tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Altria Group Inc (MO)
NYSE:MO
Advertisement

Altria Group (MO) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
18,219 Followers

Top Page

MO

Altria Group

(NYSE:MO)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$68.00
▲(2.94% Upside)
Altria's overall stock score reflects strong operational and cash flow performance along with solid technical indicators. The attractive valuation and dividend yield enhance its appeal. However, financial risks from high leverage and declining cigarette volumes present challenges, balanced by strategic growth in nicotine pouches.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow Generation
Altria's strong cash flow generation supports its ability to invest in growth opportunities and return capital to shareholders, enhancing long-term financial stability.
Nicotine Pouches Growth
The growth in nicotine pouches indicates successful diversification into reduced-risk products, aligning with industry trends and potentially offsetting declines in traditional tobacco.
Dividend Increase
The dividend increase reflects confidence in cash flow sustainability and commitment to shareholder returns, enhancing investor appeal and financial strength.
Negative Factors
Declining Cigarette Volumes
The decline in cigarette volumes poses a risk to Altria's core revenue stream, necessitating successful diversification to maintain long-term revenue stability.
High Leverage
High leverage and negative equity highlight financial risks that could limit strategic flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns.
Regulatory Challenges
Ongoing legal and regulatory challenges in the e-vapor market could hinder Altria's growth in reduced-risk products, impacting long-term strategic goals.

Altria Group (MO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Altria Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAltria Group, Inc. is a leading American corporation primarily engaged in the manufacture and sale of tobacco products. The company operates through several segments, including smokeable products, smokeless products, and wine. Altria's core products include well-known cigarette brands such as Marlboro, as well as smokeless tobacco products like Copenhagen and Skoal. In recent years, Altria has also expanded its portfolio to include heated tobacco products and e-vapor products, reflecting a strategic shift towards reduced-risk alternatives.
How the Company Makes MoneyAltria generates revenue predominantly through the sale of its tobacco products, which are subject to various federal and state taxes. The company's primary revenue stream comes from its smokeable products, particularly cigarettes, which account for a significant portion of its sales. Additionally, Altria earns revenue from its smokeless tobacco products and wines. The company's revenue model is heavily influenced by pricing strategies, including the adjustment of product prices in response to taxation and regulatory changes. Altria also engages in strategic partnerships and investments in emerging markets, particularly in reduced-risk products like IQOS, a heated tobacco product. These partnerships and investments aim to capture market share in the evolving landscape of tobacco consumption, contributing to the company's overall earnings.

Altria Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Smokeable Products Sticks Shipped
Smokeable Products Sticks Shipped
Indicates the volume of cigarette products distributed, reflecting consumer demand trends and market penetration for Altria's smokeable segment.
Chart InsightsAltria's smokeable products segment is experiencing a significant decline in cigarette volumes, with Marlboro and other premium brands seeing consistent decreases. Despite Marlboro's leadership in the premium segment, the decline aligns with broader industry trends and regulatory pressures. The earnings call highlighted a 10.2% drop in domestic cigarette volumes in Q2, emphasizing the need for strategic pivots. Altria is focusing on growth in the oral tobacco segment, particularly with on! nicotine pouches, which could offset some of the declines in traditional cigarette sales.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Altria Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a balanced sentiment with strong performance in certain segments like on! nicotine pouches and increased shareholder returns, contrasted by declines in cigarette volumes and challenges related to NJOY and patent disputes. The guidance increase indicates confidence in future performance.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Performance of on! Nicotine Pouches
on! nicotine pouches continued to drive growth in the oral tobacco segment with a reported shipment volume increase of 26.5% to 52.1 million cans year-over-year.
Increased Guidance for 2025
Altria raised the lower end of its 2025 EPS guidance range, now expecting adjusted diluted EPS to be between $5.35 and $5.45, representing a growth rate of 3% to 5% from a base of $5.19 in 2024.
Strong Shareholder Returns
Altria returned significant value to shareholders with approximately $3.5 billion in dividends and repurchased 10.4 million shares for $600 million in the first half of the year.
Growth in Oral Tobacco Products Segment
The oral tobacco products segment saw an impressive adjusted operating companies income (OCI) growth of 10.9% in the second quarter.
Negative Updates
Decline in Cigarette Volumes
Total smokeable products segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 10.2% in the second quarter and 11.9% for the first half.
Challenges with NJOY and Patent Dispute
Altria faced a setback as the Patent Trial and Appeal Board did not agree with their argument to invalidate JUUL's patent. However, they are exploring next steps and have completed the design of a modified NJOY ACE solution.
Increased Competition in Nicotine Pouch Market
Despite strong volume growth, on! lost share in the increasingly competitive nicotine pouch category.
Company Guidance
During the Altria Group's 2025 second quarter earnings call, several key metrics and projections were discussed. The company reported a robust adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) increase of 8.3% to $1.44 for the second quarter and a 7.2% increase for the first half. Altria raised the lower end of its 2025 guidance range, now expecting adjusted diluted EPS to be between $5.35 and $5.45, reflecting a growth rate of 3% to 5% from the 2024 base. The oral tobacco segment saw impressive growth, with on! nicotine pouches increasing shipment volume by 26.5% to 52.1 million cans, achieving a retail share of 8.7%. Additionally, the smokable products segment's adjusted operating companies income grew by 4.2% to $2.9 billion in the second quarter. The call also highlighted the company's efforts in the regulatory landscape and its ongoing advocacy for FDA enforcement against illicit e-vapor products. Altria continued to return value to shareholders with $3.5 billion in dividends and $600 million in share repurchases during the first half of the year, maintaining a strong balance sheet with a total debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.0x.

