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Oshkosh (OSK)
NYSE:OSK

Oshkosh (OSK) AI Stock Analysis

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Oshkosh

(NYSE:OSK)

73Outperform
Oshkosh's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are significant strengths. The company's ability to manage operational challenges and maintain a solid backlog supports its growth prospects. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to bearish trends, and earnings uncertainties from tariffs and the defense segment weigh on the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Financial Guidance
Management released guidance for 2025 that is ahead of estimates, providing confidence despite a decline in backlog and bookings.
Vocational Segment Performance
Oshkosh started the year on a strong note with reported adjusted EPS significantly ahead of estimates, driven by higher volumes and improved pricing in the Vocational segment.
Negative Factors
Access Segment Challenges
A cautious outlook on Oshkosh's performance is influenced by a downturn in the Aerial Work Platform segment, which constitutes a significant portion of the company's operating profit.
USPS Contract Uncertainty
Shares of Oshkosh Corporation fell 5% due to concerns over potential cancellation of USPS contracts for building a large battery electric vehicle fleet.

Oshkosh (OSK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Oshkosh Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies worldwide. The company's Access Equipment segment provides aerial work platforms and telehandlers for use in various construction, industrial, institutional, and general maintenance applications. This segment also offers rental fleet loans and leases, and floor plan and retail financing through third-party funding arrangements; towing and recovery equipment; carriers and wreckers; equipment installation services; and chassis and service parts sales. Its Defense segment provides heavy, medium, and light tactical wheeled vehicles and related services for the department of defense. The company's Fire & Emergency segment offers custom and commercial firefighting vehicles and equipment; and commercial fire apparatus and emergency vehicles, such as pumpers, aerial platform, ladder and tiller trucks, tankers, rescue vehicles, wild land rough terrain response vehicles, mobile command and control centers, bomb squad vehicles, hazardous materials control vehicles, and other emergency response vehicles. This segment also provides aircraft rescue and firefighting, snow removal, and broadcast vehicles, as well as command trucks, and military simulator shelters and trailers. Its Commercial segment offers front-and rear-discharge concrete mixers for the concrete ready-mix industry; refuse collection vehicles and related components to commercial and municipal waste haulers; and field service vehicles and truck-mounted cranes for the construction, equipment dealer, building supply, utility, tire service, railroad, and mining industries. Oshkosh Corporation provides its products through direct sales representatives, dealers, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Oshkosh Truck Corporation and changed its name to Oshkosh Corporation in February 2008. Oshkosh Corporation was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyOshkosh Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies across its various business segments. The Access Equipment segment, which includes products like aerial work platforms and telehandlers, is a significant revenue generator, serving industries such as construction and maintenance. The Defense segment provides military vehicles and related services, often through contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense, contributing substantially to the company's earnings. The Fire & Emergency segment offers firefighting vehicles and equipment to municipal and industrial fire departments, while the Commercial segment provides refuse collection vehicles and concrete mixers. Oshkosh also benefits from aftermarket parts and services, enhancing its revenue streams by supporting long-term customer relationships. Strategic partnerships and government contracts play a crucial role in the company’s financial success, providing stable and recurring income.

Oshkosh Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Oshkosh shows strong financial performance with significant revenue growth, robust profit margins, and improved leverage. However, cash flow generation could be enhanced further.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Oshkosh has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 11.26% increase from 2023 to 2024. The company's gross profit margin is healthy at 18.35%, and the net profit margin is robust at 6.35% for 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved to 9.42% and 11.39%, respectively, indicating efficient operational management and cost control. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and stable profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.23 in 2024, indicating a strong capital structure with reduced leverage. The equity ratio stands at 44.05%, showing a stable financial position with a significant proportion of assets funded by equity. Return on equity increased to 16.41%, reflecting efficient utilization of shareholders' equity to generate profits. The balance sheet is strong with manageable debt levels and solid equity.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Free cash flow experienced a slight decline of 1.89% in 2024, while operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 0.81, indicating good cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is at 0.39, suggesting room for improvement in converting net income to free cash flow. Overall, the cash flow statement shows satisfactory performance, but with potential to enhance free cash flow generation.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
10.73B9.65B8.28B7.74B6.86B
Gross Profit
1.97B1.77B1.05B1.22B1.12B
EBIT
1.01B843.80M372.30M544.70M488.70M
EBITDA
1.22B988.70M444.30M650.10M602.60M
Net Income Common Stockholders
681.40M598.00M173.90M472.70M324.50M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
204.90M125.40M805.90M1.38B582.90M
Total Assets
9.42B9.13B7.73B6.89B5.82B
Total Debt
961.80M1.08B604.70M818.80M823.10M
Net Debt
756.90M952.30M-201.20M-557.00M240.20M
Total Liabilities
5.27B5.42B4.54B3.64B2.97B
Stockholders Equity
4.15B3.71B3.19B3.25B2.85B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
269.10M274.30M321.60M1.11B197.10M
Operating Cash Flow
550.10M599.60M601.30M1.22B327.30M
Investing Cash Flow
-388.80M-1.29B-300.40M-245.60M-77.60M
Financing Cash Flow
-75.10M3.40M-485.00M-180.40M-115.50M

