Philip Morris (PM)
NYSE:PM
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Philip Morris
(NYSE:PM)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$191.00
▲(21.28% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven mainly by strong profitability and cash generation plus upbeat guidance tied to smoke-free growth, partially offset by elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity and high debt). Technical signals are currently weak, while valuation is supported by the dividend but not especially cheap on earnings.
Positive Factors
High and Sustainable Margins
Philip Morris reports structurally high gross and operating margins (gross >67%, adjusted operating margin ~40%), reflecting strong pricing power, mix shift to higher‑margin smoke‑free products and disciplined cost programs. These persistent margins underpin cash generation and fund reinvestment and dividends over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak Balance Sheet / Negative Equity
Persistent negative shareholder equity and sizable, rising debt levels limit financial flexibility. Negative equity elevates refinancing and covenant risk, constrains balance‑sheet responses to shocks and makes leverage metrics and capital returns more sensitive to earnings volatility even as management targets gradual deleveraging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and Sustainable Margins
Philip Morris reports structurally high gross and operating margins (gross >67%, adjusted operating margin ~40%), reflecting strong pricing power, mix shift to higher‑margin smoke‑free products and disciplined cost programs. These persistent margins underpin cash generation and fund reinvestment and dividends over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Philip Morris (PM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$245.16B
Dividend Yield3.59%
Average Volume (3M)4.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.0
Beta (1Y)-0.05
Revenue Growth7.72%
EPS Growth-12.45%
CountryUS
Employees83,100
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryTobacco
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.70
Shares Outstanding1,556,679,600
10 Day Avg. Volume4,049,079
30 Day Avg. Volume4,991,531
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)-24.97
Price to Sales (P/S)6.14
P/FCF Ratio23.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$197.86Price Target Upside25.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)8.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$43.69B
Philip Morris Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company working to delivers a smoke-free future and evolving portfolio for the long-term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector. The company's product portfolio primari...
How the Company Makes Money
Philip Morris generates revenue primarily through the sale of its tobacco products, which include both traditional cigarettes and smoke-free alternatives like heated tobacco products and e-vapor products. The company's key revenue streams come fro...
Philip Morris Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Shipment Volume by Product Type
Monitors the quantity of products shipped across different categories, providing insight into consumer demand trends and product popularity.
Monitors the quantity of products shipped across different categories, providing insight into consumer demand trends and product popularity.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPhilip Morris Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial story: robust smoke-free volume growth, meaningful margin expansion, rising profitability, strong cash generation, and delivery of strategic targets ahead of schedule. These positives are tempered by several material near-term headwinds—most notably Japan excise changes, regional excise-driven combustible volume pressure (India, Mexico), transactional currency losses in Q4, U.S. regulatory timing for new product introductions, and some supply/inventory dynamics for ZYN. Management has durable growth plans and renewed medium-term targets, but execution and regulatory/tax events create identifiable near-term risks.Positive Updates
Strong Smoke-Free Volume Growth
Smoke-free product shipments rose 12.8% year-over-year, adding ~20 billion units (179 billion total smoke-free units in 2025). IQOS shipments grew ~11% (to ~155 billion units) with adjusted in-market sales (IMS) growth accelerating to ~12% in Q4 and ~10.5% for the full year.
