Altria Group Inc (MO)
NYSE:MO
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Altria Group
(NYSE:MO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$73.00
â–²(13.76% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/30/26
MO’s score is primarily driven by strong profitability and free-cash-flow generation, but is held back by substantial leverage and negative equity that constrain balance-sheet flexibility. Valuation is supportive due to a moderate P/E and high dividend yield, while technical signals and the latest earnings call point to a broadly neutral setup with modest EPS growth guidance offset by volume declines and competitive pressures.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Altria’s very large, consistent operating and free cash flows provide durable capacity to fund dividends, buybacks, capex and strategic investments. High cash conversion (FCF tracking net income ~98%) supports shareholder returns and strategic optionality despite slower revenue growth.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage / negative equity
A capital structure with very large debt and negative equity materially limits financial flexibility. High leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constrains ability to accelerate investment or absorb shocks, and narrows strategic options over a multi-quarter horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow
Altria’s very large, consistent operating and free cash flows provide durable capacity to fund dividends, buybacks, capex and strategic investments. High cash conversion (FCF tracking net income ~98%) supports shareholder returns and strategic optionality despite slower revenue growth.
Read all positive factors
Altria Group (MO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$111.78B
Dividend Yield7.02%
Average Volume (3M)9.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.9
Beta (1Y)-0.06
Revenue Growth-1.40%
EPS Growth-37.15%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryTobacco
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.30
Shares Outstanding1,671,313,600
10 Day Avg. Volume7,915,138
30 Day Avg. Volume9,315,067
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.37
Price to Book (P/B)-27.61
Price to Sales (P/S)4.80
P/FCF Ratio10.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$68.14Price Target Upside6.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)5.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.28B
Altria Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. The company provides cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars and pipe tobacco principally under the Black ...
How the Company Makes Money
Altria makes money primarily by selling tobacco and nicotine products in the United States and, to a lesser extent, by selling wine. Its largest revenue stream is smokeable products—principally cigarettes—where it earns revenue from wholesale ship...
Altria Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Smokeable Products Sticks Shipped
Indicates the volume of cigarette products distributed, reflecting consumer demand trends and market penetration for Altria's smokeable segment.
Indicates the volume of cigarette products distributed, reflecting consumer demand trends and market penetration for Altria's smokeable segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAltria Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mix of positive strategic and financial developments alongside material near‑term challenges. Positives include full‑year EPS growth (4.4%), strong full‑year smokeable margins and net price realization, substantial shareholder returns (~$8B), progress in the nicotine pouch portfolio (ON and ON PLUS FDA authorizations and a planned national rollout), international expansion, and a clear plan to unlock import/export duty‑drawback benefits (with management citing <1 year payback). Offsetting these are meaningful cigarette volume declines (~9–10% FY adjusted), Q4 margin and adjusted OCI pressures in certain segments, intense competitive/promotional activity in nicotine pouches, a large $1.3B noncash e‑vapor impairment, and the ongoing industry headwind from illicit disposable e‑vapor products. Overall, the positives and negatives are roughly balanced — the company shows solid cash generation, strategic progress and guidance for modest EPS growth in 2026, but also faces significant operational and market headwinds that temper near‑term outlook.Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS Growth and 2026 Guidance
Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS grew 4.4% to a $5.42 base. Management guided 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $5.56 to $5.72, implying growth of approximately 2.5% to 5.5%, with growth expected to be weighted to the second half of the year.
Negative Updates
Significant Cigarette Volume Declines
Domestic cigarette volumes declined meaningfully: down 7.9% in Q4 and 10% for the full year (when adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements: ~7.0% Q4 and ~9.5% full year). At the industry level (adjusted) cigarette volumes are estimated to have declined ~8% for the full year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EPS Growth and 2026 Guidance
Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS grew 4.4% to a $5.42 base. Management guided 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $5.56 to $5.72, implying growth of approximately 2.5% to 5.5%, with growth expected to be weighted to the second half of the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Altria guided 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $5.56 to $5.72 (a 2.5%–5.5% increase from the $5.42 2025 base), with growth weighted to the second half of the year as cigarette import/export activity ramps; the outlook contemplates planned investments (including contract manufacturing capabilities, marketplace support, smoke‑free product support, and R&D), expects Helix to be profitable for full‑year 2026, assumes limited near‑term impact on combustible and e‑vapor volumes from illicit‑market enforcement, and factors in that NJOY ACE will not return to the marketplace in 2026; management also discussed elevated 2026 capital spending centered on import/export and smoke‑free capabilities in the roughly $300–$375 million range.Altria Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 20.14B | 20.44B | 20.50B | 20.69B | 21.11B |
| Gross Profit | 17.44B | 14.37B | 14.28B | 14.25B | 13.99B |
| EBITDA | 10.83B | 15.07B | 12.35B | 8.74B | 5.26B |
| Net Income | 6.95B | 11.26B | 8.13B | 5.76B | 2.48B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 35.02B | 35.18B | 38.57B | 36.95B | 39.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.48B | 3.13B | 3.69B | 4.03B | 4.54B |
| Total Debt | 25.71B | 24.93B | 26.23B | 26.68B | 28.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.47B | 37.37B | 42.06B | 40.88B | 41.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | -3.50B | -2.24B | -3.54B | -3.97B | -1.61B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.07B | 8.61B | 9.09B | 8.05B | 8.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.29B | 8.75B | 9.29B | 8.26B | 8.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -341.00M | 2.17B | -1.28B | 782.00M | 1.21B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.62B | -11.49B | -8.37B | -9.54B | -10.03B |
Altria Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
64.17
Price Trends
65.83
Negative
61.85
Positive
61.02
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
42.02
Neutral
8.16
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 64.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.48, below the 50-day MA of 65.83, and above the 200-day MA of 61.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MO.
Altria Group Risk Analysis
Altria Group disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Altria Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Altria Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.73B | 18.19 | 5.73% | 0.35% | 48.35% | 68.22% | |
70 Outperform | $255.91B | 26.50 | -105.29% | 3.59% | 8.48% | 45.92% | |
69 Neutral | $126.02B | 7.23 | 16.33% | 5.22% | 2.16% | 171.90% | |
66 Neutral | $111.78B | 13.92 | -215.18% | 7.02% | -1.40% | -37.15% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $1.51B | 34.13 | 20.84% | 0.28% | 14.38% | 42.23% | |
56 Neutral | $1.34B | 9.94 | 5.81% | 6.15% | -3.46% | -32.63% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
MO
Altria Group
66.00
11.63
21.40%
BTI
British American Tobacco
57.32
17.37
43.49%
PM
Philip Morris
160.90
-2.48
-1.52%
UVV
Universal
53.62
-0.57
-1.06%
TPB
Turning Point Brands
79.88
20.73
35.05%
RLX
RLX Technology
2.18
0.46
26.82%
Altria Group Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Altria Files 2025 Consolidated Financial Statements Highlighting Leverage
Negative
Jan 29, 2026
Altria filed consolidated financial statements for the three years ended December 31, 2025, detailing its financial position as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, along with reports from its independent registered public accounting firm and management...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Altria Expands Board, Names Mancuso Director and CEO
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 28–29, 2026, Altria’s board expanded from 11 to 12 members and elected Salvatore Mancuso as a director effective January 29, 2026, ahead of his previously announced transition to Chief Executive Officer following the May 14,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.