Oshkosh Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price89.39
Price Trends
50DMA
92.97
Negative
100DMA
96.54
Negative
200DMA
100.48
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.78
Negative
RSI
46.79
Neutral
STOCH
58.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 89.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.21, below the 50-day MA of 92.97, and below the 200-day MA of 100.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OSK.

Oshkosh Risk Analysis

Oshkosh disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oshkosh reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Oshkosh Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ALALG
75
Outperform
$2.10B18.0611.88%0.66%-3.62%-15.20%
TETEX
74
Outperform
$2.41B7.3519.13%1.93%-0.47%-34.74%
OSOSK
73
Outperform
$5.56B8.3115.24%2.26%11.36%13.78%
LNLNN
73
Outperform
$1.38B18.1415.38%1.11%0.46%12.22%
73
Outperform
$1.73B18.8920.13%0.67%-12.16%-56.14%
66
Neutral
$854.77M56.832.33%1.44%1.99%-39.02%
63
Neutral
$4.21B11.555.28%250.72%4.13%-9.42%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OSK
Oshkosh
89.39
-23.06
-20.51%
ALG
Alamo Group
173.96
-18.78
-9.74%
ASTE
Astec
38.13
6.23
19.53%
LNN
Lindsay
132.76
15.84
13.55%
TEX
Terex
39.83
-17.75
-30.83%
REVG
REV Group
35.02
11.95
51.80%

Oshkosh Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 1.30%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong performance and growth in the Vocational and Access segments, with a solid backlog and successful tariff mitigation strategies. However, challenges remain due to the impact of tariffs on earnings, a decline in consolidated sales, and issues in the Defense segment.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Performance in Vocational and Access Segments
The company achieved a robust adjusted operating income margin of nearly 15% in the Vocational segment and a resilient adjusted operating margin of 11.3% in the Access segment despite lower sales.
Revenue Growth in Vocational Segment
The Vocational segment saw strong year-over-year revenue growth of 12%, driven by higher refuse and recycling vehicle sales and strong price realization.
Solid Backlog and New Orders
The company's backlog remains strong, with $1.8 billion in the Access segment and $6.3 billion in the Vocational segment. Notable orders include a multi-year order for 22 conventional Pierce fire trucks for the City of Calgary.
Successful Tariff Mitigation Strategy
The company successfully mitigated European tariffs by localizing production of booms at the Hinowa facility in Italy, moving production from China to Italy in less than a year.
Negative Updates
Tariff Impact on Earnings
The company expects a $1 EPS impact from tariffs, net of targeted mitigation actions, primarily affecting the Access segment.
Decline in Consolidated Sales
Consolidated sales for the first quarter were $2.3 billion, a decrease of $231 million or 9% from the same quarter last year, reflecting softer market conditions for Access equipment in North America.
Defense Segment Challenges
The Defense segment experienced lower volume and higher cumulative catch-up adjustments, resulting in a breakeven performance for the quarter.
Free Cash Flow and Debt
Free cash flow for the quarter was a net use of cash of $435 million due to seasonal working capital needs. The company entered into a new $500 million 24-month term loan to provide additional liquidity.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Oshkosh Corporation reported revenue of $2.3 billion and an adjusted operating income margin of 8.3%. Their adjusted EPS was $1.92, aligning with expectations of approximately $2. The company reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $11, although they acknowledged potential headwinds from recent tariff announcements, estimating a direct impact of about $1 per share, which could be mitigated by up to $0.50 through cost actions. The Vocational segment saw a robust year-over-year revenue growth of 12% with an adjusted operating income margin of nearly 15%, while the Access segment maintained a resilient adjusted operating margin of 11.3%. The Defense segment is on track to ramp up NGDV production to full rate by year-end, promising strong revenue growth in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026. The backlog remained strong, with Access at $1.8 billion and Vocational at $6.3 billion, providing significant visibility for future revenue.

Oshkosh Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Oshkosh Names Matthew Field as New CFO
Neutral
Dec 2, 2024

Oshkosh Corporation announced the appointment of Matthew Field as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective December 16, 2024. Field, who previously held senior financial roles at Joby Aviation and Ford Motor Company, brings extensive experience in the automotive and aviation sectors. He will receive a competitive compensation package, including a base salary, incentives, and equity awards, along with a sign-on bonus and restricted stock units, as he transitions from his previous role.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.