Oshkosh (OSK) AI Stock Analysis

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Oshkosh

(NYSE:OSK)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

$100.00

▼(-1.05%Downside)

Oshkosh's stock demonstrates strong financial performance with solid growth and profitability. However, technical indicators are currently bearish, posing potential risks. The company's valuation is attractive, with a low P/E ratio and decent dividend yield. Despite some headwinds from tariffs and defense segment challenges, the earnings call reflected overall positive sentiment with strategic initiatives to mitigate risks.

Positive Factors

Earnings and Financial Performance

Oshkosh started the year on a strong note with reported adjusted EPS significantly ahead of estimates, driven by higher volumes and improved pricing in the Vocational segment.

Guidance and Projections

Management released guidance for 2025 that is ahead of estimates, providing confidence despite a decline in backlog and bookings.

Vocational Segment Performance

OSK's vocational unit is a clear bright spot with a backlog and solid pricing providing a runway into 2026.

Negative Factors

Access Segment Challenges

Risks exist for the Access segment due to weakening construction dynamics and tariff uncertainty.

Aerial Work Platform Segment

A cautious outlook on Oshkosh's performance is influenced by a downturn in the Aerial Work Platform segment, which constitutes a significant portion of the company's operating profit.

USPS Contract Uncertainty

Shares of Oshkosh Corporation fell 5% due to concerns over potential cancellation of USPS contracts for building a large battery electric vehicle fleet.

Oshkosh (OSK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$6.51B

Dividend Yield1.93%

Average Volume (3M)778.69K

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8

Beta (1Y)1.26

Revenue Growth5.95%

EPS Growth-10.59%

CountryUS

Employees18,000

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength92

IndustryAgricultural - Machinery

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.92

Shares Outstanding64,373,090

10 Day Avg. Volume756,515

30 Day Avg. Volume778,694

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio23.48

Price to Book (P/B)1.49

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio22.61

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$104.20

Price Target Upside3.11% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering12

Oshkosh Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOshkosh Corporation (OSK) is a leading designer, manufacturer, and marketer of specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies. The company operates through several segments, including Access Equipment, Defense, Fire & Emergency, and Commercial. Oshkosh's core products include aerial work platforms, military and tactical vehicles, fire apparatus, and refuse collection vehicles. The company serves a diverse range of customers, including government and municipal entities, the construction industry, and commercial enterprises, providing innovative solutions tailored to meet specific operational needs.

How the Company Makes MoneyOshkosh Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies across its various business segments. The Access Equipment segment, which includes products like aerial work platforms and telehandlers, is a significant revenue generator, serving industries such as construction and maintenance. The Defense segment provides military vehicles and related services, often through contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense, contributing substantially to the company's earnings. The Fire & Emergency segment offers firefighting vehicles and equipment to municipal and industrial fire departments, while the Commercial segment provides refuse collection vehicles and concrete mixers. Oshkosh also benefits from aftermarket parts and services, enhancing its revenue streams by supporting long-term customer relationships. Strategic partnerships and government contracts play a crucial role in the company’s financial success, providing stable and recurring income.

Oshkosh Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 15.12%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong performance and growth in the Vocational and Access segments, with a solid backlog and successful tariff mitigation strategies. However, challenges remain due to the impact of tariffs on earnings, a decline in consolidated sales, and issues in the Defense segment.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Performance in Vocational and Access Segments

The company achieved a robust adjusted operating income margin of nearly 15% in the Vocational segment and a resilient adjusted operating margin of 11.3% in the Access segment despite lower sales.

Revenue Growth in Vocational Segment

The Vocational segment saw strong year-over-year revenue growth of 12%, driven by higher refuse and recycling vehicle sales and strong price realization.

Solid Backlog and New Orders

The company's backlog remains strong, with $1.8 billion in the Access segment and $6.3 billion in the Vocational segment. Notable orders include a multi-year order for 22 conventional Pierce fire trucks for the City of Calgary.

Successful Tariff Mitigation Strategy

The company successfully mitigated European tariffs by localizing production of booms at the Hinowa facility in Italy, moving production from China to Italy in less than a year.

Negative Updates

Tariff Impact on Earnings

The company expects a $1 EPS impact from tariffs, net of targeted mitigation actions, primarily affecting the Access segment.

Decline in Consolidated Sales

Consolidated sales for the first quarter were $2.3 billion, a decrease of $231 million or 9% from the same quarter last year, reflecting softer market conditions for Access equipment in North America.

Defense Segment Challenges

The Defense segment experienced lower volume and higher cumulative catch-up adjustments, resulting in a breakeven performance for the quarter.

