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Philip Morris
(NYSE:PM)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$205.00
â–²(29.92% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/12/26
PM scores well on profitability and cash generation and is supported by constructive price momentum and a positive, guidance-reaffirming earnings call focused on smoke-free growth and margin expansion. The main constraint on the score is balance-sheet risk from persistently negative equity and higher debt, while valuation looks relatively full despite a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistently high operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable capacity to fund smoke-free R&D and commercial rollout, sustain the dividend, and service debt. Robust FCF underpins strategic optionality even with cyclical revenue swings, supporting long-term transition execution.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet / high leverage
Structural negative shareholders' equity and materially higher debt elevate financing and refinancing risk, limit strategic flexibility (M&A, buybacks), and can increase cost of capital. High leverage constrains the company's ability to absorb shocks and may pressure credit ratings over time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistently high operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable capacity to fund smoke-free R&D and commercial rollout, sustain the dividend, and service debt. Robust FCF underpins strategic optionality even with cyclical revenue swings, supporting long-term transition execution.
Read all positive factors
Philip Morris Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Shipment Volume by Product Type
Monitors the quantity of products shipped across different categories, providing insight into consumer demand trends and product popularity.
Monitors the quantity of products shipped across different categories, providing insight into consumer demand trends and product popularity.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPhilip Morris (PM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$284.08B
Dividend Yield3.59%
Average Volume (3M)5.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.6
Beta (1Y)-0.06
Revenue Growth8.48%
EPS Growth45.92%
CountryUS
Employees83,100
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryTobacco
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.11
Shares Outstanding1,558,558,800
10 Day Avg. Volume5,653,212
30 Day Avg. Volume5,058,012
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)-24.97
Price to Sales (P/S)6.14
P/FCF Ratio23.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$199.43Price Target Upside26.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)8.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$43.43B
Philip Morris Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Philip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and ni...
How the Company Makes Money
Philip Morris International primarily makes money by selling nicotine products to wholesalers, distributors, and retailers (and in some markets directly to consumers) across its international operating footprint. Its major revenue streams include:...
Philip Morris Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a predominantly positive operational and financial performance driven by strong pricing power, significant international smoke-free momentum (IQOS, ZYN, VEEV), margin expansion and robust EPS growth. Notable challenges were concentrated in the U.S. (ZYN shipment normalization and promotional/comparative dynamics), temporary timing effects (Japan pantry loading, Nordic timing), regional regulatory and excise headwinds, and a near-term slowdown in total shipments. Overall the positives — clear smoke-free growth, pricing, margin gains, strong cash generation and reconfirmed guidance with an upgraded reported EPS outlook — materially outweigh the near-term and localized headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Revenue Growth
Net revenues exceeded $10 billion, up +9.1% reported and +2.7% organic for Q1 2026, outperforming expectations despite tough prior-year comparisons.
Negative Updates
U.S. ZYN Shipment and Channel Inventory Headwinds
U.S. ZYN offtake grew +10% (Nielsen) but Q1 shipments declined to 155 million cans due to normalization of a downstream inventory overhang (~25 million cans) and comparison to an inventory rebuild in Q1 2025, creating shipment volatility and near-term segment pressure.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Revenue Growth
Net revenues exceeded $10 billion, up +9.1% reported and +2.7% organic for Q1 2026, outperforming expectations despite tough prior-year comparisons.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reconfirmed its 2026 guidance: broadly stable shipment volumes, organic net revenue growth of +5% to +7%, organic operating income growth of +7% to +9% and currency‑neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of +7.5% to +9.5%; at prevailing rates they now expect a $0.25 currency tailwind, lifting adjusted diluted EPS to $8.36–$8.51 (≈ +10.9%–12.9% in dollar terms), and they remain on track for full‑year organic margin expansion. Additional specifics include a full‑year cigarette volume decline of ~3%, continued strong global smoke‑free growth supported by high single‑digit volume progression, Q2 HTU shipments of 40–42 billion and mid‑single‑digit organic net revenue growth for Q2, a Q2 adjusted diluted EPS guide of $2.02–$2.07 (including a $0.02 favorable currency variance), an expectation of low‑single‑digit cigarette shipment decline in Q2, SG&A organic progression at or below net revenue growth for the year, and a continued plan to realize productivity and reinvestment while targeting more than a 6% combustible pricing variance for the year after Q1’s +8.5% combustible pricing.Philip Morris Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 41.49B | 40.65B | 37.88B | 35.17B | 31.76B | 31.41B |
