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AvePoint (AVPT)
NASDAQ:AVPT
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AvePoint
(NASDAQ:AVPT)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(12.41% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/03/25
AvePoint's overall stock score reflects a strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, offset by weak technical indicators and a challenging valuation. The company's strategic focus on AI governance and SaaS growth are significant positives, but the stock's current bearish trend and negative P/E ratio present notable risks.
Positive Factors
SaaS & ARR Growth
High SaaS mix (77% of revenue), 38% SaaS revenue growth and ARR up 26% to $390M improve recurring revenue predictability and cash visibility. Strong net new ARR and a 110% net retention rate support durable expansion, upsell economics and multi-month revenue visibility.
Balance Sheet Strength
Very low leverage (D/E ~0.024) and a solid equity base give the company flexibility to fund growth, absorb shocks, and invest in product and channel initiatives without heavy refinancing risk. This financial stability supports multi-month strategic execution and M&A optionality.
Improved Profitability & Cash Generation
Higher non-GAAP operating income and record operating cash flow indicate improving unit economics and strong conversion of revenues into cash. Better margins and positive free cash flow growth provide durable capacity to reinvest in AI governance, R&D and channel expansion.
Negative Factors
Public Sector Exposure
Weakness in the public sector and government shutdown-driven deal delays can elongate sales cycles and reduce upsell opportunities. Persistent federal austerity or timing uncertainty can make a component of ARR and retention less predictable over the next several months.
Margin Pressure from Services Mix
A rising share of lower-margin services versus SaaS can compress gross margins and limit operating leverage. If services growth outpaces SaaS, scalable margins and long-term profitability expansion may be constrained, affecting durable margin improvement.
Thin Net Profitability
Although revenue and gross margins are strong, a TTM net margin of ~0.5% leaves little buffer for cost increases or investment. Sustained margin improvement and operational efficiency gains are required to convert top-line growth into durable bottom-line strength.
AvePoint (AVPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.19B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth24.71%
EPS Growth99.52%
CountryUS
Employees2,934
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding215,789,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,865,420
30 Day Avg. Volume1,906,886
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.13
Price to Book (P/B)11.27
Price to Sales (P/S)9.18
P/FCF Ratio35.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda51.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.60Price Target Upside81.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$491.11M
AvePoint Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAvePoint, Inc. provides Microsoft 365 data management solutions worldwide. It offers SaaS platform cloud-hosted collaboration systems by providing suite of software products. The company focuses on data protection, governance, compliance management extensions for Microsoft 365, Dynamics 365, Salesforce, and Google Workspace. In addition, the company offers software solutions for Microsoft 365, including microsoft teams, sharepoint online, exchange online, onedrive, project online, planner, yammer and other public folders. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvePoint generates revenue through a subscription-based model, offering various software-as-a-service (SaaS) products that cater to the needs of organizations using Microsoft 365 and other cloud platforms. Key revenue streams include annual and multi-year subscriptions for its data management solutions, which provide recurring income. Additionally, the company may earn revenue through professional services related to implementation, support, and training. Significant partnerships with Microsoft enhance AvePoint's market presence, as it integrates its solutions within the Microsoft ecosystem, driving user adoption and expanding its customer base. This strategic alignment with a leading cloud provider contributes substantially to AvePoint's earnings.
AvePoint Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strong set of operational and financial results: accelerating SaaS growth, record ARR and net new ARR, expanding margins, robust cash generation, large-account momentum, and clear product positioning around AI governance (AgentPulse). Management provided confident ARR and revenue guidance for 2026 while signaling deliberate investments in marketing, go-to-market, and platform scalability that may temper margin expansion in the near term. Headwinds discussed were mainly mix- and timing-related (migration impacts on GRR, services mix reducing gross margin, term license mix shifting revenue recognition, and some public sector timing), and management articulated clear plans and rationale to address them.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 total revenues of $114.7M, up 29% year-over-year (25% constant currency). Full-year 2025 revenues of $419.5M, up 27% reported (25% FX-adjusted).
SaaS Momentum and Shift to Recurring Revenue
Q4 SaaS revenue of $88.9M, up 37% year-over-year and representing 78% of Q4 revenue (33% SaaS growth on a constant currency basis). Full-year SaaS revenue of $319.2M, up 38% and 76% of total revenue. Overall recurring revenue was 87% of Q4 revenues.
ARR Acceleration and Record Net New ARR
Total ARR ended at $416.8M, up 27% year-over-year (26% FX-adjusted). Net new ARR in Q4 was $26.8M (+48% YoY) and full-year net new ARR was a record $89.8M (+44% YoY). Guidance for FY2026 ARR midpoint implies ~27% growth to ~$528M (FX-adjusted ~26%).
Profitability and Margin Expansion
Full-year 2025 non-GAAP operating income of $79.2M (18.9% margin) and GAAP operating income of $33.0M (7.9% margin). Q4 non-GAAP operating income of $22.9M (20% margin), representing >370 bps YoY expansion in the quarter. Rule of 40 finished 2025 at 46.
Strong Cash Position and Cash Flow
Ended year with $481M cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. Cash from operations for 2025 was $85.3M (20% margin) and free cash flow was $81.6M (19% margin).
Enterprise Customer Expansion
800+ enterprise momentum: 820 customers with ARR >$100K (24% YoY increase), 298 customers >$250K (record additions), 100+ customers >$500K, and 31 customers >$1M — signaling strong upsell and large-account traction.
Backlog / Contract Visibility
Remaining performance obligation (RPO) grew to $508.1M, up 36% year-over-year, signaling longer-term customer commitments to the platform.
Product Leadership and AI Positioning
Launched AgentPulse and agentic AI governance/data protection features; platform positioned as a governance/control layer for agentic AI. Gartner referenced AvePoint in M365 Copilot/agentic AI research. Strategic shift to bundled offerings and movement toward hybrid seat/consumption pricing.
