Philip Morris (PM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $234.07B
• Dividend Yield: 3.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.2
• Beta (1Y): -0.11
• Revenue Growth: 7.72%
• EPS Growth: -12.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 83,100
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Tobacco
• EPS (TTM): 2.24
• Shares Outstanding: 1,556,638,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,384,934
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,432,312
• PEG Ratio: -2.72
• Price to Book (P/B): -15.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.00
• 1Y Price Target: $185.86
• Price Target Upside: 20.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.54
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $40.67B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $159.00 ▲(3.48% Upside)

Philip Morris's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and strategic corporate actions, offset by high leverage and a bearish technical outlook. The company's focus on smoke-free products and geographic expansion presents a promising long-term growth trajectory, despite current financial stability concerns.

Positive Factors

Smoke-Free Product Growth

The significant growth in smoke-free products like IQOS indicates a successful transition strategy, positioning PMI for long-term sustainability as regulatory pressures on traditional tobacco increase.

Geographic Expansion

Expanding into new markets enhances PMI's global footprint and revenue potential, supporting sustained growth and diversification of its product portfolio.

Corporate Restructuring

The restructuring into distinct business units aligns operations with strategic goals, improving focus on smoke-free products and potentially boosting efficiency and growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting PMI's ability to invest in growth initiatives and weather economic downturns.

Elevated Commercial Spending

Increased spending on brand growth may pressure short-term profitability, affecting cash flow and potentially delaying returns on investment in new markets.

Inventory Adjustments

Inventory adjustments could impact short-term financial performance, reflecting challenges in managing supply chain and demand forecasting, which may affect earnings stability.

Philip Morris Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is a leading global tobacco company known for its iconic cigarette brands, including Marlboro, as well as its commitment to reducing the harm of smoking through innovative alternatives. The company operates in the tobacco sector and has expanded into the heated tobacco and vaping segments with products such as IQOS, which are designed to offer less harmful alternatives to traditional smoking. With a presence in over 180 markets, Philip Morris focuses on transitioning smokers to smoke-free products while maintaining a robust portfolio of conventional tobacco products.

How the Company Makes Money

Philip Morris generates revenue primarily through the sale of its tobacco products, which include both traditional cigarettes and smoke-free alternatives like heated tobacco products and e-vapor products. The company's key revenue streams come from the global sale of these products, with a significant portion of earnings derived from its flagship brand, Marlboro. Additionally, Philip Morris has been investing heavily in research and development to innovate and expand its portfolio of reduced-risk products, which are increasingly becoming a focus as regulatory pressures on smoking increase. The company engages in significant marketing and distribution partnerships to enhance product reach and consumer engagement, contributing to overall sales. The ongoing transition towards smoke-free products is expected to play a crucial role in the company’s future revenue growth.

Philip Morris Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Philip Morris demonstrates strong profitability and cash flow generation, supported by consistent revenue growth. However, the company's high leverage and negative equity are significant concerns, potentially impacting long-term financial stability.

Income Statement

Philip Morris shows a solid revenue growth rate of 2.4% TTM, with strong gross and EBIT margins at 66.3% and 39.3%, respectively. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 21.6% TTM from 22.1% in 2023. Overall, the company demonstrates stable profitability with consistent revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of -4.59 TTM, indicating significant leverage. The negative stockholders' equity suggests financial instability, and the return on equity is also negative. While total assets have grown, the high leverage poses a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Philip Morris has shown a healthy free cash flow growth rate of 12.6% TTM, with a strong free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.86. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.27, indicating efficient cash generation. However, the cash flow stability is somewhat offset by the high leverage.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	39.94B	37.88B	35.17B	31.76B	31.41B	28.69B
Gross Profit	26.47B	24.55B	22.28B	20.36B	21.38B	19.13B
EBITDA	17.68B	15.75B	13.37B	13.48B	13.97B	12.66B
Net Income	8.61B	7.03B	7.79B	9.05B	9.11B	8.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	67.06B	61.78B	65.30B	61.68B	41.29B	44.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.04B	4.22B	3.06B	3.21B	4.50B	7.28B
Total Debt	50.08B	45.70B	47.91B	43.12B	27.81B	31.54B
Total Liabilities	76.05B	71.65B	74.75B	67.99B	49.50B	55.45B
Stockholders Equity	-10.91B	-11.75B	-11.22B	-8.96B	-10.11B	-12.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.12B	10.77B	7.88B	9.73B	11.22B	9.21B
Operating Cash Flow	11.53B	12.22B	9.20B	10.80B	11.97B	9.81B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.10B	-1.09B	-3.60B	-15.68B	-2.36B	-1.15B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.10B	-9.48B	-5.58B	3.81B	-11.98B	-8.50B

