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Oshkosh
(NYSE:OSK)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$167.00
▲(12.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance—especially strong free cash flow and low leverage—partly offset by margin compression. Technicals are bearish with the stock trading below key moving averages, and valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E relative to a modest dividend. Earnings-call commentary is balanced: strong backlog and maintained guidance support the outlook, but Q1 profitability weakness and a back-half recovery profile elevate execution risk.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, high-quality cash generation (TTM FCF ~$0.85B and strong YoY FCF growth) provides durable funding for capital investment, backlog fulfillment, buybacks, and working capital. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports resilience through demand cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Margin compression / operating income decline
A sharp, material drop in operating income reflects persistent margin pressure from adverse mix, higher overhead and lower volumes. If mix or cost pressures continue, margin recovery may be slow, weighing on sustainable profitability and returns even with back-end recovery plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, high-quality cash generation (TTM FCF ~$0.85B and strong YoY FCF growth) provides durable funding for capital investment, backlog fulfillment, buybacks, and working capital. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports resilience through demand cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Oshkosh Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Oshkosh (OSK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.90B
Dividend Yield1.56%
Average Volume (3M)850.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.8
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth-0.92%
EPS Growth-4.01%
CountryUS
Employees18,033
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.03
Shares Outstanding62,351,310
10 Day Avg. Volume617,080
30 Day Avg. Volume850,705
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio13.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$161.70Price Target Upside9.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)10.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.96B
Oshkosh Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Oshkosh Corporation provides purpose-built vehicles and equipment worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Access, Vocational, and Transport segment. The Access segment designs and manufactures aerial work platform and telehandlers ...
How the Company Makes Money
Oshkosh makes money primarily by selling specialty vehicles and access equipment to government and commercial customers, supplemented by aftermarket parts and service revenue. Its revenue model is largely project- and order-driven: customers (such...
Oshkosh Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Neutral — The quarter showed clear operational and margin challenges (adjusted operating income down ~50%, shipment shortfalls, tariff uncertainty and negative Q1 free cash flow) but was offset by meaningful positives: robust order intake (Access book-to-bill 1.6), sizable backlogs (Vocational $6.6B, Access $1.8B, AeroTech multi-month backlog), NGDV ramp progress, product and technology momentum, improved working capital vs prior year, and the company maintaining full-year EPS ($11.50) and free cash flow ($550M–$650M) guidance. The positives provide a credible path to recovery, but near-term execution and macro/tariff risks keep the assessment balanced.Positive Updates
Consolidated Sales Stable
Consolidated sales of approximately $2.3 billion in Q1, essentially flat year-over-year, with pricing and favorable currency largely offsetting lower volume.
Negative Updates
Adjusted Operating Income Decline
Adjusted operating income fell to $96 million in Q1 from $192 million a year ago, a decline of roughly 50%, driven by unfavorable mix, higher overhead and lower volume.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Sales Stable
Consolidated sales of approximately $2.3 billion in Q1, essentially flat year-over-year, with pricing and favorable currency largely offsetting lower volume.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained full‑year adjusted EPS guidance of $11.50 and a free cash flow target of $550–$650 million, noting roughly 30% of earnings are expected in H1 (implying ~70% in H2) and expecting improved price/cost and production in the back half; they reiterated NGDV full‑year production guidance of 16,000–20,000 units (planning for the low end), expect fire truck production throughput to be up roughly 10% year‑over‑year, and see continued tariff neutrality with a full‑year IEEPA/Cape‑1 benefit of about $23 million (≈$13.5M recognized in Q1). First‑quarter metrics referenced alongside the guidance include consolidated sales of ~$2.3 billion, adjusted EPS $0.85, adjusted operating income $96 million, free cash flow of –$189 million (improved from –$435M a year ago), a $47 million share repurchase (≈300k shares), a $1.6 billion revolving credit facility, Access book‑to‑bill of 1.6 and backlog of $1.8 billion, Vocational backlog of $6.6 billion, Transport sales of $513 million with Delivery Vehicle revenue of $217 million (42% of Transport) and Jetway backlog extending beyond 12 months.Oshkosh Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.43B | 10.42B | 10.73B | 9.66B | 8.28B | 7.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.72B | 1.76B | 1.97B | 1.68B | 1.05B | 1.27B |
| EBITDA | 1.10B | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.03B | 436.60M | 697.50M |
| Net Income | 577.90M | 647.00M | 681.40M | 598.00M | 173.90M | 508.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.96B | 10.07B | 9.42B | 9.13B | 7.73B | 6.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 250.30M | 479.80M | 204.90M | 125.40M | 805.90M | 995.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.15B | 1.54B | 961.80M | 772.50M | 604.70M | 819.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.49B | 5.54B | 5.27B | 5.42B | 4.54B | 3.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.47B | 4.53B | 4.15B | 3.71B | 3.19B | 3.20B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 848.50M | 618.00M | 269.10M | 274.30M | 331.80M | 1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.02B | 783.40M | 550.10M | 599.60M | 601.30M | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -160.70M | -204.90M | -388.80M | -1.29B | -300.40M | -245.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -822.50M | -315.90M | -75.10M | 3.40M | -485.00M | -180.40M |
Oshkosh Technical Analysis
Positive
147.87
Price Trends
138.60
Positive
147.53
Negative
140.70
Positive
Market Momentum
3.65
Negative
52.49
Neutral
52.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 147.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 139.90, above the 50-day MA of 138.60, and above the 200-day MA of 140.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OSK.
Oshkosh Risk Analysis
Oshkosh disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oshkosh reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oshkosh Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.27B | 23.31 | 11.28% | 1.24% | -7.37% | -25.20% | |
68 Neutral | $8.90B | 15.80 | 12.85% | 1.56% | -0.92% | -4.01% | |
67 Neutral | $7.78B | 40.33 | 3.93% | 1.24% | 17.03% | -43.69% | |
64 Neutral | $2.07B | 20.24 | 8.86% | 0.69% | 2.26% | -12.86% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $8.43B | 11.22 | 17.90% | 1.10% | -3.80% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $13.29B | 34.73 | 4.99% | 2.67% | -4.04% | -62.88% |
* Industrials Sector Average
OSK
Oshkosh
142.70
19.53
15.86%
AGCO
Agco
116.49
9.01
8.38%
ALG
Alamo Group
170.25
-53.44
-23.89%
CNH
CNH Industrial
10.72
-2.62
-19.65%
LNN
Lindsay
122.12
-22.07
-15.31%
TEX
Terex
68.16
19.71
40.67%
Oshkosh Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Oshkosh shareholders back board, pay and governance direction
Positive
May 8, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 5, 2026, Oshkosh Corporation shareholders elected all nominated directors to serve terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting, signaling broad investor support for the current board slate and g...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.