Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.15
• Revenue Growth: 26.24%
• EPS Growth: -94.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 527
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 65,319,850
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,852,272
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,100,594
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.93
• 1Y Price Target: $39.67
• Price Target Upside: 39.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $29.00 ▲(2.04% Upside)

Pagaya Technologies Ltd's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance, highlighting record revenues and strategic growth initiatives. However, financial performance challenges, particularly in profitability and leverage, along with valuation concerns, weigh on the score. Technical indicators suggest cautious market sentiment.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Record revenue growth indicates strong market demand and successful business strategies, supporting long-term expansion and stability.

Operational Efficiency

High adjusted EBITDA demonstrates effective cost management and operational efficiency, enhancing profitability and competitive positioning.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships expand capital access and market reach, driving growth and diversification in revenue streams.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Negative profit margins indicate ongoing challenges in achieving profitability, which could hinder long-term financial health and growth potential.

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Macroeconomic Caution

Macroeconomic caution suggests potential vulnerability to economic downturns, which could affect demand and financial performance.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) is a financial technology company specializing in the development of advanced machine learning algorithms and data analytics to enhance the efficiency of the asset management and credit markets. The company operates primarily within the fintech sector, providing innovative solutions that optimize the process of credit underwriting and investment management. Pagaya's core products include AI-driven investment strategies and risk assessment tools that enable institutional investors and financial institutions to make data-driven decisions in real-time.

How the Company Makes Money

Pagaya generates revenue through a combination of asset management fees, performance fees, and partnerships with financial institutions. Its primary revenue stream comes from managing investment portfolios for clients, where it charges management fees based on the assets under management (AUM). Additionally, the company earns performance fees tied to the investment returns it achieves for its clients. Pagaya has established significant partnerships with banks and credit unions, which help broaden its reach and facilitate access to a larger pool of capital. These collaborations not only enhance its credibility in the market but also contribute to increased transaction volumes, thereby boosting its overall earnings.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pagaya Technologies Ltd shows growth in revenue and cash flow, but faces challenges in profitability and leverage. The company needs to improve its net profit margins and manage its debt levels to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Pagaya Technologies Ltd shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has achieved a positive revenue growth rate of 7.15% in the TTM, indicating a growing top line. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -24.96%, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 40.84%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest at 11.61% and 14.34% respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.08, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative at -75.34%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 26.21%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 59.34% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.48, which is below 1, suggesting that operating cash flow is not fully covering net losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.87, indicating better cash flow management relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.13B	1.00B	772.81M	685.41M	445.87M	91.74M
Gross Profit	459.65M	406.90M	263.87M	234.33M	213.54M	42.66M
EBITDA	161.34M	67.89M	-24.40M	-270.08M	-33.72M	14.00M
Net Income	-280.85M	-401.41M	-128.44M	-292.77M	-69.52M	19.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.40B	1.29B	1.21B	1.05B	590.26M	204.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	204.50M	195.72M	188.97M	310.80M	200.94M	62.63M
Total Debt	763.71M	680.81M	412.58M	212.26M	37.91M	2.47M
Total Liabilities	931.06M	849.53M	553.01M	279.66M	412.91M	116.13M
Stockholders Equity	366.75M	326.49M	559.72M	553.52M	1.29M	3.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	106.55M	48.78M	-10.61M	-62.41M	43.19M	3.16M
Operating Cash Flow	122.34M	66.52M	9.58M	-40.00M	49.81M	4.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-299.55M	-498.64M	-412.69M	-265.42M	-140.74M	-122.76M
Financing Cash Flow	148.91M	436.69M	289.10M	437.92M	289.62M	119.50M

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 28.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.87, below the 50-day MA of 33.93, and above the 200-day MA of 20.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGY.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DOCN	70 Outperform	$3.62B	30.62	―	―	13.29%	79.98%
ODD	69 Neutral	$2.83B	27.35	30.36%	―	26.12%	28.03%
PAGS	68 Neutral	$2.99B	7.29	14.59%	1.50%	0.09%	5.38%
AVPT	62 Neutral	$3.15B	―	-2.60%	―	24.41%	40.20%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PGY	52 Neutral	$2.24B	―	-62.92%	―	26.24%	-94.81%
WRD	44 Neutral	$2.90B	―	―	―	―	―

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events

Pagaya Technologies Refinances Credit Facility for Growth

On October 1, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced the refinancing of its revolving credit facility by terminating the 2024 Credit Agreement and entering into a new agreement with BMO BANK N.A. and other lenders. The new facility, amounting to $132 million, significantly reduces Pagaya’s cost of debt capital by lowering the interest rate by nearly 35%. This expansion more than doubles the previous facility and reflects strong demand from both new and existing lenders, enhancing Pagaya’s financial stability and positioning it for sustained growth amidst market volatility.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a global technology company specializing in artificial intelligence infrastructure for the financial ecosystem, reported its financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2025, showcasing significant growth and strategic advancements.

Pagaya Technologies’ Earnings Call Highlights Record Growth

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. recently held its earnings call, revealing a mix of record-breaking achievements and notable challenges. The sentiment was largely positive, with significant accomplishments in income and revenue, bolstered by successful funding initiatives and robust credit performance. However, the company also faced onboarding delays with bank partners and incurred substantial one-time costs that impacted net income. Despite these hurdles, the overall outlook remains optimistic.

Pagaya Technologies Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

On August 7, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported its financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2025, showcasing a second consecutive quarter of positive GAAP net income and raising its full-year guidance. The company achieved record performance across key metrics, including a net income of $17 million, adjusted EBITDA of $86 million, and total revenue of $326 million. Pagaya also issued its first AAA-rated Auto ABS and Point-of-Sale ABS structures and successfully issued $500 million in senior unsecured notes. These results highlight Pagaya’s disciplined execution and strategic growth in its lending and funding network, positioning it as a unique player in bridging Wall Street and Main Street.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Closes $500M Senior Notes Offering

On July 28, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced the successful closing of a $500 million offering of 8.875% senior unsecured notes due 2030, marking a significant milestone as one of the first fintechs to access the high-yield unsecured debt markets. The transaction, which was five times oversubscribed, reflects strong investor confidence and is expected to lower Pagaya’s cost of debt by nearly 200 basis points, enhance capital efficiency, and generate approximately $40 million in annualized cash flow savings. This move strengthens Pagaya’s financial profile, supports profitability, and broadens its long-term investor base.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Prices $500M Senior Notes Offering

On July 23, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Pagaya US Holdings Company LLC, has priced a $500 million offering of 8.875% senior unsecured notes due in 2030. The offering size was increased from $450 million due to strong demand and is set to settle on July 28, 2025. The proceeds will be used to repay existing credit facilities and secured borrowings, with the remainder for general corporate purposes. The notes will accrue interest semi-annually and are guaranteed by Pagaya and its subsidiaries, excluding Pagaya US.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.