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Altria Group
(NYSE:MO)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$72.00
â–¼(-1.36% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/31/26
MO scores 63 primarily due to strong profitability and cash generation, but the overall rating is capped by significant balance-sheet leverage (high debt and negative equity). Valuation is supportive with a high dividend yield and moderate P/E, while the latest earnings call was moderately positive (raised guidance and continued capital returns) despite persistent volume/mix pressures. Technically, the stock is in a weak near-term trend versus major moving averages.
Positive Factors
High Profitability and Margins
Sustained high net and EBIT margins reflect strong pricing power, premium Marlboro mix and tight cost control. These durable margins support cash generation, shareholder returns and buffer profit volatility as volumes decline, preserving long‑term earnings resilience.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Negative Equity
Very high debt and negative equity materially reduce financial flexibility, increase interest and refinancing risk, and constrain strategic optionality. A leveraged capital structure amplifies downside to cash‑flow shocks and limits capacity for growth investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability and Margins
Sustained high net and EBIT margins reflect strong pricing power, premium Marlboro mix and tight cost control. These durable margins support cash generation, shareholder returns and buffer profit volatility as volumes decline, preserving long‑term earnings resilience.
Read all positive factors
Altria Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Smokeable Products Sticks Shipped
Indicates the volume of cigarette products distributed, reflecting consumer demand trends and market penetration for Altria's smokeable segment.
Indicates the volume of cigarette products distributed, reflecting consumer demand trends and market penetration for Altria's smokeable segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAltria Group (MO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$109.70B
Dividend Yield6.45%
Average Volume (3M)7.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.9
Beta (1Y)-0.18
Revenue Growth1.01%
EPS Growth-8.27%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryTobacco
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.74
Shares Outstanding1,669,743,900
10 Day Avg. Volume6,824,241
30 Day Avg. Volume7,527,329
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.38
Price to Book (P/B)-27.61
Price to Sales (P/S)4.80
P/FCF Ratio10.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.63Price Target Upside-1.87% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)5.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.55B
Altria Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating across the United States through its subsidiaries, Altria Group, Inc. is a prominent manufacturer and marketer of both combustible and oral tobacco items. Its portfolio features cigarettes, primarily under the iconic Marlboro brand, alon...
How the Company Makes Money
Altria makes money primarily by selling tobacco and nicotine products in the United States, with revenue recognized from shipments to wholesalers and retailers (net of discounts, promotions, and certain taxes where applicable). Its largest revenue...
Altria Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized solid financial performance and disciplined execution: EPS growth (Q2 +2.8%, H1 +4.9%), expanded smokeable margins, a narrowed full-year EPS range, substantial shareholder returns (~$3.9 billion YTD), ABI earnings growth (+21.5%), and strategic expansion of the smoke-free on! PLUS offering to ~120,000 stores. Offsetting items included a weaker Oral Tobacco quarter (adjusted OCI down 8% Q2), reported shipment declines affected by trade inventory timing, ongoing cigarette volume declines (adjusted ~-4.5% Q2) and continued consumer trade-down toward discount brands. Management highlighted favorable regulatory and enforcement developments that could benefit regulated smoke-free products over time. On balance, the positives around profitability, cash returns, regulatory tailwinds and product expansion were presented as outweighing near-term volume and segment-specific headwinds.Positive Updates
EPS Growth and Guidance Narrowing
Adjusted diluted EPS increased 2.8% to $1.48 in Q2 and 4.9% to $2.80 for the first half. Management raised the lower end of full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $5.61 to $5.72 (growth of 3.5% to 5.5% vs. $5.42 in 2025) and narrowed guidance for the year.