Negative Updates
Japan Excise Tax Headwind and 2026 Atypical Year
Planned excise tax increases on heated tobacco in Japan (two steps in 2026) are expected to create a transitory headwind for the category and IQOS, potentially reducing in-market growth and causing shipment volatility in 2026; management flagged material impact on 2026 volumes and pricing dynamics.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Smoke-Free Volume Growth
Smoke-free product shipments rose 12.8% year-over-year, adding ~20 billion units (179 billion total smoke-free units in 2025). IQOS shipments grew ~11% (to ~155 billion units) with adjusted in-market sales (IMS) growth accelerating to ~12% in Q4 and ~10.5% for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PMI guided to another year of strong, profitable growth in 2026, forecasting organic net revenue growth of 5–7% and organic operating income growth of 7–9%, with currency‑neutral adjusted diluted EPS up 7.5–9.5% (an expected 28¢ currency benefit implying $8.09–$8.54, or 11.3–13.3% in dollar terms); they expect smoke‑free shipments and adjusted IMS to grow in the high‑single‑digit range (after Japan excise and U.S. ZYN inventory headwinds) while combustible cigarette shipments decline ~3% (industry cigarettes & HDUs ~‑2%), and total shipment growth broadly stable; first‑quarter is expected to be the softest (Q1 combustible down up to 5%, broadly flat organic net revenue and operating income) with Q1 adjusted EPS guided to $1.80–$1.85 (including a 14¢ FX tailwind); operating cash flow is expected to accelerate to ~€13.5bn, the effective tax rate to be ~21.5%, net finance costs broadly stable, leverage targeted close to 2.0x by year‑end 2026, dividend payout maintained around ~75% of adjusted diluted EPS, and the company reaffirmed medium‑term 2026–28 CAGRs of 6–8% organic net revenue, 8–10% organic operating income, and 9–11% constant‑currency adjusted diluted EPS, with smoke‑free shipment/IMS growth targeted at high‑single‑digits to low‑teens.Philip Morris Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 40.65B | 37.88B | 35.17B | 31.76B | 31.41B |
| Gross Profit | 27.28B | 24.55B | 22.28B | 20.36B | 21.38B |
| EBITDA | 17.46B | 15.75B | 13.37B | 13.48B | 13.97B |
| Net Income | 11.35B | 7.03B | 7.79B | 9.05B | 9.11B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 69.19B | 61.78B | 65.30B | 61.68B | 41.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.87B | 4.22B | 3.06B | 3.21B | 4.50B |
| Total Debt | 48.84B | 45.70B | 47.91B | 43.12B | 27.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 77.21B | 71.65B | 74.75B | 67.99B | 49.50B |
| Stockholders Equity | -9.99B | -11.75B | -11.22B | -8.96B | -10.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.66B | 10.77B | 7.88B | 9.73B | 11.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.23B | 12.22B | 9.20B | 10.80B | 11.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.49B | -1.09B | -3.60B | -15.68B | -2.36B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.61B | -9.48B | -5.58B | 3.81B | -11.98B |
Philip Morris Technical Analysis
Negative
157.49
Price Trends
173.90
Negative
165.12
Negative
163.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.06
Positive
35.24
Neutral
45.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 157.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 164.90, below the 50-day MA of 173.90, and below the 200-day MA of 163.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PM.
Philip Morris Risk Analysis
Philip Morris disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Philip Morris reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Philip Morris Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.60B | 22.23 | 5.73% | 0.35% | 51.49% | 21.43% | |
69 Neutral | $245.16B | 21.99 | -103.69% | 3.59% | 7.72% | -12.45% | |
69 Neutral | $128.70B | 7.23 | 16.33% | 5.22% | 0.48% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $110.76B | 13.92 | -215.18% | 7.02% | -0.96% | -11.42% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $1.37B | 34.13 | 20.84% | 0.28% | 6.71% | 8.16% | |
56 Neutral | $1.30B | 9.94 | 5.81% | 6.15% | 3.01% | -7.14% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
PM
Philip Morris
157.49
10.89
7.42%
MO
Altria Group
66.25
13.59
25.82%
BTI
British American Tobacco
58.80
20.91
55.18%
UVV
Universal
52.30
2.31
4.63%
TPB
Turning Point Brands
71.59
13.93
24.15%
RLX
RLX Technology
2.13
0.43
25.29%
Philip Morris Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Philip Morris unveils new segment structure and metrics
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
Philip Morris International Inc. has reorganized its operations into two main business units, International and U.S., and from January 1, 2026 replaced its four geographic segments with three reportable segments: International Smoke-Free, Internat...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Philip Morris Declares Quarterly Dividend Amid Smoke-Free Shift
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Philip Morris International Inc. announced that its board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per common share, underscoring the group’s continued commitment to returning cash to shareholders. The dividend will b...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Philip Morris Highlights Momentum in Smoke-Free Revenue Shift
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Philip Morris International used its appearance at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference to showcase the scale and momentum of its transition toward smoke-free products, highlighting that annual smoke-free net rev...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Philip Morris Reaffirms 2026 EPS Outlook and Growth
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Philip Morris International said its CEO Jacek Olczak and CFO Emmanuel Babeau would present at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference, outlining how the transformed group is navigating an evolving operating environ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Philip Morris boosts U.S. smoke-free investments and jobs
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
On January 15, 2026, Philip Morris International and its U.S. businesses disclosed that since 2022 they have deployed more than $20 billion in U.S.-related investments, largely tied to the 2022 acquisition of Swedish Match and subsequent spending ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.