Turning Point Brands (TPB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.78B
• Dividend Yield: 0.29%
• Average Volume (3M): 446.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 4.44%
• EPS Growth: -5.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 310
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Tobacco
• EPS (TTM): 0.79
• Shares Outstanding: 18,024,761
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 412,759
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 446,002
• PEG Ratio: -6.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.99
• 1Y Price Target: $104.00
• Price Target Upside: 5.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: $102.00 ▲(3.08% Upside)

Turning Point Brands has a strong earnings call performance and positive technical momentum, which are significant strengths. However, high valuation metrics and financial leverage pose risks. The company's ability to manage these challenges while capitalizing on growth opportunities in the Modern Oral segment will be crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Earnings

TPB delivered a strong 2Q beat and raised its outlook on modern oral revenue and consolidated EBITDA as a result of a better than expected 1H.

Growth Opportunities

The nicotine pouch opportunity could drive significant scale and upside to revenue over the long-term.

Negative Factors

Valuation

Much of the good news, notably expectations around the nicotine pouch opportunity, already appear to be embedded in valuation.

Turning Point Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products. The company operates through three segments: Zig-Zag Products, Stoker's Products, and NewGen Products. The Zig-Zag Products segment markets and distributes rolling papers, tubes, finished cigars, make-your-own cigar wraps, and related products under the Zig-Zag brand. The Stoker's Products segment manufactures and markets moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products under the Stoker's, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River brands. The NewGen Products segment markets and distributes cannabidiol isolate, liquid vapor products, and other products without tobacco and/or nicotine to individual consumers through VaporFi B2C online platform, as well as non-traditional retail through VaporBeast. It sells its products to wholesale distributors and retail merchants in the independent and chain convenience stores, tobacco outlets, food stores, mass merchandising, and drug stores. The company was formerly known as North Atlantic Holding Company, Inc. and changed its name to Turning Point Brands, Inc. in November 2015. Turning Point Brands, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Turning Point Brands generates revenue through multiple streams. The company primarily earns from the sale of smokeless tobacco products and smoking accessories, which include rolling papers and other smoking-related items. Its New Generation Products segment, which encompasses vapor and CBD products, has been a significant growth area, capitalizing on the increasing consumer shift towards alternative nicotine delivery systems. TPB also benefits from strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers, enhancing its market reach and product accessibility. Additionally, the company invests in brand development and marketing to strengthen customer loyalty and drive sales across its diverse product lines.

Turning Point Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Turning Point Brands demonstrates solid financial health with strong revenue and profit growth, robust cash flow, and improved equity ratios. However, high leverage remains a concern, requiring careful management to mitigate risks. Overall, the company is well-positioned for future growth, supported by strong operational performance and effective cash management.

Income Statement

Turning Point Brands shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 47%, and a solid net profit margin improvement from 2.8% in 2022 to 9% in TTM. Revenue growth is positive, with a 29.2% increase from 2022 to 2024 and a further 29.2% from 2024 to TTM, indicating robust expansion. EBIT and EBITDA margins have remained stable, supporting a strong operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.48 in TTM, reflecting significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, the equity ratio improved to 36% in TTM, indicating better equity health. Return on equity has improved from lows of 10.4% in 2022 to 20.7% in TTM, demonstrating enhanced shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong relative to net income, with a ratio of 1.46 in TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.31 in TTM, indicating robust cash generation. Free cash flow growth is positive, with a 145% increase from 2022 to 2024, albeit a slight decrease to TTM, suggesting overall healthy cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	474.27M	360.66M	405.39M	415.01M	445.47M	405.11M
Gross Profit	232.35M	201.56M	203.24M	205.54M	217.83M	189.64M
EBITDA	93.54M	84.60M	82.69M	40.80M	90.55M	67.52M
Net Income	43.65M	39.81M	38.46M	11.64M	52.06M	38.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	595.79M	493.35M	569.36M	572.11M	601.56M	489.33M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	109.92M	46.16M	117.89M	106.40M	128.32M	41.77M
Total Debt	301.48M	261.27M	377.99M	417.35M	427.51M	306.08M
Total Liabilities	370.96M	302.97M	417.35M	458.73M	467.84M	358.49M
Stockholders Equity	218.58M	187.98M	150.98M	111.64M	131.40M	126.79M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	52.27M	62.44M	61.17M	22.59M	62.06M	37.54M
Operating Cash Flow	60.22M	67.06M	66.88M	30.27M	68.22M	43.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-11.16M	-10.51M	-5.91M	-18.79M	-58.84M	-64.82M
Financing Cash Flow	-81.22M	-128.15M	-49.51M	-43.30M	57.07M	-29.34M

Turning Point Brands Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 98.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 98.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.55, above the 50-day MA of 83.35, and above the 200-day MA of 68.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 68.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TPB.

Turning Point Brands Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UVV	73 Outperform	$1.37B	13.59	7.20%	5.92%	4.11%	-15.50%
TPB	70 Neutral	$1.78B	40.62	26.05%	0.29%	4.44%	-5.94%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.46B	14.51	-3.60%	3.15%	2.60%	-5.31%
ISPR	49 Neutral	$171.44M	―	-110.47%	―	-1.69%	-106.13%
XXII	38 Underperform	$6.50M	―	-616.13%	―	-49.46%	99.12%
GNLN	38 Underperform	$4.62M	―	-149.74%	―	-72.92%	85.19%
KAVL	31 Underperform	$11.22M	―	-88.92%	―	-86.91%	59.47%

Turning Point Brands Corporate Events

Turning Point Brands Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

Turning Point Brands, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 6, 2025, where key decisions were made regarding the election of directors, an amendment to limit liability of certain officers, the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accountant for 2025, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. These decisions are pivotal for the company’s governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its operational stability and stakeholder confidence.

Turning Point Brands Reports Strong Q1 2025 Growth

Turning Point Brands announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting a 28.1% increase in net sales to $106.4 million compared to the previous year. The company saw significant growth in its Stoker’s Products segment, with net sales rising by 62.7%, and Modern Oral sales reaching $22.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 12.0% to $27.7 million, and the company reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance while raising its sales guidance for nicotine pouches. These results suggest a strong market position and potential for continued growth, particularly in the Modern Oral segment.