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AvePoint (AVPT)
NASDAQ:AVPT
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AvePoint
(NASDAQ:AVPT)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(5.97% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability turn, robust cash generation, and low leverage) and upbeat FY2026 guidance/operational momentum from the earnings call. These positives are materially offset by weak technicals (clear downtrend across moving averages with negative MACD) and limited usefulness of valuation metrics given the very negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Recurring ARR and SaaS momentum
Strong, accelerating ARR and record net new ARR indicate durable subscription revenue that increases predictability and upsell potential. Durable ARR growth supports long-term cash visibility and enterprise expansion, underpinning scalable revenue even as individual quarters fluctuate.
High gross margins and SaaS mix
Sustained high gross margins and a dominant SaaS mix create structural operating leverage, enabling incremental revenue to flow to the bottom line. The Microsoft-aligned, cloud-native product set helps maintain margin durability versus services-heavy peers, supporting long-term profitability.
Strong cash generation and conservative balance sheet
Robust cash generation tightly tracking earnings and very low leverage provide financial flexibility to invest, weather volatility, and fund growth initiatives. Large cash reserves plus positive FCF quality reduce refinancing risk and support strategic product and GTM investments over time.
Negative Factors
2025 revenue growth slowdown
A marked deceleration in top-line growth reduces operating-leverage upside and raises the bar for management to sustain margin expansion. If slower revenue growth persists, it can compress long-term return profiles and increase dependence on cost cuts or higher-risk investments to meet targets.
Retention pressure from migrations
Migration-driven retention headwinds erode ARR quality and slow net revenue retention, making long-term compounding harder. Prolonged migration friction can limit upsell and force higher sales/implementation spend to stabilize customer base and preserve lifetime value.
2026 'investment year' may pressure margins
Planned step-ups in marketing and go‑to‑market investments will likely delay margin expansion despite long-term margin targets. If revenue acceleration from these investments underperforms, it could compress profitability and cash conversion in the medium term, testing execution.
AvePoint (AVPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.19B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth24.71%
EPS Growth99.52%
CountryUS
Employees2,934
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding215,789,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,868,408
30 Day Avg. Volume1,923,705
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)6.02
Price to Sales (P/S)6.87
P/FCF Ratio35.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda43.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.07Price Target Upside64.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)0.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$491.11M
AvePoint Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAvePoint, Inc. provides Microsoft 365 data management solutions worldwide. It offers SaaS platform cloud-hosted collaboration systems by providing suite of software products. The company focuses on data protection, governance, compliance management extensions for Microsoft 365, Dynamics 365, Salesforce, and Google Workspace. In addition, the company offers software solutions for Microsoft 365, including microsoft teams, sharepoint online, exchange online, onedrive, project online, planner, yammer and other public folders. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvePoint generates revenue through a subscription-based model, offering various software-as-a-service (SaaS) products that cater to the needs of organizations using Microsoft 365 and other cloud platforms. Key revenue streams include annual and multi-year subscriptions for its data management solutions, which provide recurring income. Additionally, the company may earn revenue through professional services related to implementation, support, and training. Significant partnerships with Microsoft enhance AvePoint's market presence, as it integrates its solutions within the Microsoft ecosystem, driving user adoption and expanding its customer base. This strategic alignment with a leading cloud provider contributes substantially to AvePoint's earnings.
AvePoint Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strong set of operational and financial results: accelerating SaaS growth, record ARR and net new ARR, expanding margins, robust cash generation, large-account momentum, and clear product positioning around AI governance (AgentPulse). Management provided confident ARR and revenue guidance for 2026 while signaling deliberate investments in marketing, go-to-market, and platform scalability that may temper margin expansion in the near term. Headwinds discussed were mainly mix- and timing-related (migration impacts on GRR, services mix reducing gross margin, term license mix shifting revenue recognition, and some public sector timing), and management articulated clear plans and rationale to address them.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 total revenues of $114.7M, up 29% year-over-year (25% constant currency). Full-year 2025 revenues of $419.5M, up 27% reported (25% FX-adjusted).
