Agco (AGCO)
NYSE:AGCO
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Agco
(NYSE:AGCO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$118.00
â–²(1.40% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
AGCO scores as a balanced setup: financial performance is solid but notably cyclical with rising leverage and uneven cash-flow momentum, which caps the score. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, while technicals are mixed (near-term weakness but longer-term trend still positive). Earnings-call guidance underscores cost-savings and cash conversion, but industry softness and tariff/margin headwinds remain meaningful near-term risks.
Positive Factors
Aftermarket / Parts Resilience
A ~$1.9B parts base generates recurring, higher-margin revenue tied to installed equipment, insulating cash flow and margins from new‑equipment cyclicality. Durable aftermarket demand supports predictable service revenues, steadier cash conversion, and margin stability across down cycles.
Negative Factors
North America / Industry Demand Weakness
Prolonged weakness in large‑ag end markets materially reduces equipment volumes and revenue visibility. Given AGCO's exposure, sustained demand softness will pressure factory utilization, margins, and cash flow for multiple quarters until farm economics or replacement cycles recover.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Aftermarket / Parts Resilience
A ~$1.9B parts base generates recurring, higher-margin revenue tied to installed equipment, insulating cash flow and margins from new‑equipment cyclicality. Durable aftermarket demand supports predictable service revenues, steadier cash conversion, and margin stability across down cycles.
Read all positive factors
Agco (AGCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.26B
Dividend Yield1.1%
Average Volume (3M)781.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.7
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth-20.09%
EPS Growth121.28%
CountryUS
Employees24,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAgricultural - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.17
Shares Outstanding72,400,560
10 Day Avg. Volume819,190
30 Day Avg. Volume781,430
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio10.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$126.33Price Target Upside8.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)5.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.55B
Agco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment and related replacement parts worldwide. It offers horsepower tractors for row crop production, soil cultivation, planting, land leveling, seeding, and commercial hay operations;...
How the Company Makes Money
AGCO primarily makes money by selling agricultural equipment and related solutions to farmers and other agricultural customers through dealer/distributor networks. Its key revenue streams include: (1) New equipment sales: revenue from the sale of ...
Agco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Remaining Performance Obligations
Reflects the value of contracted work yet to be completed, offering a glimpse into future revenue streams and business stability.
Reflects the value of contracted work yet to be completed, offering a glimpse into future revenue streams and business stability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAgco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: materially improved cash generation, stronger margins at the trough, meaningful progress on precision ag (PTX) and aftermarket growth, and significant cost-savings execution are compelling positives. Offsetting these are pronounced industry softness (especially large ag in North America), a decline in adjusted EPS, tariff-driven margin pressure, and near-term profitability headwinds in North America and parts of South America. Management emphasizes disciplined production, continued structural transformation, and capital returns, but near-term industry and policy headwinds will mute performance until demand normalizes.Positive Updates
Strong quarterly and full-year operating margins
Adjusted operating margin of 10.1% in Q4 (up ~20 bps year-over-year) and full-year adjusted operating margin of 7.7%, described as among the best in company history.
Negative Updates
Soft industry demand, especially in North America
Industry retail trends: North America tractor sales down ~10% and combined unit sales down ~27% year-over-year in 2025; company expects North American large ag industry sales down ~15% in 2026 from already low 2025 levels.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong quarterly and full-year operating margins
Adjusted operating margin of 10.1% in Q4 (up ~20 bps year-over-year) and full-year adjusted operating margin of 7.7%, described as among the best in company history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AGCO guided full‑year 2026 net sales of $10.4–$10.7 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.50–$6.00, targeting adjusted operating margins around 7.5% (company cited ~7.58%), with production hours broadly flat year‑over‑year (modest H1 lift, modest H2 decline); assumptions include 2–3% pricing (with north of 1% already embedded), a ~2% FX benefit, engineering expense up ≈$50M (~5% of sales), incremental restructuring/efficiency savings of $40–$60M, capex ≈$350M, an effective tax rate of 32–34%, Q1 EPS of $0.40–$0.45, free‑cash‑flow conversion targeted at 75–100% of adjusted net income, an incremental tariff headwind of about $65M in 2026 (total tariff cost ≈$105M), and continued channel inventory discipline (dealer months ~4 in Europe, ~5 in South America vs a 3‑month target, ~7 in North America vs a 6‑month target) with planned North American underproduction roughly ~10% in H1; guidance assumes no material changes to existing trade measures.Agco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 10.08B | 11.66B | 14.41B | 12.65B | 11.14B |
| Gross Profit | 2.50B | 2.84B | 3.74B | 2.96B | 2.51B |
| EBITDA | 996.00M | 58.60M | 1.69B | 1.42B | 1.25B |
| Net Income | 726.50M | -424.80M | 1.17B | 889.60M | 897.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.93B | 11.19B | 11.42B | 10.10B | 9.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 861.80M | 612.00M | 595.00M | 787.50M | 882.20M |
| Total Debt | 2.69B | 2.78B | 1.53B | 1.59B | 1.62B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.36B | 7.15B | 6.76B | 6.22B | 5.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.27B | 3.74B | 4.66B | 3.88B | 3.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 740.20M | 296.60M | 585.00M | 449.90M | 413.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 988.10M | 689.90M | 1.10B | 838.20M | 682.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.30M | -1.65B | -545.70M | -496.80M | -311.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -729.20M | 1.05B | -671.70M | -407.00M | -539.50M |
Agco Technical Analysis
Neutral
116.37
Price Trends
123.17
Negative
114.49
Positive
111.19
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.94
Positive
40.59
Neutral
38.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGCO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 116.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 123.22, below the 50-day MA of 123.17, and above the 200-day MA of 111.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AGCO.
Agco Risk Analysis
Agco disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $326.49B | 30.12 | 45.10% | 0.98% | -1.51% | -9.69% | |
73 Outperform | $153.70B | 54.83 | 18.93% | 1.34% | -11.66% | -27.80% | |
67 Neutral | $6.77B | 15.89 | 11.16% | 1.24% | 4.60% | -65.73% | |
66 Neutral | $8.26B | 10.68 | 17.36% | 1.10% | -20.09% | 121.28% | |
66 Neutral | $9.06B | 12.46 | 14.57% | 1.56% | -2.28% | -0.53% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $12.97B | 22.56 | 6.58% | 2.67% | -18.10% | -65.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AGCO
Agco
116.37
20.08
20.85%
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Agco Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AGCO Updates 2026 Executive Annual Incentive Plan Framework
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 3, 2026, AGCO’s Talent and Compensation Committee approved amendments to the company’s 2026 Annual Incentive Plan, revising individual award opportunities, performance metrics and their weightings to align with the current ann...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AGCO Adds Agriscience Leader James Collins to Board
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 2, 2026, AGCO’s board voted to expand its size to ten directors until the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and appointed agriscience veteran James C. Collins Jr. as a director, effective April 1, 2026, for a term running through ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.