Philip Morris (PM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $284.36B
• Dividend Yield: 3.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.1
• Beta (1Y): -0.12
• Revenue Growth: 7.72%
• EPS Growth: -12.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 83,100
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Tobacco
• EPS (TTM): 1.70
• Shares Outstanding: 1,556,679,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,095,153
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,219,086
• PEG Ratio: 0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): -24.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.64
• 1Y Price Target: $195.59
• Price Target Upside: 6.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $43.76B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $206.00 ▲(12.32% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven by strong profitability and cash generation, plus positive technical momentum and supportive 2026 guidance tied to accelerating smoke-free growth. Offsetting factors are elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity and high debt) and a relatively full valuation.

Positive Factors

High margins & cash generation

Sustained premium margins and consistently strong operating cash flow create durable internal funding for investments, dividends (~75% payout policy) and debt reduction. High cash conversion supports strategic shift to smoke‑free products and cushions the business against cyclical revenue volatility.

Structural shift to smoke‑free revenue

A large and growing smoke‑free revenue base diversifies away from combustible decline, illustrating durable product portfolio transformation. Broad geographic rollout and rising in‑market sales indicate structural demand that should sustain midterm revenue growth and margin mix improvement.

Proven execution & efficiency gains

Delivering accelerated targets and concrete cost savings demonstrates credible management execution. Realized efficiencies and repeatable programs improve operating leverage, enabling the company to fund smoke‑free expansion, pursue deleveraging goals and sustain earnings growth over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage & negative equity

Persistent negative equity and sizable debt restrict financial flexibility and limit options for equity‑based capital actions. High leverage increases refinancing and interest sensitivity risk, reducing the company's capacity to respond to regulatory shocks or fund large strategic M&A without adding more leverage.

Excise tax and combustible volume headwinds

Stepped excise hikes and large price increases in key markets create structural pressure on shipments and pricing power. Persistent regional tax actions can slow smoke‑free adoption in those markets and depress combustible unit volumes, making revenue trajectories more volatile and harder to predict.

ZYN supply, inventory & regulatory timing risk

Execution and regulatory timing for nicotine pouches are strategic bottlenecks: supply shortfalls and channel inventory create uneven growth, while FDA approvals (and subnational tax proposals) determine permitted marketing and category economics, introducing sustained execution and regulatory uncertainty.

Philip Morris Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company working to delivers a smoke-free future and evolving portfolio for the long-term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector. The company's product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, vapor, and oral nicotine products that are sold in markets outside the United States. The company offers its smoke-free products under the HEETS, HEETS Creations, HEETS Dimensions, HEETS Marlboro, HEETS FROM MARLBORO, Marlboro Dimensions, Marlboro HeatSticks, Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA brands, as well as the KT&G-licensed brands, Fiit, and Miix. It also sells its products under the Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris brands. In addition, the company owns various cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia; and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. The company sells its smoke-free products in 71 markets. Philip Morris International Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Philip Morris generates revenue primarily through the sale of its tobacco products, which include both traditional cigarettes and smoke-free alternatives like heated tobacco products and e-vapor products. The company's key revenue streams come from the global sale of these products, with a significant portion of earnings derived from its flagship brand, Marlboro. Additionally, Philip Morris has been investing heavily in research and development to innovate and expand its portfolio of reduced-risk products, which are increasingly becoming a focus as regulatory pressures on smoking increase. The company engages in significant marketing and distribution partnerships to enhance product reach and consumer engagement, contributing to overall sales. The ongoing transition towards smoke-free products is expected to play a crucial role in the company’s future revenue growth.

Philip Morris Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is strong with consistently high margins and robust free cash flow, but the balance sheet is a material risk factor due to persistently negative equity and sizeable debt, limiting financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength: gross margin stayed high (~63%–68%) and operating profitability remained very strong (EBIT margin ~34%–41%) across 2020–2025. After a modest 2024 net margin (~19%), 2025 rebounded to a strong ~28% with net income rising meaningfully. Revenue growth has been positive in most years (brief dip in 2020), but the pace is uneven and the 2025 growth figure appears unusually high versus the underlying revenue trend, suggesting a less stable growth trajectory than the margin profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and capital structure are the key weak spots. Total debt is large and has generally trended higher since 2020, while shareholder equity is negative in every year shown (roughly -$9B to -$13B), which limits balance-sheet flexibility and makes equity-based leverage and return measures unfavorable. Asset growth is moderate, but the persistent negative equity profile elevates financial risk despite strong earnings power.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently strong and supportive. Operating cash flow is healthy (roughly $9B–$12B annually) and free cash flow is robust, improving sharply in 2025 (with strong free-cash-flow growth). Cash conversion is solid, with free cash flow generally covering most of net income and reaching full coverage in 2025. The main watch-out is volatility in year-to-year free-cash-flow growth (declines in 2022–2023 before re-accelerating).

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	40.60B	37.88B	35.17B	31.76B	31.41B
Gross Profit	26.96B	24.55B	22.28B	20.36B	21.38B
EBITDA	17.08B	15.75B	13.37B	13.48B	13.97B
Net Income	11.50B	7.03B	7.79B	9.05B	9.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	69.19B	61.78B	65.30B	61.68B	41.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.87B	4.22B	3.06B	3.21B	4.50B
Total Debt	48.84B	45.70B	47.91B	43.12B	27.81B
Total Liabilities	77.21B	71.65B	74.75B	67.99B	49.50B
Stockholders Equity	-9.99B	-11.75B	-11.22B	-8.96B	-10.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.66B	10.77B	7.88B	9.73B	11.22B
Operating Cash Flow	12.23B	12.22B	9.20B	10.80B	11.97B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.49B	-1.09B	-3.60B	-15.68B	-2.36B
Financing Cash Flow	-7.61B	-9.48B	-5.58B	3.81B	-11.98B

Philip Morris Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 183.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 183.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 181.31, above the 50-day MA of 168.78, and above the 200-day MA of 164.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PM.

