Agco (AGCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.38B
• Dividend Yield: 1.35%
• Average Volume (3M): 885.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 84.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -24.27%
• EPS Growth: -76.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Agricultural - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 1.35
• Shares Outstanding: 74,620,224
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 850,915
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 885,886
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 48.58
• 1Y Price Target: $119.69
• Price Target Upside: 5.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $123.00 ▲(8.68% Upside)

AGCO's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong cash flow but declining sales and profitability. Technical analysis shows positive momentum, while valuation suggests potential overvaluation. The earnings call and corporate events provide some positive outlook, but challenges in key markets remain significant.

Positive Factors

Growth Prospects

AGCO plans to achieve long-term growth through autonomous farm capabilities and a full range of retrofit and OEM sales.

Market Opportunities

AGCO is well-positioned to benefit from a likely recovery in Europe and South America, which is expected to gain momentum.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

AGCO is guiding to a very weak and well-below-consensus Q1 forecast with break-even EPS.

Inventory Challenges

AGCO is still dealing with above-target inventory levels, particularly in North and South America.

Market Pressures

AGCO expects high horsepower equipment in North America to decline by approximately 25%, indicating continued market pressure.

Agco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment and related replacement parts worldwide. It offers horsepower tractors for row crop production, soil cultivation, planting, land leveling, seeding, and commercial hay operations; utility tractors for small- and medium-sized farms, as well as for dairy, livestock, orchards, and vineyards; and compact tractors for small farms, specialty agricultural industries, landscaping, equestrian, and residential uses. The company also provides grain storage bins and related drying and handling equipment systems; seed-processing systems; swine and poultry feed storage and delivery; ventilation and watering systems; and egg production systems and broiler production equipment. In addition, it offers round and rectangular balers, loader wagons, self-propelled windrowers, forage harvesters, disc mowers, spreaders, rakes, tedders, and mower conditioners for harvesting and packaging vegetative feeds used in the beef cattle, dairy, horse, and renewable fuel industries. Further, the company provides implements, including disc harrows leveling seed beds and mixing chemicals with the soils; heavy tillage to break up soil and mix crop residue into topsoil; field cultivators that prepare smooth seed bed and destroy weeds; drills for small grain seeding; planters and other planting equipment; and loaders. Additionally, it offers combines for harvesting grain crops, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice; and application equipment, such as self-propelled, three- and four-wheeled vehicles, and related equipment for liquid and dry fertilizers and crop protection chemicals, and for after crops emerge from the ground, as well as produces diesel engines, gears, and generating sets. The company markets its products under the Challenger, Fendt, GSI, Massey Ferguson, and Valtra brands through a network of independent dealers and distributors. AGCO Corporation was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

AGCO generates revenue primarily through the sale of agricultural equipment and machinery. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of new and used equipment, parts, and accessories. Additionally, AGCO offers financing solutions to its customers, which also contributes to its earnings. The company has established significant partnerships with dealers and distributors worldwide, facilitating market access and service delivery. AGCO's commitment to innovation, reflected in its investment in precision agriculture technologies and smart farming solutions, also enhances its competitive edge and revenue potential in the agricultural sector.

Agco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGCO's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows challenges with declining revenue and profitability, yet historical performance indicates potential for recovery. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, and cash flow generation is robust, providing stability.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a significant decline in revenue and profitability compared to the previous year, with a slight gross profit margin of 24.29% and a net profit margin of 0.98%. The EBIT margin is low at 0.58%, indicating struggles in operational efficiency. However, historical data demonstrates strong performance in 2023 with a gross profit margin of 26.21% and a net profit margin of 8.13%, suggesting potential for recovery.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a strong equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.32 in the TTM, reflecting low leverage, which is a positive sign of financial health. Return on equity (ROE) is low at 2.39% in the TTM due to declining net income, but the equity ratio is solid at 33.87%, indicating a strong capital structure. The company's past performance shows better profitability and efficiency, suggesting potential for improvement.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows robust operating cash flows with a ratio of operating cash flow to net income at 9.82 in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to profit. The free cash flow has grown significantly, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 6.90, highlighting efficient cash management. Historical data supports this trend, demonstrating consistent free cash flow generation and prudent capital expenditure management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.17B	11.66B	14.41B	12.65B	11.14B	9.15B
Gross Profit	2.47B	2.90B	3.78B	3.00B	2.57B	2.06B
EBITDA	212.30M	58.60M	1.69B	1.57B	1.30B	904.10M
Net Income	99.60M	-424.80M	1.17B	889.60M	897.00M	427.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.31B	11.19B	11.42B	10.10B	9.18B	8.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	783.90M	612.70M	595.50M	789.50M	889.10M	1.12B
Total Debt	3.10B	2.83B	1.53B	1.59B	1.62B	1.74B
Total Liabilities	7.84B	7.15B	6.76B	6.22B	5.74B	5.49B
Stockholders Equity	4.17B	3.74B	4.66B	3.88B	3.42B	2.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	687.20M	296.60M	585.00M	449.90M	413.10M	626.60M
Operating Cash Flow	977.90M	689.90M	1.10B	838.20M	682.90M	896.50M
Investing Cash Flow	335.70M	-1.65B	-545.70M	-496.80M	-311.10M	-241.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.19B	1.05B	-671.70M	-407.00M	-539.50M	22.70M

Agco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 113.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 113.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.57, above the 50-day MA of 107.59, and above the 200-day MA of 98.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGCO.

Agco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TEX	78 Outperform	$3.30B	18.74	9.45%	1.35%	-0.35%	-63.44%
OSK	78 Outperform	$8.87B	13.91	15.52%	1.40%	0.41%	-3.90%
DE	70 Outperform	$132.38B	25.55	21.59%	1.29%	-20.63%	-34.82%
CAT	69 Neutral	$191.04B	20.74	52.73%	1.39%	-4.87%	-10.47%
AGCO	68 Neutral	$8.38B	84.38	2.42%	1.35%	-24.27%	-76.31%
Sector *	58 Neutral	HK$13.99B	4.55	-2.78%	5.71%	2.20%	-57.37%
CNH	56 Neutral	$15.25B	18.55	10.79%	2.05%	-21.70%	-57.68%

Agco Corporate Events

AGCO Announces $1 Billion Share Repurchase Program

On July 9, 2025, AGCO Corporation announced a new share repurchase program authorized by its Board of Directors, allowing the company to buy back up to $1 billion of its common stock. This initiative is part of AGCO’s capital allocation strategy aimed at maximizing shareholder value while maintaining financial flexibility for business investments and preserving its investment-grade credit ratings. The program’s execution will depend on various factors, including market conditions and stock trading prices, and may be modified or discontinued at any time.

AGCO Extends Agreement with TAFE Until November 2025

On July 7, 2025, AGCO Corporation and Tractors and Farm Equipment Limited (TAFE) agreed to a fourth amendment to their existing Letter Agreement, extending its expiration date from July 15, 2025, to November 28, 2025. This extension aims to facilitate the completion of settlement agreements and the closing of the Buyback Agreement, resolving outstanding issues between the parties.

AGCO and TAFE Resolve Disputes with New Agreements

On June 30, 2025, AGCO Corporation and TAFE entered into multiple agreements to resolve ongoing disputes and redefine their partnership. These agreements include a settlement of legal claims, a transfer of the Massey Ferguson brand rights in India, Nepal, and Bhutan to TAFE, a buyback of AGCO’s shares in TAFE for $260 million, and a cooperation agreement that sets limitations on TAFE’s future actions regarding AGCO’s shares. These strategic moves are expected to streamline AGCO’s operations and potentially impact its market positioning in the agricultural machinery sector.