Altria Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Altria Group demonstrates strong operational efficiency and cash flow generation, highlighted by robust margins and significant free cash flow. However, declining revenue, high leverage, and negative stockholders' equity present financial risks that could impact long-term stability.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Altria Group's income statement shows a stable but declining revenue trend with a slight decrease from the previous year. The gross profit margin stands at a strong 71.63% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased significantly from 55.08% in 2024 to 43.39% in the TTM, reflecting potential challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT margin remains robust at 54.56%, demonstrating solid operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a concerning negative stockholders' equity of -3,256 million USD as of TTM, indicative of high leverage and potential risk. The debt-to-equity ratio is not applicable due to negative equity, but the high level of debt poses a risk of financial instability. The equity ratio is negative, emphasizing the need for capital restructuring to enhance financial health.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis highlights a strong free cash flow growth rate of 24.63% in the TTM, driven by effective capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.24, suggesting strong cash generation capabilities relative to net earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.22, reinforcing the company's ability to generate cash. However, significant financing cash outflows may affect future liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue20.26B20.44B20.50B20.69B21.11B20.84B
Gross Profit14.51B14.37B14.28B14.25B13.99B13.02B
EBITDA12.00B15.07B12.35B8.74B5.26B8.37B
Net Income8.79B11.26B8.13B5.76B2.48B4.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets32.33B35.18B38.57B36.95B39.52B47.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.29B3.13B3.69B4.03B4.54B4.95B
Total Debt24.72B24.93B26.23B26.68B28.04B29.47B
Total Liabilities35.54B37.37B42.06B40.88B41.13B44.49B
Stockholders Equity-3.26B-2.24B-3.54B-3.97B-1.61B2.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow10.73B8.61B9.09B8.05B8.24B8.15B
Operating Cash Flow10.88B8.75B9.29B8.26B8.40B8.38B
Investing Cash Flow-183.00M2.17B-1.28B782.00M1.21B-143.00M
Financing Cash Flow-10.22B-11.49B-8.37B-9.54B-10.03B-5.40B

Altria Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price66.06
Price Trends
50DMA
63.89
Positive
100DMA
60.75
Positive
200DMA
56.78
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.38
Positive
RSI
59.49
Neutral
STOCH
90.82
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.15, above the 50-day MA of 63.89, and above the 200-day MA of 56.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MO.

Altria Group Risk Analysis

Altria Group disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Altria Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Altria Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$1.37B13.406.52%5.82%4.11%-15.50%
71
Outperform
$110.32B12.69-503.31%6.24%-0.18%-10.69%
71
Outperform
$253.71B30.93-68.66%3.33%7.44%-6.72%
70
Outperform
$3.06B30.543.45%0.30%61.64%16.76%
70
Neutral
$1.74B40.4419.97%0.30%4.44%-5.94%
62
Neutral
$114.95B29.246.18%5.62%0.48%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MO
Altria Group
66.06
18.91
40.11%
BTI
British American Tobacco
53.08
19.02
55.84%
PM
Philip Morris
162.20
45.82
39.37%
UVV
Universal
55.87
6.74
13.72%
TPB
Turning Point Brands
98.86
56.42
132.94%
RLX
RLX Technology
2.63
0.85
47.75%

Altria Group Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Altria Group Issues $1 Billion in Senior Notes
Neutral
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Altria Group issued $1 billion in senior unsecured notes, split evenly between 4.500% Notes due 2030 and 5.250% Notes due 2035. This financial move, guaranteed by Philip Morris USA, aims to strengthen Altria’s capital structure and maintain its competitive positioning in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (MO) stock is a Hold with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Altria Group stock, see the MO Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Altria Group Extends $3 Billion Credit Agreement
Neutral
Jul 23, 2025

On July 23, 2025, Altria Group, Inc. announced an extension of its $3.0 billion senior unsecured 5-year revolving credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Citibank, N.A., extending the expiration date from October 24, 2028, to October 24, 2029. This extension reflects Altria’s ongoing financial strategy and relationships with financial institutions, potentially impacting its liquidity management and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (MO) stock is a Hold with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Altria Group stock, see the MO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Altria Group’s Shareholders Approve 2025 Incentive Plans
Neutral
May 19, 2025

Altria Group announced the retirement of Steven D’Ambrosia as Vice President and Controller effective July 31, 2025, and the election of Katie F. Patterson to the role, effective August 1, 2025. Patterson, who has been with Altria since 2013, will receive a salary and incentives consistent with her new position. Additionally, during its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 15, 2025, Altria’s shareholders approved the 2025 Performance Incentive Plan and the 2025 Stock Compensation Plan for Non-Employee Directors, which are designed to provide annual and long-term incentives to eligible employees and directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (MO) stock is a Sell with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Altria Group stock, see the MO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025