Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.11B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.17M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.00
• Revenue Growth: 29.45%
• EPS Growth: -3.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 527
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 65,319,850
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,878,991
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,171,970
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.66
• 1Y Price Target: $43.80
• Price Target Upside: 57.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.30B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(0.83% Upside)

Pagaya Technologies Ltd's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with growth in revenue and cash flow but challenges in profitability and leverage. The positive sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting strong growth and strategic initiatives, provides a favorable outlook. However, technical indicators and valuation suggest caution due to bearish momentum and a negative P/E ratio.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates effective business strategies and market demand, supporting long-term financial health and expansion.

Partnership Expansion

Expanding partnerships enhances market reach and diversifies revenue streams, strengthening competitive positioning and growth potential.

Cash Flow Management

Improved cash flow management provides financial flexibility and supports investment in growth initiatives, enhancing long-term sustainability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and can limit strategic options, potentially impacting long-term financial stability and growth.

Profitability Challenges

Negative profit margins indicate ongoing profitability issues, which can hinder reinvestment and long-term value creation for shareholders.

Credit-Related Losses

Credit-related losses highlight risk management challenges, potentially affecting financial performance and investor confidence over the long term.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) is a financial technology company specializing in the development of advanced machine learning algorithms and data analytics to enhance the efficiency of the asset management and credit markets. The company operates primarily within the fintech sector, providing innovative solutions that optimize the process of credit underwriting and investment management. Pagaya's core products include AI-driven investment strategies and risk assessment tools that enable institutional investors and financial institutions to make data-driven decisions in real-time.

How the Company Makes Money

Pagaya generates revenue through a combination of asset management fees, performance fees, and partnerships with financial institutions. Its primary revenue stream comes from managing investment portfolios for clients, where it charges management fees based on the assets under management (AUM). Additionally, the company earns performance fees tied to the investment returns it achieves for its clients. Pagaya has established significant partnerships with banks and credit unions, which help broaden its reach and facilitate access to a larger pool of capital. These collaborations not only enhance its credibility in the market but also contribute to increased transaction volumes, thereby boosting its overall earnings.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pagaya Technologies Ltd shows growth in revenue and cash flow, but faces challenges in profitability and leverage. The company needs to improve its net profit margins and manage its debt levels to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Pagaya Technologies Ltd shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has achieved a positive revenue growth rate of 7.15% in the TTM, indicating a growing top line. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -24.96%, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 40.84%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest at 11.61% and 14.34% respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.08, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -75.34%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 26.21%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 59.34% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.48, which is below 1, suggesting that operating cash flow is not fully covering net losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.87, indicating better cash flow management relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.23B	1.00B	772.81M	685.41M	445.87M	91.74M
Gross Profit	359.33M	406.90M	263.87M	234.33M	213.54M	42.66M
EBITDA	155.49M	67.89M	-44.51M	-308.73M	-33.72M	14.27M
Net Income	-190.83M	-401.41M	-128.44M	-302.32M	-91.15M	14.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.46B	1.29B	1.21B	1.05B	590.26M	204.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	264.77M	195.72M	188.97M	310.80M	200.94M	62.63M
Total Debt	487.79M	680.81M	412.58M	212.26M	37.91M	0.00
Total Liabilities	889.44M	849.53M	542.63M	279.66M	105.86M	10.15M
Stockholders Equity	438.30M	326.49M	559.72M	553.52M	308.34M	109.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	186.91M	48.78M	-10.61M	-62.41M	43.19M	3.16M
Operating Cash Flow	190.89M	66.52M	9.58M	-40.00M	49.81M	4.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-245.50M	-498.64M	-412.69M	-265.42M	-140.74M	-122.76M
Financing Cash Flow	48.78M	436.69M	289.10M	437.92M	289.62M	119.50M

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.18, below the 50-day MA of 31.80, and above the 200-day MA of 21.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGY.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DOCN	73 Outperform	$4.73B	20.29	―	―	14.20%	204.86%
ODD	71 Outperform	$2.21B	22.27	30.36%	―	26.12%	28.03%
PAGS	68 Neutral	$3.12B	7.62	14.59%	1.37%	0.09%	5.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
AVPT	61 Neutral	$2.73B	―	0.58%	―	24.71%	99.52%
PGY	52 Neutral	$2.11B	―	-42.38%	―	29.45%	-3.73%
WRD	41 Neutral	$3.11B	―	―	―	―	―

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events

Pagaya Technologies Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a global technology company specializing in artificial intelligence infrastructure for the financial ecosystem, offering consumer credit and real estate solutions through its extensive data network and AI-driven approach.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Reports Strong Earnings Growth

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.’s recent earnings call exuded a sense of optimism, underscored by robust growth in network volume and profitability. The company showcased significant strides in partner onboarding and funding diversification, despite facing some non-recurring costs and credit-related losses. Overall, the strategic initiatives and performance metrics suggest a positive trajectory for the company.

Pagaya Technologies Reports Record Q3 2025 Results

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported record financial results for the third quarter and nine months ended 2025, with significant year-over-year increases in GAAP net income, adjusted EBITDA, and total revenue. The company raised its full-year guidance for total revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and GAAP net income, highlighting strong performance across its Auto and Point-of-Sale verticals. Pagaya also expanded its financial partnerships and credit facilities, enhancing its market position and operational efficiency. These developments underscore Pagaya’s strategic growth and commitment to bridging Main Street and Wall Street, benefiting stakeholders by improving capital efficiency and expanding its financial ecosystem.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Hold with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Refinances Credit Facility for Growth

On October 1, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced the refinancing of its revolving credit facility by terminating the 2024 Credit Agreement and entering into a new agreement with BMO BANK N.A. and other lenders. The new facility, amounting to $132 million, significantly reduces Pagaya’s cost of debt capital by lowering the interest rate by nearly 35%. This expansion more than doubles the previous facility and reflects strong demand from both new and existing lenders, enhancing Pagaya’s financial stability and positioning it for sustained growth amidst market volatility.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.