Paccar (PCAR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $51.59B
• Dividend Yield: 4.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: -11.92%
• EPS Growth: -38.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Agricultural - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 1.37
• Shares Outstanding: 525,103,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,142,359
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,329,776
• PEG Ratio: -1.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.36
• 1Y Price Target: $102.00
• Price Target Upside: 4.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $109.00 ▲(11.76% Upside)

Paccar's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call, which highlight robust results and a positive market outlook. The technical analysis indicates mixed momentum, and the valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield. Potential risks include tariff uncertainties and challenges in the South American market.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Better than feared 2Q results and a more positive outlook than anticipated led to a relief rally.

Financial Performance

PACCAR has grown revenue at a 5-6% CAGR, which compares very favorably with industrials.

Valuation

PCAR shares are cheap versus growth, cheap versus history, cheap versus the market, and maybe a good outlet for cash leaving tech.

Negative Factors

Economic Environment

A potential U.S. recession and upcoming truck price increases due to tariffs could lead to further demand and volume degradation.

Market Position

Increased competition from companies like Volvo and Daimler Truck, which have different sourcing strategies, may affect PCAR's market position.

Regulatory and Tariff Risks

The uncertainty surrounding NOx emission regulations and potential additional costs may burden an already weakening customer base.

Paccar Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Paccar Inc. is a global leader in the design and manufacture of high-quality trucks, primarily under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The company operates in the commercial vehicle sector, focusing on the production of heavy-duty and medium-duty trucks, as well as providing aftermarket support services. Paccar also engages in the development of fuel-efficient engines and advanced vehicle technologies, catering to the evolving needs of the transportation industry.

How the Company Makes Money

Paccar generates revenue primarily through the sale of trucks, which includes heavy-duty and medium-duty vehicles. The company also earns income from aftermarket parts and services, which provide ongoing support and maintenance for its trucks. Additionally, Paccar's financial services division contributes to its revenue by offering financing solutions to customers for truck purchases. The company benefits from strong relationships with its dealer network, which enhances sales and service capabilities. Significant partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers in the automotive and technology sectors also play a role in driving innovation and efficiencies, thereby contributing to Paccar's earnings.

Paccar Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Paccar demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent profitability, efficient asset utilization, and robust cash generation. Despite a slight revenue decline, the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a healthy equity ratio, and cash flow is strong, supporting future investments.

Income Statement

Paccar's income statement shows solid profitability with a gross profit margin of 17.8% and a net profit margin of 10.7% for TTM. Despite a slight decline in revenue by 3.9% compared to the previous annual report, the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins at 13.3% and 16.0%, respectively. The consistent profitability and efficient cost management highlight the company's strong competitive position in the industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 42.2%, demonstrating a solid capital position. Return on equity is robust at 19.3%, showcasing effective utilization of shareholders' equity. However, the high absolute levels of debt could pose risks if interest rates rise or market conditions deteriorate.

Cash Flow

Paccar's cash flow statement is strong, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.68, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.18 suggests efficient conversion of earnings into cash. Although free cash flow declined by 18.4%, the company maintains a solid cash position, supporting future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	31.10B	33.65B	35.16B	28.84B	23.54B	18.72B
Gross Profit	5.48B	6.37B	7.25B	4.74B	3.28B	2.55B
EBITDA	5.06B	6.35B	6.63B	4.65B	3.27B	2.56B
Net Income	3.07B	4.16B	4.60B	3.01B	1.87B	1.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	44.09B	43.42B	40.82B	33.28B	29.51B	28.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.46B	9.84B	9.00B	6.31B	4.99B	4.97B
Total Debt	15.94B	15.89B	14.38B	11.68B	10.76B	11.31B
Total Liabilities	25.15B	25.91B	24.94B	20.11B	17.92B	17.87B
Stockholders Equity	18.94B	17.51B	15.88B	13.17B	11.59B	10.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.88B	2.90B	2.93B	1.64B	553.90M	1.35B
Operating Cash Flow	4.48B	4.64B	4.19B	3.03B	2.19B	2.99B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.93B	-4.49B	-2.87B	-2.03B	-1.36B	-1.88B
Financing Cash Flow	-969.60M	-123.10M	1.10B	304.90M	-882.90M	-1.81B

Paccar Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 97.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PCAR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 97.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.15, below the 50-day MA of 98.03, and below the 200-day MA of 99.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PCAR.

Paccar Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OSK	78 Outperform	$8.93B	14.01	15.52%	1.46%	0.41%	-3.90%
PCAR	73 Outperform	$51.59B	16.84	16.77%	4.09%	-11.92%	-38.21%
CAT	66 Neutral	$198.20B	21.51	52.73%	1.37%	-4.87%	-10.47%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.73B	15.32	7.39%	2.01%	2.86%	-14.57%
DE	63 Neutral	$127.94B	24.74	21.59%	1.33%	-20.63%	-34.82%
AGCO	60 Neutral	$8.28B	83.45	2.42%	1.38%	-24.27%	-76.31%
CNH	56 Neutral	$14.33B	17.44	10.79%	2.21%	-21.70%	-57.68%

Paccar Corporate Events

PACCAR Announces Executive Vice President Retirement

On September 2, 2025, PACCAR announced the retirement of Darrin C. Siver, Executive Vice President, effective January 5, 2026, after 32 years with the company. John N. Rich will continue his role as Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer and will also take on responsibilities for Peterbilt Motors Company. Laura J. Bloch will maintain her role as Senior Vice President for Kenworth Truck Company and PACCAR Parts, while also assuming responsibilities for Corporate Quality and Purchasing.