Caterpillar (CAT)
NYSE:CAT
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Caterpillar
(NYSE:CAT)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$915.00
▲(15.15% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (especially free cash flow and solid margins) and favorable technical momentum with the stock trading above key moving averages. Offsetting these positives are a less attractive valuation (high P/E and low yield) and near-term earnings headwinds from tariffs and investment-driven cost pressure despite strong backlog and guidance.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Caterpillar's persistently strong operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, capacity buildouts and shareholder returns. High cash conversion (FCF/net income ~0.88x) supports investments and buybacks through equipment cycles, enhancing financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage near ~2.0x debt-to-equity reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and interest-rate risk, limiting maneuverability for opportunistic investments. The inconsistency in reported TTM debt details also weakens confidence in leverage metrics and warrants monitoring as capex and buybacks continue.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Caterpillar's persistently strong operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, capacity buildouts and shareholder returns. High cash conversion (FCF/net income ~0.88x) supports investments and buybacks through equipment cycles, enhancing financial resilience.
Read all positive factors
Caterpillar Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes income based on product or service type, highlighting which offerings drive the most sales and where diversification or concentration risks may lie.
Categorizes income based on product or service type, highlighting which offerings drive the most sales and where diversification or concentration risks may lie.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCaterpillar (CAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$401.93B
Dividend Yield0.98%
Average Volume (3M)2.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.2
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth11.85%
EPS Growth-2.07%
CountryUS
Employees112,900
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAgricultural - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)20.18
Shares Outstanding460,637,020
10 Day Avg. Volume2,602,866
30 Day Avg. Volume2,482,480
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.04
Price to Book (P/B)12.54
Price to Sales (P/S)3.95
P/FCF Ratio26.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$982.40Price Target Upside23.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)24.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$76.25B
Caterpillar Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines worldwide. Its Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, backhoe loaders, compactors, cold planers,...
How the Company Makes Money
Caterpillar makes money primarily by selling equipment, engines/power systems, and related parts and services, with most sales executed through its independent global dealer network.
1) Machinery revenue (equipment sales): A major revenue stream ...
Caterpillar Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: double-digit revenue growth (22% YoY), record backlog (+79% YoY), record orders, improved full-year outlook (low double-digit revenue growth), raised long-term targets and a major capacity expansion to capture data center and prime power demand. These positives were balanced against meaningful near-term headwinds from tariffs (Q1 ~$600M; full-year $2.2–$2.4B), margin pressure in Resource Industries (profit down 39%, margin down ~700 bps) and elevated near-term costs tied to capacity expansion, depreciation and strategic investments. Overall the business trajectory and balance sheet strength, together with record backlog and cash returns to shareholders, outweigh the tariff and timing challenges, and management increased long-term growth ambition while preserving financial discipline.Positive Updates
Revenue and Volume Growth
Sales and revenues of $17.4 billion, up 22% year-over-year, driven by higher sales volume and favorable price realization across segments.
Negative Updates
Significant Tariff Headwind
Tariffs remain a material drag: Q1 tariff costs of ~$600 million and full-year 2026 tariff cost guidance of $2.2–$2.4 billion. Tariffs materially reduced segment margins (e.g., Construction Industries ~550 bps impact; Power & Energy ~270 bps; Resource Industries ~500 bps).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Volume Growth
