Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.84B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.02
• Revenue Growth: 29.45%
• EPS Growth: -3.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 527
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 69,107,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,892,970
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,420,208
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.75
• 1Y Price Target: $43.83
• Price Target Upside: 88.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.89
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.32B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $25.00 ▲(7.30% Upside)

Pagaya Technologies Ltd's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and growth prospects, despite challenges in financial performance and valuation. The company's robust financial guidance and strategic initiatives suggest a positive outlook, but profitability and leverage issues remain significant concerns.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Pagaya's fintech solutions, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term expansion.

Cash Generation

High cash flow growth enhances financial flexibility, allowing Pagaya to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt effectively.

Funding Diversification

Diversified funding sources reduce financial risk and improve capital efficiency, supporting sustainable growth and operational resilience.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Negative profitability indicates ongoing operational challenges, potentially limiting reinvestment capacity and affecting long-term financial health.

High Leverage

Significant leverage increases financial risk, potentially impacting Pagaya's ability to navigate economic downturns and invest in growth.

Credit-Related Losses

Ongoing credit-related losses highlight risk management challenges, which could affect long-term profitability and investor confidence.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) is a financial technology company specializing in the development of advanced machine learning algorithms and data analytics to enhance the efficiency of the asset management and credit markets. The company operates primarily within the fintech sector, providing innovative solutions that optimize the process of credit underwriting and investment management. Pagaya's core products include AI-driven investment strategies and risk assessment tools that enable institutional investors and financial institutions to make data-driven decisions in real-time.

How the Company Makes Money

Pagaya generates revenue through a combination of asset management fees, performance fees, and partnerships with financial institutions. Its primary revenue stream comes from managing investment portfolios for clients, where it charges management fees based on the assets under management (AUM). Additionally, the company earns performance fees tied to the investment returns it achieves for its clients. Pagaya has established significant partnerships with banks and credit unions, which help broaden its reach and facilitate access to a larger pool of capital. These collaborations not only enhance its credibility in the market but also contribute to increased transaction volumes, thereby boosting its overall earnings.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pagaya Technologies Ltd demonstrates growth in revenue and cash flow, but faces challenges in profitability and leverage. The revenue growth rate of 8.05% and strong free cash flow growth rate of 65.27% are positive indicators. However, the negative net profit margin of -24.96% and high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.08 highlight significant profitability and financial risk challenges.

Income Statement

Pagaya Technologies Ltd shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has achieved a revenue growth rate of 8.05% TTM, indicating positive momentum. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -24.96%, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is stable at 40.84%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low at 11.61% and 14.34%, respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Pagaya Technologies Ltd reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.08 TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -75.34%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 30.11%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 65.27% TTM, which is a positive indicator of cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.48, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.87, suggesting that the company is generating cash flow relative to its net income, albeit with some room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.22B	1.00B	772.81M	685.41M	445.87M	91.74M
Gross Profit	498.65M	406.90M	263.87M	234.33M	213.54M	42.66M
EBITDA	155.49M	67.89M	-44.51M	-308.73M	-33.72M	14.27M
Net Income	-190.83M	-401.41M	-128.44M	-302.32M	-91.15M	14.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.46B	1.29B	1.21B	1.05B	590.26M	204.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	218.31M	195.72M	188.97M	310.80M	200.94M	62.63M
Total Debt	802.42M	680.81M	412.58M	212.26M	37.91M	0.00
Total Liabilities	919.54M	849.53M	542.63M	279.66M	105.86M	10.15M
Stockholders Equity	438.30M	326.49M	559.72M	553.52M	308.34M	109.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	170.59M	43.28M	-10.61M	-62.41M	43.19M	3.16M
Operating Cash Flow	190.89M	66.52M	9.58M	-40.00M	49.81M	4.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-245.50M	-498.64M	-412.69M	-159.95M	-140.74M	-122.76M
Financing Cash Flow	135.69M	436.69M	289.10M	332.45M	289.62M	119.50M

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.70, below the 50-day MA of 25.23, and above the 200-day MA of 23.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PGY.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAGS	80 Outperform	$3.15B	7.40	14.28%	1.41%	0.58%	5.76%
DOCN	73 Outperform	$4.35B	19.97	―	―	14.20%	204.86%
ODD	73 Outperform	$2.40B	23.68	29.74%	―	25.80%	10.73%
AVPT	65 Neutral	$3.01B	-1,497.80	0.58%	―	24.71%	99.52%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PGY	54 Neutral	$1.84B	-8.71	-42.38%	―	29.45%	-3.73%
WRD	45 Neutral	$3.00B	-10.67	-188.58%	―	―	―

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events

Pagaya Technologies Files Form S-3SAR for Share Registration

On December 5, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. plans to file a registration statement on Form S-3SAR to satisfy obligations under a Registration Rights Agreement and to register Class A Ordinary Shares that may be issued upon the exercise of outstanding warrants from its 2022 public offering. Additionally, the company is updating its financial information from its 2024 Annual Report to present an unclassified balance sheet for the years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023, reflecting changes in its balance sheet but not updating other information since the original filing.

Pagaya Technologies Reports Record Q3 2025 Results

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported record financial results for the third quarter and nine months ended 2025, with significant year-over-year increases in GAAP net income, adjusted EBITDA, and total revenue. The company raised its full-year guidance for total revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and GAAP net income, highlighting strong performance across its Auto and Point-of-Sale verticals. Pagaya also expanded its financial partnerships and credit facilities, enhancing its market position and operational efficiency. These developments underscore Pagaya’s strategic growth and commitment to bridging Main Street and Wall Street, benefiting stakeholders by improving capital efficiency and expanding its financial ecosystem.

Pagaya Technologies Refinances Credit Facility for Growth

On October 1, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced the refinancing of its revolving credit facility by terminating the 2024 Credit Agreement and entering into a new agreement with BMO BANK N.A. and other lenders. The new facility, amounting to $132 million, significantly reduces Pagaya’s cost of debt capital by lowering the interest rate by nearly 35%. This expansion more than doubles the previous facility and reflects strong demand from both new and existing lenders, enhancing Pagaya’s financial stability and positioning it for sustained growth amidst market volatility.