OneSpan (OSPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $413.64M
• Dividend Yield: 3.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 624.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: -1.43%
• EPS Growth: 101.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 465
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 38,027,122
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 436,831
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 624,408
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.06
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $244.75M

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(14.34% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance and a very low-leverage balance sheet, supported by an attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend yield). Offsetting these positives are weaker technical trends and an earnings-call outlook that included lowered revenue/ARR guidance and hardware decline, which tempers near-term confidence despite strong profitability.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet / low leverage

Very low debt (debt-to-equity ~2% in 2025) materially reduces refinancing and solvency risk, giving OneSpan flexibility to fund strategic M&A, R&D, and shareholder returns from internal resources. This financial conservatism supports durable operations and capital allocation over the medium term.

Strong cash generation and free cash flow

Sustained operating cash flow and FCF in 2024–2025 furnish internal funding for product investment, integration of acquisitions (e.g., Nok Nok / pending Build38), and shareholder returns without heavy external financing. Reliable cash generation supports strategic optionality and resilience across cycles.

Shift to recurring software revenue and ARR growth

A software-heavy mix (>80%) with double-digit subscription and ARR growth increases revenue predictability and lifetime value, reducing reliance on one-time hardware sales. Strategic acquisitions (Nok Nok, ThreatFabric investment, pending Build38) strengthen product capabilities and recurring revenue durability.

Negative Factors

Revenue and ARR guidance revision; hardware decline

Management lowered full-year revenue and ARR guidance while reporting a meaningful decline in hardware (shift to mobile-first auth). This erodes near-term top-line visibility and reveals transition risk: legacy hardware shrinkage may outpace software upsell in some segments, pressuring growth.

Inconsistent cash conversion

Although FCF turned positive, operating cash equaling only ~50% of net income signals working-capital swings or non-cash items impacting cash realization. This inconsistency raises risk that reported earnings may not reliably convert to cash during expansion, M&A integration, or downturns.

Cyclical profitability and prior multi-year losses

The rapid swing from multi-year losses and negative cash flow to high margins and ROE suggests performance is cyclical. Such volatility implies current profitability may not be fully normalized, increasing the risk that earnings and returns could revert if growth, renewals, or market conditions weaken.

OneSpan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

OneSpan Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets digital solutions for identity, security, and business productivity worldwide. The company offers OneSpan Sign, a range of e-signature requirements for occasional agreement to processing tens of thousands of transactions; OneSpan Cloud Authentication, a cloud-based multifactor authentication solution that supports a range of authentication options, including biometrics, push notification, and visual cryptograms for transaction data signing, SMS, and hardware authenticators; and OneSpan Identity Verification, which enables banks and financial institutions identity verification services. It also provides Mobile Security Suite, a software development kit; Mobile Authenticator Studio, a mobile authenticator that operates as a discrete mobile application; and authentication servers, which enables customers to administer a high level of access control. In addition, it offers Trusted Identity Platform, a cloud platform that simplify and secure user journeys; Intelligent Adaptive Authentication; and Risk Analytics, a comprehensive anti-fraud solution. It sells its solutions through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, resellers, systems integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was formerly known as VASCO Data Security International, Inc. and changed its name to OneSpan Inc. in May 2018. OneSpan Inc. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. OneSpan Inc. was a former subsidiary of Guidewire Software, Inc.

How the Company Makes Money

OneSpan generates revenue through a combination of software licensing, subscription services, and professional services. Its primary revenue streams come from the sale of its authentication and e-signature products, which can be licensed on a one-time basis or through recurring subscription models. Additionally, the company offers professional services, including implementation and support, which contribute to its earnings. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and technology providers enhance its market reach and provide steady revenue through integrated solutions. The demand for secure digital transactions and compliance with regulatory standards further drives OneSpan's growth and profitability.

OneSpan Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial results show a clear inflection: profitability and margins improved materially in 2024–2025 with strong net margins and solid free cash flow, supported by a conservatively financed balance sheet with very low leverage. The main risk is durability given prior multi-year losses/negative cash flow and ongoing volatility in operating trends.

Income Statement

Revenue has recovered from earlier declines and is now stable at roughly $243M in 2024–2025, with a sharp step-up shown in 2025 (reported ~72% growth). Profitability improved meaningfully: net margin moved from losses in 2021–2023 to strong profitability in 2024–2025 (about 23% to 30%), and gross margin expanded to ~74% in 2025. The main weakness is volatility across years—loss-making operations as recently as 2023 and mixed operating profit trends, which raises confidence risk around the durability of the current earnings level.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively financed with very low debt (debt-to-equity ~2% in 2025 and ~4% in 2024), which reduces financial risk and provides flexibility. Equity has grown to ~$272M in 2025 from ~$159M in 2023, and returns on equity are strong in 2024–2025 (~27%). The key watch-out is the sharp swing from negative returns on equity in 2021–2023 to very strong returns recently, implying performance has been cyclical and may not be fully normalized.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has turned solid in 2024–2025, with operating cash flow of ~$56–59M and free cash flow of ~$46–50M, showing strong growth versus the negative cash flows in 2021–2023. Free cash flow is also relatively well-supported versus earnings (free cash flow running at ~83%–85% of net income in 2024–2025). The main weakness is conversion consistency: operating cash flow is only about half of net income in 2024–2025, suggesting working-capital or non-cash items are meaningfully affecting cash realization, and the company had multiple years of negative operating/free cash flow before the recent improvement.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	243.18M	243.18M	235.11M	219.01M	214.48M
Gross Profit	179.35M	174.58M	157.72M	148.57M	142.94M
EBITDA	59.43M	57.61M	-5.08M	-6.74M	-17.20M
Net Income	72.90M	57.08M	-29.80M	-14.43M	-30.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	397.70M	338.73M	289.19M	335.08M	342.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	70.50M	83.16M	42.49M	98.83M	98.49M
Total Debt	6.14M	9.28M	6.82M	10.70M	10.18M
Total Liabilities	125.86M	126.20M	130.05M	131.77M	122.49M
Stockholders Equity	271.84M	212.53M	159.14M	203.31M	219.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	50.49M	46.42M	-23.28M	-10.78M	-4.95M
Operating Cash Flow	59.45M	55.67M	-10.73M	-5.76M	-2.75M
Investing Cash Flow	-35.58M	-9.30M	-12.01M	46.59M	-10.98M
Financing Cash Flow	-38.42M	-5.24M	-32.09M	-7.31M	-10.39M

OneSpan Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.37
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.21, below the 50-day MA of 12.00, and below the 200-day MA of 14.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OSPN.

OneSpan Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OSPN	76 Outperform	$413.64M	7.48	26.86%	3.75%	-1.43%	101.80%
NTCT	71 Outperform	$2.11B	22.41	6.07%	―	9.60%	―
ATEN	70 Outperform	$1.38B	33.64	19.01%	1.33%	10.27%	3.52%
CGNT	63 Neutral	$517.84M	-91.37	―	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
OKTA	60 Neutral	$12.85B	66.56	2.96%	―	12.12%	―