Delek US Holdings (DK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.46B
• Dividend Yield: 3.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.62M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: -22.37%
• EPS Growth: -27.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,987
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 2.31
• Shares Outstanding: 59,808,422
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,883,968
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,616,679
• PEG Ratio: 0.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 81.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.65
• 1Y Price Target: $42.78
• Price Target Upside: 4.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.72
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.86B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $40.00 ▼(-2.75% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/02/26

The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile underlying financial performance (thin/negative profitability and leverage/ROE concerns), partially offset by strong technical momentum and a notably positive earnings-call setup (higher optimization targets, balance-sheet interest savings, and solid DKL guidance). Valuation is mixed given a moderate dividend but negative P/E tied to weak earnings.

Positive Factors

Enterprise Optimization Plan (EOP)

A materially higher EOP run-rate embeds permanent cost and operating improvements across refining, logistics and retail. Sustained $180M+ annual cash uplift reduces margin sensitivity, funds maintenance and returns, and structurally improves free cash flow conversion over coming years.

Improved Cash Generation

A return to positive operating and free cash flow signals stronger internal funding capacity. Sustained cash generation increases liquidity, supports dividends and buybacks, and provides flexibility to fund turnarounds or deleveraging without relying solely on external financing.

EPA SRE Approvals (Regulatory)

Regulatory clearance unlocking ~ $400M of SRE-related proceeds is a structural cash inflection rather than a market timing event. Realized proceeds can materially accelerate debt paydown, fund capex/turnarounds, and improve balance-sheet flexibility over the medium term if fully monetized.

Negative Factors

Leverage & Balance-Sheet Risk

A historically leveraged capital structure and negative recent ROE limit financial flexibility during down cycles. Elevated debt burdens increase refinancing and interest-rate exposure, constrain capital allocation choices, and raise vulnerability to margin downturns over a multi-quarter horizon.

Thin, Volatile Profitability & Margins

Very thin refining margins and cyclical earnings mean small commodity swings can flip profitability. Persistent low EBITDA margins reduce retained earnings and make long-term earnings durability and return generation uncertain, complicating investment and payout planning.

Uncertainty Around SRE Monetization

Regulatory approvals carry execution and legal risk: invalidated remedies and phased monetization create timing and recovery uncertainty. If full SRE value is impaired or delayed, expected proceeds may fall short, weakening planned deleveraging and the reliability of cash-return initiatives.

Delek US Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Delek US Holdings, Inc. engages in the integrated downstream energy business in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Logistics, and Retail. The Refining segment processes crude oil and other feedstock for the manufacture of various grades of gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, asphalt, and other petroleum-based products that are distributed through owned and third-party product terminal. It owns and operates four independent refineries located in Tyler, Texas; El Dorado, Arkansas; Big Spring, Texas; and Krotz Springs, Louisiana, as well as three biodiesel facilities in Crossett, Arkansas, Cleburne, Texas, and New Albany. The Logistics segment gathers, transports, and stores crude oil, intermediate, and refined products; and markets, distributes, transports, and stores refined products for third parties. It owns or leases capacity on approximately 400 miles of crude oil transportation pipelines, approximately 450 miles of refined product pipelines, an approximately 900-mile crude oil gathering system, and associated crude oil storage tanks with an aggregate of approximately 10.2 million barrels of active shell capacity; and owns and operates ten light product distribution terminals, as well as markets light products using third-party terminals. The Retail segment owns and leases 248 convenience store sites located primarily in West Texas and New Mexico. Its convenience stores offer various grades of gasoline and diesel under the DK or Alon brand; and food products and service, tobacco products, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages, and general merchandise, as well as money orders to the public primarily under the 7-Eleven and DK or Alon brand names. It serves oil companies, independent refiners and marketers, jobbers, distributors, utility and transportation companies, the U.S. government, and independent retail fuel operators. Delek US Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Delek US Holdings generates revenue primarily through its refining operations, which involve converting crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products. The company earns money from refining margins—the difference between the purchase price of crude oil and the selling price of refined products. Additionally, Delek Logistics provides logistics services that include the transportation and storage of crude oil and refined products, contributing another significant revenue stream. Retail operations, including the sale of fuel and convenience store merchandise, also add to the company's earnings. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers, along with a focus on operational efficiency, play a crucial role in enhancing profitability.

