Altria Group (MO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $104.46B
• Dividend Yield: 7.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.1
• Beta (1Y): -0.04
• Revenue Growth: -0.96%
• EPS Growth: -11.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,654
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Tobacco
• EPS (TTM): 1.30
• Shares Outstanding: 1,678,671,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,866,683
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,298,666
• PEG Ratio: -0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): -27.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.05
• 1Y Price Target: $65.00
• Price Target Upside: 1.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $65.00 ▲(1.31% Upside)

MO’s score is primarily driven by strong profitability and free-cash-flow generation, but is held back by substantial leverage and negative equity that constrain balance-sheet flexibility. Valuation is supportive due to a moderate P/E and high dividend yield, while technical signals and the latest earnings call point to a broadly neutral setup with modest EPS growth guidance offset by volume declines and competitive pressures.

Positive Factors

High cash generation and margins

Consistently strong operating cash flow and near-parity free cash flow indicate durable cash conversion from core tobacco operations. This reliable cash engine supports dividends, buybacks and targeted investment, providing financial resilience even as revenues face headwinds.

Leading smokeable brand profitability

Dominant premium brands (e.g., Marlboro) and strong price realization drive very high operating margins in smokeables, producing predictable profit pools. Market leadership preserves pricing power and cash flow, cushioning the business against volume erosion over the medium term.

Progress in smoke-free portfolio and approvals

Regulatory authorizations and scaled shipments for ON/ON PLUS materially de‑risk product commercialization. A planned national rollout and international expansion create a structural growth path in rising smoke‑free categories that can partially offset combustible declines over coming years.

Negative Factors

Heavy leverage and negative equity

A capital structure with very large debt and a persistent shareholders' deficit constrains financial flexibility and heightens refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity. Large leverage limits strategic optionality and increases the risk that cash generation must prioritize debt service over growth investments.

Secular cigarette volume declines

Material and sustained declines in combustible volumes are a fundamental headwind to the core cash engine. Even with strong pricing, persistent volume erosion narrows absolute profit pools, forcing the company to rely on price, cost cuts, or diversification to preserve long‑term cash flow.

Product impairment & competitive smoke‑free pressure

A large noncash e‑vapor impairment plus aggressive promotional activity in pouches signal execution and competitive risk in growth categories. These issues can erode returns on new product investments and require continued spend or lower margins to regain share, challenging long‑term profitability.

Altria Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. The company provides cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars and pipe tobacco principally under the Black & Mild brand; and moist smokeless tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands, as well as provides on! oral nicotine pouches. It sells its tobacco products primarily to wholesalers, including distributors; and large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Altria generates revenue primarily through the sale of its tobacco products, which include cigarettes and smokeless tobacco. The company's smokeable products segment, led by Marlboro, represents a significant portion of its income, driven by both domestic sales and brand loyalty. Additionally, Altria earns revenue from its smokeless products, such as Copenhagen and Skoal, which have seen increased demand in recent years. The company has also invested in non-combustible product offerings, including e-vapor and heated tobacco products, which contribute to its revenue as consumer preferences shift. Key partnerships, such as its stake in Cronos Group, a cannabis company, and investments in innovative smoke-free alternatives, further enhance its revenue potential. Overall, Altria's earnings are influenced by regulatory factors, market trends, and its strategic focus on diversifying its product offerings.

Altria Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and dependable cash generation (TTM gross margin ~69.6%, net margin ~33.2%; TTM operating cash flow ~$9.29B and free cash flow ~$9.07B). Offsetting this is a highly leveraged balance sheet with persistently negative equity, which reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing/interest-rate sensitivity risk.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength, with very high margins in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (gross margin ~69.6% and net margin ~33.2%) and consistently strong operating profitability across the period. Revenue has been stable with modest growth in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (+3.67%) after a mostly flat-to-slightly-down stretch in prior years. The main weakness is earnings volatility: net margin peaked in 2024 (~55.1%) and normalized lower in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating less consistent bottom-line performance despite steady revenue.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and capital structure are the key concerns. Total debt is very large relative to the business (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt of ~$49.8B vs. assets of ~$35.0B), and equity is negative in every year shown (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) equity of about -$3.5B), which makes debt-to-equity and return-on-equity figures structurally weak/less informative and highlights a thin capital cushion. While assets have been fairly stable, the combination of high debt and negative equity materially reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises refinancing/interest-rate sensitivity risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and consistent. Operating cash flow is robust (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) ~$9.29B) and free cash flow is similarly strong (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) ~$9.07B), with free cash flow tracking net income closely (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) ~98%), suggesting solid earnings quality and good cash conversion. The main drawback is growth: free cash flow is slightly down in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (about -1.24%) after a mix of small declines and rebounds in prior years, indicating limited near-term momentum.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.14B	20.44B	20.50B	20.69B	21.11B
Gross Profit	17.44B	14.37B	14.28B	14.25B	13.99B
EBITDA	10.83B	15.07B	12.35B	8.74B	5.26B
Net Income	6.95B	11.26B	8.13B	5.76B	2.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.02B	35.18B	38.57B	36.95B	39.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.48B	3.13B	3.69B	4.03B	4.54B
Total Debt	25.71B	24.93B	26.23B	26.68B	28.04B
Total Liabilities	38.47B	37.37B	42.06B	40.88B	41.13B
Stockholders Equity	-3.50B	-2.24B	-3.54B	-3.97B	-1.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.07B	8.61B	9.09B	8.05B	8.24B
Operating Cash Flow	9.29B	8.75B	9.29B	8.26B	8.40B
Investing Cash Flow	-341.00M	2.17B	-1.28B	782.00M	1.21B
Financing Cash Flow	-7.62B	-11.49B	-8.37B	-9.54B	-10.03B

