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Terex Corporation (TEX)
NYSE:TEX

Terex (TEX) AI Stock Analysis

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TEX

Terex

(NYSE:TEX)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
â–²(3.12% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven most by a mixed financial profile—improving free cash flow but compressed margins and higher leverage. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, while valuation is only moderate with a low dividend yield. Earnings-call guidance and merger synergies are positives, partially offset by tariffs, higher interest expense, and integration/execution risks.
Positive Factors
Improved free cash flow
Material FCF improvement and very strong cash conversion in 2025 indicate the business can self-fund capex, support integration costs and synergies, and de-lever over time. Durable cash generation strengthens financial flexibility and underpins longer-term capital allocation.
Completed REV merger and synergies
The REV acquisition materially diversifies revenue into specialty vehicles and increases scale. Planned synergies and governance integration should boost recurring earnings and margin resilience if execution holds, improving structural earnings mix over multiple years.
Strong bookings & backlog
High bookings and enlarged backlog provide multi‑quarter revenue visibility, smoothing cyclicality and supporting production planning. This backlog underpins near‑term revenue and cash flow conversion, improving predictability for operations and capex deployment.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
materially higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and interest risk. With elevated debt, the company has less buffer for cyclical downturns, making consistent deleveraging and cash‑flow conversion crucial to sustain investment and shareholder returns.
Compressed profit margins
Steady margin erosion reflects pressure from lower volumes, mix shifts and higher costs. Persistently lower margins reduce return on capital and the company's ability to absorb shocks, making long‑term profitability and ROE recovery dependent on pricing, productivity, and synergy delivery.
Tariff and commodity exposure
Structural tariff and raw‑material risks impair competitiveness and directly hit low‑margin Aerials. Even with partial hedging, sustained or expanding trade measures and steel cost volatility can depress margins and force price increases that may harm demand in key markets.

Terex (TEX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Terex Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTerex Corporation manufactures and sells aerial work platforms and materials processing machinery worldwide. It operates in two segments, Aerial Work Platforms (AWP) and Materials Processing (MP). The AWP segment designs, manufactures, services, and markets aerial work platform equipment, utility equipment, and telehandlers under the Terex and Genie brands. Its products include portable material lifts, portable aerial work platforms, trailer-mounted articulating booms, self-propelled articulating and telescopic booms, scissor lifts, utility equipment, and telehandlers, as well as related components and replacement parts for construction and maintenance of industrial, commercial, institutional, and residential buildings and facilities, utility and telecommunication lines, construction and foundation drilling applications, and other commercial operations, as well as in tree trimming and various infrastructure projects. The MP segment's materials processing and specialty equipment includes crushers, washing systems, screens, trommels, apron feeders, material handlers, pick and carry cranes, rough terrain cranes, tower cranes, wood processing, biomass and recycling equipment, concrete mixer trucks and concrete pavers, conveyors, and related components and replacement parts under the Terex, Powerscreen, Fuchs, EvoQuip, Canica, Cedarapids, CBI, Simplicity, Franna, Terex Ecotec, Finlay, Terex Washing Systems, Terex MPS, Terex Jaques, Terex Advance, ProStack, Terex Bid-Well, MDS, and Terex Recycling Systems brands and business lines. Its products are used in construction, infrastructure, and recycling projects; quarrying and mining, and material handling applications; maintenance applications to lift equipment or material; and landscaping and biomass production industries. The company offers financing solutions to assist customers in the rental, leasing, and acquisition of its products. Terex Corporation was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Norwalk, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyTerex generates revenue through the sale of its equipment and machinery, including both new and used products. Key revenue streams include direct sales to customers in construction, mining, and other industries, as well as rental services through a network of dealers and distributors. Additionally, the company earns income from aftermarket services, including parts sales and maintenance contracts, which provide recurring revenue over the life cycle of the equipment. Terex also engages in strategic partnerships with other manufacturers and suppliers, enhancing its product offerings and market reach, thus contributing to its overall earnings.

