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Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY)
NASDAQ:PGY
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) AI Stock Analysis

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PGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd

(NASDAQ:PGY)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$32.00
▼(-0.62%Downside)
Pagaya Technologies Ltd's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and positive earnings call sentiment, reflecting confidence in future growth. However, financial performance is hampered by high leverage and profitability issues, and the valuation remains challenging due to a negative P/E ratio. The positive corporate events further support growth potential, but caution is advised due to financial risks.
Positive Factors
Earnings
PGY's announcement of preliminary 2Q25 operating results that were better-than-expected provided the validation that many investors had been seeking for sustained profitable growth.
Financial Performance
PGY has achieved GAAP net income profitability – it reached that milestone in 1Q25.
Growth Strategy
The company is expected to drive additional share price gains as it continues to grow across the personal, auto, and point-of-sale loan verticals, leveraging AI to credit underwriting at scale.
Negative Factors
Network Volume
The company's network volume was below management's guidance range due to lower volume from its lower-margin single-family rental business.
Revenue Source
The company pulled back on SFR volume, which was relatively immaterial to revenue and resulted in network volume being below expectations.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.
How the Company Makes MoneyPagaya Technologies Ltd generates revenue primarily through partnerships with financial institutions, where it applies its AI-driven models to enhance credit assessment and underwriting processes. The company earns fees from these institutions by improving their lending efficiencies and expanding their credit offerings, leading to increased loan origination volumes. Additionally, Pagaya manages investment portfolios for institutional investors, earning management fees based on the assets under management (AUM). Significant partnerships with banks and fintech companies contribute substantially to its earnings, as these collaborations allow Pagaya to scale its solutions across various financial products and markets.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue From Fees
Revenue From Fees
Shows the income generated from service fees, highlighting the company's ability to monetize its platform and sustain its business model.
Chart InsightsPagaya Technologies is experiencing robust growth in revenue from fees, with a consistent upward trajectory over recent quarters. This aligns with the company's earnings call, which highlighted an 18% year-over-year revenue increase and a 26% rise in fee revenue less production costs. The strategic expansion in lending partnerships and a diversified funding structure are driving this momentum, while the achievement of positive GAAP net income underscores operational efficiency. Despite minor challenges in network volume, the company projects continued revenue growth and profitability improvements for 2025.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 180.24%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong positive sentiment with significant achievements in revenue growth, profitability, and strategic partnerships, despite minor challenges in network volume.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Growth
Pagaya Technologies achieved an 18% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching an annualized run rate of nearly $1.2 billion. Fee revenue less production costs (FRLPC) grew by 26%.
Positive GAAP Net Income
The company achieved a positive GAAP net income of $8 million, ahead of guidance and for the first time as a public company.
Significant Increase in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA grew by 100% year-over-year to an annualized equivalent of approximately $320 million.
Expansion in Lending Partnerships
The company doubled the number of lending partners with at least $100 million in volume this quarter compared to a year ago.
Diversified Funding Structure
Pagaya secured a forward flow agreement with Blue Owl Capital to purchase up to $2.4 billion in loans over 24 months, enhancing its liquidity and funding strategy.
Negative Updates
Network Volume Slightly Below Guidance
Network volume was slightly below guidance at $2.4 billion due to lower Single-Family Rental (SFR) volume.
Company Guidance
During the Pagaya Technologies Q1 2025 earnings call, the management highlighted key performance metrics and provided guidance for the upcoming quarters. The company reported a notable 18% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching an annualized run rate of nearly $1.2 billion. Fee revenue less production costs (FRLPC) grew by 26%, reaching an annualized run rate of over $460 million. The company's efficient cost structure led to a 100% growth in adjusted EBITDA, amounting to approximately $320 million on an annualized basis. For the first time as a public company, Pagaya achieved positive GAAP net income of $8 million, one quarter ahead of schedule. The guidance for Q2 2025 includes a network volume between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion, with total revenue anticipated to be between $290 million and $310 million. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be in the range of $75 million to $90 million, and GAAP net income is expected to be between breakeven and $10 million. For the full year 2025, the company has increased its GAAP net income guidance to a range of $10 million to $45 million, with total revenue projected between $1.175 billion and $1.3 billion.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Pagaya Technologies Ltd demonstrates strong revenue growth and effective cost management with a solid gross profit margin. However, profitability remains a concern due to continued net losses and high leverage, as reflected in its balance sheet. While cash flow generation has been positive, indicating potential for financial resilience, high debt levels present a risk. Improvement in operational efficiencies and reduction of leverage is needed to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
62
Positive
The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a revenue growth rate of 4.5% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) compared to the previous year. Despite this, the company is still struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -35.4% and negative net income. Gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 41.0%, suggesting effective cost management in production. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are low at 10.2% and 10.5%, respectively, indicating challenges in covering operational expenses and achieving profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.02, which indicates significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -110.9%, due to losses, which suggests issues in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio of 26.2% is moderate, indicating a balanced level of equity financing compared to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a leveraged position with potential risk due to high debt levels.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Free cash flow has shown impressive growth at 37.1% in the TTM period, indicating improvements in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting the company's ongoing net losses, but operating cash flow has been positive, which is a favorable sign. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, given the negative net income, yet the positive free cash flow suggests effective capital management. Overall, cash flow health shows positive trends despite net income challenges.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.00B772.81M685.41M445.87M91.74M
Gross Profit406.90M263.87M234.33M213.54M42.66M
EBITDA67.89M-24.40M-270.08M-33.72M14.00M
Net Income-401.41M-128.44M-292.77M-69.52M19.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.29B1.21B1.05B590.26M204.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments195.72M188.97M310.80M200.94M62.63M
Total Debt680.81M412.58M212.26M37.91M2.47M
Total Liabilities849.53M553.01M279.66M412.91M116.13M
Stockholders Equity326.49M559.72M553.52M1.29M3.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow48.78M-10.61M-62.41M43.19M3.16M
Operating Cash Flow66.52M9.58M-40.00M49.81M4.26M
Investing Cash Flow-498.64M-412.69M-265.42M-140.74M-122.76M
Financing Cash Flow436.69M289.10M437.92M289.62M119.50M

