solid versus the loss year, but remain below the peak profitability seen in 2023.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved dramatically by 2025, with total debt shown as 0 and debt-to-equity at 0.0x versus 1.3x in 2024 and higher levels earlier in the cycle. Equity also increased versus prior years, supporting a stronger capital base. The main caution is data consistency: 2025 total assets appear unusually low relative to prior years, so while the deleveraging signal is very positive, the asset trend warrants caution when interpreting the year-to-year balance sheet change.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened materially in 2025: operating cash flow rose to ~$445M and free cash flow turned strongly positive (~$296M) after negative free cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow covered about two-thirds of net income in 2025, indicating earnings are supported by cash, though conversion is not as strong as 2022–2023 when free cash flow more closely tracked profits. Results also show volatility across years, consistent with a cyclical refining business.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.46B	7.97B	8.23B	7.32B	4.71B
Gross Profit	1.35B	741.72M	1.27B	846.00M	277.37M
EBITDA	704.58M	175.37M	805.59M	532.96M	80.46M
Net Income	369.39M	-33.32M	728.64M	364.19M	-81.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	164.11M	3.83B	3.86B	3.28B	2.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	164.11M	191.92M	279.11M	490.93M	112.22M
Total Debt	0.00	1.57B	1.02B	870.63M	960.98M
Total Liabilities	-1.35B	2.64B	2.53B	2.64B	2.30B
Stockholders Equity	1.51B	1.19B	1.34B	644.54M	265.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	296.46M	-51.76M	496.88M	399.58M	-57.16M
Operating Cash Flow	445.34M	83.78M	579.16M	452.61M	-27.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-142.78M	-133.99M	-659.04M	-87.31M	74.63M
Financing Cash Flow	-330.36M	-36.96M	-135.60M	13.41M	-1.09M

Par Pacific Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 46.08
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.63, above the 50-day MA of 38.57, and above the 200-day MA of 34.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PARR.

Par Pacific Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PARR	71 Outperform	$2.26B	6.32	27.33%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
SUN	69 Neutral	$9.81B	27.96	5.60%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
DK	62 Neutral	$2.47B	-116.88	-6.81%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%
DINO	62 Neutral	$9.70B	16.25	6.21%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
PBF	54 Neutral	$4.60B	-26.88	-2.92%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CVI	47 Neutral	$2.51B	92.81	3.77%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%

Par Pacific Holdings Corporate Events

Par Pacific amends term loan to reduce borrowing costs

On December 17, 2025, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. and its affiliates amended their existing term loan credit agreement, securing a 50-basis-point reduction in the applicable margin so that base rate and SOFR loans now bear interest at the base rate plus 2.25% and 3.25%, respectively, which should lower borrowing costs and modestly improve the company’s financing profile. Separately, on December 16, 2025, its renewable fuels joint venture Hawaii Renewables, LLC entered into an uncommitted $25 million letter of credit facility with Wells Fargo to support payments to crude oil and soybean oil suppliers and executed an amended and restated pledge and security agreement that expands and refines the collateral granted to Wells Fargo, tightening the security structure around derivatives and letter of credit obligations and reinforcing the financial framework for the venture’s feedstock procurement.

The most recent analyst rating on (PARR) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Par Pacific Holdings stock, see the PARR Stock Forecast page.