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Oshkosh (OSK)
NYSE:OSK
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Oshkosh
(NYSE:OSK)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$186.00
â–²(7.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial strength (healthy profitability with conservative leverage, though 2025 was mixed and cash flows have been volatile) and strong technical uptrend signals. Valuation is reasonable but not deeply discounted, and the latest guidance is constructive yet tempered by meaningful tariff pressure, Access softness, and near-term margin/earnings volatility.
Positive Factors
Vocational backlog & revenue strength
A >$6.6B vocational backlog and double-digit vocational revenue growth provide durable revenue visibility and high-margin work. This backlog supports production planning, margins and multi-year cash flow conversion in municipal and specialty vehicle markets, underpinning medium-term earnings.
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a growing asset base give the company financial flexibility to fund NGDV ramp, fund R&D, and sustain buybacks/dividends. Conservative capitalization reduces refinancing risk and supports resilience through tariff or cyclical industry shocks over the coming months.
Improved cash generation & disciplined capital returns
Stronger 2025 operating and free cash flow and committed buybacks/dividend indicate healthy cash conversion and shareholder discipline. Predictable FCF guidance and prior repurchases support ongoing capital allocation while funding NGDV/innovation investments without stressing the balance sheet.
Negative Factors
Tariff headwinds
A persistent ~$200M tariff drag is a structural margin headwind that reduces operating income unless absorbed via pricing, re‑engineering, or cost cuts. The uncertainty around tariff policy forces potential re-pricing, supply chain shifts, and capital expenditure that can depress medium-term margins and returns.
Access segment weakness and seasonality
A material decline in Access sales and near-term Q1 weakness trims revenue diversification and reduces capacity utilization. Given Access's scale, persistent softness can pressure margins and cash conversion, increasing earnings volatility and making execution on corporate targets more dependent on other segments.
Margin volatility from NGDV ramp & product mix
NGDV production ramp, fixed-price contract transitions and adverse product mix have compressed margins and caused quarter-to-quarter volatility. While management expects improvement over time, backloaded gains increase execution risk and make short-to-medium term cash flow and profitability less predictable.
Oshkosh (OSK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.13B
Dividend Yield1.56%
Average Volume (3M)868.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.8
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth-2.28%
EPS Growth-0.53%
CountryUS
Employees18,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAgricultural - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.26
Shares Outstanding62,548,630
10 Day Avg. Volume759,180
30 Day Avg. Volume868,137
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio13.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.15
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$165.54Price Target Upside-3.98% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)11.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.94B
Oshkosh Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies worldwide. The company's Access Equipment segment provides aerial work platforms and telehandlers for use in various construction, industrial, institutional, and general maintenance applications. This segment also offers rental fleet loans and leases, and floor plan and retail financing through third-party funding arrangements; towing and recovery equipment; carriers and wreckers; equipment installation services; and chassis and service parts sales. Its Defense segment provides heavy, medium, and light tactical wheeled vehicles and related services for the department of defense. The company's Fire & Emergency segment offers custom and commercial firefighting vehicles and equipment; and commercial fire apparatus and emergency vehicles, such as pumpers, aerial platform, ladder and tiller trucks, tankers, rescue vehicles, wild land rough terrain response vehicles, mobile command and control centers, bomb squad vehicles, hazardous materials control vehicles, and other emergency response vehicles. This segment also provides aircraft rescue and firefighting, snow removal, and broadcast vehicles, as well as command trucks, and military simulator shelters and trailers. Its Commercial segment offers front-and rear-discharge concrete mixers for the concrete ready-mix industry; refuse collection vehicles and related components to commercial and municipal waste haulers; and field service vehicles and truck-mounted cranes for the construction, equipment dealer, building supply, utility, tire service, railroad, and mining industries. Oshkosh Corporation provides its products through direct sales representatives, dealers, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Oshkosh Truck Corporation and changed its name to Oshkosh Corporation in February 2008. Oshkosh Corporation was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyOshkosh generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling specialty vehicles and equipment to government and commercial customers. The Defense segment is a significant revenue driver, as the company manufactures tactical wheeled vehicles for military applications, benefiting from government contracts and defense budgets. The Access Equipment segment contributes through the sale of aerial work platforms, which are used in construction and maintenance industries. Additionally, the Commercial segment focuses on producing vehicles for municipal and industrial applications, such as refuse collection and concrete mixing. Oshkosh also earns revenue through aftermarket parts and services, providing ongoing support for its products. Strategic partnerships with government entities, construction firms, and municipalities enhance its market reach and contribute to consistent revenue growth.