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price32.20
Price Trends
50DMA
20.23
Positive
100DMA
15.55
Positive
200DMA
13.17
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.57
Negative
RSI
79.49
Negative
STOCH
84.75
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.18, above the 50-day MA of 20.23, and above the 200-day MA of 13.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.49 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PGY.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Risk Analysis

Pagaya Technologies Ltd disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pagaya Technologies Ltd reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$1.34B28.635.32%-2.09%76.96%
73
Outperform
$946.68M6.120.63%-35.88%4611.09%
71
Outperform
$1.04B-15.69%8.38%-278.88%
70
Outperform
$2.55B-77.37%25.84%-248.65%
68
Neutral
$1.33B-55.90%12.76%16.97%
63
Neutral
£505.90M23.87-8.45%173.32%4.53%-18.72%
52
Neutral
$665.59M-4.06%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd
32.20
17.25
115.38%
VRNT
Verint Systems
22.12
-13.13
-37.25%
YEXT
Yext
8.48
2.63
44.96%
IIIV
I3 Verticals
28.50
3.51
14.05%
CGNT
Cognyte Software
9.25
1.64
21.55%
BASE
Couchbase
24.25
4.41
22.23%

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Pagaya Technologies Prices $500M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Jul 23, 2025

On July 23, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Pagaya US Holdings Company LLC, has priced a $500 million offering of 8.875% senior unsecured notes due in 2030. The offering size was increased from $450 million due to strong demand and is set to settle on July 28, 2025. The proceeds will be used to repay existing credit facilities and secured borrowings, with the remainder for general corporate purposes. The notes will accrue interest semi-annually and are guaranteed by Pagaya and its subsidiaries, excluding Pagaya US.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Pagaya Technologies Announces $450M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Jul 22, 2025

On July 22, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Pagaya US Holding Company LLC, plans to offer $450 million in unsecured senior notes due 2030 in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers. The proceeds will be used to repay existing credit facilities and secured borrowings, with the remainder for general corporate purposes. The notes will be guaranteed by Pagaya and its subsidiaries, but they will not be registered under the Securities Act, limiting their sale to qualified buyers.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Pagaya Technologies Expects Strong Q2 2025 Results
Positive
Jul 17, 2025

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that as of December 31, 2025, it will be classified as a ‘large accelerated filer,’ losing its status as an emerging growth company and requiring compliance with auditor attestation under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Additionally, the company will no longer be considered a ‘foreign private issuer’ and will adhere to U.S. domestic issuer regulations starting January 1, 2026. In its preliminary second quarter results for 2025, Pagaya expects to exceed prior guidance across key metrics, with network volume reaching approximately $2.6 billion and total revenue around $326 million. The company is focused on optimizing its balance sheet and reducing capital costs to sustain growth and profitability, without the need to issue equity or equity-linked instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Pagaya Technologies Reports Q1 2025 Profitability Turnaround
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported its financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, highlighting a significant turnaround to GAAP profitability earlier than anticipated. The company achieved a net income of $8 million, a record adjusted EBITDA of $80 million, and total revenue of $290 million, marking substantial year-over-year growth. Pagaya also raised its full-year guidance for total revenue, GAAP net income, and adjusted EBITDA, indicating strong operational leverage and growing partner adoption. The company expanded its funding network with three new investors, raising $1.4 billion across three transactions in Q1, and expects continued growth in the second quarter and full year 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 18, 2025