Altria Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 64.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 64.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.49, above the 50-day MA of 58.68, and above the 200-day MA of 59.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MO.

Altria Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RLX	76 Outperform	$2.74B	25.95	4.71%	0.35%	51.49%	21.43%
UVV	72 Outperform	$1.44B	13.03	7.72%	6.15%	3.01%	-7.14%
PM	69 Neutral	$280.10B	32.59	―	3.59%	7.72%	-12.45%
TPB	69 Neutral	$2.39B	44.04	22.54%	0.28%	6.71%	8.16%
MO	66 Neutral	$104.46B	15.12	―	7.02%	-0.96%	-11.42%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
BTI	59 Neutral	$131.81B	33.76	5.97%	5.22%	0.48%	―

Altria Group Corporate Events

Altria Files 2025 Consolidated Financial Statements Highlighting Leverage

Altria filed consolidated financial statements for the three years ended December 31, 2025, detailing its financial position as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, along with reports from its independent registered public accounting firm and management on the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting. The 2025 balance sheet showed total assets of $35.0 billion, roughly flat year over year, with higher cash and cash equivalents but lower goodwill and other intangible assets, while total liabilities rose to $38.5 billion, driven mainly by increased long-term debt and other liabilities, resulting in a larger stockholders’ deficit attributable to Altria. The filing, which will also form part of the company’s 2025 annual report, underscores a capital structure characterized by heavy leverage and substantial share repurchases that have pushed equity into deficit, a configuration that remains important for creditors, investors and other stakeholders assessing Altria’s financial flexibility and risk profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (MO) stock is a Buy with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Altria Group stock, see the MO Stock Forecast page.

Altria Expands Board, Names Mancuso Director and CEO

On January 28–29, 2026, Altria’s board expanded from 11 to 12 members and elected Salvatore Mancuso as a director effective January 29, 2026, ahead of his previously announced transition to Chief Executive Officer following the May 14, 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting. The company reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on January 29, 2026, highlighting a 4.4% increase in adjusted diluted EPS to $5.42 despite modest declines in net revenues and revenues net of excise taxes, while returning a total of $8 billion to shareholders through $7.0 billion in dividends and $1.0 billion in share repurchases, and issuing 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.56 to $5.72, implying 2.5% to 5.5% growth. Altria underscored progress in its smoke-free strategy, including late-2025 FDA marketing authorizations for several on! PLUS oral nicotine products and additional regulatory filings, continued execution of its multi-year Optimize & Accelerate cost-saving initiative targeting at least $600 million in cumulative savings by 2029, and steady advancement toward its 2028 enterprise goals such as maintaining adjusted operating margin above 60%, sustaining U.S. tobacco market leadership, growing dividends in the mid-single digits and expanding its presence in international oral nicotine markets and non-nicotine categories.

The most recent analyst rating on (MO) stock is a Buy with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Altria Group stock, see the MO Stock Forecast page.

Altria Group Announces CEO Retirement and Successor

On December 8, 2025, Altria Group announced the retirement of its CEO, William F. Gifford, Jr., effective May 14, 2026, after over 30 years of service. Salvatore Mancuso, currently the Executive Vice President and CFO, will succeed him as CEO, while Heather A. Newman will become the new CFO. This leadership transition is part of Altria’s long-term succession planning and aims to continue the company’s strategic vision of moving beyond smoking and achieving its 2028 Enterprise Goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (MO) stock is a Hold with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Altria Group stock, see the MO Stock Forecast page.

Altria Expands Share Repurchase Program to $2 Billion

On October 29, 2025, Altria’s Board of Directors authorized the expansion of its share repurchase program from $1 billion to $2 billion, set to expire on December 31, 2026. The company reported its third-quarter and nine-month results for 2025, highlighting resilience in its core tobacco businesses and advancements in its smoke-free portfolio. Altria also narrowed its full-year earnings guidance for 2025, expecting adjusted diluted EPS growth of 3.5% to 5.0% from 2024. The company continues to focus on returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases while pursuing long-term growth in smoke-free and non-nicotine products.

The most recent analyst rating on (MO) stock is a Sell with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Altria Group stock, see the MO Stock Forecast page.