SaaS Momentum and Shift to Recurring Revenue
Q4 SaaS revenue of $88.9M, up 37% year-over-year and representing 78% of Q4 revenue (33% SaaS growth on a constant currency basis). Full-year SaaS revenue of $319.2M, up 38% and 76% of total revenue. Overall recurring revenue was 87% of Q4 revenues.
ARR Acceleration and Record Net New ARR
Total ARR ended at $416.8M, up 27% year-over-year (26% FX-adjusted). Net new ARR in Q4 was $26.8M (+48% YoY) and full-year net new ARR was a record $89.8M (+44% YoY). Guidance for FY2026 ARR midpoint implies ~27% growth to ~$528M (FX-adjusted ~26%).
Profitability and Margin Expansion
Full-year 2025 non-GAAP operating income of $79.2M (18.9% margin) and GAAP operating income of $33.0M (7.9% margin). Q4 non-GAAP operating income of $22.9M (20% margin), representing >370 bps YoY expansion in the quarter. Rule of 40 finished 2025 at 46.
Strong Cash Position and Cash Flow
Ended year with $481M cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. Cash from operations for 2025 was $85.3M (20% margin) and free cash flow was $81.6M (19% margin).
Enterprise Customer Expansion
800+ enterprise momentum: 820 customers with ARR >$100K (24% YoY increase), 298 customers >$250K (record additions), 100+ customers >$500K, and 31 customers >$1M — signaling strong upsell and large-account traction.
Backlog / Contract Visibility
Remaining performance obligation (RPO) grew to $508.1M, up 36% year-over-year, signaling longer-term customer commitments to the platform.
Product Leadership and AI Positioning
Launched AgentPulse and agentic AI governance/data protection features; platform positioned as a governance/control layer for agentic AI. Gartner referenced AvePoint in M365 Copilot/agentic AI research. Strategic shift to bundled offerings and movement toward hybrid seat/consumption pricing.
Negative Updates
Slight Gross Margin Compression
Q4 gross margin was 74.2%, down from 75.5% a year ago, primarily due to a higher mix of services revenue which carries lower relative gross margins.
Customer Retention Pressure from Migration Mix
Reported Q4 gross retention rate (GRR) was 88% (90% excluding migration); management noted migration acted as a roughly two-point headwind to GRR and expects migration-driven dynamics could put modest pressure on GRR in 2026.
Term License & Maintenance Mix Trends
Term license and support revenue grew only 7% year-over-year in Q4 and represented 9% of Q4 revenue (down from 11% a year ago). Maintenance revenue declined to ~1% of total revenue and is continuing its expected decline. Management expects term license growth to be roughly flat in 2026, resulting in less upfront revenue recognition.
Public Sector / Federal Civilian Underperformance
Public sector (federal civilian) growth lagged North America overall; Fed/civilian was a weaker subsegment in 2025 even though other public sector areas (DoD, state & local) remain strategic priorities.
2026 Investment Year May Pressure Near-Term Margins
Management characterized 2026 as an investment year with meaningful increases in marketing spend and go-to-market investments; guidance implies relatively flat non-GAAP operating margins for 2026 as investments are made before anticipated longer-term benefits.
Free Cash Flow Timing and One-Time Items
Free cash flow was slightly affected by one-time tax payments (~$7M) and timing of receivables (notably some public sector invoices), contributing to FCF volatility versus expectations.