Terex Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call struck a constructive and positive tone: management highlighted a successful merger with REV Group that meaningfully strengthens scale and recurring earnings, material synergies ($75M target) and immediate integration progress, strong bookings and backlog across segments, improved free cash flow and cash conversion, and a pro forma 2026 outlook with revenue and EBITDA growth. Key challenges remain—legacy sales declines, tariff impacts (notably on Aerials), higher interest expense from recent acquisitions, modest near-term EPS dilution, and commodity/timing risks tied to long specialty vehicle backlogs—but management presented concrete mitigation plans (synergies, productivity, pricing, capacity expansion, hedges). On balance, the positives around strategic transformation, cash generation, bookings momentum and guided pro forma growth outweigh the manageable headwinds, assuming continued execution.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Completed Merger with REV Group
Closed merger with REV Group, adding ~ $2.5 billion of revenue and ~$230 million of adjusted EBITDA (most from low-cyclic end markets). Created a new specialty vehicle segment and expect $75 million run-rate synergies (roughly half to be delivered within 12 months and full amount by 2028). Included ~$28 million of synergies in the 2026 EBITDA outlook.
2025 Financial Performance and Cash Generation
Delivered 2025 EPS of $4.93 (in line with guidance), EBITDA of $635 million (11.7%), free cash flow of $325 million (up 71% YoY) and cash conversion of 147%. Q4 EPS $1.12 (up $0.35 YoY), Q4 EBITDA $141 million (10.6% of sales) and Q4 free cash flow $172 million (up $43 million YoY).
Strong Bookings and Backlog Across Segments
Company-wide Q4 bookings of $1.9 billion, up 32% YoY (pro forma). Aerials bookings ~$971 million, up 46% YoY; ES bookings grew 16% YoY in Q4; MP bookings up 24% YoY (32% excl. divested clean businesses). Environmental solutions backlog ~$1.1 billion; Aerials backlog ~$906 million.
Environmental Solutions Outperformance
ES Q4 sales $428 million, up 14.1% YoY (pro forma); full-year ES sales +12.7% pro forma to $1.7 billion. Q4 operating margin 18.5% (+90 bps YoY); full-year ES margin 18.8% (+220 bps pro forma). Strong utility and refuse truck demand and digital/waste solutions momentum.
Materials Processing Margin Recovery and Bookings
MP Q4 operating margin improved to 13.7% (highest of 2025) with Q4 sales of $428 million (down 2.5% YoY, but +2.8% excl. divested clean businesses). MP bookings increased 24% YoY (32% excl. divested), with backlog up $71 million ($100 million adjusted), setting up positive momentum for 2026.
2026 Pro Forma Outlook (Growth and Profitability)
Guidance expects 2026 pro forma sales ~5% higher to $7.5–$8.1 billion and pro forma EBITDA to grow ≈$100 million (≈12% YoY) to $930 million–$1.0 billion (≈12.4% margin at midpoint). EPS guidance $4.50–$5.00 (includes ~3% dilution from the merger).
Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet Discipline
2025 CapEx ~$118 million focused on automation/throughput; returned $98 million to shareholders (dividends and buybacks). Merger structured to maintain a strong balance sheet and flexibility; net leverage expected to improve during 2026. Average debt outstanding guidance ~ $2.7 billion with interest/other ~ $190 million for 2026 (pro forma).
Operational Actions: Capacity and Hedging
Announced ~20–30% capacity expansion in utilities (Waukesha) over next two years (roughly half coming online in 2026). Steel/HRC exposure: Q1–Q2 consumption hedged at 10–15% below forward prices to mitigate raw material risk.
Negative Updates
Legacy Sales Decline and Segment Volume Weakness
Legacy Terex sales declined 11% for the full year 2025. Full-year operating margin down 90 basis points vs. 2024 due to lower volumes in Aerials and MP and higher tariff costs. MP full-year sales declined 11.6% YoY.
Aerials Tariff Headwinds and Low Margins
Aerials faced expanded Section 232 tariff impacts implemented in August; tariffs could not be fully mitigated in period. Estimated incremental tariff headwind ≈ $60 million in 2026 versus 2025. Q4 Aerials operating margin was ~2.6% (low absolute level) and 2026 sales and margins expected to be similar/flat to 2025.
Interest Expense and Financing Costs Increased
Interest and other expenses for full year 2025 were $172 million, up $89 million YoY driven by financing costs associated with the ESG acquisition. Q4 interest/other $43 million, $4 million higher YoY. Expected interest/other expense ~ $190 million pro forma for 2026.
Modest EPS Dilution from REV Transaction
Merger with REV results in a modest ~3% dilutive effect on EPS for 2026 (EPS guidance $4.50–$5.00 vs legacy Terex $4.80–$5.20). Weighted average diluted share count is higher (111M weighted average; 115M full year).
Higher Expected Effective Tax Rate
Effective tax rate expected to increase to ~21% in 2026 (from 17.2% in 2025) driven by higher U.S. dollar income, which is expected to weigh on reported EPS relative to a lower tax rate year.
Long Specialty Vehicle Backlog and Need to Reduce Lead Times
Legacy REV backlog is roughly two years, creating operational focus on throughput. Management expects it may take up to ~2 years to normalize backlog coverage toward target ~1 year; backlog-driven dynamics require execution to convert orders to revenue.
Commodity and Tariff Uncertainty
Raw material (steel) price pressure and tariff exposure create risks to margin; while some hedges are in place for early 2026, management flagged the macro/geopolitical environment could change results negatively.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 on a pro forma basis to roughly 5% sales growth to $7.5–$8.1 billion and pro forma EBITDA up about $100 million to $930–$1,000 million (≈12.4% EBITDA margin at the midpoint), which includes roughly $28 million of synergies in 2026 toward a $75 million run‑rate by 2028; interest and other expense is expected at ≈$190 million (based on average debt of ~$2.7 billion), the effective tax rate ≈21%, EPS $4.50–$5.00 (modestly dilutive by ~3% with a weighted‑average share count of ~111 million / full‑year ~115 million), about 15% of full‑year EPS in Q1, and anticipated cash conversion of 80–90% of net income (including transaction and synergy costs) with net leverage improving over the year. Segment outlooks: Environmental Solutions mid‑single‑digit growth (Q4 ES sales $428M, FY ES sales ~$1.7B, Q4 ES op margin 18.5% / FY 18.8%, ES backlog ~$1.1B; ESG expected roughly flat), Materials Processing to inflect to high‑single‑digit growth (Q4 MP sales $428M, Q4 MP margin 13.7%, FY MP down 11.6% but backlog +$71M), Specialty Vehicles (new reportable segment) to grow high‑single‑digits from a pro‑forma ~$2.2B with roughly two years of backlog and meaningful margin improvement versus a prior‑year pro‑forma ~12.5% EBITDA margin, and Aerials to be roughly flat in sales and margins (Q4 bookings ~$971M, backlog ~$906M).

