Turning Point Brands (TPB)
NYSE:TPB
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Turning Point Brands
(NYSE:TPB)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$75.00
▲(0.42% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is supported primarily by improving financial strength (notable deleveraging and solid profitability) and a positive earnings-call outlook driven by rapid Modern Oral growth and defined guidance. This is meaningfully offset by very weak technicals (price below all major moving averages with bearish momentum) and a relatively expensive P/E with only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Modern Oral Category Momentum
Sustained, rapid Modern Oral adoption shifts revenue mix toward a high-growth product category. Becoming a third of sales in a year supports durable top-line expansion, scale benefits in distribution and marketing, and creates a new structural revenue base less reliant on legacy segments.
Negative Factors
Weakened Cash Conversion
A drop in cash conversion signals heavier working-capital needs or timing effects that can strain cash generation. If persistent, this reduces free cash available for debt paydown, marketing or manufacturing build-out, increasing execution risk during a growth phase.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Modern Oral Category Momentum
Sustained, rapid Modern Oral adoption shifts revenue mix toward a high-growth product category. Becoming a third of sales in a year supports durable top-line expansion, scale benefits in distribution and marketing, and creates a new structural revenue base less reliant on legacy segments.
Read all positive factors
Turning Point Brands (TPB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.43B
Dividend Yield0.28%
Average Volume (3M)527.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.1
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth6.71%
EPS Growth8.16%
CountryUS
Employees310
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryTobacco
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.42
Shares Outstanding19,141,209
10 Day Avg. Volume578,629
30 Day Avg. Volume527,628
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)5.60
Price to Sales (P/S)4.29
P/FCF Ratio45.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$130.00Price Target Upside74.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$514.02M
Turning Point Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products. The company operates through three segments: Zig-Zag Products, Stoker's Products, and NewGen Products. The Zig-Zag Produc...
How the Company Makes Money
TPB makes money primarily by selling consumer tobacco and nicotine products to wholesale and retail customers, generating revenue from the volume of products shipped and the prices it is able to realize for its brands. Its core revenue streams are...
Turning Point Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial momentum driven by rapid Modern Oral (white pouch) growth, meaningful revenue and adjusted EBITDA gains, healthy cash on hand, and clear FY2026 guidance for Modern Oral. Management signaled successful execution on distribution, sales force expansion, and near-term U.S. manufacturing qualification. Offsetting items include elevated SG&A from front-loaded promotional and marketing investments, a decline in Zig-Zag revenue (as expected), tariff-related margin pressure in the quarter, and some short-term uncertainty from lumpy investments and ongoing PMTA and tax-related costs. On balance, the positive operational and financial progress — particularly the outsized growth in Modern Oral and conservative financial position — outweighs the near-term margin pressures and investment-driven uncertainties.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue increased 29% year-over-year to $121.0 million in Q4 2025, driven primarily by Modern Oral growth ($41.3 million net revenue).
Negative Updates
Higher SG&A and Investment-Driven Expense
Reported SG&A was $47.7 million in Q4, up $3.1 million sequentially due to planned sales & marketing investments behind Modern Oral and increased outbound freight charges, pressuring near-term operating leverage.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue increased 29% year-over-year to $121.0 million in Q4 2025, driven primarily by Modern Oral growth ($41.3 million net revenue).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management initiated 2026 Modern Oral guidance at gross sales of $220–240 million and net sales of $180–190 million, and expects Q1 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $24–27 million (inclusive of increased white pouch sales and marketing investments); modeling assumptions include an effective tax rate of 23%–26%, a 2026 CapEx budget of $4–5 million (exclusive of Modern Oral projects) and an additional $3–5 million planned to support Modern Oral PMTAs. For context, Q4 revenue was $121.0 million (up 29% YoY) including Modern Oral net revenue of $41.3 million, Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $30.0 million (24.8% margin), gross margin was 55.9%, SG&A was $47.7 million, quarter-end cash was $222.8 million, Q4 free cash flow was $19.2 million, and Modern Oral net sales grew 266% YoY (gross sales +337%) and now represent 34% of consolidated net sales (vs. 12% a year ago).Turning Point Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 463.06M | 360.66M | 325.06M | 321.23M | 445.47M |
| Gross Profit | 264.31M | 201.56M | 182.94M | 177.83M | 217.83M |
| EBITDA | 108.03M | 94.05M | 88.64M | 82.63M | 98.59M |
| Net Income | 58.16M | 39.81M | 38.46M | 11.64M | 52.06M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 763.75M | 493.35M | 569.36M | 572.11M | 601.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 222.76M | 46.16M | 117.89M | 106.40M | 128.32M |
| Total Debt | 308.97M | 261.27M | 377.99M | 420.45M | 430.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 391.77M | 302.97M | 417.35M | 458.73M | 467.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 354.30M | 187.98M | 150.98M | 111.64M | 131.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 43.84M | 62.44M | 61.17M | 22.59M | 62.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 57.37M | 67.06M | 66.88M | 30.27M | 68.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -31.67M | -10.51M | -5.91M | -18.79M | -58.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 148.27M | -128.15M | -49.51M | -43.30M | 57.07M |
Turning Point Brands Technical Analysis
Negative
74.69
Price Trends
109.00
Negative
107.12
Negative
98.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.88
Positive
26.73
Positive
29.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 74.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.23, below the 50-day MA of 109.00, and below the 200-day MA of 98.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.73 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPB.
Turning Point Brands Risk Analysis
Turning Point Brands disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Turning Point Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Turning Point Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.61B | 22.23 | 5.73% | 0.35% | 51.49% | 21.43% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $1.43B | 34.13 | 20.84% | 0.28% | 6.71% | 8.16% | |
56 Neutral | $1.31B | 9.94 | 5.81% | 6.15% | 3.01% | -7.14% | |
44 Neutral | $1.42M | -0.19 | -133.50% | ― | -34.81% | 99.30% | |
42 Neutral | $104.84M | -6.07 | -2384.12% | ― | -20.13% | -88.66% | |
39 Underperform | $216.57K | -0.10 | -247.42% | ― | -88.85% | 68.28% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
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35.77%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.