Paccar (PCAR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $52.35B
• Dividend Yield: 4%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: -11.92%
• EPS Growth: -38.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Agricultural - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 1.37
• Shares Outstanding: 525,103,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,394,214
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,078,237
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.07
• 1Y Price Target: $103.00
• Price Target Upside: 4.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $112.00 ▲(14.03% Upside)

Paccar's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's solid profitability, efficient cash generation, and strategic investments in clean diesel and alternative powertrains position it well for future growth. Technical indicators and valuation metrics support a stable outlook, although challenges in South America and tariff uncertainties pose potential risks.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Better than feared 2Q results and a more positive outlook than anticipated led to a relief rally.

Financial Performance

PACCAR has grown revenue at a 5-6% CAGR, which compares very favorably with industrials.

Valuation

PCAR shares are cheap versus growth, cheap versus history, cheap versus the market, and maybe a good outlet for cash leaving tech.

Negative Factors

Economic Conditions

A potential U.S. recession and upcoming truck price increases due to tariffs could lead to further demand and volume degradation.

Market Competition

Increased competition from companies like Volvo and Daimler Truck, which have different sourcing strategies, may affect PCAR's market position.

Regulatory Issues

The uncertainty surrounding NOx emission regulations and potential additional costs may burden an already weakening customer base.

Paccar Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australia, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment also offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment. The company also manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Paccar generates revenue primarily through the sale of trucks, which includes heavy-duty and medium-duty vehicles. The company also earns income from aftermarket parts and services, which provide ongoing support and maintenance for its trucks. Additionally, Paccar's financial services division contributes to its revenue by offering financing solutions to customers for truck purchases. The company benefits from strong relationships with its dealer network, which enhances sales and service capabilities. Significant partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers in the automotive and technology sectors also play a role in driving innovation and efficiencies, thereby contributing to Paccar's earnings.

Paccar Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Paccar demonstrates strong financial performance with solid profitability, efficient asset utilization, and robust cash generation. Despite a slight revenue decline, the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins, a healthy balance sheet with moderate leverage, and a solid cash flow position.

Income Statement

Paccar's income statement shows solid profitability with a gross profit margin of 17.8% and a net profit margin of 10.7% for TTM. Despite a slight decline in revenue by 3.9% compared to the previous annual report, the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins at 13.3% and 16.0%, respectively. The consistent profitability and efficient cost management highlight the company's strong competitive position in the industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 42.2%, demonstrating a solid capital position. Return on equity is robust at 19.3%, showcasing effective utilization of shareholders' equity. However, the high absolute levels of debt could pose risks if interest rates rise or market conditions deteriorate.

Cash Flow

Paccar's cash flow statement is strong, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.68, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.18 suggests efficient conversion of earnings into cash. Although free cash flow declined by 18.4%, the company maintains a solid cash position, supporting future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.36B	33.65B	35.16B	28.84B	23.54B	18.72B
Gross Profit	5.92B	6.37B	7.25B	4.74B	3.28B	2.55B
EBITDA	5.71B	6.35B	6.63B	4.65B	3.27B	2.56B
Net Income	3.47B	4.16B	4.60B	3.01B	1.87B	1.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	42.72B	43.42B	40.82B	33.28B	29.51B	28.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.34B	9.84B	9.00B	6.31B	4.99B	4.97B
Total Debt	15.65B	15.89B	14.38B	11.68B	10.76B	11.31B
Total Liabilities	24.70B	25.91B	24.94B	20.11B	17.92B	17.87B
Stockholders Equity	18.02B	17.51B	15.88B	13.17B	11.59B	10.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.36B	2.90B	2.93B	1.64B	553.90M	1.35B
Operating Cash Flow	4.08B	4.64B	4.19B	3.03B	2.19B	2.99B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.35B	-4.49B	-2.87B	-2.03B	-1.36B	-1.88B
Financing Cash Flow	-377.80M	-123.10M	1.10B	304.90M	-882.90M	-1.81B

Paccar Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 98.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PCAR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 98.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.24, above the 50-day MA of 96.00, and below the 200-day MA of 100.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PCAR.

Paccar Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PCAR	81 Outperform	$52.35B	17.09	16.77%	4.00%	-11.92%	-38.21%
OSK	78 Outperform	$8.88B	13.93	15.52%	1.38%	0.41%	-3.90%
AGCO	69 Neutral	$8.31B	83.73	2.42%	1.35%	-24.27%	-76.31%
CAT	69 Neutral	$193.35B	20.99	52.73%	1.41%	-4.87%	-10.47%
Sector *	66 Neutral	£2.68B	13.05	3.30%	3.25%	2.40%	-22.21%
DE	64 Neutral	$129.68B	25.03	21.59%	1.30%	-20.63%	-34.82%
CNH	55 Neutral	$15.20B	18.49	10.79%	2.06%	-21.70%	-57.68%

Paccar Corporate Events

Paccar Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation

On April 28, 2025, Paccar‘s Board of Directors approved Long Term Performance Cash Awards for its executive officers for the 2022-2024 cycle, significantly impacting their total compensation. The annual meeting of stockholders held on April 29, 2025, resulted in the election of directors and approval of executive compensation, while a proposal on excessive golden parachutes was not passed.