Terex Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Solid multi-year recovery and improved free cash flow in 2025, but profitability has cooled meaningfully since 2023 and leverage has increased sharply (higher debt-to-equity), reducing flexibility as returns decline.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Revenue has grown meaningfully versus 2020, with solid expansion in profitability through 2023. However, profitability has cooled recently: net margin fell from about 10.1% (2023) to 6.5% (2024) and ~4.1% (2025), and operating profitability also stepped down, suggesting weaker pricing, mix, or cost pressure despite modest revenue growth in 2025.
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Leverage has increased materially over the past two years: debt-to-equity moved from ~0.44 (2023) to ~1.48 (2024) and ~1.23 (2025). Equity has grown, but the higher debt load raises financial risk and reduces flexibility, particularly as returns on equity have declined from very strong levels in 2022–2023 to ~10.5% in 2025.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash generation is positive and improved in 2025, with free cash flow rising to ~$322M (up from ~$189M in 2024). Free cash flow consistently covers a large portion of earnings (roughly 58%–80% over the period), but cash conversion is not consistently strong relative to profitability and has fluctuated year to year, indicating some working-capital or cycle sensitivity.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.42B5.13B5.15B4.42B3.89B
Gross Profit1.05B1.07B1.18B871.00M757.40M
EBITDA633.00M579.00M699.00M463.00M365.50M
Net Income221.00M335.00M518.00M300.00M220.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.14B5.73B3.62B3.12B2.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments772.00M388.00M371.00M304.10M266.90M
Total Debt2.81B2.72B743.00M864.60M767.40M
Total Liabilities4.04B3.90B1.94B1.94B1.75B
Stockholders Equity2.10B1.83B1.67B1.18B1.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow322.00M189.00M332.10M151.60M233.70M
Operating Cash Flow440.00M326.00M459.30M261.20M293.40M
Investing Cash Flow32.00M-2.13B-114.40M-154.10M-102.20M
Financing Cash Flow-123.00M1.84B-287.80M-54.90M-580.10M

Terex Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price68.85
Price Trends
50DMA
59.62
Positive
100DMA
54.58
Positive
200DMA
51.72
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.87
Negative
RSI
61.97
Neutral
STOCH
70.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TEX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.06, above the 50-day MA of 59.62, and above the 200-day MA of 51.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TEX.