Philip Morris Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RLX	76 Outperform	$2.84B	26.87	4.71%	0.35%	51.49%	21.43%
PM	75 Outperform	$284.36B	25.15	―	3.59%	7.72%	-12.45%
BTI	69 Neutral	$126.61B	12.73	15.94%	5.22%	0.48%	―
TPB	69 Neutral	$2.53B	46.69	22.54%	0.28%	6.71%	8.16%
MO	66 Neutral	$112.08B	16.22	―	7.02%	-0.96%	-11.42%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
UVV	56 Neutral	$1.32B	15.62	5.81%	6.15%	3.01%	-7.14%

Philip Morris Corporate Events

Philip Morris Highlights Momentum in Smoke-Free Revenue Shift

On February 18, 2026, Philip Morris International used its appearance at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference to showcase the scale and momentum of its transition toward smoke-free products, highlighting that annual smoke-free net revenues have reached about $17 billion across 106 markets and now account for roughly 42% of total net revenues. Management emphasized that several regions, especially Europe, are already majority smoke-free by net revenues, that overall shipment volumes have shifted from structural decline to low single-digit growth driven by smoke-free products, and that the wider cigarette industry outside China and the U.S. shows steeper declines in markets where smoke-free products are available, underscoring both PMI’s strategic repositioning and the growing regulatory and public-health acceptance of tobacco harm-reduction models centered on non-combustible nicotine options.

The most recent analyst rating on (PM) stock is a Buy with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Philip Morris stock, see the PM Stock Forecast page.

Philip Morris Reaffirms 2026 EPS Outlook and Growth

On February 18, 2026, Philip Morris International said its CEO Jacek Olczak and CFO Emmanuel Babeau would present at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference, outlining how the transformed group is navigating an evolving operating environment and scaling its smoke-free brands. The company also highlighted its focus on shareholder value, including 2026–2028 growth targets, underlining its strategic push to consolidate leadership in next-generation nicotine products.

At the event, PMI reaffirmed its 2026 full-year reported diluted EPS forecast of $7.87 to $8.02 announced on February 6, with adjusted diluted EPS seen between $8.38 and $8.53, implying 11.1% to 13.1% growth versus $7.54 in 2025. Excluding a favorable $0.27 currency impact per share, the company projects adjusted EPS growth of 7.5% to 9.5%, signaling confidence in its earnings trajectory despite ongoing regulatory, litigation and macroeconomic risks flagged in its cautionary statements.

The most recent analyst rating on (PM) stock is a Buy with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Philip Morris stock, see the PM Stock Forecast page.

Philip Morris boosts U.S. smoke-free investments and jobs

On January 15, 2026, Philip Morris International and its U.S. businesses disclosed that since 2022 they have deployed more than $20 billion in U.S.-related investments, largely tied to the 2022 acquisition of Swedish Match and subsequent spending on domestic manufacturing, commercial rights, infrastructure and jobs, including more than $1 billion invested after the acquisition through September 30, 2025. The company highlighted new infrastructure projects in Colorado, Kentucky and North Carolina expected to create over 1,000 direct and 1,500 indirect jobs and deliver an estimated annual economic impact exceeding $800 million, alongside more than $35 million in charitable contributions since 2022—nearly $12 million of which went to about 600 nonprofits in 47 states and Washington, D.C. in 2025 alone. PMI U.S. underscored its role as a U.S. leader in “modern nicotine” and smoke-free products such as ZYN and IQOS, noting that PMI affiliates hold a dominant share of FDA modified-risk and premarket tobacco product marketing authorizations, and that its U.S. workforce has grown from several hundred to over 3,000 employees as it seeks to accelerate the shift of America’s roughly 30 million adult smokers to science-based, smoke-free alternatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (PM) stock is a Buy with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Philip Morris stock, see the PM Stock Forecast page.

Philip Morris Announces Quarterly Dividend Payment

On December 12, 2025, Philip Morris International announced a regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per common share, payable on January 14, 2026. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders while continuing its strategic shift towards smoke-free products. The announcement underscores PMI’s strong financial position and its dedication to evolving its business model to include products outside of the traditional tobacco and nicotine sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (PM) stock is a Hold with a $160.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Philip Morris stock, see the PM Stock Forecast page.

Philip Morris Enters New $2 Billion Credit Agreement

On December 11, 2025, Philip Morris International Inc. entered into a new credit agreement effective January 29, 2026, for a $2.0 billion revolving credit facility with Citibank Europe plc and Citibank, N.A. This facility, which will be used for general corporate purposes, replaces an existing facility set to expire in 2027. Additionally, PMI amended and extended a €1.5 billion credit facility, pushing its expiration to January 29, 2029. These financial maneuvers aim to enhance PMI’s liquidity and operational flexibility, potentially impacting its financial stability and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (PM) stock is a Hold with a $156.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Philip Morris stock, see the PM Stock Forecast page.

Philip Morris Reaffirms 2025 EPS Forecast at Conference

On December 2, 2025, Philip Morris International’s CEO, Jacek Olczak, presented at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference, reaffirming the company’s 2025 full-year EPS forecast of $7.39 to $7.49, indicating a projected increase from 2024. The announcement highlights PMI’s stable financial outlook and its strategic focus on smoke-free products, despite ongoing industry challenges and risks.

The most recent analyst rating on (PM) stock is a Buy with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Philip Morris stock, see the PM Stock Forecast page.