Negative Updates
Slight Gross Margin Compression
Q4 gross margin was 74.2%, down from 75.5% a year ago, primarily due to a higher mix of services revenue which carries lower relative gross margins.
Customer Retention Pressure from Migration Mix
Reported Q4 gross retention rate (GRR) was 88% (90% excluding migration); management noted migration acted as a roughly two-point headwind to GRR and expects migration-driven dynamics could put modest pressure on GRR in 2026.
Term License & Maintenance Mix Trends
Term license and support revenue grew only 7% year-over-year in Q4 and represented 9% of Q4 revenue (down from 11% a year ago). Maintenance revenue declined to ~1% of total revenue and is continuing its expected decline. Management expects term license growth to be roughly flat in 2026, resulting in less upfront revenue recognition.
Public Sector / Federal Civilian Underperformance
Public sector (federal civilian) growth lagged North America overall; Fed/civilian was a weaker subsegment in 2025 even though other public sector areas (DoD, state & local) remain strategic priorities.
2026 Investment Year May Pressure Near-Term Margins
Management characterized 2026 as an investment year with meaningful increases in marketing spend and go-to-market investments; guidance implies relatively flat non-GAAP operating margins for 2026 as investments are made before anticipated longer-term benefits.
Free Cash Flow Timing and One-Time Items
Free cash flow was slightly affected by one-time tax payments (~$7M) and timing of receivables (notably some public sector invoices), contributing to FCF volatility versus expectations.
Company Guidance
For Q1 the company guided total revenues of $115.0M–$117.0M (≈25% YoY growth at the midpoint; ~20% constant‑currency) and non‑GAAP operating income of $19.5M–$20.5M. For FY2026 AvePoint expects total ARR of $525.1M–$531.1M (≈27% YoY at the midpoint; 26% FX‑adjusted), total revenues of $509.4M–$517.4M (≈22% YoY at the midpoint; ~20% constant‑currency), and full‑year non‑GAAP operating income of $92.6M–$96.6M (midpoint implies a Rule‑of‑40 of ~45). Management called 2026 an “investment year” with higher marketing spend while keeping the long‑term non‑GAAP operating margin target of 25–30%, expects stock‑based compensation to remain <10% of revenue and to decline (supporting GAAP margin expansion), and noted the ARR guide excludes a prior‑year $2.8M Identik Q1 contribution and reflects differences between ARR and revenue driven by slower services growth and a flatter term‑license mix.AvePoint Financial Statement Overview
Summary
AvePoint demonstrates a solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and improving profitability. The company maintains a robust balance sheet with low leverage and a healthy equity position. Cash flows are positive, supporting operational and strategic initiatives. While profitability metrics have improved, further enhancements in net margins and operational efficiency could bolster financial health.Income Statement
AvePoint's income statement shows a positive trajectory with a consistent increase in revenue over the years, highlighted by a 5.6% growth in the TTM period. The company has improved its profitability, transitioning from negative net margins to a positive 0.5% in the TTM. Gross profit margins remain strong at approximately 74.5%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin is still relatively low, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.024 in the TTM, indicating financial stability and low leverage risk. The return on equity has turned positive, albeit modestly, at 0.51%, showing a recovery from previous negative returns. The equity ratio is solid, suggesting a healthy balance between assets and equity.80
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend in free cash flow growth, with a 4.2% increase in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, indicating that operating cash flows are covering net income adequately. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.96, suggesting that most of the net income is being converted into free cash flow, which is a positive sign for liquidity.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 393.99M | 330.48M | 271.82M | 232.34M | 191.91M | 151.53M |
| Gross Profit | 293.55M | 247.96M | 194.37M | 166.06M | 139.25M | 111.24M |
| EBITDA | 34.05M | 12.55M | -10.66M | -30.12M | -52.25M | -14.38M |
| Net Income | 1.97M | -29.09M | -21.73M | -41.63M | -35.22M | -17.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 743.51M | 519.05M | 442.58M | 415.53M | 388.74M | 169.05M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 471.64M | 290.90M | 226.88M | 229.81M | 270.63M | 70.10M |
| Total Debt | 11.34M | 16.53M | 14.72M | 16.74M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 276.71M | 248.11M | 217.74M | 172.38M | 133.17M | 173.94M |
| Stockholders Equity | 466.81M | 269.15M | 210.60M | 229.15M | 250.35M | -7.95M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 83.20M | 85.85M | 31.17M | -6.24M | 2.57M | 18.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 88.36M | 88.89M | 34.69M | -774.00K | 5.03M | 19.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.42M | -2.60M | -5.65M | -21.45M | -3.38M | 1.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 168.14M | -15.54M | -33.67M | -17.15M | 198.62M | 35.56M |
AvePoint Technical Analysis
Negative
10.23
Price Trends
12.35
Negative
13.07
Negative
15.29
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.61
Negative
34.28
Neutral
22.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVPT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.76, below the 50-day MA of 12.35, and below the 200-day MA of 15.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVPT.
AvePoint Risk Analysis
AvePoint disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AvePoint reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AvePoint Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.02B | 43.78 | 19.10% | ― | 18.37% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $2.03B | 22.04 | 10.21% | ― | 19.28% | 6.16% | |
68 Neutral | $5.74B | 23.59 | ― | ― | 14.20% | 204.86% | |
67 Neutral | $1.79B | 27.62 | 9.79% | ― | 10.58% | -45.52% | |
65 Neutral | $2.19B | -1,124.18 | 0.58% | ― | 24.71% | 99.52% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $2.18B | -63.29 | -9.95% | ― | 11.05% | 45.23% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.