Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.55B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.45
• Revenue Growth: 25.84%
• EPS Growth: -248.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 527
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 63,055,283
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,651,449
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,807,704
• PEG Ratio: -0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.01
• 1Y Price Target: $32.72
• Price Target Upside: 1.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $32.00 ▼(-0.62%Downside)

Pagaya Technologies Ltd's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and positive earnings call sentiment, reflecting confidence in future growth. However, financial performance is hampered by high leverage and profitability issues, and the valuation remains challenging due to a negative P/E ratio. The positive corporate events further support growth potential, but caution is advised due to financial risks.

Positive Factors

Earnings

PGY's announcement of preliminary 2Q25 operating results that were better-than-expected provided the validation that many investors had been seeking for sustained profitable growth.

Financial Performance

PGY has achieved GAAP net income profitability – it reached that milestone in 1Q25.

Growth Strategy

The company is expected to drive additional share price gains as it continues to grow across the personal, auto, and point-of-sale loan verticals, leveraging AI to credit underwriting at scale.

Negative Factors

Network Volume

The company's network volume was below management's guidance range due to lower volume from its lower-margin single-family rental business.

Revenue Source

The company pulled back on SFR volume, which was relatively immaterial to revenue and resulted in network volume being below expectations.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

Pagaya Technologies Ltd generates revenue primarily through partnerships with financial institutions, where it applies its AI-driven models to enhance credit assessment and underwriting processes. The company earns fees from these institutions by improving their lending efficiencies and expanding their credit offerings, leading to increased loan origination volumes. Additionally, Pagaya manages investment portfolios for institutional investors, earning management fees based on the assets under management (AUM). Significant partnerships with banks and fintech companies contribute substantially to its earnings, as these collaborations allow Pagaya to scale its solutions across various financial products and markets.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pagaya Technologies Ltd demonstrates strong revenue growth and effective cost management with a solid gross profit margin. However, profitability remains a concern due to continued net losses and high leverage, as reflected in its balance sheet. While cash flow generation has been positive, indicating potential for financial resilience, high debt levels present a risk. Improvement in operational efficiencies and reduction of leverage is needed to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a revenue growth rate of 4.5% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) compared to the previous year. Despite this, the company is still struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -35.4% and negative net income. Gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 41.0%, suggesting effective cost management in production. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are low at 10.2% and 10.5%, respectively, indicating challenges in covering operational expenses and achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.02, which indicates significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -110.9%, due to losses, which suggests issues in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio of 26.2% is moderate, indicating a balanced level of equity financing compared to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a leveraged position with potential risk due to high debt levels.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has shown impressive growth at 37.1% in the TTM period, indicating improvements in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting the company's ongoing net losses, but operating cash flow has been positive, which is a favorable sign. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, given the negative net income, yet the positive free cash flow suggests effective capital management. Overall, cash flow health shows positive trends despite net income challenges.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.00B	772.81M	685.41M	445.87M	91.74M
Gross Profit	406.90M	263.87M	234.33M	213.54M	42.66M
EBITDA	67.89M	-24.40M	-270.08M	-33.72M	14.00M
Net Income	-401.41M	-128.44M	-292.77M	-69.52M	19.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.29B	1.21B	1.05B	590.26M	204.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	195.72M	188.97M	310.80M	200.94M	62.63M
Total Debt	680.81M	412.58M	212.26M	37.91M	2.47M
Total Liabilities	849.53M	553.01M	279.66M	412.91M	116.13M
Stockholders Equity	326.49M	559.72M	553.52M	1.29M	3.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	48.78M	-10.61M	-62.41M	43.19M	3.16M
Operating Cash Flow	66.52M	9.58M	-40.00M	49.81M	4.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-498.64M	-412.69M	-265.42M	-140.74M	-122.76M
Financing Cash Flow	436.69M	289.10M	437.92M	289.62M	119.50M

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 32.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.18, above the 50-day MA of 20.23, and above the 200-day MA of 13.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.49 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PGY.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VRNT	74 Outperform	$1.34B	28.63	5.32%	―	-2.09%	76.96%
IIIV	73 Outperform	$946.68M	6.12	0.63%	―	-35.88%	4611.09%
YEXT	71 Outperform	$1.04B	―	-15.69%	―	8.38%	-278.88%
PGY	70 Outperform	$2.55B	―	-77.37%	―	25.84%	-248.65%
BASE	68 Neutral	$1.33B	―	-55.90%	―	12.76%	16.97%
Sector *	63 Neutral	£505.90M	23.87	-8.45%	173.32%	4.53%	-18.72%
CGNT	52 Neutral	$665.59M	―	-4.06%	―	―	―

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events

Pagaya Technologies Prices $500M Senior Notes Offering

On July 23, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Pagaya US Holdings Company LLC, has priced a $500 million offering of 8.875% senior unsecured notes due in 2030. The offering size was increased from $450 million due to strong demand and is set to settle on July 28, 2025. The proceeds will be used to repay existing credit facilities and secured borrowings, with the remainder for general corporate purposes. The notes will accrue interest semi-annually and are guaranteed by Pagaya and its subsidiaries, excluding Pagaya US.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Announces $450M Senior Notes Offering

On July 22, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Pagaya US Holding Company LLC, plans to offer $450 million in unsecured senior notes due 2030 in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers. The proceeds will be used to repay existing credit facilities and secured borrowings, with the remainder for general corporate purposes. The notes will be guaranteed by Pagaya and its subsidiaries, but they will not be registered under the Securities Act, limiting their sale to qualified buyers.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Expects Strong Q2 2025 Results

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that as of December 31, 2025, it will be classified as a ‘large accelerated filer,’ losing its status as an emerging growth company and requiring compliance with auditor attestation under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Additionally, the company will no longer be considered a ‘foreign private issuer’ and will adhere to U.S. domestic issuer regulations starting January 1, 2026. In its preliminary second quarter results for 2025, Pagaya expects to exceed prior guidance across key metrics, with network volume reaching approximately $2.6 billion and total revenue around $326 million. The company is focused on optimizing its balance sheet and reducing capital costs to sustain growth and profitability, without the need to issue equity or equity-linked instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Reports Q1 2025 Profitability Turnaround

On May 7, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported its financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, highlighting a significant turnaround to GAAP profitability earlier than anticipated. The company achieved a net income of $8 million, a record adjusted EBITDA of $80 million, and total revenue of $290 million, marking substantial year-over-year growth. Pagaya also raised its full-year guidance for total revenue, GAAP net income, and adjusted EBITDA, indicating strong operational leverage and growing partner adoption. The company expanded its funding network with three new investors, raising $1.4 billion across three transactions in Q1, and expects continued growth in the second quarter and full year 2025.