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Deere (DE)
NYSE:DE
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Deere (DE) AI Stock Analysis

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DE

Deere

(NYSE:DE)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$563.00
▲(10.27%Upside)
Deere's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic investments amid declining sales and challenging market conditions. While technical analysis shows a neutral trend, valuation metrics suggest the stock may be overvalued. Recent corporate events introduce additional uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Growth Strategy
Deere aims to continue to grow share with Brazil-specific equipment, more technology and expanding dealership support.
Market Position
Deere & Company has established a dominant position in the Brazilian Large Agriculture market, which was underestimated.
Technology and Innovation
Deere's growing Precision Agriculture capabilities and investments in the region position it to outperform peers in Brazil.
Negative Factors
Capital Purchases
There is skepticism about whether growers will broadly return to make large capital purchases soon, leading to a neutral stance on the current valuation.
Interest Rates
High interest rates continue to be an issue in the farm sector, with little relief expected in government programs.
Tariffs
China announced retaliatory tariffs on US goods totaling $14B in annual sales, primarily targeting farm equipment.

Deere (DE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Deere Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDeere & Company (DE), commonly known as John Deere, is a global leader in the manufacturing of agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery. The company operates through three primary segments: Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. Deere's core products include a wide range of equipment such as tractors, combine harvesters, cotton pickers, and lawn care equipment, as well as advanced technology solutions for precision agriculture and construction management.
How the Company Makes MoneyDeere & Company generates revenue primarily through the sale of its agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery. The Agriculture and Turf segment is the largest contributor, driven by the demand for agricultural equipment and technology solutions that enhance farming efficiency and productivity. The Construction and Forestry segment supports revenue through the sale of heavy equipment used in construction, road building, and forestry operations. Additionally, Deere provides financial services, including leasing and financing options to customers purchasing equipment, which also contributes to its revenue streams. The company benefits from strong brand recognition, a global dealer network, and technological innovations that enhance equipment performance and integration.

Deere Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsDeere's revenue across all regions has been declining, with the U.S. and Western Europe showing significant drops. The earnings call highlights that despite strong operational performance, global uncertainties and tariff impacts are pressuring sales. However, Deere's strategic investments in U.S. manufacturing and precision technology could mitigate these challenges. The company's commitment to innovation and technology adoption, like the Precision Essentials package, suggests a focus on long-term growth, even as current revenues face headwinds.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Deere Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.95%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While Deere exhibited strong operational performance and significant strategic investments in technology and U.S. manufacturing, the company faced substantial challenges with declining sales, tariff impacts, and global market uncertainties.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceptional Execution Amidst Market Challenges
Deere delivered a better-than-expected second quarter with an 18.8% margin for equipment operations, demonstrating exceptional execution despite challenging market dynamics.
Strong Operational Performance
Net sales increased sequentially, and margins were down year-over-year but grew sequentially to just under 19% for the quarter, showcasing strong operational performance.
Significant Investment in U.S. Manufacturing
John Deere plans to invest $20 billion in the U.S. over the next decade, focusing on new product development, cutting-edge technologies, and advanced manufacturing.
Expansion of Precision Technology
The Precision Essentials package saw strong adoption, with nearly 10,000 orders globally in the first half of fiscal 2025, exceeding the entire fiscal 2024 order count in just six months.
Continued Growth in Precision Ag Solutions
In 2025, over 1,000 new orders for See & Spray were received, increasing the population of machines significantly and demonstrating greater utilization and investment by customers.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Sales and Revenues
Net sales and revenues were down 16% to $12.763 billion, with net sales for the equipment operations down 18% to $11.171 billion compared to the same quarter last year.
Impact of Tariffs
The company faced approximately $100 million in incremental tariff headwinds during the quarter, with a forecasted pre-tax tariff impact of over $500 million for fiscal year 2025.
Challenges in Construction and Forestry Segment
Net sales for the Construction and Forestry segment declined roughly 23% year-over-year to $2.947 billion due to lower shipment volumes and an unfavorable sales mix.
Global Uncertainty Affecting Customer Sentiment
Global uncertainty continues to weigh on customer sentiment across end markets, impacting order activity for both construction and compact construction equipment.
Company Guidance
During Deere & Company's second quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, several key metrics were highlighted. The company reported net sales and revenues down 16% to $12.763 billion, with equipment operations net sales down 18% to $11.171 billion. Despite these declines, Deere achieved an operating margin of 18.8% for equipment operations, attributed to better-than-expected sales and favorable production costs. Net income attributable to Deere was $1.804 billion or $6.64 per diluted share. In the production and precision Ag segment, net sales decreased by 21% to $5.23 billion, resulting in a 22% operating margin. For the small Ag and Turf segment, net sales dropped 6% to $2.994 billion, with a 19.2% operating margin. The construction and forestry segment saw a 23% decline in net sales to $2.947 billion, with a 12.9% operating margin. The company also faced $100 million in tariff headwinds during the quarter and anticipates a total tariff impact of over $500 million for the fiscal year. Despite these challenges, Deere remains committed to investing in technology and manufacturing, with plans to invest $20 billion in the U.S. over the next decade.

