Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.46B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.90M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.08
• Revenue Growth: 29.45%
• EPS Growth: -3.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 527
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 69,107,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,470,428
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,899,723
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.32
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.37
• 1Y Price Target: $41.43
• Price Target Upside: 128.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.55
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.52B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.00 ▲(4.74% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak profitability metrics and high leverage in the financial statements. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call highlighted strong growth, expanding EBITDA margins, and raised guidance, while technicals are modestly constructive but not decisively bullish. Valuation is less supportive due to a negative P/E and no indicated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow generation

Sustained FCF growth (65% TTM) indicates the business increasingly converts revenue into cash, improving self-funding capacity for operations, ABS issuance and debt repurchases. Strong cash generation supports durable investment, liability management, and reduces reliance on external equity.

Network scale & partner pipeline

A record $2.8B quarterly network and the largest onboarding queue point to durable distribution scale and expanding originator relationships. Greater flow improves model training, fee capture and cross-sell opportunities, strengthening competitive positioning and repeatable revenue over months.

Margin expansion & operating efficiency

Rapid EBITDA growth and a ~30.6% margin reflect structural improvements in unit economics and disciplined expense management. Higher operating leverage combined with stable gross margins enhances scalability and a clearer path to sustained GAAP profitability over the medium term.

Negative Factors

High leverage

A debt-to-equity of ~2.08 signals material leverage that reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk. High leverage can constrain growth investments, amplify credit-cycle impacts on earnings, and make the company sensitive to funding cost changes over coming quarters.

Historic GAAP profitability weakness

Persistently negative net margins and deeply negative ROE show the company has struggled to convert operations into GAAP shareholder returns. While adjusted EBITDA improved, structural profitability recovery remains unproven and could be reversed by credit losses or funding stress.

Potential share dilution from warrants

Registering shares for outstanding warrants enables exercise and potential issuance, creating a structural overhang and possible dilution to existing shareholders. This can pressure per-share metrics and limit EPS accretion from operational improvements absent offsetting buybacks or cash usage discipline.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

Pagaya generates revenue through a combination of asset management fees, performance fees, and partnerships with financial institutions. Its primary revenue stream comes from managing investment portfolios for clients, where it charges management fees based on the assets under management (AUM). Additionally, the company earns performance fees tied to the investment returns it achieves for its clients. Pagaya has established significant partnerships with banks and credit unions, which help broaden its reach and facilitate access to a larger pool of capital. These collaborations not only enhance its credibility in the market but also contribute to increased transaction volumes, thereby boosting its overall earnings.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is positive (8.05% TTM) and free cash flow growth is strong (65.27% TTM), but overall profitability remains weak (net margin -24.96%, ROE -75.34%) and leverage is high (debt-to-equity 2.08), which materially increases financial risk.

Income Statement

Pagaya Technologies Ltd shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has achieved a revenue growth rate of 8.05% TTM, indicating positive momentum. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -24.96%, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is stable at 40.84%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low at 11.61% and 14.34%, respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Pagaya Technologies Ltd reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.08 TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -75.34%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 30.11%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 65.27% TTM, which is a positive indicator of cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.48, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.87, suggesting that the company is generating cash flow relative to its net income, albeit with some room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.22B	1.00B	772.81M	685.41M	445.87M	91.74M
Gross Profit	498.65M	406.90M	263.87M	234.33M	213.54M	42.66M
EBITDA	155.49M	67.89M	-44.51M	-308.73M	-33.72M	14.27M
Net Income	-190.83M	-401.41M	-128.44M	-302.32M	-91.15M	14.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.46B	1.29B	1.21B	1.05B	590.26M	204.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	218.31M	195.72M	188.97M	310.80M	200.94M	62.63M
Total Debt	802.42M	680.81M	412.58M	212.26M	37.91M	0.00
Total Liabilities	919.54M	849.53M	542.63M	279.66M	105.86M	10.15M
Stockholders Equity	438.30M	326.49M	559.72M	553.52M	308.34M	109.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	170.59M	43.28M	-10.61M	-62.41M	43.19M	3.16M
Operating Cash Flow	190.89M	66.52M	9.58M	-40.00M	49.81M	4.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-245.50M	-498.64M	-412.69M	-159.95M	-140.74M	-122.76M
Financing Cash Flow	135.69M	436.69M	289.10M	332.45M	289.62M	119.50M

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.92, below the 50-day MA of 22.70, and below the 200-day MA of 24.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGY.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAGS	80 Outperform	$3.16B	8.78	14.28%	1.40%	0.58%	5.76%
DOCN	76 Outperform	$5.24B	23.24	―	―	14.20%	204.86%
ODD	73 Outperform	$1.75B	17.06	29.74%	―	25.80%	10.73%
AVPT	65 Neutral	$2.27B	-1,157.14	0.58%	―	24.71%	99.52%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PGY	54 Neutral	$1.46B	-6.78	-42.38%	―	29.45%	-3.73%
WRD	45 Neutral	$2.63B	-8.46	-188.58%	―	―	―

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events

Pagaya Technologies Announces Recent Senior Notes Repurchases

Since December 26, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. has repurchased approximately $6.9 million in aggregate principal amount of its 8.875% Senior Notes due 2030 through several open-market transactions, funding the purchases with cash on hand. The company viewed buying back this debt at a significant discount to par as an attractive use of capital within its ongoing capital allocation strategy, and indicated it may conduct additional, limited liability management actions depending on market conditions and liquidity needs, signaling an active approach to managing its debt profile and interest costs for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Files Form S-3SAR for Share Registration

On December 5, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. plans to file a registration statement on Form S-3SAR to satisfy obligations under a Registration Rights Agreement and to register Class A Ordinary Shares that may be issued upon the exercise of outstanding warrants from its 2022 public offering. Additionally, the company is updating its financial information from its 2024 Annual Report to present an unclassified balance sheet for the years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023, reflecting changes in its balance sheet but not updating other information since the original filing.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Reports Record Q3 2025 Results

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported record financial results for the third quarter and nine months ended 2025, with significant year-over-year increases in GAAP net income, adjusted EBITDA, and total revenue. The company raised its full-year guidance for total revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and GAAP net income, highlighting strong performance across its Auto and Point-of-Sale verticals. Pagaya also expanded its financial partnerships and credit facilities, enhancing its market position and operational efficiency. These developments underscore Pagaya’s strategic growth and commitment to bridging Main Street and Wall Street, benefiting stakeholders by improving capital efficiency and expanding its financial ecosystem.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Hold with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.