Oshkosh (OSK)
NYSE:OSK
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Oshkosh
(NYSE:OSK)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$159.00
â–²(4.75% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/17/26
The score is driven by generally solid fundamentals (improving profitability/ROE and conservative leverage) and supportive valuation, partly offset by weak technical momentum and earnings-call near-term headwinds (tariffs, Access softness, and ramp-related margin volatility despite constructive 2026/2028 guidance).
Positive Factors
Vocational segment strength & backlog
A >$6.6B vocational backlog and high vocational margins provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and margin stability. Strong fire apparatus deliveries and municipal demand reduce near-term cyclicality, support aftermarket parts/service revenue, and underpin predictable cash flows for the core business.
Negative Factors
Significant tariff headwinds
An estimated ~$200M incremental tariff hit in 2026 meaningfully depresses margins and requires either higher customer pricing, absorption of costs, or engineering/reshoring investments. Persistent or escalating tariffs introduce structural margin risk and uncertainty into multi-year profitability and pricing strategies.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vocational segment strength & backlog
A >$6.6B vocational backlog and high vocational margins provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and margin stability. Strong fire apparatus deliveries and municipal demand reduce near-term cyclicality, support aftermarket parts/service revenue, and underpin predictable cash flows for the core business.
Read all positive factors
Oshkosh (OSK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.49B
Dividend Yield1.56%
Average Volume (3M)637.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.5
Beta (1Y)1.31
Revenue Growth-2.28%
EPS Growth-0.53%
CountryUS
Employees18,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAgricultural - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.26
Shares Outstanding62,548,630
10 Day Avg. Volume569,570
30 Day Avg. Volume637,014
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio13.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$170.50Price Target Upside12.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)11.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.90B
Oshkosh Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Oshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies worldwide. The company's Access Equipment segment provides aerial work platforms and telehandlers for use in various construction, industrial, institution...
How the Company Makes Money
Oshkosh makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling specialty vehicles and equipment, recognized as revenue when products are delivered/accepted under customer contracts. Its key revenue streams are: (1) Access Equipment: sales of aerial wo...
Oshkosh Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Oshkosh Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of encouraging operational and technological progress alongside near-term headwinds. Strengths include solid full-year revenue and EPS, robust vocational growth with a large backlog, transport production milestones and NGDV deployment, product innovation recognition at CES, disciplined capital allocation (repurchases and dividend), and a modestly improved 2026 consolidated outlook (~$11B sales and ~$11.50 EPS). Offsetting these positives are persistent tariff pressures (~$200M incremental in 2026), expected softness in the Access market (guide implies Access down ~6–7% and a weak Q1), Q4 margin compression (down 100 bps), NGDV ramp costs and mix-related volatility in vocational/refuse. Management expects the back half of 2026 to improve, but near-term earnings and margin volatility are likely. On balance, the positives (revenue/profitability, strong vocational momentum, technology awards, cash returns) modestly outweigh the lowlights, with the company maintaining a constructive multi-year view while acknowledging near-term risks.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Profitability
Fiscal 2025 revenue of $10.4 billion, adjusted operating income just over $1.0 billion, and adjusted EPS of $10.79 — results in line with guidance and supporting 2028 targets.
Negative Updates
Tariff Headwinds
Estimated incremental tariff impact for 2026 of about $200 million (approximately $160 million higher than 2025); Q4 tariff impact ~ $25 million across segments (about $20 million in Access). Guidance assumes current tariff rates remain in place.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue and Profitability
Fiscal 2025 revenue of $10.4 billion, adjusted operating income just over $1.0 billion, and adjusted EPS of $10.79 — results in line with guidance and supporting 2028 targets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Oshkosh guided 2026 consolidated sales of about $11.0 billion (mid‑single‑digit growth) with adjusted operating income a little over $1.0 billion and adjusted EPS of roughly $11.50, assuming current tariff rates (estimated ~$200 million impact, about $160 million higher than 2025) remain in place; they expect Q1 EPS to be roughly half of last year with a stronger second half. By segment they forecast Access sales of ~$4.2 billion with a ~10% adjusted operating margin (expecting to offset tariffs by year‑end), Vocational sales of ~$4.2 billion with ~17% margin, and Transport sales of ~$2.5 billion with ~4% margin (NGDV representing about half of Transport revenue and ramping through the year). Corporate and other costs are estimated at ~$180 million, the effective tax rate ~24.5%, CapEx ~ $200 million, and free cash flow ~$550–$650 million (~80% of net income); the company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share, will continue share repurchases, and reiterated its 2028 adjusted EPS target of $18–$22 (with Transport margin progress toward ~10% by 2028).Oshkosh Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 10.42B | 10.73B | 9.66B | 8.28B | 7.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.76B | 1.97B | 1.68B | 1.05B | 1.27B |
| EBITDA | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.03B | 436.60M | 697.50M |
| Net Income | 647.00M | 681.40M | 598.00M | 173.90M | 508.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.07B | 9.42B | 9.13B | 7.73B | 6.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 479.80M | 204.90M | 125.40M | 805.90M | 995.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.54B | 961.80M | 772.50M | 604.70M | 819.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.54B | 5.27B | 5.42B | 4.54B | 3.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.53B | 4.15B | 3.71B | 3.19B | 3.20B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 618.00M | 269.10M | 274.30M | 331.80M | 1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 783.40M | 550.10M | 599.60M | 601.30M | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -204.90M | -388.80M | -1.29B | -300.40M | -245.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -315.90M | -75.10M | 3.40M | -485.00M | -180.40M |
Oshkosh Technical Analysis
Positive
151.79
Price Trends
157.65
Negative
146.15
Positive
137.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.06
Negative
50.94
Neutral
85.74
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 151.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.95, below the 50-day MA of 157.65, and above the 200-day MA of 137.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OSK.
Oshkosh Risk Analysis
Oshkosh disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oshkosh reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oshkosh Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.14B | 19.44 | 9.32% | 0.69% | -2.73% | -2.91% | |
67 Neutral | $7.18B | 15.89 | 11.16% | 1.24% | 4.60% | -65.73% | |
66 Neutral | $9.49B | 12.46 | 14.57% | 1.56% | -2.28% | -0.53% | |
66 Neutral | $8.78B | 10.68 | 17.36% | 1.10% | -20.09% | 121.28% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $1.15B | 29.53 | 14.01% | 1.24% | 11.41% | 13.05% | |
56 Neutral | $14.36B | 22.56 | 6.58% | 2.67% | -18.10% | -65.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
OSK
Oshkosh
151.79
66.96
78.94%
AGCO
Agco
121.23
36.26
42.68%
ALG
Alamo Group
176.89
8.70
5.17%
CNH
CNH Industrial
11.57
0.16
1.40%
LNN
Lindsay
110.17
-15.84
-12.57%
TEX
Terex
63.18
28.35
81.42%
Oshkosh Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Oshkosh Expands and Aligns Long-Term Credit Facilities
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Oshkosh Corporation replaced its prior $1.55 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with a new Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement providing a $1.6 billion unsecured revolver maturing in March 2031, with the option...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.