Deere Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Deere maintains strong profitability and efficient cash flow management, with solid operating margins and a high return on equity. However, revenue contraction and high debt levels present potential long-term risks.
Income Statement
80
Positive
Deere shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of over 38% and a solid net profit margin of around 13% in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, revenue has declined over the past year, impacting overall growth prospects. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, indicating operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 0.96 in the TTM. Return on Equity stands at a strong 23.3%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio of 22.8% suggests a reliance on debt financing, which poses a potential risk in economic downturns.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Deere demonstrates robust cash flow management with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.57, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.77, highlighting good conversion of earnings into free cash flow. Despite a slight decline in free cash flow growth, the company maintains healthy liquidity.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue50.52B60.25B51.28B43.03B34.72B
Gross Profit19.50B22.31B15.73B13.71B10.86B
EBITDA14.67B17.48B12.08B10.64B7.25B
Net Income7.10B10.17B7.13B5.96B2.75B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets107.32B104.09B90.03B84.11B75.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments8.48B8.40B5.51B8.74B7.71B
Total Debt65.46B63.69B52.20B48.73B46.30B
Total Liabilities84.39B82.20B69.67B65.68B62.15B
Stockholders Equity22.84B21.79B20.26B18.43B12.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.43B4.12B911.00M5.15B4.83B
Operating Cash Flow9.23B8.59B4.70B7.73B7.48B
Investing Cash Flow-6.46B-8.75B-8.48B-5.75B-3.32B
Financing Cash Flow-2.72B2.81B826.00M-1.08B-980.00M

Deere Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price510.56
Price Trends
50DMA
511.19
Negative
100DMA
491.25
Positive
200DMA
465.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.44
Negative
RSI
50.36
Neutral
STOCH
53.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 510.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 509.18, below the 50-day MA of 511.19, and above the 200-day MA of 465.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE.

Deere Risk Analysis

Deere disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Deere reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Deere Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (71)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$8.40B13.1015.52%1.49%0.41%-3.90%
77
Outperform
$50.66B16.5416.77%4.10%-11.92%-38.21%
75
Outperform
$201.62B20.8955.67%1.34%-5.58%-7.37%
71
Outperform
¥257.47B14.378.45%2.83%6.40%12.21%
70
Outperform
$135.68B24.2424.07%1.26%-22.26%-37.83%
69
Neutral
$8.48B85.402.42%1.02%-24.27%-76.31%
66
Neutral
$15.58B18.9710.79%2.00%-21.71%-57.68%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DE
Deere
510.56
170.51
50.14%
AGCO
Agco
114.30
27.74
32.05%
CAT
Caterpillar
433.70
121.84
39.07%
CNH
CNH Industrial
12.53
2.96
30.93%
OSK
Oshkosh
136.84
40.49
42.02%
PCAR
Paccar
96.34
8.07
9.14%

Deere Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Deere Announces Board Changes After Sherry M. Smith’s Passing
Negative
Jul 7, 2025

On July 7, 2025, Deere & Company announced the passing of Sherry M. Smith, a valued board member since 2011. Her leadership and strategic vision significantly impacted the company, and her absence will be deeply felt. In response, the board reduced its size to ten members and appointed R. Preston Feight as the new Lead Director.

The most recent analyst rating on (DE) stock is a Hold with a $400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Deere stock, see the DE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 05, 2025