Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)
NASDAQ:PGY
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd
(NASDAQ:PGY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(13.41% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:05/09/26
PGY scores well on financial performance, led by a clear profitability and cash-flow turnaround, though tempered by a mid-range balance sheet due to historical leverage/volatility. The earnings call supports the outlook with raised guidance and continued GAAP profitability, partially offset by cost-of-capital pressure and fair-value/investment losses. Technicals are positive in the short term but still below longer-term moving averages, and valuation appears reasonable with a ~10.4 P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF conversion
Pagaya’s trailing‑12‑month operating cash flow and free cash flow are both strong and closely track reported earnings. Durable cash conversion reduces reliance on external funding, supports reinvestment in platform and product expansion, and provides a buffer through credit cycles.
Negative Factors
Historical leverage and ROE volatility
Although leverage has improved recently, the company’s history of elevated debt ratios and wide swings in returns indicates balance sheet sensitivity to market and credit shocks. Persistent volatility can constrain strategic flexibility and require higher liquidity buffers during stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF conversion
Pagaya’s trailing‑12‑month operating cash flow and free cash flow are both strong and closely track reported earnings. Durable cash conversion reduces reliance on external funding, supports reinvestment in platform and product expansion, and provides a buffer through credit cycles.
Read all positive factors
Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.4
Beta (1Y)2.21
Revenue Growth21.65%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees527
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding71,237,860
10 Day Avg. Volume3,639,467
30 Day Avg. Volume3,000,047
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.17
Price to Book (P/B)3.41
Price to Sales (P/S)1.30
P/FCF Ratio7.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.00Price Target Upside86.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.48B
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners t...
How the Company Makes Money
Pagaya makes money primarily by providing technology and related services that support consumer loan origination and funding through its network of partners and capital markets participants.
1) Fees tied to loan origination and platform usage: Pa...
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Network Volume
Measures the total value of transactions processed through the network, indicating the platform's scale, user engagement, and potential for growth.
Measures the total value of transactions processed through the network, indicating the platform's scale, user engagement, and potential for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPagaya Technologies Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial momentum: sustained GAAP profitability (fifth consecutive quarter), double-digit revenue growth, improved margins and strong adjusted EBITDA, record auto performance, successful capital raises and important capital‑market milestones (Fitch AAA, first auto securitization, resecuritizations providing recycleable capital), and an active partner onboarding pipeline. The company is managing market volatility prudently by diversifying funding across ABS and other channels and maintaining disciplined underwriting. Notable negatives include a $38M investment loss, downward fair‑value adjustments, FRLPC margin compression driven by higher cost of capital, ongoing private credit market repricing risk, and intentionally tighter underwriting that keeps application-to-volume conversion below 1%. Overall, the positive operational and capital‑markets achievements and upgraded guidance outweigh the financial and market headwinds discussed.Positive Updates
Fifth Consecutive Quarter of GAAP Profitability
GAAP net income of $25 million for 1Q26 (fifth straight profitable quarter), up $17 million YoY; GAAP net income margin improved to 8% from 3% in 1Q25.
Negative Updates
Losses and Fair‑Value Downward Adjustments
Gains and losses on investments in loans and securities included a loss of $38 million this quarter; fair value of the overall investment portfolio and allowances was adjusted downward by $21 million (compared to a $50 million adjustment in prior quarter).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Fifth Consecutive Quarter of GAAP Profitability
GAAP net income of $25 million for 1Q26 (fifth straight profitable quarter), up $17 million YoY; GAAP net income margin improved to 8% from 3% in 1Q25.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
After reporting Q1 revenue of $318M, FRLPC of $121M, adjusted EBITDA of $94M and GAAP net income of $25M, Pagaya guided Q2 2026 network volume of $2.875B–$3.075B, total revenue & other income of $345M–$365M, adjusted EBITDA of $100M–$115M and GAAP net income of $25M–$45M; for full-year 2026 it expects network volume of $11.45B–$13.0B (raising the lower bound by ~$200M), total revenue of $1.4B–$1.575B, adjusted EBITDA of $420M–$460M, GAAP net income of $110M–$160M, assumes FRLPC margin of ~4%–5% for the year and that the cost of capital remains elevated at current levels.Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.30B | 1.26B | 1.00B | 772.81M | 685.41M | 445.87M |
| Gross Profit | 536.93M | 512.17M | 406.90M | 263.87M | 234.33M | 213.54M |
| EBITDA | 181.52M | 81.70M | 67.89M | -44.51M | -308.73M | -33.72M |
| Net Income | 98.19M | 81.39M | -401.41M | -128.44M | -302.32M | -91.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.65B | 1.55B | 1.29B | 1.21B | 1.05B | 590.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 380.03M | 288.35M | 195.72M | 188.97M | 310.80M | 200.94M |
| Total Debt | 474.99M | 922.80M | 680.81M | 412.58M | 212.26M | 37.91M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 990.56M | 849.53M | 542.63M | 279.66M | 105.86M |
| Stockholders Equity | 529.31M | 480.02M | 326.49M | 559.72M | 553.52M | 308.34M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 234.07M | 224.72M | 43.28M | -10.61M | -62.41M | 43.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 247.38M | 238.62M | 66.52M | 9.58M | -40.00M | 49.81M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -298.74M | -309.71M | -498.64M | -412.69M | -159.95M | -140.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 197.62M | 129.60M | 436.69M | 289.10M | 332.45M | 289.62M |
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.99
Price Trends
12.18
Positive
17.44
Negative
23.96
Negative
Market Momentum
0.47
Negative
70.12
Negative
93.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.20, above the 50-day MA of 12.18, and below the 200-day MA of 23.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.12 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PGY.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Risk Analysis
Pagaya Technologies Ltd disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pagaya Technologies Ltd reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $2.42B | 33.25 | 10.20% | ― | 27.12% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $1.25B | 10.40 | 21.65% | ― | 21.65% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $17.11B | 60.06 | -214.15% | ― | 17.61% | 119.62% | |
68 Neutral | $837.95M | 98.15 | 30.38% | ― | 25.16% | 10.96% | |
64 Neutral | $2.94B | 7.44 | 14.40% | 1.40% | 4.00% | 3.63% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
50 Neutral | $2.58B | -9.00 | -24.09% | ― | ― | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd
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-1.04%
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Pagaya Announces CFO Transition Amid Strong Quarterly Results
Positive
May 7, 2026
Pagaya reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, 2026, posting GAAP net income of $25 million, up $17 million year over year, on total revenue and other income of $318 million, a 10% increase. Network volume rose 9% to $2.6 billion, adjusted E...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Pagaya Technologies Reports Record Q4 and 2025 Profitability
Positive
Feb 9, 2026
Pagaya Technologies reported on February 9, 2026 that it achieved record profitability for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, as GAAP net income attributable to shareholders rose to $34 million for the quarter and $81 millio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.