Delek US Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cyclical rebound with strong TTM revenue growth (+52.2%) and improved cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$537M; free cash flow ~$120M), but profitability remains pressured (EBIT and net income still slightly negative; thin margins) and results have been highly volatile across years. Balance-sheet quality is a key drag given historically meaningful leverage and negative recent ROE.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded strongly (+52.2%), but profitability remains pressured: EBIT and net income are still slightly negative, and margins are thin (gross margin ~3.1% and EBITDA margin ~2.0%). Results have been volatile over the cycle (profitable in 2022–2023, large losses in 2020 and 2024), which lowers confidence in earnings stability despite the recent top-line recovery.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and equity strength are key concerns. While TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows very low reported total debt versus equity, the company historically carried meaningful debt (2021–2024 total debt in the ~$2.4B–$3.2B range) and the debt-to-equity ratio has been elevated, reflecting a leveraged capital structure. Return on equity is negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and was sharply negative in 2024, pointing to weak returns and reduced balance-sheet flexibility during down cycles.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with positive operating cash flow (~$537M) and positive free cash flow (~$120M), a notable recovery from negative cash flow in 2024. However, free cash flow growth is sharply negative versus the prior period and cash flow has been volatile across years, which suggests sensitivity to refining margins and working-capital swings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.72B	11.85B	16.92B	19.80B	10.65B
Gross Profit	568.30M	-67.90M	1.04B	736.50M	225.50M
EBITDA	782.00M	-18.50M	664.00M	792.60M	264.00M
Net Income	-22.80M	-560.40M	19.80M	257.10M	-128.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.85B	6.67B	7.17B	8.19B	6.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	625.80M	735.60M	821.80M	841.30M	856.50M
Total Debt	3.35B	2.86B	2.74B	3.23B	2.42B
Total Liabilities	6.30B	6.09B	6.21B	7.12B	5.80B
Stockholders Equity	286.50M	312.80M	845.50M	943.60M	894.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.00M	-497.40M	616.80M	139.50M	148.20M
Operating Cash Flow	551.50M	-66.80M	1.01B	425.30M	371.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-713.60M	-241.50M	-408.00M	-931.60M	-178.40M
Financing Cash Flow	52.30M	221.70M	-624.70M	491.10M	-124.00M

Delek US Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 41.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.57, above the 50-day MA of 33.55, and above the 200-day MA of 30.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DK.

Delek US Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PARR	78 Outperform	$2.60B	4.84	28.59%	―	-10.11%	-7.00%
SUN	68 Neutral	$13.31B	13.57	7.27%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
DK	62 Neutral	$2.46B	-78.97	-14.06%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%
DINO	62 Neutral	$10.20B	14.84	6.25%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
PBF	57 Neutral	$5.09B	-19.51	-3.05%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CVI	47 Neutral	$2.84B	94.69	4.13%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%

Delek US Holdings Corporate Events

Delek US Swings to Q4 Profit, Boosts Cash Returns

Delek US Holdings reported a sharp turnaround in its fourth quarter 2025 results, released on February 27, 2026, posting net income of $78.3 million, adjusted net income of $143.0 million and adjusted EBITDA of $374.8 million, compared with steep losses a year earlier. The improvement was driven largely by stronger refining margins, higher crack spreads, and substantial cost relief from small refinery exemptions under renewable fuel standards.

The company advanced its Enterprise Optimization Plan, lifting annual run-rate cash flow improvements to about $200 million and recognizing roughly $50 million of those gains in the quarter, while also restructuring an Inventory Intermediation Agreement expected to boost free cash flow. Delek Logistics delivered record quarterly performance, helped by recent midstream acquisitions, and Delek US continued capital returns through about $20 million in share repurchases, $15.3 million in dividends for the quarter, and a new $0.255 per-share dividend declared on February 18, 2026, supported by a solid year-end liquidity position and relatively modest net debt excluding its logistics arm.

The most recent analyst rating on (DK) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Delek US Holdings stock, see the DK Stock Forecast page.

Delek US Declares Quarterly Dividend, Signals Ongoing Payouts

On February 18, 2026, Delek US Holdings, Inc. announced that its board had approved a quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on March 9, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 2, 2026, reflecting the company’s continued practice of returning capital to investors.

The move underscores Delek’s confidence in its cash generation from refining and midstream operations and provides income visibility for shareholders. It also highlights the financial link between Delek and its majority-owned Delek Logistics Partners, LP, within a broader strategy of leveraging downstream and midstream assets for shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (DK) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Delek US Holdings stock, see the DK Stock Forecast page.

Delek US Unveils 2026 Outlook and Optimization Plan

Effective January 12, 2026, Delek US senior management began using a new investor presentation to update current and prospective shareholders on its financial outlook, free cash flow profile and capital allocation priorities. The materials highlight the company’s Enterprise Optimization Plan, which is expected to add at least $180 million in annual cash flow, supported by more than $150 million in annual distributions from Delek Logistics and an amended Inventory Intermediation Agreement that is projected to improve working capital efficiency and generate an additional $30 million to $50 million of free cash flow. The presentation underscores that Delek has outpaced its U.S. refining peer group in total shareholder returns over the twelve months from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025, while outlining 2026 guidance that includes $200 million to $220 million of maintenance and reliability capital spending and a major turnaround at its Big Spring refinery in the first quarter of 2026 aimed at enhancing reliability, optimizing crude slate, improving product yields and enabling higher-octane blending, all of which are intended to support margin improvement and sustained cash generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (DK) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Delek US Holdings stock, see the DK Stock Forecast page.