Philip Morris Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 153.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 153.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 153.24, above the 50-day MA of 153.56, and below the 200-day MA of 162.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PM.

Philip Morris Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RLX	76 Outperform	$2.89B	27.34	4.71%	0.34%	51.49%	21.43%
UVV	70 Neutral	$1.32B	11.97	7.72%	6.10%	3.01%	-7.14%
TPB	69 Neutral	$1.95B	35.97	22.54%	0.28%	6.71%	8.16%
MO	64 Neutral	$97.67B	11.10	―	7.02%	-0.96%	-11.42%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
PM	61 Neutral	$234.07B	27.24	―	3.59%	7.72%	-12.45%
BTI	59 Neutral	$125.22B	31.71	5.97%	5.22%	0.48%	―

Philip Morris Corporate Events

Philip Morris Announces Quarterly Dividend Payment

On December 12, 2025, Philip Morris International announced a regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per common share, payable on January 14, 2026. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders while continuing its strategic shift towards smoke-free products. The announcement underscores PMI’s strong financial position and its dedication to evolving its business model to include products outside of the traditional tobacco and nicotine sectors.

Philip Morris Enters New $2 Billion Credit Agreement

On December 11, 2025, Philip Morris International Inc. entered into a new credit agreement effective January 29, 2026, for a $2.0 billion revolving credit facility with Citibank Europe plc and Citibank, N.A. This facility, which will be used for general corporate purposes, replaces an existing facility set to expire in 2027. Additionally, PMI amended and extended a €1.5 billion credit facility, pushing its expiration to January 29, 2029. These financial maneuvers aim to enhance PMI’s liquidity and operational flexibility, potentially impacting its financial stability and stakeholder relations.

Philip Morris Reaffirms 2025 EPS Forecast at Conference

On December 2, 2025, Philip Morris International’s CEO, Jacek Olczak, presented at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference, reaffirming the company’s 2025 full-year EPS forecast of $7.39 to $7.49, indicating a projected increase from 2024. The announcement highlights PMI’s stable financial outlook and its strategic focus on smoke-free products, despite ongoing industry challenges and risks.

Philip Morris to Redeem Outstanding Notes Early

On November 17, 2025, Philip Morris International Inc. announced its decision to redeem all outstanding 4.875% Notes due February 13, 2026, on December 4, 2025. This financial move involves a redemption price based on the greater of the full principal amount or the present value of remaining payments, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

Philip Morris Announces New Corporate Structure

Philip Morris International announced a new corporate organizational model effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing agility and supporting its transition to a smoke-free company. The new structure includes the creation of two primary business units, PMI International and PMI U.S., and a wellness unit named Aspeya. The company has appointed Frederic de Wilde as CEO of PMI International, with Stacey Kennedy continuing as CEO of PMI U.S. The restructuring will replace the current four geographic segments with three new reportable segments: International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles, and U.S. This move is expected to maximize growth and align the company’s operations with its smoke-free ambitions.

Philip Morris Issues $3.5 Billion in Notes

On October 29, 2025, Philip Morris International Inc. issued a series of Notes totaling $3.5 billion, with varying interest rates and maturities ranging from 2028 to 2035. The proceeds from this issuance are intended for general corporate purposes, including refinancing existing debt, and the Notes are subject to certain covenants and redemption terms.

Philip Morris Boosts Dividend Amid Smoke-Free Transition

On September 19, 2025, Philip Morris International announced an 8.9% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.47 per share, payable on October 20, 2025. This marks a consistent annual dividend increase since 2008, reflecting the company’s strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns. The announcement underscores PMI’s strategic focus on transitioning to smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of its total net revenues in the first half of 2025, and its ongoing efforts to innovate and expand its market presence.