Terex Risk Analysis

Terex disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Terex reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Terex Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$357.45B40.2243.54%0.98%-1.51%-9.69%
73
Outperform
$11.13B17.6614.90%1.56%-2.28%-0.53%
68
Neutral
$174.72B36.4719.74%1.34%-11.66%-27.80%
67
Neutral
$7.83B20.3011.26%1.24%4.60%-65.73%
64
Neutral
$9.84B13.8418.13%1.10%-20.09%121.28%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
59
Neutral
$15.89B31.226.61%2.67%-18.10%-65.24%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TEX
Terex
68.85
27.24
65.45%
AGCO
Agco
135.94
39.02
40.27%
CAT
Caterpillar
768.23
430.52
127.48%
CNH
CNH Industrial
12.75
0.19
1.51%
DE
Deere
644.54
161.87
33.54%
OSK
Oshkosh
177.94
76.72
75.80%

Terex Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Terex Completes REV Group Merger, Expands Board Governance
Positive
Feb 2, 2026

On February 2, 2026, Terex completed its previously announced merger with REV Group, issuing Terex stock and cash as consideration for REV shares, converting REV equity awards into Terex awards and restricted cash, and resulting in REV shares being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange as the combined business continues under the Terex ticker. The transaction creates a larger, more diversified specialty equipment manufacturer that management says will benefit from $75 million of run-rate synergies by 2028 and a stronger free cash flow and leverage profile; it also reshapes Terex’s board, expanding it to 12 members, with two long-serving directors resigning (one moving to a director emeritus role) and five former REV directors joining as independent directors on key committees, signaling an integration that brings REV’s leadership directly into Terex’s governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEX) stock is a Hold with a $64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terex stock, see the TEX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Terex Shareholders Overwhelmingly Approve Merger With REV
Positive
Jan 29, 2026

On January 28, 2026, Terex and REV Group reported that their respective stockholders had overwhelmingly approved the merger between the two companies at special meetings held the same day, with more than 95% of Terex votes cast backing the stock issuance needed for the deal and over 80% of REV’s outstanding shares voting in favor of the merger. With all required shareholder approvals now secured and a strong mandate from investors, the companies said they expect to close the transaction in the first week of February 2026, positioning the combined business as a more diversified specialty equipment and vehicle manufacturer with a broader portfolio, enhanced financial flexibility, and anticipated synergies that management believes will create long-term value for shareholders, employees and customers.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEX) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terex stock, see the TEX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Terex Schedules Call to Review 2025 Year-End Results
Positive
Jan 29, 2026

On January 28, 2026, Terex Corporation announced it would host a conference call on February 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time to review its fourth quarter and year-end 2025 financial results, with President and CEO Simon Meester and CFO Jennifer Kong-Picarello leading the discussion. The company said it would release the financial results earlier that morning and make both the live webcast and a replay publicly accessible, signaling continued transparency and ongoing engagement with investors and other stakeholders around its financial performance and strategic progress.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEX) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terex stock, see the TEX Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Terex, REV Group supplement proxy amid merger litigation
Negative
Jan 20, 2026

On October 29, 2025, Terex Corporation entered into a merger agreement with REV Group that envisions an all-stock combination following the divestiture of Terex’s Aerials business, with Terex shareholders to own 61.5% and REV shareholders 38.5% of the combined company and Terex CEO John L. Garrison Jr.’s successor Simon Meester slated to lead the enlarged group. Since Terex filed its definitive joint proxy statement/prospectus on December 23, 2025 for a January 28, 2026 virtual special meeting to approve, among other matters, the Terex stock issuance for the transaction, several shareholder lawsuits and demand letters have challenged the adequacy of the deal disclosures and sought to delay or block the mergers, prompting Terex and REV, while denying any wrongdoing, to voluntarily supplement their proxy materials with additional detail on deal negotiations, valuation work by Barclays and J.P. Morgan, expected synergies and standalone financial projections, without changing the agreed consideration or meeting timetable, in an effort to reduce litigation risk and keep the transaction on track for completion.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEX) stock is a Buy with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terex stock, see the TEX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 14, 2026