Company Guidance
For Q1 the company guided total revenues of $115.0M–$117.0M (≈25% YoY growth at the midpoint; ~20% constant‑currency) and non‑GAAP operating income of $19.5M–$20.5M. For FY2026 AvePoint expects total ARR of $525.1M–$531.1M (≈27% YoY at the midpoint; 26% FX‑adjusted), total revenues of $509.4M–$517.4M (≈22% YoY at the midpoint; ~20% constant‑currency), and full‑year non‑GAAP operating income of $92.6M–$96.6M (midpoint implies a Rule‑of‑40 of ~45). Management called 2026 an “investment year” with higher marketing spend while keeping the long‑term non‑GAAP operating margin target of 25–30%, expects stock‑based compensation to remain <10% of revenue and to decline (supporting GAAP margin expansion), and noted the ARR guide excludes a prior‑year $2.8M Identik Q1 contribution and reflects differences between ARR and revenue driven by slower services growth and a flatter term‑license mix.AvePoint Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong overall fundamentals: multi-year revenue scaling, high and stable gross margins (~71–75%), a 2025 turn to positive net income (~8.4% margin), and robust operating cash flow/free cash flow (~$85M/~$82M). Balance sheet leverage is very low (debt-to-equity ~2.1%). Primary concern is the notable slowdown in 2025 revenue growth (6.5%) and slightly negative FCF growth (-2.0%), which could limit operating leverage if it persists.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled consistently from $152M (2020) to $419M (2025), though growth slowed materially in 2025 (6.5% vs. ~17–27% in prior years). Profitability has improved meaningfully: the company moved from multi-year losses to positive net income in 2025 ($35M, ~8.4% margin) and positive EBITDA margin (~7.9%). Gross margins remain strong and stable (~71–75%), supporting the business model. Key watch-out is that the growth deceleration in 2025 reduces the quality of the earnings rebound and may pressure operating leverage if it persists.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks conservative with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.1% in 2025, down from ~6–7% in 2022–2024). Equity has expanded significantly (to ~$479M in 2025 from ~$269M in 2024), and returns improved alongside the shift to profitability (2025 return on equity ~7.3% vs. negative in 2022–2024). The main weakness is that returns are still moderate for software and rely on maintaining the recent profitability improvements.86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow rose to ~$85M in 2025 and free cash flow was ~$82M, staying strong after a large step-up in 2023–2024. Free cash flow closely tracks earnings (free cash flow roughly 96% of net income in 2025), which supports earnings quality. The key downside is that free cash flow growth turned slightly negative in 2025 (-2.0%), suggesting momentum cooled even as profitability improved.84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 419.50M | 330.48M | 271.82M | 232.34M | 191.91M |
| Gross Profit | 310.70M | 247.96M | 194.37M | 166.06M | 139.25M |
| EBITDA | 33.03M | 12.55M | -10.66M | -30.12M | -52.25M |
| Net Income | 35.12M | -29.09M | -21.73M | -41.63M | -35.22M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 789.18M | 519.05M | 442.58M | 415.53M | 388.74M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 481.06M | 290.90M | 226.88M | 229.81M | 270.63M |
| Total Debt | 9.95M | 16.53M | 14.72M | 16.74M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 310.48M | 248.11M | 217.74M | 172.38M | 133.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 478.70M | 269.15M | 210.60M | 229.15M | 250.35M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 81.57M | 85.85M | 31.17M | -6.24M | 2.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 85.26M | 88.89M | 34.69M | -774.00K | 5.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.20M | -2.60M | -5.65M | -21.45M | -3.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 123.99M | -15.54M | -33.67M | -17.15M | 198.62M |
AvePoint Technical Analysis
Negative
10.38
Price Trends
12.28
Negative
13.03
Negative
15.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.58
Negative
37.44
Neutral
39.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVPT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.66, below the 50-day MA of 12.28, and below the 200-day MA of 15.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVPT.
AvePoint Risk Analysis
AvePoint disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AvePoint reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AvePoint Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.02B | 43.78 | 19.10% | ― | 18.37% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $1.79B | 27.62 | 9.79% | ― | 10.58% | -45.52% | |
70 Outperform | $2.03B | 22.04 | 10.21% | ― | 19.28% | 6.16% | |
68 Neutral | $5.74B | 23.59 | ― | ― | 14.20% | 204.86% | |
66 Neutral | $2.19B | -1,124.18 | 0.58% | ― | 24.71% | 99.52% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $2.18B | -63.29 | -9.95% | ― | 11.05% | 45.23% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.