Free Cash Flow and Debt

Free cash flow for the quarter was a net use of cash of $435 million due to seasonal working capital needs. The company entered into a new $500 million 24-month term loan to provide additional liquidity.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Oshkosh Corporation reported revenue of $2.3 billion and an adjusted operating income margin of 8.3%. Their adjusted EPS was $1.92, aligning with expectations of approximately $2. The company reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $11, although they acknowledged potential headwinds from recent tariff announcements, estimating a direct impact of about $1 per share, which could be mitigated by up to $0.50 through cost actions. The Vocational segment saw a robust year-over-year revenue growth of 12% with an adjusted operating income margin of nearly 15%, while the Access segment maintained a resilient adjusted operating margin of 11.3%. The Defense segment is on track to ramp up NGDV production to full rate by year-end, promising strong revenue growth in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026. The backlog remained strong, with Access at $1.8 billion and Vocational at $6.3 billion, providing significant visibility for future revenue.

Oshkosh Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Oshkosh shows strong financial performance with significant revenue growth, robust profit margins, and improved leverage. However, cash flow generation could be enhanced further.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Oshkosh has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 11.26% increase from 2023 to 2024. The company's gross profit margin is healthy at 18.35%, and the net profit margin is robust at 6.35% for 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved to 9.42% and 11.39%, respectively, indicating efficient operational management and cost control. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and stable profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.23 in 2024, indicating a strong capital structure with reduced leverage. The equity ratio stands at 44.05%, showing a stable financial position with a significant proportion of assets funded by equity. Return on equity increased to 16.41%, reflecting efficient utilization of shareholders' equity to generate profits. The balance sheet is strong with manageable debt levels and solid equity.

Cash Flow

Positive

Free cash flow experienced a slight decline of 1.89% in 2024, while operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 0.81, indicating good cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is at 0.39, suggesting room for improvement in converting net income to free cash flow. Overall, the cash flow statement shows satisfactory performance, but with potential to enhance free cash flow generation.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
10.73B	9.65B	8.28B	7.74B	6.86B
	Gross Profit
1.97B	1.77B	1.05B	1.22B	1.12B
	EBIT
1.01B	843.80M	372.30M	544.70M	488.70M
	EBITDA
1.22B	988.70M	444.30M	650.10M	602.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
681.40M	598.00M	173.90M	472.70M	324.50M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
204.90M	125.40M	805.90M	1.38B	582.90M
	Total Assets
9.42B	9.13B	7.73B	6.89B	5.82B
	Total Debt
961.80M	1.08B	604.70M	818.80M	823.10M
	Net Debt
756.90M	952.30M	-201.20M	-557.00M	240.20M
	Total Liabilities
5.27B	5.42B	4.54B	3.64B	2.97B
	Stockholders Equity
4.15B	3.71B	3.19B	3.25B	2.85B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
269.10M	274.30M	321.60M	1.11B	197.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
550.10M	599.60M	601.30M	1.22B	327.30M
	Investing Cash Flow
-388.80M	-1.29B	-300.40M	-245.60M	-77.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-75.10M	3.40M	-485.00M	-180.40M	-115.50M

Oshkosh Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price101.06

Price Trends

50DMA

91.60

Positive

100DMA

95.76

Positive

200DMA

99.11

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

3.06

Negative

RSI

63.21

Neutral

STOCH

41.53

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 101.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.68, above the 50-day MA of 91.60, and above the 200-day MA of 99.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OSK.

Oshkosh Risk Analysis

Oshkosh disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oshkosh reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

Changes in trade policies and other factors beyond our control may adversely impact our results. Q4, 2024

Oshkosh Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OSK	76 Outperform	$6.51B	10.80	15.24%	1.93%	5.95%	-10.59%
TEX	75 Outperform	$3.10B	12.87	13.85%	1.52%	-2.78%	-51.72%
LNN	73 Outperform	$1.52B	19.90	15.38%	1.04%	0.46%	12.22%
REVG	73 Outperform	$1.94B	21.16	20.13%	0.59%	-12.16%	-56.14%
ALG	70 Neutral	$2.44B	21.02	11.48%	0.57%	-6.43%	-14.68%
ASTE	66 Neutral	$886.10M	58.92	2.33%	1.34%	1.99%	-39.02%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$4.41B	12.06	5.22%	249.80%	4.09%	-12.16%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

OSK

Oshkosh

101.06

-7.90

-7.25%

ALG

Alamo Group

201.74

15.37

8.25%

ASTE

Astec

39.92

8.64

27.62%

LNN

Lindsay

139.82

29.32

26.53%

TEX

Terex

47.22

-10.16

-17.71%

REVG

REV Group

37.50

12.09

47.58%

Oshkosh Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Oshkosh Finalizes Board Elections and Auditor Approval

Neutral

May 9, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Oshkosh Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where the election results for board directors were finalized. The shareholders elected several directors for terms expiring in 2026 and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, a nonbinding resolution approving the compensation of the company’s named executive officers was passed.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.