Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.79B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.87M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.31
• Revenue Growth: 26.24%
• EPS Growth: -94.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 527
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 65,319,850
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,711,908
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,865,113
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.93
• 1Y Price Target: $37.80
• Price Target Upside: 1.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $33.00 ▼(-11.24% Downside)

Pagaya Technologies Ltd's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and positive technical analysis. However, financial performance challenges, particularly in profitability and leverage, and valuation concerns due to negative earnings, weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The company's record adjusted EBITDA, accelerating network volume, and upgrades to its funding model showcase a Fintech platform firing on all cylinders.

Investor Confidence

Pagaya Technologies’ stock price had close to tripled in less than three months, reflecting investors’ increasing confidence that negative surprises from the past were unlikely to reoccur.

Operating Performance

Pagaya Technologies’ strong operating momentum and bullish new guidance for upcoming quarters signal that the company’s breakout may be just beginning.

Negative Factors

Revenue Impact

The company pulled back on SFR volume, which was relatively immaterial to revenue and resulted in network volume being below expectations.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) is a financial technology company that leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning to offer innovative solutions in the asset management and lending sectors. The company provides a platform that enhances credit and liquidity accessibility, optimizing the financial ecosystem for banks, fintechs, and institutional investors. Pagaya's core services include developing proprietary AI-driven models that analyze large datasets to improve decision-making processes in credit markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Pagaya Technologies Ltd generates revenue primarily through partnerships with financial institutions, where it applies its AI-driven models to enhance credit assessment and underwriting processes. The company earns fees from these institutions by improving their lending efficiencies and expanding their credit offerings, leading to increased loan origination volumes. Additionally, Pagaya manages investment portfolios for institutional investors, earning management fees based on the assets under management (AUM). Significant partnerships with banks and fintech companies contribute substantially to its earnings, as these collaborations allow Pagaya to scale its solutions across various financial products and markets.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pagaya Technologies Ltd shows growth in revenue and cash flow, but faces challenges in profitability and leverage. The company needs to improve its net profit margins and manage its debt levels to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Pagaya Technologies Ltd shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has achieved a positive revenue growth rate of 7.15% in the TTM, indicating a growing top line. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -24.96%, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 40.84%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest at 11.61% and 14.34% respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.08, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -75.34%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 26.21%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 59.34% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.48, which is below 1, suggesting that operating cash flow is not fully covering net losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.87, indicating better cash flow management relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.13B	1.00B	772.81M	685.41M	445.87M	91.74M
Gross Profit	459.65M	406.90M	263.87M	234.33M	213.54M	42.66M
EBITDA	161.34M	67.89M	-24.40M	-270.08M	-33.72M	14.00M
Net Income	-280.85M	-401.41M	-128.44M	-292.77M	-69.52M	19.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.40B	1.29B	1.21B	1.05B	590.26M	204.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	204.50M	195.72M	188.97M	310.80M	200.94M	62.63M
Total Debt	763.71M	680.81M	412.58M	212.26M	37.91M	2.47M
Total Liabilities	931.06M	849.53M	553.01M	279.66M	412.91M	116.13M
Stockholders Equity	366.75M	326.49M	559.72M	553.52M	1.29M	3.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	106.55M	48.78M	-10.61M	-62.41M	43.19M	3.16M
Operating Cash Flow	122.34M	66.52M	9.58M	-40.00M	49.81M	4.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-299.55M	-498.64M	-412.69M	-265.42M	-140.74M	-122.76M
Financing Cash Flow	148.91M	436.69M	289.10M	437.92M	289.62M	119.50M

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 37.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.26, above the 50-day MA of 29.30, and above the 200-day MA of 16.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PGY.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IIIV	73 Outperform	$990.58M	5.93	4.11%	―	-29.93%	389400.00%
VRNT	72 Outperform	$1.22B	30.96	4.72%	―	-2.32%	7.70%
YEXT	68 Neutral	$1.10B	―	-15.69%	―	8.38%	-278.88%
BASE	68 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-60.03%	―	10.98%	11.62%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.51B	8.11	-11.05%	1.89%	8.55%	-8.72%
PGY	60 Neutral	$2.79B	―	-62.92%	―	26.24%	-94.81%
CGNT	52 Neutral	$634.65M	―	-4.06%	―	―	―

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events

Pagaya Technologies Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

On August 7, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported its financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2025, showcasing a second consecutive quarter of positive GAAP net income and raising its full-year guidance. The company achieved record performance across key metrics, including a net income of $17 million, adjusted EBITDA of $86 million, and total revenue of $326 million. Pagaya also issued its first AAA-rated Auto ABS and Point-of-Sale ABS structures and successfully issued $500 million in senior unsecured notes. These results highlight Pagaya’s disciplined execution and strategic growth in its lending and funding network, positioning it as a unique player in bridging Wall Street and Main Street.

Pagaya Technologies Closes $500M Senior Notes Offering

On July 28, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced the successful closing of a $500 million offering of 8.875% senior unsecured notes due 2030, marking a significant milestone as one of the first fintechs to access the high-yield unsecured debt markets. The transaction, which was five times oversubscribed, reflects strong investor confidence and is expected to lower Pagaya’s cost of debt by nearly 200 basis points, enhance capital efficiency, and generate approximately $40 million in annualized cash flow savings. This move strengthens Pagaya’s financial profile, supports profitability, and broadens its long-term investor base.

Pagaya Technologies Prices $500M Senior Notes Offering

On July 23, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Pagaya US Holdings Company LLC, has priced a $500 million offering of 8.875% senior unsecured notes due in 2030. The offering size was increased from $450 million due to strong demand and is set to settle on July 28, 2025. The proceeds will be used to repay existing credit facilities and secured borrowings, with the remainder for general corporate purposes. The notes will accrue interest semi-annually and are guaranteed by Pagaya and its subsidiaries, excluding Pagaya US.

Pagaya Technologies Announces $450M Senior Notes Offering

On July 22, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Pagaya US Holding Company LLC, plans to offer $450 million in unsecured senior notes due 2030 in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers. The proceeds will be used to repay existing credit facilities and secured borrowings, with the remainder for general corporate purposes. The notes will be guaranteed by Pagaya and its subsidiaries, but they will not be registered under the Securities Act, limiting their sale to qualified buyers.

Pagaya Technologies Expects Strong Q2 2025 Results

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that as of December 31, 2025, it will be classified as a ‘large accelerated filer,’ losing its status as an emerging growth company and requiring compliance with auditor attestation under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Additionally, the company will no longer be considered a ‘foreign private issuer’ and will adhere to U.S. domestic issuer regulations starting January 1, 2026. In its preliminary second quarter results for 2025, Pagaya expects to exceed prior guidance across key metrics, with network volume reaching approximately $2.6 billion and total revenue around $326 million. The company is focused on optimizing its balance sheet and reducing capital costs to sustain growth and profitability, without the need to issue equity or equity-linked instruments.