Oshkosh Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of encouraging operational and technological progress alongside near-term headwinds. Strengths include solid full-year revenue and EPS, robust vocational growth with a large backlog, transport production milestones and NGDV deployment, product innovation recognition at CES, disciplined capital allocation (repurchases and dividend), and a modestly improved 2026 consolidated outlook (~$11B sales and ~$11.50 EPS). Offsetting these positives are persistent tariff pressures (~$200M incremental in 2026), expected softness in the Access market (guide implies Access down ~6–7% and a weak Q1), Q4 margin compression (down 100 bps), NGDV ramp costs and mix-related volatility in vocational/refuse. Management expects the back half of 2026 to improve, but near-term earnings and margin volatility are likely. On balance, the positives (revenue/profitability, strong vocational momentum, technology awards, cash returns) modestly outweigh the lowlights, with the company maintaining a constructive multi-year view while acknowledging near-term risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Profitability
Fiscal 2025 revenue of $10.4 billion, adjusted operating income just over $1.0 billion, and adjusted EPS of $10.79 — results in line with guidance and supporting 2028 targets.
Q4 Consolidated Growth
Fourth quarter sales of ~$2.7 billion, up $91 million or 3.5% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $2.26 and adjusted operating margin of 8.4% (in line with prior guidance).
Vocational Segment Strength
Vocational full-year revenue > $3.7 billion, up nearly 13% year-over-year; robust adjusted operating margin of ~15.8% (Q4 vocational margin 16.2%). Fire apparatus sales up ~17% for the year and deliveries increased nearly 10% in H2 vs. a year ago; vocational backlog > $6.6 billion.
Transport Production Progress and Milestones
Transport Q4 sales $567 million (up $33 million), delivery vehicle revenue grew to $165 million and represented ~30% of transport revenue; surpassed 5,000 NGDV production milestone and fleet exceeded 10 million miles driven; NGDVs deployed in nearly all 50 states.
Order Momentum & Backlog in Access
Access Q4 orders > $1.7 billion with book-to-bill of 1.5 and backlog of $1.3 billion (backlog in the 3–6 month demand range), demonstrating strong customer reengagement and seasonal ordering normalization.
Technology Recognition and Product Innovation
Showcased robotics, autonomy, AI and electrification at CES; won two 'Best of Innovation' awards and additional innovation honors (including CAMS receiving a CES Picks award); demonstrated concepts for autonomous welding, airport robots, autonomous jet dock and AI-powered refuse contamination detection to be launched in Q1.
Capital Allocation and Cash Generation
Q4 share repurchases of 912,000 shares for $119 million; announced quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share; full-year free cash flow guidance for 2026 of $550–$650 million (~80% of net income) and continued repurchases planned.
2026 Consolidated Outlook
Management expects 2026 consolidated sales of ~ $11 billion (mid-single digit growth), adjusted operating income slightly above $1 billion, and adjusted EPS of ~ $11.50 (improvement from $10.79), with the second half expected to be stronger.
Negative Updates
Tariff Headwinds
Estimated incremental tariff impact for 2026 of about $200 million (approximately $160 million higher than 2025); Q4 tariff impact ~ $25 million across segments (about $20 million in Access). Guidance assumes current tariff rates remain in place.
Access Segment Near-Term Softness
Access expected to face weaker market conditions in 2026; management forecasts Access sales of ~ $4.2 billion (down ~6–7% year-over-year) and expects Q1 to be the weakest quarter — Q1 adjusted EPS could be roughly half of last year due in part to sales pull-forward and seasonality.
Q4 Margin Pressure
Adjusted operating income in Q4 was $226 million, down ~ $20 million YoY, producing an adjusted operating margin of 8.4%, down 100 basis points year-over-year, driven by unfavorable product mix and higher manufacturing overhead.
Refuse & Recycling Near-Term Moderation
Refuse and recycling vehicle demand moderated in the near term despite long-term confidence; company plans to launch contamination detection tech but expects near-term volume pressure in this end market.
Transport Segment Launch and Mix Costs
Transport operating margin remains low at ~4% (up from 2.8% prior year) due to NGDV ramp-up costs, transition from fixed-price contracts, lower defense export volume (domestic JLTV wind-down), and launch/engineering investments; margin improvement expected over time but backloaded.
Product Mix Variability in Vocational
Vocational Q4 experienced adverse product mix within municipal fire apparatus that reduced margin contribution in the quarter (described as periodic/snowflake orders), highlighting volatility in that product mix.
First Half 2026 Seasonal/Timing Risks
Management expects first-half 2026 to be weaker (seasonality and pricing pull-forward effects) with improved performance concentrated in second half — this timing creates near-term earnings volatility.
Uncertainty Around Tariff Outcomes
Guidance assumes current tariffs remain; potential legal or policy changes (e.g., AI EPA outcomes) could create uncertainty that would require re-pricing or further engineering/migration efforts.
