Philip Morris (PM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $259.45B
• Dividend Yield: 3.29%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.17M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.07
• Revenue Growth: 7.44%
• EPS Growth: -6.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 83,100
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 46
• Industry: Tobacco
• EPS (TTM): 1.91
• Shares Outstanding: 1,556,589,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,479,335
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,170,725
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.29
• 1Y Price Target: $195.58
• Price Target Upside: 19.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $185.00 ▲(12.67% Upside)

Philip Morris's overall stock score reflects strong earnings performance and strategic focus on smoke-free products, balanced by financial risks from high leverage and negative equity. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, while valuation metrics indicate potential overvaluation. The company's resilience in earnings and strategic initiatives provide a positive outlook, but financial stability remains a concern.

Positive Factors

Earnings

PM enjoyed 2Q volume, organic net sales, and op income % of +1.2%, +7% and 15%, respectively, on an FX neutral basis.

Sales Growth

Retail sales growth for Zyn accelerated from 15% in 1Q to 26% in 2Q and 36% in June amid improved on-shelf availability.

Negative Factors

Market Expectations

PM's stock fell 8% as its US ZYN volumes in 2Q were shy of market expectations.

Revenue Miss

A revenue miss and softer than expected U.S. Zyn shipments failed to exceed a very high bar and the shares were punished as a result.

Philip Morris Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is a leading global tobacco company, primarily known for its production and marketing of cigarettes and smoke-free products. The company operates in several segments, with a focus on its core brands, including Marlboro, and its innovative reduced-risk products such as IQOS. Philip Morris is committed to transitioning to a smoke-free future and investing in the development of alternatives to traditional tobacco products, positioning itself as a key player in the evolving tobacco landscape.

How the Company Makes Money

Philip Morris generates revenue primarily through the sale of its tobacco products, which include both traditional cigarettes and reduced-risk alternatives. The company’s key revenue streams include the sale of its flagship cigarette brands, particularly Marlboro, and the growing segment of smoke-free products such as IQOS and heated tobacco units. Additionally, Philip Morris benefits from international markets, where it has established a strong presence. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings include brand loyalty, regulatory compliance in various markets, and ongoing investments in product innovation aimed at reducing health risks associated with tobacco consumption.

Philip Morris Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Philip Morris shows strong revenue growth and profitability margins with a robust income statement. However, high leverage and negative equity on the balance sheet pose significant financial risks. Cash flow generation is efficient, although there's a slight decline in growth.

Income Statement

Philip Morris has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue of $39.01 billion, representing a 2.96% increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin is robust at 65.78%, alongside a healthy EBIT margin of 37.02% and EBITDA margin of 42.07%. However, the net profit margin slightly decreased to 21.06% from 18.57% a year ago, indicating some pressure on net profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity of -$11.97 billion, resulting in an unfavorable debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is negative, highlighting financial instability. Despite this, the return on equity (ROE) is not applicable due to negative equity, posing a risk to financial health.

Cash Flow

Philip Morris's operating cash flow remains robust at $10.41 billion TTM, with a decrease from the previous year. Nevertheless, FCF remains strong at $8.99 billion, with the free cash flow to net income ratio at 1.09. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.27, suggesting efficient cash generation with some indication of declining growth.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	37.88B	35.17B	31.76B	31.41B	28.69B
Gross Profit	24.55B	22.28B	20.36B	21.38B	19.13B
EBITDA	15.75B	13.37B	13.48B	13.97B	12.66B
Net Income	7.03B	7.79B	9.05B	9.11B	8.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	61.78B	65.30B	61.68B	41.29B	44.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.22B	3.06B	3.21B	4.50B	7.28B
Total Debt	45.70B	47.91B	43.12B	27.81B	31.54B
Total Liabilities	71.65B	74.75B	67.99B	49.50B	55.45B
Stockholders Equity	-11.75B	-11.22B	-8.96B	-10.11B	-12.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.77B	7.88B	9.73B	11.22B	9.21B
Operating Cash Flow	12.22B	9.20B	10.80B	11.97B	9.81B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.09B	-3.60B	-15.68B	-2.36B	-1.15B
Financing Cash Flow	-9.48B	-5.58B	3.81B	-11.98B	-8.50B

Philip Morris Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 164.19
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 164.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 167.42, below the 50-day MA of 172.58, and above the 200-day MA of 152.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PM.

Philip Morris Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UVV	73 Outperform	$1.37B	13.59	7.20%	5.87%	4.11%	-15.50%
MO	71 Outperform	$111.63B	12.96	-503.31%	6.14%	-0.18%	-10.69%
RLX	70 Outperform	$2.92B	29.20	4.56%	0.33%	61.64%	16.76%
TPB	70 Neutral	$1.78B	40.62	26.05%	0.29%	4.44%	-5.94%
PM	69 Neutral	$259.45B	31.76	-37142.11%	3.29%	7.44%	-6.72%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.46B	14.47	-3.60%	3.13%	2.63%	-6.18%
BTI	62 Neutral	$124.51B	31.99	5.97%	5.26%	0.48%	―

Philip Morris Corporate Events

Philip Morris Highlights Smoke-Free Strategy in Europe

On June 24, 2025, Philip Morris International hosted the Europe Investor Focus Event, presenting its strategic focus on smoke-free products and the company’s performance in the European market. The event highlighted PMI’s strong market position, with significant contributions to the EU economy and impressive growth in smoke-free product revenues, despite facing various business risks and regulatory challenges.

Philip Morris Declares Quarterly Dividend Amid Smoke-Free Transition

On June 13, 2025, Philip Morris International’s Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.35 per common share, payable on July 15, 2025. This announcement reflects PMI’s ongoing commitment to shareholder returns while it continues to transition towards a smoke-free future. The company’s strategic focus on smoke-free products and its significant investments in this area underscore its ambition to expand into wellness and healthcare, potentially enhancing its industry positioning and stakeholder value.

Philip Morris Issues €1 Billion in Notes

On June 6, 2025, PMI issued €1 billion in aggregate principal amount of Notes, divided equally between 2.750% Notes due 2029 and 3.250% Notes due 2032. The proceeds from this issuance are intended for general corporate purposes, including repaying outstanding commercial paper and meeting working capital requirements. The Notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, are subject to covenants and redemption options, and interest payments will begin in 2026. This financial maneuver is part of PMI’s broader strategy to manage its debt and financial operations effectively, impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Philip Morris Reaffirms 2025 Financial Forecast at Conference

On June 3, 2025, Philip Morris International’s CFO, Emmanuel Babeau, participated in the Deutsche Bank Global Consumer Conference, reaffirming the company’s full-year forecast for 2025. PMI projects a reported diluted EPS of $7.01 to $7.14 and an adjusted diluted EPS of $7.36 to $7.49, indicating a growth of 12% to 14%, or 10.5% to 12.5% excluding currency effects. This announcement underscores PMI’s strategic focus on transitioning towards smoke-free products and its commitment to financial growth, which is significant for investors and stakeholders.