Negative Updates
Oral Tobacco Segment Profitability and Volume Weakness
Oral Tobacco Products adjusted OCI decreased 8% in Q2 and 4.2% for the first half. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased 8.5% in Q2 and 6% for H1; when adjusted for trade inventory movements, estimated declines were ~2% in Q2 and ~5.5% for H1. Management cited difficult prior-year comps and strategic investments behind on! PLUS trial offers.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
EPS Growth and Guidance Narrowing
Adjusted diluted EPS increased 2.8% to $1.48 in Q2 and 4.9% to $2.80 for the first half. Management raised the lower end of full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $5.61 to $5.72 (growth of 3.5% to 5.5% vs. $5.42 in 2025) and narrowed guidance for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Altria said it raised the lower end of its 2026 guidance and now expects adjusted diluted EPS of $5.61–$5.72 (a 3.5%–5.5% increase versus a $5.42 2025 base). Management pointed to strong H1 performance—Q2 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.48 (up 2.8%) and H1 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.80 (up 4.9%)—and said it narrowed full‑year guidance accordingly; it also expects export volumes and related FET (duty drawback) benefits to be higher in H2 with a more balanced impact across Q3–Q4. The company reiterated its capital‑return discipline after returning nearly $3.9 billion in H1 (about $3.6B in dividends and $335M in repurchases, 5.3M shares bought year‑to‑date), with $665M remaining on the repurchase program (expiring year‑end), and a strong balance sheet (debt/EBITDA 1.9x versus an approximately 2.0x target).Altria Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.87B | 20.14B | 20.44B | 20.50B | 20.69B | 21.11B |
| Gross Profit | 15.52B | 14.54B | 14.37B | 14.28B | 14.25B | 13.99B |
| EBITDA | 11.75B | 10.83B | 15.07B | 12.35B | 8.74B | 5.26B |
| Net Income | 7.97B | 6.95B | 11.26B | 8.13B | 5.76B | 2.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 33.37B | 35.02B | 35.18B | 38.57B | 36.95B | 39.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.37B | 4.48B | 3.13B | 3.69B | 4.03B | 4.54B |
| Total Debt | 24.58B | 25.71B | 24.93B | 26.23B | 26.68B | 28.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.99B | 38.47B | 37.37B | 42.06B | 40.88B | 41.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.67B | -3.50B | -2.24B | -3.54B | -3.97B | -1.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.30B | 9.07B | 8.61B | 9.09B | 8.05B | 8.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.64B | 9.29B | 8.75B | 9.29B | 8.26B | 8.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -477.00M | -341.00M | 2.17B | -1.28B | 782.00M | 1.21B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.44B | -7.62B | -11.49B | -8.37B | -9.54B | -10.03B |
Altria Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
72.99
Price Trends
70.68
Negative
69.16
Negative
64.21
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.78
Positive
37.13
Neutral
14.19
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 72.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.52, above the 50-day MA of 70.68, and above the 200-day MA of 64.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.19 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MO.
Altria Group Risk Analysis
Altria Group disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Altria Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Altria Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $2.36B | 16.33 | 6.14% | 4.93% | 66.52% | 56.14% | |
72 Outperform | $296.74B | 27.35 | -112.19% | 3.05% | 9.12% | 32.00% | |
69 Neutral | $123.13B | 14.43 | 13.38% | 5.32% | 4.47% | 117.22% | |
63 Neutral | $109.70B | 13.86 | -265.17% | 5.81% | 1.01% | -8.27% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $1.75B | 36.70 | 11.93% | 0.41% | 20.10% | -3.19% | |
51 Neutral | $1.11B | 58.91 | 1.33% | 6.12% | -3.04% | -81.53% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
MO
Altria Group
65.70
3.90
6.31%
BTI
British American Tobacco
57.06
2.51
4.60%
PM
Philip Morris
190.39
29.61
18.42%
UVV
Universal
44.77
-6.02
-11.86%
TPB
Turning Point Brands
87.34
-10.98
-11.17%
RLX
RLX Technology
1.94
-0.19
-8.92%
Altria Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Altria appoints new CEO and CFO amid transition
Positive
May 18, 2026
At Altria’s May 14, 2026 annual meeting, the board completed a leadership transition by appointing Salvatore Mancuso as chief executive officer and Heather A. Newman as executive vice president and chief financial officer, and setting compen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.