Sales and revenues of $17.4 billion, up 22% year-over-year, driven by higher sales volume and favorable price realization across segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Caterpillar guided to low‑double‑digit full‑year 2026 sales and revenues growth with adjusted operating profit margin expected near the bottom of its progressive target range (but in the top half excluding tariff costs), and updated its 2026 tariff estimate to $2.2–$2.4 billion (Q1 tariff impact ~$600M; Q2 ~ $700M with ~50% in Construction Industries and ~25% each in Power & Energy and Resource Industries). For Q2 the company expects continued strong sales growth and favorable price realization across all three primary segments, higher margins excluding tariffs (partially offset by higher manufacturing, SG&A and R&D), and continued services growth; backlog entering the year was a record $63 billion (up $28B, +79% YoY). Financial assumptions include MP&E free cash flow higher than 2025 (2025 was ~$9.5B) with nearly $600M in MP&E FCF in Q1, 2026 CapEx ~ $3.5B (Q1 CapEx ~$700M), MP&E CapEx averaging ~4–5% of MP&E sales through 2030, planned share returns (deployed $5.7B in Q1 including a $4.5B ASR), restructuring of ~$300–$350M for 2026, and an estimated annual effective tax rate of ~23% (ex‑discrete items). Longer term, management raised its 2024–2030 enterprise sales CAGR target to 6–9%, increased the 2030 power generation sales target to >3x 2024 levels, and is expanding large reciprocating engine capacity from ~2x 2024 to nearly 3x (adding roughly 15 GW of annual capacity when complete).Caterpillar Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 70.75B | 67.59B | 64.81B | 67.06B | 59.43B | 50.97B |
| Gross Profit | 23.01B | 21.86B | 23.32B | 23.26B | 17.51B | 15.00B |
| EBITDA | 15.31B | 14.86B | 16.04B | 15.71B | 11.41B | 11.04B |
| Net Income | 9.42B | 8.87B | 10.79B | 10.34B | 6.71B | 6.49B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 95.55B | 98.58B | 87.76B | 87.48B | 81.94B | 82.79B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.07B | 9.98B | 6.89B | 6.98B | 7.00B | 9.25B |
| Total Debt | 43.07B | 43.33B | 38.41B | 37.88B | 36.99B | 37.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 76.89B | 77.27B | 68.27B | 67.97B | 66.05B | 66.28B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.66B | 21.32B | 19.49B | 19.49B | 15.87B | 16.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.45B | 10.27B | 8.82B | 9.79B | 5.17B | 4.73B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.32B | 11.74B | 12.04B | 12.88B | 7.77B | 7.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.31B | -4.71B | -2.45B | -5.87B | -2.54B | -3.08B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.35B | -3.90B | -9.56B | -6.93B | -7.28B | -4.19B |
Caterpillar Technical Analysis
Neutral
794.65
Price Trends
791.28
Positive
735.60
Positive
619.49
Positive
Market Momentum
25.27
Positive
54.24
Neutral
21.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 794.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 877.42, above the 50-day MA of 791.28, and above the 200-day MA of 619.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 25.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CAT.
Caterpillar Risk Analysis
Caterpillar disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caterpillar reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caterpillar Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $401.93B | 32.20 | 47.51% | 0.98% | 11.85% | -2.07% | |
68 Neutral | $7.84B | 53.64 | 12.85% | 1.56% | -0.92% | -4.01% | |
65 Neutral | $151.38B | 54.83 | 18.93% | 1.34% | -2.66% | -21.47% | |
65 Neutral | $58.75B | 25.13 | 12.81% | 3.83% | -14.13% | -28.77% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $8.31B | 38.18 | 17.90% | 1.10% | -3.80% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $12.97B | 487.54 | 4.99% | 2.67% | -4.04% | -62.88% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CAT
Caterpillar
872.56
533.72
157.51%
AGCO
Agco
114.77
13.81
13.68%
CNH
CNH Industrial
10.46
-2.39
-18.60%
DE
Deere
560.46
52.46
10.33%
OSK
Oshkosh
125.80
28.41
29.17%
PCAR
Paccar
111.64
19.64
21.35%
Caterpillar Corporate Events
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Caterpillar Delivers Strong First-Quarter 2026 Revenue and Earnings
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Caterpillar reported a strong first quarter of 2026 on April 30, with sales and revenues rising 22% year-on-year to $17.4 billion, driven primarily by a $2.3 billion increase in sales volume and $426 million in favorable pricing. Profit per share ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Caterpillar Adds Lynn Good as Board Nominee
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Caterpillar’s board of directors moved to expand and refresh its governance bench by selecting Lynn Good as a director nominee for election at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Subject to shareholder approval, her ap...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Caterpillar Names Veteran Executive Kyle Epley as CFO
Positive
Apr 10, 2026
Caterpillar Inc. announced on April 8, 2026, that long-serving Chief Financial Officer Andrew Bonfield will retire effective Oct. 1, 2026, after eight years marked by record financial performance and a reinforced operating model. He will remain CF...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Caterpillar Realigns Rail Unit Within Resource Industries Segment
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
Caterpillar said it moved its Rail division from the Power Energy segment into Resource Industries effective Jan. 1, 2026, a realignment aimed at better mirroring its operational structure and how the CEO evaluates performance and deploys capital...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.