| Gross Profit | 27.93B | 27.28B | 24.55B | 22.28B | 20.36B | 21.38B |
| EBITDA | 17.86B | 17.46B | 15.75B | 13.37B | 13.48B | 13.97B |
| Net Income | 11.10B | 11.35B | 7.03B | 7.79B | 9.05B | 9.11B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 68.91B | 69.19B | 61.78B | 65.30B | 61.68B | 41.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.45B | 4.87B | 4.22B | 3.06B | 3.21B | 4.50B |
| Total Debt | 51.95B | 48.84B | 45.70B | 47.91B | 43.12B | 27.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 76.21B | 77.21B | 71.65B | 74.75B | 67.99B | 49.50B |
| Stockholders Equity | -9.28B | -9.99B | -11.75B | -11.22B | -8.96B | -10.11B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.67B | 10.66B | 10.77B | 7.88B | 9.73B | 11.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.18B | 12.23B | 12.22B | 9.20B | 10.80B | 11.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.54B | -4.49B | -1.09B | -3.60B | -15.68B | -2.36B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.71B | -7.61B | -9.48B | -5.58B | 3.81B | -11.98B |
Philip Morris Technical Analysis
Positive
157.79
Price Trends
176.57
Positive
172.63
Positive
164.29
Positive
Market Momentum
1.04
Negative
55.43
Neutral
58.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 157.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 178.65, below the 50-day MA of 176.57, and below the 200-day MA of 164.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PM.
Philip Morris Risk Analysis
Philip Morris disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Philip Morris reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Philip Morris Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $284.08B | 25.64 | -105.29% | 3.59% | 8.48% | 45.92% | |
72 Outperform | $2.24B | 15.69 | 6.14% | 0.35% | 66.52% | 56.14% | |
71 Outperform | $121.42B | 15.21 | -255.35% | 7.02% | 0.75% | -19.96% | |
69 Neutral | $133.64B | 13.20 | 16.33% | 5.22% | 2.16% | 171.90% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.59B | 28.43 | 17.29% | 0.28% | 16.10% | 26.07% | |
53 Neutral | $1.30B | 40.04 | 2.24% | 6.15% | -0.77% | -65.72% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
PM
Philip Morris
182.27
9.64
5.59%
MO
Altria Group
72.71
16.85
30.16%
BTI
British American Tobacco
61.77
15.42
33.27%
UVV
Universal
51.62
-3.76
-6.79%
TPB
Turning Point Brands
85.94
12.32
16.73%
RLX
RLX Technology
1.93
-0.36
-15.79%
Philip Morris Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Philip Morris Declares Quarterly Dividend, Emphasizing Investor Returns
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Philip Morris International’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per common share, payable on July 20, 2026, to shareholders of record as of June 25, with the same date set as the ex-dividend date. The mov...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Philip Morris Updates 2026 Outlook, Highlights Smoke-Free Growth
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Philip Morris International said its CEO Jacek Olczak would address investors at the dbAccess Global Consumer Conference in Paris, highlighting expectations for a strong 2026 performance driven by momentum in its smoke-free portfo...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Philip Morris appoints new chief financial officer
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 18, 2026, Philip Morris International’s board approved the appointment of Massimo Andolina, currently President, Europe Region, as Group Chief Financial Officer, effective August 1, 2026, succeeding Emmanuel Babeau. Babeau, who has se...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Philip Morris Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditors
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Philip Morris International Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, with a quorum representing approximately 1.26 billion of the 1.56 billion shares outstanding as of the March 13, 2026 record date. All nominated directors we...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Philip Morris Highlights 2026 Outlook at Virtual Shareholder Meeting
Positive
May 6, 2026
Philip Morris International held its 2026 virtual Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 6, 2026, where Chairman André Calantzopoulos addressed investors and CEO Jacek Olczak highlighted strong 2025 results, including annual net revenues above...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Philip Morris International Prices $1.5 Billion Senior Notes
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Philip Morris International issued $750 million of 4.125% notes due 2029 and $750 million of 4.875% notes due 2036 as senior unsecured obligations under its longstanding indenture with HSBC Bank USA. The notes were sold through ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Philip Morris unveils new segment structure and metrics
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
Philip Morris International Inc. has reorganized its operations into two main business units, International and U.S., and from January 1, 2026 replaced its four geographic segments with three reportable segments: International Smoke-Free, Internat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.