Company Guidance
Oshkosh guided 2026 consolidated sales of about $11.0 billion (mid‑single‑digit growth) with adjusted operating income a little over $1.0 billion and adjusted EPS of roughly $11.50, assuming current tariff rates (estimated ~$200 million impact, about $160 million higher than 2025) remain in place; they expect Q1 EPS to be roughly half of last year with a stronger second half. By segment they forecast Access sales of ~$4.2 billion with a ~10% adjusted operating margin (expecting to offset tariffs by year‑end), Vocational sales of ~$4.2 billion with ~17% margin, and Transport sales of ~$2.5 billion with ~4% margin (NGDV representing about half of Transport revenue and ramping through the year). Corporate and other costs are estimated at ~$180 million, the effective tax rate ~24.5%, CapEx ~ $200 million, and free cash flow ~$550–$650 million (~80% of net income); the company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share, will continue share repurchases, and reiterated its 2028 adjusted EPS target of $18–$22 (with Transport margin progress toward ~10% by 2028).Oshkosh Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are solid overall: profitability and ROE improved meaningfully versus 2022 and leverage remains conservative. Offsets are a 2025 revenue decline vs. 2024, slight margin compression, and a volatile/uneven cash flow history despite improved 2025 OCF/FCF.Income Statement
Revenue scale is solid, with strong multi-year growth from 2021–2024, but 2025 revenue slipped versus 2024. Profitability has improved meaningfully versus 2022 (net margin ~2.1% in 2022 to ~6.2% in 2025), and operating profitability is healthy for the group (2025 operating margin ~9.2%, EBITDA margin ~11.4%). The key watch-out is modest margin compression in 2025 versus 2024 (gross, operating, and net margins all slightly lower), suggesting cost or mix pressure.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks conservative and stable, with debt-to-equity around ~0.21–0.26 across 2021–2025 and 2025 total debt (~$1.10B) well supported by a larger equity base (~$4.53B). The balance sheet has also grown (assets up from ~$6.85B in 2021 to ~$10.07B in 2025), indicating expanded capacity/operations. Returns on equity are strong in 2023–2025 (~14%–16%) but remain below the 2024 peak and well above the weaker 2022 level, implying improved but not fully consistent earnings efficiency.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive and improved in 2025, with operating cash flow rising to ~$783M and free cash flow up to ~$618M. Free cash flow quality versus earnings is good in 2025 (free cash flow about ~79% of net income), and markedly better than 2023–2024. The main weakness is volatility: free cash flow growth is negative in multiple years (including a sharp drop in 2025 vs 2024), and cash conversion versus reported earnings appears uneven (operating cash flow relative to net income remains low in the provided data), which increases uncertainty around consistency of cash returns.63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 10.42B | 10.73B | 9.66B | 8.28B | 7.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.76B | 1.97B | 1.68B | 1.05B | 1.27B |
| EBITDA | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.03B | 436.60M | 697.50M |
| Net Income | 647.00M | 681.40M | 598.00M | 173.90M | 508.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.07B | 9.42B | 9.13B | 7.73B | 6.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 479.80M | 204.90M | 125.40M | 805.90M | 995.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.54B | 961.80M | 772.50M | 604.70M | 819.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.54B | 5.27B | 5.42B | 4.54B | 3.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.53B | 4.15B | 3.71B | 3.19B | 3.20B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 618.00M | 269.10M | 274.30M | 331.80M | 1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 783.40M | 550.10M | 599.60M | 601.30M | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -204.90M | -388.80M | -1.29B | -300.40M | -245.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -315.90M | -75.10M | 3.40M | -485.00M | -180.40M |
Oshkosh Technical Analysis
Positive
172.40
Price Trends
150.13
Positive
138.91
Positive
130.34
Positive
Market Momentum
7.32
Positive
60.70
Neutral
72.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 172.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.61, above the 50-day MA of 150.13, and above the 200-day MA of 130.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OSK.
Oshkosh Risk Analysis
Oshkosh disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oshkosh reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oshkosh Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $11.13B | 17.75 | 14.90% | 1.56% | -2.28% | -0.53% | |
70 Outperform | $2.61B | 22.31 | 10.82% | 0.69% | -2.73% | -2.91% | |
70 Outperform | $1.42B | 20.10 | 14.61% | 1.24% | 11.41% | 13.05% | |
67 Neutral | $7.83B | 20.66 | 11.26% | 1.24% | 4.60% | -65.73% | |
64 Neutral | $9.84B | 13.92 | 18.13% | 1.10% | -20.09% | 121.28% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $15.89B | 31.27 | 6.61% | 2.67% | -18.10% | -65.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
OSK
Oshkosh
172.40
72.69
72.90%
AGCO
Agco
133.92
37.50
38.89%
ALG
Alamo Group
213.09
30.03
16.41%
CNH
CNH Industrial
12.35
-0.15
-1.20%
LNN
Lindsay
134.20
2.82
2.14%
TEX
Terex
68.19
27.46
67.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.