Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY)
NASDAQ:PGY
Want to see PGY full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Pagaya Technologies Ltd
(NASDAQ:PGY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▼(-19.95% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/10/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial momentum (especially cash flow) and a broadly positive earnings outlook with conservative risk management. These positives are tempered by elevated leverage and a clearly bearish technical trend (price below key moving averages with negative MACD), which meaningfully increases near-term risk despite oversold signals.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & FCF recovery
Pagaya moved from earlier negative cash flow to materially positive operating and free cash flow in the TTM period, with FCF close to reported net income. Durable cash conversion enhances self-funding ability, reduces reliance on external capital, and supports reinvestment or liability reduction.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Rising debt relative to equity (roughly 1.7x) increases financial rigidity and interest/repayment risk. Higher leverage weakens the balance sheet cushion against credit stress, limits strategic flexibility, and can amplify downside in adverse funding or underwriting environments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & FCF recovery
Pagaya moved from earlier negative cash flow to materially positive operating and free cash flow in the TTM period, with FCF close to reported net income. Durable cash conversion enhances self-funding ability, reduces reliance on external capital, and supports reinvestment or liability reduction.
Read all positive factors
Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.17B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.1
Beta (1Y)2.11
Revenue Growth29.45%
EPS Growth-3.73%
CountryUS
Employees527
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding71,237,860
10 Day Avg. Volume3,639,467
30 Day Avg. Volume3,000,047
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.17
Price to Book (P/B)3.41
Price to Sales (P/S)1.30
P/FCF Ratio7.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.60
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.22Price Target Upside88.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.48B
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners t...
How the Company Makes Money
Pagaya primarily makes money by enabling lending partners to originate consumer credit and by monetizing the flow of those credit assets through its network. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) platform and service fees earned for providing...
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Network Volume
Measures the total value of transactions processed through the network, indicating the platform's scale, user engagement, and potential for growth.
Measures the total value of transactions processed through the network, indicating the platform's scale, user engagement, and potential for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPagaya Technologies Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong financial progress (revenue growth, materially higher adjusted EBITDA, multi-quarter GAAP profitability, improved monetization, funding diversification, and partner/product expansion) while also communicating a deliberate, risk-first posture: a late‑Q4 pullback in higher‑volatility production, continued guidance for rolling credit impairments, and some near‑term fee and mark‑to‑market headwinds. Management presented a controlled plan to trade near‑term volume for portfolio stability and durable profitability, with concrete 2026 guidance that assumes the conservative posture persists.Positive Updates
GAAP Profitability and Cash Flow
Q4 GAAP net income of $34M and operating cash flow of $80M; full-year GAAP net income of $81M (EPS $0.93), a $483M improvement versus 2024, marking the fourth consecutive profitable quarter.
Negative Updates
Late-Q4 Production Pullback and Near-Term Volume Impact
Proactive tightening of production in higher-volatility credit segments reduced exit-rate volume by approximately $100M–$150M per month; midpoint of that range equates to an illustrative $375M Q1 impact and ~$1.5B annualized baseline reduction, which restrains near-term growth guidance for 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
GAAP Profitability and Cash Flow
Q4 GAAP net income of $34M and operating cash flow of $80M; full-year GAAP net income of $81M (EPS $0.93), a $483M improvement versus 2024, marking the fourth consecutive profitable quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Pagaya’s 2026 guidance calls for Q1 network volume of $2.5–$2.7 billion, total revenue and other income of $315–$335 million, adjusted EBITDA of $80–$95 million and GAAP net income of $15–$35 million; for the full year it projects network volume of $11.25–$13.0 billion, total revenue of $1.40–$1.575 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $410–$460 million and GAAP net income of $100–$150 million. Management expects FRLPC margin of 4%–5% for 2026, assumes $100–$150 million of rolling 12‑month credit‑related impairments, and has baked in an exit‑rate production reduction of roughly $100–$150 million per month (the midpoint equates to about a $375 million Q1 impact and ~$1.5 billion on an annualized baseline). The guidance reflects a deliberate, risk‑first posture assuming current uncertainty persists and will be adjusted if conditions improve.Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.26B | 1.00B | 772.81M | 685.41M | 445.87M |
| Gross Profit | 512.17M | 406.90M | 263.87M | 234.33M | 213.54M |
| EBITDA | 81.70M | 67.89M | -44.51M | -308.73M | -33.72M |
| Net Income | 81.39M | -401.41M | -128.44M | -302.32M | -91.15M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.55B | 1.29B | 1.21B | 1.05B | 590.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 288.35M | 195.72M | 188.97M | 310.80M | 200.94M |
| Total Debt | 922.80M | 680.81M | 412.58M | 212.26M | 37.91M |
| Total Liabilities | 990.56M | 849.53M | 542.63M | 279.66M | 105.86M |
| Stockholders Equity | 480.02M | 326.49M | 559.72M | 553.52M | 308.34M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 224.72M | 43.28M | -10.61M | -62.41M | 43.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 238.62M | 66.52M | 9.58M | -40.00M | 49.81M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -309.71M | -498.64M | -412.69M | -159.95M | -140.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 129.60M | 436.69M | 289.10M | 332.45M | 289.62M |
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.99
Price Trends
12.18
Positive
17.44
Negative
23.96
Negative
Market Momentum
0.47
Negative
70.12
Negative
93.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.20, above the 50-day MA of 12.18, and below the 200-day MA of 23.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.12 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PGY.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Risk Analysis
Pagaya Technologies Ltd disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pagaya Technologies Ltd reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $856.08M | 20.65 | 30.38% | ― | 25.80% | 10.73% | |
66 Neutral | $2.11B | 82.10 | 7.96% | ― | 24.71% | 99.52% | |
65 Neutral | $7.96B | 42.89 | -214.15% | ― | 14.20% | 204.86% | |
64 Neutral | $3.30B | 7.50 | 14.40% | 1.40% | 0.58% | 5.76% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
55 Neutral | $1.17B | 20.12 | 20.09% | ― | 29.45% | -3.73% | |
45 Neutral | $2.72B | -11.62 | -24.09% | ― | ― | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd
14.99
6.01
66.93%
PAGS
Pagseguro Digital
11.26
3.23
40.21%
AVPT
AvePoint
10.04
-3.99
-28.44%
DOCN
DigitalOcean Holdings
85.63
59.72
230.49%
ODD
ODDITY Tech Ltd. Class A
15.34
-25.46
-62.40%
WRD
WeRide
8.21
-0.23
-2.73%
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Pagaya Technologies Reports Record Q4 and 2025 Profitability
Positive
Feb 9, 2026
Pagaya Technologies reported on February 9, 2026 that it achieved record profitability for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, as GAAP net income attributable to shareholders rose to $34 million for the quarter and $81 millio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.